According to the company "BelBusinessConsalting" conducted in August 2017, the marketing research of the residential real estate market in Russia, in 2016 the volume of housing in Russia amounted to 80.2 million square meters. m, which is 6.0% less than in 2015. The greatest decline in input is observed in the segments of individual residential buildings, hostels and apartment low-rise blocked houses. At the same time, there is an increase in the construction of economy-class residential buildings.
The largest input of housing in 2016 in absolute terms was recorded in the Moscow region, Krasnodar Territory, St. Petersburg and the Republic of Bashkortostan. The least of all housing in Russia in 2016 was introduced in the Murmansk region, the Magadan region and the Chukotka Autonomous District - in these regions, the entry of housing did not exceed 100 thousand sq.m.
The total area of \u200b\u200bresidential premises occurring on average per person in Russia, in 2016 amounted to 24.5 square meters. meter, which is 2-3 times less than in developed countries (In Europe, an average of about 60 sq.m. per person, in the US, an average of about 70 sq.m. per person).
The most secured housing regions are Moscow, Tver and Novgorod region. The least secured housing regions are the Republic of Tyva, the Republic of Ingushetia and the Chechen Republic.
The leader of the Russian construction market in 2016 was the company SETL GROUP from St. Petersburg, which introduced 1.046 million sq.m. Housing, which is 49.4% more than in 2016. Also in the top three leaders of the Russian market in 2016 included a group of LSR (789 thousand square meters) and GC Absolute (562 thousand square meters). The most important events that will have a strong influence on the placement of the players of the first echelon of the Russian construction market has become the acquisition of the Morton RIC GK company and SU-155 GC Sanation.
From 2013 to 2015, prices in the housing market there was a rise in prices, but in 2016 the situation has changed - average prices for living spaces decreased by 1.4% to 54.04 thousand rubles per 1 sq.m. At the same time, the main factor in reducing average prices for residential real estate in Russia in 2016 was the decline in prices in the secondary market.
Maximum accommodation prices in early 2017 were recorded in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kamchatka Territory. The cheapest accommodation in Russia at the beginning of 2017 could be bought in the Bryansk region, Stavropol Territory and the Republic of Kalmykia.
The consequences of a negative geopolitical background greatly influenced the development russian economy, in particular, to the construction industry. First of all, this is due to the fall in the incomes of the population, with a reduction in the volume of financing of construction, the increase in value borrowed money, complication of access to credit resources. At the end of 2017, a decrease in housing entry to 75 million square meters is predicted. m. And in the future, the decline in housing entry is expected over the next 2-3 years.
In more detail about the status and prospects of the residential real estate market in Russia, it is possible to learn from the studies of the "residential real estate market in Russia" by following the link http://belconsult.ru/index.php?option\u003dcom_remository&itemid\u003d36&func\u003dfileinfo&id\u003d 249.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD Research Department presented a final overview of the commercial real estate market for 2017 and preliminary forecasts for market development in 2018.
According to experts, in the market commercial real estate There has been a change of cycle. After 4 years of decline, the real estate market pushed out of the bottom and in 2018 there may be a turn to the ascending cycle. Despite the moderate economic growth rates, immovable assets will show advanced results. The exception will be a new construction that will be modest in 2018 and 2019, since during the recession, the projects began to be frozen, and new projects were not planned.
In 2017, the commercial real estate market sold down. Against the background of declined rates, the volume of transactions increased markedly - almost 2 million square meters of offices changed tenants. The market begins to warm up, but not at the expense of speculative growth, but at the expense structural changes In demand. This means that price spreads will continue to grow, and the gap between successful and unsuccessful projects will increase. In the coming years, we will witness structural changes among real estate users. In the office I. trading sector Industries are formed, demonstrating an advanced development and lagging.
Grow consumer spending on individual groups of goods and services
The structure of consumption will begin to change in favor of a greater share of the service sector. This means that the effectiveness of traditional anchor functions will decrease in the shopping center. In addition, the fastest growing industries are formed: Financial Sector, Tourism, medical services and catering. Traditional "drivers" of the consumer market (clothing, shoes, electronics) will demonstrate the minimum growth rates. This can lead to a change in the "anchor" model for shopping centers.
In 2018, the most acute before banking system There will be a problem of bad debts, including in real estate. In construction, operations with real estate and trade, the share of searched debt is as of December 2017, 17%, 23% and 12%, respectively, with an average economy in the level of 7%. The structure of the investment market will remain the same russian investors It will continue to dominate the market. Bank rehanging can increase the offer investment assets On the market. In 2017. russian market Real estate has shown an increase in investment in the level of 27%. And although before the record 2013, when investments exceeded 10 billion euros, experts believe that the investment market came out of the recession and entered the growth phase.
