Galia Sharifullina (Salavat, Russia)

The risk is inherent in any form of human activity, which is associated with many conditions and factors affecting the positive outcome of decision-made solutions. Historical experience shows that the risk of miscalculation of the outlined results is especially manifested with the generalness of commodity-money relations, competition of participants in economic turnover. Therefore, with the emergence and development capitalist relations Different risk theories appear, and classics economic theory Pay great attention to the study of risk problems in economic activity.

In the course of its activities, commercial banks are subject to multiple risks. In general, bank risks are divided into 4 categories: financial, operational, business and emergency. Financial risks in turn include 2 types of risks: clean and speculative. Pure risks - incl. credit risk, liquidity and solvency risks - can lead to a loss of bank in improper management. Speculative risks based on financial arbitration may result in their result, if the arbitration is carried out correctly, or loss - otherwise. The main types of speculative risk are the interest, currency and market (or positional) risks.

It should be noted that commercial banks deal with financial assets and liabilities (loans and deposits) that cannot be easily implemented on the market, as promotions, bonds and other securities. As a result, credit organizations face increased risk compared to non-banking institutions. This manifests itself in the fact that along with the means of its shareholders, the bank also includes increased risks for attracted funds, but in the case of a risky event, will respond with its own means, which is an objective factor requiring accounting. On the other hand, banks in their activities take into account the subjective factors, among which is crucially given to the expert opinion of analysts, the purpose of which is to use accessible information, given the risk factors, determine economical effect from a banking operation.

The basis for the functioning of an effective financial risk management system is their classification.

· Credit risk

· Risk of liquidity imbalance

· Market risk

· Percentage risk

· Risk of lacking profit

· The risk of insolvency

To other important types of risk Rose P. refers four more types, which it determines as follows:

· Inflationary risk

· Currency risk

· Political risk

· Risk of abuse

The advantage of this classification is that this system includes both risks that occur within the bank and risks, which are emerging outside the bank and affect its activities. At the same time, such a classification cannot be used by commercial banks for practical use in view of its consolidation, and therefore, a more detailed classification is needed with the allocation of groups and subgroups of risk, depending on the specifics of the operations conducted by the Bank

The main documents that are guided by the risk managers of Western companies in practical activity are developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and are called banking supervisory principles. This document contains 25 principles, the implementation of which is called upon by the minimum prerequisite ensuring efficient banking supervision. Comments on these principles are based on the recommendations of the Basel Committee and the best international Practice in the field of banking and banking supervision. Integration of Russian banking financial statements with International standards Financial Reporting (IFRS) will undoubtedly be developed to develop these principles in Russian practice.

International auditing companies operating in Russia, on the basis of the recommendations of the Basel Committee, develop their own risk classifications, an example of a risk map ( detailed structure financial risks commercial Bank), created by PricewaterhouseCoopers, called Garp:

1. Credit risk is the risk of possible losses related to the worsening of creditworthiness caused by the inability or reluctance to fulfill their obligations in accordance with the terms of the agreement. For the Bank, credit activities are the main in the structure of active operations, so fails to fulfill its obligations to financial losses and, ultimately, leads to a decrease in capital adequacy and liquidity.

2. Market risk is a possible adverse rejection of the bank's financial results from planned, caused by changes in market quotations (market prices).

3. The risk of a portfolio concentration is a class of risks associated with increased dependence of the Bank from individual counterparties or groups of related counterparties, individual industries, regions, products or service providers.

4. The risk of liquidity is the risk associated with the reduction in the ability to finance the received positions on transactions, when the deadlines for the elimination of their elimination, the impossibility of coating the requirements of counterparties, as well as the requirements of the provision, and, finally, the risk associated with the impossibility of eliminating assets on various segments of financial Market. Maintaining a certain level of liquidity is carried out by managing assets and liabilities. The main task is to maintain the optimal relationship between liquidity and profitability, as well as balance between the terms of investments in assets and liabilities. To provide current liquidity The bank must have a sufficient stock of liquid assets, which imposes restrictions on investment in low-liquid assets (loans).

5. Operational risk is the risk of losses associated with human actions (both deliberate and unintentional), malfunctions or external influences.

6. The risk of a business event is a class of risks faced by the Bank as an economic entity. These risks are not specific to banks, any other business entity faces with them.

The main task facing bank structures is minimizing credit risks. To achieve this goal, a large arsenal of methods is used, comprising formal, semi-formal and informal procedures for assessing credit risks. Minimize bank credit risks allows diversification loan portfoliowhose quality can be determined based on the risk assessment of each individual loan and the risk of the entire portfolio as a whole. One of the criteria determining the quality of the loan portfolio as a whole is the degree of diversified portfolio, under which they understand the presence of negative correlations between the loans, or at least their independence from each other. The degree of diversification is difficult to express quantitatively, so under diversification, rather, it is understood as a set of rules that the lender must adhere to. The most famous of them are as follows: not to provide a loan to several enterprises of one industry; do not provide a loan to enterprises of different industries, but interrelated with each other technological process, etc. In essence, the desire to maximize diversification representing the process of setting the most diverse loans, there is nothing but an attempt to form a loan portfolio with the most diverse types of risks in order to change in the external economic environmentwhere enterprises - borrowers are functioning, did not have a negative impact on all loans.

The bank in its appointment should be one of the most reliable institutions of the Company, represent the basis of stability. economic System. IN modern conditions An unstable legal and economic environment can not only save, but also to multiply the funds of their customers almost independently. In these conditions professional management Bank risks, operational identification and accounting of risk factors in daily activities are primarily acquired.

Literature:

1. Arsenyev Yu. N., Davydova T. Yu., Davydov I. N., Shlapakov and M. Fundamentals of security and risky theory. - M.: high school, 2009. - 350 s.

2. Balabanov I.T. Risk management. M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. - 200 p.

3. Belyakov A.V. Bank risks: Problems of accounting, management and regulation. - M.: Publishing Group "BDTS-PRESS", 2009. - 256С.

4. Kabushkin S.N. Management of bank credit risk: studies. benefit / S.N. Kabushkin. - 3rd ed., Ched. - M.: New Knowledge, 2010. - 336c.

Scientific adviser:

ph.D., Doc. Alekseeva N.G.

Banks are the main participants of the financial market: the general development of the Russian economy depends on their stable functioning. In the context of increasing the instability of national and global financial markets, the problem of preservation is extremely important. financial Sustainability Banking system of Russia.

The destructive consequences of the modern economic crisis questioned the effectiveness of many basic principles of modern financial management, including issues of issues and the effectiveness of banking bank risks management.

In the current economic situation, the main condition for the preservation financial stability It is the formation and implementation of a financial risk management system, which should be effective both in a relatively stable external environment and during the crisis period. The effectiveness of financial risk management tools depends on the improvement of the scientific and methodological foundations of banking risk management.

Under the category "Banking risk" in the work means the likelihood of deviation from the planned indicators of the Bank's activities due to the conduct of active-passive operations of the credit institution, the state of corporate governance and the influence of the factors of the external environment.

Banking risk should not be considered only as a negative phenomenon. On the contrary, the presence of risk to some extent can be viewed as a factor of dynamic development banking sector Economy. Note that taking risky financial decisions makes sense only when a positive economic result is expected from a risky operation. If, even with favorable conditions, the operation does not give any income, then it is necessary to exclude a risk. It should be borne in mind that the bank, which always refuses risky operations, loses the possibility of an additional increase in profits and further development.

In the process of grouping banking risks, various classification components can be distinguished, namely: financial; temporary; place of formation; the degree of influence on the basic operations of the bank; The possibility of forecasting and management.

