Hello! In this article, we will talk about what will happen to the dollar and the ruble in the near future, about which forecasts regarding the future economy of our state exist, as currencies (ruble and dollar) allegedly behave and how to fix the situation. You will also learn the opinions of various experts on currency rates.
Causes of a complex position in the Russian economy
It is stupid to deny that the economic situation in the state, which has developed at present, causes citizens not just tension, and the present fear. The national currency is unstable, and this entails the consequences for each individual family in Russia. Many people keep their savings in rubles and the future of accumulations will be very worried.
If we talk about the reasons, because of which negative phenomena in the economy of our state occurs, they are far from new. Other states faced with them, and our too. World history knows not one such case. Why all these factors are generally contacted in one tangle, will be in the future to disassemble scientists-historians, and we will try to express our point of view on the situation.
So, there are the following points:
- A sharp decline in oil prices. No matter how sad, but Russia for several years tightly hooked on the so-called "oil needle." This well-known fact and secret is not;
- Economy Persecated in the raw material side. Consequence of the first point. Funds from the sale of oil did not invested in the development of new technologies, scientific potential, and so on.
- Corruption component. The level of corruption in the state has reached huge sizes. Yes, the fight against it is gaining momentum, but it is still very far from its successful completion.
- Sanctions introduced by other states. This is certainly a stick about two ends, but it is stupid to deny that his negative impact They provide.
- Worst of investment climate. Directly connected with all the above factors, as well as with the instability of the national currency.
Possible Event Development Options
In fact, there are several of them. Let us dwell on each.
- Particularly optimistic. Some of the expert community adheres to such a scenario for the development of events. It is possible only in the following cases: oil price will increase to 60 rubles per barrel and sanctions from Russia will be filmed in full. So on the rapid development of this option, it is not necessary to hope.
- Optimistic average level. Experts from Germany offer such a vision of the situation: how they believe Russian authorities will attach the maximum conditions for stabilizing the situation and national currency Strengthen its position.
- Practical hopeless. One of the leading American bureaus on economic analyst believes that the price of oil will continue to fall and lead to the full collapse of the ruble.
- Deplorable. A separate part of the experts agreed that the value of the dollar will overstep the mark of 100 rubles.
Without falling into extremes, it can be noted that most of the analysts adheres to one opinion: the ratio of the ruble and the dollar will fluctuate in the borders of 70-75.
We all know that the course of the Russian ruble is directly dependent on the price of the so-called "black gold." And the imposed sanctions also calculate our currency and even the central bank cannot cope with the situation completely.
There are also experts who believe that the ruble stabilization is generally not included in the plans of the Central Bank and the Government. In their opinion, the state prefers to emphasize the development of exports of various goods. As far as this opinion can be called faithful, I will not go into reasoning, but it takes place.
Naturally, the development of exports will bring the state a certain level of income, but in the global sense it will not solve the problem.
What will happen to the ruble in the near future in 2018
The following factors have serious influence on the behavior of our national currency:
- What policies behave itself. We will negate that most of the solutions are aimed at the benefit of our country and its strengthening;
- in securities . On the this moment are in an insufficient level, although foreign investors began to show activity in this regard, despite sanctions;
- Price for oil. If it increases, the income of our state is also;
- Attitude to the ruble of the population itself. It would seem, what role does it play at all? Pretty serious. When the population loses confidence in national currency, the number of ruble deposits is reduced, and this directly affects the ruble exchange rate.
- Increase production capacity.If this indicator is gradually increased, not only the volumes that were planned, but also a number of volumes above the plan will be performed.
Because of what the ruble is cheaper
- Due to the departure of Russian capital to foreign countries. The ruble is unstable, and therefore investors translate cash to another currency, thereby maintaining the stability and stability of this currency.
- Because of the population games on currency courses. Many Russians want to make money on the course of currencies. This desire is quite understandable, because the dollar and euro is consistently high. At the same time, exchanging the ruble into foreign currency, citizens themselves ensure the fall of its course. In addition, it clearly indicates the lack of confidence in the ruble, as mentioned earlier.
- Measures taken by the Central Bank. When the national currency began to carry out a serious fall, it was worth a ban on converting the ruble to the dollar. According to analysts, it could well prevent falling.
- Weak production development.Many large plants are idle, or work on the equipment remaining since Soviet times. So, on all power, the enterprise cannot work, the quality of the products suffers so much that the confidence in the population has been dropped to zero.
- Stagnation of the economy.This is the result of the ubiquitous use of foreign goods and products. Of course, imported goods are high-quality domestic, and not much more expensive. By acquiring them, anyone puts money into the development of the economy of another country, aggravating the situation in his. This situation can be corrected only by developing advanced technologies, industrial production.
In order to understand the situation as a whole, consider various opinions of authoritative experts. For example, Nikolay Salabutobinds the growth of the dollar course and falling the ruble with a clear decline in oil prices. It gives forecasts regarding the cost of about 200 rubles per dollar.
He also expresses the opinion that a huge impact on the cost of the ruble is provided:
- Policy of sanctions against our state;
- Already mentioned oil prices;
- The dependence of many industries on how the economic situation in the country, as well as their dependence on geopolitics as a whole;
- The US Fed Policy.
