The president told about the current state of the construction industry self-regulatory organization NP builders of the Siberian region Alexander Savelyev.
Alexander Vladimirovich, you traditionally imagine the analysis of the current state of the construction industry. What trends were characteristic of construction in 2017?
It is impossible to consider the situation in the construction industry outside the context of the country's economy as a whole and the regional economy in particular. Thus, the proportion of the Novosibirsk region in the economy of the Russian Federation for commissioning of homes was 2.4% in 2010, in 2016 - 3%. Investments in fixed assets 1.1 and 1.2%, respectively. At the same time, the population of the region is 1.9% of the total population of the country.
In the Siberian Federal District, the share of the input of residential buildings in the Novosibirsk region was 20.9% in 2010 and 27.6% in 2016, investments - 11.3 and 12%, respectively.
As for the contribution of the construction industry in the region's economy, it is 5% in the structure of the VRP, but a few years ago the share of the industry reached 7%. In profitable consolidated budget This is 7-8 billion rubles. annually.
In terms of GRP per capita in 2016, the Novosibirsk Region held the 18th place in Russia - 356.1 thousand rubles. For this indicator we inferior Krasnoyarsk Territorywhich occupies a leading position in the SFO and the 9th place in Russia, the Irkutsk region - the 16th place in Russia.
In 2015, the Novosibirsk Oblast occupied the 6th place in the introduction of housing per capita in Russia with a coefficient of 0.93. Let me remind you that in 2015, 2 million 585 thousand m 2 housing was introduced in the region. This year has become a record housing for the entire history of the region. In 2016, the input indicator decreased to 2 million 209 thousand m 2, but, nevertheless, the region entered the top ten for the commissioning of housing.
If you analyze the main economic and social sciences of January-October 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, we will see that the scope of work of the work of "Construction" falls by 16.8%, the entry of housing is 21.8%, investments in The fixed capital is 7.1%.
In the construction industry of the Novosibirsk region, the average salary even below the regional level by 24% and is 24,433 rubles. For comparison: in financial and insurance organizations - 59 249 rubles, in education - 26,536 rubles, in real estate operations - 29,126 rubles. This is January-October 2017 data.
Retail turnover is considered to be the traditional criterion for lifting or falling the economy as a whole, and to this indicator you need to navigate, including builders. In the Novosibirsk region in January-October 2017, the growth rates amounted to 0.7% - this is at the level of the SFO and Russia as a whole. But last year, this figure was negative in all federal districts.
You mentioned that the proportion of the Novosibirsk region in the All-Russian introduction of housing decreased.
If we talk about the results of the construction industry in the field housing construction - commissioning common Square Residential buildings at the expense of all sources of financing for the period January-October 2017, in general, this figure is 53.3 million m 2, in the SFO - 4 million 868 thousand m 2, in the Novosibirsk region - 1 million 145 thousand. m 2. Our share in the Russian Federation decreased from 3 to 2%, in SFO - 9%.
The reduction in the entry occurred in the Russian Federation - by 4%, in the SFO - by 12%, in our region - by 22%. I note that the negative growth rates in the construction industry of the region were recorded only in 2016.
Despite the decline in volumes, the Novosibirsk region retains leadership in the SFO, on the 2nd place - the Irkutsk region - 694.2 thousand m 2, hereinafter - the Krasnoyarsk Territory - 675.8 thousand m 2 and the Kemerovo region - 674.7 thousand. m 2.
But the economy is not measured by square meters, it is measured by rubles, therefore, in the process of assessing the effectiveness of the construction industry, the cost indicators are very important. So, in 2016, in the Russian Federation, the scope of work of work "Construction" in value terms amounted to 6,184.4 billion rubles, in SFO - 599.1 billion rubles, in the Novosibirsk region - 36.1 billion rubles.
The fall was under the Russian Federation - 4.3%, according to SFO - 2.2%, in the region - 26.1%. This is in 2016. In 2017, only data for January-October is available. The rate of fall is 16.8%.
