According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017 the volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 9681.7 billion rubles, which is 4.2% higher than the volume of the corresponding period last year (in real terms). For comparison, the same indicator a year earlier was -2.3%.
The best results in January-September 2017 in terms of investment growth were achieved in the Central and Southern Federal Districts (Fig. 1), where investments in fixed assets in real terms increased by more than 20% compared to January-September 2016 An improvement in the situation was also observed in the Far Eastern and North Caucasian FDs, where the investment growth rate outstripped average level across the country, although a year earlier the corresponding indicators were negative.
Rice. 1. Change in investments in fixed assets by federal districts of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017 (in% to the corresponding period of the previous year)
Source: Rosstat
However, in a number federal districts the investment situation remains difficult. Thus, in the North-Western and Ural FDs, the growth rates of investments in fixed assets slowed down sharply and turned out to be below the all-Russian level, amounting to 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively. At the same time, the investment decline continued in the Siberian and Volga Federal Districts. The volume of investments in fixed assets in the Siberian Federal District in January-September 2017 decreased by 3.1% in annual terms (against the background of a decrease by 4.9% in the same period a year earlier), and in Privolzhsky - by 6.3% ( despite the fact that in January-September 2016 investments decreased by 9.8%).
Regions with high rates of investment growth and decline
In January-September 2017, in 48 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the growth rates of investments in fixed assets were positive compared to the same period last year, and in 37 constituent entities of the Russian Federation - negative. These rates themselves were also significantly different from each other. A record high growth in investment in fixed assets was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (4.2 times compared to January-September 2016) and in Sevastopol (2.3 times), which is associated with the construction of infrastructure facilities at the expense of the federal budget. According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, 75.5% of investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Crimea and 77.3% in Sevastopol were financed from the federal budget.
In another 7 regions, investment growth rates exceeded 30%. For example, in the Amur Region, investments in fixed assets in January-September 2017 increased by 48.0% compared to January-September 2016, in the Vologda Region - by 44.2%, in the Kaliningrad Region - by 41.4 % etc. For these regions, the main source of investment is funds from private investors, usually large companies. For example, a number of industrial projects are being implemented in the Vologda Oblast in 2017, including Severstal's projects for the reconstruction of coke oven batteries and the construction of new polymer coatings and galvanizing workshops, the Phosagro project for the construction of a new fertilizer plant, Gazprom's project for the construction of sections of the main the Ukhta-Torzhok 2 gas pipeline and gasification of a number of districts, as well as projects for the creation of new production facilities in single-industry towns in the region. Several large "gas" projects are being implemented in the Amur Region (construction of a gas processing plant and a section of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline). Among the regions with high investment growth rates, there are the largest regions - Moscow (growth in January-September 2017 by 20.3% in annual terms) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (growth by 35.2%).
Along with this, in a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017, there was an investment decline, the rates of which also reached high values. For example, in 19 regions, the rate of decline in investment in fixed assets was 10% or more. Thus, in the Republic of Ingushetia the drop in investments reached 42.5%, in the Komi Republic - 35.7%, in the Kurgan region - 30.6%, etc. In a number of cases, such rates of decline are associated with the completion of the implementation of large investment projects, which creates the effect of the “high base” of previous periods. For example, a year earlier (in January-September 2016), investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Ingushetia increased in annual terms by 42.2%, in the Komi Republic - by 18.7%, in the Kurgan region - by 16.0%. However, among the regions experiencing an investment downturn, there are also fairly large constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the investment situation depends not on a few, but on a multitude of investment projects. These regions include the Krasnoyarsk Territory (a 13.0% drop in investment in January-September 2017 in annual terms), the Republic of Bashkortostan (a 25.5% drop), and the Sverdlovsk Region (a 7.6% drop).