According to Analytics Igor Nikolaev, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation undertakes all the steps to improve the situation and expose their correctness of question does not make sense. But at the same time, these steps will not fully make the situation in stable, since initially it is necessary to terminate the impact on the ruble of those negative moments that we talked above.
The head of the GC "ALOR" Sergey Hestov suggests that all factors, due to which the ruble rate is reduced, can be divided into 2 groups: objective and subjective.
Among the objective, he highlights the same way as other experts sanctions and the size of the external debt of our country. The subjective includes: first of all, the opinions of other analysts (as it is simply their point of view, which expresses), as well as the outflow from the capital of capital.
How all these factors will behave in the aggregate, take and predict unreal. But the expert is confident that the cost of the ruble will decrease by another 10% of the course current.
In turn, financial analyst Vitaly Kulagin It offers such a point of view: the position of the ruble is currently only starting. In 2018, the ruble will take full adaptation to the situation and will begin growth.
What is devaluation and whether it is possible in the current economic situation in the country
Many, having heard the word "devaluation", come terrified and wait for the collapse of the entire financial system. In fact, devaluation is significantly different from such concepts as a denomination and default.
Devaluation - lowering the value of the national currency relative to other currencies.
Defalt – this is when the state due to lack of money simply cannot perform financial obligations In front of their citizens.
From forecasts of experts, it is clear that if the price of oil decreases sharply, the Russian currency will fall significantly in price. Representatives of large banks (such as Raiffeisenbank, Alfa-Bank) believe that in 2018, the weakening of the ruble will occur up to 95 rubles / per dollar.
The next moment, due to which the next round of devaluation can occur - this is a budget deficit. According to the results of 2016, its consuming part exceeds a profitable 3.5% income, which, in turn, has a serious burden on the reserve fund. And during 2018, the situation is unlikely to improve significantly.
Due to the budget deficit, reserve fund reserves can be exhausted in full.
Also, problems for the ruble occur due to different tensions in geopolitics. In particular, the conflict in Syria can cause the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which means to hit the economy and positions of the ruble.
According to pessimistic forecasts, the new stage of devaluation is inevitable. Optimistic assumes that the ruble will not resume fall, but will begin to strengthen.
Would you like in 2018 denominations
The possibility of denominations of the ruble is categorically denied not only by the government, but also mostly of the expert community. Experts consider such a step with a little efficient and negative.
Denomination - This is one of the forms of consolidation of monetary units. It facilitates cash, but is used at the time of the loss of the ruble of purchasing power.
For several years, the possibility of using this tool is discussed. In particular, since the end of 2014, when the ruble began to lose its position. The State Duma sounded proposals to use this measure to soften the crisis phenomena in the economy. But in the future, this initiative did not find support and was recognized as meaningless. According to the head of the Central Bank, it makes sense to discuss such a probability only if the ruble depreciates more than 10 times.
If the calculation of the denomination facilitates, then its procedure itself requires just tremendous labor and pays great risks. Need to replace monetary signs, Introduce new bills in turnover, and it threatens not only an increase in the level of inflation, but also the fact that prices will be rounded into the biggest.
In the current conditions, the issue of denominations in 2018 is not planned.
The experience of our neighbors
In Belarus, the denomination is held since July 2016. As a result of the national currency, Belarus will lose 4 zeros. This question has long been being called and eventually decided to implement a denomination. The problem began in the 90s, when the republic gained independence. The situation reached the absurdity: to buy a TV or refrigerator, the buyer had to carry a whole bag of money, and in the literal sense.
Our country has such experience too. The denomination was held in 1998, the Russian currency took 3 scratch. At that time, this step was justified, economists consider.
As we talked above, the opinions of experts regarding the ruble are different, and sometimes they contradict each other at all. But the fact that 2017 for the ruble was not easy, can be approved almost definitely.
What will happen to the dollar in the near future - the opinions of experts
To delve into the situation more fully, get acquainted with the opinions of various experts.
Alexey Kudrin, Earlier, who previously held the post of Minister of Finance, argues that in the coming months of Russia's economy will survive even greater decline. The reason for this, he calls the foreign policy of our state, in particular, the introduction of counter-banks.
It supports economist Vladimir Tikhomir. He believes that the cancellation of counter-bond will stabilize the situation.
It is also worth the forecast of one of the major American banks, which has a positive reputation in the economic community. So, analysts Morgan Stenley It is assumed that in 2018 the value of the dollar will be 85-87 rubles. But the deposit will begin only in 2018 and not much.
Also, a famous analyst also expresses his opinion Mikhail Khazin. He believes that the entire economic model that has developed in Russia is subject to update. This will help stabilize the ruble and correct the difficult situation in the economy. However, a number of investors fully agree with him, who believe that the ruble reduces its dependence on oil and in the future it will only be strengthened.
A diametrically different opinion is expressed by experts of the Institute of Hydara Gaidar. They say that the dollar rate will lose its position and fall closer to the second half of the year.