Of course, the volume of funds according to the activities of "Construction" are associated with the commissioning of housing. For example, the Krasnoyarsk Territory is developing 146.1 billion rubles. and builds 675 thousand m 2 housing, the Irkutsk region - 136 billion rubles, handed over 694.2 thousand m 2, and in the Novosibirsk region at the amount of funds 75.4 billion rubles, although I consider this figure incorrect, in fact It is less, built 1 million 145 thousand m 2 housing. This means that a significant part of the funds that is involved in the turn is aimed at housing, 75-80% of all means are not bridges, tunnels, industrial engineering and roads, and housing.
Moreover, four years in a row, since 2014, the indicator of the volume of work carried out according to the type of construction activities decreased. For ten months, 2017 decreased by 16.8% compared to the same period last year, and the commissioning of residential buildings was reduced by 22%. And the huge numbers of the construction hide - more than 4 million m 2 - should not please, but to alarming.
The reason for the fall in the housing input is the reduction of income of the population.
As for remuneration, the average monthly nominal accrued salary in the Novosibirsk region for the period January-October 2017 is 32,016 rubles, despite the fact that the average in Russia - 38,033 rubles. This means that we are chronically lagging behind the average level of Russia by 19%. This situation is preserved for about 7-8 recent yearsAnd this, given the fact that in the Novosibirsk region the district coefficient is 25%.
Average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations in the regions of Siberian federal District For the period January-September 2017 amounted to 33,032 rubles. Krasnoyarsk Territory leads - 39,743 rubles, then Tomsk, Irkutsk regions, Zabaykali region - with a salary above 36 thousand rubles, the Republic of Khakassia - 33,562 rubles. And only then the Novosibirsk region, which, although it has a good growth rates on wages - about 108%, but lags behind all of the above regions. It should be noted that all these subjects are commodity regions.
Monetary incomes for the state of the population for ten months of 2017 in Russia amounted to 31,573 rubles, in SFO - 23,051 rubles, in the Novosibirsk region - 25,517 rubles. As in the nominal average wage and income lag from the average Russian level in our region is about 19%.
And in income - expenses. The lowest indicators in the SFO in 2016.
And in 2017 the dynamics real income The population in the SFO showed a negative dynamics.
At the same time, in the Novosibirsk region, the share of the population with income below subsistence minimum exceeds 16%, given the population of the region, it is about 400 thousand people.
Share of families who are available to buy apartments in the mortgage, in our region in 2016 was estimated at 13.4% of the total population. I think that this year the situation was not fundamentally changed. It is about 200 thousand people from the number of economically active population. In the Russian Federation, the share of such families is slightly higher - 13.9%.
For clarity: in the structure of the population's expenses in October 2017, the share of the cost of buying real estate decreased by 2.5%, and the costs of compulsory payments and contributions - increased by 52.7%. In January-September 2017, only 1% of the regions of the region came to buy real estate.
Today, most apartments are purchased with mortgage loans.
As for the initial housing issued in the field of mortgage loans - on November 1, 2017 - 34 billion 657 million rubles., It is 20,2206 credit. For ten months of 2017, the growth was in pieces - 19%, in rubles - 26%. Mortgage Thereby, really, supports the construction market.
But at the same time in the structure of loans received by borrowers in the region, both physical and legal entitiesIn 2016, the share of construction accounts for about 3%.
Over the ten months of 2017, DDU is registered 18% less compared to the same period last year. Signs of overproduction of apartments are obvious. Currently, 90 thousand apartments are being built in Novosibirsk, and about 30-40 thousand apartments remain unfolded. To implement all the finished apartments you need at least 2-3 years without the start of new construction.
On the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, a plan for the transition from equity construction to project financing has been developed. In your opinion, can banks be able to replace private investors in the construction market?
Now private investors are attracted to the construction of at least 35-40 billion rubles. After the transition to project financing, this money will be attracted to the turnover, and housing lending does not exceed 2 billion rubles. In this case, profitability investment Capital The accommodation averages 15%, but in project financing the bank rate ranges from 16% per annum. This is an economically disabling model.
And now the construction business is not highly profitable. For the first nine months of 2017 the amount of damages construction organizations region amounted to 409 million rubles, organizations for operations with real estate - 1 149 million rubles. For comparison: Profit of agricultural organizations - 3 billion 456 million rubles. - This is a brilliant result processing production - 12.5 billion rubles, 11.8 billion rubles. Received wholesale and retail.
