Characteristic signs of the turbulent state of the economy. Global Turbulence Economy - Brenner R. The main provisions of the hypothesis

Genre:Economy

Publisher: High School of Economics

Format: Djvu.

Quality: Scanned Pages

Number of pages: 552

Description:For many years economic science Gradually moved away from real Mira In the direction of formalized axioms and mathematical models, weakly correlated with reality. Economic commentators are trying to fill this gap as their strength, but, not possessing sufficient scientific knowledge, journalists often go to the fashion and turn out to be too absorbed by the current affairs. As a result, serious riddles of the economic development of advanced countries in the period after the end of World War II have not yet received any detailed lighting. Economist and historian Robert Brenner challenges such a position. In its work, "Global Turbulence Economy", he describes the difficult post-war history of the global system and discloses the mechanisms of overproduction and excessive competition, which underlie its long-term crisis since the beginning of the 1970s.

Thanks

I am in colossal debt before Perry Anderson, who provided this project a huge intellectual and moral support from the moment of its origin, carried out the comprehensive criticism of my text and made proposals for its improvement. Mark Glick, Andrew Glyn and Bob Pollin; They generously provided at my disposal of the mountain with difficulty mined information, clarified me how to use it, commented on numerous sketches and held countless hours, discussing questions with me economic theory and actual data, which significantly improved this text. I would also like to express deep gratitude to David Gordon, John Eshortu, Gopalu Balakrishnan, Michael Bernstein, Sam Bowles, Alex Callinos, Jeem Cronin, Geraari Double, Sam Farbru, Bob Fitchu, Mike Goldfield, Lauren Goldnera, Michael Hauard, Dominic Levi, Larsu Moosetu, Jonaton Moses, John Rizeru, Rune Scarustain, Dick Waller and Eric Wright: All these people carefully read my text and made very useful critical comments. I also thank Robin Blackburn for his patience, a friendly attitude, support and essential criticism; He brought this text to its initial publication in New Left Review. I thank Steve Core and Juliana Stallabrass for considerable help in grinding style and giving the text of clarity, as well as Dave Hute, who stumbled into our endless ranks of numbers and taught me how to work with them. In a special debt, I am in front of Szanan Watkins, which late evenings read through all the text and gave me an invaluable advice regarding the form and content of the book, thus discovering the path to the completion of work. John Rogers had enormous help me, doing tedious, but inevitable data collection work, making calculations, which was necessary to compare the rules of profit in different countriesah and numerous sectors of the economy. I am very grateful to him for his generosity. The Verso publishing house, led by Tom Penn and in which Pat Harper, Sophie Skarbek-Borovsk and Andrea Stampson, fulfilled his work on the preparation of a complex manuscript, showing high professionalism, and I want to express my gratitude to these people. Text
from beginning to end, Sebastian Badget has been edited and made a lot to improve the style and filing the material, and for this I am deeply appreciated. Tom Mertes contributed a lot to me in a wide variety of forms throughout, it seems to be infinite time: he collected the data, helped me with a style, criticized the content, offered ideas and did still very much. Truly, only his help and support helped me to keep work to the end, and I do not find sufficient words of gratitude. And once again, I am in a huge debt of Teri Edgar, not only for comprehensive assistance in working on a book from the moment of the emergence of its idea, but also for giving His love all the time preceding the day when the book saw the light. Book's contents
"Global turbulence economy: developed capitalist economies in the period from a long boom to a long decline"

Trajectory profit rate

1. Criticism of explanations "Theory of Proposals"
   1. • Insome Malthusianism
      • Thesis of pressure from wages
   1. • Key to ray
      • Problems of the "Proposal theory"
   1. • From full busy To restrict profits?
      • Is the power of workers able to prevent adaptation?
   • "Contradictions of Keynesianship"
   • Conceptual difficulties of the thesis "Theories of the Offer"
   • Basic empirical evidence against the "Proposal theory"
   • From criticism to alternative
2. Alternative approach to long recession
   • Cost reduction technologies leading to overproduction
   • Failure adaption
   • Fixed capital, uneven development and decline
     • Vulnerability of fixed capital
     • Old fall into claws to new
     • From excess facilities to long decades
   • 4. Post-war economy: from lifting to stagnation

1. The trajectory of post-war lifting
   • Race and cargo of fixed capital
   • Labor orientation
   • Free trade and government intervention
   • Internationalization of the economy and mercantilism aimed at exporting
2. US economy: price of leadership
   1. • Working in the United States in the 1950s
      • Rising competition from abroad
   • 1950s: Path to Stagnation
   • Start 1960s: short-term recovery
3. Germany: Limit based on exports
   • "Miracle" of the 1950s
     • Growth process
   • Contradictions of internationalization: the end of the 1950s - mid-1960s
4. "High Speed \u200b\u200bGrowth" of Japan
   • Initial conditions
   • Growth process
   • Institutional foundations of the Japanese "Miracle"
   • Key role of state
   • Slow Salary growth
   • Investment based export-oriented growth
5. How to explain a long lifting?

