| Introduction ................................................... .................................................. ....... | 3 |
| Chapter 1. The concept of value and profitability of a security ....................... | 4 |
| 1.1. The income and profitability of the security ................................................... ......... | 4 |
| 1.2. The cost and price of the valuable ............................................. ............. | 6 |
| Chapter 2. Determination of the cost and profitability .......................................... | 9 |
| 2.1. Stock ................................................... .................................................. .... | 9 |
| 2.1.1. Profitability of shares .................................................. ................................ | 9 |
| 2.1.2. The cost of shares ................................................ .................................. | 11 |
| 2.2. Bonds................................................. ............................................... | 15 |
| 2.2.1. The yield of bonds ................................................ ........................ | 15 |
| 2.2.2. The cost of bonds ................................................ .......................... | 18 |
| Conclusion ............................................................... .................................................. .. | 23 |
| List of sources used ................................................. ............ | 25 |
| Applications ................................................. .................................................. . | 26 |
Introduction
Currently, the Russian stock market remains largely by the service area of \u200b\u200bmainly speculative operations, its main participants are large companies. A private investor scares its complexity and instability. However, the transformation of the securities market into the mechanism of effective redistribution of investments is impossible without a population. Therefore, the topic of this test work is very relevant. After all, it is the ignorance of opportunities and advantages of investing in securities stops most of the people from entering the stock market.
Investing the savings, the buyer of the financial asset refuses some part of the material benefits in the hope of strengthening its well-being in the future. By carrying out financial investments, securities holder often pursues one goal - get income, increase capital or at least preserve it at the same level, which is especially important in inflation.
In the process of implementing financial investment in all its forms, one of the most important tasks is to assess the investment qualities of individual financial instruments that appeal on the market. Investment qualities of securities are determined by their correspondence to the goals that the investor places.
And since, as indicated, securities are purchased for the sake of obtaining income retrieved in one form or another, target This test work is to study the methods for determining the cost and profitability of securities. Subject conducted research are securities, object - Cost and income specifications of securities and their calculation.
The goal assumes the following tasks:
1) the study of the concepts of "cost" and "profitability" in relation to securities, the essence and characteristics of these concepts.
2) consideration of the basic formulas for calculating the cost and profitability, depending on the type of security and the conditions for its conversability.
Chapter 1. The concept of value and profitability of the security.
1.1. The income and profitability of the security.
Income is the difference between revenue and costs that is measured in monetary units. The yield is the ratio of income to costs, expressed as a percentage.
Income According to the valuable paper, this is an income that it brings in absolute (absolute yield) or relative (relative yield) of expression for a certain period of time, usually per year. This income falls into two types: income income as a title of capital, or accrued income, and income from security as capital, or differential income. The first is part of the income generated by valid capital, and therefore, in essence, the valid income is part of the promotion value; The second is income from capital operating as fictitious capital, i.e. This income is a pure redistribution of the already existing value.
The owner of the security is completely indifferent to the source of the income received by him, so in practice the following basic economic concepts of profitability are used: current return - the yield determined on the basis of the income accrued or both types of income for the period up to one year or from short-term operation, and full yield, Taking into account both types of income on valuable paper for a long period of time, but per year.
Number of profitability differ in the methods of their calculation; according to the degree of accounting in them other economic indicators (inflation, taxes, etc.); at a temporary interval (reporting, current, forecast); By the totality of securities (profitability of a separate securities, the yield of the group (portfolio) of securities, the profitability of the securities market (ie all securities in general)), etc.
The profitability of the security is defined as the percentage of the income received by it plus a change in the course price for the period of holding it by an investor to the cost of its purchase given to the annual calculus:
where Dh - profitability; IN - amount of dividend or coupon payments during the period T; - The difference between the purchase price and the sale price or repayment; - purchase price of paper; T - The period of time in days during which the investor owned the paper.
Bringing the yield to annual calculus is necessary to compare alternative options for investing funds with different periods of circulation. The yield calculation is always carried out at the current time, according to current course prices, since this is necessary for the adoption of current decisions. Accordingly, the growth rate increase lowers the yield of paper, although for its holder it means the growth of profitability in relation to the previously perfect transaction.
The calculation of profitability under the specified formula is not entirely accurate, since it does not take into account the possibility of reinvesting income for the period under review. The refined calculation of returns implies a complicated interest. The above formula allows to understand the meaning of the calculation of profitability, more accurate calculations are carried out taking into account the specifics of the issue, repayment and payment of income in relation to each specific valuable paper.
Securities can be both income and indestructible (when they represent a simple certificate for goods or money, and not to capital: for example, an exhibition or check). (Appendices 1 and 2)
The income received by valuable paper is always associated with risk - the income can be obtained in size less expected, not at all, moreover, invested cash may be lost.
The place of the main types of income securities in terms of the risk ratio and the level of profitability can graphically be depicted as shown in the figure.
Picture. Interdependence of income and risk.
1.2. Cost and price of securities.
The concept of the value of the security can not coincide with the concept of the value of the usual product as the materialization of socially necessary labor on its production, since the security is not produced. Its objective economic basis, or a source of origin, is not labor directly, but its abstract form - capital.
Security Paper is the unity of the capital title (valid capital) and capital itself (fictitious capital), and therefore, unlike a simple product, which has only one cost - the cost of the goods itself, the security has two prices:
1) cost as a representative of valid capital, or nominal value;
2) cost as fictitious capital, or market value.
Nennaya value The valuable paper is expressed in the amount of money that securities presents when exchanging it on real capital at the stage of its release or damping. This amount of money is called nominal value.
Based on the value of the security, certain indicators of the capital of a legal entity, obliged for this valuable paper, and is also established (calculated) accrued income, i.e. In fact, the fee for the use of capital, title or whose representative is this securities.
In practice, the accrued income exists in two forms: in the form of a dividend (according to shares) and the percentage (for the remaining securities).
The denomination can be expressed as the amount of money enshrined behind the specific property (product), when the workplace is a representative of the goods (commodity capital), and, in fact, it is the denomination of this product that has a certain monetary assessment.
Nennaya cost is the cost of securities as title. In its monetary form, the nominal value is valuable.
Market value Security arises as a result of capitalization of its property rights, because, due to this process, the securities and turns into capital, although fictitious.
The main property right in valuable paper is its right to income, so the cost of the security is primarily the capitalization of this income. However, the receipt of accrued income is not the only right of valuable paper at its owner, the rest of the rights also have something or another in its cost or are cost-forming factors. Therefore, the most abstract model of the market value of the security has the following form:
where With the Central Bank - To D. - capitalization of accrued income; To pr - Capitalization of other valuable rights rights.
Capitalization of income accrued is private from dividing this income to the market (usually bank) interest rate. Capitalization allows you to calculate the amount of capital, which, being put on a deposit under this interest rate, will bring income equal to accrued income.
Unlike the right to income, other valuable rights are not amenable to strict quantitative assessment. The more their significance from the point of view of the market, the less determined the process of pricing on this valuable paper, the higher the role of subjective psychological assessments.
Market Price of Security - This is a monetary assessment of its market value. The most abstract model of the market price of the security has this kind:
where C centuries - market price of securities; With the Central Bank - market value of the security; C ro - market expectations regarding growth or reducing market prices compared with the cost of security in absolute terms; N k - Market percentage of market prices deviations from its value (in fractions).
In practice, the market price of the securities has such names as a course value, a course price, a course, a market quotation, etc.
Chapter 2. Determination of the cost and profitability.
2.1. Stock.
2.1.1. The profitability of shares.
The income components, which can bring the action, are dividends and an increase in exchange rate. Being a security holder, an investor can only count on receiving dividend According to shares, i.e. on current payments for valuable paper. The factors determining the size of the dividend are the conditions for its payment, the ACCH net profit and the proportion of its distribution, which depends on the decision of the Board of Directors and the General Meeting of Shareholders. After the implementation of the promotion, its holder can get a second component of cumulative income - the increase in exchange rate. Quantitatively, it is indicated as an income equal to the difference between the purchase price and the gas sale. Naturally, when the sale price is exceeded above the purchase price, the investor receives income, and when there is a lot of capital in the stock market, the investor has a loss of capital.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the calculation of income on shares depends on the investment period. If the investor exercises long-term investment and in the investment period, according to which the stock returns estimate is not included, then the current income is determined by the magnitude of dividend paid. With this situation consider current profitability those. Excluding the implementation of the action, which is calculated as the relation of the dividend received to the acquisition price of the Promotion:
,
hPE D H. - profitability; IN - current payments for valuable paper; C - purchase price of the action; T - The time for which dividends was obtained.