Dollar Perspective until 2020
To analyze how the dollar will be in the future, experts rely on those events that will definitely occur. The level of accuracy of such an analysis is about 70%. Events occurring unexpectedly (catastrophes of various nature, natural cataclysms and so on) predict and foreseelessly.
If we talk about the long run, the forecast for the dollar before 2020 has already done Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is as follows: if the cost of oil is equal to $ 40 per barrel, then this is not a bright future for our national currency. The dollar will rise in price to 75-80 rubles and then the crisis will continue for several more years, or rather, until 2019 inclusive.
ONLINE AGENCY PROGNOXEX And his analysts believe that the first half of 2018 will be characterized by a smooth decrease in the ruble exchange rate, which means an increase in the dollar. On the second half of the year, the predicted dollar rate - 62 rubles.
As we can see, even the most authoritative analysts do not agree in a single opinion on the dollar's course, even in 2018, not to mention the situation that will be in 2020. The exchange rate jumps sharply and with a large proportion of unpredictability, which negates all the forecasts. Also such jumps open doors for speculation and attempts to get on this earnings. Although all experts say that without having a certain luggage of knowledge, should not be engaged in manipulations with currencies - and it is right.
Dollar influence factors
There are several key factors affecting this currency. At the same time, the leadership of our state can not affect them.
- Number of foreign economic transactions. Currently turnover money With other countries is clearly insufficient.
- Inflation rate. According to the most optimistic forecasts, it is 5%, but if the situation worsens, the dollar will grow in price exactly at so much.
- Removing economic sanctions with Iran. This country again entered the oil production market. So, the average price for oil will increase significantly and will affect the value of the dollar.
Actual issues of the future economy
Many questions concerning the courses of the dollar and the ruble are very worried about the population.
Consider the most common and try to give answers on them:
- Can they cancel the dollar as a currency in 2018? To date, the government takes measures that are aimed at reducing the turnover of the dollar in the state. It is clear that excluding it is completely unrealistic, as the dollar is the basis of the entire global financial system. But the restrictions are imposed possible. Explaining the example: Natural gas is our national resource. To other states, we can sell it not for dollars, but for rubles. This will allow the ruble to significantly strengthen.
- What is the dollar rate in 2018? As we see from all the forecasts that are given above, the dollar rate can both increase and fall. In addition to all other factors, it will depend on the decisions taken by the Fed.
- Why do people trust the dollar? It was this currency that showed itself the most stable for a long period of time, the euro - the currency is young, and the dollar is a time-tested financial instrument.
What will happen to oil
This principle works here: if the cost of oil is growing, the dollar falls, and the ruble strengthens its position, if the oil falls the dollar in price, and the ruble is already falling. Almost all experts are unanimous: to give a forecast for the value of "black gold" in 2018 with high accuracy simply unreal.
For example, an expert from France Pierre Torzyan, which is the director of such a serious and well-known publication, as "Petrostrategies," suggests that the price of oil will increase in 2018 by an order compared to 2016, but stabilizes only in 2018.
Specialists from Pira Also believe that quotes will rise to $ 75, and this will have a positive effect on the ruble.
Also, the expert community believes that it is possible to count on a gradual weakening of sanctions, and therefore the ruble will be able to return the positions that lost.
In general, the intrigue is clearly waiting for us. It is known that members of OPEC (and Russia too) signed an agreement, according to which oil production will be frozen. Thanks to this, the price of it will move up. But then it is still more interesting: US oil products will start hard to produce shale oil and literally foul through the market, which is unprofitable for us.
This is the same Tamara Kasyanova, Managing Partner of the company "2K".She believes that the decision taken by OPEC member countries is positively accepted by the market. But how clearly and honestly will be performed by items prescribed in this agreement, it is difficult to say. How will affect the extraction of shale oil to our economy, it is difficult to say.
Russian economy in 2018
Government Russian Federation Confidently declares that in the new year the country's economy will resume their growth. But it largely depends on the trends in the oil market. Although, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, most of the consequences of the crisis our country has already experienced. Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the situation can be called stable and in 2018 it is planned to increase at the level of 0.6-1%.
At the same time, experts of the Higher School of Economics believe that energy prices will continue to fall, the dynamics of the industry of all kinds and retail Also keep negative indicators. To reduce the dependence of the economy of the Russian Federation from external factors, it is necessary to carry out global reform of the entire system, that is, to stimulate entrepreneurship, reduce the role of the state in the economy. But again, it is only an opinion, as it will be perceived, the question is already different.
Whatever, 2018 is already called the "Year of Rise". Indexing is planned wages, small, but an increase in other payments.
Also there are completely opposite points of view that 2018 will start the beginning of catastrophic events in our country.
How not to lose your funds because of jumps of currency rates
To keep your savings, it is worth listening to serious experts who recommend investing them in real estate, drag.metals. There are also opinions that a rather promising direction for investments is (properly organized and carefully thought out). This is relevant due to the fact that many industries are significantly reduced.
As one of the embodiments - open a multicurrency account in the bank. It allows its owners to transfer funds from one selected currency to another, considering how profitable the course is.