2018 will be relatively calm, since according to the tradition of the presidential election, the investment activity is low, but in 2019 there is a significant increase in the volume of transactions, which will also be affected by the increase in the value of assets, and the implementation of postponed demand.
Foreign investment continues to occupy a small share in Russia, and this situation will continue for the coming years. In the real estate market, domestic investors are still dominated. This situation has developed, starting in 2009, although it is European investors formed the market in 2004-2007. According to experts, the share of foreign investment in Russia in the coming years will not exceed 20%, as long as the market does not appear again for foreign capital.
Office real estate
Despite the fact that many of the first three quarters of 2017 lagged behind the 2016 indicators, at the end of 2017, the situation was recovered. The market of offices in Moscow is now at the bottom. In 2018, a slight increase in rental rates is expected, bound primarily with inflationary processes and leaning from the market. best offers. Real estate is the main resource for reducing costs for companies encountered on the one hand with an increase in product costs, and on the other hand, with compression of effective demand.
In 2017, almost all projects were completed in 2015-2016. The decline of new construction is projected in 2018-2020. In 2018, the pace of new construction will remain at the same level. 2019 will bring a slight increase in new construction. Thus, in 2018-2020 is expected low level construction activity with a total volume of 1 million square meters of office space with an appropriate tendency to reduce the vacancy level. As expected, according to the results of 2017, the total volume of new construction amounted to 408,000 sq. M., 240,000 square meters of them are the area of \u200b\u200btwo towers in Moscow City. 4 office buildings were introduced, one of which, not having time to enter the market, was in demand.
A record high demand for offices returned to pre-crisis indicators. In four quarters of 2017, 2900 new transactions were concluded by a total of approximately 1.91 million sq.m.
Return to the pre-crisis levels of demand is associated with the implementation of deferred demand at the low market, the activity of the state. corporations. Business adapted to the new economic reality, optimized strategies and is ready to make decisions on the stabilized market. In addition, the five-year period ended after the previous surge of movements in 2012. Large transactions (from 5 000 sq. M) are 15% of demand. This acquisition of several buildings is entirely and separate blocks in business centers. The most active and concerned in the crossing industry in 2017 are the companies of the IT and software sectors (21%), banks and finance (13%) and Retail (eleven%). After record high demand in 2017, a small drop in demand for office premises is expected in 2018 and in 2019 the figure will be held at the same level.
In the first half of the year, a high negative absorption was noted, however, according to the results of 2017, the situation was recovered and the demand for additional office premises will continue to grow.
"Moscow-City" is the most sought-after submarines of Moscow in 2017. While many submenses are less attractive, offices with a central location, such as Scholovsky's submenses, Belorussky and City are increasingly in demand. The most attractive is the submarines "Moscow City". The fourth quarter of 2017 was a great influence on high absorption in Strnik City. The supply volume increased by 239,000 square meters, and the vacancy remained at the same level due to high demand. Thus, as soon as new high quality areas appeared in City good rates and the conditions, the demand immediately covered the proposal.
The vacancy in the market as a whole (in the class "A", "B +" and "V-") is stable. In 2018-2020, Cushman & Wakefield analysts expect a decline in vacancies in the class "A". Due to consistently low new office construction and record-highly high transactions in the last 5 years, the vacancy began to decline by the end of the year and will remain at the level of 12.5% \u200b\u200bin 2018. According to the results of 2017, against the background of the negative annual absorption and the high proportion of new construction in the class "A", the number of free office space exceeded the figure of 2016. Free high-quality office premises of a different pattern and in varying degrees of readiness now there are practically in all parts of Moscow. However, the closer the location to the center, the lower the level of the vacancy.
The weighted average ruble equivalent of rental rates on transactions concluded in 2017 amounted to 17,848 rubles per square meter per year. The weighted average dollar equivalent of rental rates - $ 307 per square meter per year. This is the historical minimum rental rate for offices in Moscow. In 2018-2020, Cushman & Wakefield experts expect an increase in rental rates at the inflation rate due to the ruble stable course and the lack of economic prerequisites for the intensification of the market.
The share of dollar rental contracts as a whole at the office market has updated the historical minimum (the figure is gradually decreasing from 98% in 2014, 18% in 2015 and up to 7% in 2017). The share of dollar treaties in 2017 in the class "B" amounted to only 1.2%. The share of dollar lease agreements in the class "A" - 23% (the figure rose respect to last year, when the contracts in the currency amounted to 18%).