Investment situation in the largest constituent entities of the Russian Federation
In recent years, about half of the investments in fixed assets carried out in Russia have been in a relatively small number of regions of the Russian Federation. For example, in January-September 2017, 50.0% of investments were made in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Table 1). These are Moscow and the Moscow region, the Tyumen region and the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous districts, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk Territory, The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Sverdlovsk region. The largest "gap" from other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of investment volume belongs to the "three leaders" - Moscow (11.5% of investments in fixed assets in Russia), Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (7.8%) and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra (6.9%). For comparison, St. Petersburg, which ranks 4th among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of investment in fixed assets, accounts for only 4.0% of the total Russian investment. Often these regions have a decisive impact on the investment situation in federal districts: for example, the situation in the Central Federal District is largely determined by the trends emerging in Moscow and the Moscow Region, in the Ural Federal District - in the Tyumen Region (together with the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), in the Southern Federal District - in the Krasnodar Territory, etc.
Table 1. Leading regions in terms of investment in fixed assets in January-September 2017 (in billion rubles and in% of the total Russian investment volume)
Source: Rosstat
In January-September 2017, the composition of the leading regions in terms of investment in fixed assets remained almost unchanged compared to the same period in 2016. The change affected only one region: the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) was included in the 11 leaders, replacing the Republic of Bashkortostan. The positions of some regions have also changed. For example, the positions of St. Petersburg and the Krasnodar Territory increased, while the positions of the Moscow Region and the Republic of Tatarstan, on the contrary, decreased. Among the regions leading in terms of investment in the country, there were also multidirectional trends in the volume of investment. Thus, in Moscow, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yakutia, there were high rates of investment growth, while in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Sverdlovsk Region and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, on the contrary, they were low.
Sources of investment in the leading regions
In most regions of the Russian Federation, leading in terms of investment in fixed assets, the main source of investment in fixed assets are own funds organizations (Fig. 2). Examples of such regions are Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Tyumen Oblast (excluding AO), where this share reaches 89.3% and 84.3%, respectively. A significant part of investments (60-65%) is financed from the own funds of organizations in the Sverdlovsk region, in the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as in St. Petersburg.
In a number of leading regions in terms of investment, on the contrary, the bulk of investments in January-September 2017 was financed from borrowed funds - primarily funds from higher and other organizations (in Rosstat statistics they are classified as “other”), as well as loans banks. For example, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where a number of projects are being implemented largest companies(such as the development of the Chayandinskoye oil and gas condensate field, the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline (Gazprom structures), the construction of the Inaglinsky and Denisovsky GOKs (Kolmar Group of Companies), the construction of a diamond mining enterprise (Verkhne-Munskoye ore field) (AK Alrosa) and etc.), borrowed funds (except for budget funds and bank loans) accounted for 58.1% of investments in fixed assets of the region. At the same time, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, where a number of investment projects in the extractive industry are also being carried out, 51.9% of investments were made at the expense of bank loans (this applies, in particular, to NOVATEK projects financed by loans from Russian and foreign banks).
Some regions are characterized by a relatively high share of budgetary funds in the structure of sources of investment in fixed assets. In our to a greater extent this applies to Moscow, where in January-September 2017 budget funds became the source of 31.2% of investments in fixed assets (of which 27.1% came from the city budget, and 4.0% - from federal budget). This structure of investment sources is associated with the implementation of a number of infrastructure projects in Moscow (primarily transport), as well as with the implementation of joint projects between the region and private investors. In addition, a relatively high share of budget funds as a source of investment in fixed assets is typical for St. Petersburg (19.2% of investments in January-September 2017), Krasnodar Territory (18.5%), Moscow Region (18.3% ). In St. Petersburg, as in Moscow, the bulk of the invested budget funds came from the city budget, and in the Krasnodar Territory and the Moscow Region - from the federal budget.
Rice. 2. The structure of investments in fixed assets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - leaders in terms of the volume of investments in January-September 2017 (in% to the volume of investments)
Official statistics on changes in one of the key statistical indicators "investment in fixed assets" in Russia
For any enterprise, investments in fixed assets are the main driving force that directly affects the increase in production volumes, economic viability. And on a national scale, the state of the investment sector determines the pace of economic and social development countries, the technical level of production and its efficiency, competitiveness in world markets, and as a result - quality characteristics living standards of the population. And investment in the production of consumer goods, construction of housing and social and cultural facilities directly affects the living conditions of the population.
