According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, the volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 9681.7 billion rubles, which is 4.2% higher than the amount of the relevant period of last year (in real terms). For comparison, a similar indicator of the year was previously -2.3%.
The best results in January-September 2017 in terms of investment growth were achieved in the central and southern federal districts (Fig. 1), where investments in fixed assets in real terms increased by more than 20% compared with January-September 2016 . The improvement in the situation was also observed in the Far Eastern and North Caucasian Federal District, where the growth rates of investment were ahead average level By the country, although the year earlier the corresponding indicators were negative.
Fig. 1. Changing investment in fixed capital for federal districts of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017 (in% to acc. Period of the year)
Source: Rosstat
However, in a number federal districts The situation with investments remains difficult. Thus, in the North-West and Ural pho, the growth rates of investment in fixed assets slowed down sharply and found themselves below the All-Russian level, reaching 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively. At the same time, an investment decline continued in Siberian and Volga FD. The volume of investments in fixed assets in Siberian FO in January-September 2017 decreased by 3.1% in annual terms (against the background of a reduction of 4.9% in a similar period a year earlier), and in Volga - by 6.3% ( Despite the fact that in January-September 2016 the investment decreased by 9.8%).
Regions with high growth rates and fall investment
In January-September 2017, in 48 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the growth rates of investment in fixed assets compared to the same period last year were positive, and in 37 constituent entities of the Russian Federation - negative. These rates themselves also differed significantly from each other. The record high increase in investment in fixed assets was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (4.2 times compared with January-September 2016) and in the city of Sevastopol (2.3 times), which is associated with the construction of infrastructure facilities at the expense of the federal budget. According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, 75.5% of investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Crimea were financed from the federal budget in the Republic of Crimea and 77.3% in Sevastopol.
Even in 7 regions, the growth rates of investment exceeded 30%. For example, in the Amur region, investments in fixed assets in January-September 2017 increased by 48.0% compared with January-September 2016, in the Vologda region - by 44.2%, in the Kaliningrad region - by 41,4 % etc. For these regions, the main source of investment is the funds of private investors, as a rule, large companies. For example, in the Vologda region in 2017, a number of industrial projects are being implemented, including the projects of Severstal on the reconstruction of coke batteries and the construction of new places of polymer coatings and galvanizing, the project "FosAgro" on the construction of a new fertilizer production, the project "Gazprom" on the construction of plots of the main Gas pipeline "Ukhta Torzok 2" and gasification of a number of districts, as well as projects for creating new industries in monogors in the region. Several major "gas" projects are implemented in the Amur region (construction of a gas processing plant and a plot of gas pipeline "Power of Siberia"). Among the regions with a high growth rate of investment, there are largest regions - Moscow (growth in January-September 2017 by 20.3% in annual terms) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (an increase of 35.2%).
Along with this, in a number of subjects of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017, an investment decline was observed, the pace of which also achieved high values. For example, in 19 regions, the rate of falling investment in fixed assets was 10% or more. Thus, in the Republic of Ingushetia, the investment has reached 42.5%, in the Republic of Komi - 35.7%, Kurgan region - 30.6%, etc. In some cases, such rates of falling are associated with the completion of the implementation of large investment projects, which creates the effect of the "high base" of past periods. For example, a year earlier (in January-September 2016), investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Ingushetia increased by 42.2% in the Republic of Komi - by 18.7%, in the Kurgan region - by 16.0%. However, among regions experiencing an investment decline, there are quite large subjects of the Russian Federation, where the investment situation depends not from several, but from a plurality of investment projects. Among such regions - Krasnoyarsk region (Falling investments by 13.0% in January-September 2017 in annual terms), Republic of Bashkortostan (fall by 25.5%), Sverdlovsk region (drop by 7.6%).
