1. To which phases of the classic economic cycle (crisis, depression, revival, rise) include the following economic phenomena:
a) rapid drop in prices;
b) a slight increase in production;
c) overproduction of goods;
d) suspension of falling prices, stabilization of inventories;
e) price increases and reducing unemployment.
2. The threshold is used in the description of cyclic processes. What are the types of threshold magnitude? Give examples known to all thresholds in macroeconomics.
3. Consider the mechanism of cyclic development of the economy, built on ideas:
a) update of fixed capital;
b) Connections of a multiplier principle with an accelerator.
What causes the movement on the phases of the cycle in each of these models? Can they be used to explain the flow of the cycle phases if the crisis phase was caused by preproduction?
4. In what sense are we talking about the natural level of unemployment? Is unemployment - is it a "natural" phenomenon for a normal economic situation?
5. Jewelers are customary to call the first bankers, as they took for a certain remuneration for storage gold and other values \u200b\u200bfrom the population. What, however, the fundamental difference between banking from the storage chamber functions?
6. Consider the following components of the money supply:
a) metal money in stock;
b) urgent contribution to savings bank;
c) you have banknotes in your hands;
d) bonds of the state loan;
e) current account in the bank.
Which of the listed articles are included in the M1, M2 monetary unit?
7. Are the following statements are true:
a) "The demand for money from the asset is in the opposite dependence on the interest rate"?
b) "The demand for money from assets is in the opposite dependence on the value of nominal GDP"? Explain.
8. There is a fairly high level of inflation in the country. It is necessary to quickly take measures and slow down inflationary processes. What will the Central Bank be taken in this situation? What directions of credit and monetary policy will be preferred?
9. How to distinguish inflation from hyperinflation? Among the economists there is a funny joke about the way of distinguishing these concepts: for example, you, in the conditions of the Greater rates of inflation, received a salary - a huge bunch paper moneywhich placed in a large basket. On the way home, you went to the phone-machine to call familiar, and the basket with money was left on the asphalt. If after a conversation, coming out of the cab, you found an empty basket, then this is just inflation. And if all your pile of money is lying on the asphalt, but stole a basket, then it is hyperinflation! Could you give a scientific comment of this joke in terms of economic theory?
10. What is preceded by the deployment of inflationary processes:
a) the growth of money supply precedes price increases;
b) Rising prices precedes the growth of the money supply.
(Tip: Once again, analyze the mechanism of inflation and inflation of costs).
11. Famous French economist L. The Council in his book "Equilibrium and Economic Growth" wrote: "As often they say, inflation is primarily faith in inflation." Do you agree with this statement? And here Vera and, in general, psychological aspects when explaining economic categories?
12. Some economists emphasize that the main reason for inflation is political. So, M. Dambrovsky, former in 1989-1990. First Deputy Ministers of Finance Finish, claimed: "Any inflation primarily has political roots." Similar views were expressed by such economists as F. Hayek, Ya. Kornai, etc. Do you agree with this statement? With any answer, argue it.
13. Inflation indicates a violation of the sustainability of money circulation, which occurs if the amount of money supply significantly exceeds the amount of demand for them. Failure to comply with the necessary equality of money flows and goods occurs, as a rule, not spontaneously or "automatically", but on someone's deliberate economic activity both within the country and in the international arena. Therefore, you can ask for a question about whose fault has been issued in an excessive amount of money. What is your opinion on this issue?
14. When considering economic growth in the enterprise, it was revealed that the private owner of the capital to strive through the accumulation (expansion of production) to achieve maximum increase in profits. However, if such a goal becomes the main goal of the nation, then it is obviously a relatively small part of society (approximately 10-15% of the adult population of the country) at the expense of the rest. As a result, the social bundle of society increases, which is fraught with dangerous conflicts between different income level by layers. Obviously, the optimal (best) goal of economic growth is to increase the life level of the entire population.
a) What is the source of economic growth of the whole nation?
b) what economic indicator Most of all matches the optimal goal of nationwide economic growth?
15. Since the beginning of the XIX century. The capitalist economy in all countries was not moving along a smooth road. One of the segments of such a road brightly and truthfully depicted the American writer John Steinbeck (1902-1968) in the novel "Breaks of Angel" (1939): "Oranges with whole cars refer to Earth. People go for a few miles to pick up the thrown fruit, but it is completely unacceptable! Who will pay for oranges of 20 cents per dozen, if you can go beyond the city and get them for nothing? And the orange mountains are poured by kerosene from the hose, and those who do it hate themselves for such a crime, hate people who come to pick fruit. Millions of hungry need fruit, and the golden mountains watered kerosene. "
a) What segment of the development of the economy wrote J. Steinbeck?
b) How is the trajectory of economic activity as a whole?
16. What forms of unemployment includes the following manifestations:
a) dismissal from work due to childcare;
b) dismissal during the crisis of overproduction;
c) dismissal in connection with the beginning of study;
d) dismissing miners due to the development of the use of alternative energy sources?
17. Does the concept of complete employment mean the absolute lack of unemployed?
18. In the second half of the 20th century, the reasons for unemployment are primarily associated with the scientific and technological revolution. Increased changes in this regard played market conditions Purchase and sale of labor. What do you think specific types of unemployment are characteristic of recent decades?
19. The essence of the task of ensuring the employment of the working population is to achieve equilibrium the number of economically active population and the number of jobs necessary for it. It is important to ensure the compliance of the profession of workers and specialization of jobs and types of technological operations. In the context of the modern market economy, the task of employment of people is performed by both enterprises and the state.
List practical measures taken by the state in the exercise of their employment policies.