In addition, you can count current market profitability which will depend on the price level existing on the market at every given point in time:
,
hPE - current market yield; C p - The price existing on the market at the moment.
If the investment period, which is estimated by shares, includes the payment of dividends and ends: sales, then income is defined as total dividends, taking into account the change in the course value, i.e.
,
hPE D- income; C pr - Selling price.
Yield is an ultimate (full), If the investor has implemented its valuable paper. This yield for investment periods is formulated:
,
and in the event that the investment period will exceed the year, then the formula for the final profitability per year is the following form:
,
where Dh k. - finite profitability; p - The time of finding a shares from the investor.
If the investment period does not include dividend payments , That income is formed as the difference between the price of buying and selling. I.e:
D \u003d ts ,
and can be any value: positive, negative, zero.
In this case, profitability is calculated as the ratio of the difference in the sale price and purchase to the purchase price:
Example : Calculate the expected profitability of shares that currently cost 100r., In a year, an increase in the share of the share to 115 rubles is expected to increase, and at the end of the past year, a dividend will be paid in the amount of 5 p. per share. The expected profitability of the shareholder will be:
The main factors affecting the profitability of shares can be attributed: the size of dividend payments (derivative value from net profit and proportion of its distribution); oscillations of market prices; inflation rate; Tax climate.
When determining the profitability of shares, it is necessary to distinguish between the nominal and real yield. Nominal yield Determined on the basis of revenue revenue due to dividend payments and the increase in the exchange rate of shares. When calculating the nominal profitability, the inflation component is not taken into account, which "eats" part of the income. Therefore, to determine the actual yield, calculate real profitability According to shares as the difference between the nominal yield and the rates of inflation. This indicator characterizes the actual capital gain from ownership of shares.
2.1.2. The cost of shares.
To determine the current stock shares, the investor must make a forecast for the future value of shares and expected dividends. In this case today's price Shares can be determined by the formula:
where IN - Dividends for the year of ownership of the action; C 1 - stock price in a year; FROM - discount rate.
In the previous example (clause 2.1.1), the expected dividends make up 5 p., The share price is 115 rubles in a year, and the rate of return on shares with a similar risk level is 20%, then the acceptable stock price of shares is:
The calculated price shows the upper limit of the stock price for investors focusing on the purchase of securities with this risk level. If the shares of this company in the market will cost cheaper than 100 r., Then the investor is advisable to purchase these shares, since in the case of the achievement of forecast indicators for dividends and the price of shares, in a year it will receive profitability from its investments more than 20%. If the stocks will cost more than 100 r., The expected profitability will be less than 20% in a year. In this case, the investor is advisable to search for other financial instruments with a similar risk that provide 20% yield.
In the event that the investment period will exceed the year, the formula for calculating the stock price is currently possible as:
,
where IN - Dividends B. i. -the year; C P. - stock price a year p; FROM - expected yield rate; i. - 1,2, 3... p - The sequence number of the year.
On an unlimited time horizon, since the company ideally may exist forever, the value of the stock seeks to zero. Indeed, the expression with will be infinitely low-level, which can be neglected. Then the definition formula current price Shares will take the following form:
.
If the amount of dividends does not change over the years, then the investor receives a regular identical cash flow during an indefinite period of time called rent.
The current cost of indefinite rent is equal to the amount of annual revenues divided by the discount rate. Consider this on the example of the company, which on shares annually pays an equilibrium dividend in the amount of 10 p. If the required yield (discount rate) is 20%, then the current price of this promotion will be: 
This approach to determining the cost is used for preferred shares with a fixed dividend rate. According to ordinary shares, the company rarely pay the dividends unchanged in all years of their existence. If the company develops with constantly stable rates, then it can be assumed that the dividends will grow with the same pace.
If annually dividends grow with a constant tempo (P) And at the same time, the growth rates of dividends are smaller than the discount rate, i.e. P< C, then in this case the total price of the action is determined by the formula:
After some transformations, this formula will go to the following final expression:
When using this formula for determining the price of the action, it is necessary to take into account that it is suitable only if the discount rate FROM More expected growth rates of dividend payments P. If the value P Close to meaning FROM, then in the formula the denominator (P-s) becomes a very small magnitude, and the price C p - Unlimitedly large, and the formula has no economic meaning.
Therefore, when using this model, a number of assumptions are made, in particular:
Dividend payments are increasing annually with the same rate of increment;
The growth rate of dividends reflects the growth rate of the company and its assets;
The required yield is always higher than the growth rate of dividend payments.
The disadvantage of this model lies in the fact that the growth rate of dividend payments does not always reflect the growth rate of the company and the dynamics of changes in market prices. In some cases, the firm to create the visibility of well-being continue to pay a high dividend, leaving an increasing part of the profit for the development of production. This leads to the fact that the pace of dividend payments is preserved as the same, and the growth rate of the company slows down. It is possible to consider the opposite situation when the meeting of shareholders decides not to pay dividends, but to send the entire net profit to expand the production base. In this situation, if IN \u003d 0, then C R. \u003d 0. Guided by formal features from the point of view of the investor, investments in these securities are not of interest, since they do not bring the current income in the form of a dividend and the value of these shares is zero. However, this conclusion will be absolutely erroneous, as the profit reinvested in the business increases the cost of the company, the amount of assets per share and the future flow of cash payments. In this situation, the price of shares can not only not decrease, but also increase.
In order to eliminate the noted disadvantages, a modified model of shares is developed based on dividend payments, which takes into account that part of the profit is subject to reinvesting with a certain level of profitability. If in the above model dividend payments to express across the share of profit, then it will turn out:
where PP. - net profit; H pp. - Profit share aimed at reinvestment.
Reinvested profits ensures the development of the company and to a certain extent establishes the growth rates of the company's assets. However, the growth rate of the company will depend on the efficiency of using reinvested funds. If there is highly efficient projects, the growth rate will be higher. Therefore, in the model of assessment of shares instead of the growth rate of dividend payments P The coefficient is introduced, which takes into account the effectiveness of reinvestment, which is determined by the formula: 
,
where H pp - profits aimed at reinvestment; R - The yield of investments in the development of the company.
In this case, the modified shared assessment model has the following form:
,
where PE 0 - The expected profit of next year.
for example , Investor suggests that next year the company will receive a profit in the amount of 12 p. per share. The share of profits directed to reinvestment is 58%. Investor required yield is 30%. Profit directed to the development of production ensures profitability of 35%. In order to evaluate the company's shares, you need to use the modified sharing model:
When used in this model, the indicator characterizing the yield of reinvested funds, the result is more reliable, since the reinvested profits gives a larger profit and a greater flow of dividend payments. This allows the investor to make a more reasonable conclusion about the feasibility of acquiring the company's shares in the stock market. If the stock market is quoted at a price of 40 p., And a cash assessment is obtained in the amount of 51.54 rubles, this indicates that the shares are undervalued and there are grounds for their acquisition.
2.2. Bonds.
2.2.1. Yield of bonds.
Depending on its type, the bond can be income in two ways:
1) in the form of interest rate (coupon) on a loan, which in most cases is a fixed annual amount, which is paid either every six months or once at the end of the year;
2) in the form of capital growth, which is expressed by the difference between the price of buying a bond and the price, in which the investor sells a bond (which can be the amount of repayment of dated bond).
The coupon is a cut-off coupon with the donation number indicated on it. According to the methods of paying coupon income, the bonds are divided into:
Bonds with a fixed coupon rate;
Bonds with a floating coupon rate when the coupon rate depends on the level of the loan interest;
Bonds with a uniformly increasing coupon rate by the years of the loan.
The coupon bond can be sold below the nominal - with a discount, or above the nominal - with a premium. In this case, the full income on the bond will be made up of coupons paid plus the difference between the sale price and the purchase price.
The price of the bond is closely related to its face value, because It will be redeemed at the nominal value.
For discount (illegone) bond The yield formula will look like this:
where Dh - yield to repayment; p - the number of years before maturity; N - C p - Market price bond, r.
For example: Bonnet bond with a nominal value of 1000 p. quoted at a price of 735 p. To repayment remained 4 years. If the investor acquires this bond and keeps it to repayment, its annual yield will be:
As previously indicated, illegal bonds are short-term papers, which, as a rule, appeal no more than a year. Therefore, the indicator p is a fractional number. In practical activities for short-term bonds, a simplified method of calculating the rate of profitability of redemption is quite widely used:
where Dh - yield to repayment; N - nominal value of the bond, r.; C. - price of bonds, p.; t. - Number of days from the date of purchase before the date of repayment of the bond.
