Review of the financial stability of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Reviews of financial stability of the Bank of Russia. Distribution of financial stability reviews in the world

New sanctions led to the massive output of investors from ruble assets, which provoked the record of the ruble from December 2014. Russian financial markets that lived for two years almost without shocks, again fever. Will the monetary power be able to stop the storm or calmly the end?

For the past two years, Russians lived in unusual conditions for financial stability. The ruble exchange rate did not make sharp jumps, inflation gradually decreased, reaching record low marks. The Central Bank regularly reduced the key rate - from the maximum value of 17% in mid-December 2014 to date, it has fallen more than doubled, to 7.25%.

After new anti-Russian sanctions led to the sale of securities of Russian companies, followed by a stock market and currency. On Tuesday, April 10, the ruble continued to be cheaper in relation to the dollar and the euro during the trading on the Moscow Exchange. The dollar rate exceeded 63 rubles for the first time since December 2016, the euro rate was raised above 78 rubles for the first time since April 2016. For 9 and 10 April, the ruble lost to the dollar and euros about 10% - there were no such collaps in Russia for the last three years.

Financial authorities promise that the economy will cope with new shocks, and experts suggest that if a new round of sanctuction confrontation begin, the devaluation, defaults and financial destabilization will be waiting for Russia.

"This is a test for the Russian economy"

The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, speaking on April 10 at the Exchange Forum, stated that the economy adapts to new conditions. If there are risks for financial stability, the regulator has a set of tools to neutralize them. "The events that occurred on Friday ( new American sanctions. - approx. Bankery) naturally cause market correction, we observe it. As in such cases it happens, in the first days after the event there is an increased volatility, because there is still a lot of uncertainty. For investors, the consequences and boundaries of these consequences are not completely understood for market participants, there is a reason for all this. In our opinion, it takes some time to adapt the financial sector of the economy to these changed external conditions, and I am sure that the economy and the financial sphere adapt to this, "Nabiullina said.

"The central bank has a wide range of tools in order to act in different situations if risks for financial stability occur. In our opinion, there are no such risks now, there is no need to apply some system measures, "it indicated.

The Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin believes that new sanctions have become a "good test" for the Russian design of macroeconomics, financial markets will definitely solve these sanctions. "The events occurred are a good test for the macroeconomic design, which the government and the central bank build up the last few years ... There is volatility, and this is normal. A floating currency rate absorbs those shocks and those changes in the balance of demand and suggestions that occur, "he said. "Macroeconomics and financial markets, of course, can stand, you can not doubt," Oreshkin added.

Former Finance Minister, the head of the Center for Strategic Development, Alexey Kudrin, has already suggested that the Bank of Russia will not reduce the key bet in the next six months. (To new American sanctions, experts almost unanimously argued that the decline in the key rate will continue.) "Due to the fact that the weakened ruble will provide support to exports, an excess of liquidity may appear on the market. And this will have an impact on inflation. In this regard, the regulator needs to pay high attention to this question. Therefore, to wait to reduce the key rates in the next six months, I think, "said Kudrin.

Speaking in the sidelines of the April International Scientific Conference of the Higher School of Economics, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov did not rule out that in order to maintain financial stability, the regulator can resort to currency interventions, as well as again launch the currency repo operations again. "Currency repo no one turned off. If there is a need, this tool is always in stock, "he assured.

"Scary to all, and us, foreigners"

The main threat to the stability of the financial system of Russia is not sanction against the public debt, and the possible exacerbation of the military conflict in Syria, the financiers surveyed by Banks. Rouge in the sidelines of the Exchange Forum. "Predict the consequences, if suddenly the Armed Forces of the United States and Russia will face, I do not even take it. But it is scary. Scary to all, and us, foreigners, "the head of the major investment company shared. The top manager of another company said that now part of non-resident records profit, expecting that Sberbank can become the next sanction target of the West. "This is the most likely goal to enjoy the stock market. Therefore, from the point of view of investors who have already worked well on the growth of his shares, it is better to be renewed. Especially since the example of "Rusala" can be seen how much it can lose literally for the day or two even a large Russian company, "he explains.

"Panic must go on no subject to at least stabilization of the situation, it will give the opportunity to start the markets to recover. The aggravation of the conflict in Syria or the enhancement of pressure in the Russian Federation can lead to a much stronger drop. In the meantime, too many unknown in the current equation, so we recommend how to clarify the situation and buy even more expensive, but with greater confidence in the prospects, "Vladimir Vedeneev in his comments wrote in his comment.

