The revised forecast for the euro exchange rate for February 2018 is quite favorable for the single European currency, which cannot be said for the US dollar. Despite some fluctuations in this two-currency pair, the euro is feeling quite confident and it is expected that it may rise to the level of 71 rubles this month.
Expert forecasts on exchange rates in Russia
With a stable ruble exchange rate, Russians feel more confident. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of this year in Russia will be calm for the domestic currency. And then it is more difficult to predict.
First, presidential elections will take place in March. Until that time Russian ruble, according to forecasts of experts, will maintain its position, and fluctuations will be insignificant.
Secondly, in April, the term of the OPEC + (oil exporting countries) agreement on production cuts ends. How do they transmit latest news while it is in effect, it constrains the prices of black gold, and at the same time the rate of the national currency. For example, at the beginning of 2016 a barrel of oil was trading at $ 32, now it is $ 65. It is not yet known whether the agreement will be extended. If production volumes increase, then the oil price will begin to fall, which means that the ruble will face another collapse.
Thirdly, anti-Russian sanctions can also affect not only the exchange rates of world currencies, but also the weakening of the Russian ruble.
What will happen to the euro from February 1: analysts' forecast
Meanwhile on this moment the market is witnessing a decrease in the price of the dual-currency basket, and at the same time - an increase in the ruble. Experts associate the fall in the rate of the European currency against the ruble with the recovery of the US dollar in the EUR / USD pair. However, already in February, according to analysts' forecast, a reversal in this pair is expected. " In February we expect from a coupleUSD/ RUBa rebound to the area of fifty-seven or fifty-eight rubles per dollar, together with a pullback of the pairEUR/ USDto the level of 1.20"- said the head of the analytical department of FTB Forex Alexei Mikheev.
Irina Komarova, who is an associate professor of the department, agrees with him. economic theory PRUE them. G.V. Plekhanov: " Expectations are high that the European currency will break the 71 ruble mark in February". The expert cites as arguments:
- positive dynamics of key economic indicators of the euro area, which creates the basis for sustainable growth of this currency;
- maximum growth of the manufacturing PMI;
- high profitability valuable papers eurozone.
Also, if the European central bank will raise interest rates, it will allow the euro to strengthen its position in the market. However, experts believe that this will not happen until the second half of the year.
Dynamics of the euro exchange rate since the beginning of 2018
As for the foreign exchange interventions carried out by the Russian Ministry of Finance, they restrain the growth of the ruble. This is expected to last until mid-February, but overall, the month should be stable for the domestic currency. Summing up, we can say that from February 1 the euro will not go up sharply.
Hello everyone! Today I have prepared a fresh forecast for April 2016 for you. In it, I decided to touch upon such technical instruments as oil, dollar, euro and ruble, in general, all the most important things that might interest my subscribers. Check out.
Oil price forecast for April 2016
Let's start with the most important thing for everyone Russian citizens, namely, with the forecast of oil prices. Experienced analysts assure that oil prices will continue to rise in April 2016. main reason price growth lies in the expectation financial market the results of the negotiations of the OPEC countries, which will be held on April 17. At the meeting, major oil-producing countries must agree to cut oil production in order to increase its value. You can learn more about this.
In connection with the rise in oil prices (for comparison: in January 1 barrel of oil cost $ 27, and in March - $ 40), investments in shale oil production in the United States fell sharply, which also led to an increase in oil prices.
As the oil price forecast for April 2016 is positive, the Russian economy is also expected to improve. For example, in Russia, GDP indicators for the first quarter of 2016 have already improved.
The predictions did not come true investment bank USA JP Morgan, which foreshadowed the decline of the Russian economy by 1.5-2%. Due to the increase in oil prices, the decline was less significant and amounted to only 0.8%.
So, the forecast for oil prices in April 2016 suggests that in April oil will continue to rise in price, until April 17 for sure. Nobody can tell you the exact numbers, but presumably it will fluctuate around the price level of $ 45.
Ruble forecast for April 2016
The sharp drop in the ruble was provoked by a large number of factors, including the sanctions that were imposed on Russian Federation... Experienced politicians and experts suggest that in 2016, friendly relations will be established between the countries, which will lead, first of all, to stability.
If the economic and geopolitical components become aggravated in the future, the ruble may become a little cheaper. Moreover, Russia still has spare reserves that the government can, if desired, use to influence the ruble exchange rate. But since these cash while they are still in reserves, it can be concluded that the government considers their use to strengthen the ruble inappropriate.
