In 1990 Hungary began the transition to a free market economy... Some important economic measures were taken in the early 1990s, but major reforms began in 1995 when Finance Minister Lajos Bokrosh presented his radical agenda.
The new government began to introduce a market economy by reducing the share state property, increasing the share of foreign capital in investments and removing obstacles to freeing up the market and introducing open competition. By 1994, the share of the private sector in the domestic gross product increased to 45%, and foreign direct investment increased from 200 million to 5 billion dollars. However, the abrupt transition caused a significant budget deficit and put many on the brink of survival. In 1995, after the introduction of the Bokroš reforms, Hungary's progress towards a market economy gained momentum. Foreign investment continued to grow, accounting for half of all foreign investment in the countries of the former eastern bloc. In 1995 more than $ 4 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI) was sent to Hungary, in 1996 and 1997 $ 3.6 billion were invested.
National income. In the 1980s, Hungary was the only Soviet bloc country (excluding Romania) to publish statistics national income, which corresponded to the generally accepted world. In 1980, Hungary's gross domestic product (GDP) - the value of goods and services produced domestically - was roughly the equivalent of $ 20 billion, or about $ 2,000 per capita. In the late 1980s, GDP began to stagnate, and during transition period In the 1990s, the gross domestic product in the economy began to decline. In 1991, GDP was 11.9% below the 1990 level. By 1996, Hungary's gross national product had increased to the equivalent of $ 75 billion (or $ 7,500 per person).
In 2003, Hungary's GDP was $ 139.8 trillion, or $ 13.900 per capita.
Labor resources. In the postwar period, the main structural change in system labor resources the flow of labor from agriculture (in which in 1949 more than half of all employed people in the country worked) to industry. In 1949-1983, the number of people employed in the mining and manufacturing industries increased to 857,000, while in agriculture it decreased to 1,113,000. The number of employed registered in 1992 was distributed as follows: 29% - in industry; 15% - in health care, social infrastructure and culture; 14% - in agriculture and forestry; 13% - in trade; and 9% in transport and telecommunications. Another important change in the structure of employment was the increase in the proportion of women; in 1949 they accounted for only 25% of the employed, but in 1994 the figure was 52.8%. The corresponding trend slowed down somewhat in the second half of the 1990s, as a result, the share of women in the workforce dropped to 49.8%.
The transition to capitalism in the early 1990s caused a sharp rise in the unemployment rate: the number of registered unemployed increased from 79,521 people in 1990 to 657,331 people at the end of 1993. However, starting in 1994, the unemployment rate began to decline slowly and reached 10% at the end of 1998.
Agriculture. 70% of the territory of Hungary is occupied by agricultural land. Forests cover 17% of the territory. The main agricultural regions of the country are located on the plains of the central and eastern parts of Hungary.
In the post-communist period beginning in 1990, the government embarked on a large-scale program of agricultural restructuring and privatization. Landowners were returned to their property, many cooperatives were disbanded, and their lands were privatized. It was not about going back to old small-land agriculture; it seemed reasonable to move to a mixed system consisting of private and family farms, land associations and reorganized cooperatives based on shared ownership and market-oriented manufacturing. Already in 1995, only about 30.6% of suitable land was cultivated by cooperatives, 17.6% was in state ownership, the rest of the land belonged to individuals and enterprises.
Despite a severe drought in the early 1990s and difficulties associated with the transition to a market economy, agricultural products continued to be an important export item. In 1992, agriculture accounted for about 16.5% of GDP, but production of staple crops declined as attempts to enter new markets and new farming methods led to an inevitable temporary decline.
In 1997 Hungary processed 717,000 tons of grapes, of which 612 tons were used to make wine. Wine production in 1997 amounted to 394 million liters, about a fourth of it is exported.
At the same time, the number of livestock has increased significantly, especially the number of pigs. In 1997, Hungary had 4.93 million pigs, 871,000 head of cattle, 858,000 million sheep and 31 million poultry.
Fish industry. Fish ponds supplied with fry from incubators cover more than 25,300 hectares. 0.3% of the entire territory of the country. Fish for commercial purposes are also caught in the Danube and Lake Balaton. In 1992, the total catch of fish, primarily carp, was 20,000 tons.
Forestry. Hungary was gradually restoring its forests, which in 1998 covered an area of more than 1.6 million hectares, i.e. 17% of the entire territory of the country. The country imports a large amount of timber every year.
Extractive industry. Hungary has very limited mineral resources. The only minerals found in significant quantities are bauxite from Lake Balaton. In 1983 Hungary was the seventh largest producer of bauxite in the world - 2.9 million tons were mined.However, by the end of the 1990s, many mines were closed, and bauxite production dropped to about 1 million tons, down from 1.7 million tons. tons in 1992. Near Pecs and Komlo in the south-west there are small reserves of low-grade anthracite, and in the Budapest region there are large deposits of brown coal (lignite). In 1985, 2.6 million tons of anthracite and 21.4 million tons of brown coal were mined in Hungary; in 1991 their production dropped to 1.6 million tons of anthracite and 15.3 million tons of brown coal. Iron ore deposits are located in the Miskolc region (in the north-east). Hungary produces small quantities of oil and natural gas from a well in the Szeged Basin and the Zala region in the southwest of the country. In 1998, 3.5 million tons of oil and 4.7 billion cubic meters were produced here. m of natural gas. There is uranium ore in Hungary, but all information about its production is classified.