20. Cash treatment may be sustainable in practice at two actually reached conditions:
a) subject to equivalence (equivalence) of goods (services) and money streams (since no equivalence equality of these flows is unattainable);
b) with a reliable mechanism of balance (balance) of the value of goods and money (the mechanism that acts as it were, when the cash circulation is devoting to the equilibrium state).
Was there a period in the history of commodity and market relations when two specified conditions were respected?
21. Picture economic growth on the schedule using the production capacity curve.
Tasks
1. The population is 100 million people., 24 million people. - Children under 16, as well as people in lengthy isolation (in psychiatric hospitals, in correctional institutions, etc.); 30 million people dropped out of the workforce; 4 million 600 thousand people. - unemployed; 1 million people - Workers employed part-time and job seekers. Using these statistical data, calculate:
a) the magnitude of the labor force; b) the unemployment rate.
2. The natural level of unemployment in the current year is 6%, and the actual - 10%.
a) Determine the value of the relative lag of the actual GDP on the potential, provided that the GDP sensitivity coefficient to the dynamics of cyclic unemployment is 2.
b) If the actual volume of release in the same year amounted to 600 billion dollars, what are the loss of GDP caused by cyclic unemployment?
3. There is also the following information: the number of employed 85 million people, the number of unemployed 15 million people.
a) Calculate the unemployment rate.
b) a month later from 85 million people who had work were dismissed 0.5 million people; 1 million people from among the officially registered unemployed ceased work searches. Determine what now: (1) the number of employed, (2) the number of unemployed and (3) the unemployment rate.
4. Using the OUCEN law, calculate the value of GDP's loss in the actual level of unemployment 9.4%, the actual production volume of 585.3 billion rubles, provided that the natural level of unemployment is equal to 4% and the sensitivity coefficient of GDP dynamics to the dynamics of cyclic unemployment is equal to 3.
5. Calculate the actual unemployment rate if the actual volume of GDP is 585.3 billion dollars, potential GDP - $ 771.4 billion, the natural unemployment rate is 4.5%, and the sensitivity coefficient of GDP dynamics to the dynamics of cyclic unemployment - 3.5.
6. The economy is described by the following data: the natural unemployment rate is 6%, the expected level of inflation is 3%, the relative deviation of real GDP from a potential less than zero. External price shocks are missing. What is the actual inflation rate?
7. Suppose in the economy of the country the unemployed is the average every tenth citizen, and not part of the workforce - every sixth. Determine the unemployment rate.
Depending on the factors generating inflation, they are talking about "inflation of demand" and "cost inflation".
Factors affecting "inflation of demand" are viewed through the prism of the IS-LM-BP model, which allows you to detail the impact of changing specific variables in the market of money and the market of goods. Over demand caused by growth public spending (Fiscal expansion), money supply (monetary expansion), etc. Stimulates price increases. The primary factor forming steady demand is an increase in total demand to a level close to complete employment or superior to it.
At the aggregate offer decisive effects wages. As a rule, its level is established in labor agreements, and it affects the growth rate of unemployment and future inflation, regarding which, during negotiations, there are certain expectations. First of all, the change wages It is associated with the unemployment rate inversely proportional to the dependence. If unemployment is higher than a natural level, the nominal wages will grow with the pace smaller than the rate of expected inflation. If unemployment is lower than a natural level, then the nominal wages will grow higher than the rates of expected inflation. The Phillips curve determines the relationship between the rate of changes in the nominal wage and the expected level of inflation, as well as the rate of unemployment growth and its natural level.
According to the dynamic Keynesian model, the nominal wages are established for a certain period of employment agreements, but it changes between the period depending on the level of unemployment and inflation expectations. Modern cumulative demand through the impact on the change in wage is affected not only on the current, but also on future production volumes and prices. In cases where the nominal wages increases in accordance with the articles of the Labor Agreement, attempts to stabilize prices are likely to lead to losses in the form of a decrease in the production and growth of unemployment. If the wage growth is predetermined by the agreements, it is possible to go on such an increase in the total demand, which is necessary to ensure complete employment. Such a policy of maintaining complete employment by increasing the money supply is known as the monetary regulatory policy.
In Pain initial form The Phillips curve corresponded to a simple reverse relationship between unemployment and changes in the nominal wage. This dependence relatively well described the situation in the United States in the conditions of stable economic development in the 60s, but ceased to be adequate economic realities when to the beginning of the 70s. Inflation began to grow noticeably. Since empirical data has no longer confirmed this dependence, the phillips curve was transformed in such a way that it began to reflect the relationship between changes in the nominal wage, on the one hand, and not only unemployment rate, but also inflationary expectations on the other.
The choice between inflation and unemployment depends on the specific mechanisms that are used by economic entities for the formation of inflation expectations. In the system of adaptive expectations, subjects form their ideas about future inflation, based on the rates of inflation in the past.
The inflationary mechanism has a temporary lag between the initial increase in demand and increase in price level. Lag approvals.
Analysis of links between inflation and unemployment was criticized by supporters of the concept of rational expectations. They doubted that inflationary expectations were determined using spontaneously operating and processed mechanisms, such as adaptive expectations. They argued that the subjects form inflationary expectations based on all available information and their ideas about the future economic Policy. If inflationary expectations come from rational expectations, that is, expectations facing the future, the unemployment inflation dilemma can even stop exist even in the short term.
The main cause of inflation in the twentieth century is the deficit state budget. Analysis of coating directions budget deficit Allows you to establish a direct link between internal borrowing, balance balance, exchange rate and, according to the influence of the latter on inflation.
Key terms and concepts
- Inflation demand
- Inflation costs
- Stagflation
- Short-term curve Phillips.
- Long-term curve Phillips.