Investment situation in the largest subjects of the Russian Federation
In recent years, about half of investments in the fixed capital, carried out in Russia, accounts for a relatively small number of regions of the Russian Federation. For example, in January-September 2017, 50.0% of investments were carried out in 11 subjects of the Russian Federation (Table 1). This is Moscow and the Moscow region, Tyumen region and Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, St. Petersburg, Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk Territory, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Sverdlovsk region. The largest "gap" from the remaining subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of investment has "Troika Leaders" - Moscow (11.5% of investments in fixed assets in Russia), YNAO (7.8%) and KMAO-Ugra (6.9%). For comparison, St. Petersburg, which occupies 4th place among the subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of investment in fixed assets, accounts for only 4.0% of the all-Russian investment. Often these regions have a decisive impact on the investment situation on federal districts: for example, the situation in the central FD is largely determined by the trends that make up in Moscow and the Moscow region, in the Ural FD - in the Tyumen region (together with the KhMAO and YNAO), in South Fo - in the Krasnodar Territory, etc.
Table 1. Regions leaders in the amount of investments in fixed assets in January-September 2017 (in billion rubles. And% to the All-Russian investment volume)
Source: Rosstat
In January-September 2017, the composition of the regions leaders in terms of investment in fixed assets has almost not changed compared to the same period of 2016. The change in only one region was affected: the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) entered the Republic of Leaders, replacing the Republic of Bashkortostan. The positions of some regions have also changed. For example, the positions of St. Petersburg and the Krasnodar Territory rose, and the Moscow region and the Republic of Tatarstan, on the contrary, decreased. Among the regions leading in terms of investment in the country, there were also multidirectional trends in the volume of investment. Thus, in Moscow, the Khanty-Mansiysk JSC and Yakutia there was a high growth rates of investment, and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Sverdlovsk region and Yamalo-Nenets AO, on the contrary, low.
Sources of investment in regions leaders
In most regions of the Russian Federation leading in terms of investment in fixed assets, the main source of investment in fixed assets are own funds organizations (Fig. 2). Examples of such regions are Khanty-Mansiysk AO and the Tyumen region (without JSC), where this share reaches 89.3% and 84.3%, respectively. A significant part of investments (60-65%) is funded at the expense of own funds organizations in the Sverdlovsk region, in the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as in St. Petersburg.
In a number of regional regions in terms of investment, on the contrary, the main part of investments in January-September 2017 was funded due to the funds raised - first of all these are the funds of higher and other organizations (in Rosstat statistics refer to the category "Other"), as well as loans banks. For example, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where a number of projects are being implemented largest companies (such as the development of the Chayandin oil and gas condensate field, the construction of the power supply "Power of Siberia" (the structures of Gazprom), the construction of Inaglinsky and Denisovsky Gokov (Colmar Group), the construction of a diamond-producing enterprise (Verkhne-Muna ore field) (AK "ALROSA") and etc.), for attracted funds (except for funds of budgets and loans of banks) accounted for 58.1% of investments in the main capital of the region. At the same time, in the Yamalo-Nenets AO, where a number of investments in the mining industry is also carried out, 51.9% of investments were carried out at the expense of bank loans (this applies, in particular, NOVATEK projects funded by the loans of Russian and foreign banks).
Some regions are characterized by a relatively high share of budget funds in the structure of sources of investment in fixed assets. In favor more than This refers to Moscow, where in January-September 2017. Budgetary funds were the source of 31.2% of investments in fixed assets (of which 27.1% accounted for the city budget, and 4.0% - federal budget). This structure of sources of investment is related to the implementation of a number of infrastructure projects in Moscow (primarily transport), as well as with the implementation of joint projects between the region and private investors. In addition, the relatively high proportion of budget funds as a source of investment in fixed capital is characteristic of St. Petersburg (19.2% of investments in January-September 2017), Krasnodar Territory (18.5%), Moscow region (18.3% ). In St. Petersburg, as in Moscow, the main part of the invested budget funds accounted for the budget of the city, and in the Krasnodar Territory and the Moscow Region - to the federal budget.
Fig. 2. The investment structure in the fixed capital of the subjects of the Russian Federation - leaders in terms of investment in January-September 2017 (in% of the volume of investments)
The growth of investments in fixed assets in January-June amounted to 4.8% compared with the same period last year, followed from published on Thursday Rosstat; In nominal expression, their size is 5.7 trillion rubles. At the same time, the levels of 2015, the investment has not yet reached - in two years they decreased by 1.2%.
