Subject: Is the crisis an integral part economic process Or can it be prevented?
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Anti-crisis management in Russia is developing about 20 years. But, despite such a considerable period, no specialist in this area will not be able to answer the question: "What is the crisis of the socio-economic system, is it inevitable or can it be prevented?". Following the classical economic theory on the macro level - the level of the global economy and the economies of individual states, the crisis is understood as the inevitable phase of the economic cycle, but this phase is mandatory condition For the new "lifting".
The theory of anti-crisis management at the micro level has nothing to do with phase theory. And even on the contrary, the crisis is not a phase, but a state that is caused by numerous external and internal factors. Thus, based on the cyclic (phase) theory, we conclude that crises are inevitable, and on the basis of the theory of anti-crisis management - it can be concluded that crises can be prevented.
It is not clear whether there are objective patterns of crises at the level of enterprises and firms. Taking attempts to consider the internal cycles and phases of enterprise development (by analogy with the socio-economic system at the macro level), we see that organizations complete their existence without any dependence on these phases. In practice, organizations and firms take place several periods: formation, growth and heyday, it confirms the presence of phases, periods and development waves. Consider an example: after a heyday period, as a rule, the decline comes due to the obsolescence of products or technology. In time, organized and carried out upgrades (reforms) allow the firm to gain a new life and start cycle again. How then then to explain that organizations have difficulty and often bankrupt, being in other phases? A large number of firms do not live not only before the recession period, but also before the lifting period. Plus, some firms successfully fulfill their functions in adverse conditions of world economic depressions, and many are losses and declare their bankruptcy into relatively prosperous times. During the financial crisis, a large number of prosperous organizations began to experience serious problems not because of their own miscalculations, but due to significant changes in the external environment.
The economic cycle is to replace each other asking and decline in economic activity levels. Each economic cycle is individual and differs in intensity and duration. It is impossible to predict the duration and temporal sequence of economic cycles with mathematical accuracy. By irregularity economic cycles More reminiscent of weather changes.
Relying on the idea of \u200b\u200bcrises, I conclude that:
- It is impossible to avoid crisis, because The stages of cyclic development are regular and naturally repeated. Also, crises can be a consequence of a major error or natural disaster;
- When the potential of the main elements of the system is exhausted, the crises begin in this case elements new system, future qualitatively new cycle;
Consequently, the crisis is the necessary element of progress.
The crisis as "natural selection" reveals weak points and eliminates unreasonable ambitions; Makes the strongest market participants to find new ways of development and conquer the right to place under the sun.
Since crises are individual, any crisis requires specific exit measures from it.
In order to qualitatively manage the crisis, it is necessary to investigate not only its causes, but also its consequences. The crisis can carry both a positive and extremely negative result.
In order to ensure the less painful and efficient development of the socio-economic system, anti-crisis management is valid. You can safely diagnose that overcoming crises is a managed process.
To successfully manage crises, you need to be able to be able to immediately detect the first symptoms of its occurrence that can be differentiated primarily by typological accessories.
Exit with minimal losses from crisis situations directly depends on the competent analysis of the current situation in the economic system, therefore modern market Labor needs highly qualified specialists in the field of anti-crisis management.
The whole process of anti-crisis management is not built to completely eliminate the crisis, but to direct it into the right direction for the further, dynamic development of the economy
Situating the foregoing, the crisis is the most priority element of self-regulation market economy. The crisis always entails the completion of one and the beginning of a new period of development. The economic crisis allows you to identify not only the limit of opportunities, but also ways to develop the economy, stimulating to progress. In crisis time, motivating motivations are born to a significant reduction in production costs, increasing profits, increases the struggle between competitors.
Quite often we are faced in everyday life with the word "crisis", and this concept is multifaceless. Increasingly, in the last decade, the word "crisis" is associated with economic instability, decay of production and prices up, and salaries down. Do crises contribute to progress in the economy, and is it possible to avoid them or prevent? This is further to deal with.
By definition given in the Economic Dictionary B.A. Rezberg and L.Sh. Lozovsky, economic crisis It manifests itself in a sharp deterioration in the state of the country's economy, when a decline occurs in the manufacturing sphere, natural economic ties are violated, enterprises suffer damages and bankrupt, unemployment is growing, and the overall level of well-being decreases. Thus, crisis phenomena show that in the economic sphere there was serious imbalances, real indicators and the situation "on paper" less and less coincide, which is why there is a violation of payment flow and payment balance, the loss of assets liquidity leads to an increase in unpaid obligations, which in turn , inhibits the continuous movement of capital as the engine of production and economic processes.