- Speculative attack
- Monetary expansion
- Fiscal expansion
- Dynamic cumulative demand
- Dynamic coordination
- Inertial inflation
- Expected inflation
- Rational expectations
- Adaptive expectations
Tasks and exercises
1. And in the inflation of demand, and in case of cost inflation, there is an increase in the overall level of prices in the country. There is any way to distinguish between these two types of inflation? What type of inflation, in your opinion, is characteristic of the Russian economy in 1992-1993?
2. What does it precede with the deployment of inflation processes: 1) the growth of money supply precedes price growth? 2) price increase - growth of money supply? (Tip: Once again, analyze the mechanism of inflation and inflation of costs).
3. In which case, the growth P can overtake the growth of m?
4. The figure shows the Phillips curve: level 
price
0 Unemployment
Fig. one
What is a "mirror reflection" of this curve, if you use a dotted line as an axis of symmetry?
5. Slide along the Phillips curve means an alternative choice between inflation and unemployment. And is it possible using this curve (see fig. In the ass. 4) Show simultaneous price increase and unemployment. What is the situation in the economy?
6. And in theory 1) adaptive expectations, and in theory 2) of rational expectations, the graphically, the Phillips curve is shifted in the "northeast" direction (Fig. 2), demonstrating the stability of the "natural level" unemployment (at point A), despite the rising price level. What is the difference in the interpretation of the ineffectiveness of the macroeconomic policy to stimulate the total demand between these two theoretical concepts? 
What does the movement of the economy from the point A1 to the point B1? From point B1 to point A2? From point A2 to point B2, etc.?
What is the economic meaning of these shifts?
7. Is it possible to graphically illustrate the inflation costs with the help of the "Keynesian Cross" model?
8. The mechanism of spiral "salary-price" is widely known. And what does the wage salary spiral mean? Can you give examples from this helix from russian economy 1992-1993?
As reflected inflation (galopulating) and especially - hyperinflation - on the temporary duration of the following processes:
a) the period for which economic transactions are concluded (increases? decreases?);
b) the period for which loans and mortgages are provided (increases? decreases?);
c) the term to which collective agreements are concluded (increases? decreases?).
9. Build the dynamic function of aggregate demand based on the following data on the form of macroeconomic relationships and closed economic system. Function consumption: C \u003d 200 + 0.75 (y - T). Investment function: i \u003d 200 - 25g. Rated money supply in the economy: MS \u003d 100; Demand for money: L \u003d (y - 100i) p; The state budget is balanced: G \u003d T \u003d 100.
10. Determine the type of dynamic curve of the total demand in the first period, if it is known that the level of price zero period P0 \u003d 1, and the price change does not affect purchasing power Money in circulation in the previous period.
11. Describe how the price level changes in the situations listed below; Indicate that it will cause a shift in the price level - the shocks of the total demand or the cumulative supply - and whether this displacement is constant or temporary:
a) due to bad weather, the harvest this year will be significantly lower than usual;
b) the country is preparing for war;
c) the government increases construction costs in the public sector;
d) trade unions have achieved a 20% increase in wages.
12. Discuss the reasons for which the nominal wages almost does not change. How is this due to the terms of salary agreements?
13. For example, this year many trade unions are negotiating on new labor agreements:
a) How can the current level of unemployment affect their positions at the negotiations?
b) What is the importance of salary negotiations for future inflation?
c) If trade unions are able to achieve a significant increase in the future nominal wage, which policy should adhere to the government to ensure complete employment? What price does he have to pay for it?
14. Imagine the economy in which unemployment is at a natural level, the trade unions expect that next year inflation will be 5%, and they will be able to increase the nominal wage next year on the same 5%. How will the real salaries change "the unemployment rate and production rate if actual inflation will be 5% next year? What will happen if it is higher or below 5%?
15. Suppose people expect that next year inflation will be the same as in the past. The government is constantly seeking to reduce unemployment to its natural level:
a) What policies should the government be held to achieve this goal? What are the ways to change inflation in the future?
b) What should be the inflationary expectations of the population so that inflation is not accelerated? Do you consider reasonable to assume that people will behave in this way? Explain the answer.
16. Think of how the circumstances below will affect the damage ratio and the amount of inertia inflation in the country, if:
a) long-term labor agreements prevail in the economy;
b) People adjust their inflation expectations very quickly;
c) the government has a reputation of the authority that is not able to reduce its costs;
d) People are oriented more rational, and not for adaptive expectations.
17. Consider the main differences between rational and adaptive expectations. How are those and others affect the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies?
18. Countries A and I are identical in all aspects, except for one: in the country and nominal wages are indexed based on the level of inflation of the previous period, and in this country is not being done. What country is the fight against inflation cost more? Does your answer depends on how people form their inflation expectations?
19. Analyze the conditions under which the fixed exchange cubc should be an effective tool for controlling inflation.
20. Is it possible to use the exchange rate as the only means of regulating inflation? What is the risk of using the exchange rate fixation as a tool for regulating inflation while increasing government spending?
21. Stagflation is characterized by:
but) permanent growth Consumer basket prices;
b) rising prices, reduction in production and high unemployment;
c) the deficit of goods and services.
22. What rates of inflation do you expect this year? To what extent your expectations are due to the experience of the previous year?
Match Terms and Definitions
Terms:
but. Phillips curve
b. Stagflation
in. Shock sentences
inflationary expectations
d. Natural Level Hypothesis
e. Theory of adaptive expectations
g. Short-term Cumulative Curve
s. Long-term Cumulative Curve
and. New classical theory
k. Inflation of excess demand
l. Inflation costs of production
m. Market policy
n. Revenue policy
about. Theory of economics offers
p. La Fur curve
r. Tax "Wedge"
from. Landmarks for wages and prices
Definitions:
1. Concept, supporters of which argue that people are in their expectations regarding the upcoming trends in economic Development They are guided by the past and real experience and change their expectations only as these trends are gaining full force.