The profitability of the goods sold in construction was only 2.6%, the average region - 5.2%, and in agriculture - 16.8%. Builders make sense to change the type of activity on agriculture!
Accordingly, the index of physical investment in fixed assets in January-September 2017 decreased and amounted to only 98% compared to the same period last year. For 2016 - 130 billion 280 million rubles, in January-September 2017 - 84,546 million rubles. Unfortunately, this is not the best indicator, given that in construction more than 60% of investments provide state order.
Unfortunately, the industry maintains a negative dynamics of assessments of financial indicators - financial resources, accessibility borrowed moneyas well as investment activity. It remains high rise in prices for building materials. And the fall in government orders only worsens the situation in the construction industry and gives the recession of the recession in 2018.
In connection with the adoption of legislative initiatives, including new edition federal Law No. 214-FZ, there is a tendency to divide the construction market. Strong and sustainable companies that work for a long time on the market and have their own design and production facilities will survive in this market and develop. In the future, we will see the market for large vertically integrated companies. There will be no place for developers of one project or random companies with one plot or with permits for the construction of small volumes.
The overall decline in the volume of housing in Russia, expected at the end of 2017, cannot be called critical: after the "bottom" of the crisis, the industry began to recover.
Priority projects for personal responsibility
In some regions, the process of restoring the construction market went a little faster, in others a little slower. As it will flow, it depends not only on the pre-crisis state of the industry and the state of the state, but also from right action Places managers. By the way, after the recent meeting of the Presidium of the Council under the President Russian Federation According to strategic development and priority projects, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instructed the heads of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation participating in the implementation of the priority projects "Mortgage and rent", "" Formation of a comfortable urban environment ", to ensure personal control over the achievement of indicators for housing entry. The introduction of personal responsibility of regions leaders for the successful implementation of project projects should increase the activity of the authorities of the subjects.
Construction market: from falling to restoration
In August 2017, at a meeting on the development of housing construction, the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev noted that the well-being of the construction industry "reflects, naturally, all the processes that go in the economy as a whole. And the demand narrowed somewhat over the past few years, so in 2016 was introduced slightly less than in 2015. " The main reason for the current situation is the passage of the rehabilitation period. "In general, not large decline Input capacities, houses are not critical for the industry, especially since the state stimulates the construction of standard housing (it is about housing class "Economy") and its share is growing in the market for the second year in a row. And this in fact, maybe the most important thing, "the head of government stressed.
Leaders and outsauders
If you look at the results of housing construction in 2016, it is seen not too much a decrease in volumes in relation to 2015 (80 million sq.m, i.e. 6.5% less). Nevertheless, general trends are not so bad - in 2005, Russia commissioned only 35 million square meters. meters.
According to the results of 2016, leaders in the volume of housing entry in Russia were: the Moscow region - 8,823 million sq.m., Krasnodar Territory - 4.56 million sq.m., Moscow - 3.362 million sq.m.
In the first half of 2017, St. Petersburg entered the list of leaders, pusing the capital from the third place. The honorary list is headed by the Moscow region, who has been commissioning 3 million sq.m for six months. Next follows the Krasnodar region from 2 million square meters. m. The indicators of the Northern Capital - 1.5 million sq.m. And it is almost 30% more than in the same period of 2016. It is worth noting that on the dynamics of the absolute increase in housing input for the specified period, St. Petersburg has become an absolute leader. Commenting on the indicators achieved, Vice-Governor Igor Albin, who oversees the building block, noted that "developers and developers of St. Petersburg feel confident and stable, and the city government is interested in the further comfortable management of the construction business."
According to general indicators, 28 million square meters were commissioned in the first half of this year, and the expected indicator of 2017 - 75-76 million "squares" (by the way, at the beginning of the year about 80 million "squares" were preposed). It is important to note that the main entry is usually falling on the fourth quarter, that is, the results will correctly evaluate the results of the year.
Nevertheless, so far it is possible to observe the continuation of the reduction in housing entry compared to the first half of 2016: in Moscow - by 39.2%, the Sverdlovsk region - by 22.3%, the Novosibirsk region - by 21.4%, the Republic of Bashkortostan - By 11.9%, Krasnodar Territory - by 3.8%.