The first doubt shows the real profitability that an investor will receive for a period of ownership of the bond. Using the second factory, the actually obtained yield is given to the annual dimension.
By coupon bonds There are two profitability indicators: the current (coupon) and complete. Current return Determined by the formula:
where In S. - the annual amount of coupon payments; C p - Current market price of bonds.
for example : The bond on the market is quoted at a price of 950 p. According to the bonds during the year, 100 p coupon is paid. The current yield on this bond is:
In addition, the bond market calculates complete yield, i.e. The yield that an investor will receive if the bond retains to the repayment date. Due to the fact that the bonds on the market are quoted at a price different from the nominal, and when repaying the bond, the investor receives a denomination, then full yield differs from the current.
Full yield Coupon bonds are calculated on special computer programs or on tables. In some cases, complete yield is determined by the simplified formula. In this case, the calculated yield is indicative. The calculation of indicative returns is carried out by the formula:
where N - C. - price of bonds; p - the number of years before maturity; In S. - The annual amount of coupon payments.
for example : N \u003d. 1000 r.; C. \u003d 850 r.; In C \u003d. 150 r.; n \u003d 4 years. Hence:
Accurate profitability calculated on a computer program, in this example is 20.89%. As can be seen, the error was only 0.62%. At the same time, it should be paid to the fact that the yield indicative turned out to be lower than the exact one. Such an effect occurs if the bond on the market is sold at a price below the nominal. If the bond is sold with a premium, i.e. At a price higher than the nominal, then the estimated yield will be overpriced compared to the exact one.
From the indicator of indicative returns, you can go to the accurate profitability indicator. To do this, use the formula:
where Dh but - profitability indicator below indicative profitability; Dh in - indicator of profitability above indicative profitability; C but - Dh No. ; CVO - The price of bonds calculated for DX V. .
If in the example DH 0 \u003d. 20.27%, then as Dh No. You can take 20%, and for DX V. \u003d 21%. For these indicators of profitability price of bonds:
Based on the data obtained, the exact full profitability will be:
A specific feature that must be taken into account by determining the potential income from the bond is that interest rates and price of bonds change in opposite directions. Consequently, the general rule is: bond prices are growing as interest rates fall and fall as interest rates increase.
2.2.2. The cost of bonds.
In general, the current price of the bond can be represented as the cost of the expected cash flow given to the current time. The cash flow consists of two components: coupon payments and denominations of bonds paid upon its repayment.
That is, the price of the bond is the present value of coupon payments and a one-time paid amount of the nominal value of the bond under redemption.
The price of the bond is determined by the formula:
where IN - coupon payments; R - required yield; N - nominal value of the bond; p - The number of years before the repayment of the bond.
For example: If an enterprise produces a 3-year bond with a nominal value of 1000 p. With a coupon rate of 12%, on which coupon payments are made once a year, and a market interest rate on similar bonds is 15% per annum, the company can calculate the price of selling bonds under the above formula:
With mounted coupon income in the amount of 12%, the company will not be able to sell bonds at par. This is due to the fact that the market profitability of similar financial instruments is 15% per annum, and the coupon enterprise will pay only 12%. Therefore, investors will not agree to buy bonds at par, the enterprise will have to reduce the price, and when it reaches the equilibrium level of 931.5 p. For the bond, then the purchase and sale of bonds will be committed. If the company seeks to save on coupon payments (for example, to establish them in the amount of 8% per annum), then it will have to reduce the price of selling the price that investors acquire bonds.
Coupon payments can be made several times during the year (quarterly or half a year). If payments are carried out several times a year, the above formula is somewhat modified and will have the following form:
where t. - The number of coupon pays during the year.
Consider the previous example on a 3-year bond with the same parameters, but payments for coupons are produced twice a year. In this case, the price of the bond will be equal to:
According to these bonds, the enterprise for the period of their action will produce 6 coupon payments of 60 p. Everyone as can be seen, the price of the bond with semi-annual coupon payments is higher and is 939.1 p. This is due to the fact that coupon payments are not produced at the end of each year, but after half a year. The investor earlier receives funds that he can use for his needs. Therefore, for earlier money receipts, he is ready to pay a higher amount for the bond.
Due to the fact that operations with securities are permanently carried out, bonds are sold (bought) throughout their duration of their appeal. The day of the operation in most cases does not coincide with the beginning of the coupon period. The bond can be bought on any day of the current coupon period. Therefore, when determining the price of the bond, it should be borne in mind that before the maturity remains not a whole, and the fractional number of coupon periods and that the bond seller needs to compensate the accumulated coupon income. In this case, the price of the bond, on which the coupon income is paid once a year, is determined by the formula:
where IN - the amount of coupon payments; R - yield to repayment (discount rate); p - the number of years before the repayment of the bond; i. - sequence number of the year from the current date; N. - nominal value of the bond; k. - Share of the coupon period from the date of purchase of bonds to the date of its end.
Value k. t. - The number of days from the date of the transaction to the date of payment of the next coupon.
If coupon payments go several times during the year, the above formula is somewhat modified. In the formula, instead of the number of full years, it is necessary to take the number of coupon payments. In this case, the fractional part of the coupon period is determined, taking into account the number of days in the coupon period. If the number of coupon payments is equal to t, That in the formula definition of the price of the Bond indicators i. and p multiply on t, And the value k. Determined by the formula: where t. - the number of days from the date of the transaction to the date of the next coupon payments; t. - the number of days in the coupon period.
When borrowing, the enterprise's short segment is sometimes resorted to the release of illegal bonds that sell investors with a discount at a price lower than the nominal. The illegal bond can be viewed as a private case of a coupon bond, only all coupons are equal to 0. Therefore, the price of a cordless bond is calculated by the formula:
A distinctive feature of illegal bonds, as mentioned above, is a short period of circulation (up to 1 year). In this case p, Which in the formula shows the number of years before maturity, it turns out a fractional value. In order not to arreave into a fractional degree, in practice, the simplified formula for determining the value of illegal bonds is widely used:
where t. - the number of days before the repayment of the bond; R - Market year-old.
for example : It is required to determine the price of an infectious bond with a denomination of 1000 p., Which is produced by an enterprise with a period of circulation of 182 days. A market interest rate on bonds of a similar type is 15% per annum. Under such conditions, the price of the bond will be equal
After placing bonds, they are sold in the secondary market. At the same time, the price of bonds is very mobile, they undergo constant changes that occur under the influence of many factors.
Conclusion.
The stock market is the market on which they trade in a specific commodity - securities. Really, these papers are practically nothing. However, their value is determined by assets (property, jewels, etc.), which are behind these papers. Securities is a representative of valid capital (in the case of government securities - an indirect representative), which can be used both both loan, and both industrial, and as commodity capital, but the security itself is a form of investing loan capital.
Securities - the result of separating the functions of the owner to valid capital from the control functions of this capital. The owner of the actual capital exchanges it on a valuable paper, which means the acquisition of them of relevant property (and non-property) rights, allowing to have its own interests and other benefits, primarily in the form of obtaining the right to income.
The yield is the manifestation of the capital nature of the security, the dual character of which is expressed in two forms of its income: accrued income and differential income. Accrued income is an income that brings securities as a representative of valid capital. Differential income is an income that brings securities as a fictitious capital.
Securities, in contrast to the usual product, has two costs and their corresponding two prices: a none value and a denomination; Market value and market price. The nominal value of the security is the value of the valid capital it represents. The market value of the security is the result of the capitalization of its property rights.
Valuable paper exists only in the sphere of circulation in which it makes its circuit: release, appeal and quenching. The circulation of the security allows the actual capital, the representative of which it is, to focus as much as possible at the production of surplus value.
Securities has a consumer value inherent in it, which is rooted not in its material content, but in its property rights. The consumer value of the security cost is its quality that manifests itself in the three main properties: liquidity, yield and risk.
It is impossible to choose such a type of papers, which would be at the same time the most reliable, most profitable and most liquid. The choice of specific attachment directions depends on the goals that bonds provide for the safety of savings and fixed income and therefore are of interest to careful investors seeking to maintain their capital and let it be small, but guaranteed income. Shares with favorable market conditions can be implemented at the exchange rate price, several times higher than the price of their acquisition. However, with the deterioration of the financial situation of the joint-stock company, not only the course of shares falls, but also reduces or reduces the size of dividends on them. Shares are attractive to investors, ready to take risks, play on the course difference of the purchase price and sales of papers.