Examples of the classification of bank risks according to the above features are shown in Table 1.

Table 1

Examples of bank risks classification

	Types of bank risks
H. Van Grüning, S. Bryonovich- Brotanovich	financial: pure (credit, liquidity risk and solvency) and speculative (interest, currency and market); operational; business; Emergency
	risks on balance and off-balance sheet operations; Risks passive operations (deposit); Risks of active operations (credit, currency, portfolio, investment, liquidity risk)
S. Kozmenko, F. Spies, I. Voloschko	risks associated with customer features; Risks of banking operations: risks of active operations (credit, portfolio, liquidity risk) and risks of passive operations (emission, deposit, risks due to the type of bank)
T. Osipenko	credit; market; liquidity risk; operational risks; legal; Management risks
Y. Potyko	credit; percentage; currency; Risk market valuable papers; risk early refund Deposits
L. Zamoleka.	liquidity risk; credit; insolvency risk; risk variability

We offer the following classification of banking risks:

1. Financial risks - high probability of determining the quantitative size of risk. Financial risks refer to the internal risks that arise in the process of carrying out active and passive banking operations.

2. Operational risks - the low probability of determining the quantitative size of risk. Operational risks relate to internal risks and are associated with the effectiveness of corporate governance and the organization of banking operations.

3. Functional risks belong to the external environment of the bank and are almost not quantified.

In the context of the crisis, the size of the financial risks to which include:

1. Credit risk is the likelihood of deviation from planned indicators due to non-fulfillment by the borrower of obligations to the bank. Credit risk is advisable to divide on an individual (specific counterparty of the bank) and portfolio (aggregate debt to the bank).

2. The risk of liquidity is the likelihood of deviation from planned indicators due to the loss of balance between assets and liabilities of the bank (balance risk) and the inability to attract financial resources to implement the strategic development goals (market liquidity risk).

3. Currency risk - the probability of deviation from planned indicators due to changes in the exchange rate. With a long open currency position, the devaluation of the national currency improves the level of return of the bank; revaluation - worsens. With a short currency position, the devaluation of the national currency worsens the level of profitability; revaluation - improves.

4. Percentage risk is the likelihood of deviation from planned indicators due to changes in interest rates.

5. The stock risk is the likelihood of deviation from planned indicators due to changes in the value of securities or other financial instruments on the market.

The main methods for determining the quantitative assessment of the above financial risks of the Bank are indicated in Table 2

table 2

Methods for assessing the financial risks of the bank

	financial risk	Benefits of the method	Disadvantages of the method
1. Statistical:	credit	high definition loss size and probability risk realization in ordinary conditions	necessity processing a large number of statistical information. Small efficiency estimates in crisis
1.1 Method "Monte
1.2 Z-model Altman
1.3 Chessera model
1.4 Durana model
1.5 var - method	credit, monetary, stock
2. Expert 2.1 Dolphi method	credit, currency, percentage,	perfect B. conditions lack or absence	subjective character

2.2 Method "Decision Tree"		stock	reliable information.
		credit	effective crisis		conditions
3. Analytical: 3.1 Duration		stock	Includes opportunities for factor analysis of parameters. High evaluation efficiency in crisis			labour intensive
3.2 Stress testing		currency, stock
3.3 GAP - Analysis		percentage
4. Method of analogy		credit, liquidity, currency, stock, interest	evaluation efficiency in ordinary conditions			it is difficult to create similar conditions
5. Combined			synergistic effect. High efficiency in ordinary conditions and in crisis			a lot of time, requires the processing of statistical, financial and managerial information

Most of the statistical methods are to determine the likelihood of the realization of the risk and the determination of its magnitude - use the statistics of profits and losses of banks. These methods are based on the theory of probability distribution of random variables.

Some methods of expert assessments are similar to statistical. The principal difference lies in the fact that expert methods provide for an analysis of the assessments made by various specialists (internal or external experts). An expert assessment can be obtained both after the relevant research and when using the accumulated experience of leading experts.

In turn, analytical methods are based on game theory and include the following steps: 1) the choice of a key indicator (for example, the yield rate); 2) defining the factors of the external and internal environment affecting the selected indicator;

3) Calculation of indicator values \u200b\u200bwhen changing the factors of an external or internal environment.

The method of analogy is used when analyzing new banking products or business directions of a credit institution. The essence of this method is to transfer a similar situation to the object of the study. The main disadvantage of this method is that it is very difficult to create conditions in which the past experience would repeat.

As can be seen from Table 2, the advantage of the combined method is that it uses the advantages of all methods discussed above (for example, a statistical method, as a result of the estimation of the past, can be supplemented with an analytical method). In addition, the combined method is effective both in ordinary conditions and in the conditions of the crisis.

Note that the formation of a financial risk management system in banks occurs in three stages:

1. The preparatory stage includes the formalization of the Bank's business processes; description of procedures for monitoring and decision making; development of methods for assessing and predicting risks; the definition of collegial bodies and departments that will be directly involved in managing financial risks; Drawing up financial risks on bank responsibility centers (Table 3).

Table 3 Determination of financial risks for the main responsibility centers

responsibility	Business directions	financial risks
Treasury Department	Optimization and regulation cash streams bank, purchase and sale of currency for customers and own needs in the interbank market of Russia, attracting and placement of funds in the interbank market of Russia and international markets	liquidity interest, currency
Control corporation	Providing customers with a wide range of services for lending, on operations with notes, attracting funds legal entities	credit, monetary, interest
Control individual business	Sale of banking products individual bank customers, optimization of the cost of services for individuals	credit, monetary, interest
Control investment business	Evissions of own securities, organization purchases and sales of securities on the instructions of customers, the implementation of operations in the securities market on their own behalf, underwriting, investing in authorized funds and securities of legal entities, trust management means and securities under contracts with legal and individuals	stock

2. The procedural stage of the Bank's financial risk management system includes the development of limit establishment procedures; The concept of minimizing financial risks; procedures for revising the basic parameters of the Bank's limit policy; Procedures Insurance, Heading, etc.

3. The integration stage includes an analysis of the requirements for the quantity and quality of information entering the automated financial risk management system; Development of recommendations for the implementation of the financial risk management mechanism in the Bank's corporate system; Development of a phased plan for implementing a financial risk management system.

Consider the basic financial risk management tools of the Bank:

1. Insurance (Bankshurans) is one of the elements of the Bank's financial risks. In the process of using this tool, it should be remembered that, firstly, not all financial risks are subject to insurance, and secondly, the more risk volume is translated into insurance company, the higher the cost of payment of the relevant insurance Polisa.. Therefore, one of the main problems of the implementation of banksuancence is to determine which risks it makes sense to leave in a bank, carrying out additional costs to reduce them, and which shifting to the insurer, making additional costs to pay the PHB-policy.

2. Heading - Reducing the Bank's financial risks through derivative financial market tools: futures, forwards, swaps and options (the advantages and disadvantages of derivative tools are shown in Table 4).

3. Diversification is a tool for reducing financial risks through the distribution of bank resources into various assets or activities (for example, crediting corporate clients related to various sectors of the economy).

Table 4.

