In the 1990s. in the works of many western researchers special attention Developed the development of the basic provisions of the crisis resolution strategy. The main task of these developments is to overcome the "target dilemma", i.e. contradictions between the protection of their own interests and attempts to avoid measures capable of cause an unwanted escalation ( Georg.. 1991. R. 22). In this regard, defensive and offensive strategies for resolving crises are allocated.
A. George describes five offensive strategies to resolve the crisis situation: 1) blackmail; 2) limited probing; 3) discreet pressure; four) fait Accompli. (accomplished fact) and 5) slow exhaustion. Some of these lisha strategies threaten actions that could cause damage (for example, blackmail), while others are associated with different measures of impact on the enemy, different in the degree of force that applied (or the use of which threaten).
Each of these offensive strategies seeks to make an opponent more supple and reduce the risk of escalation. Thus
the challenge side may begin to convince the enemy that its goals in the crisis are limited; that the promotion undertakes does not imply the presence of a deeper, all-permissive hostility to the enemy, which will later be expressed in additional challenges; What in the future, after the current crisis is resolved, positive relations are established.
The defending parties have a number of strategies designed to prevent opponent's attempts to change the status quo in their favor. When the defending parties it becomes important that its answer can cause an unwanted escalation, it also turns out to be the need for political regulation of the crisis. The defending side need to take some steps against damage to the interests that ended with, at the same time, it avoids what could cause the escalation of war (or higher levels of hostilities).
Distinguish seven types of defensive strategies: 1) Forced diplomacy; 2) a limited escalation of involvement for setting the rules of the game, more favorable for the defending side, plus attempts to keep opponent from escalation in order of response; 3) Retribution on the principle of "OCO OCO" without escalation plus escalation from the opponent; 4) acceptance of "potential checks" as part of the restrictive rules of the game chosen by the opponent, which are originally disadvantageous for the defendant party; 5) drawing; 6) Demonstration of conviction and determination in order to prevent the party challenge the challenge; 7) actions and suggestions to help win the time and giving the opportunity to explore the conditions for resolving the crisis by negotiation, the conditions that could satisfy some (if not all) the requirements of the challenge of the parties (ibid. R. 377-394).
World Strategy
The policy of avoiding the crisis situation also implies several types of strategies. The realistic strategy is related to the need to establish the balance of forces, in the conditions of which mutual carrying out the strongest actors of aggressive aspirations of each other contributes to the preservation of peace and stability in international relations. Neanalists paying attention to the importance perception international actors of each other, great importance attached goals recognition from other actors. French
researcher J.-F. Ferrier calls it one of main goals Participants in international relations (see Read more: Ferrier. 1996. p.121-130). Indeed, without recognizing other international actors cannot achieve more secondary purposes. This applies to, for example, socio-political communities or political movements, seeking independent state status. For them, recognition from other states and generally accepted MPOs (first of all, by the UN) is associated with the possibility of legitimate activities as an autonomous, independent actor. This is exactly the first of all all former colonial countries, and the former Soviet republics, and the OOP, and Maskhadov's Stranniki, seeking to receive at least partial recognition of Chechnya as an independent player on the international field. States with recognized status and obliged to comply with the rules of the game (for example, UN solutions, bilateral and multilateral agreements and agreements, etc.), for which, for economic or political reasons, it is advantageous to show their recognition by the political movements, separatist forces or quasi-states, Forced (together with "applicants" on recognition), look for various tricks for this. For example, Taiwan has been unrecognizable as an independent state with many countries, trade, economic, cultural and partly political relations that are supported through its "private agencies" in these countries. At the same time, in the desire to preserve its territorial integrity of the state, the states are registered with the territories to which they distribute their sovereignty, or separatist movements did not receive recognition from other countries and MPOs.
The significance of the recognition problem says that the stability of international relations may depend on its decision. For example, hasty recognition of Croatia and Slovenia by Germany, who was ahead of the EU in this, became a source of disagreements and contradictions in international relations ongoing and today. According to J.-F. Ferrier, this recognition has become one of the causes of a long drama: the so-called community without identity, i.e. The territory inhabited by Serbs, Croats and Muslims, accumulates the problems of other Yugoslav provinces that do not have a sufficient degree of civilizational unity ( Ferrier. 1996. R. 129-131). "The international community," says Zh.F. Ferre, - showing the rare speed of his reaction, possibly showed excessive diligence in its humanitarianism "(ibid. R. 130).
The question of recognition is central for one of the varieties of a big strategy, strategies in the world. "Strategy of Decaming Recognition"In contrast to the strategy of the balance of power, aims to restrain not so much the power of another state (or other states), how much of its fear (see this: Osgood.. 1962). Achievement of this goal / involves the use of a wide variety of means: mutual official recognition of each other in writing (examples of which were the German-German Treaty of 1972, the final act of the CSCE 1975, Oslo 1993, Dublin Treaty of 1997) ; Taking into account the "symbolic interests" of each other, especially those related to national identity (holy places, national symbols, historical traditions, C.p.); persistent efforts to establish links with the "opponent" and gradual concessions, as confidence and disarmament measures ( Osgood.. 1962; Lindemann.. 2000. P. 529). "Neoidalist" A. Venndt, opposing the approach of the incoming strategy in question (which is associated with the risk of creating a security dilemma), assures that the latter can significantly change the "intersuberate structure" of international relations. As one example, he calls the policies of the openness to the outside world, which in the mid-80s. XX century conducted M. Gorbachev and which allowed to radically change the nature of international relations ( WENDT. 1994).
Strategy of pacifying recognition It was described by C. Osgood. Its advantages see that it is not based on one-sided concessions, but in reciprocity. It combines "whip and gingerbread" and thus makes it possible to return to closed policies in case gradual concessions are incorrectly interpreted. In other words, it is not predisposed to "gifts" without tangible reciprocity. Other advantage of this strategy, its supporters see that her failure can relatively inexpensively be able to adopted it: being "gradual", it suggests in the initial stages of measures that are predominantly symbolic ( Lindemann.. 2000. R. 529).