Thus, each securities not only has its own special qualities and properties, but also, as shown by the conducted study, individual methods and formulas for calculating cost and income characteristics, which allow any market in the market to form a personal investment strategy, taking into account their own preferences, experience, relationships to risk, amount of free cash.
List of sources used:
1. Civil Code of the Russian Federation. - M.: NC ENAS, 2005.
3. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 4, 1994. № 2063 "On measures for state regulation of the market TSAGs in the Russian Federation".
4. Berdnikova TB Market securities and stock business. - M.: Infra-M, 2003. - 534 p.
5. Zolotarev V. S. Securities Market. - Rostov N / D: Phoenix, 2000. - 352 p.
6. Lyakin A.N., Lapinskas A.A. Rock of securities. - 2nd ed., Pererab. and add. - SPb.: Search, 2004. - 462 p.
7. Securities Market: Tutorial. / Ed. V.A. Galanova, A.I. Basova. - 2nd ed., Pererab. and add. - M.: Finance] Statistics, 2004. - 448 p.
8. Stock Market: EDUCATION. Manual for Higher. Education. head ECON. Profile. / State University. - Higher School Economy Higher School of Management. Ed. N.I. BERZON. - 3rd ed., Pererab. and add. - M.: Vita-Press, 2002. - 560 p.
Attachment 1
Securities
The following types of securities are determined in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation:
Bill (Article 815). Simple bill - There is no reason for the obligation of the rates of the rates to pay the amount of money provided for by the exchange rate provided for by the exchange rate. Translated bill - There is no reason for the obligation of another (and not a drawer) of the payer specified in the bill account on the occurrence of the term provided for by the loan amount of money.
Bond (Article 816) - Securities certifying the right of its holder to receive from a person who has released a bond into the nominal value of the bond or other property equivalent. The bond provides its holder is also the right to receive a fixed interest in it from the nominal value of the bond or other property rights.
State bond (Article 817) is a legal form of a state loan agreement; It certifies the right of the lender (ie, the owner of the bond) to receive from the borrower (ie, the states of funds given to him or depending on the conditions of the loan of other property, established interest or other property rights in the time limits provided for by the terms of the loan in appeal.
Savings book on bearer (Article 843) is the legal form of the Certificate of the Banking Deposit Agreement (Deposit) with a citizen and making funds to his account, according to which the Bank, who received the amount received from the Depositor or received a sum of money (contribution), undertakes to return the amount of the contribution and Pay interest on her face presented by a savings book.
Savings (deposit) certificate (Article 844) - Securities certifying the amount of the contribution made to the bank, and the rights of the depositor (certificate holder) to receive after the established period of the deposit amount and due in a certificate of interest in the bank, issued a certificate, or in any branch of this bank (on Practice Savings certificates are distributed among citizens, and deposit - among legal entities).
Receipt (Article 877) - Securities containing an uncommonled disposal of the bank of the bank to make the payment of the amount specified in it by the Chek holder.
Warehouse certificate (Articles 912-917) - Securities confirming the adoption of goods for storage. Double warehouse certificate It consists of two parts - warehouse certificate and collateral testimony (Varanda), which can be separated from each other, and each individually has a personal securities. Simple warehouse certificate - This is a warehouse for bearer.
In the federal law "On the securities market" is given a definition of a promotion (Article 2): Stock - Emission valuable paper, enshrining the rights of its owner (shareholder) to receive a part of the profit of the joint-stock company in the form of dividends, to participate in the management of joint-stock company and part of the property remaining after its liquidation.
In the Federal Law "On Mortgage (Pledge of Real Estate)" defines the concept of mortgage: Mortgage - Personal security certifying its owner's right in accordance with the mortgage agreement (property of real estate) to obtain a monetary obligation or the property specified in it.
Appendix 2.
Table - Comparison of the main characteristics of securities.
| By type of capital | In the form of capital | Type of contract | In terms of existence | In the form of existence | In order of fixation of the owner | By type of issuer | By availability accrued |
By registered ™ | |
| Stock | share | monetary | constituent | durable | paper, paperless | name, presenter | non-state | revenue | registry-steering |
| Bond | debt | monetary | loan | urgent | paper, paperless | name, presenter | revenue | registry-steering | |
|
a) commodity b) Financial |
debt | commodity money | loan | urgent | paper | name | non-state, state | individual, revenue | nongest-ringer |
| Warehouse certificate | debt | commodity | storage | urgent | paper | name, presenter | non-state | indulgent | nongest-ringer |
| Bill of lading | debt | commodity | transportation | urgent | paper | name, presenter | non-state | indulgent | nongest-ringer |
| Bank certificate | debt | monetary | bank deposit | urgent | paper | name, presenter | non-state | revenue | registry-steering |
Savings bearer |
debt | monetary | bank deposit | urgent | paper | name, presenter | non-state | revenue | nongest-ringer |
| Receipt | debt | monetary | bank deposit, accounts | urgent | paper | name, presenter | non-state, state | indulgent | nongest-ringer |
| Mortgage | debt | monetary | property pledge | urgent | paper | name | non-state | revenue | registry-steering |
Under the profitability of securities is a possibility, the ability of security to bring revenues. It is calculated in the form of a percentage based on the ratio of income received for the year on this valuable paper, to the market value of this asset. As an income, as, however, not only money, but also bills, goods, securities, etc., can act as initial assets.
The income on valuable paper can serve as dividends (on shares) or the amount of interest (for other types of securities). The income is also obtained as a result of the growth of securities. The profitability of securities can be viewed and as a profit rate that the owner of the security receives. The profitability indicator of securities at all times exceeded the indicators of return on banking monetary deposits.
There are various types of returns: effective yield and simple yield, which in turn is divided into redemption, dividend yield. The effective profitability of securities differs from a simple thing that takes into account the possibility of reinvesting securities. What of these varieties of profitability to be used for analysis depends on the type of securities and from the intentions of the securities owner relative to the nature of its investments. For example, if the investor focuses on long-term securities, more objectively assess the effectiveness of investments will allow the effective profitability of securities.
The additional and aggregate profitability of securities is also calculated. The additional profitability of the security is the ratio of the price difference and the price of the purchase of securities to the price of purchasing this security. This indicator is expressed in percent, as well as all profitability indicators. The total yield of securities is defined as the ratio of cumulative income from the security to the acquisition price, expressed as percentage. The cumulative revenue for the action is defined as the amount of dividends and the growth of the market price of the action, and on the bond - the amount of coupon and additional income.
The yield of various securities is different, they are most often determined in different ways, various factors affect them. For example, the profitability of shares is determined by the ratio of the dividend, which is due to one ordinary share, to the market value. This indicator is influenced by such factors as the size of dividends, an increase in the course of shares, the rate of inflation and the amount of taxes from organizations. While the yield of the bond is defined as the annual interest rate of coupon income to the price by which the bond was purchased. The profitability indicator of this security takes into account all revenues that bonds.
For clarity and convenience of analysis, curves of profitability can be built. They represent a chart that reflects the dynamics of changes in indicators of profitability, taking into account the maturity of the security.
Figure 1 - Schedule of the profitability of securities
This schedule shows that the higher the profitability of the security, the later the date of its repayment.
When papers begin to generate income, then the process of payment of dividends on shares or interest on bonds begins. Dividend is part of the net profit of the joint-stock company, and the other part of this profits is formed by the so-called retained earnings, which can be used by the joint-stock company for the development of production, financing capital investments, the creation of a reserve fund and other purposes. Net profit directed to the payment of dividends is distributed among shareholders in proportion to the number and type of shares belonging to them. At the same time, it is forbidden to declare and pay dividends if the joint-stock company is insolvent or may be such after the payment of dividends, as well as if there are losses on the balance sheet. Dividends are not paid on shares that were not issued or on the balance of society. Conditions to receive dividends are the right to holders acquired no later than 30 days before the officially announced date of payment.
Income on bonds is usually lower income on other types of securities, a change in bonded courses largely depends on the market situation and in the economy. Interest on bonds is paid to the holders of bonds at the expense of the Company's net profit, and in case of its insufficiency, due to the reserve fund formed by society.
The most important point in the assessment of any financial instrument is the ratio between the expected income and the degree of risk. The degree of risk is usually directly proportional to the expected return on investment.
Risk understands a certain probability of deviation of events from the average expected result. Each type of operations with securities is inherent in its own level of risk.
The most characteristic types of risks inherent in securities include:
1. The risk of non-payment, that is, failure to fulfill the conditions of obligations, for example, non-payment of the borrower of the amount of debt or percent on it. The greater the risk of non-payment, the more expected in compensation for the risk premium, the greater (other things being equal) the expected income income. Government securities are usually treated as risk-free, so they are based on the assessment of other securities.