Trade property
The pace of new construction in the trade real estate market slowed down. In 2018, entering new areas will remain low, and the focus of the development shifts towards small shopping centers - objects of the district scale. The first positive changes have become noticeable against the background of the market recovery - a gradual decline in vacancies, the beginning of the growth of the Rent's Prime Indicator.
The decline in construction activity is observed both in Moscow and in Russia as a whole. For 2017, it was added twice retail spaceWhich in 2016 - 16 shopping facilities with a total leased area of \u200b\u200b616,000 sq. M - which is a record low value for 10 years. The attention of developers has been drawn more to existing objects than the construction of new ones - reconnection and expansion of existing shopping centers are underway. Thus, in the regions of Russia, the main proportion of new construction (almost 60%) has accounted for new phases of existing projects.
The era of superregional and regional malls passed. The growth in this format will now rather organic (by expanding existing medium and large objects). The construction of district and local trading facilities is the most optimal strategy in existing conditions Market - N. large squares Quickly filled with tenants, daily purchases are resistant to the crisis period and are not subject to competition from growing online sales. Such an approach also proves its success in Western markets. For example, in the US, small formats of trading facilities are the most actively growing segment in recent years.
At the end of 2017, the average size of the existing shopping center is 36,800 sq. M, while the average size of the trading facility planned to open in 2018 is only 28,500 sq.m.
Market structure in the size of trading facilities (all regions of the Russian Federation, including Moscow)
The tendency to shift the focus of developers from the construction of large objects on the projects of a smaller area is obvious when analyzing the structure of the projects planned to commission. The share of small district shopping centers with an area of \u200b\u200bup to 20,000 square meters is more dynamic than in the number of objects and in the summary area. Retailers as well as developers are not lagging behind the modern realities of the market, actively developing mini-formats ("My Auchan", AB Daily, " Child's world", Leroy Merlin, etc.).
In the next two years, the restoration of construction activity in the market of retail space is not expected. Mainly, small shopping centers and 1-2 large projects per year will be opened. In 2018, new construction will remain at the level of 2017. It is most likely that only one large object will open - "Kashirsk Plaza" (GLA - 71 000 sq. M).
Retailers are in search of new effective formats. Large operators continue to be moderate expansion. The most actively developing market players are product networks. Active development has been relatively new for the Russian market the Fudhollov and gastrostat format. IN this moment In Moscow, there are 8 objects of this format, new projects are increasingly announced, including in the composition of the shopping centers operators (TC "Fifth Avenue", "Nikolskaya Plaza", shopping centers "Golden Babylon"). Fudhollas become traffic-forming tenants and new attraction centers for trading facilities. Grocery retailers previously worked in several formats (hypermarket, supermarket, minimarket, etc.) refuse to develop the least successful concepts. So, "Okay" sold the stores of the supermarket format, and X5 put it on sale "Crossroads Express". Russian brands announce the plans of international expansion - "Leonardo", "Dublby", "Tashir Pizza", GULLIVER, ALEX FITNESS. Some international retailers who came to the Russian market in 2017 immediately began active expansion - the Japanese brand Miniso announced plans to enter the regions and the opening of 100 stores until 2019, Under Armour, in addition to Moscow, launched shops in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.
2017 was a period of stabilization of the situation in the market of commercial premises. Commercial conditions as a whole in the market remained at the same level, and the "Prime" segment showed the first signs of growth, reflecting the growing confidence of market players. The most popular rental structure in Moscow shopping centers remains a combined lease rate - either minimum is used as rent fixed paymentor% of the trader turnover depending on what is higher. "Clean"% of the tenant turnover as a rent (without a fixed payment) is rarely used, mainly for large anchor tenants (hypermarkets, entertainment, cinemas). Practice varies in various shopping center - in some shopping centers These categories also have a fixed lease rate. Average interest rate It vary between 12% -15% for the trading gallery operators, 3-7% for large anchor tenants.
Rental rates in "Prime" shopping centers *
| Type of tenant | MIN. | Max |
| Hypermarket (Food Anchor) | - | 8 000 |
| DIY hypermarkets | - | 10 000 |
| Entertainment Center | - | 14 000 |
| Cinema | 6 000 | 12 000 |
| Fashion-Anchor. | - | 15 000 |
| Shops shopping gallery | 20 000 | 180 000 |
| Fitness clubs | 6 500 | 10 000 |
| Restaurants, Coffee Shops / Cafe | 20 000 | 100 000 |
| Food Court. | 75 000 | 150 000 |
* There are averaged rates for successful trade facilities in Moscow. They can only be used for approximate evaluation and can vary greatly depending on the shopping center.