Second variety world Strategy It comes from the theory of democratic world. Its supporters who are convinced that democratic regimes are more peaceful than totalitarian or authoritarian, they offer to "promote" democracy to all new countries (for more details, for example: for example: Risse-Kappen Th. 1996. P. 401-404). This strategy is more detailed (for the US, it is an integral element of the expansion strategy) will be reviewed in the chapter on international security.
Strategy and diplomacy
Until the middle of the XX century. The strategy in the theoretical and practical sense was considered the exceptional affiliation of military art and wars (see: Cuckoo. 1980. P. 126). Now this opinion is erroneous. Permanent traditional interests of states - security and prosperity - could only be carried out with a favorable relationship. Therefore, the traditional means of achieving the goals was not only a war, but also a "diplomatic-strategic game" aimed at establishing such a relation. The role of the strategy in this case was to withstand the pressure of stronger actors to withstand the pressure, as well as compensate for their own geopolitical or demographic flaws. Thus, in applied to States, strategy and diplomacy can be considered in a narrow sense. In this case, the strategy will be a combination of funds intended for the preparation and implementation of military victory, and diplomacy - a complex of direct interaction between governments, which are used primarily in peacetime (for the period of war, diplomatic relations between the warring countries are usually broken) . In the general sense (as it can be judged on the basis of the above), opposition of strategy and diplomacy as the main means of interstate interactions is relative: a large strategy includes not only military, but also diplomatic funds.
Distinguish between several functions diplomacy. The main ones are communication and information. A composite element of the information function is a propaganda function that has an independent value. Propaganda affects both the state and on the third parties, as well as public opinion in order to increasing it in their favor. Recovery and other functions of diplomacy: a) settlement conflict; b) permission problems; c) expansion or relief of interstate relations; d) negotiations and search for an agreement on specific issues; e) general software management solutions in the field of foreign policy.
Among form Diplomacy allocate the following: public, or open; secret, or a secret; mixed (Confidential negotiations between diplomats, accompanied by or finalized by public declarations, information on agreements reached, etc.). Especially it should be said about the secret diplomacy, which is traditionally inevitable and therefore the necessary means of intergovernmental interactions. Politicians,
adhere to idealistic positions (for example, V. Wilson, M. Gorbachev), and their supporters, speaking about "Amorality" secret agreements, miss two circumstances from the species; First, we are talking only about form, which in itself does not carry mandatory immorality, and secondly, the transition process only to open agreements, as a rule, has always reduced the benefit of diplomacy, since purely put forward in this case propagandist Functions (often they are flourishing in speeches in GA and UN Security Council).
Also highlight parliamentary Diplomacy, which is regular meetings of the International Authority, for example, UN, which consists of permanent representatives of Member States, as well as informal meetings and discussion of special envoys of the heads of state. In turn, direct diplomacy - These are summit, as well as communication of the first persons through electronic communication channels. One-sided diplomacy - These are direct contacts of the heads of states or their representatives. If their communication begins to be carried out through the largest international organizations, such as the UN or UNESCO, then it is already multilateral diplomacy. Finally, one of the most common forms of diplomacy in recent years - shuttle diplomacy - A visit to the first eggs of states or their special representatives of its allies, as well as the discussion of the third party with the participants of the conflict directly in the zone of its existence.
Maintenance trends In the development of diplomacy such: larger states are increasingly striving to conduct cases not so much through the embassies, but through special envoys; The proportion of mixed, parliamentary, straight and shuttle (and, as a rule, with the participation of "first persons") diplomacy with the participation of "first persons"); Increased role and status negotiatorstransformed into an independent means of interaction of international actors.
However, more and more widespread development receives non-traditional diplomacy. "When they think about diplomacy," writes J. Ross, "Metternich or Kisshinger imagine, who make large bets in the game, whose price is human life." Indeed, as J. Ross notes, in the logic of the Westphalian system, the states are controlled by the funds of violence, so the role of diplomats is only that, using the belief or threat, promote the national interests of its countries. The dominant situation in regional hierarchies, in particular in Europe, provided ample opportunities for both diplomatic pressure and forceful actions in case of failure of the first. However, the end of the Cold War, American hegemony in matters
safety, globalization radically change the role of diplomacy. Today, it is expressed in terms of costs-profits, and her ^ Fate is peaked in Washington, for it is in the end that makes the decision to destroy someone in the financial sense without the risk of shocks for the global market as a whole (see: Ross. 2000).
"Commercialization" of diplomacy is the shift of the center of gravity from military security issues and policies of unions to international activities, the main sense of which the conquest of markets and attracting investments is becoming the role of new international actors. Heads of Central Banks, Finance and Trade Ministers, who were previously hidden in the shadow of foreign ministers, go to the external life of international life. Non-state participants, such as media, transnational firms, investment companies, Operators in foreign exchange markets, managers of private banks, "brain centers", in which political decisions are produced, play at least the same role as governments. At the same time, within the framework of neoliberal ideology, this "commercialization" is often accompanied by approvals that the content of these processes is the dissemination of the principles of the preservation of peace, democracy, human rights and universal achievements of civilization. The provision on the role of force as a means of achieving international actors of their goals and defending their interests was one of the most discussed in international political science. The clarification of the provision on the role of force involves consideration of the content of the concept of "power" and his interpretations by representatives of various theoretical directions.
Mechanisms and methods of regulation in the context of the crisis author unknown
4.3. The mechanisms for regulating the global financial market in the context of globalization
Inalienable features modern economy There are processes of internationalization and globalization of world economy and including the financial market. Cancellation of restrictions on transboundary movement of capital in the second half of the XX century. First, only between developed, and subsequently between developing countries, led to a significant increase in the volume and expansion of the geography of international financial transactions. Free relocation of capital made it possible to attract significant amounts of investment in national economies experiencing a deficit of financial resources at the same time providing investors in excess financial resources to investment.