Advantages and disadvantages of derivatives of financial risks hedge

Derivative tool	Benefits	disadvantages
	Individual nature conclusion of the transaction; no commission; Does not require daily revaluation at the current course or rates	Low liquidity tool; The complexity of the search for counterparty
	High tool liquidity; providing timeliness and completeness of payments by the Exchange	Standard conditions agreements; Limited flexibility in terms of terms and other contract conditions

4. Limits are a tool for reducing the Bank's financial risks through limiting the values \u200b\u200bof open positions under risk (examples of limits are shown in Table 5)

Table 5 Limits on Bank Financial Risks

Financial
Credit	Limits on individual counterparties
	Limits of geographic concentration
	Limits of sectoral concentration
Liquidity	Limits for cumulative GAP-breaks
Stock	Limits to change the value of the Bank's investment portfolio
Percentage	Limit on overall sensitivity to percentage oscillations
	Limits percentage GAP-breaks
Monetary	Limits on open currency positions for each currency
	Limit on the overall open currency position of the bank

5. Securitization of assets is a portfolio transformation tool credit risk bank in financial instruments stock market. In the process of sequinition, the Bank fully or partially "sells" a loan portfolio, written off its balance before the date of repayment, and transfers the right to receive the principal debt and percent on it to a new lender, and not necessarily the bank.

6. The formation of reserves is the accumulation of a part of the bank resources, which are later sent to the "repayment" of non-refundable assets. The main problem in the formation of reserves is the assessment of potential risk consequences.

Conclusions. Modern crisis phenomena raise the problem of forming a qualitatively new methodological basis for bank management. This is naturally accompanied by updating the issue of improving the efficiency of managing financial risks of a credit institution. The diversity of financial risks, methods for their assessment and management indicates the need to continuously upgrade the risk management system of the Bank.

Bibliography

1. Gruning H. Wang. Analysis of bank risks. Corporate governance and financial risk management system / H. Van Grunging, S. Bryonovich- Bratanovich. - M.: The whole world, 2004. - 150 c.

2. Zotov V. A. Banking risks in practice / V. A. Zotov. - Bishkek: 2000. - 128 p.

3. Kozmenko S. M. Strategigine Management Bank: NROW. Pos_b. / CM. Kozmenko, F. І. Spies, І. V. Voloschko. - Sumi: University Book, 2003. - 734 p.

4. Osipenko T. V. On the risk system banking activities / T. V. Osipenko // Money and loan. - 2000. - № 4. - P. 28-30.

5. Potiyko Yu. Theorem of the practice management of Riznimi Views Rizikiva in Commier Banks / Yu. Potіyko // Visnik NBU. - 2004. - № 4. - P. 58-60.

6. Governance Bankivsky Risikov: NROW. Pos_b. / back ed. L. O. Jam Big. - K.: Kneu, 2007. - 600 p.

7. Final and Risiki Bankiv: Theorem of the practice of management in Umov Krizis: MONOGAI / V. V. Bobil; DNPROPETER. nat. University of Zizn. TransP. ІМ. Acad .. V. Lazarian. - Dnipropetrovsk, 2016. - 300 p.

In the course of its activities, commercial banks are subject to multiple risks. In general, bank risks are divided into 4 categories: financial, operational, business and emergency. Financial risks in turn include 2 types of risks: clean and speculative. Pure risks - incl. Credit risk, liquidity and solvency risks - may with improper management lead to a loss of bank. Speculative risks based on financial arbitration may result in their result, if the arbitration is carried out correctly, or loss - otherwise. The main types of speculative risk are the interest, currency and market (or positional) risks. Like any enterprise operating in the market conditions, the Bank is subject to risk of losses and bankruptcy. Naturally, seeking to maximize profits, the Bank's management at the same time seeks to minimize the possibility of damages. The two ways to a certain extent contradict each other. Maintaining the optimal ratio between profitability and risk is one of the main and most complex problems of bank management. The risk is associated with uncertainty, the latter is associated with events that are difficult or impossible to foresee. The loan portfolio of the commercial bank is subject to all major types of risk that are accompanied by financial activities: risk of liquidity, risk of interest rates, risk of non-payment on a loan. The last type of risk is especially important, since the non-risk of loans to borrowers brings large losses to banks and serves as one of the most frequent causes of bankruptcies of credit institutions.

Credit risk depends on exogenous factors associated with the state of the economic environment, with the situation, and endogenous, caused by the erroneous actions of the Bank itself. The possibilities of managing external factors are limited, although timely actions, the Bank may subject to a certain way to mitigate their influence and prevent losses. However, the main leverage of credit risk management lie in the field of domestic policy of the bank.

The main task facing bank structures is minimizing credit risks. To achieve this goal, a large arsenal of methods is used, comprising formal, semi-formal and informal procedures for assessing credit risks. Minimize credit risks of banks allows the diversification of a loan portfolio, the quality of the custor can be determined on the basis of the risk assessment of each individual loan and the risk of the entire portfolio as a whole. One of the criteria determining the quality of the loan portfolio as a whole is the degree of diversified portfolio, under which they understand the presence of negative correlations between the loans, or at least their independence from each other. The degree of diversification is difficult to express quantitatively, so under diversification, rather, it is understood as a set of rules that the lender must adhere to. The most famous of them are as follows: not to provide a loan to several enterprises of one industry; Do not provide a loan to enterprises of different industries, but interconnected with each other technological process, etc. In essence, the desire to maximize diversification representing the process of a set of the most diverse loans, there is nothing but an attempt to form a loan portfolio with the most diverse types of risks in order to change in an external economic environment where enterprises-borrowers are functioning Negative impact on all loans. Changes in the economic environment should affect the situation of borrowers' enterprises in different ways. This means that under the most differentiated risks, lenders understand the most diverse response of loans to events in the economy. Ideally, it is desirable that the negative response of some loans, when the likelihood of their non-risk increases, was compensated by the positive response of others when the probability of their obstruction decreases. In this case, it can be expected that the income will not depend on the state of the market and will be maintained. It is important here to note that if the concept of a variety of risks by species is quite difficult to determine, then the diversity of the impact rendered to the situation of borrowers by changes in the economic situation is quite simple, because The natural measure of the impact is the magnitude of the incomplete income on a separate loan compared to the planned. In other words, the impact on credit is the difference between the planned and actual income volumes by a separate loan for a certain period of time.

Different types of financial risks, moreover, are closely related to each other, which can significantly increase the overall bank profile risk. For example, a bank exercising currency operationsIt is usually subject to currency risk, it will also be under an additional liquidity risk and interest risk if there will be open positions or discrepancies in the periods of requirements and obligations in the net position on emergency operations.

Operational risks depend: from the general business strategy of the bank; From its organization: from the functioning of internal systems, including computer and other technologies; from the consistency of the policy of the Bank and its procedures; from measures aimed at preventing errors in management and against fraud (although these risk types are extremely important and covered by banking risk management systems, this work It does not pay much attention to them, since focused on financial risks). Business risks are associated with an external banking business environment, incl. With macroeconomic and political factors, legal conditions and regulatory conditions, as well as with the general infrastructure of the financial sector and the payment system. Extreme risks include all types of exogenous risks, which in the event of an event is able to expose the activities of the bank or undermine it financial condition and capital adequacy.

Deposit Risk - Risk associated with the possibility of no return deposit deposits (deferences of deposit certificates). This risk It is rare quite rarely and is associated with an unsuccessful choice of a commercial bank for the implementation of enterprise deposit operations. Nevertheless, cases of deposit risk are found not only in our country, but also in countries with developed market economy. Abroad, the insured of this type of risk is the bank, and the insurance is carried out in a mandatory form.

Credit risk is the risk associated with the danger of non-payment by the borrower of the principal debt and interest due to the creditor. The causes of the occurrence of credit risk may be the unscrupulousness of the borrower, the deterioration of the competitive position of a particular company, adverse economic conjuncture.

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Graduation qualifying work

Financial managementrisks of a commercial bank

INmaintenance

financial Commercial Bank Risk

The ability to risk intelligently - one of the elements of the culture of entrepreneurship as a whole, and banking activities - especially.