Experts' opinions on the ruble exchange rate differ, some portend its depreciation, others - a rise in price. The ruble exchange rate largely depends on the country's economy and its policies. If suddenly the conflict continues in Ukraine or hostilities intensify in Syria, this will also negatively affect the country's economy. During the forecast of the ruble exchange rate, one should not overlook various force majeure situations, which can also cripple the country's economy.
If we exclude all possible negative factors, then we can say with confidence that the price of the ruble in April 2016 will continue to increase.
Due to the fact that oil, according to forecasts, will increase in April 2016, we can safely say that the ruble will also grow stronger. So, until April 17, you can safely buy rubles on the daily time frame.
It is also worth noting that due to the rise in oil prices, the production of shale oil has become unprofitable, in connection with which the volume of investment in this business has sharply decreased. If oil prices continue to rise, this will attract new investors, which will also have a favorable effect on the value of the ruble. Based on all this, we conclude that the ruble forecast for April 2016 is favorable.
Fresh forecast of the dollar for April 2016
The direction of the price of the dollar / ruble pair largely depends on the value of the dollar, so it is worth paying attention to it. The latest forecast for April 2016 is only positive for us. This means that the price level of the dollar / ruble pair will only go down. Experienced experts assure that the dollar will cost 62 rubles in April. Such conclusions were made by Natalya Milchakova, who currently holds the position of director of the analytical department at Alpari.
In my opinion, the fall may be slightly different, April 17 cost price level currency pair dollar / ruble will fluctuate between 60-65 rubles. A sharp jump in the price of this pair may happen on April 17, on the day of the meeting of representatives of large oil companies.
It is possible that on this day the price may roll back down due to the fact that the meeting participants will not come to a common denominator. It is likely that the decisions made at the meeting will not confirm the forecasts, as a result of which the price will sharply go down. April 17 is an important day for exchange workers, for which they are already preparing today.
If you are an experienced trader and you know what you are doing, then on Monday, April 18, you can make good money. And if you are still a beginner and cannot predict the direction of price movement, then it is best to close all your orders by May 17th.
Speaking about the direction of the price of the dollar / ruble currency pair, one should not forget about the dollar. The United States is interested in making its currency expensive, so they are trying in every way to keep it high. Various emergencies in Europe lead to instability in the EU, as a result of which the euro depreciates and the dollar grows stronger.
If we assume that no emergency is expected in April, then we can confidently say that the price of the dollar / ruble pair will go down.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2016
According to Bloomberg experts, the euro will fall against the US dollar and other world currencies. This trend is related to the fact that the European Central Bank intends to further mitigate its credit policy.
In April of this year, the European Central Bank is expected to lower its interest rate, as well as continue to implement the asset repurchase strategy, which was launched in early 2015. This, in turn, will lead to a further decrease in the value of the common European currency.
Also, employees of the Bloomberg agency claim that by the end of 2016 the value of the euro against the US dollar will decrease by more than 3%. Beyond the action of the European central bank According to the agency's experts, the reason for this trend is the Fed's increase in the value of the key rate, as well as economic growth in the United States.
Whether these forecasts are justified or not directly depends on whether the European Central Bank will continue to implement the current policy or change the economic course.
Also, the exchange rate of the European currency may be affected by the changing situation on foreign exchange market... Since, in spite of the forecast, oil prices stopped falling and even began to grow, this may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an increase in the euro exchange rate.
All this knowledge you can safely use for trading in April according to the described technical tools... I hope that the forecast for April 2016 I have collected will help you in increasing your profits in the Forex market.
The dollar continues to be in a fever, depending on fluctuations in oil prices. Hopes for a reduction in oil production have led to a short-term increase in oil prices, but there is no reason to count on a stable trend at this stage.
Analysts' forecast for April 2016 indicates further volatility of the dollar and euro exchange rates.
Oil is the head of everything
The dynamics of changes in the value of the ruble directly depends on the trends in the oil market. Attempts by exporters of "black gold" to agree on options for reducing the extraction of raw materials give hope for an early recovery in oil prices. However, the current agreement to maintain the January level of oil production will not have a significant impact on the market, experts warn.
The Central Bank does not intend to maintain the ruble's position with the help of foreign exchange interventions, as stated by the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina. The main task of the authorities is to diversify the economy, which will make it possible to minimize the negative impact of low prices on “black gold”.
Another important factor the problem remains budget deficit... Formerly head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev stated that the situation with the implementation of the revenue side of the budget is entering a critical phase. Experts admit that the authorities may agree to devalue the ruble to patch up budget holes. In turn, representatives of the Central Bank deny the possibility of this scenario.