Liberalization of capital movement also contributed to the transfer of the most advanced financial technologies from developed in developing countries and improving the efficiency of financial markets on a global scale. At the same time, cross-border flows of speculative capital often provided a destabilizing effect, leading to debt crises and balance of payments crises (for example, in the countries of Southeast Asia in 1997, in Russia in 1998, in Argentina in 2001) or to the formation of bubbles in the markets of individual assets (for example, the collapse of the "new economy" in the United States in 2001 and mortgage crisis In the USA in 2007). In this regard, among economists and politicians, both nationally and internationally, in lately There are actively discussions on the actions that national regulators should take to prevent such negative effects of globalization, in particular, the possibility of a new introduction of restrictions on the movement of capital.
The issue of creating an effective regulatory system to protect the financial market from the risks of volatile short-term capital flows is relevant and in Russian conditions. Significant pressure on the ruble and oblivion of the Russian stock market in the fall of 2008 demonstrate the continued vulnerability russian economy To a sudden change in the directions of financial flows. At the same time, the task of building in Moscow of the International Financial Center by 2020, formulated in the Development Strategy of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation until 2020, requires significantly higher market sustainability.
Considering the issue of the effectiveness of the centralization and decentralization of the regulation of the economy and the financial market in the historical perspective, it should be noted that the views on his decision were changed in different periods quite seriously. Moreover, the phenomenon of the globalization of markets, observed by economists, starting with the last third of the XX century, is by no means new. Reflecting on his time, the President of the International Congress of Historical Studies in 1913 said: "The world becomes one in a completely new sense of the word ... with a reduction in distances, thanks to the new forces granted to our disposal of science. Ways to develop political, economic and scientific thoughts in each of the areas are intertwined. Events anywhere globe Today it is significant for any other point. World history She strives for transforming into a single history. "
The time to which this statement belongs is indeed characterized by the dynamic development of markets and the growth of the welfare of residents of most developed countries. However, the First World War and the Great Depression caused the sharp rise in the level of unemployment and the fall in production. In response to the requirements of protection against the unfavorable economic situation, politics were forced to abandon the gold standard that served at the beginning of the XX century. The main guarantee of free trade and free overflow of capital, and close national borders for foreign manufacturers and investors. The need for joint control over the movement of capital was confirmed in 1944 in the negotiations in Bretton Woods, where the post-war financial architecture of the world was determined.
Only in the late 1950s. In London, the market became organizationally, whose main advantage was freedom from state intervention and control. Trying to protect the cost of pound sterling, the British government has introduced restrictions for British banks to finance international trade outside the pound zone, and as a result of a new source of loans issued by British banks in dollars, dollar deposits of American depositors have become. So it appeared uncontrolled national regulators of the Eurodollar market. Another stimulus for development he received during the Caribbean crisis, when Soviet banks, worrying that their US accounts could be frozen, transferred their currency reserves to London. Finally, the most effective assistance to the Eurodollara market involuntarily was involuntarily assumed to prevent dollars from the country from the country after the beginning of the War in Vietnam introduced a tax on the acquisition of US citizens of foreign valuable papersAs a result, foreign borrowers who wanted to attract loans in dollars, formed the Eurobonds market.
With an increase in the volume of international trade, the volume of capital not having national affiliation has increased. Euroranok was a legal platform where and from where Kapital could flow without interference from national legislative systems. Even before the formal breakdown of the Bretton Woods Agreement, despite the official existence of control over the movement of capital, he could provide large companies financing of non-national origin.
The collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 and the scientific and technical revolution began at approximately the same at the same time significantly accelerated the international capital movement. Immeasurably increased diversity financial instruments And the institutional structure of the market has become complicated. The dominant paradigm has been changed - systems based on decentralization and self-organization began to be considered more effective, measures to reduce the influence of the state to the economy, the methods of self-regulation were reached on the fore. In the framework of the general processes of liberalization of the economy, first in developed, and then developing countriesah took place the deregulation of financial markets: control over interest rates was abolished, the barriers to the movement of capital between countries were abolished, restrictions on the combination of various species were abolished professional activity. In the period from 1970 to 1998 The proportion of countries imposing restrictions on international capital operations has decreased from 80 to 66%.
The free movement of capital provided a number of positive effects on the economy of both developed and developing countries: Capital was sent to the most productive investment projectsThe distribution of investment risks and the dissemination of new technologies, improving the effectiveness of national financial systems, exports and imports of capital has contributed to aligning oscillations national income (and respectively, consumption and investment). Integration into the system of world capital markets was very attractive even for countries in fairly early stages. economic Development.
Financial markets contributed to the efficiency of the labor market and human capital: Access to them qualified employees helps to increase their geographic mobility (due to mortgage), increases the efficiency of job search, and most importantly, the door to the world of entrepreneurship opens. Increasing the income of qualified employees leads, in turn, to raising incentives to accumulate human capital. Raising the degree of mobility of international capital also limited such sources state financing How high state debt, taxes and inflation - since a major budget deficit testifies to a high level of taxation or inflation, capital leaves from countries with low financial discipline.
Nevertheless, the advantages of integration of markets is opposed to significant risks. It turned out that the opening of national financial markets for world capital could often contribute to the transfer of currency crises and borement crises on third countries. According to the study of the late 1990s, 18 of the 26 bank crises of the last two decades occurred within 5 years after the liberalization of the financial sector. Disproportional growth in financial markets sometimes leads to improper placement of resources inside real economy. In addition, the liberalization process has a negative impact on countries with a weak institutional environment - a high level of corruption, ineffective state apparatus and inadequate execution of contracts. In this regard, it is often assumed that countries with a weak institutional environment should define the liberalization of the financial market until they strengthen their institutions.
The degree in which the national economy can take advantage of the free movement of capital and limit its risks is determined primarily internal economic policies. Key elements of successful integration policy on the macroeconomic level should be structural reforms, allowing to avoid revalued currencies and excessive trade deficits. In the microeconomic sphere, such a system of incentives should be formed, which would avoid the formation of excessive foreign exchange debt. In many developing countries, the banking sector and banking supervision must be reformed. In addition, with respect to the markets, a clear and transparent information policy should be carried out.