2. The risk of liquidity is associated with the possibility of losses in the implementation of securities. In the secondary market, this risk is manifested in reducing the estimated price of the action or changing the amount of commission for its implementation. If it is impossible to realize the issuance of securities on the primary market, the risk of non-dissolutions arises, i.e. the unclaiming of securities.
3. Risk of repayment period. Usually the more maturity, the greater the risk of oscillations of the market value of the security. Therefore, investors need a risk premium to encourage them to buy long-term securities.
In many operations with securities, the Bank acts as an investor. Any investment implies the existence of a certain adverse event, as a result of which:
* Future income may be less than expected;
* income will not be obtained;
* You can lose part of the invested capital;
* Possible loss of all capital, all investments in the valuable paper.
Other factors affecting the expected profitability of securities can be attributed to taxation and inflation. So, significant pressure is inflationary expectations. It is believed that the nominal interest rate on securities includes an inflation premium. This dependence occurs if the rate of change of the nominal interest rate corresponds to the level of inflation. However, in the conditions of an unstable economy, the relationship between inflation and interest rates can also be changed over time.
Also distinguish between systematic and non-systematic risk of securities:
Systematic risk is determined by global circumstances that do not depend on the investor and the issuer. So circumstances include political events at the country level and internationally, changes in legislation, economic reforms, etc.
Non-systematic risk is determined by the factors associated with the activities of the issuer's enterprise and changes in market conjuncture.
Thus, securities are an important component of the stock market. They are produced and posted. And the yield and risks in the securities market are closely interrelated.
securities Stock Exchange
The real profitability of securities does not depend on their type, as it is directly dependent on investment risks. High risk suggests.
- dividends on shares;
- coupon income of bonds;
- speculative income.
Dividends on shares
Part of the company's profits that shareholders receive. The size of dividends depends on the type of shares, the results of the financial activities of the company and decisions taken at the meetings of shareholders. Dividends pay each year, half or quarter.
Coupon income of bonds
The income of bond holders paid by the issuer of securities. Coupon income - peculiar interest on the loan that the issuer received at the holder of bonds at the time of their sale. Coupon revenue is paid regularly in a strictly agreed period. The number of coupons and their yield is established at the emission of the bond. The bond is issued for a certain period and brings income to its owner within this period.
Speculative income
Revenue income from securities. For speculation of securities needed. Speculative income occurs at the time of the transaction.
Payment
The profitability of the security is the amount of the interest rate ratio of its income and changes in the course value for the period of possession of the cost of its acquisition, which is based on an annual calculation:
Calculation of the profitability of securities
- DH - yield;
- B is the sum of coupon or dividend payments during the period T;
- ΔK is the difference between the acquisition price and the sale price (repayment);
- CPC - purchase price;
- T - the possession of the valuable paper (in the days).
Payback period (Payback Method) - the duration of the period during which the amount of net income discounted at the time of investment is equal to the amount of investment.
To determine the payback period, it is possible to use the formula (2) by seeing it accordingly. The left part of this formula is equal to zero and we will assume that all investments are made at the end of the construction. Then the unknown value of the period h from the end of the construction, satisfying these conditions, and will be a payback period for investments.
The equation to determine the payback period can be written as:
where KV is the total investment in the investment project.
Note that in this equation T \u003d 0 corresponds to the end of the construction. The value of H, considered as the return time interval number, is determined by consistent summation of members of a number of discounted income until an amount equal to the volume of investments or exceeds it. Obviously, on the amount of payback period, in addition to the intensity of income receipt, a significant impact discount rate has been significantly influenced.
4. Industry project
Profitability indicator (Benefit-Cost Ratio), or the profitability index (Profitability Index) of the investment project, represents the ratio of the reduced income to the investment spending on the same date.
Using the same designations as in formula (2), we obtain the profitability formula (R) in the form:
As can be seen from this formula, it compares two parts of the present net income - profitable and investment.
If at a certain discount rate of D * the profitability of the project is equal to one, this means that the reduced income is equal to the reduced investment costs and the net reduced income is zero. Consequently, D * is the internal rate of profitability of the project. With a discount rate, smaller IRR, profitability greater than 1.
Thus, exceeding the unit of profitability of the project means some additional profitability in the interest rate under consideration. The case when the project profitability is less than one, means its inefficiency at a given interest rate.
Comparison of performance indicators
All considered indicators of the effectiveness of the investment project are closely related. This is explained by the fact that all of them are built on the basis of discounting payment flow
1.4 Fundamental analysis
In practice, two ways to study the dynamics of prices in the securities markets are widespread. The first is a fundamental analysis. This is an analysis of the economic factors of this system, which one way or another affect the price. In the fundamental approach, they are trying to find the actual cost of the object on the basis of the laws of supply and demand.
Full fundamental analysis is carried out on three levels. Initially, within its framework, the state of the stock market economy in the chamber of this is considered the state of industries and sub-sectors of the economy presented in the stock market
1.5. Technical analysis
Technical analysis This is a study of market dynamics, most often through graphs, in order to predict the future direction of price movement. The term "market dynamics" includes three main sources of information: price, volume and open interest (the volume of open positions in the event of an analysis of the market for term contracts).
The market takes into account everything. All that in any way affects the market price, without fail at this very price will affect.
Pricing movement is subject to trends. The concept of trend or trend (Trend) is one of the fundamental in technical analysis.
Securities management operations.
1. Pre-accumulation in special accounts, on special funds for investing in securities.
4. Insurance of securities and operations.
5. Repayment of securities obligations, interest payments, dividends.
6. Reinvesting dividends from securities.
7. Creating reserves against all sorts of losses on securities.
The main characteristics of securities.
Reliability - The level of guarantees for the preservation of investments.
Yield And risk - closely interrelated. There is an inverse relationship of risk from profitability.
Liquidity - The ability of securities to turn into cash. Liquidity level depends on reliability and profitability
Prices and formation of securities prices
Distinguish the nominal price, selling price and market price of securities.
Nominal The stock price is set at the time of the initial release and depends on the amount to which promotions are supposed to be issued, as well as on the number of shares issued.
Selling price. Given the conditions for the placement of shares (bonds), market conditions, the demand for stocks, the sale price can be set (for example, at a nominal value of 100 tons.) In 95 or 110 t. P.
Establishment market price - The process is very complex. It is influenced by the political situation in the country, inflation rates, budget deficit, price level. The process of quotes is very dynamic. In a more simplified form, the market price is defined as the amount of dividend / the average interest rate of the Bank on deposits, or
Strategic management in the formation of a securities portfolio provides for the execution of such functions:
Assessment of the investment attractiveness of assets;
Analysis of the market for alternative investments;
Analysis of the market environment, strengths and weaknesses of major competitors, their share, in the market;
Search for new features, analysis of the needs of potential customers;
Dynamic observation of market conditions
Investors are customary to four types:
1) Conservative investors are interested in obtaining stable income over a long period of time. They prefer a continuous flow of payments in the form of dividend, and interest payments and, as a rule, limit their risk to a minimum.
2) Moderate-aggressive investors - do not limit the investment period, income includes both percentage and dividend payments and the difference of securities courses. Measure the presence of a certain calculated risk.
3) Aggressive - aimed at obtaining a maximum course difference from each transaction, where high risk is constantly present and the investment period is limited.
4) Sophisticated are highly qualified professionals, not only knowing, but also intuitively sensory market. Taking on high risks to the market, they can quickly diversify them as a result of various financial transactions
Types of investment portfolios are conforming to investment purposes (types of investors):
· The conservative investor is a conservative portfolio;
· Aggressive investor - an aggressive portfolio;
· A moderate investor is a balanced portfolio.
The main characteristics of the portfolio are profitability, risk and period of ownership.
The yield of the portfolio is the relative income of its holder for a period expressed in% per annum.
The risk is a quantitative representation of the uncertainty in which an investor is located, and associated with incomplete information regarding future income (losses) on securities belonging to the portfolio.
Another portfolio characteristic is a period of ownership - this is the time period during which the investor holds a portfolio. This characteristic for a particular portfolio is constant.