Investors get rid of Russian bonds

Meanwhile, the US Congress made a law on a new package of financial sanctions against Russia, which radically tightened the acting sanction regime. In the case of the adoption of the relevant bill, any operations with the Russian State Dolg will be prohibited by American individuals and legal entities. Under the sanctions, according to the document, debt securities issued by the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the Central Bank or on behalf of the National Welfare Fund, which have a time of circulation for more than 14 days. It also applies to the bonds of seven state banks, which are equated with sovereign debt: Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Bank of Moscow, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank and VEB.

The document also requires tightening sanctions against the Russian state banks themselves: any operations with each of the seven credit organizations included in the blacklist are blocked.

Fearing the imposition of sanctions for sovereign debt, investors continued to sell bonds. From Friday, April 6, the cost of credit-default swaps (CDS) has risen more than 30 points, up to 154 base points. RGBITR State Bligation Index by 15:00 MSK on April 10 lost 1.5%. "Sales touched the entire spectrum of securities, as investors overestimated risks to Russia. There are concerns that the ruble will continue to be volatile, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will take a pause in the cycle of a key rate, "says Dmitry Postalhenko's portfolio manager. Debt market sales led to an increase in bond yields by an average of 30-50 b. P. According to some issues, yield rose to 0.6 percentage points.

We are waiting for the repetition of December 2014?

Against the background of sales by foreigners, the Ministry of Office, the Ministry of Finance, was forced to cancel the next auction (usually they pass on Wednesdays). At the last Auction of the State Bonds (April 4), the Ministry of Finance was able to sell paper for 20 billion rubles when demanding at 138 billion rubles. True, as the department later reported, 75% of the new release bought pension funds and the Criminal Code.

Analysts do not exclude that if the United States is decided to impose sanctions against sovereign debt of Russia, this will lead to a further increase in profitability. "We are waiting for the repetition of December 2014, but in a softer version, since now the company is less dependent on foreign currency debts, and in the Arsenal, the Central Bank has enough tools to stabilize the situation," the trader arises a large investment company. As a last resort, it notes, the regulator can resort to an increase in the key rate.

"As a basic scenario in case of adoption in the US, the draft law ( on new sanctions against Russia. - approx. Banks.ru.) It is worth considering the yield of a significant part of non-residents, first of all investors associated with the United States, from the Russian public debt, says Alor Broker's analyst Alexey Antonov. - Now, non-residents accumulate a little less than 30% of OFZ with different maturity times, so it is quite possible to expect a fall in quotations within 20% and increasing returns to 400 basis points. Such changes in theory will enhance the attractiveness of the tool for Asian investors who can partially replace European and American. Otherwise, the demand for OFZ will be formed at the expense of residents, primarily the banking sector in respect of which sanctions may also be expanded. "

We are waiting for the repetition of December 2014, but in a softer version, since now the company is less dependent on currency debts, and in the Arsenal at the Central Bank there are enough tools to stabilize the situation.

The weakening of the ruble can lead to the imbalance of the entire financial system

According to the analyst "Opening a broker", Andrei Kochetkov, if sanctions against the Russian banks and bonds of Russian banks are imposed, this will greatly complicate opportunities for borrowing in foreign markets. "In such conditions, the course of the national currency will immediately suffer, which may lose 10-15% of its value. In general, with such restrictions, there is an increase in the likelihood of nationalization of both banks and other corporations, which is already talking about the partial transition to the mobilization form of the economy, "he predicts.

The director of the Analytical Department of the IR Region, Valery Weisberg, does not see the threat of financial stability in the event of adoption of new American sanctions. "The ban on investment in Russian duty will have moderately negative consequences. Additional growth rates on Bonds are unlikely to exceed several dozen points. Liquidity in the banking system is enough to support medium-term rates at the level close to the key rate, and "digest" the issues placed by the Ministry of Finance, "he comments.

In addition, according to Weisberg, since the new sanction bill provides for a ban on investment only to a new Russian debt, the government can cost the definitions for some time.

The Asset Managing General Invest Denis Gorez, on the contrary, is confident that the consequences of introducing new sanctions can be extremely negative. "In essence, all investors in these tools ( in OFZ. - approx. Banks.ru.) They may begin to derive funds that it can be extremely negatively influenced by the ruble exchange rate, "he said. The manager does not exclude a stronger ruble correction. "Much will depend on how much the degree of political tension will be reduced between Russia and the outside world (especially the United States) - so far a lot says about what it is not much happening. Consequently, there is a risk of continuing pressure on Russia through sanctions, "says Gorez.