1. Path to crisis
   • USA: Falling the rate of profit
     • Salary, labor productivity and facial power
     • Profit share
     • Release ratio to capital
     • What caused a drop in profitability?
     • Labor resistance and the beginning of the recession
   • Final lifting phase in Japan
   • The final phase of lifting in Germany
2. Distribution of crisis
   • Council US Council and World Cash Crisis
   • German economy crisis, 1969-1973
   • Japanese economy crisis, 1970-1973
     • Stage 1. Deflation and decline in the economy
     • Stage 2. Inflation and failed recovery
   • Deeperation of the crisis: conclusions

1. Why did the long decline come?
   • Victory, equivalent to defeat
     • Insufficient output
     • Affecting input: East Asia On the lift
   • Rolling growth
     • Depression is retreating
     • Perecherskaya postponed, height slows down
     • Inflation is gaining momentum
   • Deep down
2. Keynesianism failure: 1973-1979
   1. American economy in the 1970s
      • Warranty demand
      • Counteroffensive American industry
      • Reduction of labor costs
      • Further weakening of the dollar and the fall of the loan value
        
      • Investment, production and performance growth
      • Failure output
   2. Japan in the 1970s
      • Labor costs and quality of labor
      • Reconfiguration industry
      • Germany in the 1970s
      • Recession again
3. Monetarism and the growth of American resistance
   1. • East Asian invasion
      • America causes an opposite strike?
   2. From Reagan to Clinton: the end of a long recession?
      • Reaganian
      • Clinton deflation
      • Transformation during the decline
      • The growth of the non-industrial sector and the increasing fall
      • The golden age of the financial sector and the rich
      • End of a long recession?
   3. Japan in the 1980s and 1990s: from lifting to collapse and further events
      • Weak recovery (1980-1985)
      • "Plase Agreement" and bubble economics (1985-1991)
      • From collapse to transformation?
      • On the way to restoration?
   4. Germany in the 1980s and 1990s: monetarism in the name of export. Through stagnation to growth?
      • Crisis of the German industry
      • On the way to restoration?

1. Long decline and "Century Trend"
2. Again a long lift?
   • New Age of Growth and Hegemony USA?
   • New global lift?
     • Slow demand, export acceleration
     • Optimistic scenario
     • Factors impellent system-wide restoration
     • East Asian crisis
3. XV Afterword. Strengthening turbulence?
   • Restoration in the USA and its limits
   • The loop on the neck of the global economy is compressed
   • Falling profitability and its consequences
   • "New Economy"?
   • From the International Crisis to the Mania of High Technologies
   • Recession
   • Bubble in the residential real estate market - lifting engine
   • Trajectory that believes one's own limits
   • Weak and late recovery
   • Can profitably recover and revive the economy?
   • Two scenarios

To understand market turbulence and its impact on the business, it is worth considering the principles of turbulence in nature, as well as in science and physics. In nature, turbulence is characterized by aggressive or restless behavior. It is worth remembering hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones and tsunami. Their defining characteristics are aggressiveness, chaotic and unpredictability.

Turbulence has always bothered physicists, because it is so hard to simulate and foresee modern development and data processing power in supercomputers. Scientists have developed chaos theory to explore how events may unfold, taking into account the initial conditions and deterministic assumptions. They may show that a small initial effect can lead to an exponential growth of deviations. The behavior of dynamic systems - systems whose condition evolves with time - it seems chaotic, although chaoticism and does not constitute their integral part.

On December 26, 2004, a large tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which frantically circled in the air and on the water, created tremendous turbulence and destruction in Asia. Although people in San Francisco or in an airplane, who flew over Stuttgart, did not feel turbulence, scientists have long suggested that in reality its influence in the atmosphere is felt at a distance of tens of thousands of miles from the source of origin. In 1972, Edward Lorenz, the father of the theory of chaos, asked in his speech: "Does the wave of a butterfly wing in Brazil Tornado in Texas?"

The phrase "Butterfly effect" is based on the idea that the butterfly wings create minor changes in the atmosphere, which may ultimately change the path of the storm, such as a tornado, or delay, speed up or even prevent the attack of the tornado in a certain place. In accordance with the theory, if the butterfly did not wave the wings, the trajectory of Tornado could be completely different. Scientists agree that the butterfly can affect certain elements of meteorological phenomena, including such large-scale phenomena as a tornado.

The question arises - and how it all concerns turbulence in business. First of all, turbulence in business is defined as unforeseen and rapid changes in the internal and external environments of the organization that affect its activities. The "Butterfly Effect" occurs because our world is becoming increasingly interconnected, interdependent, and its "globalization" is accelerated. Today, all nations, all governments and all companies, every person and each organization in the world are interrelated at a certain level, and the influence of turbulence on one of them will certainly feel others in a globally related environment.

To better understand the scope of the influence of turbulence, strong turbulence, destructive chaos and catastrophes caused by them, it is enough to analyze the last four months of 2008, when a few trillion dollars market value in real sector The economy was simply "evaporated", leaving ruins for the newly elected president of the United States and the whole world.

In fact, the public disintegration of the investment bank Bear Stearns.in March 2008, I launched the "American slides". After that, from September to October 2008, the stock exchanges of the world of Lighoradilo. In early October, the American Stock Index S & P 500lost 22% of the cost only within six trading sessions!