In market conditions, each of its participants takes certain rules of the game and to a certain extent depends on the behavior of partners. One of these rules can be readily readiness to take risk and take into account the possibility of its implementation in its activities.

In the West, even in relatively stable economic conditions, business entities pay close attention to risk management issues. At the same time, in russian economywhere the factors of economic instability have increasingly complicate the effective management of enterprises, analysis of the analysis and management of risks arising in the process of their economic activityis clearly not enough attention.

Until recently, such an approach dominated not only in enterprises real sectors economy but also in financial and Credit Organizations. Close attention to the issue of risk management began to be given only after the coming financial crisis, which clearly identified the entire severity of this problem in Russia.

In an effort to stabilize the socio-economic situation of enterprises, their financial independence, increase the efficiency of activity and ultimately maximize profits or, as a last resort, avoid damages and bankruptcy, managers of enterprises in modern conditions are becoming increasing attention to financial planning. This is undoubtedly one of the factors of the normalization of economic turnover, ensuring it necessary resources, strengthening the financial situation of enterprises in the face of the uncertainty of the economic situation.

Consequently, in a market economy, the decision-making process at all levels of management occurs in conditions when the final result is unknown. So, there is ambiguity and uncertainty, and, consequently, risk increases, that is, the danger of failure, unforeseen losses. In particular, it is inherent in the initial stages of the development of entrepreneurship.

In modern economic theory, such a category as a risk is acting as a measure of uncertainty.

The problem of risk management exists in any economic sector - from agriculture and industry to trade and financial institutions, which explains its relevance.

In this regard, it is relevant to the definition of a risk assessment indicators in the planning of the enterprise, factors affecting it, the development of practical recommendations for reducing and minimizing risks, as well as the development of a risk management strategy.

The financial activity of the enterprise in all its forms is associated with numerous risks, the degree of influence of which the results of this activity increase significantly with the transition to a market economy. The risks accompanying this activity are allocated to a special group of financial risks playing the most significant role in the general "risk portfolio" of the enterprise. The increase in the degree of influence of financial risks on the results of the financial activities of the enterprise is associated with the rapid variability of the economic situation in the country and the conjunctures of the financial market, the expansion of the scope of financial relations and its "liberty", the emergence of new financial technologies and tools and a number of other factors for our economic practice.

Financial risk management of the enterprise is a specific financial management scope, which last years It was allocated to a special area of \u200b\u200bknowledge - "Risk Management". Specialists working in this area are special qualification requirements, in particular, knowledge of the foundations of the economy and finance of the enterprise, mathematical methods, the foundations and applied apparatus of statistics, insurance affairs, etc. The main function of such specialists ("risk managers") is the management of financial risks of the enterprise.

Financial risk as an object of management implies its assessment and minimization using risk management methods. There are several ways to assess the financial risk and a great set of methods for controlling them. The main goal of financial management to ensure that with the worst decision of the financial state, it can only be about a certain decrease in profit, but in no case there was a bankruptcy question. Therefore, special attention is paid to the continuous improvement of risk management - risk management. This explains the practical significance of exhaust qualifying work.

The purpose of the study is to analyze financial risks and reserves for their decline.

In accordance with the aim, the tasks of graduation qualifying work were formulated:

Consider the theoretical foundations of financial risk as a subject of management;

Make an assessment and analysis of financial risk on the example of CJSC VTB;

Determine the main directions of management of financial risks of an enterprise.

The object of the study was the commercial bank of VTB CJSC, which needs to develop measures to prevent financial losses.

The theoretical and methodological basis served the scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists and financiers.

The practical significance of the work is that the proposed measures to improve the efficiency of financial risk management can be used in its work to reduce the influence of financial risks and increase the efficiency of the enterprise.

1. Theoretical Basics of Financial Risks

1.1 The essence of financial risk, its types and causes of occurrence

Considering the essence and content of risk, now there is no need to prove that the success of the entrepreneur, businessman, the manager largely depends on the understanding of attitudes towards risk. This problem is of particular interest and deserves a comprehensive study.

Risk is an economic category. As an economic category, it is the ability to make an event that may entail three economic results:

- Negative (loss, damage, loss);

- zero;

- Positive (winnings, benefit, profit).

An analysis of the economic literature devoted to the problem of risk showed that among the researchers there is no consensus regarding the definition and one-to-one understanding of the essence of risk. This explains, in particular, the multidimensionality of this phenomenon, practically complete ignoring its economic legislation in real economic practices and management activities. In addition, the risk is a complex phenomenon that has many inconsistent, and sometimes opposite real bases. This causes the possibility of the existence of several risk definitions from different points of view.

Let us dwell on the next risk determination that the most fully reflects the concept of "risk".

The risk is activities related to overcoming uncertainty in the situation of inevitable choice, in the process of which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and rejection of the goal.

An analysis of numerous risk definitions made it possible to identify the highlights that are characteristic of the risk situation, such as:

- the random nature of the events that determines which outcomes are implemented in practice (the presence of uncertainty);

- availability of alternative solutions;

- are known or you can determine the probabilities of outcomes and expected results;

- the likelihood of damages or the likelihood of additional profit.

It should be noted that the difference between risk and uncertainty refers to a method for setting information and is determined by the presence (in case of risk) or the absence (with uncertainty) of probabilistic characteristics of uncontrolled variables. In a noted sense, these terms are used in the mathematical theory of the study of operations, where they distinguish the tasks of decision-making at risk and, accordingly, in conditions of uncertainty.

If it is possible to qualitatively and quantify the degree of likelihood of a particular option, then it will be a risk situation.

Under the financial risk of the enterprise means the likelihood of adverse financial implications in the form of income and capital loss in the situation of uncertainty of the conditions for the implementation of its financial activities.

There are various definitions of the concept of "risk". So, in the most general form, at risk, the likelihood of losses or incomplete income is understood as compared with the predicted option, i.e. This is a situational characteristic of activities consisting of the uncertainty of its outcome and possible steps with which it can be optimized.

Another risk determination is any event, as a result of which the financial performance of the Company may be lower than expected. When making a financial decision, it is necessary to analyze financial risk.

In the most general form, the financial risk is an image of action in an unclear, an indefinite environment associated with the monetary sphere.

In investment activities, under financial risk, the risk imposed on shareholders (owners) of the enterprise associated with the uncertainty of payments on their debt obligations is implied.

Thus, the financial risk is the degree of uncertainty associated with a combination of borrowed and own funds used to finance a company or property; The larger the share of borrowed funds, the higher the financial risk.

A distinctive feature of financial risk analysis is that the objectivity of the management decisions made largely depends on its results.

Risk is inherent in a number of features, among which you can allocate:

- inconsistency,

- alternativeness,

- uncertainty.

Contribuability is manifested in the fact that, on the one hand, the risk has important economic, political and spiritual and moral consequences, since accelerates public and technical progress, has a positive impact on public opinion and the spiritual atmosphere of society. On the other hand, the risk leads to adactivity, voluntarism, subjectivism, inhibits social progress, generates certain socio-economic and moral costs, if in the conditions of incomplete source information, the risk situation is chosen without taking into account the objective patterns of the development of the phenomenon in relation to which The decision is made.

Alternativeness implies the need to choose from two or several possible solutions. The lack of choices takes off talk about risk. Where there is no choice, the risky situation does not arise and, therefore, there will be no risk.

The existence of risk is directly associated with uncertainty. It is heterogeneous in the form of manifestation and content. The risk is one of the ways to withdraw the uncertainty, which represents ignorance of a reliable, lack of unambiguity. Across the attention on this property of risk is important due to the fact that optimizing management and regulation in practice, ignoring objective and subjective sources of uncertainty, unpromising.