Energy. In 1997, of the total energy consumed (1055 petajoules), about 69.3% of it came from hydrocarbon sources, 12.6% from coal, 10.1% from nuclear energy, 7% from exported electricity, 1.0% from wood.
In 1997 Hungary consumed 37,215 megawatt hours of electricity, 93% of which was produced domestically. In 1983, a nuclear power plant came into operation at Pakse, on the Danube, south of Budapest. The 4 reactors at Paks in 1997 produced 13,968 megawatts of electricity, accounting for approximately 38% of the country's total energy consumption.
Manufacturing industry. Until the 1970s, successive five-year plans channeled a significant portion of investment into heavy industry, especially in those industries that produced iron and steel, industrial equipment, trucks and buses, cement and chemicals. After the introduction of the New Economic Mechanism in 1968, more attention was paid to the development of the food industry - the main source of export sales in capitalist markets - and the production of computers, precision engineering products, research instruments, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, communication equipment and consumer goods. goods. Although most Hungarian factories were so outdated and inefficient that their products could only find export markets within the Soviet bloc, Hungary by the mid-1980s had developed modern industries that required highly skilled workers, allowing them to enter international markets.
Although more than one fifth of Hungary's national income came from manufacturing, heavy industry was in deep crisis by the early 1990s due to high production costs, limited stocks mineral resources, and outdated equipment and mechanisms. Key industrial complexes in Debrecen and Gyr continued to work, but in traditional metallurgical centers, like Dunaujvaros and Miskolc, unemployment rates rose rapidly.
Transport. Budapest is the central hub of the Hungarian transport system, which in 1995 included 1576 km of navigable waterways, 69 957 km of roads and 7635 km railways(1998), of which about 29% were electrified. The Budapest airports Ferihegy-1 and Ferihegy-2 serve both domestic and international airlines.
In the 1950s, almost 80% of all goods were transported by rail, and only 13% were transported by cars. By 1992, only about 41% of all cargo was transported by rail and 40% by road. but railway transport continued to carry the bulk of long-distance cargo. Water transport is especially important for the transport of heavy goods such as iron ore and coal. Except for the coldest part of winter, the Danube is navigable along its entire length in Hungary, and the Tisza to Szolnok.
Domestic trade and services. From the end of World War II to the fall of communism, all wholesale and almost all retail carried out by state-owned firms. In 1989, nearly 40,000 retail and food outlets were located in private property... In 1992, their number reached 111,513, and by 1997 - 152,000 (two-thirds of all stores).
By 1997, more than four-fifths of the officially registered service market was occupied by private firms.
Foreign trade and payments. Before World War II, Hungary traded mainly with European countries, and the Soviet Union accounted for less than 1% of its trade. In the first decade after the communists came to power, about 90% of Hungary's foreign trade was with the countries of the Soviet bloc. The main export items were heavy industry equipment, ships, locomotives and transport equipment, chemicals, textiles, oil and oil products, ore and products; imports - machine tools, agricultural equipment, coke, iron, cotton, wool and timber. After 1958 Hungary expanded trade with the West and third world countries. By 1982, the countries of the Soviet bloc accounted for 55.2% of foreign trade.
In the 1980s, West Germany became Hungary's main trading partner outside the Soviet bloc. In 1992, Germany accounted for 23.5% of imports and 27.7% of exports; to the successor countries of the former Soviet Union - 16.9% of imports and 13.1% of exports. Austria and Italy were other important trading partners in the early 1990s. Business relations with the United States developed, although the volume of trade was not so significant (2.9% of imports and 3.2% of exports).
In 1995, the total volume of Hungary's foreign trade was $ 28 billion.Exports reached $ 13 billion, and imports - $ 15 billion.The main items of export are machinery and transport equipment, clothing, footwear, chemical products, medicines, petroleum products, iron and steel. The main imports are oil and oil products, natural gas, textiles and products from it, iron and steel, cars, vehicles and spare parts for them.
Until the early 1970s, exports and imports were balanced. However, during the 1970s, import costs, especially oil, grew significantly faster than export earnings. Already in 1981 Hungary had to export 25% more goods to cover the volume of imports. As a result, a serious trade deficit was formed, which was covered by foreign loans. They were obtained almost entirely from Western banks and the International Monetary Fund, which led to an increase in Hungary's debt from less than $ 1 million in 1970 to $ 25.5 billion in 1997.
Tourism. In the 1950s, most tourists came from other countries of the Soviet bloc, but in the 1960s Hungary began to encourage tourists from Western countries. The number of such tourists increased from 244,000 in 1960 to 37.6 million in 1990 and to 40 million in 1996.