In the Soviet state, when the planned economy reigned, five-year plans and long-term programs for economic development regulated the investment process. Modern conditions dictate a broader interpretation of this concept:
« cash, securities, other property, including property rights, other rights that have monetary value invested in objects of entrepreneurial and (or) other activities in order to make a profit and (or) achieve another useful effect "(No. 39-FZ of February 25, 1999)
It should be noted that capital investments in Russia are invariably an important area. investment activities... Fixed capital investments in Russia are expenditures aimed at:
- New construction;
- expansion, reconstruction and technical re-equipment operating enterprises;
- purchase of machinery, equipment, tools, inventory;
- design and survey work and other costs.
The system of indicators characterizing investments in fixed assets is formed based on the results of current continuous and selective federal statistical observations, as well as a sample survey of the investment activity of organizations engaged in mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. The latter was carried out by Rosstat on October 1, 2016. It aimed to obtain as a result information on the investment activity of enterprises and organizations in 2016 and the investment intentions of entrepreneurs for 2017. The respondents were 9.9 thousand organizations that do not belong to small businesses, and 3.9 thousand small businesses. And its results are extended to the entire set of units of statistical observation.
Investments in dynamics
The dynamics of investments serves as a litmus test for investors and various participants in one or another investment project, clearly showing how promising its further development becomes. It is influenced by various factors. The stable economic growth of the country influences the dynamics, no doubt, positively and guarantees the growth of the volume of investments. When the economy grows steadily, without strong fluctuations, the dynamics of investment gradually grows, reflecting the general economic situation. Economic crisis invariably entails a decrease in the volume of invested funds and an inevitable drop in dynamics.
Since 1987, when perestroika began in the USSR and some regulations, opportunities have opened up for the inflow of foreign direct investment. Until 2008, there was an increase in investment investments in actual prices. An analysis of investments in fixed assets in comparable prices (taking into account inflation) shows that real growth emerged only since 1999, when the indicator varied from 105.3 to 123.8%. A new drop in volumes due to the crisis of 2008-2009. (in more detail about the crisis and its consequences), happened in 2009, both in actual and in comparable prices. A decrease in the volume of investments in comparable prices has been observed over the past three years.
“The indices of the physical volume of investments in fixed assets are calculated in comparable prices. Average annual prices of the previous year were taken as comparable. The revaluation into the average annual prices of the previous year is carried out using the average annual deflator indices ”.
Source: Rosstat
Today, investments in fixed assets account for a fifth of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). At the end of 2016, 14,639.8 billion rubles were invested in the country's economy, which is 20.4% of GDP.
Source: Rosstat
More than 80% of the total volume of investments is mastered by organizations of the Russian form of ownership, mainly private. Of the 12,192 billion rubles they spent in 2016, 8,244.0 billion, or 67.6%, were private enterprises. At the end of 2016, the share of foreign and joint ventures accounted for 9.2%.
| Total, RUB bln | Including property |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian | foreign | joint Russian and foreign |
||
Source: Rosstat
Species structure of investments
In the structure of investments in fixed assets, the largest share falls on buildings and structures, in recent years it has increased from 43.3% in 2011 to 45.2% in 2016. Almost a third of investments are directed to machinery, equipment and vehicles(30.6%), in 2011 they were at the level of 37.9%.
Source: Rosstat
Based on the materials of a sample survey new domestic machinery and equipment was purchased by 84% of organizations, imported - 32%. On the secondary market, cars and equipment of domestic production were purchased by 18% of organizations, imported - 5%.
These were mainly vehicles, complexes and technological lines, individual installations technological equipment and electronic computers.
Of the total number of organizations surveyed, 16% made their purchases on terms financial leasing.
Direction of investments in fixed assets
For the development of activities such as operations with real estate, rent and provision of services, mining, transport and communications, manufacturing and production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, almost 80% of investments are directed. And a similar ratio persists throughout all recent years.