All this can serve as an explanation of why the transition of countries with a planned economy to a market model or copying economic models leading Western countries in rapidly developing countries in the 1990s. They led to a series of local financial crises in Southeast Asia, Mexico, Argentina and Russia, whose influence, due to the effect of "infection" (CONTANGION), was significantly in developed Western countries.
The possible causal relationship between the liberalization of capital movement and the emergence of financial crises caused a broad economic discussion about the need for the reform of the global financial architecture in the late 1990s. Then such discussions were conducted at the level G-20 and G-33, but for the most part turned out to be unproductive. This was also facilitated by the fact that from discussing the problems of reforming the financial sector for a long period refused the IMF and The World Bank (WB). The situation has changed only with the beginning of the acute phase of the global financial crisis in 2008. Creating a forum financial stability And the discussion of the most pressing problems of development of the financial sector has become the subject of intergovernmental and supramitic discussion, which, of course, reflects the requirements of time and corresponds to the level of development of the global financial system. Among the most pressing issues discussed at the present time, the following are allocated:
- reform of banking and insurance supervision (ensuring capital adequacy under Basel II and Solvency II);
- Reform international standards financial statements In order to increase information transparency;
- rethinking the role of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and the creation of new control or advisory bodies;
- Creating a system for regulating the market of derivative financial instruments.
One of the most far-reaching and fairly popular approaches to the reform of the global financial architecture is to refuse to liberalize world capital markets of recent decades and the new introduction of quantitative or tax restrictions on its movement, at least in developing countries. By itself, the idea of \u200b\u200bintroducing a uniform international tax on SPOT operations in the foreign exchange market to reduce the incentives to shortly move large amounts of capital and destabilize the markets was expressed in 1978 by James Tobin.
The amount of tax, according to the author's original intent, was to be about 1% of the amount of the transaction, but subsequently the rate was reduced to 0.1-0.25%. Taxation of currency operations, according to Tobin, could bring two results: first, stabilize fluctuations exchange ratesarising from the short-term speculation in the conditions of the mode of floating exchange rates. Secondly, tax revenues could be sent to the rescue poorest countries "Thus, the tax has become also a tool for the redistribution of global wealth. Nevertheless, reflecting on his brainchild, Tobin did not think that a small tax would allow to resolve large problems of the global economy. In 1978 he wrote: "I do not expect too much from my modest sentence. I suppose it will allow national economies and governments to restore some of the short-term autonomy, which they enjoyed before the introduction of currency convertibility. The offer will not be able and should not help allow governments to conduct internal politics regardless of external circumstances. Consequently, it does not release the largest government from the imperative need to more effectively coordinate politicians. "
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1 stages of the development of the financial crisis
The financial crisis, which covered the countries of Southeast Asia, and then Russia, was the most serious and destructive among all financial cataclysms that were shocked by the world economy over the past few decades, experts of the American magazine "Business Week". Signs of negative consequences of the crisis have already begun to appear in all countries. The value of the shares of most American companies decreased by 25% or more. Economic depression in Asian states deepens. The development of the Economy of Japan has been continuing the fourth quarter in a row in a row in the absence of radical measures from the government of the country. Latin America's states are on the verge of a new economic downturn.
The consequences of the financial crisis are a threat to the economic development of industrialized countries not only in the short term, but also in the long run. American and Western European companies have developed their strategies for a remote future, taking into account demand in the markets of developing states. However, due to the crisis in these countries, a tendency to reduce demand, which will continue in the future. The situation on the stock markets will remain unfavorable. The cost of shares of large companies will decline due to the deterioration of the prospects for the development of world trade.
Growing productivity in the United States Against the background of a decline in customer demand abroad can lead to overproduction in the country and slowing the rate of profit of American corporations. Many experts have already revised their forecasts regarding the profits of the largest US companies in the third quarter of this year. So, if in July 1998 Economists of the FIRST Call research team predicted an increase in the third quarter of profits of 500 largest American corporations by 10%, then, in accordance with the forecast prepared in September, this figure was reduced to 3.7%. According to analysts "Standard & Poor's", the profit of these corporations in 1998 will decrease by 3.2%, and in 1999 will increase again (about 5%).
2 State regulation of the crisis
financial crisis bankruptcy demand
The epicenter of the global financial crisis remains Asia countries. Recently, the crisis in this region entered a new phase when the states involved in it began to gradually retreat from Western doctrine that only deep structural reforms and compliance with the rules of free trade can help them get out of the difficult situation. The challenges of high interest rates, a record increase in the number of bankruptcies and growing social tensions. Only Indonesia and Thailand still continue to conduct reforms. Other Asian countries began to look for their ways out of crisis.
Japan, which is the largest country involved in the financial crisis in Asia, according to the economists of Nomura Research Institute, cannot adopt the option of exit from the crisis proposed by the United States through the closure of a number of banks.
Experts of the Institute believe that this will cause a chain reaction and lead to a wide wave of corporate bankruptcies, from which the Japanese economy will not be able to recover for many years.
The Government of Japan chose another way to solve financial problems. In accordance with it, banks with minor assets will be united with successfully operating, it is supposed to gradually eliminate hopeless loans, taxpayer money will be used to restore the financial system. However, according to American experts, this plan is too soft and will only contribute to the preservation of a weak financial structure in the country, and not to strengthen it and will not convince foreign investors In the fact that the Japanese economy joined the period of stable growth.
The Government of China in the spring of 1997 developed a plan aimed at preserving the rapid pace of the national economy. The plan envisaged the restoration of the collapsed public sector through the inflow of investments into it, the total volume of $ 750 billion should be $ 750 billion before the end of the current century, these measures could contribute to the continuation of economic growth at the level of 8% per year.
But a sharp decline in the main indices on the stock markets of the United States and Western Europe, the deterioration of the situation in Japan and the financial crisis in Russia prevented the implementation of this plan and pushed the Chinese government to adopt more radical measures to protect the national economy. It was announced an additional issue of government bonds in the amount of $ 12 billion under projects in the field of telecommunications, electric power industry, housing construction, transport and irrigation, as well as increasing the total banking loan quota from $ 108 billion in 1997 to 120 billion in 1998. Government spending on infrastructure projects in the current year, is expected to reach $ 398 billion.