Karl Marx determined that crises are characteristic of precisely the capitalist economy, in particular, due to the fact that the gross domestic product is performed in excess of platform demand.
Austrian school is characteristic of the economic crisis as a "overproduction crisis", when due to the consistent distortion of information on income and expenses of future investment projects There is a revaluation of the alleged profit, which leads to the depreciation of the money and the creation of excessive money supply due to the growth of demand for credit money, the rates on which are reduced. The company previses the trends in the expenditure of funds instead of their accumulation. As a result, incorrect investments do not bring alleged income, the money is not returned in full in the economy, the effect of the boomeranga occurs: credit resources are not replenished, there is a deficit of real money against the background of an overvalued money supply, the economy suffers from the oversupply of the gross domestic product due to the fact that investments are sent In obviously unprofitable projects. To return at least part of the money invested in economic development, investors sell "bad investments" by significantly understated costs to return the money distracted into business projects. Against the background of the lack of money to pay for debts, there is a reduction and optimization of production, first of all, a wave of dismissal occurs.
Hence the fear of most people of the crisis, as the labor market is overwhelmed by the supply of labor, competition arises for the employer, as a result of which the salary decreases, because of which the standard of living falls. By and large, the population is not ready for crisis for the reason that for many people the only source of income is the futility, most often, unqualified.
If you look at economic phenomenaInherent in modern economies, we can see certain patterns of crises. So, many scientists at different times came to the conclusion that the economy has cyclic quality.
Herald of Chelyabinsky state University. 2010. № 28 (209). Economy. Vol. 30. P. 23-26.
V. E. Rossik
The origins of the economic crisis
The views on the economic crisis, the causes of its occurrence and the impact on the economy. It is concluded about the systemic crisis in Russia.
Keywords: system crisis, cyclicity, the main cause of the crisis.
It is well known that the economic life of society is not a smooth movement forward. It is subject to various negative impacts (droughts, floods, war, epidemic, etc.). Economic cyclicity - This is an objective form of development of a market economy. It is a wave-like movement of economic conjuncture (business activity) with regular alternation of its lifting and recession. One of the phases of the cycle is a crisis.
According to representatives classical theory Macroeconomic equilibrium (A. Smith, D. Ricardo, A. Marshal, etc.), the market economy is protected from a decline in self-regulation mechanisms. Flexibility of such money forms as percentage wage and prices ensures equilibrium in capital markets, labor and money; The market mechanism itself is capable of correcting the imbalances arising across the national economy, and state intervention is not required.
Both Maltus and S. Sismondi, unlike the aforementioned classics, believed that crises are inevitable, and they associated them with the insufficiency of aggregate demand for produced goods. At the same time, Malthus believed that the source of insufficient demand is the reassembly of capital, and Sissomdi - the absence of workers and capitalists: the absence of workers is the result of a slower increase in revenues compared with the growth of commodity masses, and capitalists - a consequence of reducing consumption, aimed at accumulating capital. Both both underestimated the investment component of aggregate demand.
The American economist J. K. Galbreit in his book "The Great Collapse of 1929" explained the crisis with psychological reasons. He wrote that the cause of the crisis lies in good expectations. The beginning is the total price increase in both the stocks and real estate, objects
art, etc. There is a hype in the market, prices are growing, and everything is full of optimism. Galbreit gives a comparison with an inflated balloon, from which in the event of a puncture, the air does not get gradually, but immediately. This very accurately reflects the situation in the market when the crisis enters the active phase. The reasons for this phenomenon are as follows:
1. Incorrect income distribution. This means that the economy depends on the high level of investment and consumption of luxury items, which is a consequence of obtaining a small part of the population most of the income.
2. Bad corporate structure. The constant presence of risk of ruin due to the effect of the effect of the lever in the opposite direction.
3. Bad banking structure. The fall of one bank on the principle of domino collapses others.
4. Depressing state of foreign trade
5. Weak level of economic knowledge.
According to K. Marx, the main cause of the crisis is in the process of circulation of capital. Stop or changing this process entail a gap of capital circulation. It is this aspect of capitalist production, that is, a violation of equilibrium in the capital market, is a specific reason for the economic crisis during capitalism. The same aspect explains the frequency of crises, their repeatability at certain intervals and similar, although not the same, manifestations, i.e., the characteristic course of the economic cycle.