Well, to move away from serious economic topicWe bring to your attention predictions regarding the future of our country and its national currency, which were made by famous predictors and astrologers. And how to relate to them, everyone will decide on their own.
St. Matrona Moscow
The predictor believed that this year would be heavy and decisive not only for Russia, but also for all mankind. But it is not possible to interpret her words reliably. The prophecy itself sounds threatening, but it is just a prophecy.
Elena Blavatskaya
It believed that global changes in world politics and the economy, which began in 2012, would be suitable for their logical conclusion. It is from how the future of Russia will be dependent on 2018. By the way, the prominent scientist adhered to the same opinion Konstantin Tsiolkovsky.It is in his work that the thoughts reflect that 2018 for Russia will become a breakthrough in the space industry. But he also warns against excessive development of new technologies, as this can lead to serious technogenic catastrophes.
Nostradamus
As everyone knows, Michel Nostradamus has expressed its prophecies in the katsins (poems). They are difficult to decipher, but in relation to Russia it sounds as follows: there will be a lack of water, as well as several local military conflicts.
Pavel Globa
Many Russians really trust him as an astrologer. Part of his predictions came true and for 2018 he voiced quite favorable forecasts: Russia will return to the world arena, the economy will begin to come to the state of stability. The country will gradually become one of the most influential states in the world.
Vanga.
She repeatedly predicted that 2018 for our country would be heavy. There will be a struggle between people of different religions, and the economy will survive the next fall.
Conclusion
After reviewing and analyzing all the projections, it can be concluded that the national currency of Russia has certain trends both to strengthen and to weaken. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the economic situation is now not the most favorable to which not only external factors can affect, but also internal. It should be understood that it is not easy about currency courses and oil prices, but about the formation of another painting of the world. Therefore, in the near future, life in the country will become easy.
In general, the situation is pretty shaky, state revenues are still falling, but favorable prospects definitely have.
- Expert Portal "Pope" on financial issues. The topic of the new article of our journal is relevant as ever - the relations of the ruble and the dollar in the light of the current political and economic situation in Russia.
People love to do forecasts and listen to them - this is a way to prepare for changes in the future and choose the right direction in the present. It so happened that the economy of our country and the well-being of its population is dependent on the dollar - the main reserve currency on the planet.
Predicting changes in the course of American money towards the ruble - the occupation is ungrateful, but necessary. A competent analysis of the factors of influence will save you from the loss of finance and protect your money.
Run ahead, I will say that my personally, the dollar in 2018-2019 will "go" in the corridor between 64 and 76 rubles . There should be no global changes.
We read the article to the end - you are waiting for a lot of interesting things!
In this article you will find three possible options development of events relative to the price of the dollar and its future as a currencyWhat will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 Event Development Options
What to believe the ordinary citizen? How to save your savings from inflation and increase the cost of assets? What predictions can be trusted?
Perhaps each of us has such a friend who knows exactly what will be with the economy and finance of the country in the near future. And there are analysts in the media who speak the opposite. The question whose opinion is to choose, becomes key.
Right now, forecasts are offered to choose as three options for the development of events regarding the dollar. Consider them in detail.
The onset of these options has a different probability, but none of them should be excluded.
Option 1. The dollar will fall below 50 rubles
Such a point of view adheres to a few group of experts. The case is not in patriotism: Supports of such a scenario believe that the Russian financial system has a sufficient reserve. And it is enough not only to stabilize the course, but also a gradual increase in the ruble in relation to the dollar.
Raising the rate of the Central Bank is an indirect factor in favor of strengthening the dollar. Inlaid experts in the forecasts do not promise too much take-off of the ruble, but also do not believe in his fall, especially in the first half of 2019.
According to their calculations, the cost $$ will fluctuate in the range 63-66 rubles for one "green president".
Option 2. Dollar will grow to 90 rubles
Over the past year, the ruble rate fell by 20%. The script, in which the same thing will happen next year, is quite likely. Nobody is going to cancel sanctions, but on the contrary - they are tightened even more.
Relations with Ukraine do not go on amendment, and oil prices, gas and other natural sources of energy do not grow significantly. The state budget RF 70% consists of revenue for minerals. It costs for oil to decrease at least a fraction of a percentage, and it will inevitably affect the position of the ruble.
Another significant point is the outflow of capital from the Russian economy. According to statistics, the outflow is more10 billion rubles per month . Going out foreign investorsand people who have solid funds prefer to keep savings in foreign banks. GDP is also not growing, which means that the production of national currency is becoming more difficult.
Option 3. The dollar will "walk in the corridor" between 60 and 80 rubles
This is the most sober and sensible scenario. His adherents believe that nothing extraordinary with quotes will not happen. The tendency to slow down the cost of the ruble will continue, but there are no special shocks in 2019.
What a forecast to believe is that the question is. If you believe the government, there is nothing to fear ordinary citizens. In Russia, local manufacturers have gradually awakened in Russia, and the tightening of sanctions will not affect the internal economic situation. Maybe so who knows ...
But the population "believing on the word" in such a forecast fears. However, the reason to urgently buy dollars until he sees, despite the current political situation.
Below I visually showed what factors will lead to each of the three options described above.