Maintenance conclusions portfolio theory investments, it can be formulated so
1) the effective set contains those portfolios that simultaneously provide the maximum expected yield at a fixed risk level, and the minimum risk at a given level of expected profitability;
2) It is assumed that the investor chooses the optimal portfolio from briefcases that make up an effective set;
3) The optimal investor portfolio is identified with a point of touching curves of an investor indifference with an effective set;
4) as a rule, diversification entails a decrease in risk, since in the general case the standard deviation of the portfolio yield will be less than the weighted average standard deviations of the profitability of securities that make up this portfolio;
5) the ratio of the profitability of the security and profitability on the index of the market is known as a market model;
6) the yield on the market index does not reflect the profitability of the security fully; Inexplicable elements are included in the random error of the market model;
7) in accordance with the market model, the overall risk of securities consists of market risk and its own risk;
8) diversification leads to averaging market risk;
9) diversification can significantly reduce their own risk.
5.8 The yield of valuable papers - the ratio of annual income on the valuable paper to its market price; The rate of profit received by the owner of the security.
Profitability - Quantitative characteristics of the valuable paper that determines its value for the investor.
In practice, the following basic economic concepts of profitability are used:
current - this is the yield determined on the basis of the accrued income or both types of income for the period up to one year or from short-term operation;
full - profitability that takes into account both types of income on valuable paper for a long period of time, but per year.
Forex market traders use two main types of analysis - fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is used to predict the movement of the currency exchange rate based on political and economic indicators. Technical analysis uses historical and economic data for this.
An annual income is consisted of the growth of securities and income amounts (percent, dividends) paid on securities. The yield is usually calculated as a percentage per year, percentage of annual.
The calculation of financial yields allows you to compare the effectiveness of investments in securities with the effectiveness of alternative operations (for example, placement of funds for bank deposits or deposits). For different types of securities, different types of profitability are calculated: yield to redemption and dividend yield. When calculating profitability, it is possible to take into account the possibility of reinvesting obtained funds (effective yield).
Yield depends on risk measure. The higher the profitability of the security, the higher the risk measure.
The yield in general is calculated by the ratio of profits received by the investor during the possession of the valuable paper to the cost of its acquisition. The yield is usually determined as a percentage.
Distinguish the following types of profitability:
1)Yield to repayment of bonds YTM is the internal profitability rate of cash flow on the bond with the intention of the buyer to hold this bond to repayment. The calculation of this indicator allows the investor to calculate the fair value of the bond. The ytm calculation is similar to the calculation of the IRR (internal return rates).
If coupon yield is less than YTM, then the bond must be sold with a discount
If the coupon yield is YTM, then the bond must be sold at par
If the coupon yield is greater than YTM, then the bond is sold with the award (price of the bond\u003e 100%)
2)Internal rate of return (- IRR (GND)) is a percentage rate in which the net discounted income (NPV) is 0. NPV is calculated based on the flow of payments discounted for today.
In other words, for the CF payment flow, where CFT is a payment through T years (T \u003d 1, ..., n) and an initial investment in the amount of IR \u003d - CF0 the internal rate of return IRR is calculated from the equation:
Year flow payment
NPV calculation:
i \u003d interest rate
NPV \u003d -100 +120 / [(1 + I / 100) ^ 1]
The calculation of IRR (in percent):
3) The profitability of discount securities is the interest income on the valuable paper purchased with a discount. Calculated by formula
wheref - the nominal value of the security, P is the price of the acquisition of the security, T - the time remaining until maturity.
The yield of discount securities (discount return) determines the interest income in relation to the nominal value and not to the price of acquiring the security as in the case of calculating the yield to repayment.
This indicator is used to calculate income on treasury bills. Using it is associated with a simpler indicator of return on the repayment of the calculation formula.
3) Current profitability of interest bond - This is the amount of coupon payments for the year, divided into the current market value of the bond. In the past, the current profitability indicator was used instead of returning to repayment.
Current yield \u003d C / P0.
The current yield is a simplified indicator that allows you to compare several bonds. It does not reflect the overall yield of the bond during its entire period. The calculation is not accepted:
Reinvestment risk (bid uncertainty in which future bank flows can be reinvested) or
The fact that the bond is redeemed at par, and this is a significant part of the income on the bond
Example of calculation
Calculation of the current profitability of the bond with a par value of $ 100, a coupon rate of 5.00% and a market value of $ 95.00 (net price that does not include NKD):
Ratio with other types of profitability
Bond with a premium (price above the nominal): Coupon rate\u003e \u003d current profitability\u003e \u003d yield to repay
Bonds at par: Coupon rate \u003d current return \u003d yield to repayment
Bond with discount: Coupon rate \u003d< Текущей доходности =< Доходности к погашению
3) Dividend profitability (Eng. Dividend Yield) is the ratio of the value of the annual dividend per share to the price of the action. This value is expressed most often in percent.
At the price of the share of OJSC LUKOIL 1124.37 rubles and dividends 28 rubles per share Dividend yield will be equal to: 
4) Annual interest profitability ANNUAL PERCENTAGE Yield, APY) - an income rate calculated with the application to deposits or investment products of complex interest.
The formula for calculating the annual interest profitability
where INOM is the nominal rate of the annual complex interest, N is the number of intervals of the accrual of an annual complex percentage per year.
So, if the bank charges income on the annual challenging percentage daily (the interval of the accrual of an annual complex percentage is equal to one day, the year of such intervals 365) n \u003d 365, income is charged daily at the rate of calculation 
. If the rate of the annual complex percentage is 0.06 (6%), then the annual percentage yield is calculated as follows:
The theory of net expectations explains the dependence of the income rates from the urgency of the financial instrument. The theory comes from the fact that the tools with different maturity are substitutes.
The concept of profitability
Income You can define as a regular cash flow to cover costs. This cash flow usually has the form of interest (from bonds) or dividends (from shares), but also income can be obtained from capital in the event of liquidation.
Yield The security is defined as the percentage of the income received by it plus-minus change in the course price for the period of holding it by an investor to the cost of its purchase given to the annual calculation.
In outline, investments that are more suitable for income- These are bank deposits and money market tools, high coupon bonds, high-income equity tools. Investments that are more suitable for capital growth include equity tools, mutual funds and zero coupon bonds.
2. The profitability of shares
There are such investments in stocks that are capable of providing income above the average market. The constitutive income will be dividends and the growth of the course value.
Being a security holder, an investor can only calculate the dividend on shares, i.e. on current payments for valuable paper. FactorsThe dividend size determines the conditions for its payment, the mass of net profit and the proportion of its distribution, which depends on the decision of the Board of Directors and the General Meeting of Shareholders. After the implementation of the promotion, its holder can get a second component of cumulative income - express course value. Quantitatively, it is indicated as an income equal to the difference between the purchase price and the sale price.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the calculation of income on shares depends on the investment period.
annual yield
Calculation of profitability
Abbreviations to be used in the future: B - current payments for valuable paper; C is the purchase price of the action; C1 - sale price; The CR is the price currently existing on the market at the moment; CE - the purchase price of the action; D - income; DH - yield; DHP - current market yield; Dhk - finite profitability; P - loss of capital; T1 - the time of finding a shares in the investor; Being a holder (owner) of a security, an investor can only expect a dividend for shares, i.e. Current payments for valuable paper (B).
After the implementation of the promotion, its holder can get a second component of the cumulative income - an increase in exchange rate. Quantitatively indicates as an income equal to the difference between the purchase price (C) and the sale price (C1).
Calculation of income on shares depending on the investment period
If the investor A exercises long-term investment and in the investment period, according to which the share profitability assessment occurs, its sale is not included, then the current income is determined by the amount of dividend paid (B). With this situation consider current return (Dh), i.e. Excluding the implementation of the action, which is calculated as the attitude of the dividend received to the acquisition price of the action (CE).
In dh \u003d x 100 / CE
In addition, you can calculate market current yield (DHR), which will depend on the price level existing on the market at every given point in time (CP): in DHP \u003d X 100 / CP
The main factors affecting the profitability of shares can be attributed:
the size of dividend payments (derivative value from net profit and proportion of its distribution);
oscillations of market prices;
inflation rate;
tax climate.
Evaluation of the action in terms of their returns assessing shares from the point of view of their profitability, the operator acting in the Western stock market shares them to a number of categories:
Shares with high liquidity on which active transactions are undergoing, allowing income even from small price fluctuations (these shares are called "Nail Program");
Shares that are leaders for an increase in exchange rate having a maximum value of C1 - C are called "premium".
Close to them for the formation of income and "charming" shares are shares of young companies that are actively increasing in price. For maximum income on such shares, good investments and active monitoring are preferred.
The following group constitutes shares that do not have oscillations of market prices and, therefore, C1 - C have such shares less than in the first group, but they are characterized by a stable dividend (B).