On September 24, 2008, the head of the Federal Reserve System of the United States of America Ben Bernanke, and then the Minister of Finance Henry Polson filed an application to the US Congress on approval of the anti-crisis plan for $ 700 billion (officially known as " H.R.1424: Act 2008 on emergency economic stabilization "). "Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve System, the Ministry of Finance and Other Bodies," Congressmen told Bernanke - World financial markets remain in an extremely intense state. "

After 10 days at an emergency meeting, convened by the leaders of the four largest European states to overcome the crisis, acquiring threatening sizes, Jean Claude Triche, head of the European Central Bank, said: "Nothing in the past reminds what we are seeing now. We are experiencing events that were not since the Second World War. This is a period of absolutely exceptional uncertainty that requires answers to events in public and private sectors. "

The historical anti-crisis plan for $ 700 billion for the Banking Industry of the United States of America appeared an anti-crisis plan for the European Central Bank by 1.3 trillion dollars. For the banking industry of Europe, and subsequently, such measures were adopted by Central Banks of Australia, Canada, Japan, Singapore and many other countries. Hungary and Iceland lined up for help from the IMF, while others even looked for direct aid among countries that have a lot of cash, such as China and Russia.

But on September 29, 2008 - the day, which will forever be remembered as a day of financial shame. Then the stroke of Wall Street ended with a colossal loss when the Dow-Jones index for shares industrial enterprises In a matter of minutes, it fell by more than 776 points (and it was the most decline in history) after the US Chamber did not accept the anti-crisis plan.

Credit markets remained closed and frozen, since banks were afraid to provide loans even to other banks. The next 8 days of damages were destroyed by approximately 2.4 trillion dollars. In joint-stock ownership. Further, the situation worsened even more. Interest on loans for banks and companies increased again, since investors were looking for salvation in treasury bills, despite the early signs that the government could acquire packages of non-malfunctional companies in order to try to suspend the credit crisis. The cost of the loan has increased even for leading companies: IBM.i agreed to pay 8% on thirty-year bonds in the amount of $ 4 billion, twice as much as the bet, on which the federal government lends money. And on October 10, "American slides" suddenly stopped when the market made a turn of 180 degrees, and the Dow-Jones index rose almost 900 points in less than forty minutes.

The revival of the economy instantly weakened the fears in the United States, but the agotage of sales in the global financial community. Suddenly, the former boastful conversations about the departure of countries from the US economy began to seem peeled. The world flooded the sinister news. World stocks dropped sharply into one of the worst trading days over the past thirty years, despite the permanent government efforts to suspend the crisis.

On October 24, 2008, when world stock exchanges lost about 10% in most indices, Deputy Governor of England Charles Bean warned: "This is a memorable crisis and, perhaps, the largest financial crisis in the history of mankind."

On November 3-6, 2008, the US Federal Reserve reduced rates to 1%, England Bank reduced its rate by 1.5-3%, and European central bank Reduced a bet to 3.25% - the lowest level from October 2006 and an aggressive response to the rapid immersion of the region into the economic decline.

November 24, 2008 The US government assisted Citigroup Inc.,by agreeing to take on most of the possible losses on high risk assets in the amount of $ 306 billion and invest $ 20 billion. New capital in the largest savings of the bank. And during the week, from February 16, 2009, US President Obama signed his own economic plan to stimulate the economy by 787 billion dollars. In addition to the set of measures to stimulate the housing industry by $ 75 billion, trying to "launch" the US economy and the key industry that Supports the economy.

Since then, you can state unpredictable and enhanced turbulence in the world, which is increasingly globalized. Strategically turning points will occur more and more often, and therefore, companies will have to determine them faster and faster to changes in the environment. Contrasts between business cycles at normal time and turbulent economies are shown in Table. 1.3.

Table 1.3.

Normal economy against the economy of new normality

Describing turbulence in context normal economyvs economy of new normality,it is worth determining the actual essence of the normal economy. In the history of the business, Turbulence has always been present both at the macro level (general economics, local, regional or world) and on the micro level, that is, at the level of a separate company. Private entrepreneurs and businessmen always lived with certain levels of turbulence in business. It is normal, and this is part of the normal economy. In the normal economy of the past, economic oscillations that continued for several years were a significant sign. Over the past 50 years, two substantial oscillations can be distinguished that characterize the normal economy. The first is this economic growth that continues on average from five to seven years and which is often called the "market with an increase in prices". The second is a sharp drop in the market that goes on average ten months. It is often referred to as the "market with a fall in prices" or sometimes "market correction".

These two oscillations were largely the same and somewhat predictable in their movement, despite such deviations as a fall. stock market October 19, 1987, a day, known as "Black Monday". Until the end of October 1987, all major world markets have weakened significantly. The Dow-Jones index was fully recovered only in two years; Until September 1989, the market fully restored its value, which he lost during the collapse of 1987. During these two years of recovery, while the company continued, as always, fighting competitors, after the start of economic growth, it became quite clear, or even predictably that economic growth will continue, it is largely unreprenerable and continuous until the next market will begin correction. Then the cycle will begin again.

The current economy with its reinforced turbulence is noticeably different. Today and in the near future economy of new normality- It is more than just a sequence of business cycles and a decline, which ultimately led to a certain predictability of business at the macro level. Now you can expect more great shocks and many painful falls that cause elevated levels of cumulative risks and uncertainty for companies both on the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. In addition to daily issues of activity on a constantly competing arena and conventional business cycles, business leaders must recognize the flow of large and small obstacles that complicate business planning.