Financial risk is a function of time. As a rule, the degree of risk for this financial asset or an embodiment of capital investments is increased over time.

Financial risk is manifested in the field of economic activity of the enterprise. Financial risk is associated with the formation of resources, capital, income and financial results of the enterprise, is characterized by possible monetary losses in the process of carrying out economic activity. Financial risk is defined as a category of economic, occupying a certain place in the system of economic categories.

The expected level of financial operational performance varies depending on the type and level of risk in a rather significant range. Thus, the financial risk may be accompanied by both significant financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of additional income.

Financial risk is an integral part of all economic operations and inherent in all areas of the enterprise. The objective nature of the manifestation of financial risk remains unchanged.

Despite the fact that the manifestations of financial risks have an objective nature, the main indicator of financial risk is the level of risk - is subjective. The subjectivity of risk assessment is due to various levels of accuracy of management information, professional experience and qualifications of financial managers and other factors.

The risk is not a permanent value, the level of financial risk is changed. First of all, it changes in time. In addition, the indicator of the level of financial risk varies significantly under the influence of numerous objective and subjective factors affecting the risk.

During the preparation and adoption of the economic decision, it is impossible to argue with complete confidence, which particular conjuncture will be in the market, which changes in the surrounding economic environment will entail commissioning or new characteristics of the functioning of an industrial facility, which unexpected technical obstacles or constructive problems may arise. Buyers may not like a new product, the conjuncture in the market sector of this enterprise may change for reasons, not an unemployed entrepreneur, etc. However, submitting an idea to a versatile critical analysis, identifying potential hazards and analyzing possible consequencesfinally attracting additional informationIt is possible to provide measures to neutralize or mitigate the unwanted consequences of the manifestation of certain financial risk factors.

Despite the fact that theoretically, as a result of the consequences of the manifestation of financial risk, both positive (profit) and negative (loss, loss) of deviations can be, and the financial risk is characterized by the level of possible adverse effects. This is due to the fact that the negative consequences of financial risks determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise and this leads it to bankruptcy and termination.

Blank I.A. Under financial risk understands the likelihood of adverse financial implications in the form of loss of income or capital in the situation of uncertainty conditions for the implementation of its financial activities. Most risks fall under this definition of financial risk, since in the implementation of most risks, income loss occurs, and uncertainty is a characteristic feature of any risk. In addition, the risk of liquidity loss (element of financial risk) in the conditions of the inflationary economy for the enterprise, as a rule, does not lead to money losses.

Kovalev V.V. It gives the definition of financial risk as a risk associated with the possible disadvantage of interest on long-term loans and borrowings. However, this approach narrows the content of the category. The above definition can be considered a private case with the risk characteristic of the liquidity loss of the enterprise.

Financial risk is not a fatal phenomenon, but a largely managed process. Its parameters, it is possible to effect on its level. Since such an impact can only be provided on the "cognitive" risk, then it is necessary to treat it rationally, i.e. It must be studied, analyze the manifestations of risk in economic situations, identify and identify its characteristics: the composition and significance of risk factors, the scope of the consequences of their manifestation, etc.

Determining the acceptable value of the level of financial risk is an independent task of a special study. It is preceded by a large analytical work and special calculations, and the regulatory establishment of some level as an acceptable - the prerogative of the highest management of the enterprise. The boundary between acceptable and unacceptable for the economic entity level of risk in different periods Business activities and in different sectors of the economy are different. For example, if you evaluate the risk in a probabilistic scale, then according to some data, for highly technological production, the allowable probability of obtaining a negative result at the stage fundamental studies is 5-10% applied scientific developments About 80-90%, design and design developments 90-95%.

Economic I. political development modern Mira It gives rise to new types of risks that are quite difficult to determine and evaluate quantitatively. Transnationalization of business is accompanied by the creation of complex financial and production relationships. Strengthening computerization and automation of production and economic activities of entrepreneurial organizations leads to the possibility of losses due to failures in computer systems and in the work of computing technology. In recent years, the risks associated with political factors have become of particular importance, as they carry large losses for entrepreneurship.

In the field of financing, the project may be risky if this is primarily facilitated:

- economic instability in the country;

- inflation;

- the current situation of non-payment in the industry;

- shortage of budget funds.

As the causes of the financial risk of the project, the following can be called:

- political factors;

- fluctuations in exchange rates;

- state regulation of accounting banking rate;

- the increase in the cost of resources in the capital market;

- increase production costs;

- lack of information resources;

- Personal qualities of the entrepreneur.

Thus, the listed reasons may lead to an increase in interest rates, higher prices for financing, as well as increase in prices and contracts for contracts.

1. 2 Classification of financial risks and methods for their assessment

The concept of "risk" is inextricably linked with human activity and has the same years as Civilization exists. Its existence is associated with the inability in many cases, it is significant to anticipate the onset of certain events that may not depend on the desires, preferences and actions of the subject.

Entrepreneurial activities carried out in the harsh conditions of the market economy is also no exception. When implementing any type of economic activity, there is an objectively danger (risk) of losses, the volume of which is due to the specifics of a particular business. The risk is the likelihood of losses, losses, inappropriate planned income, profits. Losses that occur in business activities can be divided into material, labor, financial.

The risk of business has a dual nature and includes not only adverse outcomes (loss), but also favorable opportunities (for example, increasing profitability). This combination of danger and favorable possibilities clearly symbolizes the essence of risk and a compromise of the compromise of the decisions taken in business: the higher the risk generated by the danger, the greater there should be a reward associated with a favorable opportunity.

Currently, such a look at risk is characteristic of many economic disciplines. In particular, it underlies one of the most common approaches in the financial management, according to which the risk is interpreted as the possibility of deviating the actual results of the operations of the expected (projected). The wider range of possible deviations, the higher the risk of a business operation. In this case, the result of the operation usually understand its yield, i.e. the amount of received payments calculated in percentage By the amount of costs.

Under the classification, the system of the coented concepts of any field of knowledge or human activity used as a means of improving relations between these concepts is understood. Thus, the classification of risks means systematizing a plurality of risks on the basis of any signs and criteria that allow you to combine subsets of risks in general concepts. Scientific risk classification promotes a clear definition of the place of each risk in general System and create potential opportunities to effectively apply the appropriate methods, risk management techniques. In my opinion, the most informative is the classification of banking risks proposed by Peter S. Rose, which allocates the following six main types of risk of commercial bank and four additional species. The main types of risk P. Rose refers the following:

· Credit risk;

· Risk of liquidity imbalance;

· Market risk;

· Percentage risk;

· Risk of inconstitution of profits;

· The risk of insolvency;

To other important types of risk Rose P. refers four more types, which it determines as follows:

· Inflationary risk;

· Currency risk;

· Political risk;

· Risk of abuse.

The advantage of this classification is that this system includes both the risks arising within the bank and risks, the emerging pnene of the bank and affect its activities.

At the same time, currently such a classification cannot be used by commercial banks for practical use in view of its consolidation, and therefore, a more detailed classification is needed with the allocation of groups and subgroups of risk, depending on the specifics of the operations conducted by the Bank. The classification of Sheremete A.D., the classification of Sheremete A.D., is the classification of Sheremete, the advantage of which is the creation of a certain risk system, which includes certain types of risk, and the basis of risks on external and internal risks. This allows you to divide the risks that arise outside the bank, and affect the operating activities of the Bank and the risks arising within the bank in the process of implementing the bank of their "production" activities. This is a fundamental difference between two risk classes determines the attitude towards them from banks, control methods and management capabilities. Risks According to the type of relations to the internal and external environment of the bank are classified as follows:

· Risks associated with the instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation, the conditions for investing and using profits.