Such operations, in particular, belong:
"Center" - leaders of a group of shares affecting the entire group;
"Blue chips" - shares of credit, powerful companies that have a stable position in the market;
"Shares of the second echelon" belong to large, but sufficiently young companies, they possess the properties of "blue chips", but enjoy smaller confidence in investors4
"Defensive" shares - shares of large companies with high investment qualities that allow you to prevent C1 - C< 0 даже при падающем рынке, и высокие стабильные дивиденды (В) . Для акций этой группы возможны среднесрочные и краткосрочные инвестиции, и мониторинг может носить пассивный характер.
3. The yield of bonds
From the point of view of paying income distinguish coupon and discount bonds. Depending on its type, the bond can be income in two ways:
1) in the form of interest rate (coupon) on a loan, which in most cases is a fixed annual amount, which is paid either every six months or once at the end of the year.
2) in the form of capital gains. It is expressed by the difference between the price of buying a bond and the price, in which the investor sells a bond (which can be the amount of repayment of the dated bond).
Coupon It is a cut-down coupon with the donation-stated digit on it. According to the methods of paying coupon income, the bonds are divided into:
W bonds with a fixed coupon rate;
B bonds with a floating coupon rate when the coupon rate depends on the level of loan interest;
W Bonds with evenly increasing coupon beta by the years.
Coupon bond can be sold below par - with discount, or above Nominal - with a premium. In this case, the full income on the bond will be made from paid coupons plus-minus the difference between the sale price and the purchase price.
Of principled importance for the formation of the exchange rate price of the Bond and, therefore, the calculation of its profitability has the level of banking rates on deposits.
The price of the bond is closely related to its face value, because It will be redeemed at the nominal value
At the same time, the profitability formula for the discount bond will look like this :?
The formula for calculating the yield of bond to repay looks like this:
Yield to redemption \u003d discount / current cost / number of days before repayment * 365 * 100%
Determination of the yield of coupon bond
Current yield is determined by the formula:
The yield of the Bonnaya Bond:
N - nominal bonds; P - price of the bond;
A specific feature that must be taken into account by determining the potential income from the bond is that interest rates and price of bonds change in opposite directions. Hence, the general rule is such: Bond prices are growing as interest rates fall and fall as interest rates increase.
Interest rate changes have a different impact on bonds with different maturity. The longer the repayment period, the higher the risk that the price of the bond will undergo strong oscillations, and therefore, even more high compensation for additional risk require investors.
Normal yield curve (Fig. 1) shows a sharp increase in the profitability of short-term bonds to the medium-term and not so sharp difference between medium and long-term bonds. Actually, it should be, because the more the investor risks, the more he expects to receive for his risk.
The yield of securities - income on valuable paper, expressed in the form of interest rates. The income rate on the valuable paper is defined as an annual income (dividend or the amount of interest) as a percentage of the market price of the asset.
The profitability of the action is the ratio of profits per ordinary share towards its market value.
The yield of the bond is the characteristic of the real financial efficiency of investing in the bond in the form of an annual rate of complex interest, taking into account all types of income from the bond.
The yield in redemption - when selling and buying - the yield to the repayment, in which the underwriter offers investors securities for sale.
The inflationary premium is an additional income on securities, set to compensate for their owners of the expected damage from inflation.
The inflation premium is part of the rated interest rate reflecting the expected level of inflation.
Nominal income - fixed income on valuable paper in percentage terms to its nominal value.
Positive income - income exceeding the expected level of inflation.
The required yield is the marketable profitability of financial instruments required by the market to bring potential income and comparative risk of buying these financial instruments. Usually the required yield relates to bonds.
Current securities revenue - the ratio of the annual dividend or the amount of interest to the security course.
Cost of capital is the required income on the draft budget of the company's long-term investment.
Pure interest income - interest income after taxes and commissions.
Investment in a broad sense means any process to preserve and increase the cost of monetary or other means.
Portfolio It is a certain set of corporate actions, bonds with varying degrees of collateral and risk, as well as fixed income securities guaranteed. Thus, the securities portfolio is the tool with which the investor is ensured by the required sustainability of income at minimal risk.
Heading is a method based on insurance price losses in the physical market in relation to the futures or optional market. The hedging mechanism is that the market participant occupies exactly the opposite positions at each time.
Shares
The action is recognized as security certifying the right of its holder (shareholder) to receive a part of the profits of the joint-stock company (AO) in the form of dividends, to participate in the management of JSC and part of the property remaining after the liquidation of JSC. Only joint-stock companies have the right to issue shares. Shares are issued without a set of circulation.
Ordinary shares have several types of value.
- nominal value - This cost is declared, or nominal, the cost of one share. It is not a measure of measuring any properties of the action and, thus, with the exception of accounting, is relatively useless.
- Liquidation Cost - is an indicator that the company is able to submit to the auction if it has to terminate its activities. After an ordinary or auction sale of assets at the best price of all possible, after repaying the obligations and payments to the owners of preferred shares, the amount known as the liquidation value of the company remains.
- Market Cost - the value of the value is the easiest to calculate, since the market value simply represents the stock price dominating the market. Essentially, the market value is an indicator of how the market participants generally estimated the cost of one share. Multiplying the market value of one share on the number of companies available in circulation, you can also get the market value of the company itself.
Market price - This is the price for which the action is sold and bought in the secondary market. The market price is usually installed at the bidding on the stock exchange and reflects the actual price of the action with a large amount of transactions.
The main characteristic of the action is its course value (stock course). Under the course of the action it is understood as the relative value showing how many times the current value of the action (according to which it can be purchased currently in the market) more nominal:
An indicator reflecting the average price of shares and other securities on a certain set of companies is called a stock exchange index. The index allows investors investing money into securities to evaluate the state of both the stock market as a whole and the reliability of its own assets.
The reasons that explain the greater attractiveness of shares for investors is:
The possibility of obtaining significant profits on them. The market market share usually reflects the company's profitability potential, so investors flourishes during the company. Increased profit, in turn, turns into an increase in shares (capital gains) and is the most important part of the income from the shares;
The ability to be highly liquid. Ordinary shares are easy to buy and sell, and the cost of carrying out operations with them is small; But, in addition, information about courses and information about the state of the market are distributed in the news and media.
The course of one ordinary shares is quite low, so its purchase is quite accessible to most of the foreign investors and investors.
However, there are some disadvantages of investing in ordinary shares.
risky security character.
it is difficult to conduct an assessment of ordinary shares and consistently select those of them that have the most interesting prospects, since profits and dynamics of the profitability of shares are susceptible to wide fluctuations.
Bonds
The bond is a security certifying the cash holder and confirming the obligation to reimburse him the nominal value of this security into the period provided for in it with the payment of a fixed interest (unless otherwise provided by the rules of the issue).
The main differences between the bonds from the promotion:
The bond brings income only for a strictly defined date specified on it;
Unlike a non-guaranteed dividend on a simple shares, the bond usually brings its owner income in the form of a predetermined percentage of nominal value;
The bond of the joint stock company does not give the right to perform its owner as a shareholder of this company.
Income on bonds is usually lower in stock income, but it is more reliable, as a lesser extent depends on the situation in the market and cyclic oscillations in the economy.
Today in Russia you can meet several types of these securities: bonds of domestic (state) and local (municipal) loans, as well as bonds of enterprises and joint-stock companies.
Nominal price Bonds serves as a basis for further recalculation and when accrued interest. Besides her bonds have redemption The price that may coincide, and may differ from the nominal depending on the loan conditions. In addition, the bond has a market price determined by the conditions of the loan and the situation that has undergone in the bond market. Course bond - This is the value of the market price, expressed as a percentage of the nominal. If the bonds are sold below the nominal, and they are expensive at par, they say that the sale is made "with a discount". If the bonds are sold at par, and they are repaid with the accrual of additional interest, they say that bonds are repaid "with a premium". Sometimes annual interest accruals are combined with a discount or award.
Elements of technical and fundamental analysis
1.Technical analysis In its simplest form, it includes the study of the stock market conjuncture in order to give a forecast for the dynamics of shares of a particular company. Tools for technical analysis - graphics. They clearly reflect the final picture of the motion of the market and courses of individual issues. Information on price movement is represented by a graph (curve), in which the analyst is trying to find stable, repeated configurations. The main types of such configurations (behavior types) are classified, and in current prices about prices are trying to detect one of them. If this manages, the future price behavior is predicted on the basis of such a configuration.
An alternative method of studying the market is built on the use of different types of statistical data. Consequently, technical analysis is the analysis of data in time; For him, it is necessary to have information for any period of time to analyze it by technical methods.