2. Government policy, the purpose of which is to weaken the power of trade unions and major firms on the market, change or eliminate imbalances in the labor market.
3. The curve showing the relationship between the unemployment level (on the abscissa axis) and the annual growth rate of prices (on the ordinate axis).
4. Inflation caused by an increase in aggregate demand.
5. The curve showing the link between tax rates and the volume of tax revenues by which the tax rate is detected (from zero to 100%), and allowing maximizing the amount of these tax revenues.
6. An integral part of the modern macroeconomic theory using the concepts of "costs" and "total proposal" to explain inflation and unemployment.
7. Inflation accompanied by stagnation of production and high unemployment.
8. The curve of the cumulative supply in the period during which prices for resources (especially nominal wages) react directly to the change in the overall price level.
9. Inflation caused by the reduction of the total proposal as a result of the increase in wages and prices for raw materials, accompanied by a decrease in the real volume of production and employment.
10. A sharp change in the price level for certain groups of goods that shifts the curve of the cumulative supply to the left and contributes to the simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment.
11. The hypothesis of the long-term stability of the economy under the "natural" level of unemployment. Her supporters (monetarists) suggest that at such a level of unemployment, the long-term curve of the Phillips turns out to be in a vertical position.
12. Theory, which believes that unforeseen changes in price changes are able to identify macroeconomic instability in the short term. In the long term, in their opinion, the economy retains stability at the production level, which provides full-time employment due to price flexibility and salary.
13. The assumptions of employees, firms, consumers that in the future will arise high inflation.
14. Government policy, the purpose of which is the impact on the dynamics of individual monetary incomes and prices of goods and services.
15. Such taxes like indirect taxes On business and taxes on the wage foundation, which include manufacturers to production costs and are included in the price of products produced.
16. The curve of the cumulative supply in the period during which prices for resources (in particular the nominal wages) remain constant, and the total price level does not change.
Economy and business Views: 8176.The state's money supply is the amount of money available to consumers by consumers of a single country. In Russia, the money appeal is regulated by the Central Bank. Increased money supply entails a decrease in interest rates, which, in turn, makes bank loans, consequently, a greater amount of money, more accessible to the population.
Central bank increases the money mass by purchasing state valuable papers, influencing more money in banking system. An increase in the amount of money supply reduces the cost of the Russian ruble, but increases the amount of money that banks can issue in the form of loans to the population. When banks appear more money to issue loans, they reduce interest rates by consumers paying loans they have received, and this leads to an increase in consumer spending, because Borrowed money becomes more affordable for them. When the country has been experiencing a slowdown in the economy, the government increases the money supply to push the population to commit more purchases and thereby improve the economic situation.
Increased money supply may have a negative economical effect. It entails the reduction of the ruble, which makes imported goods more expensive, and domestic goods for sale abroad cheaper. With the close relationship between different states in the global economy, this phenomenon can spread to other countries and affect their economy. The cost of metal, cars and building materials may increase. As a result, due to the growth of the value of materials and construction work, prices for commercial and residential real estate may also increase. But, at the same time, the increase in money supply contributes to the increased issuance by banks with loans to the population, and, accordingly, the receipt of additional money by citizens is significantly facilitated.
Successful management of the global economy requires an effective monetary policy. Increasing the money supply, this is one of the many options for regulating the economy available to the government of the country. In addition, the government can change tax rates, customs duties, the norms of mandatory bank reserves, a key interest rate, etc.
Too much increase in money supply can lead to inflation, and the cost of the ruble will decrease in relation to the currencies of other countries. Such development of events leads to the reduction of domestic products for foreign consumers and the appreciation for their citizens.
Over the years, the Central Bank and the Russian government monitors the amount of money supply. This indicator has a direct impact on the growth of the economy and the inner gross product (
macroeconomic monetary reform
Analysis of the main dynamics macroeconomic indicators Over the past six years of reforms (with assessing the level of welfare), it shows that it is impossible to ensure economic growth without solving the problem of compliance with the volume of money in the needs of the economy. At the same time, it is necessary to clearly justify how much money will need to ensure economic growth. At first glance, it is quite simple, because to ensure intensive money balance of money in circulation should be as much as all goods and services are. But it is here that the main paradox arises. If you increase the money supply in proportion corresponding to the rates of price increases. That economic mechanism will quickly enter the hyperinflation spiral. If you do not add money into circulation. That low-inflation will be a long and deep decline in production.