Forecast Comparison Table:
In Russia, the currency rate depends not only on the economy, but also from politics. The hard to make financial forecasts even for the next few months. Even the hydromete center is often mistaken in weather predictions, what to expect from forexistors currency rate, even more changeable than the weather.
And yet chitatt and analyze currency forecasts needed, and for what reasons:
- you will know whether it is worthwhile in the near future to invest in dollars or it is better to store assets in national currency;
- save your capital in the event of a sharp drop in the RUR.
- earn on quotations;
- have time to exchange at the advantageous course alone money for others earlier than all the others will do.
The current ratio of the pair ruble / dollar is a kind of indicator indicating what changes and what life awaits us in the near future. But it is extremely difficult to predict currency quotes, when you do not know all the plans of the US government and the Russian Federation.
Visual example
While I was preparing this article, a key event occurred in financial Policy Russia: Central Bank has raised the key bid for the first time since 2014. The reason for this solution is to reduce the risks of inflation, prevent a sharp collapse of the ruble. Strengthening the ruble currency should stop the growth of the dollar in 2018-2019. But there are many other factors that can significantly affect the expectations of the Central Bank.
Dollar Forecast - What Russian and Foreign Economists talk about
Now let's turn to specific specialists. Immediately warn that the opinions shown below cannot be considered as a guide to action. They are informivating to show the most characteristic trends in the environment of analysts and economic forexistors.
Analysts of Alpari
Experts of the Analytical Center of the Alpari company believe that raising the rate will hinder the ruble ridge down down. In addition, it is planned to rise in oil prices. If the indicator holds at the mark above 80$ Barrel, there is a possibility of stabilizing the national currency.
Analysts believe that now the only factor negatively affecting the ruble is a geopolitical background. "Real" course (economically determined) is approximately 63 rubles .
Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin
The representative of the Government of the Russian Federation is no less optimistic and predicts at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 the cost of the dollar within 63-64 rubles . Maxim Oreshkin said that he did not see the grounds for the growth of quotations.
In his opinion, there are three factors that the ruble is playing "for":
- expected Embargo against Iran;
- reducing the volume of oil production in a number of OPEC countries;
- explosion of the Iraqi gas pipeline.
However, the volatility (fluctuations in the currency exchange rate) will be essential. For the ordinary population, this means that it is not necessary to give in to a panic and translate savings from one currency to another, especially making it repeatedly. Specs should be engaged in only those who have experience on the stock exchange.
Where to watch the dollar schedule online in real time
The best option is to watch graphs on official websites of Russian banks or major trader resources like finams or BCS.
However, portals for financial subjects, which publish a schedule of movement of real-time quotations, mass - any brokers or exchanges provide such a service to everyone.
It is also very convenient to watch the dollar schedule for different periods Online Investing.com
Dollar Schedule from Investing.com The law on the ban on the dollar in the Russian Federation - rumors or truth
Entering new sanctions against the financial system of Russia can put under the blow of dollar savings of the population. However, the Central Bank, the Government and commercial banks (In particular, VTB) intend to protect the contributions of ordinary citizens.
In the event of a ban on the American government to use the US national currency by the US banks to depositors will return their savings on other money. What - is still unknown. The head of VTB A. Kostin is confident that the Russian banking system It will be able to cope with the consequences of such sanctions. Moreover, he doubts that such measures will be adopted at all.
Full independent departure from the use of the dollar in the Russian economic and financial system requires measures to state level. This is how Professor of the Russian Higher School of Economics A. Abramov. In an interview " Russian newspaper"He stated that" dedollarization "- the idea of \u200b\u200bitself is not bad and should exclude the periodic devaluation of the ruble, which are now occurring every 7-8 years.
To avoid this, you need to change the single-sided structure of the domestic economy, which constantly depends on the price of natural resources. People will believe in the ruble if the government is able to "untie the country's economy from oil prices."
Nevertheless, now the calculations of the Russian Federation with the nearest neighbors (countries former USSR) Go mainly in rubles. Deputy Minister of Finance Alexei Moiseev believes that if such a tendency continues and will progress, then in 2 years it will be seriously thinking about the dedollarization of Russia. But in the coming months, such an idea is impracticable. This means that the law on the ban of the dollar in Russia is not more than rumors.
Frequently asked questions about the course of the dollar and its future
And now the answers to the most actual questions of our readers about the fate of the ruble and the dollar in the foreseeable future.
If you do not find a response to your question, ask it in the comments.
These are the most popular questions about the dollar from the entire Runet. Maybe your is among them? Question 1. When will the dollar fall? Vladimir, 32 years old, Moscow
Partly on this question is the answer above: when the price of oil is raised or russian economy It will cease to depend on the vibrations of the cost of raw materials. In the near future, this hardly happens.
Question 2. Is it worth believing news about the dollar and if so, what? Catherine, 42 years old, Voronezh
Condiscibly believing all news, rumors, forecasts and speculation can not be in any case. Even the assurances of the government are not worth believing 100%. However, the older people know this and so.
Question 3. What is the dynamics of the dollar more likely to be waiting for us in 2018-2019? Oleg, 29 years old, Stavropol
As I said, volatility (course fluctuations) will definitely be present in the next 6 months. But in which direction the schedule will move - a decline or growth - no one knows.