· Foreign economic risks (the possibility of introducing restrictions on trade and supply, closure of borders, etc.).

· The possibility of deterioration of the political situation, the risk of adverse socio-political changes in the country or region.

· Ability to change the natural and climatic conditions, natural disasters.

· Wipening market conditions, exchange rates etc.

internal:

· Related with active operations (credit, currency, market, settlement, leasing, factoring, cash registers, risk on correspondent account, on financing and investment, etc.)

· Bank's obligations (risks on deposit and deposit operations, according to the involved interbank loans)

· Associated with the quality of management of the bank with their assets and liabilities (interest risk, the risk of unbalanced liquidity, insolvency, risks of capital structure, leverage, bank capital failure)

· Risk-related financial services (operational, technological, innovation risks, strategic, accounting, administrative, risks of abuse, security).

Unlike the Western Risk Management Practices, in Russia only recently included the instructions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the form of a letter dated 23.06.2004 No. 70-T "On Typical Banking Risks", in which 10 risks groups were allocated: credit, country, market, stock, currency , interest, liquidity, legal, risk of loss of business reputation and strategic. In addition, the Central Bank proposed commercial banks to monitor risks at three main levels: individual (employee level), micro - and macro levels.

The risks of the individual level include risks caused by the consequences of unlawful or incompetent solutions of individual workers.

The risks of the micro level include the risks of liquidity and reducing capital generated by the decisions of the management apparatus.

The risks of the macro level include risks predetermined by external to the bank macroeconomic and regulatory and legal activities. The main documents that are guided by the risk managers of Western companies in practical activity are developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and are called banking supervisory principles. This document contains 25 principles, the implementation of which is called upon by the minimum necessary condition for ensuring efficient banking supervision, as well as comments on them based on the recommendations of the Basel Committee and the best international practice in the field of banking and banking supervision. Among the Basss Principles, it is possible to allocate principles 6-15 associated with risks of banking. The integration of Russian banking financial statements with international financial statements (IFRS) will undoubtedly gain its development in the application of these principles in Russian practice. International audit companies operating in Russia, on the basis of the recommendations of the Basel Committee, develop their own risk classifications, an example is a risk map (a detailed structure of the financial risks of a commercial bank), established by PricewaterhouseCoopers, called GARP (Tab 1).

Need to give brief description The risks given in Table:

1. Credit risk is the risk of possible losses related to the worsening of creditworthiness caused by the inability or reluctance to fulfill their obligations in accordance with the terms of the agreement. For the Bank, credit activities are the main in the structure of active operations, so fails to fulfill its obligations to financial losses and, ultimately, leads to a decrease in capital adequacy and liquidity.

Table1.1. Financial Risk Map of Commercial Bank

Risk class	View of risk	Risk variety
Credit risk	Direct credit risk
	Estimated risk
	Risk of credit equivalent
	Risk of correlation
	Stock risk	Risk of variability of stock price Risk of variability of volatility Basis risk Risk of dividend
Market risk	Percentage risk	Risk of change interest rate Risk of yield curve Interest rate risk The basic risk of interest rate / percentage spread risk Risk of prepayment
	Currency risk	Risk of currency rate Volatility of exchange rates Risk of profit conversion
	Trade risk	Risk price for goods Risk of forward price Risk of price volatility for goods Basic trade risk / recession
Risk of portfolio concentration	Credit Spread
	Risk of tools
	Risk of a substantial operation
	Risk of sector economy
Risk of liquidity	Risk of liquidity funding
	The risk of liquidity of assets
Operational risk	Risk of transaction	Error in performance Product complexity Error in accounting Error in calculations Risk delivery of goods Risk of documentation / Contract risk
	Risk of operational control	Excess limits Unfair trading Fraud Money laundering Risk of security Risk of main personnel Risk processing operation
	Risk of systems	Programming errors Error about the model / Methodology Error defining a market price Management information Computer system failure Error telecommunication systems Planning events in case of emergency situations
Risk Business Events	Risk of currency convertibility
	Pest Reputation
	Tax risk
	Legal risk
	The risk of unforeseen circumstances	Natural disasters. Military actions. Crisis / suspension of operations in the market
	PIR legislation	Failure to comply with capital requirements. Changes in legislation

2. Market risk is a possible adverse rejection of the bank's financial results from planned, caused by changes in market quotations (market prices).

3. The risk of a portfolio concentration is a class of risks associated with increased dependence of the Bank from individual counterparties or groups of related counterparties, individual industries, regions, products or service providers.

4. The risk of liquidity is the risk associated with the reduction in the ability to finance the received positions on transactions, when the deadlines for the elimination of their elimination, the impossibility of covering the requirements of counterparties, as well as the requirements of ensuring, and finally the risk associated with the inability to eliminate assets on various segments of the financial market . Maintaining a certain level of liquidity is carried out by managing assets and liabilities. The main task is to maintain the optimal relationship between liquidity and profitability, as well as balance between the terms of investments in assets and liabilities. To ensure the current liquidity, the bank must have a sufficient stock of liquid assets, which imposes restrictions on investing in low-liquid assets (loans).

5. Operational risk is the risk of losses associated with human actions (both deliberate and unintentional), malfunctions or external influences.

6. The risk of a business event is a class of risks faced by the Bank as an economic entity. These risks are not specific to banks, any other business entity faces with them.

The classification submitted covers all types of banking operations. The advantages of this classification should include the allocation of the most problematic zones of financial risks in the Bank's activities, accounting for fluctuations in market rates, concretization of the risks of a business-event. When considering various classifications of financial risks, a morphological table of the risks of a commercial bank cannot be noted (Fig. 2) proposed by Savinskaya N.A., which can be used to create an informational and analytical base of systemic determination and research of bank risks.

Table 1.2. Morphological Table of Risk Commercial Bank

Morphological variable	Types of risk
Logistics links (stream type)	material	financial	information
Process type	innovative	infrastructure	industrial
Place in the system	at the exit	in the process	at the exit
Subjective factor	individual	collective

Such a classification allows you to determine the sources and types of risk by tracking links: the flow is a process - system characteristic is a subjective factor, as well as organize the structure and directions of a comprehensive analysis of emerging risks. After analyzing various risks classifications, we want to note that each commercial bank has its own risks, depending on the specifics of banking activities. Although all banks are inherent in balance and off-balanced risks, the risks of financial services and external risks, their combination, main zones, sizes and priority areas will be developed differently depending on the preferential specialization of banks, and therefore, it is different to characterize each type of banking activity in different ways . So, for banks, wide-dealing accumulation of free money and their placement among other credit institutions (Bank of Moscow, AKB Eurofinance), which determine the risks on deposit and deposit operations and on the possible return of interbank loans.

Banks specializing in innovation (Alfa-Bank OJSC, AKB ROSBANK, OJSC Investment bank "Trust") prevail the risks associated with long-term and medium-term lending to new technologies, i.e. Credit, market or portfolio risk. Banks specializing in servicing foreign trade operations (Bank OJSC Foreign trade", Gazprombank," Gazprombank ") carry mainly risks associated with changing the value of assets and liabilities due to changes in currency exchange rates, the risk of the cost of the transaction in the future in national currency, the risk of translation (differences in accounting of liabilities and is active in the involyut). Thus, it seems that the classification of financial risks in banks should be based on the six fundamental risks of the highlighted company "PricewaterhouseCoopers", which in the future each credit organisation Specifies and complements depending on the profile of its activities.