Since within recent years Increased differences on the achievement of the result (in which the decline was slowed down due to emissions, and inflation was reduced due to the restriction of money supply, the decline continued and the decline and extension of the money supply. All this led to the price scale changed about 10 thousand Once it is obvious that the stagflation process is increasing when the monetary mass increases in the conditions of a decline in production, will continue until it is not limited to the rise in prices for monopolist manufacturers. Either a competitive environment is not formed. Since it will take no one decade to create a competitive environment, then to stop the decline in production in the absence of inflation only possible solution It is the conduct of an effective pricing policy that excludes arbitrary price increase in sectors with monopolized production. However, even if prices are monitored, how to calculate the required amount of money supply. providing economic growth? It is known that in 1996 and the first half of 1997, the monetary mass grew somewhat faster than inflation rates. Nevertheless, over the past time, no main problems could be solved: non-payment, liquidation (or at least reduction) of the budget deficit and public debt, salary debt, and most importantly, achieve at least a small economic growth. The economy is still lacking money. Money mass. As you know, it is customary to divide into several aggregates M0 - Cash Money. M1 - M0 plus bills to demand. M2 - M1 plus accounts on urgent deposits. At the same time, as a rule, the aggregate M2 is taken as a basis in the calculations. But in essence, the aggregates M1 and M2 are nothing more than the banking recording of the M0 aggregate, since the money on the account (M1 and M2) will appear only after the organization or a particular person will put them in the account. Suppose that 100 trillion rubles turns in the country. cash, and the entire population of the country, for example, 100 million people decided in January from medium salary At 1 million to put on demand for 100 thousand rubles. Obviously, it will spend after this only 900 thousand rubles. But there will be 10 trillion on the account. rubles, i.e. M1 aggregate will be 10 trillion. rub. If the population will postpone 200 thousand in 200 thousand rubles per accounts, by the end of the year the M2 monetary unit will be about 340 trillion. rub.; 200 thousand rubles, postponed 100 million people for 12 months plus 100 trillion. rub. Cash. But this does not mean that the money in circulation will become more - they will remain only 100 trillion rubles. Therefore, in the calculations of the required amount of money supply, apparently. It is not necessary to navigate the M2 unit, but on the indicator of MO. M1 and M2 units simply re-take into account in different shapes alone and the same cash - in the amount of 100 trillion pub. Therefore, although it is believed that the rate of money in different periods Increases or decreases. In fact, the speed of turnover has no arbitrary nature, money and always and everywhere move with a strictly defined and quite given speed. Based on the fact that in order to maintain commodity balance, the annual value of the gross domestic product must correspond to the amount of money supply, which for the year performs several turns. We must take into account only the amount of cash issued in circulation.
Thus, to solve the problem of termination of the decline in production and ensuring economic growth is to provide adequate gDP level The volume of money supply is therefore, by compliance with the money masses, many today's problems can be solved, including the growth of GDP, but in the conditions of uncontrollably growing free prices, which react to changes in the amount of money supply in circulation (in the absence of serious competition). Measure to streamline the speed of money circulation will give only a short-term effect.
In fact. Today there are three development options.
If free prices are preserved in all sectors, then with a further tight limitation of the money supply (contributing to the decline in inflation) in the economy, a number of years will continue the decline in production, although less pace, that is, attempts to restrain inflation will further reduce the volume of GDP.
If at low prices will be taken to the financial incentive of the economy, then with real growth of GDP we will be for some time (before the appearance of a highly competitive environment) to live with sufficiently high inflation
If you limit the prices of production of monopolist manufacturers and add cash to the level of the cumulative price of all goods and services, this measure due to the optimal increase in efficiency not only can be separated by non-payment, but also will allow enterprises to independently provide production cycles Without expensive loans of commercial banks, which will automatically reduce the interest rate that is precisely the most preferable for the current period of development, since it solves two contradictory tasks at the same time: a decrease in inflation and production growth
So, how to overcome the decline and inflation, it is possible only by limiting free prices in all sectors with monopolized production. At the same time adding so much money to the economy (taking into account the turnover), all goods and services are worth at current prices.
No. 1. Give examples of non-inflation price increases.
# 2. What is the depressed inflation? What do you see the meaning of the epithet "depressed"? How would you explain to ordinary people who have not studied the economic theory and nostalgically affecting the seasons of the sausage for 2 rubles. 90 cop. For kilograms, the causes of the "Brezhnevskaya" price stability?
# 3. In economic theory, there is a "rule of value 70", which allows you to determine how many years will be doubted the price level in the country at a given annual price increase. But why is it "rule of size 70", and not the "rule of 100"? After all, doubling means the rise in prices by 100 \\%, and not on
No. 4. What are you seeing the differences between moderate, galloping and hyperinflation? What are the criteria for their distinction? What is the criterion of hyperinflation on Kegen?
No. 5. How to distinguish inflation from hyperinflation? Among the economists there is a funny joke about the way of distinguishing these concepts: for example, you, in the conditions of the All-term rates of inflation, received a salary - a huge bunch of paper money, which was placed in a large basket. On the way home, you went to the phone-machine to call familiar, and the basket with money was left on the asphalt. If after a conversation, coming out of the cab, you found an empty basket, then this is just inflation. And if all your pile of money is lying on the asphalt, but stole a basket, then it is hyperinflation! Could you give a scientific comment of this joke from the point of view of economic theory?
J№ b. Whether the effect of peg acts in the conditions of loss of confidence in the government and conducted by it credit-money policy? Argument your answer.
No. 7. How would you show graphically inflation of the demand and inflation costs using the JSC and Curveau curve? Which way, these curves are shifted to the above-mentioned inflation types?
No. 8. What is preceded by the deployment of inflationary processes:
a) the growth of money supply precedes price growth
b) the rise in prices is preceded by the growth of money supply
(Tip: Once again, analyze the mechanism of inflation of demand and inflation costs),
No. 9. In fact, the rate of price increases (P) can overtake the growth rate of the money supply
№ If the nominal offer of money increased by 7 \\%, the price level increased by 5 \\%, the real release increased by 4 \\%, how much did the rate of money circulation changed?
No. 11. Unforeseen inflation favors: a) lenders;
b) debtors;
c) faces with fixed income;
d) profit recipients;
e) prone to risk speculators.
Name the right answers.
No. 12. Which of the following options is correct and why:
a) with an increase in the level of inflation to the coefficient of monetization
b) with increasing inflation rate, the monetization coefficient decreases;
c) there is no connection between the level of inflation and
the coefficient of monetization.