Warehouse real estate
2017 has become a turning point for the Moscow region market. Against the background of long-term sustainably high demand in the second half of 2017, a decrease in the share of vacant space began, a decrease in the average rental rate was stopped. This has a positive effect on the activity of developers. Announcements of new projects appeared, but they are expected to be implemented not speculatively, but after signing the preliminary lease agreement or selling warehouse space. In Moscow and the regions, high demand for warehouse space remains. The share of vacant space in the Moscow region is reduced. Developers in the warehouse market prefer Built-to-suit speculative construction. In 2018, the trend is preserved. However, the sharp growth of bets and the reduction of the share of vacant areas during stable demand is not necessary. The market will remain the tenant market, and the tenant will be ready to wait for the warehouse satisfying its requirements at a suitable place, and not rent an area in an old uncomfortable storage complex. In the regions, we also observe the orientation on the Built-to-Suit. Back in 2016, the pace of speculative construction was reduced there and the rental rates stabilized, and in the St. Petersburg market there is a shortage of warehouse space due to which the rental rates in this region are significantly higher than Moscow. In the regions, as in the metropolitan market, the trend will continue. Developers will build less speculatively, preferring to start construction after concluding a preliminary lease agreement or sale, lease rates will remain stable, the share of vacancies will slowly decrease.
In the warehouse market of the Moscow region, the proportion of vacant areas is reduced against the background of the minimum rental rate and low construction activity. The share of vacancies in the Moscow region at the end of 2017 began to decline. Developers refuse speculative construction and offered to build storage complexes under the customer. 2018 Reduced the share of vacancies to preserve, but the decline will not be rapidly. In the Moscow region, many conveniently located build-to-suit sites, and customers are ready to wait and get fully satisfying their warehouse requirements, and empty squares remain free.
In 2017, the requested average rental rate amounted to 3,300 rubles. per sq. M per year, which is 10% lower than the same indicator of 2016. We do not predict a decline or increase in rental rates in 2018. For part of large developers, these rates are comfortable.
In 2017, 463,000 square meters of new warehouse space were commissioned, which is 45% lower than the same indicator of 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2017, 185,000 square meters of new warehouse space were introduced, which is 40% of the national annual growth. Low rental rates and a large number of free warehouse space did not stimulate developers to complete the construction of objects under construction and begin new. The situation has improved in the fourth quarter, when the share of vacant areas began to decline. In 2018, construction rates will increase. About 700,000 square meters of high-quality warehouse space will be built in the Moscow region, 60% of which are already concluded lease and purchase contracts.
The distribution of warehouse space in the metropolitan region does not change throughout the long period, but in the medium term it may change. This is due to the end of the first stage of the reconstruction of the Gorky, Kaluga and Yaroslavl highway, the decline in land prices for the construction of production and logistics complexes, reconstruction of the road network between TTK and Moscow Ring Road in Moscow, the growth of the activity of developers.
- Simferopol - 18.9% (4,047,000 sq.m);
- Novorzanskoye - 15.7% (3,357,000 sq.m);
- Dmitrovskoe - 14.0% (3,001,000 sq.m).
In 2017, 1,229,000 square meters of high-quality warehouse space were rented and purchased, which corresponds to the same indicator of 2016. The significant difference in demand 2017 from 2016 is to reduce the number of transactions. Compared to 2016, the number of transactions decreased by 25%. In 2017, the warehouses of a large square were in demand. The size of the average query in 2017 grew by 25% and amounted to 16,000 sq.m. This was one of the reasons for the low rates of reducing the share of free space in the region. Without finding a ready-made warehouse of the required area, the consumer concluded an agreement on the Built-to-suit. According to Cushman & Wakefield forecasts, demand for warehouse space will continue at the 2016-2017 level. In 2018, about 1,200,000 square meters will be rented and purchased.
The share of retail chains in the structure of leased and purchased warehouse space in 2017 was 51%. In this segment, there are traditionally transactions on the largest squares. The average size of the transaction with retail networks in 2017 amounted to 30,000 square meters, which is almost 47% higher than the average market. It should be noted the increase in the share of the "Clothing and Shoes" segment from 5% in 2016 to 30% in 2017 and the decrease in the shares of the segment "Food and Drinks" from 27% in 2016 to 12% to 2017. Cushman & Wakefield analysts at the end of 2016 The tendency of growth in demand for warehouse space by production and logistics companies in 2017 was continued. After the growth of their share in 2016 to 18% and 16%, respectively, in 2017 their share decreased to the figures of 2015.