But the senior analyst "Alpari" Vadim Josub considers the adoption of sanctions towards the whole of the new Russian public debt, including the bonds of the largest state banks, an extremely unlikely event. "All the practice of adopting anti-Russian sanctions, starting in 2014, shows that they wear a point or stretched in time. Sanctions can beat on individual personnel, companies, their shareholders. But the most stringent options, like a disconnection from SWIFT, never passed, "he explains. In addition, the analyst reminds, at the beginning of the year in the United States have already gave an assessment to a complete ban dealing with the Russian State Dolgh and stated that such measures are not in the interests of America. "With regard to the last sanctions, adopted last Friday, the whole negative from them has already been marked by the market. There is no need to expect a further fall of the stock market and the ruble under their impact, "the Josub notes.

"Review of financial stability", published yesterday by the Bank of Russia, gives a detailed picture of an outstanding equilibrium in the Russian financial market. All the estimated risks of the Central Bank are located in the "green" zone, for the banking sector, percentage and credit risks are slightly more relevant - they are largely implemented in cases of Binbank and "discoveries" without great consequences for the market. Loans issued by banks in 2016-2017, in terms of risk levels are comparable to loans of 2010, the corporate currency debt continues to decline, the Central Bank has to even limit the expansion in the mortgage market. The main risks remain - and it is rather not sanction, but rapid growth in the USA, EU and Asia.

The first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Ksenia Yudayev, who submitted a review of the financiality for the second-third quarter of 2017, was almost nothing to pay attention to the risks of the financial sector. Reducing or unchanged the level of threats both in the entire financial market and in the banking market for six months and for the last quarter is fixed for all observable risks, except for some growth of their assessment for the currency money market and for the sustainability of bank funding. The Finnok of the Russian Federation is entirely in the "green" zone, the percentage and credit risks of banks as of October 1 were on the border "green" and "yellow" zone, and credit decreased.

Stably more or less everything. Among the developing countries of the Russian Federation is the only issuer of the ten-year owner, whose profitability has declined in September. Even the decline in the interest of non-residents to OFZ at the auctions of the Ministry of Finance since the end of October does nothing fundamentally change. The Central Bank did not include at an overview of the risk of strengthening external sanctions against the Russian Federation - mainly because they were detailed in detail in the August and Oktyabrsky sectoral Bulletins of the Central Bank (the latter during the restrictions for US residents of investments in the new Russian public debt expects long-term growth of return on insignificant 0, 3-0.4 percentage points). The Central Bank leads convincing data on the stability of the situation with the currency liquidity in banks until the second quarter of 2018 (in the third difference between liquid currency assets and redeemed obligations to banks with liquidity deficit increase to $ 3.7 billion, which is also insignificant).

The assumption of the Ministry of Economics on the "ascending Credit Cycle Phase" (see "Kommersant" dated September 1) an overview of the finistry is generally confirmed - and is accompanied by a reduction in the portfolio of currency loans. Two bank lending market segments are Mortgage and Retail Consumer - grow especially quickly, and banks with states are regularly more active than private in the consumer loan. The rapid increase in the Mortgage Market of the Central Bank does not bother - the amount of mortgage issued is now 6% of GDP against 20.8% of GDP in Poland and 48.6% in Spain. However, from January 1, the Central Bank introduces a soft restriction on the issuance of mortgages with a minimum starting fee, demanding a redundancy of 150% loans loans with an initial contribution of 20% of the total mortgage amount and 300% at a contribution of 10%. This, apparently, will further improve the quality of mortgage portfolios, in which the drawing is 2.9% (the proceedings of unsecured consums - 14.9% and continues to decline from the summer peak of 2016).

The new data of the Central Bank for Sanation "Opening" and Binbank show that it did not affect the dynamics of deposits in the banking sector, and they themselves have lost 5-10% of the ruble contributions of individuals and 20-60% of foreign currency deposits and deposits for November 2017 ( From the "discovery" currency deposits of Jurlitz more actively). The most demanding "bad debts" are concentrated in bank loans to builders and companies investing in real estate, however, the actual overdue design loans (17% of the portfolio) almost do not exceed the level of delay in the consumption recognizing the Central Bank with a relatively healthy segment.