Strengthened turbulence is a new normality that requires business leaders and government leaders to better understand it, to fully perceive, and then develop new directions and strategies for its overcoming to achieve success in the coming years.

January 10, 2012

1. Economic crises and macroeconomic equilibrium: Introduction to the problem

The history of the development of the global economy shows that financial and economic crises occur almost always suddenly, causticing government, households, small and large business. Yesterday, it would seem that the prosperous economy suddenly begins to crumble in front of her eyes, like a card house or Domino knuckles delivered by a cascade. More recently, well-discovered goods and services suddenly cease to be in demand, the population and enterprises begin to radically change models of behavior and consumption, banks abruptly limit lending, the property is cheaper, markets are collapsed, unemployment is growing.

Of course, economic crises associated with induration, epidemics or wars were always. But they had all the clear reasons, eliminating which, one could achieve the restoration of the economic system.

However, starting from the beginning of the XIX century, the economy in industrial developed countries complicated scientific and technical revolution significantly increased labor productivity and activated international trade, ensured mass production and substantial development of credit and financial markets. Failures in the economy have become even more painful and large-scale. There were problems that no one had previously heard - the so-called overproduction crises (see Fig.1).

Thus, the economic crises of 1825 in England, in 1836 in England and the United States, in 1841 in the United States have become powerful shocks for the economic systems of these countries. And crises 1847 and 1857. Covered entire groups of countries and accepted international character.

The destructive effect of crises has become not only a signal of some serious breakdowns in market system and economic relations, but also impulse to active research on this new economic phenomenon. The best representatives of scientific thought began to develop various concepts and approaches to the theory of crises, put forward the hypothesis of the origin and development of crises, as well as ways to minimize the destructive consequences of these severe transition states. Looking ahead, we note that it was not fully solved by this problem and this problem, which is eloquent confirmation of which is the powerful global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2010.

Main ones on issues economic crisesAs before and now, the following questions remain:

a) What causes crisis phenomena, what are the causes of crises?
b) Is it possible to predict a crisis approach in advance?
c) how to overcome the crisis as the smallest loss?

In order to answer questions about the questions, the economists from different countries had to revise many past ideas about the functioning of economic systems, to develop the theories of macroeconomic equilibrium, stationary and transitional states, to fasten new causal relations between economic, technological and social phenomena.

Initially, we turn to the formation of the theory of economic equilibrium. A certain basis for the analysis of failures in macroeconomic systems served as an equilibrium category. Its appearance in the research of economists is quite logical and explained, since in life we \u200b\u200bare faced with the equilibrium and cases of equilibrium disorders often. The child playing with the balls, notes that on the flat table, the balls are in equilibrium, if there is no external force on them. It is worth a little to push the table or tilt it, the balls lose static equilibrium and come into motion. Equilibrium will be stable when the ball is in the well or within a concave surface (see Fig. 2).

From the point of view of the equilibrium illustration, our examples are indicative, but for modeling economic systems are not suitable, since economic processes are the dynamics, movement, not the statics, peace. Therefore, economists began to move to the consideration of dynamic equilibrium systems. They are also B. everyday life Enough - Yula, which the child unwind, or the bike, on which the young man rides is also equilibrium systems. But it is worth it to stop how they immediately lose their balance.

Economists were noticed that the economic system in which the processes of production, exchange and consumption are relatively constant are also in an equilibrium state. True, here we see quite hot discussions about the equilibrium period. So, the day for D.Kh.Berrtatson - the period is too short to manage to dispose of the income received, the week J. Khiks - a period during which you can neglect the price changes, [i] "long-term period" J.Keyins - time, " whose current we will die. "

The problem of plasticity and the absence of a clear watershed between the short-term and long-term period remains and so on, transforming sometimes into the philosophical, which means "long" or "briefly" in relation to temporary segments, "a lot" or "little" in relation to quantity, etc. It is possible that the economy can be viewed as a system in a constantly supported transitional state with an arbitrarily selected point of reference. One of the interesting theories in this regard is the concept of inflation of financial or price bubbles. But we will talk about her somewhat later.

2. Economic cycles and explanations of crises

At the heart of any science, there are certain source principles and patterns that scientists are trying to detect. Sometimes these laws and causal relationships cannot be detected by centuries, but after finding out the structure of certain systems, the establishment of the laws they are subject to, everything seems obvious, and we think with a smile and light bewilderment - why there are so many in the opening of this phenomenon time?

Thus, the concept of the Universe structure of the Universe was used by centuries in humanity; Whole millennia, people did not know about the big and small circle circle; They did not know about the frequency of the properties of the chemical elements, open D.I. Medeleev. The economists of the new time tried to comprehend the essence of the categories "Cost", "value" and "utility", believing that it is necessary to allocate the primary production, distribution and exchange, based on the simplest economic systems - for example, at the Robinson Economy.

However, simple models and schemes could not explain the economic crises that took more and more threatening sizes in the XIX century and in their orbit at once many countries. Practice has set new great tasks before scientists, which began to be addressed on the basis of a wide variety of approaches. Consider the main of them.