The Chinese government decided to slow down the conduct of a number of reforms, as they are currently negatively affect the economy of the country, the situation in which is exacerbated by the continuing financial instability in the Asian region. Thus, the privatization of state enterprises passing by a rapid pace has already led to a significant increase in unemployment in China. Most likely will be postponed and scheduled for 2000. Achieving the total convertibility of the national currency - yuan. According to the experts "Business Week", the attempts of the Chinese government to protect the national economy from the negative consequences of the financial crisis by slowing the reforms in the country are unlikely to bring expected positive results. The delay in conducting reforms in China may worsen the position of state-owned enterprises and lead to the further weakening of the financial system in the country. Taiwan, almost not affected by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, is currently on the verge of an economic downturn. According to the forecast, Taiwanese exports in 1998 will decrease by 8%. Unemployment, still retained at a low level, began to grow. Large companies such as "presidententerprises", "Chinaairlines", "Formosaplastics", have already announced a significant reduction in their profits in the first half of this year. Consumer confidence declined sharply.
The Government of Taiwan stated that the country could no longer avoid influence negative consequences Asian financial crisis, and therefore the task of the leadership is to reduce negative impact This factor on the national economy. To this end, it is supposed to resort to intervention in the stock market, limit the trade in the currency, as well as short-term transactions.
If the efforts of the Taiwanese government were aimed primarily to reduce the chronic budget deficit of the country, which forced to limit government spending, then currently problems with the budget are pushed into the background. The focus of the leadership of Taiwan is to support the stable development of the country's economy, so it is decided to allocate significant funds for the implementation of infrastructure projects and increase the expenditure part of the budget.
In the event of a deterioration in the situation in the stock market, the government intends to force state pension funds to acquire bonds. It is intended to take measures to protect the national currency - Taiwanese dollar, which, in particular, in limiting short-term transactions and the introduction of a ban on the activities of hedge funds.
In the economy of Taiwan, the experts "Business Week" are celebrated, the factors that can keep the widespread dissemination of the consequences of the Asian financial crisis in the country are noted. So, Taiwanese corporations have small debts; 60% of loans manufactured by national banks enter the private sector.
In order to support the local market, the Hong Kong Administration (recently returned to China) ceased to buy stocks, which contributed to some improvement in the economic situation in this territory.
However, the main problem remained unresolved: the Hong Kong economy is in too much dependence on the real estate market. The administration can choose one of two ways out of this situation. The first is to bring the real estate market from under the influence of the state and thereby contribute to its gradual collapse, which will cause huge damage to selling real estate and will affect hundreds of thousands of homeowners.
The second way is to continue the state intervention in this market to protect banks related to it and building organizations, which is likely to only derete the collapse of the real estate market.
The total cost of ownership in Hong Kong has recently decreased by $ 250 billion. The price of shares fell by $ 300 billion
According to the forecast, the first indicator may decrease in the near future by another 50%, and the second is 20%. This puts in the complex position of Hong Kong banks, 44% of the borrowed funds of which are placed in real estate. High interest rates that have reached in August of the current year 12.33% from short-term loans against 7.36% in a similar month of 1997, put pressure on both banks and borrowers. In the near future, the cost of loans will still increase due to the fact that, according to the American company Standard & Poor's on August 31, 1998, Hong Kong's credit rating has lowered.
An obstacle to the further development of the Hong Kong economy and its exit from the financial crisis, according to American experts, is its support for the group of cartels. Banks negotiate among themselves about establishing basic interest rates. Artificially maintaining a national currency rate against the US dollar held back the growth of financial expenses, which stimulated the economic boom. Hong Kong companies concluded profitable transactions with the government who contributed to the maintenance of high level prices. But when the pace of economic development of the country began to slow down, and interest rates grow, the economy based on the group of cartels turned out to be non-visual.
In the 1990s. In the works of many Western researchers, special attention was paid to the development of the basic provisions of the crisis settlement strategy. The main task of these developments is to overcome the "target dilemma", i.e. Contradictions between the protection of their own interests and attempts to avoid measures that can cause an unwanted escalation (Georg. 1991. R. 22). In this regard, defensive and offensive strategies for resolving crises are allocated.
A. George describes. Happy offensive strategies to resolve the crisis situation: 1) blackmail; 2) limited probing; 3) discreet pressure; A) Fait Accompli (accomplished fact) and 5) slow exhaustion. Some of these strategies only threaten actions that could cause damage (for example, blackmail), while others are associated with various measures of impact on the enemy, differ in the degree of force that applied (or the use of which threaten).
Each of these offensive strategies seeks to make an opponent more supple and reduce the risk of escalation. The challenge party may begin to convince the enemy that its goals in the crisis are limited; that the promotion undertakes does not imply the presence of a deeper, all-permissive hostility to the enemy, which will later be expressed in additional challenges; What in the future, after the current crisis is resolved, positive relations are established.
The defending parties have a number of strategies designed to prevent opponent's attempts to change the status quo in their favor. When the defending parties it becomes important that its answer can cause an unwanted escalation, it also turns out to be the need for political regulation of the crisis. The defending side need to take some steps against damage to the interests that endured, but at the same time she avoids what could cause the escalation of war (or higher levels of hostilities).
Distinguish seven types of defensive strategies: 1) Forced diplomacy; 2) a limited escalation of involvement for establishing the rules of the game, more favorable for the defendant side, plus attempts to keep opponent from escalation in order of response; 3) Retribution on the principle of "OCO OKO" without escalation plus the interstation of escalation from the opponent; 4) acceptance of "potential checks" as part of the restrictive rules of the game chosen by the opponent, which are originally disadvantageous for the defendant party; 5) drawing; 6) Demonstration of conviction and determination in order to prevent the party challenge the challenge; 7) Actions and suggestions to help win the time and giving the opportunity to explore the conditions for resolving the crisis by negotiation, the conditions that could satisfy some (if not all) requirements-challenging parties (ibid. R. 377-394).