In the regions of Russia, the demand for warehouses remains high. Developers prefer Built-to-suit speculative construction. In 2017, 377,000 square meters were built in the regions of the Russian Federation. m high-quality warehouse space, which is 195,000 square meters. m below indicators of 2016. 48% of the new warehouses in the regions of Russia were built in Novosibirsk, Samara regions and Primorsky Krai. In terms of construction, these regions were ahead of St. Petersburg in 2017, which is traditionally second, after Moscow at the pace of new construction. The growth of supply in St. Petersburg turned out to be the lowest over the past 6 years. This led to a shortage of warehouse space and the growth of the requested rental rates in this region. According to preliminary forecasts, in 2018 the pace of new warehouse construction in the regions will be higher by 30% - about 525,000 square meters of new warehouse space will be built. 57% of them have already been concluded. preliminary contracts Rental and sale.
By volume of leased and purchased areas, the result of 2017 in the regions of Russia was better than 2016 in all indicators. The volume of prisoners has increased by 72% and amounted to 626,000 sq.m. The number of transactions increased by 60%. The average size of the transaction in 2017 amounted to 9,000 square meters, which is higher than the same indicator of 2016 by 14%. Thus, the two-year trend of reducing the volume of prisoners has ceased. Traditionally, from all regions, most transactions with warehouses are performed in St. Petersburg. In 2017, 30% of transactions were concluded in this region. The second region in terms of transactions - Yekaterinburg, this region accounted for 24% of regional transactions in 2017. Cushman & Wakefield analysts predict that the demand for warehouse space in the regions next year will continue. The volume of prisoners from warehouse real estate will be at the level of 2017 and will be about 600,000 square meters.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD Research Division
Commercial real estate analysis market market for commercial real estate market, trading property, office real estate.
Main conclusions
The amount of supply on the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow for the year significantly decreased while simultaneously substantiated prices. On the rental market of commercial real estate on the contrary, the rates remained at the level of December 2016 at a less significant decrease in the amount of supply.
The amount of sentences both in the rental market and in the market sales increased for the year only by commercial premises., On the rental market, the decline in rates was observed only in trade facilities, and in the market of sale a decline in prices on them in comparison with other types of real estate was maximal.
According to individual segments in the rental markets and sales, the situation has developed as follows:
- The decline in bets on trading facilities was less significant compared to the decline in prices and there was little difference in objects as within and so outside the Garden Ring. Under the objects of Street retail and rates and prices outside the center decreased insignificantly, while in the center - much more significant and, especially, prices.
- With the exception of offices, leased outside the center, the supply of office objects has been seriously reduced, however, if the rates have moderately rose (more significantly - in the center), then prices have decreased (more substantially within the garden ring).
- The total area of \u200b\u200bproduction and warehouses in the lease market has significantly decreased, and the rates have grown slightly. On the sales market, the amount of supply and prices decreased by an average rates.
Main conclusion:
The lack of growth in the commercial real estate market, as before, is associated with the insufficient level of business activity of the construction of new facilities and extremely modest macroeconomic indicators. Despite the growth of investment in the commercial real estate of Russia, in 2017 by 27% compared to 2016, the lag of investment on the pre-crisis level of 2013 is more than double. In such conditions, the rental market feels more confidently than the sale market.
The implementation of the deferred demand at the low office market in view of low business activity is not yet able to lead to price increase even in conditions of reduction of the offer /. The position in the rental market is somewhat better, but the growth rates are insignificant. Consumer demand It remains low both due to low incomes of the population and with the predominance of a savings model of behavior. These factors have a negative impact on the market of commercial premises, in general, and to the soldering market of the sale market, in particular.
In 2018, the year of the presidential election, investment activity is likely to be traditionally low. In the absence of growth in investment and business activity, it can be assumed that there will be no noticeable improvement in the commercial real estate market during the year.
Research methodology
As objects for the sale of commercial real estate sales market, commercial real estate facilities were selected for sale in open sources - office, production and warehouses (PSPs) and free commercial premises (PSNs), as well as commercial premises with with total area More than 100 sq.m. At the same time, in order to analyze the price speakers, the weighted average selling price is used, which is calculated as the ratio of the total value of objects to the total area of \u200b\u200bthese objects.
As objects for the market for a commercial real estate lease market, commercial real estate objects offered in open sources were selected - trade, office, production and warehouses (PSPs) with a total area of \u200b\u200bmore than 50 sq.m. In order to analyze the price dynamics, an average rental rate is used, which is calculated as the arithmetic average of all objects, as well as the total annual rental fee (HAP), which is calculated as the rental amount per year.