Helioeconomic model. Famous English economist W.S.Jevonsons (1835-1882), which was an unusually versatile and talented man who studied many sciences - including meteorology, chemistry, statistics - put forward a very interesting theory of economic cycles, the appearance of which he linked with changes in solar activity . Jevonsus noticed that crises in the economy do not have a clear time frame and can vary widely from 5-6 to 10-15 years. Based on the fact that the periods of solar activity also have some scatter in 7-15 years, he suggested that our luminaire has an appropriate effect on the weather and agriculture, on the yield of most cultures. Vintage fluctuations affect prices, as well as people's mood. Periods of excessive optimism are replaced by phases of fears and panic, which is a fundamental prerequisite for turning the crisis.

It should be noted that this theory was supported and developed by Russian scientist A.L. Chizhevsky (1897-1964), a man of huge talent and encyclopedic knowledge. He graduated from commercial and archaeological institutes, wrote poems, paintings, put scientific experiences. In his dissertation, "The study of the periodicity of the world-historical process" (1918) and later, the work of "physical factors of the historical process" (1924) Chizhevsky on the basis of the collected data, tables and numbers shows how solar activity and the location of the planets (it was very respectful Astrology) influence war, revolution and public sentiment.

Monetary model. The fluctuations of the business cycle and economic crises supporters of the monetary model explain the cash factors. The first ringed the fluctuations in economic growth with the stocks of gold English economist J. Kitchin. In his opinion, short cycles at 3.5-4 years old arise in the economic system when the movement of capital and stocks of gold in the country is beginning to change significantly.

Kitchin established a certain 40-month pattern in the fluctuations in the financial indicators of Great Britain and the United States and decided that this cycle (called later by his name) is associated with the movement of capital. As based on cash circulation These countries lay the gold standard, the amount of money in circulation was closely related to gold reserves in the central bank.

If gold avuarov in the country was enough, then the money was cheap, and the rate bank interest Low. Entrepreneurs willingly took loans to expand business. As a result, the employment and loading of equipment grew up with some lag, more products were produced. At some point in time, the overproduction of goods was manifested, the demand fell. Prices decreased, the economic entities grew uncertainty in the future. Gold was forced and adhered to better times. The depression phase occurs (see Fig.3).

Inhabable goods in the country began to be sold better for export, the trade balance improved, gold came to the country. The lifting phase began. The situation has improved, households and firms began to spend more money from their savings. The rise of the economy accelerated and overwhelmed into the boom. Next, the cycle was repeated.

Supporter of this concept in its modified version was M.Friden. He explained the emergence of economic crises monetary policy monetary authorities. Examining the background of the development of economic crises in the XIX and XX centuries, Friedmen showed that money massIn appeal, did not comply with the real needs of the economic system. In this regard, the market economy did not regulate itself and the economic downturn occurred.

Investment model. The French doctor and economist K. Zhonor (1819-1905) put forward his theory of ripples of the business cycle with a period of 7-11 years. As you can see, doctors from France, continuing the tradition of the court doctor and chief physiocirate Francois Kene, still enrich the economic science.
The meaning of the explanation by Zhuzaler crises is reduced to the investment component economic processes. From making a decision on investing before creating a new business, a rather large distance is, "said Zhulyor. By this period of time, it should also be added to the phase of access to the design capacity of the newly created enterprise.

Thus, the following algorithm is evaporated. At a certain stage of the economic cycle, entrepreneurs and people who want to become, begin to exercise economic activity, believing that it was now that it was a favorable moment. Used bank creditEconomic entities expand existing production or building new capacities. As coordination in decision-making between them is not, and the planned start in market economy It is absent, then excessive investments in any sectors of the economy lead to excessive production. There is an imbalance, the demand quickly falls. Newly produced products to sell no one, entrepreneurs have sharply decreasing profits, the share of unprofitable enterprises is growing. Credits taken from banks to repay with nothing. Together with the bankruptcy of enterprises become insolvent and commercial bankswho lose as equityand customer funds. The crisis applies to trade and foreign partners. The circle closes, and economic cycle Reproduce again at the new level.

Demographic and infrastructure models. The main model of this species is considered to build the Cuznez (1901-1985). Cycles or rhythms of the blacksmith have a period of 15-25 years. Such a large duration of these cycles is due to the processes of the resettlement of peoples and the construction of infrastructure for immigrants.

Demographic cycles are linked to a blacksmith with migration processes and movements of large masses of people in places with a better economic situation. This topic is close to the blacksmith, as he himself was born in the territory Russian Empire And in 1922 emigrated to the United States.

The arrangement of immigrants occupies a fairly long time, since for a normal stay they need housing, the situation, the workplace. Formed new construction cycle. Thus, waves of migration, influx and outflow of labor, are associated with the expectations of people.

In addition, some economists believe that long cycles are applied to medium and short cycles. Studies have been revealed that cyclicity and crises are manifested with different time intervals along the so-called three-cyclic scheme, when total fluctuations are determined by three cycles of different duration. Prolonged vibrational processes in 55 years were named after N. Kontrayev's long waves, they were superimposed on Zhulyar and Kitchin cycles. Folding harmonics interact with each other, forming a common cyclic process.