Some experts admit the strengthening of the ruble in the near future, which is associated with the adaptation of the Russian economy to the current realities.
Future scenarios
APECON analysts expect gradual weakening Russian currency... By April, the dollar rate will reach 84 rubles / dollar, which is associated with a negative forecast for the dynamics of oil prices.
These estimates almost coincide with the expectations of experts Morgan stanley, which predict the value of the dollar at 82 rubles. Despite the optimistic statements of officials, the bank's representatives assume that in the future the Russian currency will continue to depreciate, reaching 87 rubles / dollar at the end of the year.
Representatives of the Russian banking sector allow for a gradual strengthening of the ruble. Head of VTB24 Mikhail Zadornov believes that the continuation of the recession this year will not be a problem for the Russian currency. This opinion is shared by Vladimir Kravchuk from Gazprombank.
The optimistic forecast of experts assumes the recovery of the Russian currency to 70 rubles / dollar, which will become possible after the increase in oil prices.
The economic difficulties of the eurozone will affect the position of the European currency. By April, the value of the euro will come close to the positions of the dollar, this trend will continue until the end of the year.
Experts predict an increase GDP of countries the eurozone by 1.7% in 2016, which is higher than last year's figures (1.5%). However, the expected inflation rate of 1% remains well below the ECB's target. Also, European manufacturers continue to lose their positions in world markets, which forces the regulator to look for additional sources to stimulate the economy.
As a result, the ECB's quantitative easing policy will continue in the short term. At the same time, the Fed has already begun a cycle of raising interest rates, which will lead to the strengthening of the American currency. As a result, the forecast of the euro / ruble exchange rate for April 2016 will amount to 74-88 rubles / euro, which will be determined by the dynamics of the economic situation.
An additional positive factor for the Russian currency may be the partial lifting of the existing sanctions. This topic is being actively discussed in the West, and soon some restrictions may be lifted, which will allow the ruble to partially win back its lost positions.
The euro, like any other currency, has never been in constant rest, but over the past few years, it has risen significantly. Before the onset of the global crisis, the euro could be exchanged for rubles in the following corridor: 40-50 rubles.
A huge and dramatic jump was triggered on Black Friday at stock market and the euro reached the level of 76 rubles. Then, by the end of 2015, its indicator increased to 86 rubles and this became a record level that the European currency has ever reached.
Are there prerequisites for growth?
The euro is likely to continue to rise, but a fight is possible due to the likely intervention of the European Central Bank (ECB). This is what a new study on the outlook for the world's largest currency pair is talking about.
The specialists today see only limited upside potential for the euro, above 1.20 The ECB is likely to try to stem the momentum with verbal intervention. This is the conclusion made by economic consultants. Nevertheless, the position may be revised in the future, it all depends on the future dynamics.
The euro has been on the rise since French President Emmanuel Macron took office. But this is not just the elimination of political risk that promotes common currency above, the Euro has also received support from the ECB, which will soon begin phasing out its stimulus program and will eventually start raising rates. The ECB does not want a too strong euro, however, as soon as it starts to put downward pressure on inflation, there will be a reduction in the cost of imports.
Taking into account inflation, the ECB is doing everything in its power to help the currency, they will not be happy with positive results, therefore they decided to intervene in the course of events. The ECB expects a gradual monetary normalization. Their work can be interpreted as verbal interventions that should constrain the euro-dollar and assess the potential.
The dollar, meanwhile, rose strongly in late 2016 amid promises of financial stimulus from Donald Trump. It was believed that through tax incentives and spending on infrastructure it will fuel the engines of economic growth, accelerate the recovery in the US, and lead to faster normalization of Fed policy.
However, now this fantasy has disappeared and the market has sharply lowered expectations. Interest rates in the United States will be by the end of 2019 - up to 1.5%, which is a much flatter trajectory than the Fed expects - up to 2.25%. Even three bets since December last year, executed with perfect regularity, have been able to convince the market that we are witnessing the beginning of a rate hike cycle.
The Fed will not subside until inflation recovers, but as a result of its actions so far, the dollar has only significantly depreciated, and the euro has slightly strengthened its position. The Russian ruble remains an outside observer and is only getting ready to adjust to fluctuations.
Trump's failure to honor his key commitments, ratified by Congress and Senate, is a real problem. The scandal with Russia is now also having a significant impact, which could cause the overthrow of the entire administrative elite of America. As long as this situation persists, the euro will grow and it is worth paying attention to it.