The most notable decline occurred in the Magadan region (2.6 thousand sq.m), the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (7.7 thousand sq.m), the Jewish Autonomous Republic (14.6 thousand square meters), the Murmansk region (16.1 thousand kv.m), as well as Kamchatka Territory (16.9 thousand sq.m).
However, in 27 regions of the country, all prerequisites have been created to fulfill the housing application plan in 2017. In order to stimulate supply and supply in the construction market, the state stimulates banks to issuing loans. "Banks give out more and more mortgage loans in quantity, and by volume. Only for seven months of this year half a million loans per almost three million rubles were issued. This means that the housing issue is solved more actively," said D. Medvedev. One of the leaders in the number of mortgage issued loans the last two years in the Central Federal District is the Tula region. Now in the region there is an increase in the volume of housing construction, although a steady decline has been observed in the region a few years ago. The situation has changed after the arrival of the new leader of the region Alexei Dumin, who picked up the "challenge" of the Prime Minister - Enter personal responsibility of regions leaders for the successful implementation of projects. If in 2013, 300 thousand square meters were introduced in the region. Housing, then in 2016 Introduced 622 thousand "squares", and in 2017 it is planned to go to a mark of 650 thousand. This was facilitated by the government's government support mortgage lending, Economy Housing Construction and Social Program Implementation. The key role in the mortgage lending market was played by the Regional Housing Fund and Mortgage Lending, established by the Government of the Tula region. As of August 1, the Tula region issued 5025 mortgage loans in the amount of 8.6 billion rubles, which is 13% more than in the same period last year. According to the forecast estimates, in 2017 the number of mortgage loans issued in the Tula region will reach 10 thousand on total About 17 billion rubles. Very good indicator for the region.
Price "Square"
If we talk about prices, then according to such an average market value one square meter, Ahead of all comes Moscow. Here is the most expensive "square" - 90.4 thousand rubles. The cheapest square meter remains in Kalmykia - 26.01 thousand rubles. These indicators are established on the second half of 2017 by the corresponding order of the Ministry of Establishment. By the same order, the average market value of the square meter in Russia was established in the amount of 38.32 thousand rubles. It should be understood that this value is used by the executive authorities to calculate the size of social benefits for all categories of citizens who said social payments Purchases (construction) housing at the expense of funds federal budget. What concerns real value Square meter under purchase and sale transactions, it is slightly higher than the indicators established by the Ministry of Education. For example, in Moscow, the price of "square" reaches 200 thousand rubles, and in St. Petersburg - a little more than 100 thousand.
Causes and forecasts
In 2017, in most regions, at home, which began to be built back in 2014-2015, which were very difficult for the economy. Then many developer preferred to complete the started construction sites and take a small pause, having having a bookmark of new objects. In general, experts believe that the decline in housing will be observed also next year. This can be explained by the fact that the average construction period apartment house It is 2-2.5 years, and the preparation of the documentation necessary for the commissioning of the house, and a year and a half. Another reason that caused a decrease in construction volumes, according to the Minister of Construction and Housing and Communal Services, Mikhail Me, became amendments to the law "On participation in equity construction"that tightened the requirements for financial Sustainability Developers working with shareholders. It is possible that parts of the companies will need time to adapt to work in new conditions, which will affect the rates of work plans. But this slowdown will be only a temporary phenomenon. The development of mortgage lending, reducing rates, social programs and state support of the industry will overcome the mark of 100 million sq. M. Already by 2020.
From the beginning of 2017, the volume of housing construction in Stavropol decreased by 22.4%. Such a significant fall director of BCS Prime Minister in Stavropol Stanislav Grigoriev believes natural. The tendency to reduce the construction of new housing is observed this year throughout the country. In general, in Russia, the volume of construction fell by 6.4%, and only in 32 regions is marked.
The first cause of the expert calls an excess of offers of ready-made apartments in the market. The second reason is the state mortgage subsidy, which led to an increase in demand for secondary housing.
"The cheapening of the mortgage has not yet been providing developers of expected support due to the fact that the demand for secondary housing has seriously increased. In 2015-2016, the market of new buildings was supported by subsidies interest ratesNow, as the balance of the market is achieved, an increasingly attractive segment for those who take a mortgage becomes "secondary". The developers naturally respond to this process with a reduction in the input areas, "said the expert.