Maxim Oreshkin already mentioned by us advises the Russians to get rid of dollars and buy rubles. His forecast - reducing the value of the US currency to 63 rubles . Another question: Even if this happens, where the guarantees are that the next jump will not return the quotes to the previous level?
Question 4. Next year, the dollar will grow or fall? Victor, 35 years old, Kazan
Professional experts working in largest companies Russia and the world, have in their arsenal huge arrays of the information and the most modern software for calculating the probability of developing events based on statistics, stock exchange oscillations and other factors of influence. But even they are regularly mistaken in their forecasts.
In calm economic periods, their forecasts are more reliable, but few people need. But with the onset of unstable times economic analyzes are becoming less reliable. This is happening because no one can take into account the entire variety of life in their forecasts.
In other words, there is no accurate answer to this question. Nobody really knows what will happen to the national currency in the coming months.
Question 5. Is it worth buying dollars now to earn in the future in his growth? Igor, 37 years old, Tambov
This is a key question. People are not so interested in political intrigues like their own savings. If you constantly store accumulations in rubles, inflation will destroy profit on the deposit. Currency deposits more promising in terms of conservation and increase funds. But not always.
Therefore, experts advise to balance risks and distribute assets immediately in three main currencies. If you keep money in rubles, dollars and euros in a 40/30/30 ratio, the probability of fund loss will be minimal.
Question 6. I do not understand what is happening with the dollar, why does his course jump so much? Lyudmila, 27 years old, Simferopol
Rides not a dollar, but the ruble in relation to the dollar. By itself, the value of the dollar remains at about the same level. This does not mean that American money is not subject to inflation and other processes inherent in any currency. It just happens not as sharply as in the case of our domestic currency.
Question 8. Like many people, I recently wondered - when the dollar collapses, because the US public debt stepped over all the permissible limits for a long time, and if this happens, what will happen to the global economy? Nikolay, 54 years old, Vladivostok
Yes, the US public debt has already exceeded GDP CountriesAnd all financial problems The US government solves the easiest way - includes a printing machine. The system is not supported by anything material and nevertheless it works.
Experts say that the dollar will fulfill the role of the World Reserve Currency until the countries use this money for international settlements and keep them in domestic banks. Another dollar stability factor is the political power of the United States. While the country is considered, her money, even not reinforced with anything, will be in demand.
All the drama of the situation is that if an economic crisis occurs in the USA, it will affect all world economy, Russian, including.
Be sure to look at the recent speech by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, where he proposes to abandon the dollar, which is generally logical from his words:
conclusions
The dollar's course is interested in everything - from housewives to traders on the stock exchange. In dollars they keep their assets millions of people around the world. This is the number one reserve currency in the Russian Federation and the reliable financial instrument.
Dollars love everything, and not because you adore America. The dollar is simply used to grow consistently in price towards many other national currencies. This does not mean that US money is not subject to periodic vibrations of value. With them, too, this happens, but not so clearly and often, as with the ruble.
Need to remember:
- The ruble exchange rate depends on both the economy and from geopolitics.
- No expert can give a 100% proposed forecast, since it is not able to consider the entire variety of factors.
- Reliable to keep savings in several currencies.
- And even more reliable - to invest assets in more profitable tools (shares and bonds).
So, the answer to the question that will be with the dollar in the near future does not have a unambiguous answer. And to make money on speculation is only if you have experience in stock trading. And a simple inhabitant is better to store money in different financial Instruments In addition to currency: Real estate, precious metalsPynes (mutual investment funds).
The official dollar rate established by the Bank of Russia on September 6, 2018 rose to 18.91 kopeck compared with the indicator on Wednesday and amounted to 68.46 rubles, the euro rate for today increased by 11.62 kopecks - up to 79.13 rubles.
The cost of the bivarny basket on Thursday increased compared with the previous indicator by 15.63 kopecks and amounted to 73.26 rubles.
At the beginning of August, the dollar, according to the course of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, was at the mark of 62.3 rubles, and by the middle of the month it was published at 68.2 rubles.
24.08 The "Green" course showed a kind of record when she reached 68.5 rubles. According to experts, the ruble lowered against the background of the expected package of new anti-Russian sanctions to the main world currencies. September, of course, will mark the currency fluctuation.
the market researchers express the public from different points regarding the expectation of the value of the US currency in September. To date, the opinions of politicians shared on two camps. Some insist on the fact that the price of the dollar jumps sharply to 80 rubles, and then his growth will continue.
Other experts and analysts express the hope that in the second half of the year the dollar will hold on at a mark of 60-65 rubles per unit. We know exactly this forecast can hardly be called, in the realities the information will definitely be directly dependent on economic Development countries.
Analysts determined the term of the dollar rate
The Reuters survey held in April, announced the assessment of experts who answered that the dollar would not be on the rise for a long time, he was predetermined by a period of time only no more than 3 months, but the forecasts were not justified, the American Natsawlyt still continues to strengthen.