No. 13. After the liberalization of prices in 1992, a sharp reduction in real cash reserves (real cash balances) occurred in Russia. In these circumstances, the director of many state-owned enterprises argued that the monetary mass should be increased after price increases in order to restore the former ratio of M / R. What would be the consequences of the implementation of this measure in practice?
14. With raising inflation levels:
a) costs of storage of money as an asset decrease;
b) costs of storage of money as an asset increase.
Select the correct answers and argue your choice.
No. 15. And in the inflation of demand, and in cost inflation, there is an increase in the overall level of prices in the country:
a) Is there any way to distinguish these
double-disconse inflation?
b) at what annual rates of inflation can generally be distinguished between the inflation of demand and inflation costs?
c) which of the specified types of inflation, in your opinion
characterized for Russian inflation 1992-1996?
No. 16. What factors can shift the AS curve to a position in which there will be an increase in price level and reducing the real volume of production (the so-called "sucks of the sentence")? Can you give examples of "Suggestions of the Offer" in the Russian economy during 1992-1996?
No. 17. The famous French economist L. The Council in his book "Equilibrium and Economic Growth" wrote: "As often they say, inflation is primarily faith in inflation." Do you agree with this statement? And here faith and, in general, psychological aspects when explaining economic categories?
No. 18. The actual data at the end of the XLX - the beginning of the 20th century, as noted by N. Muck, the author of the famous textbook "Macroeconomics", show that the high rated interest rates (/) did not accommodate the high rates of inflation (/). Discuss or not these facts are the famous Fisher effect? Argument your answer.
No. 19. What the impact on the real income of the following persons will be impaired annual inflation:
pensioner;
working oil refining plant, trade union member;
student;
a private dentist doctor.
No. 20. What government events, in your opinion, can reduce the inflationary expectations of the population?
No. 21. Based on the following data, calculate the inflation tax (IT): the rate of inflation is 40 \\% per year; Calcution is 5 billion rubles; Deposits -15 billion rubles. Nominal interest rate - 30 \\% per annum.
Number 22. The volume of deposits is 3 times higher than the amount of cash when money massequal to 4000 den. units. Calculate the amount of inflation tax, the rate of inflation is 20 \\% per year, and the nominal percentage of percent per annum?
23. What will look like a "Laffer Curve for Inflation", if as tax rate will appear the tempo of inflation, and as a taxable base is the demand for real cash reserves, i.e.
No. 24. Under what conditions the sieruge (SE) and inflation tax (IT) coincide?
No. 25. Under what circumstances the government can finance (at least in a short time interval) of the state budget deficit with the help of a senseport (SE) exceeding the inflation tax (IT)?
Number 26. The value of inflation tax depends on:
a) rates of progressive taxation of physical feasibility;
b) the inflation rate;
c) the magnitude of the population's demand for real cash balances;
d) the growth rate of real GDP.
№ 27. Name the possible ways to evade the payment of inflation tax.
No. 28. Do you have, in your opinion, have any macroeconomic policy tools that would help avoid the impact of the "Tanzi-Oliver's effect"?
No. 29. The country has the following taxation scale of income:
For the current period, the price level and nominal incomes rose twice. Calculate the total value income tax with three individualswho had the following nominal revenues: 20, 40 and 60 thousand dollars.
a) prior to raising the price level;
b) after the growth of the price level.
What conclusions can you do by comparing two calculated amounts?
No. 30. The previously mentioned French economist L. The Council noted: "Hope to slow down inflation, limited by blocking prices, is as useless, as well as to stop the temperature rise in the patient, blocking the thermometer." Do you agree with this statement, regardless of what type of inflation is it possible (inflation of demand or inflation costs)?
No. 31. Which of the methods of financing the state budget deficit is more intelligent:
a) loans of the Ministry of Finance at the Central Bank or
b) Loans of the same ministry on a private credit market?
To which consequences known to you, or effects lead
specified types of loans?
32. Many economists believe that modern market economy In principle, inflationary, tying it with three types of monopolism:
state monopoly on the issue of money;
monopolism of pricing firms;
trade union monopolism in the field of wage rates.
Is it possible to eliminate these three types of monopolism to successfully combat inflation?
Number 33. Some economists emphasize that the most main reason Inflation - political. So, M. Dambrovsky, who was in 1989-1990, First Deputy Finance Ministers of Poland, argued: "Any inflation primarily has political roots." Similar views were expressed by such economists as F. Hayek, Ya. Kornai, etc. Do you agree with this statement? With any answer, argue it.
No. 34. Slipping along a short-term curve of the Phillips means an alternative choice between inflation and unemployment. Is it possible with this curve graphically showing the simultaneous growth of the overall level of prices and unemployment? What is the situation in the economy?
No. 35. Picture a graphically long-term phillip-sa curve. What conditions it can shift:
b) right?
No. 36. Under what circumstances of the Filip-Ca curve can have a positive slope, unlike its traditional image?
№ 37. If the actual and expected rate of inflation, at any level, coincide, what will be the configuration of the Phillips curve?
No. 38. The natural level of unemployment meets the concept:
a) potential GDP;
b) real GDP;
c) "non-accelerating inflation level unemployment" (pop
accelerating Inflation Rateissemployment, Nairu);
d) cyclic unemployment.
Name the right response options.
No. 39. What conditions are necessary for the implementation of the so-called "free" liquidation of inflation in Lucas, i.e., not entailing such social costs as the growth of unemployment?
No. 40. Give a graphic image of a movement sequence with the most "high" to the most "low" short-term curve of the Phillips in the conditions of the anti-inflationary policy of the government (taking into account the concept of aaatable inflation expectations).
No. 41. "The shorter the mixing intervals, the less the country's population suffers from inflation." Your comment?