"... immediately before the collapse," Marx writes, "the company always has an almost exaggerated healthy look. The best proof is given to this, for example, "Reports on bank ACTS" 1857 and 1858, where all director of banks, merchants, in one word, all invited as experts, with Lord Overston headed,
hello each other with the blooming and healthy development of cases, - just a month before the crisis broke out in August 1857. And Tuk in his "History of Prices" is strikingly amenable to this illusion again and again in the historical description of each individual crisis. Enterprises are always extremely healthy, and things are doing the most brilliant way, while suddenly does not develop crash. "
First of all, the crisis is found in the sphere of circulation and loan, although the decline in production is the main and central expression of the crisis. The decline in prices and other signs of the starting crisis signal the approaching fall in production.
The transition to depression is characterized by suspension of the production drop and its fluctuations at a low level.
J. M. Keynes admitted that the development of capitalism faces such contradictions that could not be spontaneously overcome. The main one of them is J. M. Keynes considered the emergence of mass unemployment and deficiency of "efficient demand" on the goods, as a result of which the offer of goods does not coincide automatically with demand for them. The main defect of the previous economic theory, he saw in the underestimation of obstacles for the uncruiscuous development of the capitalist economy, which are created by the "deficiency of effective demand." Under the effective demand, Keynes imply investment, consumption and government spending.
Monetarists explain the crisis with the cause of the monetary property. The most famous founders who developed the completed theory of crisis on such a soil are considered to be K. Zhugram and M. Friedmen. Monetarists prove that the market system without state intervention provides macroeconomic stability and economic growth. The monetary concept of the crisis is based on a quantitative theory of money, in accordance with which money massIn appeal, has a direct impact on the price level.
The tool that determines the stability of production, prices and employment, they believe, are money. This means that money is performed by the function of demand management, and through it - and economic processes, in
there is a significant impact on the volume of production. Since monetarists believe that the rate of money turnover is relatively stable and predictable, then the total balance (including employment) is associated exclusively with the proposal of money - their number. An unreasonable increase in the money supply leads to inflation, and the decrease is to deflation. Both the other negatively affects the economic development of society. Therefore, the basis of the stabilization of the prices and maintenance of moderate economic growth rates, they are considered to be state control over the proposal of money in the country.
A significant part of the above-mentioned theories of monocautional, that is, they bring the sources of cyclicity to one or another main mechanism that is a source of oscillations extending to all spheres of relations in society: economic, social, political.
N. D. Kondratyev is the author of the very first systematic concept of long-term oscillations in the economy, which revealed their endogenous character. Unlike the above authors, he, working out its own theory economic Development Societies did not be limited to some one rationale for cyclicity, but made its starting point for production as a complex of all scientific and technical, economic, as well as political, social and other conditions. Conducting an expulsive study of the economic development of England, France and the United States from the end of the XVIII century, N. D. Kondratyev found three large cycles in the world farm:
I - from 1789 to 1814 (Rising wave) and from 1814 to 1849 (a downgrade wave);
II - from 1849 to 1873 (lifting) and from 1873 to 1896 (decline);
Iii - from 1896 to 1920 (a new rising wave).
The average duration of Condratyeva cycles was 50-60 years old, and the author put the scakical nature of scientific and technological progress, periodic revolutions in the technique and production technology. The emergence of "long waves" is due to the fact that the "bundles" of large innovations (for example, the invention of the internal combustion engine, car, aircraft, etc.) give a pulse of eco-
nomic activity for several decades, while their influence does not come.
In the late 30s. XX century Austrian economist J. Schumpeter put forward general theory Cycles of different duration, which in its combination provided a certain amplitude of macroeconomic oscillations. This theory also relied on scientific economic factors of economic progress. In his book "Cycles of business activity. Theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process "(1939) J. Schumpeter proposed the concept of the so-called three-cycle scheme economic speakersWith the framework of which the half-century Condratyev cycles were combined, 10-year-old Zhougurra cycles and two-year kitchin.
Describing their relationship, Schumpeter did the conclusion that a longer cycle must include less long periods of development, as a result of which the release of equilibrium for the next order wave creates the release of each longer wave. At the same time, the main driving force of cyclicity is innovative activity entrepreneurs, mass investment in fixed capital.
In another book, "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy" (1942), Schumpeter noted: "The implementation of long-term investments, when the conditions change rapidly, represents almost as risky exercise as shooting for a goal that is not only clearly visible, but also moves with a jerk)