Rosstat publishes long series of data on investment only in annual terms, which makes it difficult to compare the data for six months. Investments in fixed assets fell three years in a row, decreasing for this period by 12.2%: in 2014, the decline was 1.5%, in 2015 - 10.1%, and in 2016 0.9%. In a monthly expression, Rosstat did not publish the dynamics of investment, the latest available quarterly data - for January-March, when investments increased by 2.3% to the relevant period last year (but seasonally decreased by 61.8% by the fourth quarter). Judging by the data in half, the growth in the second quarter can amount to more than 6% by year, assesses the chief analyst Promsvyazbank Ekaterina Krylova.
Investment data is correct, it is possible to trust, it is evidence of the gradual economic recovery, says the head of the laboratory for the study of the problems of inflation and economic growth of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) Vladimir Bessonov. The production of investment goods, such as building materials, on which a long recession has been observed, which has now transferred to the recovery, an expert notes. It conducts an analogy with the behavior of households, for which the analogue of the investment can be purchased cars. "The production of passenger cars is also growing gradually," Reminds Bessonov. Another indirect sign is the growth of imports, a significant part of which is the goods of investment purposes, Vladimir Bessonov adds. Import, according to Rosstat, is growing from August last year, in the first half of the year he increased by 27.4%, and the same period last year.
This "expected" revival in investments, confirms Krylov, it happened "due to a smooth mitigation of the conditions for bank lending to enterprises, improving the financial situation of companies in general and strengthening the ruble." However, analysts were waiting for less positive data - approximately plus 3.5-4%, it notes.
Investment growth in 2017, on the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, should be 2% and stay near this level in the next three years (according to the basic scenario of the forecast of socio- economic Development). Reforms, as a department expects, should speed up investment growth to 3.9%, 6.8% and 9.8% in 2018-2020, respectively. The growth of private market investment is the basic idea of \u200b\u200bthe government plan to accelerate economic growth, the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said. In his opinion, economic predictability and "formation of mutual trust between business and the state should contribute to this.
Investment growth and the truth should be the main driver of GDP (consumption took earlier this role), Chairman of the Council of the Center for Strategic Developments (CSR prepares economic program For the president) Alexey Kudrin. But this factor will accelerate the economy only in the coming years, he was stipulated, then the productivity of labor should be found in the first place. According to the CCR expectations, the share of investment in GDP should grow from 18.3% in 2016 to 22.4% in 2025.
GDP for January-June grew by 1.5% by the first half of last year, also rated Rosstat on Thursday. In July, the industry increased by 1.1% (it slowed down after a jump in May-June), by 1% - retail trafficking. At the same time, real incomes of the population continued to decline (by 0.9%) after stopping the fall, which was in June.
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The data of official statistics on the change in one of the key statistical indicators "Investments in fixed capital" in Russia
For any enterprise, investment in fixed assets serve as the main driving force, directly affecting the increase in production, economic consistency. And on the scale of the country, the state of the investment sphere determines the pace of economic and social Development countries, technical production and its effectiveness, competitiveness in world markets, and as a result - qualitative characteristics Living level of the population. And the investment carried out in the production of consumer goods, construction of housing and socialcultum facilities, directly affects the living conditions of the population.
In the Soviet state, when the planned economy reigned, five-year plans and long-term development programs of the economy regulated the investment process. Modern conditions The wider interpretation of this concept is dictated:
« cash, securities, other property, including property rights, other rights that have monetary evaluationIncreased in the objects of entrepreneurial and (or) other activities in order to profit and (or) achieve other useful effects "(No. 39-FZ of February 25, 1999)
It should be noted that in Russia the caps are invariably remain an important direction. investment activity. Investments in fixed assets in Russia are the costs aimed at:
- new construction;
- expansion, reconstruction and technication existing enterprises;
- purchase of machines, equipment, tools, inventory;
- design and survey work and other costs.
The system of indicators characterizing investments in fixed assets is formed by the results of current solid and selective federal lanomy, as well as a sample survey of the investment activity of organizations engaged in mining operations, in manufacturing, manufacturing and distribution of electricity, gas and water. The latter was held by Rosstat on October 1, 2016. It was aimed at obtaining information about the investment activity of enterprises and organizations in 2016 and the investment intentions of entrepreneurs for 2017. The respondents were 9.9 thousand organizations that are not related to small business entities, and 3.9 thousand small enterprises. And its results are distributed to the entire set of units of statistical observation.