The primary task of any commercial bank is to develop a risk map, which must, first, to reflect the specifics of a specific credit institution; secondly, to display a holistic representation of the entire range of risks (however, in one group should not directly unite the risks of different levels of consideration); and, thirdly, allocate such characteristic signs risk, as a source, an object that is risk and a subject that perceives risk. The classification developed taking into account these requirements is intended for effective qualitative and quantitative risk assessment and is the basis for effective financial risk management of commercial banks.

1.3 Methods for assessing financial risks

Many financial operations (Venture Investment, Purchase of Shares, Seling Operations, Credit Operations, etc.) are associated with a rather significant risk. They require to assess the degree of risk and determine its magnitude.

The degree of risk is the probability of the occurrence of the case of losses, as well as the size of possible damage from it.

The risk can be:

· Allowable - there is a threat of full loss of profits from the implementation of the planned project;

· Critical - it is possible not only for profit, but also revenue and

coverage of losses at the expense of the entrepreneur;

· Catastrophic - possible loss of capital, property and bankruptcy of the entrepreneur.

Quantitative analysis is a definition of a specific amount of monetary damage of individual subspecies of financial risk and financial risk in aggregate. Sometimes a qualitative and quantitative analysis is made on the basis of an assessment of the influence of internal and external factors: an elemental assessment of the specific gravity of their influence on the work of this enterprise and its monetary expression is carried out. This method of analysis is quite laborious from the point of view of quantitative analysis, but brings its undoubted fruits in high-quality analysis. In this regard, more attention should be paid to the description of the methods of quantitative analysis of financial risk, since there are some skills for their competent application.

In absolute terms, the risk can be determined by the magnitude of possible losses in the onserial-real (physical) or value (monetary) expression. In relative terms, the risk is defined as the value of possible losses, attributed to a certain base, in the form of which is most convenient to accept either the property status of the enterprise or total costs resources for this type of business, or expected income (profit). Then the losses will be considered a random deviation of profits, income, revenue in the direction of decline. Compared to expected values. Entrepreneurial losses are primarily a random decline in entrepreneurial income. It is the magnitude of such losses and characterizes the degree of risk. Hence the risk analysis is primarily associated with the study of losses.

Depending on the magnitude of the likely loss, it is advisable to divide them into three groups:

· Losses whose value does not exceed the calculated profit, can be called admissible;

· Losses whose magnitude more settlement profits relate to the category of critical - such losses will have to compensate from the owner's pocket;

· The catastrophic risk is even more dangerous, in which the entrepreneur risks to incur losses exceeding all his property.

If it is possible to predict in one way or another, to estimate possible losses on this operation, then a quantitative risk assessment was obtained to which an entrepreneur is. Dividing the absolute value of possible losses on the calculated value of costs or profits, we obtain a quantitative risk assessment in relative terms, as a percentage.

Speaking that the risk is measured by the magnitude of possible probable losses, the random nature of such losses should be taken into account. The probability of an event occurs can be determined by an objective method and subjective. An objective method is used to determine the likelihood of an event on the basis of the calculus of the frequency with which this event occurs. The subjective method is based on the use of subjective criteria, which are based on various assumptions. Such assumptions may include judgment evaluating, his personal experience, assessment of the expert on the rating, the opinion of the consultant auditor, etc.

Thus, the basis of the assessment of financial risks is based on the dependence between the definite dimensions of the enterprise loss and the probability of their occurrence. This dependence finds an expression in the probability curve under construction of a certain level of loss.

The construction of a curve is an extremely difficult task, requiring employees dealing with financial risk issues, sufficient knowledge experiences. To construct the probability curve of a certain level of loss (risk curve) apply various methods: statistical; analysis of expediency costs; Expert estimate method; analytical method; Method of analogy. Among them should be especially distinguished by three: a statistical method, expert assessment method, analytical method.

The essence of the statistical method is that the statistics of losses and profits that occurred in this or similar production are being studied, the magnitude and frequency of obtaining one or another economic return are made up, the most likely forecast for the future is compiled. Undoubtedly, the risk is a probabilistic category, and this sense is the most reasonable from scientific positions to characterize and measure it as the likelihood of a certain level of loss. The probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result.

The financial risk, as well as any other, has a mathematically pronounced likelihood of a loss that relies on statistics and can be calculated with sufficiently high accuracy. To quantify the amount of financial risk, it is necessary to know all possible consequences of any separate action and the likelihood of the consequences themselves. In relation to economic problems, the methods of probability theory are reduced to determine the values \u200b\u200bof the probability of occurrence of events and to choose from possible events of the most preferable based on the greatest value of the mathematical expectation, which is equal to the absolute value of this event multiplied by the likelihood of its occurrence. The main tools of the statistical method for calculating financial risk: variation, dispersion and standard (rms) deviation.

Variation is a change in quantitative indicators during the transition from one result of the result to another.

Dispersion - measure of deviation of the actual knowledge from its average value.

Thus, the size of the risk, or the degree of risk, can be measured by two criteria: the average expected value, the volatility (variability) of a possible result. The average expected value is the value of the value of the event that is associated with an uncertain situation. It is a weighted average of all possible results, where the probability of each result is used as a frequency, or weight corresponding to the value. Thus, the result is calculated that is presumably expected.

Analysis of expediency costs is focused on identifying potential risk areas, taking into account the financial sustainability of the company. IN this case You can simply do with standard techniques financial Analysis The results of the activities of the main enterprise and the activities of its counterparties (bank, investment Fund, client enterprises, issuer enterprises, investor, buyer, seller, etc.)

The method of expert assessments is usually implemented by processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs and specialists. It differs from statistical only by collecting information to build a risk curve. This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists (this enterprise or external experts) of probabilities of the occurrence of different levels of losses. These estimates are based on accounting of all financial risk factors, as well as statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert estimates is significantly complicated if the number of evaluation indicators is small.

An analytical method for constructing a risk curve is most complex, since underlying its elements of the game theory are available only to very narrow specialists. The subspecies of the analytical method is more often used - the model sensitivity analysis.

Analysis of the sensitivity of the model consists of the following steps:

The choice of a key indicator relative to which the sensitivity is estimated (the internal rate of return, net reduced income, etc.);

The choice of factors (the level of inflation, the degree of state of the economy, etc.);

Calculation of key indicator values \u200b\u200bat various stages of the project (purchase of raw materials, production, sale, transportation, caption, etc.).

The costs of the costs and receipts of financial resources formed in this way make it possible to determine the flow of funds funds for each moment (or time segment), i.e. Determine the performance indicators. Diagrams are being built, reflecting the dependence of the selected resulting indicators from the value of the initial parameters. Comparing the obtained diagrams among themselves, the so-called key indicators can be determined, which most affecting the estimate of the profitability of the project.

Sensitivity analysis has also serious disadvantages: it is not comprehensive and does not specify the probability of alternative projects.

The method of analogy When analyzing the risk of a new project is very useful, since in this case the data on the consequences of the impact of adverse factors of financial risk on other similar projects of other competing enterprises are investigated.

Indexing is a way to preserve the real value of monetary resources (capital) and profitability in inflation. It is based on the use of various indices. For example, when analyzing and forecast of financial resources, it is necessary to consider the price change, for which prices are used. The price index is an indicator that characterizes the change in prices for a certain period of time.

Thus, the existing methods for constructing the probability curve of the occurrence of a certain level of losses are not equivalent, but one way or another allows you to make an approximate assessment of the total volume of financial risk.

2. Financial risk management CJSC VTB24

2.1 Characteristics of CJSC VTB24

Bank VTB 24 (closed joint-stock company) (Former name - Closed Joint Stock Company " Commercial Bank The development of entrepreneurial activities "Guta-Bank") was established on the basis of the decision of the General Meeting of the Participants of the Commercial Bank for the Development of Entrepreneurial Activities Guta-Bank (Limited Liability Company) (Protocol No. 77 of March 31, 2000 on the transformation of society).