US sanctions are being imposed on Russia and are threatening its ties with Europe. Tolerate the unilateral US sanctions only hurt Russian banks which are now expanding, and this could put pressure on allies, with the risk that the dollar could be threatened as the world's reserve currency. It is difficult to say what the top is trying to achieve, because it is impossible to completely abandon the dollar or the euro, through which all foreign economic transactions take place.
What affects the position of the euro in Russia
The forecasts of experts, of course, are good. But you should not always blindly trust them. As practice shows, they come true by no more than 80 percent. And then if we are talking about forecasts for the short term. It is very difficult to accurately predict the behavior of a currency. This is due to the fact that its movement in one direction or another depends on many factors, the nature of the change of which is very difficult to predict.
And the first thing to pay attention to is the behavior of another currency - the dollar: the behavior of the euro depends on the demand for the latter. So, when the demand for one currency stabilizes, a slowdown or fall in another is noticed.
Analysts' forecast is based not only on the observation of the ratio of the two currencies. The change in the position of the euro is also influenced by the economic and political situation both in Russia and in the countries of the European Union.
The reasons for the recent rapid growth of the European currency include:
- the sanctions imposed by the European Union and hindering free trade - as long as they operate, there is no need to talk about any stability of the European currency;
- rising fuel prices;
- cheaper oil and a decrease in its exports to the west - until regular and stable oil supplies resume, it will be problematic to be responsible for the accuracy of forecasts - the currency can behave as you like;
- inflation and other factors.
The Ministry of Finance believes that no sharp push for the worse in the near future should be expected. Moreover, he predicts that the euro will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. It is hard to believe, of course. Moreover, Sberbank experts predict a completely different course of events. So, monthly for the first half of 2019, according to Sberbank, the picture will look like this:
The data clearly show that the exchange rate will not be stable, and its highest value will be in April.
There are also other opinions of independent experts. For example, some foreign analysts believe that the euro will reach one hundred rubles by mid-2019. This is due to the fact that due to sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods Russian economy will not rise. True, not everyone is so pessimistic: most foreign analysts nevertheless agree that the euro will not rise above eighty rubles.
A number of experts do not exclude a short-term depreciation of the euro: this will happen if Russia can restore oil sales at a higher price.
This disagreement in the opinions of analysts and experts makes it clear that you should not trust the forecast values. It is necessary to independently monitor the economic and political situation both in the country and in the world. If you already have some savings in European currency, then nothing needs to be changed. But to buy a new batch, it is better to wait for the decline in the price of the currency.
The full forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2019 is here:
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The euro exchange rate is of interest today not only to depositors who keep their savings in foreign currency, in particular, in euros, but also people who follow the dynamics of the euro exchange rate in the context of months, conduct international trade and non-trade activities or monitor the situation of the country as a whole.
Of course, the euro exchange rate has an impact on the Russian economy. Many citizens are wondering whether it is worth keeping their savings in euros any longer, or is it time to transfer them to a more stable currency.
The general forecast given by many experts is that the euro exchange rate will fall starting from April 2016. This can be explained, first of all, by positive shifts in the country's economy. First, the gross domestic product in Russia is starting to rise, which cannot be bad. Experts note that the peak of the decline fell in the middle of 2015, which is why there is now a positive trend. The recovery in GDP contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, which, in turn, makes it possible to reduce the exchange rate of the euro and other currencies.
Secondly, the price of oil has also stopped falling and has strengthened at the level of $ 60-65 per barrel of oil. This, of course, is not as good as we would like, nevertheless, it is already some kind of stability that can be maintained by other positive recovery processes in the economy. Thus, it can also be said that the euro will fall due to these phenomena.
Since most experts point out that the euro will fall, we can talk about the inexpediency of keeping your savings in the euro. In this regard, various sources make different predictions.
For example, the Ministry economic development The Russian Federation notes that Russia is gradually recovering its economy against the background of the fact that in The European Union the deterioration of the economic situation is now noticeable. In particular, this applies to Greece and Ukraine. the cost of oil, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, will be at least $ 60 per barrel, from which the euro exchange rate in April 2016 will be in the range of 53-64 rubles per one euro.
The analytical forecasting agency APECON also informs that in April 2016 the euro will continue to grow. At the beginning of the month, this figure will be 85.45 rubles per euro. At the end of the month, the euro exchange rate will be 87.16 rubles per euro. During the month, the maximum value of the exchange rate will be 87.16 rubles per euro, and the minimum - 83.74 rubles.
But the PrognozEx bureau reports that the euro rate will fall and at the beginning of April will amount to 91.31 rubles, by the end of the month it will fall by 4.88 rubles and will amount to 86.43 rubles.