More on the topic of the settlement strategy of crisis:
- Chapter 2 Conflict and Crisis in terms of their settlement
- Ways to resolve political conflicts and crises
- 10.2. The crisis of foreign debt and the path of its settlement
- The problem of resolving the crisis around Iran's nuclear program
- Crisis in the system of public administration (socio-political crises)
- Three tasks of creating a strategy: formulating strategic vision, establishing goals, development strategies
- Structure and features of the National Security Strategy of Russia (give an analysis of one or two strategy provisions).
Anti-crisis state regulation real sectors Economy: International Experience
"Anti-Crisis Government Regulation Of Real Economic Sector: International Experience"
Golysheva Maria Olegovna
graduate student
GOU VPO Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
annotation: The real sector of the economy is among the main objects of anti-crisis state regulation. The article identifies the main elements and stages of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy; Comparison of the international experience of state regulation of the real sector in the global conditions economic crisis 2008-2009. and revealed the weaknesses of the Russian practice of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy during this period.
Summary:Real Sector of Economy Is One of the Major Objects of Anti-Crisis Government Regulation. In this Article The Main Elements and Stages of Anti-Crisis Government Regulation Of Real Sector of Economy Are Determined; The International Experience of Real Economic Sector Government Regulation Under 2008-2009 IS Compared And The Week Points of Rus Sian Anti-Crisis Government Regulation Of Real Sector of Economy Are Defined.
Keywords:real Sector of Economics, Economic Crisis, International Economics, Anti-Crisis State Regulation, Anti-Crisis Program, Payment Balance
Key Words:real Sector Of Economy, Economic Crisis, International Economy, Anti-Crisis Government Regulation, Anti-Crisis Program, Balance Of Payment
The real sector of the economy is one of the central objects of state regulation. The real sector is industries of the economy producing material and real benefits, as well as intangible benefits of strategic or industrial purposes, including agriculture and fishing, mining and manufacturing, construction, production and distribution of electricity, water, gas, transport and communication. The real sector refers to the macroeconomic unit of state regulation. Depending on the phase economic cycle It is possible to allocate anti-crisis, stabilization and stimulating state regulation of the real sector of the economy. Anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector represents a system of forms, methods, tools of government aimed at analyzing and predicting crisis processes in the real sector of the economy, reduced negative consequences of the crisis for economic Subjects The real sector and the use of accumulated data for the further development of the sector economy. From the point of view of the system approach, the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector is a system that includes the following key elements: the priorities of the regulation, goals and objectives of anti-crisis regulation, objects and subjects of state regulation, the direction of anti-crisis support for the real sector, methods and tools of state regulation, risk assessment and risk assessment and Control of the results of the inactorization regulation of the real sector. The content and nature of the basic elements of the state system of anti-crisis regulation of the real sector determine its effectiveness. Consider these elements:
- Priorities. Present strategic landmarks of state regulation, through the prism of which the impact on the real sector of the economy and with which all the actions of the authorities should relate to the regulation of the real sector.
- Goals and objectives. Based on the priorities, determine the goals that plans to achieve as a result of the regulation of the RSE and the tasks as methods for achieving these goals.
- State regulation objects. The objects of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector can be economic agents, whole economic complexes or economic processes to which the tools of anti-crisis state regulation are affected. Such objects can be classified into three groups for the following criteria - the scale of business, the economy industry, economic entities.
- Subjects are the executive bodies of state authorities, the central bank, the system-forming state banks, as well as institutions and funds development, commercial banks and credit organizations
- Directions are the strategic areas of anti-crisis state regulation, outgoing from declared priorities and intended goals. The integrated directions for supporting and developing the real sector are the following:
- Creation of financial incentives of enterprises
- Support and development of priority enterprises and / or industries
- Stimulating internal demand, incl. consumer and state
- Development of small and medium-sized businesses
- Improving the competitive environment
- Stimulating the labor market
- Development of human capital
- Development of science and improving innovative capital
Depending on the degree impact on the real sector of the economy These directions can be divided into direct and indirect.
- The methods of anti-crisis state regulation are concrete techniques for the embodiment of the intended goals and directions of anti-crisis regulation. For example, a decrease in the load on a business can be carried out by reducing the tax, tariff, administrative burden, etc.
- The tools for the implementation of anti-crisis regulation are practical ways of impact on economic processes and economic agents of the RSE. To carry out ancontride regulation at the disposal of the state there is a whole range of various tools for regulating the economy related to various types public politicians, namely, the budget, tax, monetary, investment, industrial, customs tariff, macroeconomic, coursework, administrative. These tools can be classified on direct and indirect by criteria. Impact on economic agents real sector.
- Evaluation of government regulation risks. Such risks can be divided into endogenous, emanating from the shortcomings of the internal development of the economic system, and exogenous - from external factors.
- Control of the execution of activities within the framework of anti-crisis state regulation is one of the ways to eliminate endogenous risks and increase the effectiveness of the measures being implemented.
Based on the characteristics of key elements, three main phases of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector can be distinguished: at the first stage, the definition of priorities, setting goals, determination of tasks and directions of anti-crisis regulation; At the second stage, the definition of methods, tools, objects, subjects and identifying the risks of state anti-crisis regulation of the RSE; At the third stage, minimizing the risks of implementation of the intended events and control of the results (see Synun 1).
Figure 1 - Stages of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy
The nature of the anti-crisis policy determines the set and the specifics of the elements of the anti-crisis regulation of the real sector, depending on the characteristics of the economy and the conditions of the pre-crisis development of a specific state. Features and differences in state regulation of the real sector in the context of the Global Economic Crisis Consider on the example of the US countries, China, Japan, Russia and the European Union region.
The following factors can be distinguished, which influenced the specifics of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector in various countries: the reasons for the economic crisis in the real sector of the economy , the size of the real sector of the economy , development of the institution of state power , the degree of exposure to the crisis on the real sector of the economy, the rate of economic growth of pre-crisis development , the availability of resources in the economy to implement anti-crisis policies.