Rent
The market in general
Volume of supply
The supply volume for the past 2017 was noticeably hesitated from the month by month, but in general it can be said that until the summer he was grew, after which it decreased.
The overall decline in the supply of the Square for 12 months was 7%.
In December 2017, 2,992 facility with a total area of \u200b\u200b1,467 thousand square meters were exposed on the market.
Price indicators
Rental rates For the past 2017, just as the volume of proposals, hesitated, but insignificant.
The average rate on the lease market from December 2016 to December 2017 increased by 1% in Rublev and decreased by 9% in dollar terms. In December, the average rental rate amounted to 18236 rubles / sq.m. / year, or 313 $ / sq.m. / year.
Against the background of low inflation (2.5% in 2017, according to Rosstat) and extremely modest other macroeconomic indicators, 1-% growth rate can be assessed as a completely good indicator characteristic of our "new economic reality. Compared to the market for sale, the rental market for all types of real estate in these conditions feels significantly better.
Comparative segment analysis
Volume of supply
The growth rate of the supply of a total area in 2017 in the rental market was + 4% of the trade real estate, -5% - on office and -13% for industrial and warehouse real estate.
The total area of \u200b\u200bthe exhibited objects in December 2017 was: 221 thousand square meters. on shopping facilities, 750 thousand square meters. - on office and 496 thousand square meters. - In terms of production and warehouse.
Throughout 2017, the average area of \u200b\u200bexhibited commercial premises decreased by 8%, production and warehouse - by 15%, office-on 13%.
Price indicators
The average rate on commercial premises from December 2016 to December 2017 decreased by 5% to 30,627 rubles / sq.m / year, on office - rose by 3% to 17,29 rubles / sq.m / year, on production Warehouses grew by 2% and amounted to 6,526 rubles / sq.m / year. Judging by the reduction of rental rates, the lowest demand, used commercial premises.
Changing the annual total rent from December 2016 to December 2017 was + 23% of the trade, -3% - on office space and -13% - according to production and warehouses.
After some growth of bets on commercial premises in 2016, when the office real estate rates and production and warehouse premises decreased, the situation changed to the opposite direct. Low demand for commercial premises, as in the market of sale, can be caused by low population income and the predominance of a savings model of behavior.
Trade property
Volume of supply
The volume of offers of commercial premises in Square in December 2017 in the center decreased by 31%, while outside the garden rings grew by 7%. The change in the number of objects exhibited was-31% and + 18%, respectively.
In total, in December 2017, 43 facilities were put up to the market with a total area of \u200b\u200b10 thousand square meters within the garden ring and 625 objects with an area of \u200b\u200b211 thousand km. The total volume of commercial offers amounted to 668 facility with a total area of \u200b\u200b221 thousand. sq.m with a middle area of \u200b\u200bone object 331 sq.m.
Price indicators
The average rate of objects in the center from December 2016 to December 2017 decreased by 2% to 62,471 rubles / sq.m / year, and on objects outside the garden ring did not change and amounted to 28,438 rubles / sq.m / year . Judging by the significant reduction in rates on objects in the center for the second year, the demand for them decreases.
Annual rental fees within the garden ring decreased by 31%, and outside the garden rings increased by 34%.
Street-Retail
The volume of proposal of the objects of the Street-Retail format for 12 months in total area increased by 12%, incl. In the center - decreased by 6%, and outside the increased by 14% and amounted to 17 facilities with a total area of \u200b\u200b3 thousand square meters. In the center and 224 facility with an area of \u200b\u200b61 thousand square meters. beyond.
The average rental rate for 12 months decreased by 9% to 33,948 rubles / sq.m. / year, while in the center decreased by 16% to 70 361 rubles / sq.m. / year, and beyond 4% to 31 184 rubles / sq.m. / year,.
The situation with the demand for Street-Retail in the center is somewhat different from the situation on commercial premises in general, the fact that in 2016 prices on Street-Retail in the center grew. However, in 2017, the decline in prices for such objects clearly exceeds the decline in prices on Street-Retail on the periphery.
Office real estate
Volume of supply
The volume of offices of offices in total Square from December 2016 to December 2017 decreased by 45% in the center and grew by 1% beyond. The change in the number of exhibited premises was, respectively, -28% and + 16%.
In total, in December 2017, 174 facilities were exhibited within the garden ring and 1,612 of the object beyond the total area of \u200b\u200b57 and 693 thousand square meters. m, respectively. The total volume of office offers in December amounted to 1786 facilities with a total area of \u200b\u200b750 thousand square meters with an average area of \u200b\u200bone object of 420 sq. M. m.