Source: Rosstat
Compared to 2011, investments in fixed assets in comparable prices in such activities as
- production of medical devices, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours;
- production of office equipment and computers;
- chemical production.
"Distribution of investments in fixed assets by type economic activity is carried out in accordance with the OKVED classifier based on the purpose of fixed assets, that is, the field of activity in which they will operate. "
| 2016 in% to 2011 |
|
|---|---|
| Manufacturing of medical devices, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours | |
| Manufacture of office equipment and computers | |
| Chemical production | |
| Real estate operations | |
| Extraction of crude oil and natural gas; provision of services in these areas | |
| Research and development | |
| Retail trade, except trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household goods and personal items | |
| Wholesale, including trade through agents, other than trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles | |
| Fishing, fish farming |
Source: Rosstat
Sources of investment financing
"The calculation of investments in fixed assets by sources of financing is carried out by Rosstat without small businesses and the volume of investments that are not observed by direct statistical methods."
If back in 2011 the use of investments was largely due to attracted sources, then by the end of 2016 the situation has changed and the organizations' own funds come to the fore. Today their share is 50.9%.
Source: Rosstat
In monetary terms, it is.
The growth of investments in fixed assets in January-June amounted to 4.8% compared to the same period last year, follows from data published on Thursday by Rosstat; in nominal terms, their size is 5.7 trillion rubles. At the same time, investments have not yet reached the levels of 2015 - they decreased by 1.2% in two years.
Rosstat publishes long series of investment data only in annual terms, which makes it difficult to correctly compare data for six months. Investments in fixed assets fell for three years in a row, having decreased over this period by 12.2%: in 2014, the decline was 1.5%, in 2015 - 10.1%, and in 2016 - 0.9%. In monthly terms, Rosstat does not publish investment dynamics, the latest available quarterly data is for January-March, when investments grew by 2.3% over the corresponding period last year (but seasonally decreased by 61.8% against the fourth quarter). Judging by the data for the half-year, growth in the second quarter may be more than 6% year-on-year, estimates chief analyst at Promsvyazbank Ekaterina Krylova.
Investment data are correct, you can trust them, this is evidence of a gradual economic recovery, says the head of the laboratory for research on inflation and economic growth High school Economics (HSE) Vladimir Bessonov. The production of investment goods is growing, for example, building materials, for which there was a long decline, which has now turned into recovery, the expert notes. He draws an analogy with the behavior of households, for which the analogue of investment can be buying a car. “The production of passenger cars is also gradually growing,” recalls Bessonov. Another indirect sign is the growth of imports, a significant part of which are investment goods, adds Vladimir Bessonov. Imports, according to Rosstat, have been growing since August last year, in the first half of the year it increased by 27.4% over the same period last year.
This "expected" revival in investment, confirms Krylova, it happened "due to a smooth softening of conditions bank lending enterprises, improving the financial situation of companies in general and strengthening the ruble. " However, analysts expected less positive data - approximately plus 3.5-4%, she notes.
The growth of investments in 2017, according to the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, should amount to 2% and stay close to this level in the next three years (according to the baseline scenario of the forecast, social economic development). The reforms, as the department expects, should accelerate investment growth to 3.9%, 6.8% and 9.8% in 2018-2020, respectively. The growth of private market investments is the basic idea of the government's plan to accelerate economic growth, said the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. In his opinion, this should be facilitated by economic predictability and "the formation of mutual trust between business and the state."
Investment growth should indeed become the main driver of GDP (earlier this role was assumed by consumption), noted the Chairman of the Council of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR is preparing economic program for the president) Alexey Kudrin. But this factor will accelerate the economy only in the coming years, he said, then labor productivity should come first. The CSR expects the share of investment in GDP to grow from 18.3% in 2016 to 22.4% in 2025.
GDP in January-June grew by 1.5% versus the first half of last year, Rosstat also estimated on Thursday. In July, industry grew by 1.1% (its growth slowed down after a jump in May-June), by 1% - turnover retail... In the same time real income population continued to decline (by 0.9%) after stopping the fall, which was in June.
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