Stock model. Some economists explain periodically emerged economic crises with negative expectations of the subjects of the economic system, which are bound, first of all with the market valuable papers and stock Exchangeth. When these expectations are overestimated, the shares of industrial corporations are overvalued. As soon as the holders of securities have doubts about the reliability and feasibility of investment data, they begin to reset the paper belonging to them. The process of closing positions on the stock exchange is acquired avalanche-like character, the balance of the sphere of circulation and production is disturbed, crisis occurs.

It was by such a scenario that the most powerful crisis of the twentieth century was flowing - 1929-1933. In October 1929, panic began on the New York Stock Exchange, all members of the auction sought to sell securities; There were practically no buyers. As a result, securities depreciated, the owners of these papers (among which there were many commercial banks) were ruined. Their bankruptcy entailed a wave of mutual non-payment; Bankruptcy spread to other companies. The crisis has taken world nature.

Economic crises are not stopped and currently. Most serious in their political, economic and social consequences It became for Russia the crisis of 1998. The beginning of the crisis was found in the Asian markets - in South Korea, in Malaysia and Singapore. Foreign holders of securities of issuers of these countries began to hastily sell them due to the loss of trust. Russia, as a developing market, also hit the list of countries with an unstable economy, which led to the reset by investors of state securities - GKO in the amount of $ 20-25 billion. As a result, the deep devaluation of the ruble occurred (the ruble was depreciated by 4 times), Significantly increased unemployment, the petty and medium business suffered, the living level of most citizens of Russia decreased.

The first global financial and economic crisis of the XXI century, which broke out in 2008-2010., So far, in our opinion, it ended not completely and can flow across the dual bottom script followed by a protracted recession. On his individual features we will focus below.

[i] See: Blag M. Economic Thought in Retrospective. - M.: "Case LTD", 1994. - p.346.
By that time, the German astronomer of the Swab was established that the increase in stains was observed with cyclicality in 7-11 years. Such cyclicity, as practice has shown, was observed for many phenomena - in the activation of the reproduction of locust, in alternating arid and overwhelmed periods, in the emergence of the epidemics of the plague. Thus, Jevonz linked the cyclic development of economic crises with natural phenomena, which was led by, for example, to a crown, which, in turn, led to the unbalance of the economy and the emergence of the crisis.

Over the years, economic science has gradually moved away from the real world towards formalized axioms and mathematical models, weakly related to reality. Economic commentators are trying to fill this gap as their strength, but, not possessing sufficient scientific knowledge, journalists often go to the fashion and turn out to be too absorbed by the current affairs. As a result, serious riddles of the economic development of advanced countries in the period after the end of World War II have not yet received any detailed lighting.
Economist and historian Robert Brenner challenges such a position. In its work "Global Turbulence Economy", he describes the difficult post-war history of the global system and discloses the mechanisms of overproduction and excessive competition, which underlie its long-term crisis since the beginning of the 1970s.

In the process of vital activity, all socio-economic systems generate waves. Their huge set due to various types and sizes - from the family to the state and global Mira generally. The imposition of these waves, the smallest of which possess extremely unstable behavior, creates an erratic, as many seems to be a picture of reality. However, this apparent messy. Since it has a number of regular statistical and dynamic manifestations.

The latter includes a series of sustainable waves of production and consumption, a duration of 60 to 4 years, found in the Kondratyev, Kuznets, Chizhevsky and Kitchin economy. The constructive hypothesis for explaining the wave mechanism of the distribution of wealth has advanced in the second half of the XX century. Mathematics Kolmogorov. In accordance with her, large changes in the economic condition of society are less common, in such a way that the spatial scale of oscillations decrease with increasing frequency to the extent 2/3.

Developing this hypothesis further, we managed to theoretically describe a wide range of energy distribution in society, as well as the mechanism for the formation and decay of the chain of the largest macroeconomic waves. Maximum periodWith which world economy can fluctuate on the entire surface of the Earth, it is estimated that in this chain approximately 220 years, and the minimum period is estimated by the land surface - 140 years. Little to the size of the territory of the Russian economy (CIS) - about 70 (80) years, Chinese and American - 60 years, Indian economy and the European world economy - about 40 years, and Japanese and German - 20 years. These largest oscillations are superimposed or more small and less stable waves are generated. Thus, an economic environment that generates waves acquires the character of the ensemble of particles, which sings its melody, and is described by its own, as established by Kolmogorov, the turbulent spectrum of oscillations.

Economic waves are characterized by the duality of physical (real) and value (valuable or financial) processes that are manifested in freedom of business activities, the development of institutions. At the same time, the waves, determined by the scale of the economy (GDP) and the scale of the territory, in Russia more consistent with each other than in the United States and other major countries.

Economic interpretation of Kolmogorov's hypothesis

The dramatic state of the modern world economy at the head of the corner delivered the task of a deeper understanding of the cyclic wave-like character of the changes occurring in it, as well as the conditions for their intelligence in crisis processes. Figuratively speaking, some types of waves form harmonic oscillations, a well-coordinated ensemble, or a melody. Others acquire a chaotic, asymmetric, disharmonious, or turbulent, character. At the same time, various small waves, or non-equilibrium (turbulent) processes, can acquire explosive in nature, accumulate into the peculiar "ninth shaft" (just as they are described in studies of Academician Zakharov).