Hungary is the eighth most attractive country in the world. Hungary has a number of spas that are equipped with modern physiotherapy facilities, and Lake Balaton, with its hotels and wide range of recreational facilities, is the most popular tourist destination. The largest number of tourists come from Romania (mainly because there is a significant ethnic Hungarian minority), Germany, Austria, Yugoslavia and the republics of the former Yugoslavia. The number of tourists from America reached 390,000 in 1996. In 1996 and 1997, annual tourism revenues were $ 2.2 billion and $ 2.6 billion, respectively.
Currency and banking. Monetary unit is forint. Until 1976 the forint had several parallel exchange rates. One rate was set relative to "hard" currencies that could be used to purchase goods in the West; this was the so-called "foreign" exchange rate. The non-commercial course was used for tourism and transfer of money from abroad, and the commercial course was used during foreign trade and was half of the non-profit course. In 1976 the foreign exchange rate was abolished, and in 1981 the non-commercial and commercial rates were merged.
In the mid-1990s, most of Hungary's large banks were state-owned. The National Bank is central to the management of the Hungarian economy. In addition to their own banking functions - issuing money and establishing interest rate, he manages the commercial banking business, accepts deposits, provides loans to corporations and cooperatives for investment and working capital, and also deals with foreign trade transactions. Many banks accept major types of credit cards, but most consumer transactions in Hungary are carried out with cash. Hungary's foreign exchange reserve in 1998 was $ 8.8 billion.
Public finance. The state budget still dominates the economy. In 1998, central government spending accounted for 56% of the officially approved gross national product (GNP). The budget deficit in 1998 was 2.9% of GNP, falling sharply to this figure (from 8.4%) in 1994. One of the main goals of the Bokrosh program is to eliminate the budget deficit.
The largest part of government spending, about 40% in 1997, goes to subsidies to budgetary organizations. Approximately 24% is allocated to social insurance and assistance programs, 27% - on debt service and interest payments, 8.4% is spent on subsidies state enterprises, agriculture and consumer price support. Tax revenues account for approximately 14% of the income tax of state and cooperative enterprises, 37.4% of taxes on individual consumption (additional taxation of luxury goods, excise taxes), 18.2% of family payments (taxation of personal property, social insurance, etc. .), 13.9% of payments budgetary organizations, 9% of proceeds from the payment of capital debt and interest on public debt and 7.5% from privatization taxes.
Hungary (Hungarian People's Republic of)- a state located in the central part. Occupies an area of 93 thousand km2. It has no outlet to the sea, but on its territory important transport routes intersect, connecting different parts of Europe. The Danube waterway connects Hungary with a number of neighboring ones.
The population of Hungary is 10.6 million. Over 96% of residents are Hungarians. Germans and Romanians also live in Hungary. indicates a demographic crisis - a natural decline in the population. One of the reasons for this is a violation of normal age and sex structure population as a result of the Second World War. The official language is Hungarian. Believers are predominantly. Hungary belongs to the countries with a high level: about 60% of citizens live in cities. The capital of the state is the city of Budapest, where 2/3 of the country's industry is concentrated and 20% of the total population of Hungary (2.1 million inhabitants) live.
Although Hungary has its own coal and gas, its reserves do not fully cover the country's needs, so for a long time it imported oil and gas from neighboring states - the former USSR... V recent times Hungary begins its own oil development in the southeast of the country. Both thermal power plants and nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants play an important role.
The country exports buses (30% of all exports), electronics, agricultural products (25% of all exports): wine, canned vegetables and fruits, pharmaceutical products.
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Let's start with the fact that the basis of wealth natural resources Hungary has a fertile land and a favorable climate. These natural benefits are realized in agriculture.
In Hungarian agriculture since the early 1990s. there were often signs of a crisis, which was then explained by the general recession of the economy as a whole and the large loss of the number of markets in connection with the collapse of the CMEA.
The export of agricultural products to the EU countries also suffered.
The reason for this was not the relationship between the EU and Hungary, but the internal problems of the agricultural sector. To be more precise, it was and insufficient funding, and belated modernization of the industry and low competitiveness.
The agricultural products of Hungary are: wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, potatoes, sugar beets; pigs, cattle, poultry, dairy products.
The Hungarian government directs its agricultural policy to strengthen the role of agriculture in the economy, especially in the sectors traditional for this country: the production of corn, wheat, meat, vegetables, fruits, wine.
Agricultural land in Hungary is 6.1 million hectares, of which more than 50% is arable land. Ear crops occupy 1.5 million hectares, corn - 1.0 million hectares.
Crop production is represented mainly by grain farming, as well as vegetable growing and horticulture (including viticulture).
Livestock provides over 60% of domestic agricultural income. The most developed are, as mentioned above, pig breeding, cattle breeding for meat and dairy production, poultry farming. Needs domestic market Sheep breeding and fish farming in artificial reservoirs are also satisfactory.