The reasons for the transition of the crisis into the real sector of the economy for each country were their own. If for the United States and Europe, the main reason for the crisis transition to the real sector was the crisis in the banking sector and the liquidity compression into economics, then for China and Japan, the main blow to the compression of world demand. In Russia, it was added to these factors to reduce energy prices, suspended a large influx of funds into the economy, as well as foreign outflow.
To compare and assess the effectiveness of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy of selected countries in the context of the crisis 2008-2009. We use the following criteria:
- evaluation of pre-crisis economical development
- evaluation of the restoration of macroeconomic indicators of the real sector
- cost of the anti-crisis program
- content of the anti-crisis program
The pre-crisis conditions for the development of the real sector in the countries under consideration depended on the country occupied in the international economy. This led to priorities for the development of the real sector, the strengths and weaknesses of economic development and the main reason that determined the start of the crisis in the real sector of the country.
The United States and the European Union are world capital markets and importers of finished products. Saldo on the current operations of the United States and the EU at the end of 2008. It was negative and amounted to -700 billion dollars. and -200mld.dol. respectively. Extension of the negative balance of trade in the United States intensified since the 2000s as a result carried out economic Policy Based on all sorts of stimulating demand. The capital account of the United States before the crisis was positive (750 billion dollars) at the expense of portfolio investments. The overheating of the financial system was maintained by a large capital influx of developing countries (as evidenced by the positive capital account of the US balance of payments), the lowest mines of the US Federal Reserve and the rapid growth of low-tech derivatives.
In the EU, the balance of payments from 2003-2008. Balancing near zero is a small positive balance in account of current defiations (40 billion dollars. in 2007) was compensated for a small negative balance of financial account (-35 billion dollars. in 2007). In 2008 Capital outflows from the region decreased sharply, and the influx increased when European investors began to fulfill the fulfillment of obligations, which led to a positive capital account balance of about 210 billion dollars.
In Japan, opposite trends gave among the broken countries. The current operation account increased positive importance, reaching about 180 billion dollars. In 2008, and the account of capital operations has developed a negative balance of about -200 billion dollars. at the same time. Consequently, Japan has become an exporter of production and capital in the world market.
China in the crisis has joined a positive trade balance of 440 billion dollars. China's intly account is also on the results of 2008. was a surplus. Positive balance was due to the success of foreign direct investment. According to IMF in 2000-2005. The inflow of foreign direct investment in China was about 20% of all direct investments in developing countries. Such a position was the result of the state economic policy of China, focused on the stimulation of exports. Income from exports consisting of more than 50 thousand items is at least 80% of China's foreign exchange earnings. The Chinese economy development model is based on expanding the exports of finished products and capital investments by the state and external investors.
Russia in the pre-crisis period increased a positive balance on current operations (more than 3 times from 2000), provided by an increase in prices on world commodity markets, reducing the negative balance of the balance of services and investment income. The amount of pure export decreased from 13% to 1% of GDP since 2000. Due to the advanced increase in imports over exports, reducing capital outflow, improving the balance of services and the growth of investment income. This caused the growth of domestic demand by increasing the income and consumption of the housewash and the growth of capital investments. The account of financial transactions at the end of 2008. Was positive. The influx of investment in Russia for the period 2000-2007. Compiled a portion of 94.7 billion dollars. Consequently, Russia in the world market is the exporter of raw materials and capital importer - primarily corporate foreign loans.
The trends considered indicate that the economies of Russia and China as developing countries at the time of the start of the financial crisis were more sustainable than the economies of developed countries - primarily the United States and the EU. The main advantages of the provisions of China and Russia in the preincline period were in the high rates of economic growth, great growth potential for domestic consumption, the presence of large foreign currency reserves, the absence of a large number of "bad" financial assets undermining the financial system.
Thus, in the Dorizisian period, most of the world income provided by the rise in prices for raw materials and cheap financial resources was redistributed in the countries - exporters of raw materials or finished products, and then posted on world capital markets, primarily in the United States and the EU.
The position of strange in the world economic space has determined the strengths and weaknesses of the economy development, the reasons for the transition of the crisis into the real sector and the priorities of the anticrisine polyctic of the real sector support. The results of the comparison are shown in Table 3.4.
Table 1 - Characteristics of the USA, EU, Japan, China, Russia and the priorities of the anti-crisis state. Regulation of the real sector of the economy
Thus, if in the US and EU crisis in the real sector switched to the crisis in the financial sector through the mechanism of compression of lending and the fall in domestic demand, then for the Chinese economy and Japan the main reason There was a decline in world demand. In Russia, the fall in income from the export of hydrocarbon and outflow foreign capital They led to a drop in liquidity in the economy and crisis in the banking sector, which led to a narrowing of lending to enterprises of the real sector. Economic situation Countries and reasons for the crisis formed the basis of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy.
Coincidence of anti-crisis regulation priorities aimed at eliminating the fundamental cause of the crisis due to " last sides»Countries in the international division of labor, with actual implemented priorities for regulating the real sector is one performance indicators selected anti-crisis state regulation of the RSE.
The following criterion for estimating the effectiveness of the anctacherisis regulation of the RSE is the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. To assess the restoration of the entire economy and the real sector, we considered the dynamics of GDP indicators of the accumulated index of production, the accumulation of fixed capital, exports, import, ultimate consumption, household expenditures, the unemployment rate characterizing the situation in the real sector and the restoration of consumer demand in the country. Analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators allows you to draw the following conclusions. The highest efficiency had the anti-crisis regulation of the real sector of the United States, based on the ratio of the depth of the economic indicators and the post-crisis growth rate of economic recovery. Recession in the United States began earlier than in other countries, as the United States encourages the initial place of the beginning of the crisis. Reduced GDP in 2008. amounted to -3.32%, production of production -34.02% , Aumening investment in fixed assets 17.84% is one of the largest values \u200b\u200bfor the countries under consideration. However, already in 2009, when in the world economy is immersed in the recession in the US economy, positive shifts began. In the real sector, there was an increase in the production at the level of 3.18% per year, and the decrease in GDP was only -0.54%, which indicates the gradual output of the economy from the recession. Although until complete recovery, it was also necessary to restore the volume of internal swelling, import and capital investment, which in 2009. still characterized by negative values. In 2010 Positive dynamics on all indicators was restored.