Wave-like economic speakers Andrei Nikolayevich Kolmogorova across the 1960s. To the discovery of the similarity of the spectra of the fluctuations of financial and hydrodynamic streams and the conclusion that the spatial scale of oscillations decrease with increasing frequency to the degree 2/3, for Germany and Japan - 20 years, and for the global world as a whole - 220 years (if it is evaluated on the land surface, it will be 140 years old).

If instead of the world as a whole as a "axial country", which determines the dynamics of economic processes, to take the United States, the duration of the cycles in different countriesah will change slightly. At the same time, if the steady cycle of the "axial country" economy, for example, the United States, differs from 60 years, then the duration of the world cycle will also change.

If we take a hypothesis that scale economic System It is not determined by non-area, but the volume of GDP or population, the picture of the wave dynamics of various countries will change greatly. In such economic giants, as the United States, the European Union and China, the duration of the cycle will be about 120-140 years, while in Russia will remain close to 70. The cycle, determined by the population, is shortened for Russia for almost 60 years, whereas in India and China will be 120-130 years. It is noteworthy that in Russia the duration of the waves asked by the territory, GDP and the population differs little from each other. The consistency of these waves is only higher in the CIS, that is, in historical Russia. At the same time lack of the population modern Russia It can be estimated at 15% (i.e., Russia takes at least 167 - 168 million people). In other countries, with the exception of Brazil, the level of dispersion of various waves is significantly higher.

Table 1.

Duration of cycles in major countries of the world (years), estimated by area (S.), GDP ( GDP.), the population ( Population)

It is possible that in the Trochism: the area of \u200b\u200bthe territory - GDP - the population, it is the size of the territory that plays a special historical role. This may be due to the fact that the passionality of the population (L. Gumilev) finds its expression in many respects precisely in the size of the mastered territory. At the same time, the relative dimensions of the territories of states are more permanent values \u200b\u200bthan the comparative scope of GDP and the population.

Two-dimensional economy and energy of society

In the economy, in contrast to classical physics, invariants are not so simple due to the complexity, the multicomponance of economic systems and their "openness" for the influence of various natural factors. Although a certain exchange between financial and real parameters, apparently, still exists. The tougher policy is carried out with respect to certain parameters of the economy (for example, financial), the higher the uncertainty of others - the real - development parameters and vice versa. This is explained by the fact that in the economy, as in physics, there is its own meaningful two-dimensionality - like that which in physics is related to the kinetic and potential energy, or the duality of the waves and particles. In classic political economy She found an incarnation in the utility and cost (value) of goods, in lately We are more often talking about the spatial and information components of economic events and economic development.

This duality is associated with the asymmetry of economic dynamics, which can be seen in the long wave of the Condratyev business activity (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Basic phases of business activity Condratyev waves

To highlight the oscillations economic environmentdescribed by equation (3), a business component, we draw attention to the fact that the growth of the economy is usually accompanied by an increase in the spatial size of the market. Formally this process can be described by the expression.

l. Market / L. = t./ T.

Substituting it into the Universal Law of Turbulence (3), we obtain the first dynamic consequence of the turbulence hypothesis

E ~ (1- T / T) 2 (T / T) 2.3 (4)

It speaks of the existence of a special energy of society, in our opinion, social (passionary, if follow Gumilev) of nature. Since the growth of the size of the market is either connected, or is due to the growth of the society, which it serves, and the growth of the society, in turn, is a consequence of the presence in it connecting all people on the land of integration forces.

Thus, we come to the quantitative determination of the distinctive feature of the turbulent variability of the economy, which causes the existence of society, as a whole. In other words, we come to the definition of the energy of passionary (social) forces and the law of the distribution of this energy along the length of the cycle (see Fig. 2).

The energy of passionation, as the theory says and shows the graph in fig. 2, highest at the beginning of the cycle when economic condition Societies are extremely low. Only this "social", according to many, energy, and may, if you believe theories, keep society from full decay in its worst economic situation.

Fig. 2. Theoretical chart of changes in the energy of the passionality of the subject of the economy (E.) and production volumes (V.) by the phases of the long cycle

Today we do not know not only all, but even the most distinctive features of this type of integration, or social, energy. Our study only puts the question of the need to systematically study and develop on this basis of measurement methods. Today, pushing out of his experience, we can only suggest that this energy, depending on the context of the task, can be associated either with the frequency of economic events, or with the information saturation of the activities of the subject of the economy, the number of independent energy states, the energy of chaotic oscillations, inflation, entropy and t. d.

In the first approximation, all this variety of indicators can be denoted by one high-quality concept - the degree of freedom of behavior of the subject of the economy. (Under this concept, in our opinion, it is also suitable for the fact that in the West (B. Letar, R. Matthew, for example), is called the complexity of the economic system, which is measured by the number of its possible structural states.)

The second dynamic consequence of the turbulence hypothesis is obtained from equation (3), pushing out from the well-known approval of Adam Smith that over time, the growth of the richness of society is related to the division of labor, or wider - the diversity of activities. In our symbols, this leads to expression:

l. Section / L \u003d 1 - T / T

Substituting it into a universal law (3), we will get

E ~ (1 - T / T) 2/3 (T / T) 2 (5)

A graph of this dependence and is shown in Fig. 2. He also says that as the diversity of economic (and wider - social) increases, there is a continuous (up to 80% cycle) an increase in the energy of the economic environment and the wealth created.