Industry
Hungary has favorable agro-climatic and recreational conditions. After analyzing its position, we can conclude that this country is very favorably located geographically. But the only minerals found in significant quantities are bauxite mined near Lake Balaton. In 1983 Hungary was the seventh largest producer of bauxite in the world - 2.9 million tons of it were mined. The main mineral of Hungary is coal. Mainly brown coal and lignites are widespread. Production is carried out in the area of the cities of Tatabanya, Dorog, Shalgataryan, Gyendyosh, Ozd, Miskolts. The presence of other minerals in the country was already mentioned in Chapter I.
The manufacturing industry is the most developed (90.6% of GDP) The leading manufacturing industry is mechanical engineering, including:
* Automotive industry (the Ikarus plant in Budapest and Szekesfehervar is the largest bus manufacturer in Europe).
* Production of locomotives, ships, cranes.
* Electrical and radio-electronic industry (including the production of communications, computers, medical equipment and devices (Budapest, Szekesfehervar)).
* Machine-tool industry (Budapest, Miskolc, Esztergom).
* Production of agricultural machinery and equipment for light and food industries.
Produced electrical products, electronics, engines, diesel locomotives, motorcycles, buses, river boats, industrial equipment, televisions and radios, household appliances and others. There are enterprises of ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy.
In the chemical industry, an important place is occupied by the production of mineral fertilizers, plant protection products, organic synthesis products, the rubber industry, various types of plastics, synthetic materials... Pharmaceutical production has reached a relatively high level (15% of the value of industrial products). With a long tradition, the industry relies on a strong research base that continually develops more and more effective means of combating various diseases.
The food industry is significant: large meat and dairy and canning enterprises. From industries light industry the most developed are sewing, leather and footwear, and knitwear. Hungarian fabrics, ready-to-wear, footwear, furniture, as well as products of the meat-processing and canning industry enjoy well-deserved fame in many countries of the world.
The food industry relies almost entirely on the domestic raw material base, while some branches of the light industry require significant imports of raw materials and semi-finished products. Hungary imports cotton, wool, flax, raw leather, timber, cellulose.
In Hungary, as in many other countries, a large number of industries are developed, but I would like to dwell in more detail on such as oil refining. (see appendix 3)
Commercial oil production in Hungary began in 1937, and a year later the Hungarian-American Society was created. oil industry, in force before the start of the Second World War.
The leading role in the Hungarian fuel and energy market is played by the oil and gas joint-stock company Mol. JSC Mol is, in fact, a monopoly association for the production, processing and sale of natural gas, oil and products of their processing on the domestic and foreign markets. The total sales of the company in 2009 amounted to 15,947 million dollars.
Mol JSC owns four centers for oil refining and production of petroleum products. These are: Danube Oil Refinery in Sazhalombatta, Tisaysky Oil Refinery in Tisaujvaros, ZALA Oil Refinery in Zalaegerszeg and an oil refinery in Almashfyuzite. Oil distillation is carried out only at the Danube Oil Refinery, which was commissioned in 1965. As a result economic reforms and rationalization of production, only semi-finished products are produced at Tisaysky Oil Refinery, and special bitumen is produced at ZALA NPZ. Since July 2002, only various types of oils and additives have been produced at the plant in Almashfyuzit.
The decline in sales of various brands of gasoline over the past two years was caused by the global financial crisis. The increase in sales of diesel fuel was caused by an increase in the fleet of various types of transport with diesel engines, as well as the lower cost of diesel fuel compared to gasoline.
According to the management of the Hungarian Petroleum Association, as well as experts from the company Lukoil Hungary, present on the Hungarian retail market for petroleum products, the dynamics of retail prices for motor fuel in Hungary does not depend on fluctuations in the cost of producing petroleum products.
The main price benchmark for participants in the Hungarian retail market is the weekly revised indicative average price for gasoline and diesel fuel, set by the pricing committee of the Hungarian national oil company Like. Determination of indicative prices is carried out by the Pricing Committee based on the analysis of wholesale prices of European oil markets (Genoa, Italy and Rotterdam, Holland), published daily on www.platts.com, taking into account the following main factors: trends in wholesale prices for oil products in European markets; dynamics of the Hungarian forint exchange rate against the European currency; excise tax on motor fuel; collection for the maintenance of strategic reserves of oil and oil products; general turnover tax (analogous to VAT); other factors.
Fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint against the European currency also significantly affect the formation of retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition to regulating the excise tax, the state can also provide, on the basis of the law on the formation of mandatory strategic stocks of imported crude oil and petroleum products, the Association for Oil and Petroleum Products Reserves (KKKSz.) Was established, which provides for compulsory membership of all market participants. In accordance with the law, the Association must ensure the accumulation of strategic reserves corresponding to the 90-day volumes of domestic consumption, calculated based on the results of the previous year.
Strategic reserves consist of motor gasoline, diesel fuel, power plant fuels and crude oil. In the short term, Hungary's dependence on Russian energy supplies and raw materials will remain.
Hungarian industry is quite dependent on the state of the world market: more than half (52%) of all industrial production is exported. Large enterprises export - depending on the industry - 60-80% of their products. The needs of the domestic market are mainly satisfied by small and medium-sized enterprises (the number of employees, respectively, up to 50 and up to 300 people).