Then there was another data collection, it was carried out in the interval from 31.08 to 5.09. Interviewed experts agreed that the "forever green", which rose by 3% will fall lower in relation to other currencies, but this may happen next year.
What are such doubts? First, the highest economic growth of the United States, secondly, the political influence of the reserve federal system, and, finally, the beginning of the trading war of America and China.
Such a protracted dollar jump became unexpected for everyone. Governing Department of the Currency Strategy " Wells. Fargo ", Nicolas Bennenbruk noted such an unpredictable turnover, but expressed the hope that the long strengthen period would soon end.
Only after the expiration of eleven weeks, the speculative valves had to reduce the bets, which is associated with a 1.5-year-old maximum increase in net income.
The predicted results of responsible for the question will be the fate of the "bucks" in the future, showed that the deterioration is not threatened by him. The likelihood that it will increase more than 5th% at the end of the year, this does not doubt only 20% of people.
In the same way, the prospect of the euro's desires, it is predicted by 4%, british pound - by 6%, Japanese Inene - from 2%.
What will the pressure on the disruption of Euroollar down? So-called twin deficits, that is, with a record low percentage of industrial power, there are rapidly growing debts and unemployment, worsening in general economic situation countries. In addition, the foreign trade policy of Trump with increasing duties and blackmail methods does not have a positive impact.
It is difficult to predict the dollar rate to the Russian ruble even for the next half year, not to mention the long run. But, nevertheless, many international and domestic companies, guided by the analysis of a huge spectrum of statistical data, are ready to give a forecast for what will be with the dollar in 2019. Will the ruble grow in relation to world currency? Or maybe even more depreciate?
For many years, the Russian ruble over the years, for just some one and a half or two years, fell in relation to the dollar more than twice. What led to such a steep peak of the national currency? Basic reasons are two:
- International sanctions;
- Oil prices (held for a long time).
It was these two factors that were strongly hit by ruble, determining the speed and dynamics of its fall. Although the opinion of experts regarding the influence of sanctions on the national currency rate will differ. Some consider restrictions on cash flow between Russia and European countries by a secondary factor, while others are dominant.
In any case, the inflow of investment in the country is suspended, European markets are closed for our products, so the ruble in the near future can hardly be able to play the missed positions.
All international analytical companies build their forecasts regarding the dollar course, based exclusively from the price of oil. The factor of capital outflow from the country and the ban on the supply of goods to Russia from the countries of the European Union is practically not taken into account. But will the cost of black gold in the coming years? Most likely, yes, although this growth will be very insignificant.
Price scenario from experts Vygon Consulting involves an increase in the cost of oil to 80 cu. Barrel and decline in the dollar to 60.5 rubles. Similar forecasts as to how much the dollar will cost in 2019 adhere to the analysts of the Morgan Stanley Holding.
But Pira specialists give more optimistic data regarding the oil market. In their opinion, barrel oil can grow in price to 75 cu, which in turn will give impetus to a more significant decrease in the dollar.
The World Bank gives a forecast for the fall of the dollar to 58 rubles. AND the main reason The growth of the National Monetary Unit is not the price of oil, but the competent policy of the Central Bank of Russia. But will the American currency fall so much?
Gradually, the domestic monetary unit will begin to play the lost position since the beginning of the New Year due to the alleged abolition of sanctions. Also to positive dynamics on currency market You can attribute:
- prerequisites for the stabilization of the oil market,
- reorientation of the Russian economy towards China,
- inflow of investment out developing countries Asia,
- competent policy CBRF.
How much will the dollar cost
The most recent data on the ruble quotations for 2019 were obtained from the Institute for Analysis and Prediction of Ranjigsis. Provided maintenance of the price of URALS oil in the range of 55 y. e., foreign currency It will stand 59.7 rubles. And this is a few points below that figure that is available today.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation is more pessimistic, rather than leading agencies of the world and Ranjigs. The macroeconomic forecast of this department suggests that the dollar in 2019 can be bought for 64.8 rubles. for average price Barrel oil in 65 cu
Summing up, I would like to note that no expert forecast suggests that the ruble in 2019 will fall more than he fell in 2017. If the mark of 100 rubles per dollar was not achieved at a price per barrel of oil in 30 cu, then at 60-70 cu It should not be expected and feared.
In order to receive the latest news regarding the projected currency rate for the next year, it is important to constantly monitor information from reputable economic sites. After all, the situation that is relatively stable today, can change at any time.
It is noteworthy that the so-called "Bigmak index", the data of which published the magazine "The Economist" at the beginning of this year, says that the ruble is underestimated to the dollar almost three times. And today the dollar should not be higher than 23.12 rubles.
On a note
The largest traders of the currency argue that the dollar is waiting for a steep collapse. It is possible that many investors will resort to the choice of the Euro and Yen currency. Definitely, political contradictions will significantly weaken the influence of the dollar worldwide.
Russians constantly break her head over what the dollar is waiting in 2018? Indeed, the scenario for the development of our country's economy depends on this international monetary value. The thoughts of a larger number of experts are still aimed at the positive permission of the economic situation in the Russian Federation. In the circles of the authorities, an anti-crisis exit has already been outlined. Yes, and by historical standards, the crisis cannot continue infinitely, regress always replaces progress. That is the law of life. Simple ordinary people simply adapt, great minds and people directly or indirectly affect what is happening.