Thus, we see that the state of large macroeconomic systems cannot be described only by the volumetric characteristics of activity, as well as financial and material flows that they generate. There are also certain derivatives of the concept of "degree of freedom of behavior of the subject" of the economy.

The main adjustable parameter in the pair of indicators "Freedom economic activity - production volumes "is the degree of freedom (i.e., the share of degrees of freedom from their total number of subjects affordable), and the main result economic activity - its volume.

The turbulent economy model assumes that very large economic systems The asymmetric relationship between the dynamics of the growth of the economy and the change in the degrees of freedom of economic activity (otherwise - the uncertainty of the behavior of the economic entity), etc. This manifests itself in the fact that in most parts of the long cycle, the growth of production volumes is accompanied by a decrease in the degree of freedom of economic activity and the invertisement for the time of peaks of business activity and economic productivity.

This asymmetry of economic dynamics is a consequence of a dissipative, turbulent, or, otherwise, crisis, the nature of the development of all large systems, including physical, and economic. At the same time, the graphical asymmetry of economic dynamics is a visual manifestation of its dissipative nature, since the harmonic non-unforgettable (uncrucified) oscillations are described by symmetric waves (Fig. 3).

Production volumes

Fig. 3. Theoretical dependence of the degree of freedom of economic activity (frequency of economic events) on the volume of economic activity.

As can be seen on the last rice. 2 and 3, and at the beginning, and at the end of the long cycle there is a parallel sharp growth or a decline in both social activity and economic activities of the Company, and in most of the cycle there is their opposite change.

At the beginning of the cycle, the economic growth crisis occurs, due to the moral aging of the government and institutions that dominated this. It shows that private optimis and private freedoms lead to public stagnation and inefficiency of the economy. Then the spontaneous or regulated growth of all forms of social and economic activity (freedom) begins, which is replaced by a period of limiting freedoms due to either by external reasons (world crises), or internal (state regulation). The desire for public national balance (sustainability) does not mean the suppression of private freedom and economic efficiency.

This is a theoretical dependence, the empirical confirmation of which is difficult to get.

Questions, in what condition we are and where we are moving, leaving both from the local crisis of 2008 and the systemic national crisis of centuries, remain extremely debated.

Taking a 70-year duration of the Russian cycle as the basis, it is important to determine its turning points. This is rather 1989-1991, which launched a cycle of development of new Russia. At the initial stage - the 1990s - he was characterized by the peak of passionate and freedoms (as well as the maximum economic uncertainty) with the deepest drop in economic activity. 2000s. were marked by a drop in economic freedoms, increasing (restoration) state regulation At high growth rates of the economy, which in 2007 (for 18 years, if considered since 1989) overcame the pre-crisis maximum. It is possible that the beginning 17 - 18 year-old wave forms the first quarter of a new large (70-year-old) Russian cycle, which will end in the 2060s

What conclusions on the prospects of Russia leads this turbulent look at its economic history?

First of all, the need to develop a ultra-strengtime strategy for the development of the country for 35 and 70 years ahead (reflecting both the duration of the Russian cycle and 1/3 harmonics of the world economy cycle), as some of the structures of the American government and the Chinese. True, it's not so much in the strategy as an ideological value document, with all the importance of goaling, as in the volitional targeted actions that pursue future long-term trends and meanings in everyday life. Not only the strategic idea is needed, but also practical strategic management.

Formation new russian economy, a new development model, is unlikely to be a refund or recurring of searches and projects of the restructuring times or the liberal 1990s. Rather, it can be the historical processing of the experience of the entire previous 70th anniversary, the initial point for which was served 1917-1922. Maybe the Russian social jerking will not go out, but will make a new breakthrough in the revival of the spiritual foundations of social and economic life, and new Russia overcomes the sin of the barbaric chase for profit and capital accumulation, will be able to form national System Support for talents and passionaries, not mediocrity, to achieve the rise of Russian depths and education of the new cellular regional structure of Russia, replacing the hypertrophied development of the two capitals. Since economic, demographic and spatial waves in the CIS space are quite well agreed with each other, one of the challenges of the nearest 11 - 18th anniversary will be the real reintegration of the post-Soviet space and the creation of a new spatial, economically and spiritually connected Russian world, which includes partner countries and Allies of Russia.

The implementation of this project will require a new elite, and a new social contract of society, and the authorities aimed at saving the Russian people and Russia, overcoming the split born as
1917th and 1991 G.

Literature

1. Dobrhaev O.V. Russia 2006 - the leader of the global economy // Independent newspaper. 1994, 19 Aug.

2. Klepach A.N., Dobrhaev O.V. It can only be a smart economy // Philosophy of the economy. 2011. № 6.

3. Dobrhaev O.V. Physical laws of social development ... // Public sciences and modernity. 1996. No. 6.

For the first time, the interpretation of Kolmogorov's hypothesis in relation to Russia appeared 19 years ago. Then, in 1994, it was based on the time of the end of the 80-year-old long cycle of the 1998 Soviet economy (the transition to the 70-year-old Russian cycle) and the possibility of restoring the main macroeconomic indicators Russia no earlier than 2006