Price indicators
The middle rate on office objects for 2017 as a whole increased by 3% to 17 129 rubles / sq.m. / year. Within the Garden Ring, the average rate increased by 10% and amounted to 28,049 rubles / sq.m. / year, and on periphery by 5% to 15 950 rubles / sq.m. / year.
The total annual rental fee on office proposals in the center decreased by 38%, and outside the Garden Ring - increased by 5%.
Judging by the change in rates over the past 2 years, the demand for office objects in the center is higher than beyond.
The prices in the real estate market for a long period remain unchanged, while the trend is preserved to decrease. At the end of 2017, we can say that favorable conditions for the purchase of real estate associated with a decrease in mortgage rate, which reaches 7% per annum. There are preferential programs, state subsidies, discounts from developers. So is it worth buying housing or better postpone the transaction for the next year? What are the prospects real Estate Market? Is the investment in housing favorable and economically justified?
Situation in the real estate market at the end of 2017
The real estate market for 2017 notes the trend towards lower prices, which allows you to purchase housing with a moderate board. The demand of the population is limited, and the proposal is constantly growing. In Moscow, there is such a situation:
Developers are constantly conducting promotions, affiliate and price discounts for customers, which is caused by tough competition in the industry. At the end of 2017, prices did not increase, but the commissioning of new buildings increased significantly.
Is it worthwhile to buy apartments in a mortgage or better to wait next year? Experts believe that today's real estate market situation is the most favorable for the purchase of housing. The lowest mortgage rate is 6.75%, it is subsidized by the developer. Of course, it can be expected that a stock rate will be applied in the coming years - 6%, but now it is profitable to purchase apartments.
Today mortgage rates Significantly decreased, and banks implement a variety of schemes for buying objects. Even if in 2018 the mortgage will be more profitable, you can refinance the current loan.
Buy housing in a mortgage or better accumulate the required amount? Of course, it solves every person alone. If you found a suitable apartment that is completely satisfied with the price, it is worth getting a loan. If there are no optimal offers on the market yet, you can continue to save. True, there is a risk of financial turmoil and loss of savings, as it was in 2014. Those who save, better than half of the savings to translate into currency and put in Sberbank or VTB - cash in the cell.
The price tag for housing from the developer turns out to be lower in view of the low demand and impressive volume of square meters introduced. What amount is needed to acquire primary housing?
In general, buying an apartment from the developer is the most attractive option. Not only are promoted, reduced rates and prices are awaited. So, choosing an apartment in the new complex "Liner" and paying 100% of its cost, you will get a designer finish and a kitchen equipped with modern appliances.
Is it worth waiting for the prices in Moscow on housing will decrease, and buy apartments will be much more profitable than now? This trend exists, but to build long-term forecasts problematic. Experts believe that by 2021 prices reached such indicators:
But talk about average price It is not worth it, because it depends not only on the prospects for the development of the market, the level of supply and supply, but also the selected object, its location, the availability of infrastructure.
Investment attractiveness of real estate let and reduced at the end of the past years, but still remain. Investing money at the construction stage, and then resell apart apartments are still expedient. The market still remain classical investors who acquire square meters For resale in a few years, as well as for rent.
It is not necessary to wait for a sharp decline in prices in 2018, although buyers can find an interesting offer at the expense of impressive discounts from the developer. True, usually shares are not valid for the entire volume of apartments - to ensure that the offer will arrange you, it is impossible. It does not have to count on a significant reduction in prices - the cost of housing and so extremely low, and given the constant rise in price of land, building materials and construction, developers simply can not allow even larger discounts.
Buying an apartment in the mortgage today is really worth it, especially if your accumulations grow insufficiently fast. If you manage to postpone at least 100-200 thousand per month, it is worth waiting for not to take great amount in debt from the bank.
Property market prospects,
The situation in the real estate market At the end of 2017, the real estate market for 2017 notes the trend towards lower prices, which allows you to purchase housing with a moderate board. The demand of the population is limited, and the proposal is constantly growing. In Moscow, there is such a situation:
- Real estate are less and less interested in investors and speculators planning to invest in the short term;
- Unlike the market of other cities, luxury accommodation uses in great demand - the developers are built by premium buildings. So, in Ramenki soon there will be over 140 thousand square meters. business class housing;
- It is advisable to invest in the early stages of construction, so, in the "Garden Quarters" complex, the price of a meter is 450 thousand rubles, and at the stage of readiness increases to 600 thousand;
- The quality of objects has significantly improved compared to the past decade. With increasing competition, the level of comfort is growing - the comfort-class facilities are equipped with a developed infrastructure and unusual planning solutions;
- The boundaries between the housing classes are erased, and the comfort of the comfort level is even cheaper than the economy segment.