Russian diplomats have always carefully approached the analysis of affairs in the Hungarian half of the Danube Empire. In addition to the traditional collection of information about the country of residence of the diplomatic mission, several specific factors also manifested themselves here. The first is the attitude towards Austria-Hungary, as a quite probable adversary, with whom sooner or later Russia may enter into hostilities, which required the availability of comprehensive information about the economic potential of the empire, without which it was impossible to conduct strategic planning scenario of a possible armed conflict with Austria-Hungary. Hence, the Russian military department was one of the main consumers of information coming from the Russian Consulate General in Budapest. It should be noted that the military department also tried to independently collect information about Austria-Hungary, using the contacts of the naval and military attaches who were at the Russian embassy in Vienna.
The territory of Hungary was practically adjacent to the borders Russian Empire, which once again actualized for the Russian political and military establishment the importance of studying Hungary and its economy. In Russia, they closely followed the economic successes of Hungary. Hungary was the main food producer in Austria-Hungary. In Hungary, new high-tech industrial sectors developed, primarily electrical and defense. Hungary extracted minerals of exceptional military-strategic importance for the belligerent country, and in this regard, Russia was interested in the mining and metallurgical industry of Hungary. In addition, in Russia they were interested in the development of the country's transport infrastructure, including the possibilities of the port in Fiume. This was directly related to the assessment of the mobilization capabilities of Austria-Hungary and its army. Hungary by virtue of its geographic location was located between the Russian and Balkan theaters of operations and the speed of movement of the troops of the Habsburg Empire largely depended on its transport systems.
However, the Hungarian economy attracted the attention of not only Russian diplomats and the military, but also representatives of Russian business. V late XIX v. economic relations between Russia and Hungary are beginning to gradually emerge from a state of stupor. And although their volume was still insignificant and did not correspond economic potential The two countries, both in Hungary and in Russia, showed mutual interest among a significant part of business representatives. Therefore, the economic circles of Russia demanded from the diplomats complete information about the development of the Hungarian national economy.
Special attention to Hungary was fueled by another circumstance. The development of the economies of the two countries coincided in many respects. Russia and Hungary relatively late embarked on the path of industrialization, in both countries the agricultural sector and agricultural exports were of exceptional importance. Both in Hungary and in Russia the task of modernizing agriculture was acute; both countries were highly dependent on external investment. Already at the beginning of the twentieth century. in the two countries are beginning to take into account each other's experience when conducting economic policy... Therefore, the Consul General in Budapest V. Lvov sought to provide St. Petersburg with complete information about the successes and failures of the Hungarian economy. For the national economy of Hungary, Prince V. Lvov was skeptical about the results of 1900: “Hungary has never been under the pressure of such an oppressive economic situation, never was she so deeply aware of her weakness, never was her condition more bleak, and the prospects for the near future were not marked with greater gloom, as at the time of summing up the results of the past year (1900 - IK). " The Consul General singled out two sections of the reasons for this state of affairs in Hungary. On the one hand, these were the miscalculations of the Hungarian government, on the other hand, the crisis in Hungary was aggravated by the conjuncture on world markets and Budapest could not influence this circumstance.
The economic upturn in Hungary at the end of the 19th century, in the consul's view, collided with the limited capacity of the country's consumer market. A significant part of the population of Hungary had low level income, so they did not act as active consumers of industrial products. Moreover, in the conditions economic crisis that struck Hungary at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, there is a drop in the standard of living of broad strata of the population, which could not but aggravate the situation in the country's consumer market. Hence the Hungarian industry had no more room for further expansion of production.
The situation in the national economy of Hungary, according to Lvov, was complicated by the uncertainty of the economic relations between Austria and Hungary, as well as the growing competition from the Austrian industry. At the beginning of the twentieth century. in Austria, anti-Hungarian sentiments are growing, including among representatives of Austrian business. They looked at Hungary as a dependent within the Danube Empire, and Austria, being the economic center of the empire, bore more than 60% of the total imperial expenses. In addition, Vienna was quite happy with the situation when Hungary was an agrarian appendage of Austria.
All this, in the opinion of the consul, contributed to the spread in Hungary of the idea of complete economic independence of the kingdom of St. Stephen from Austria. The Consul General saw in this state of affairs a great danger to the unity of the empire. "In Austria they do not want to understand that open and secret hostility towards Hungary should induce it to a radical solution of the highest economic problem (obtaining complete economic independence of Hungary from Austria. - IK)." If Austria and Hungary broke the economic union, both sides would lose from this. Austria in this case was losing a capacious market for its industrial goods, where competition from other states was limited by customs barriers, and Hungary was deprived of a profitable market for its agricultural products, it was losing much needed Austrian technologies, investments and loans. Thus, the Consul General was not one of those politicians and diplomats who believed that if Hungary gained full economic independence, National economy will receive some benefits, rightly noting the enormous Negative consequences for the Hungarian economy in case of severing economic ties with Austria.