No. 42. As reflected galopulating inflation on the temporary duration of the following contracts:
a) the period for which contracts for the supply of goods are concluded;
b) the deadline for which loans and loans are provided and repaid
mortgages;
c) the term to which collective agreements are concluded
between trade unions and employers?
No. 43. How does inflation reflect and especially hyperinflation on the most important price function - to be an objective information signal?
No. 44. Many economists emphasize that there is no economic output from hyperinflation. Do you agree with this statement?
№ 45. What do you see the conflict of goals when conducting anti-inflation policy by the government Russian Federation?
Answers to the topic 23.
№ 1. Rising prices in the phase of cyclic lifting; Rising prices due to an indigestive disaster, etc.
# 2. It is manifested in the shortage of goods, queues, worsening the quality of goods. "Depressed" means that prices are held administratively on the same, as a rule, understated (compared to the equilibrium) level. On the "black" price market is significantly higher than in public trade. The stability of prices in the stagnation era was maintained at the expense of subsidies from the state budget, the relative well-being with food was observed only in large industrial centers.
No. 3. When calculating the growth rates, the method is not easy, but complex interest.
№ 4. Moderate - up to year; Galopulating - from 10 \\% to 100 \\% per year; Over the specified numbers, as a rule, is indicated by the term "very high inflation". Criterion of hyperinflation on kei-gene - 50 \\% per month. In general, the line between the galloping and hyperinflation "to fool" is very difficult. The most important sign of inflation is a catastrophic flight of money (see Task No. 5).
5. This anecdote emphasizes characteristic sign hyperinflation - complete loss of confidence in the national monetary unit; The desire of economic agents to keep their wealth in the form of real estate, long-term goods, in solid foreign currency.
No. 6. No, it does not work. This effect could have been hypothetically show only in the absence of inflation expectations. Otherwise the hope of the population to reduce the total level of prices is practically disappeared, the desire for materialization is rich in
b. commodity form, there is a pressure of demand in the market of goods towards increasing prices. №7.
a) - inflation of demand b) - cost inflation
№ 8. A) in inflation of demand; b) - when inflation costs.
No. 9. In the case of much more than the increase in M, accelerating the circulation of money, i.e. V.
No. 10. Formula is used: \\% change + \\% change v- \\% change P + \\% change Q. Consequently, the rate of money circulation has changed by 2 \\%.
№ И.b), d), e).
No. option b). Increasing the level of inflation leads to a decrease in demand for real cash balances (real cash reserves), which is expressed in reducing the coefficient of monetization.
No. 13. With the initial (to the liberalization of prices), the level of real cash reserves, i.e. m / p, excess demands existed in Russia. Monetary pumping in the desire to restore the former ratio of M / P would lead to the restoration of the problem of over demand, and countless deficits.
14. Option b): costs of storage of money as an asset increase due to their impairment due to inflation.
No. 15. (a) Changes in the overall level of prices and the level of unemployment in different directions - demand inflation; their change in the same direction - cost inflation;
b) only with moderate inflation;
c) In these years, there was galloping inflation in Russia, which is based on monetary causes.
No. 16. An increase in costs per unit of products that may be associated with the rise in price of raw materials and, especially, energy carriers; reduction of labor productivity; appreciation of imports; The growth of the tax burden, etc. In Russia, all factors mentioned above were pronounced in these years.
expectations in the deployment of inflationary processes; They attach inflation self-sustaining nature and make it difficult to carry out anti-inflation policy.
No. 18. With the expected inflation, the nominal interest rate changes in such a way that the previous real interest rate remains. But in the XTX century, economic agents have come across unexpected, or impeverate inflation. Thus, if the Fisher's effect is represented by the equation r \u003d i - if (expected inflation), then, obviously, the specified facts do not refute the Fisher's effect.
No. 19. The pensioner will face a decrease in its real income if its pension is not indexed; A similar answer is for the worker, however, if the content of the contract is laid on the contract, its real salary may depreciate not as much as a pensioner; Similarly to the student. The problem is that we are talking about unexpected inflation, therefore, the possibility of indexation is not envisaged. In contrast to the cases considered, the dentist can raise the prices for their services to compensate for the impairment of their real income.
No. 20. The use of any of the nominal "anchors" -
currency, monetary, salary. In all these cases, they will be effective if the government enjoys trust in economic agents.
№21. The calculation is based on the formula: IT-Yachs + /) x (/<)0,4х5 + 15(0,4-0,3)= 2 + 1,5 = 3,5щрд.
№ 22. Money mass equal to 4000 den. units, consists of C + D, which based on the conditions of tasks, corresponds to 1000 + 3000; The calculation is carried out according to the formula (see Answer No. 21), which will be 260 den. units.
№23.
No. 24. They coincide if economic agents support the continued value of their real cash reserves, i.e. m / p.
No. 25. SE may be greater than / 7 "in the conditions of accelerating inflation. At the same time, economic entities can be mistaken in their forecasts regarding the rates of inflation, in this case, to underestimate them. Then the population can maintain a higher level of its real cash in stock compared with the situation in which it could accurately appreciate the tempo of inflation. Thus, the government can get a sense product greater than inflation tax, at some time interval.
№ 26. Points b) and c).
No. 27. Buying real estate, antiques, converting money into a solid currency, etc.
No. 28. The rate of inflation does not exceed a few percent per year, the compensation of the effect of Tanzi-Oliver can be carried out using a minor change of tax rates; In Russia in 1992-1993 The government, seeking to avoid the negative impact of this effect, resorted to an increase in the frequency of advance payment of taxes (2-3 times a month for large enterprises on income tax and added value); Installed the priority of payment of income tax amounts compared to other payments.