Why not wait for records from developers
Many experts argue that the coming The state programs for subsidizing the mortgage rate will seriously affect the demand and wrap the industry of industrial housing. In fact, the reduction in the volume of entry of high-rise buildings is associated with other factors.
Lowering game
Even before the Rosstat of the results by the volume of minstroy forecast entered in 2016 and significantly reduced the figures for the next three years. In a new version, a bar in 90 million square meters. The market will only overcome in 2019.
The expected outcome of 2017 barely exceeds 80 million square meters. m instead of the previously planned 93 million square meters. However, even this minimum (provided, of course, its achievements) in the current situation will be a worthy result.
Last year's data (79.8 million square meters) did not meet expectations: real volumes were 6.5% modest than in 2015. The gap with the figures of 2014 is also significant.
Source: Rosstat
In 2016, the segment of individual house-building asked. Industrial accommodation with varying success balanced at the level of the previous year.
A number of subjects even exceeded records of record 2015. Among them, Crimea and Sevastopol, almost all subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District (except Stavropol and Karachay-Cherkessia), Volga FD (except Chuvashia, Perm region, Kirov, Orenburg and Samara regions), as well as 23 more regions.
At the same time, almost half of the total area of \u200b\u200bthe housing introduced in the country accounted for 12 subjects: the Moscow region (11.1%), Krasnodar Territory (5.7%), Moscow (4.2%), St. Petersburg (3.9%, ) Of the Republic of Bashkortostan (3.4%) and Tatarstan (3.0%), Rostov (2.9%), Novosibirsk (2.8%), Leningrad (2.7%), Sverdlovsk (2.6%), Samara region (2.3%) and the Republic of Dagestan (2.3%). However, the leaders' subjects did not reach their last year's indicators: the backlog in different regions was from 2% to 15%.
The reduction in volume will continue in the coming year, since new construction projects It became much smaller. Even already issued permits for the construction still do not guarantee the start of work.
According to the head of the sales department "BFE-DEVELOPMENT" Svetlana Denisova, to some regions, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, the reduction in construction volumes will even benefit: will help balance the market.
We do not need much
For buyers, the market situation seems paradoxical: at the peak of the crisis in the country there was a huge number of housing. Developers beat even the records of the Soviet period. Now, when the conjuncture is gradually normalized, the volume of input is reduced.
It would seem, paradox, and only. However, in fact there is no paradox. A cycle of development of the project in real estate (from the acquisition of the site before commissioning an object), as is well known, takes about 4-5 years. And this means that in past years, objects approved in the pre-crisis period, when and demand, and buying ability were high. But the situation has changed rapidly, and it was impossible to minimize the projects. As a result, it was built much more than really could buy.
- In the 1980s, 65 million square meters were administered on average in the USSR. m housing, after which the failure was submitted transitional period and economic reforms- So commented on the "construction.ru" decline in housing input management partner Metricium Group Maria Lithinetskaya. - Sustainable recovery of pre-crisis indicators (that is, before the 1991 crisis) occurred quite recently, in 2013. Thus, the construction industry took 22 years to recover from the decline in the transition period.
According to the expert, there was no high activity in recent years due to the optimism of developers caused by the rapid restoration of the economy after the stereotane crisis of 2008-2010. The results of the high developer activity of the post-crisis period we observed in 2014-2016.
The record housing entry rates in recent years, which were told about how to achieve, in fact, led only to overproduction, which was noticeably in 2015. If such a situation would be prevented for several more years, the square meters simply depreciated, which would be a real catastrophe for all market participants: from housing owners to developers and banks.
In fact, the current reduction in housing input is not a symptom of "diseases" of the real estate market, but rather a sign of his recovery. The abyss formed in the past few years between the level of demand and suggestions will be able to reduce.
The market stabilization will require time. In the meantime, we continue to observe the drop in demand against the background of an explicit oversupply of the offer. Last year, the number of transactions on average in the country decreased by 30% compared with 2015. The fall continues in the new year, the Rosreestr states: in January, it was concluded by 1% less transactions than for the same period last year.