Investments in dynamics
The dynamics of investments serves as a litmus piece of investors and different participants of one or another investment projectVisually showing how promising becomes further development. It affects various factors. The steady economic growth of the country on the dynamics affects, no doubt, positively and guarantees the growth of investments. When the economy is growing stably, without strong oscillations, the dynamics of investment is gradually growing, being a reflection of the general economic situation. Economic crisis There is always invariably with the decline in the volume of investment and inevitable drop in the dynamics.
Since 1987, when restructuring began in the USSR and some were accepted regulationsOpportunities have opened for the influx of foreign direct investment. Until 2008, there was an increase in investment investments in actually acting prices. Analysis of investments in fixed assets in comparable prices (including inflation) shows that real growth Nased only since 1999, when the figure varied from 105.3 to 123.8%. The new drop in volumes due to the 2008-2009 crisis. (more on the crisis and its consequences), occurred in 2009, and in actual, and in comparable prices. The decline in investment in comparable prices is also observed for the last three years.
"The indices of the physical volume of investments in fixed assets are calculated in comparable prices. As comparable, the average annual prices of the previous year are accepted. The revaluation on the average annual prices of the previous year is carried out using the average annual deflator indices. "
Source: Rosstat
Today, the share of investments in fixed assets there is a fifth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. According to the results of 2016, 14,639.8 billion rubles were invested in the country's economy, it is 20.4% of GDP.
Source: Rosstat
More than 80% of the total investment is mastered by organizations of the Russian form of ownership, mainly private. Of 12 192 billion rubles developed by them in 2016, 8,244.0 billion, or 67.6%, by private enterprises. Foreign and joint ventures account for 9.2% as of 2016.
| Total, billion rubles | Including property |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| russian | foreign | joint Russian and foreign |
||
Source: Rosstat
Species structure of investment
In the structure of investment in fixed assets, the largest share falls on buildings and structures, in recent years it has increased from 43.3% in 2011 to 45.2% in 2016. Almost a third of the investment is directed to cars, equipment and vehicles (30.6%), in 2011 they were at the level of 37.9%.
Source: Rosstat
According to the sample examination New domestic machines and equipment purchased 84% of organizations imported - 32%. In the secondary market, 18% of organizations imported - 5% were purchased in the secondary market.
These were mainly vehicles, complexes and technological lines, separate installations of technological equipment and electronic computers.
Of the total number of surveyed organizations, 16% made their acquisitions on the terms financial leasing.
Direction of investment in fixed capital
On the development of such activities as operations with real estate, rental and provision of services, mining of minerals, transport and communications, manufacturing production and production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, almost 80% of investments are directed. And this ratio is maintained throughout all recent years.
Source: Rosstat
Compared to 2011, more than one and a half times increased investments in fixed assets in comparable prices in such activities such as
- production of medical devices, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical devices, photos and film equipment; hours;
- production of office equipment and computing equipment;
- chemical production.
"Distribution of investment in fixed assets by type economic activity It is carried out in accordance with the OKVED Classifier based on the appointment of fixed assets, i.e., the sphere of activity in which they will function. "
| 2016 in% by 2011 |
|
|---|---|
| Production of medical devices, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical devices, photos and film equipment; watch | |
| Manufacture of office equipment and computers | |
| Chemical production | |
| Real estate operations | |
| Extraction of crude oil and natural gas; Providing services in these areas | |
| Scientific research and development | |
| Retailexcept trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles; Repair of household products and personal items | |
| Wholesale, including trading through agents, except for trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles | |
| Fishing, fish farming |
Source: Rosstat
Sources of financing investments
"The calculation of investments in fixed assets on sources of financing is carried out by Rosstat without small business entities and the volume of investments not observed by direct statistical methods."
If in 2011, the use of investment investments took place to a greater extent due to the sources attracted, then at the end of 2016 the situation has changed and their own funds of organizations come to the fore. Today, their share is 50.9%.
Source: Rosstat
In monetary terms it.