The main risks are thus almost entirely focused outside the country - these are risks of growth in the value of borrowing in the United States, the EU and the UK, in many ways depending on the growth rates of their economies. Low growth rates in the Russian Federation with the achieved stability will make Russian Finns, as well as the markets of South Africa, Turkey and Brazil, are increasingly interesting for global investors. Note, the Central Bank states that credit GEAPs (simplified - the difference between the loan supply to the GDP and the long-term trend of this offer) in the banking system remain negative. It is not known whether there is reason to expect lending to lending in 2018 at the level corresponding to the Russian Federation with risk-free potential.

The Russian financial system in the fourth quarter of 2014 - I quarter of 2015 was faced with a number of problems (falling oil prices, an increase in payments on debt obligations, a decrease in credit ratings), which in the aggregate led to a significant increase in market volatility. However, the measures of the Bank of Russia and the Government "allowed relatively quickly to stabilize the situation," and "the financial system turned out to be resistant to external shocks", it is divided into its assessment of the Central Bank in a published "review of financial stability".

Durable buffer

According to the Bank of Russia, the foreign debt of banks and other sectors as of April 1, 2015 amounted to $ 509 billion - this is $ 106.6 billion, or 17% less than on October 1, 2014. The main factor of the decline was not repayment of debt, but its Course revaluation (reduction of the dollar value of the debt nominated in rubles and the euro as a result of strengthening the US dollar).

The Central Bank indicates a review that companies and banks have a sufficient liquidity buffer in foreign currency to repay external debts.

According to the Bank of Russia, as part of the operations of the refinancing of the Central Bank in foreign currency, the volume of funds raised by credit organizations amounted to $ 36 billion as of June 9, 2015. The magnitude of the unspent limit ($ 14 billion), according to the Bank of Russia, is currently sufficient to maintain stable Situations with currency liquidity in the domestic market. The maximum amount of repayment of the external debt of non-financial companies and banks was scheduled for the IV quarter of 2014 - I quarter of 2015, in subsequent periods, the volumes of repayments are noticeably lower, resembles the Central Bank.

In addition, the Central Bank notes, as the market opportunities improve, Russian borrowers began to enter foreign markets more often, internal accommodations are actively conducted. From November 2014 to April 2015, non-financial companies attracted subordinated loans and issued Eurobonds for $ 6.1 billion, credit organizations - $ 0.7 billion, according to CBonds news agency. The volume of placement of ruble corporate bonds during this period amounted to 1.8 trillion rubles.

In the risk area - builders and realtors

Nevertheless, the Central Bank allocates several risks for the coming quarters.

The Bank of Russia does not exclude that the expected tightening of monetary conditions in the United States is the first increase in the Fed account with a level of 0-0.25%, on which it has been in the last seven years, will lead to "moderately negative consequences" in developing countries: weakening currencies , growth of bond returns, outflow of capital. Conducting stimulating measures in the eurozone "can to a certain extent smoothing the negative consequences of the tightening policy of the Fed", but the uncertain situation with Greece contributes to the increased volatility of world currencies, according to the assessment of the Central Bank.

The uncertainty and relative to the dynamics of oil prices remains. However, the current level of prices for oils of the Urals brand is $ 60-65 per barrel - is "quite acceptable" from the point of view of the creditworthiness of Russian oil companies and the fiscal sustainability of the state budget, the Central Bank believes.

But the Bank of Russia considers it unrealistic "repetition of the situation in December 2014", under current conditions and notes: even in the case of an extremely negative scenario (a sharp drop in oil prices, capital outflows with emerging markets as a result of interest rates in developed markets) The Bank of Russia "has a wide arsenal of tools to ensure the sustainability of the financial sector."

The regulator is confident that oil and gas companies will maintain a sustainable financial condition even with the most unfavorable conditions of commodity markets - a price for oil at $ 40 per barrel. The impairment of the ruble compensates for the reduction of export revenues, and the tax burden changes as a result of the "tax maneuver" under current conditions are insignificant, the Bank of Russia notes.

At the same time, he sees high risks for such activities as construction, real estate and rental operations. Against the background of reducing the demand of the population at housing, the deterioration of the financial condition of companies rented commercial areas, "separate construction and development companies" have significant debts in foreign currency, while their foreign exchange income is limited, notes the Central Bank. In this regard, "the transfer of lending to this sector and rental payments to rubles will contribute to increasing the sustainability of the sector" to currency risks.

Professional - Home Banker Bankers

The key challenge for the banking sector in the coming year will be the implementation of credit risks in the conditions of the negative dynamics of GDP, warns the regulator. In most sectors of the economy there is already an increase in the share of "bad" loans against the background of a decline in business activity, states the Central Bank. A significant increase in overdue debts from the beginning of 2015 is celebrated in the construction, production of machinery and equipment for agriculture, trade. In the conditions of high debt load of the corporate sector, the deterioration of the quality portfolio of loans will continue, warns the Bank of Russia.