The collapse of the single economic space called into question the existence of the dualistic monarchy itself. V. Lvov was sympathetic to the economic ambitions of Hungary. He believed that Hungary can no longer be an agrarian and raw material appendage of Austria, since the profitability of agriculture in the world was falling, European agrarians could not compete with agricultural producers in the New World countries, and above all with the United States. Regarding the active penetration of agricultural products from the United States into Europe, V. Lvov noted: “There is no way to curb this heightened competition with reactionary legislative measures, it can be fought only by developing productive forces, by freeing consumers from excessive tax burdens and, finally, by uniting all branches of production, with the ultimate goal of the economic unification of Europe ”. Hence, the industrialization of Hungary became the most important strategic task for Budapest.
This statement of the Consul General can be considered revolutionary for its time, when high customs duties and the erection of other prohibitive barriers in Europe and the United States were seen as the main panacea for competition with foreign manufacturers. V. Lvov can rightfully be attributed to the pioneers of the idea of European integration in the Russian Foreign Ministry, these views were expressed by V. Lvov more than once. V. Lvov believed that prohibitive customs duties were incapable of improving the economy, only the modernization of the national economy and the growth of the cultural level of the population were able to bring the Hungarian and other European economies out of the crisis. Speaking about the industrialization of Hungary, V. Lvov constantly noted the vital need for the country to modernize its agriculture. In his opinion, the Hungarian government has done something in this direction. In particular, he praised government regulation labor relations in the agricultural sector, the construction of irrigation systems, the patronage of the distillery industry, the expansion of lending to agricultural producers, an attempt to create a system that would facilitate the marketing of agricultural products in Hungary and abroad, the expansion budget financing Agriculture. At the same time, the consul wrote: "... but it should be noted with regret that the Hungarian agrarians continued their tireless agitation against other branches of the state's economic life, namely industry and trade." In the opinion of V. Lvov, the agrarians should not have forgotten that Hungary's agriculture would fail if successes in the country's agrarian sector were not accompanied by an upsurge in industry and trade in Hungary. The country's agriculture could not successfully develop locally without ties with other sectors of the economy.
World economy at the beginning of the twentieth century. found herself in a difficult situation. The Anglo-Boer War, political instability in China, a wave of strike movement in the leading European countries, the coal crisis, panic on the stock exchanges led to the destabilization of the economic system. In these conditions, investors begin to panic and withdraw their assets from developing economies, including Hungary, Russia, and the countries of the Balkan Peninsula. Hungary belonged to those countries that had very limited domestic investment, they largely depended in their economic development on the inflow foreign capital therefore, its outflow at the beginning of the century hurt their economies. Domestic investors could not make up for the losses associated with the flight from the country foreign investors what Hungary faced in 1900-1901. “All the above-mentioned phenomena completely destroyed the influence of other people's welfare and accumulation of foreign capital observed in Hungary,” wrote V. Lvov on this matter.
The Consul General also singled out the internal Hungarian factors that led the economy to a deep crisis. First of all, this included internal political instability and the split of the ruling elite on the issue of ways of further economic development Hungary. Here the interests of agrarians, industrialists and representatives of trade business intersected. For all his sympathy for the industrialization of Hungary, V. Lvov believed that a dangerous bias had arisen in the country in favor of industry and to the detriment of the interests of the country's agriculture.
The Consul General paid great attention to the anti-crisis policy of the Hungarian government. The diplomat was only perplexed by the appeals of Hungarian politicians and businessmen to the consumer about the need to purchase only domestic goods. It was, in his opinion, absolutely pointless. First, Hungarian industry was weak and could not fully fill the country's consumer market. Secondly, the consumer, in his preferences in the market, is guided not by patriotism, but by such categories as the quality and price of goods.
V. Lvov paid great attention to other manifestations of the anti-crisis policy of the Hungarian government, the construction of new industrial enterprises, supporting small-scale industry, stimulating technical and vocational education workers, the development of the navy, all that in the future could lead to the economic recovery of Hungary. Moreover, there was one important prerequisite for this, despite the crisis, the Hungarians did not lose their optimism and faith in the great future of their country.
Appreciating the efforts of the Hungarian government to bring the country out of the crisis, V. Lvov could not help but pay attention to the alarming symptoms. Thus, Budapest pursued a policy of uniting small traders into large associations. The government believed that these measures would save small traders from ruin and lead to the further development of trade. But the consul drew attention to two dangerous moments associated with this process. Firstly, the associations of traders were created strictly on a confessional basis, and not on the basis of economic expediency, and, secondly, the associations immediately demanded subsidies from the state, which was never done by small traders. V. Lvov will elaborate in detail the topic of Hungarian business' excessive dependence on the state in 1902.
V. Lvov devoted considerable attention to the analysis of affairs in individual sectors of the Hungarian national economy. In the country's industry, he noted contradictory processes against the background of a general decline in industrial production. In the conditions of the coal crisis in Europe and strikes of miners in Bohemia in Hungary, coal production is increasing, he even uses the term "coal boom". In addition, an increase in production was noted in the sugar, distillery industry and those enterprises that were under the control of the syndicates. The consul saw the monopolization of Hungarian industry as one of the ways to strengthen its positions inside Hungary and abroad.