Usually, technical analysis of shares are engaged to a deeper fundamental analysis. If, from the point of view of technical analysis, this issue of shares seems interesting, then they continue to study it with fundamental analysis by means of fundamental analysis. If, from the point of view of technical analysis, the issue is not of interest, their attention switches to other shares. Fundamental analysis
It includes a complex of analyzed indicators. This is an analysis of economic indicators, social factors and government policy of the economic cycle on their basis can be predicted by the movement of price and market trends. At the heart of stability, any currency contains such factors as social, political, economic indicators. Based on their fundamental allows the trader to analyze and predict the trends of the currency.
Economic fundamental analysis for Forex includes a number of macroeconomic factors, such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, unemployment rate, as well as market demand and proposal factors.
Based on the political and social powers, the purpose of the fundamental analysis is:
Studying market demand and suggestions Balance of the price currency price. Interest rates and total strength of the economy are the main indicators that affect the production balance of consumption.
The overall health of the economy can be analyzed through a number of economic indicators, such as GDP.
The main elements of the economy, which takes into account the fundamental analysis of Forex.
The attractiveness of passive income is undoubted, but not everyone knows how to approach the organization of carefree life. Securities will bring stable passive income if you can select the object for attachments correctly.
"If you do not learn the company, the likelihood of successful stock purchase is the same as the probability of winning poker when ordering bribes with closed eyes," -.
Perhaps not everyone knows what is "passive income," but many would like to receive it. Any action undertaken once, and bringing constant income since then without attracting attention to it (or with minimal attracting), determines the concept of "passive income". Passive income does not depend on daily activities and is the basis of financial independence. In the recent Soviet times, passive incomes were outlawed and wore the name of non-hard income.
Obtaining passive income possible:
- From share in business
- In copyright
- In the Internet
- On financial pyramids
- In the form of a pension
- Securities
Consider the last - passive income in the form of securities. Securities are a financial instrument, attachments in which a stable passive income can be brought. For the correct investments, the investor must have certain knowledge and skills that allow you to determine which securities make the maximum income with the least risks for the depositor.
Classification of securities
Securities - a legally eligible document released in a certain form according to the law. This document gives the right to the owner in relation to the issuer - the face that has released securities.
Securities can be:
- Named
- ORDERS
- For bearer
The classification is built on the principle of the order of confirmation of the rights of the owner of the security.
Depending on the maturity, securities are divided into:
- Short-term (up to 1 year)
- Medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years)
- Long-term (over 5 years)
- Indefinite (upon presentation)
You can classify securities as depending on the issuer. Distinguish securities:
- State (federal or municipal authorities)
- Corporate (enterprises, corporations)
- Individuals
- Foreign issuers
For profitability, securities are divided into:
- Banking (deposits, savings certificates)
- Non-banking
Subject investment
Shares - securities, whose issuer is a joint stock company. Shares are issued in order to increase equity. The promotion contains a certain proportion of the investor in the authorized capital of the issuer. Share income is the right to receive a dividend. Dividend is a certain percentage of the company's profits. The term of the action is limited by the issuer's elimination of the issuer or deciding the decision of the General Meeting of Shareholders on the repayment of shares.
Shares can be:
- Simple
Entry from ordinary shares depends on the income of the enterprise and the payment policy of dividends
- Named
Nominal shares are recorded in a special book, which indicates the name of the owner, the number of shares and the time of their acquisition
- Privileged
Such shares do not allow to participate in the management of JSC, but allow us to receive dividends and the right to reimburse their share in the liquidation of society
- For bearer
Registered like registered shares, but only their number is indicated.
The income of shareholders consists of dividends for shares and changes in their exchange rate value. Investors who play on the course difference of shares are divided into two groups: "Bears" are waiting for a decline in the course, "bulls" are waiting for raising. Share capital has good resistance to inflation.
Investor Speaker in stock
At first glance, it may seem that the investment in the promotion is a complex process, and profit is almost incredible. In fact, for successful investments in shares it is enough to be a reasonable person with some life experience. We all witness the oscillations of the stock market, due to the fact that there is a constant movement of money from some issuers to others. If we consider the picture in a longer perspective, despite the short-term fluctuations in courses, the overall increase in the value of shares is obvious. It is easy to conclude that long-term investments in the promotion are justified.
In this case, of course, one should not consider such investments as profitable in any case. It is necessary to clearly imagine the reason for which the rise in value, in your opinion, will be sure. Analysts declare a long stagnation of the stock market. In part, this is true: the shares are actively buying, rising to a certain maximum price and fall, often failing below the starting position. Many exchange players enjoy these price jumps, earning "quick money."
At the same time, the analysis of the situation shows that the income of decades of shares can be about 30% per annum. It is additionally possible to include shares of enterprises of the sectors of the economy, in which the state intends to carry out modernization. That is, the possibilities are enough, they only need to be able to use.
To manage promotions, you can use the following information:
- Daily financial publications
- News programs
- Reports and reviews of large investment companies
For the practical application of the knowledge gained, you can apply a small virtual training.
Suppose you have 300 thousand rubles that you intend to invest. Take the rule:
- Do not spend more than 10% of this amount on the shares of one issuer
- Investing about 30 thousand rubles per month in stocks presented on MICEX or RTS stock exchanges
- For the balance of industry risks to invest in the promotions of various industries
We will invest with minimal risk, i.e. With the highest possible loss of no more than a third of the amount and the increase in the value of shares from 30%. The portfolio will be composed of shares with a good perspective of growth. When a predicted growth is achieved in 30%, we analyze the state of the market and decide whether to leave the portfolio or sell part of the shares.
Of course, information threatening with big losses should lead to the immediate sale of shares. It also follows themselves with shares, the cost of which sharply jumps. Often, the like occurs occurs with a massive scope of shares with low liquidity. In this case, it will be necessary to declare the sale of half of such shares at a two-time and three-time jumps of their cost.
Industry Review Investor
Oil and gas
The stock market of the energy sector is very difficult, and here you need to be especially careful. For more than two years, the value of the shares of oil and gas companies shows a tendency to decrease at high. The growth of stock quotes can be gradual together with increasing oil prices. It can significantly affect the investment of the policy of major market players and the state.
In any case, you can purchase Paper Rao Gazprom and Rosneft, as the most powerful industry representatives. Shares "Surgutneftegaz" are interesting to high cost growth dynamics, so some of them can also enter the portfolio.
Electric power industry
The choice of shares to purchase a branch to reform the industry, which is stated by the state. The papers of the past reform of enterprises are not interested, since they are already evaluated by the market. Maximum interests for the investor must submit companies and facilities that are members of the state modernization programs and have strategic importance. It is necessary to acquire low-liquid stocks of companies that have the prospect of becoming in the near future "blue chips". To do this, you need to know government plans in the electric power industry at the implementation of specific projects.
Communication
The era of the rapid development of digital technologies can not disregard the stock market of companies of communication. The communication services market has large development reserves, and shares of companies operating in this sector are high liquidity. The prospects for large strategic investments within sectoral or regional development play a major role in determining securities of one or a company. Track promising companies of communication, which are intended to be used in such programs and acquire their shares - the key to the success of the investment in this sector of the economy.
Air transportation and aircraft construction
Undoubtedly, an interesting sector. In case of confirmation of forecasts for the price collapse in the oil sector, increased due to the reduction in flight costs of air carriers, will allow to compensate for financial losses in the oil and gas basket (we recall that a third of the airlines costs are fuel costs).
In addition, the sector itself has serious financial perspectives. Indirectly this can be judged by the fundamental update of the aircraft park over the past few years. The most promising company, of course, is OJSC Aeroflot - Russian Airlines with a control packet of 51.2% owned by the state.
The military manufacturing industry is also very interesting for the investor. Rearmament of military aviation based on the planned association of military airline enterprises (Irkutsk and Taganrog aircraft facilities, association of them. Yakovlev) in a single corporation with a controlling stake in the state and guaranteed state orders, makes promising investments in this area.
Banking sector
You can acquire shares of the most dynamically developing banks of the Russian Federation. Recently, "Vneshtorgbank" can be attributed to such. VTB is actively increasing the number of branches, demonstrates the increase in the number of lending programs and quality of service. The possibility of obtaining major foreign credit resources (for which VTB has all the grounds) makes it today very promising for investment.
Thus, when drawing up an investment portfolio on the above principles with shares of a dozen most reliable and promising companies, one can count on an annual income of 30% of the invested funds. We also note that, with proper investment, this is not the limit: the growth value of high-liquid securities often reaches 40-60% per year. Investments in securities are a very exciting occupation. They are interesting because they require knowledge and ability to anticipate prospects in various fields of economics and finances.