This trend is felt first of all regions: the center is still saves internal and external migration. But here are more and more vacant and unkind residential areas.
Even repaid apartments are empty. The record holder for such objects is the recent all-Russian leader in the introduction of housing - the Moscow region (3 million square meters. M). In this region, the most empty apartments in Khimki, Balashikha and Krasnogorsk. Buyers have invested in these objects at the stage of the pit, planning later sell them or pass. As a result, the housing was completed, and the applicants never found ...
Prices are preparing for takeoff
If half a year ago it was possible to talk about a possible reduction in the cost of a square meter, now at best it can be expected that prices will remain at the same level.
- There was such a situation in the housing market when all experts are simply lost in guesses - explains the Senior Analyst of the company BSA Alexey Zubik. - Someone involves a price reduction, someone is an increase, but everyone converges that housing prices will depend on the incomes of the population and their relationship with inflation.
Buyers will no longer become more. And it is not surprising: the crisis has not yet ended, the labor market is still a storm, and the income of the population leaves much to be desired. Most of those who had what to invest in real estate has long made it. The rest may well afford to choose and claim proposals with a more attractive price.
In high competition for the client, developers can offer discounts or special conditions. But many experts do not exclude another scenario. So, investment analyst GK "Finam" Timur Nigmatullin Forecasts the increase in the cost of housing on the primary and secondary market by 5-7%.
Price adjustment is associated with legislative novels.
- Amendments to 214-ФЗ are aimed at tightening the regulation of developers, a number of innovations are related to financial issues, therefore the cost of implementing projects will increase that, accordingly, it will push prices to grow, - I am sure the Marketing Director of Mirland Development Corporation Elena Valuev.
In her opinion, in 2017, in principle, it will be released less projectsDespite the fact that in 2016, 120 hectares of land was purchased.
So, as you can see, the new construction reality is formed right now, and what will happen the year for the industry, it will become clear to the beginning of spring.
Maria Milyukhina
Photo: stroi.mos.ru and construction.ru
The leaders of the largest russian companies The production of building materials expressed concern about the decline in the pace of construction over the past years. Despite the noticeable revival of the economy, the consequences of the past economic crisis make yourself felt.
Based on statistical data, the results of the research of the expert commission, which pointed out the deterioration of the construction conditions in the second half of 2017. It was suggested that due to the level of level material costs and an increase in energy tariffs, construction conditions tend to deteriorate and over the years, thus delaying the restoration in the construction industry indefinitely.
This means that due to the decline in sales in warehouses, new building materials and funds spent on their production will have to be taken in the loss graph. If income level decreases construction companies, Waiting for hundreds and thousands of qualified domestic specialists will remain without work.
From the above statistics, it can be seen that 78% of the manufacturers of building materials in the ninth time are experiencing the fall in the production of the main construction assortment, which has already led to the definancing of scientific research on the creation of new materials and innovative technologies.
Marketing services of half leading manufacturers expect the next decline in sales over the nearest quarter. The situation is exacerbated by growing tariffs on the main energy and increase in prices for high-quality raw materials. These factors create an additional load on the construction sector, despite the fact that the construction of the last two years is in a state of decline. In addition, some organizations have declared a decrease in state-building, over four years by more than 50%.
Most of general directors Major Construction Companies of Moscow confirm that the construction industry continues to face tightening conditions from trading companies. The situation can stabilize with an increase in government orders for construction. At the very least, it will be possible to save jobs, but there can be no speech about the noticeable growth of production indicators. Therefore, it is necessary to convince politicians and businessmen in the need to grow investment in the construction sector. With the correct formulation of the case, 1 invested ruble will bring real earnings in 2.83 rubles.
The main findings of the study
- 89% of manufacturers reported that in the 3rd quarter of 2017, they do not expect a noticeable improvement in the construction industry.
- 91% of building contractors recorded a record low number of orders and forced to suspend some social programs.
- 75% of producers expressed concern about the growth of prices for raw materials and energy, as a result of which the retail prices were forced to raise.
Marketers see the reason for the unclaiming of new building materials in the insufficient awareness of potential customers. The consumer is alarming the cost specified on the label, excluding the desire to get acquainted with the technical parameters and the advantages of the building material.