The situation in the market of unsecured consumer lending in the last six months also continued to deteriorate, but the analysis of the credit quality of various generations of loans (vintage) shows that in 2014 banks significantly tightened crediting standards, the review is noted. The Central Bank expects that the proportion of bad loans will reach its peak at 16.5-17% in 2015 - the first half of 2016, after which there will be an improvement in the situation.

Due to the implementation of credit risk, there has been a significant reduction in the profit of the banking sector due to an increase in reserves for possible losses on loans, which limits the possibilities of capitalization of banks. The package implemented in December 2014 made it possible to increase the sufficient sustainability of the sector's own estimates by about 1.5 percentage points. The contribution of these benefits was reduced by April 1, 2015 to 0.5-1.0 percentage points as the situation in the financial market stabilizes, indicated in the review.

The Central Bank notes that the decline in the key rate in 2015 "significantly reduces the expected losses from interest risk," but it recommends that bankers "improve the management practices" of this risk recommends.

An overview of financial stability is one of the main types of reports that reflect the point of the Central Bank to the situation in the financial sector. Regular publication of such reviews is carried out by most central banks of developed countries. The article presents the results of a comparison of financial stability reviews in Russia and abroad and recommendations on improving the quality of information and analytical materials of the Bank of Russia.

Plekhanov D.A. Institute of Comprehensive Strategic Studies (Ixi)

In response to the financial crises of the 90s. Monetary regulatory authorities began to pay close attention to the financial stability of the economy. This was expressed in the development of a wide range of financial stability indicators both at the national and international level, as well as the transition to the publication of regular reports on the financial sector situation. Currently, one of the main types of this kind of reports that has acquired the greatest distribution among central banks and international financial institutions is an overview of financial stability.

The relevance of monitoring financial stability has significantly increased due to the events that occurred in the global financial market in 2007-2008. The liquidity crisis, which broke out in the global financial markets in mid-2007 led to a significant write-off of the assets of large financial institutions. Central banks responded to the problems of the financial sector with a decrease in interest rates and change the conditions for the provision of loans to increase the liquidity of the interbank market.

The events that occurred in the global financial system led to new initiatives in monitoring financial stability. In the "Report on Global Financial Stability" prepared by the IMF in April 2008, representatives of the Fund note that at present the preparation of special reviews of financial stability aimed at informing the Company on the current risks and actions of monetary regulatory authorities aimed at Elimination of vulnerabilities in countries affected by the consequences of the global liquidity crisis.

Publication of financial stability reviews has several goals. The first and most obvious is to monitor the situation in the financial sector. Thus, in the 2007 Financial Stability prepared by the Bank, the following formulation of the publication objectives: "The purpose of this review is to analyze the conditions for maintaining financial stability. The publication of the review is aimed at informing the public about a wide range of issues regarding the ability of the Russian financial sector to resist the possible destabilization. "

The publication of the review pursues another equally important goal - increasing the transparency and accountability of the Central Bank's activities. The publication of the results of the analysis and research of the staff of the Central Bank in the review makes it possible to obtain an external independent assessment of the activities of the Central Bank by experts. Thus, the publication of the review may have an important disciplining role, presenting increased requirements for the activities of employees of central banks on the preparation of certain analytical materials in a specified format.

Distribution of financial stability reviews in the world

Currently, financial stability reviews publish 57 central banks, i.e. every third of the monetary regulatory authorities currently existing in the world. The first reviews were published in the second half of the 90s. Central Banks of England and Northern Europe (Sweden, Iceland, Norway). In the early 2000s. The number of central banks publishing a review of financial stability has increased dramatically (Figure 1). In general, after the onset of financial crises in the late 90s. Central banks began to pay increased attention to financial stability issues.

Figure 1. Number of central banks publishing on their websites of financial stability

On average, since 2002, the number of countries in which financial stability reviews are published annually by 10 countries. However, in 2007, the active growth of this indicator ceased. Thus, it can be assumed that all major central banks are currently publishing reviews of financial stability, and further growth in the number of countries in which reviews are issued will occur quite slow pace. At the same time, the greatest potential in terms of distribution of reviews have the regions of Asia and South America, which, on the one hand, have a rather high level of economic development, and, on the other hand, have a lower indicator of the popularity of reviews among the countries of the region compared to Europe (Table 1) .