№ 29. Calculate the total tax payments to raising the price level;
20x0.1 + 40x0.2 + 60x0.3 \u003d 28 million rubles.
After raising prices and doubling the nominal income:
40 x 0.2 + 80 x 0.3 +120 x 0.3 \u003d 68 million rubles. It can be concluded that as a result of inflation, when the nominal revenues of the second and third parties fall under a higher tax rate, the state increased the amount of tax fees received by 2.3 times.
Since high inflation has primarily monetary causes and acts as demand inflation, the struggle against it is ineffective and only enhances the imbalances of the economy; With moderate inflation rates, if its cause is the cost inflation caused by the shocks of the aggregate supply, the control over prices and the salary may be effective at the short-term interval (subject to confidence in the government).
Method A) - there is a monetization of public debt, clearly leading to inflation of demand, and the inflationary effect with this method of financing is manifested in a fairly short period of time (in Russia, in particular, lag between monetary emissions and increase price - from 3 to 6 months in 1992-1996); The method b) - leads to the effect of displacement. In the short term, it is considered a way to finance the state budget deficit. But the growth rate growth inhibits the investment process in the private sector, and this may subsequently reduce the aggregate proposal that
will be wrapped with an imbalance between cumulative demand and cumulative
offer and increasing the overall level of prices.
№ 32. Cancel the monopoly of the state to issue money (idea
F. On the money), prohibit trade unions, to establish the "ceilings" of prices and salaries - the implementation of all these events in modern market economy is hardly possible. Therefore, we can talk, firstly, about the responsible credit and monetary policy of the Central Bank of banks, secondly, on finding reasonable compromises during trade union negotiations with entrepreneurs, thirdly, about effective antimonopoly legislation.
No. 33. It is possible to arbitrate that inflation takes place of all political roots, but it is impossible to deny the enormous importance of the political factor in the development of modern (especially high chronic) inflation. And is associated with various groups, "informing" decisions about increasing government spending in their favor; Macroeconomic populism of the legislative and executive authorities, when in pursuit of votes to the votes of voter accepts intelligent economic decisions.
№ 34. Yes, possibly. It is necessary to shift the "right-up" short-term curve of the Phillips; This is the phenomenon of stagnation. №35.
І. J. Chris. 23.3.
The long-term curve of the Phillips has the form of a vertical line emanating from the point on the abscissa axis corresponding to the natural level of unemployment (£ /), respectively, the reduction of the g / will lead to the displacement of this curve to the left, and the increase is right.
No. 36. The positive slope of the long-term curve of the Phillips, according to Friedmen, is possible in the conditions called Slotimia, that is, the coexistence of growing unemployment and growing inflation. The reasons for it in the unpredictable nature of inflation, when sharp fluctuations in the annual inflation rate enhance the elements
uncertainty at the conclusion of transactions and deflect the long-term curve of the Phillips to the right.
No. 37. Under these conditions, we are dealing with a long-term curve of the Phillips (see Answer No. 35).
No. 38. Right items - a) and B), since only the stay of the economy is able to provide potential GDP when unemployment is at its natural level, does not speed up inflation. Attempts of the government to deviate from the natural level of unemployment through stimulating credit and fiscal policies will only increase the level of inflation, and unemployment will be in long-term
the future is returned to its natural level.
№ 39. In Lucas, for this, first of all, it is necessary: \u200b\u200bthe presence of a credit loan from the government conducted by anti-inflation policy; lack of long-term salary agreements; Price flexibility and salary.
scaffolding inflation
U- unemployment rate,
V- Natural unemployment rate.
On the vertical (long-term) Phillips curve, the actual and expected inflation coincide. Moving goes sequentially from the point B3 to the point A3, then from point B2 to point A2, then from point B, in a sharp, all points A are on short-term curves of the Phillips, therefore, in them actual and expected inflation does not coincide (in each of them The expected inflation is higher than the actual); At the same time, the unemployment rate exceeds the natural level of unemployment, the stay of the economy in each of the points A allows you to bring down inflation expectations and the economy returns to the natural level of unemployment, but with increasing levels of inflation. Social costs of combating inflation are reflected in the economy in points / 1, A2, A3, when for the next decline in inflation, it is necessary to pay an increase in unemployment (at a certain time interval until inflation expectations adapt to a lower level of actual inflation) above its natural level.
No. 41. This statement may seem correct only at first glance. Indexing is one of the ways to adapt to inflation, but not a way to combat it. Indexation contributes to the consolidation of inflation expectations and thus gives inflation inertial, self-sustaining nature. The indexation "is eaten" with the next increase in the price level, which causes the requirements of the new indexation of income, etc.
No. 42. In all cases, these deadlines are reduced.
№ 43. The price ceases to be an objective information signal that allows you to effectively distribute resources in the economy. Galoping inflation disorientates the manufacturer, makes it unprofitable for some long-term investment in material production, contributes to speculative use of funds; Inflation expectations, pushing up price rise, distort the real picture of the needs of the population in various goods and services. Hyperinflation further enhances market uncertainty. With it overcoming
or minimizing market uncertainty becomes a difficult task: Calculation of production costs for the long term is impossible, long-term investments are impossible, the flight beating t.
44. Since hyperinflation is accompanied by loss of confidence in the government, the need for political solutions to exit hyperinflation is quite obvious.
No. 45. The traditional conflict of the goals described using a short-term curve of the Phillips consists in increasing the level of unemployment while reducing the level of inflation. Russia in this case is no exception. Attempts to preserve the utensil employment level and, at the same time, to reduce inflation in practice, they turn out the non-payment of wages, the crisis of non-payment, hidden unemployment, the growth of the shadow economy and other negative phenomena.