In Russia today are often depressed or aggressive people. And it is not surprising, because everything, from products to services, is constantly becoming more expensive, and the national currency is still not stable.
Forecasts at the dollar rate to the ruble are the main indicators of the government in the near future. Therefore, it is important to monitor currency fluctuations. The leading experts of the country and the world expressed hypotheses, graphic drawings in the development of the American monetary unit are built.
2010 was very important for dollar bills for dollar bills, then it began to rise in price financial market. Per last year The currency rise occurred by about 40 percent. Wines here in the Syrian and Ukrainian situations. Global crisis situation The global economy only pushed the US currency to move upwards.
After the refinery fell, the Russian currency fell, and the fall continued until 2016. Central Bank The Russian Federation is constantly being taken about the settlement of the course, but it is quite difficult to stop the growth of the dollar.
Unpleasant consequences for the economy in Russia have brought sanction prescriptions. And today, our authorities and fellow citizens hope for the promises of the new American president about the abolition of sanctions for our country. 
Today, the situation in the politics and economics of the world community is not beneficial dollar bill. American financiers of the last century had a brilliant plan, allowing to carry out a huge cash emission. The issuance of loans and life at the expense of virtual money as the virus spread throughout the world, and the beginning was put by US banks. Initially, only citizens of the country could use virtual finances, but they parted with real money, on which the percentage was injected. Creating a currency fund made it possible to learn the world community. This resourcefulness saved the dollar, and he retained his position in the world finance.
The forecast ruble to the dollar today is very important. The powers are opposed to each other with the help of currency struggle. Initially, it was interesting to exchange brokers, traders and dealers, but in our days of information boom and high awareness and literacy of the population of the whole world, currency forecasts occupy the minds of most of the citizens.
Dollars are closely related to demand and suggestion. These factors directly affect its assessment. The laws of the market are such that if there are many suggestions, demand is reduced, and the price value of the bills falls. Will this happens with Baxom in the coming year, no one can answer one-way. The forecasts of analysts at the dollar rate in 2018 are divided into views, both positive and negative positions. Talk about the fact that if the dollar falls, it can lead to a new turn of the world economic crisisBut on a large scale comparable to the once experienced "Great Depression."
But in the last century, the US currency did not have such value and impact on the budgets of developing states, as now. With the fall of the American currency of the country of the third world also expects a decline. And the United States will be on the verge of bankruptcy.
International trade is conducted in dollars, so the question is how much the dollar will cost in 2018, will not lose its relevance for a long time. And the same factor keeps the US currency from falling. While the ruble will be less than the dollar in the finance market, the bucks will have their own weight. Even for the Russian state, the dollar collapse is not profitable, because in this case the entire financial and trading system of the Russian Federation will suffer.
Is it possible to fall the dollar 2018, it will show time, in the theory there can be everything, in fact everything is more complicated. The monetary unit of America created a good Euro competition. But from this currency expected more. It was not only taken into account that the monetary unit is not binding to a specific country, it means that there is no one to follow it, unlike the Americans who are responsible for the position of the dollar.
If the level of world trade goes to a decline, the number will decrease trade operations, then the American currency will cost less. Gold and oil playing a decisive role in the international market. There were two of these products in price, the stock exchange dollar value decreases. This can be explained by the large consumption of America data of goods.
People are not interested in what the dollar will be. The sanction policy has raised a dollar course in a pair with the ruble on the stock exchange. However, there was a violation of the balance in a pair of the dollar from the euro, and the "American" loses. 
Patriotic scientists have a report on "operational monitoring of the situation with the Russian economy." In it, you can learn information about the estimated average dollar exchange rate for the years 2018 in 57 rubles. per unit currency. This suggests the idea of \u200b\u200bpositive dynamics in economic state issues.
What the dollar expects in 2018 in Russia, is stipulated by experts who suggested with a high probability of several positive movements in the economy:
- According to the basic scenario, the elite oil brand URALS will stop at a value of $ 40 per unit barrel. Judging by the calculations, this year the assessment of the American will stop at the average level of 67 ruble bills, in 2018 the cost value will decrease to 62 rubles.
- According to the optimistic scenario, next year, the price tag of an elite oil brand will increase to 60 bucks for one barrel. This will entail the strengthening of the position of the ruble. The 2017 will be approximately 60 rubles per piece of "American". In the 18th, the value of the dollar will be reduced to 57 rubles. 20 kopecks per dollar bill.
- What will be with the dollar's course next year on a pessimistic forecast, also depends on the price tag on URALS oil, which in this event of the development of events should have an average cost for this year - 33 or 34 bucks per barrel. In this case, the dollar rate values \u200b\u200bhave been reached at 82 or 84 rubles per dollar bill.
According to experts, if the ruble will manage to win the position of the dollar, he can help the world community to stabilize the economic situation so as not to bring it to the collapse. But it is not so easy, it takes time. But while the dollar course affects the ruble ability to buy.