It should be noted that the Bank of Russia also began to publish a review of financial stability by one of the first central banks in the world - in 2001. However, in electronic form on the Bank of Russia's website, the review applies only since 2003.

Table 1. Distribution of financial stability reviews in various regions of the world

Source: Sites of Central Banks

It should be noted that the Bank of Russia also began to publish a review of financial stability by one of the first central banks in the world - in 2001. However, in electronic form on the Bank of Russia's website, the review applies only since 2003. 2 In general, the publication of financial stability reviews to significantly depends from the level of economic development of the country. Countries in which monetary regulatory authorities issue regular reviews of financial stability, the average level of GDP per capita is $ 25 thousand (by purchasing power parity), and in countries where such reviews do not exist, the level of GDP per capita On average, 3 times lower and amounts to about 8 thousand dollars.

Currently, the practice of publishing financial stability reviews is gradually distributed in developing countries. Reviews of financial stability on a regular basis are issued in almost all countries of Eastern Europe. In 2006-2007 The publication of reviews began central banks of countries such as Romania, Qatar, Pakistan, Macedonia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Bolivia, Bangladesh and Bahrain.

Figure 2. Distribution of countries in terms of economic development and the beginning of the issue of review of financial stability

Comparative analysis of reviewing practices

The Bank of Russia publishes a review of financial stability, however, in its characteristics, it is inferior to similar reports that produce central banks both developed countries and countries with economies in transition. Materials of foreign central banks, as a rule, have a greater amount, provide information on more indicators of the state of the economy and the financial market, as well as in most cases include the results of stress testing - i.e. Quantitative assessment of possible consequences in the event of a crisis situation in the financial market (Table 2).

The elements of the "best practice" among central banks also include the release of a review of financial stability twice a year (instead of one). From those considered 57 central banks publishing reviews, 26 or 46% prepare reviews twice a year. In Russia, an overview of financial stability is published once a year and contains an analysis of the situation in the financial market for the previous year. However, a more relevant problem than the frequency of publishing a review is that this document prepared by the Bank of Russia comes out with a significant time delay. Thus, a review of financial stability for 2007 was published by the Bank of Russia on its website after almost four months after the end of the reporting period (April 22, 2008). In developed countries, financial stability reviews are usually more operational. For example, in the report of the Bank of England, published in April 2008, the data is presented for individual indicators until March 2008.

Most often, financial stability reviews are posted in a special section of the Central Bank site, which is called "financial stability" or "financial system stability". Links to these sections are located on the first page of sites of 4 central banks, in order for visitors it is more convenient to access these materials. The Bank of Russia is also advisable to create a special section of the site dedicated to financial stability, because Currently, the review is posted in the section "Publications and Reports" together with materials on the main directions of monetary policy and speeches of representatives of the Bank of Russia. In addition, it is advisable to supplement the review on the site by publishing in the same section of detailed statistical applications for review in Excel format. Such practice is quite common in the world and is used by the central banks of New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, South Africa, Sweden and England. Financial stability reviews are sufficiently voluminous documents containing a large number of economic indicators, so supplements to the review in the form of Excel files with data will have undoubted value for visitors to the site of the Bank of Russia.

Table 2. Characteristics of financial stability reviews

Source: Sites of Central Banks, Ixi Calculations

Content of financial stability reviews

An analysis of the situation in the financial sphere, presented in the reviews of central banks, is based on the monitoring of a large number of indicators. In general, the indicators presented in the reviews can be divided into 3 groups:

1. general macroeconomic indicators - indicators characterizing the development of the economy or financial system as a whole (GDP growth rates, balance of payments, inflation, etc.).
2. indicators of financial stability are indicators characterizing the stability or possible risks of the development of financial institutions (for example, the volume of overdue debt on loans, profitability of assets, etc.).
3. market indicators - indicators reflect prices for financial assets (shares, bonds, options, etc.) or obtained on the basis of polls of the participants in the financial market. Indicators of this species reflect in the form of the expectation of market participants. This information cannot be obtained from financial reporting indicators and, thus, is an important addition to predicting the development of the situation in the financial market.

The balance of indicators used in the Bank of Russia review is shifted towards general macroeconomic indicators, while in the review of financial stability relatively less attention is paid to the actors characterizing the state of the financial system (Table 3).

Table 3. Comparative analysis of indicators used in the review of financial stability

Note: Calculations for each Central Bank were conducted on the basis of the latest output of the review of financial stability (as of July 1, 2008)

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