The Bank is the successor of KB GUTA-Bank LLC for all its rights and responsibilities in accordance with the transfer act.

Until July 16, 2004, the Bank was part of the Group of Affiliated Companies - "Gut Group", implementing the functions of the main settlement center of the Group. In the summer of 2004, as a result of the "mini-crisis" in the banking market, the Bank collided with the problem of liquidity. The deficit of liquid funds has negatively affected the ability of the Bank to fulfill all the obligations on customer payments at the specified period. Since the owners of the bank - "Guta Group" could not consolidate funds for the operational restoration of the Bank's liquidity, on July 16, 2004, the sale agreement was signed. control package Bank shares (85.81%) OJSC Vneshtorgbank. Thus, the "Guta Group" has lost control over the Bank on July 16, 2004.

Despite the 2004 liquidity crisis, as well as a clientele's outflow and reduction of operations, the Bank managed not only to restore lost positions, but also to significantly increase the loan portfolio and resource base. On March 25, 2005, the Supervisory Board of Development of CJSC KB GUTA-BANK was approved by the Supervisory Board of OJSC, in accordance with which a specialized retail bank was created on the basis of the bank, focusing on servicing and lending to the population and small businesses within the VTB Group. As part of the approved development strategy and, in accordance with the decision of the General Meeting of Shareholders dated June 6, 2005, CJSC "KB GUTA-BANK" was renamed Retail services to ZAO. On the retail market, its activities were carried out using the trademark "Vneshtorgbank-24". On November 14, 2006, CJSC Vneshtorgbank Retail services was renamed VTB 24 (CJSC).

The bank has a general license issued Central Bank Russian Federation for banking operations in rubles and foreign currency with legal entities and individuals, license to carry out operations with precious metals, a dealer license in the securities market, a broker license in the futures market and options, etc.

The bank is a member of the Deposit Insurance System.

In 2005-1th half of 2006 The bank passed restructuring, received additional capital From the Mother Bank, received a new name and a new team of managers.

Bank VTB 24 (Closed Joint Stock Company) - is a credit commercial organization, the main purpose of which is profit.

Creating goals:

The Bank was created with the aim of obtaining profit in the implementation of banking operations CJSC KB GUTA-Bank specialized, mainly on the provision of settlement services and lending to the Gut Group. VTB 24 (CJSC) specializes in the provision banking services and lending to the population and small business enterprises.

2.2 Analysis of financial risks CJSC VTB 24

The formation of a financial risk management system is necessary, first of all, for such industrial enterprises, whose work indicators indicate unsatisfactory financial condition. This situation is reflected in the tables below.

Table 2.1. Profit change indicators

The analysis of the data of the table shows that revenue from implementation decreased in 2013 compared with 2012 by 2.11%, and in 2014 compared with 2013 - by 6.9%. Nonealization revenues increased in 2013 by 21%, and in 2014 compared with 2013 decreased by 113.3%. Operating income increased in 2013 by 39%, and in 2014 compared with 2013 decreased by 13.3%.

Credit risk are subject to investment of a credit organization - the Issuer in the debt obligations of corporations: bills, bonds, etc. In connection with the release of mortgage-coated bonds, the issuer is subject to credit risk on mortgage, which is included in the mortgage coating

Table 2.2. Formation of the costs produced by the organization

Indicator
		Specific weight,%	Absolute value, thousand rubles.	Specific weight,%	Absolute value, thousand rubles.	Specific weight,%
Material costs
Labor costs
Executions
Depreciation of fixed assets
Other costs

The data analysis of the table allows us to conclude that the costs produced by the organization increased in 2013 compared with 2012 by 271%, in 2014 compared with 2013 - by 3%. The greatest share in the composition of material costs was material costs (51% in 2012, 76.22% in 2013, 72.6% in 2014).

With regard to the formation of receivables, the analysis of the table data allows us to conclude that in the period from 2012-2014. The enterprise increases the level of receivables for up to 12 months.

Compared with 2012 in 2013, the growth occurred at 15074802 thousand rubles. or by 2838%. In 2008, compared with 2007, receivables rates increased by 23.5% and amounted to 19272833 thousand rubles. At the same time, the share of overdue receivables increased from 12.7% in 2012 to 79% in 2014. Received receivables for up to 12 months in 2014 by 384% more than in 2012, and in 2014 G. 87.6% than in 2013

Table 2.4. Formation of receivables

Indicator
	Absolute value, thousand rubles.		Absolute value, thousand rubles.		Absolute value, thousand rubles.
Arising receivables (up to 12 months)
Including Overdue
Around receivables (more than 12 months)
Including Overdue
Redeged B. reporting period (up to 12 months)
Including Overdue
Repaid in the reporting period (more than 12 months)
Including Overdue

Analysis of the movement of fixed assets led to the following conclusions:

1) For 2012 - 2014 there was an increase in the deadline for updating fixed assets, which led to an increase in the renewal coefficient of fixed assets from 2.48 in 2012 to 5.77 in 2014

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Structural analysis of the resource base and active operations of the commercial bank. Analysis of the quality of assets and liabilities. Ways to improve the analysis of the financial condition of a commercial bank as a basis for managing its activities, on the example of KB "NatsBusinessbank" (LLC).

thesis, added 09.12.2013


The process of comparison, grouping, elimination as methods for assessing the financial condition of a commercial bank. Analysis of the structure of income and expenses of a credit institution. Determination of profit and loss for the preparation of financial results of the bank.

In the course of its activities, commercial banks are subject to multiple risks. In general, bank risks are divided into four categories: Financial, operational, business and emergency.

Financial risks In turn, include two types of risks: clean and speculative. Pure risks Including credit risk, liquidity and solvency risks, can lead to a loss of bank in improper management. Speculative risks Funded in financial arbitration may have their result of profit if the arbitration is carried out correctly, or loss - otherwise. The main types of speculative risk: interest, currency and market (or positional).

Different types of financial risks, moreover, are closely related to each other, which can significantly increase the overall bank profile risk. For example, a bank exercising currency transactions is usually subject to currency risk, but it will also be under an additional liquidity risk and interest risk in the event that there will be open positions or discrepancies in the periods of requirements and obligations in the net position on urgent operations.

Operating risks depend on: the general business strategy of the bank; his organization; functioning of internal systems, including computer and other technologies; consistency of the Bank's policy and its procedures; measures aimed at preventing errors in management and against fraud. Business risks are associated with an external banking business environment, including macroeconomic and political factors, legal conditions and regulatory conditions, as well as with the overall infrastructure of the financial sector and the payment system. Extreme risks include all types of exogenous risks, which, in the event of an event, are able to expose the activities of the bank or undermine its financial condition and capital adequacy.

We characterize financial risks related to pure risks, i.e. leading in the event of a risk case only to negative consequences.

Deposit risk - Risk associated with the possibility of non-return of deposit deposits (deferences of deposit certificates). This risk is rarely found and is associated with an unsuccessful choice of a commercial bank for the implementation of deposit operations of the enterprise. Nevertheless, cases of implementation of deposit risk are found not only in our country, but also in countries with a developed market economy. Abroad, the insured of this type of risk is the bank, and the insurance is carried out in a mandatory form.

Credit risk - The risk associated with the danger of non-payment by the borrower of the principal debt and interest due to the creditor. The causes of the occurrence of credit risk may be the unscrupulousness of the borrower, the deterioration of the competitive position of a particular company, adverse economic conjuncture.