The economic crisis, which began in 1899, developed in such sectors of industrial production as construction and production of building materials, metallurgy and mechanical engineering. In the context of the economic crisis, consumer interest in purchasing real estate always decreases, which also affected Hungary at the turn of the 19th - 20th centuries. The decline in the construction sector reached alarming proportions. The reduction in the construction of railways in Hungary, according to the consul, led to a deep crisis in the metallurgy and machine-building industry in Hungary. This situation was aggravated by the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian iron syndicate, which led to increased competition in the metallurgy of Austria and Hungary. Industrial recession led to an increase in the number of unemployed among Hungarian workers, which could not exacerbate social tensions in the country. This was combined with a drop in level wages in Hungary and rising cost of living.
This circumstance forced the Hungarian government to conduct an active social policy... Assessing its results, the consul wrote: “During the reporting year (1900 - IK) the Hungarian government perfectly regulated the situation of agricultural workers. As for the factory workers, the Hungarian industry, unfortunately, is too weak to assume the same heavy obligations that lie on the industry in Austria and Germany. " V. Lvov, on the whole, assessed positively the efforts of the Hungarian government to develop social legislation, which is confirmed by his subsequent reports. However, he understood perfectly well that the development of social legislation is directly related to the level of labor productivity in industry, any reduction in the working day and increase in wages are impossible without industrial production reaching a new qualitative level. Social benefits unsupported by technological innovations lead to the collapse of industrial production in any country, especially in such "young" industrial countries as Hungary. The Consul General showed a gap in industrial development Austria and Hungary, therefore Austria, unlike Hungary, could pursue a more decisive social policy, including in the "labor question".
In agriculture, the harvest of 1900 turned out to be very mediocre, not justifying the hopes that the Hungarian agrarians placed on it at the beginning of the year. It was about 3% below the average for the last 5 years. All this was accompanied by low grain prices on the world market and a drop in wool prices, despite some growth in the late 19th century. True, successes were noted in the production of grapes in the country, the consul especially emphasized the high quality of grapes in 1900. The same successes were noted in the production of fruits and vegetables.
Economic instability affected the development of the country's financial and banking system. Hungary's balance of payments deficit was constantly covered by loans and temporary budget items. Savings of the population practically did not grow, the volume of credit operations of Budapest banks decreased, if on January 1, 1899 they amounted to 515 million kroons, then on January 1, 1900, only 480 million kroons. All this led to a drop in the exchange rate of the Hungarian valuable papers and the volume of transactions in Hungarian stock exchanges... True, among the reasons for the stock market crisis, the consul singled out not only economic instability. The Hungarian government introduced an exchange tax and limited the independence of exchanges to combat exchange speculation, which could not but affect the volumes. exchange transactions... The crisis also affected the country's insurance sector. Despite all the difficulties, the Hungarian banks managed to avoid significant losses, and this was largely caused by the actions of the State Bank of Austria-Hungary, which with its clear and competent policy mitigated the consequences of the economic crisis and accumulated gold reserves of the Danube Empire.
In the transport of the country, ambiguous processes were also taking place. In 1900, the volume of traffic on the railways increased. At the same time, the river fleet was stagnant, and the sea fleet, on the contrary, increased the volume of traffic. This was also associated with a slight increase in the export of Hungarian goods outside the Danube Empire. True, the Hungarian trade balance itself aroused serious concern in the consul. The country was completely dependent on the export of sugar, coal and timber, which made its position in the world market vulnerable, diversification of Hungarian exports was necessary, but for this it was necessary to develop industrial production focused on the production of export products, and even Austria had problems with this.
Great concern among the Hungarian elite and V. Lvov was caused by Germany's increase in customs duties on the import of Hungarian agricultural products. Budapest and St. Petersburg understood perfectly well that this would lead to aggravation of competition between Russian and Hungarian producers in the markets of other European countries and that the interests of Russian and Hungarian agrarians would suffer in this struggle. Lvov was also afraid of this, bringing his warnings to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Empire.
The interest of the Russian side in matters in the Hungarian economy is evidenced by the fact that the Consulate General in Budapest forwarded to St. Petersburg the annual reports of the Ministers of Trade and Agriculture of Hungary in the country's parliament, materials of parliamentary debates on this matter and a number of analytical materials of the Budapest Chamber of Commerce for 1901 d. And all this went on without cuts and own comments, which increases the significance of these documents as historical sources.
The beginning of 1902 overshadowed the news of the economy. The Consulate General in Budapest was more interested in interethnic relations in Hungary, which are beginning to escalate. In 1902, the work of the Serbian national church cathedral once again failed. This actualized the problem of the position of the South Slavs in Hungary. The Viennese authorities stepped up their penetration into Bosnia and Herzegovina, which also increased the friction between the administration and part of the local Slavic population. In Hungary itself, the debate about the nature and strategy of national policy has intensified. These and other political events dominated the dispatches and messages of the Consulate General in St. Petersburg.