In second place in the ratio of depth and restoration of economic indicators is Russia. The main execution of the crisis in Russia fell for 2009. The fall in GDP was 3.0%, the decrease in the production index - 9.3%, reducing investment of fixed assets -43% (the largest indicator for all countries under consideration), and the decrease in the net exports -24% while simultaneously reducing exports and imports by 16% and 13%, respectively. However, already in 2010. All considered macroeconomic indicators returned to a positive trend with almost pre-crisis growth rates. In 2009 GDP growth amounted to 4.4%, production growth is 8.2%, and an increase in investment in fixed assets was 32%. Of course, a great contribution to the restoration of the Russian economy has made an increase in energy prices, which provided an additional influx of funds to the economy and expanded opportunities for the implementation of the anti-crisis program. However, it is obvious that resources from the export of hydrocarbons do not immediately reach the real sector, and most of them are deposited in the financial sector. Consequently, without the operational intervention of the authorities to regulate economic processes in the real sector, the recession could be delayed for a longer period.
The mansion in the under consideration is China. First, because as such a recession in China was not, only a small slower growth rate. So the growth of the production index in 2008. amounted to 9.93%, and an increase in the fixed capital is 24.7%. In 2009 The growth of production amounted to 8.73%, and an increase in fixed capital is 18.9%. Growth GDP In 2009 It was observed at 9.57% even in conditions of decline in exposure and import at 18% and 13.7%, respectively. Secondly, the assessment of the restoration of the Chinese economy makes it difficult to lack statistical data - official data is very late in time, and those that have doubts, in particular those already described in chapter 2, unemployment rates at the level of 3% do not inspire even confidence even the Esperts of the IMF.
Based on the analysis of macroitystics, the Japanese economy has suffered most of all from the crisis, especially the real sector. The stimulating policy did not bring the desired results. On the slow pace of economic growth of the Japanese trap, the recession of the global crisis was preserved. As a result, a decrease in production index in 2009. amounted to 91%, and the fall of GDP is 4.82% (the largest recession from all countries under consideration). At the same time, despite the measures taken, the recession in the real sector continued in 2010. - Reducing the accumulated production index was 52%, and the fall of GDP -2.95%. Revenge in the real settor continued in 2011. The decrease in the production index was 70% regarding 2010. Investments in fixed assets only in 2011. showed a weak positive dynamics at the level of 0.27%, shrinking throughout 2008-2010.
The degree of influence of the crisis on the Yeropeian Union is comparable to Japan. Reduced GDP in 2009. amounted to -4.3%, a decrease in the accumulated index of production -66.3% relative to Ogon, 2008, reducing investment in fixed assets -20%. The real sector support policy has suspended the rate of falling production, but did not lead to the growth and restoration of pre-crisis indicators. Reducing the accumulated index of production in 2010. Regarding the level of 2009. amounted to -34.5%, and in 2011. -15.44% relative to brook 2010. However, indicators such as GDP, investments in fixed capital, final consumption, export and import demonstrate a positive trend from 2010, which indicates the potential for production growth in the real sector. The relative slow restoration of the real-sector economy in the EU is due to the current debt crisis and the presence of less developed countries in the EU. The solution to these problems distracts great resources from the implementation of strategic and tactical tasks. It should be borne in mind that these are aggregated indicators of the YB of individual EU countries, such as Austria, Germany, France, Gendling, and others. The economy is close to the recovery of the pre-crisis level.
Consequently, in terms of the pace of recovery of the real sector and the economy, anti-crisis support for the real sector of Russia is at the level of the United States and China.
Based on the criterion cost of Anti-Crisis Program Supportthe real economy of the economy is at the level of developed countries.
Table 2. - Comparison of the cost of anti-crisis support of the RSE
Note: * GDP indicator is calculated as the average value for 2008-2009. - Time of acceptance and implementation of ancontrisis policy
The absolute value of the cost of anti-crisis support for the RUSSIA's real sector is less than other countries - about 188 billion dollars. However, the ratio of the cost of the anti-crisis support program for the relay sector to GDP is about 8% at the EU level (9%). For comparison in the US, this indicator is about 5%, in Japan 6%. The leader in this indicator is China, which is typical for developing countries (see diagram).
Figure 2 diagram. The relationship of the antitrize support of the real sector of the economy and GDP
However, not quantitative, but the qualitative side of the measures taken, is not a quantitative, but the qualitative side of the measures taken in comparison with other countries. According to this criterion, Russia is inferior to many abandon countries.
To compare the quality of the anti-crisis program for supporting the real sector on the countries under consideration, we use the criteria: the priorities of the anctic crisis state regulation of the RSE, the directions of the measures taken, used by state regulation tools, the recipients of the anctachaisis support, the strictest program.
The following key disadvantages can be distinguished with the direction of anti-crisis support for the real sector. In the Russian anctarianism program there is a clear latitude of development and financing of the following key areas in comparison with the international experience of analyzed countries:
- infrastructure projects
- construction of new industrial facilities
- energy
- investment in science and increasing innovation potential
- investments in human capital
In relation to the development of infrastructure projects, Russia ranks recently in the list of countries under consideration. In China and Japan, the funds allocated for the implementation of infrastructure projects amounted to 24.6% and 21.4%, respectively, in the United States, 13%, in the EU 7% of the total value of the Celebration Program on the Real Sector Subrega, then in Russia 1.6% . At the same time, if in Russia the only real-life infrastructure development is transport, then in the United States, in addition to the development of the transport infrastructure, the development of village and urban infrastructure, communications and information, ejection supply, energy infrastructure on which was allocated 28.5 billion dollars (see Application). The EU special attention was paid to the Internet and invofitational-communication on that, there was a allocated about 25 billion euros. The main direction of the development of infrastructure in China is the transport and industrial infrastructure, including construction and new industrial facilities, for which about 144 billion dollars was spent.
Table 3 - Financing Energy and Infrastructure Projects