On the whole, in the Hungarian economy in 1902, V. Lvov noted the continuation of stagnation, the reasons for which were the presence of three negative factors. The first is excessive government oversight of the majority joint stock companies and individual enterprises with the help of a wide system of benefits and state orders, which generated among them a dependent mood, suppressed private initiative and reduced competitiveness. This view was shared by many economists and politicians inside and outside the Habsburg Empire. However, the Hungarian government was afraid to completely let go of its industry in “ free swimming”, Fearing that it will not be able to compete on equal terms with the Austrian industry, not to mention such leaders as Germany, Great Britain and the USA. By the way, in Russia itself, the situation in this regard was not much different from Hungary.
The second factor so repeated in reports of this kind is the continuing uncertainty. economic relations with Austria. And the third factor, perhaps for the first time, was the failure of Magyar entrepreneurs against the background of the successes of their Jewish colleagues. V. Lvov came to a disappointing conclusion for the Magyars: they were inferior to the Jews in all respects (entrepreneurial initiative, desire for innovation, lack of fear of free competition, etc.). The Magyar business was ineffective and clearly lost to the Jewish business. This consul's reasoning had good reason... Indeed, the Jewish community of Hungary, due to its abilities, energy, knowledge, has taken a significant place in the economy, culture, social sphere countries, having played a large role in the success of Hungary in the late XIX - early XX century.
In agriculture, the results of the year were contradictory. On the one hand, in Hungary, 1902 turned out to be fruitful, and prices for agricultural products did not fall, since in Austria the demand for Hungarian agricultural exports increased in the context of a poor harvest in the United States. But, on the other hand, Hungary did not strengthen its position in the European market, as it was flooded with cheap products from Russia and Romania. The consul assessed the results of Hungary's foreign trade activities positively, as well as the work of the state railways.
In one of the reports of the Russian Consulate General in Budapest, there are quite remarkable assessments of the prospects for the development of economic relations between Hungary and Russia. In his report dated January 27, 1902, Prince V. Lvov concluded that in Austria there is a growing interest among politicians and business representatives in the development of economic ties with Russia, but these aspirations did not find support among the Hungarians. On the one hand, the political elite in Budapest feared that the development of economic ties with Russia could lead to a cooling of relations with Berlin. On the other hand, Hungary was afraid that in the context of expanding economic contacts between the two neighboring empires, it might face stiff competition with Russian agricultural products on the Austrian market. Consequently, Prince V. Lvov saw the main threat to the development of good-neighborly relations between Austria-Hungary and Russia precisely in the position of the Hungarian leadership and business. By the way, this position was quite widespread not only in the Russian Foreign Ministry, but also in the socio-political and business circles of the country as a whole.
Russia closely followed the discussion in Hungary and abroad on the advisability of building a canal connecting the Oder with the Danube. In addition to the development of economic ties between Austria-Hungary and Germany, this channel was of great strategic importance in the event of a war. The Russian diplomat's attention was also paid to the plan for the construction of railways in Bosnia and Herzegovina, approved by the Hungarian Parliament. Thus, the consulate very carefully monitored any information about the development of transport arteries in Hungary and adjacent territories. The same information was scrupulously collected by Russian diplomats in Vienna.
In 1902, the consulate paid considerable attention to the prospects for the development of economic relations between Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition to the noted plan for the construction of railways, which, by the way, according to the consul, testified to the gaining strength economic ties Hungary with Bosnia and Herzegovina, V. Lvov stated the fact of the expansion of Hungarian penetration into the occupied provinces. In particular, this was clearly indicated by the increase in Hungarian exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina from 19.8 million kroons in 1898 to 24 million kroons in 1900. The consul in the future predicted the further development of relations between Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Thus, the Consulate General of Russia in Budapest in 1900-1902. stated in the Hungarian economy stagnation after a prolonged economic recovery in the last third of the XIX century. The reasons for this phenomenon were based on both long-term grounds: unfavorable conditions in the world agricultural market, intense competition from Austrian industry, lack of investment, excessive state intervention in the national economy, narrowness of the internal market, and short-term reasons in the face of uncertainty in economic relations with Austria, tactical miscalculations of the Hungarian government. At this time, the term of the previous economic agreement with Austria ended, and under the new agreement, the parties could not come to a compromise. With the exception of some estimates, V. Lvov as a whole gave objective information about the economic development of Hungary.
However, he often could not collect the disparate facts into a kind of integral system. Drowning in details, the consul did not see many obvious facts, including, in principle, the high rates of economic development of Hungary at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, despite some "overheating" of the economy. In 1897, the gross domestic product of Hungary was 340.41 million kroons, in 1900 - 371.84 million kroons, in 1901 - 375, 83 million kroons, in 1902 - 396.07 million kroons ... And nevertheless, this circumstance in no way begs the merits of the information materials of the Russian diplomats who worked in Budapest. Until now, they are an important historical source in the study of the main trends and contradictions in the development of the Hungarian economy in the era of dualism.