- The apartments of the Small Square and the corresponding price are still in great demand. Buy immediately a big and comfortable apartment in Moscow can afford not all.
Mortgage - Is it worth taken in 2017?
Is it worthwhile to buy apartments in a mortgage or better to wait next year? Experts believe that today's real estate market situation is the most favorable for the purchase of housing. The lowest mortgage rate is 6.75%, it is subsidized by the developer. Of course, it can be expected that a stock rate will be applied in the coming years - 6%, but now it is profitable to purchase apartments. Today mortgage rates decreased significantly, and banks implement a variety of schemes for buying objects. Even if in 2018 the mortgage will be more profitable, you can refinance the current loan. Buy housing in a mortgage or better accumulate the required amount? Of course, it solves every person alone. If you found a suitable apartment that is completely satisfied with the price, it is worth getting a loan. If there are no optimal offers on the market yet, you can continue to save. True, there is a risk of financial turmoil and loss of savings, as it was in 2014. Those who save, better than half of the savings to translate into currency and put in Sberbank or VTB - cash in the cell.What is more profitable: housing for the Moscow Ring Road or within its limits?
The price tag for housing from the developer turns out to be lower in view of the low demand and impressive volume of square meters introduced. What amount is needed to acquire primary housing?- If proximity to the center is not fundamentally, you can choose a lot of interesting options for the Moscow Ring Road. For example, in New Moscow in the LCD " Spanish quarters"For 6.5 million rubles implement three-bedroom apartments;
- If you are looking for accommodation with a developed infrastructure nearby, one-room apartments are the most affordable budget option. For 5.3 million. You can buy a studio on the Khodynsky field with the Water Park shopping center, schools and children's kindergartens nearby;
- Secondary housing is implemented at a price, which directly depends on the location of the building and the desires of the owner.
Prospects for the development of the real estate market: what to expect?
Is it worth waiting for the prices in Moscow on housing will decrease, and buy apartments will be much more profitable than now? This trend exists, but to build long-term forecasts is problematic. Experts believe that by 2021 prices reached such indicators:- Secondary housing - 100-140 thousand rubles per sq. M.;
- Economy new buildings - 100 thousand;
- Housing segment Comfort - 120-140 thousand;
- Business class - less than 200 thousand.
In 2015, I already wrote an article about with my forecasts for the future of the real estate market. This year decided to continue the tradition and write the forecast for the real estate market for 2017 and 2018. Since I am a realtor in Moscow, so I make a property forecast for real estate in Moscow.
You want to start my analyst with the fact that the demand for real estate was always! Real estate is a product from the discharge of necessary. Only customer splitting could decrease, and not their number. Also, I do not think that what is happening on the market now can be called a crisis. The crisis was in 2008. And what happens in the Russian economy since 2015 can be called in one word: access to crash money is closed! Moreover, for all, ranging from a simple citizen, ending with the state. So we just live in the period real economy. And all the conversations about the crisis should be attributed to the geopolitical redistribution of the world. And since I touched on politics, I can not mention the fact of future presidential elections in the Russian Federation. I guess, there will be a little saturation of the market with money, which will slightly affect the solvency of buyers.
In 2016, the number of proposals in the residential real estate market has reached a historical maximum. And apparently, in the coming year, the volume of introducing new housing is not going to file. I assume we will also see the large bankruptcy of some developers. If we recall the situation on the new buildings market ten years ago, all apartments were bought at the initial stage of construction. Now the situation has changed dramatically. There are built houses in which more than half of the apartments are not sold. And, a large number of such apartments already with finish or with qualitative repairs. And all this volume of non-sold new buildings is direct competition to apartments in the secondary real estate market. Because the price is in new buildings below (or the same), the quality in most cases above and after the purchase you can immediately move and live.
What do we have on the fact?
1. Customer demand has not decreased, but only reduced its platforms.
2. The number of proposals on the market exceeds demand and continues to grow.
3. The crisis has been sluggish for several years and continues to maintain its stability.
Based on this, my forecast for real estate market The next thing - the market will preserve the trend towards a slow but faithful price reduction. It will continue smoothly over the next two years. I am not waiting for sharp prices of prices, as well as increasing. The market dynamics suggests that the annual predictive decrease in real estate value will occur within 5-10%.
What to do in this situation?
The first and most important advice is to be realistic and study the forecasts of the real estate market. It is necessary to understand that there will be no longer on the buyer's market ready without looking and without trading buy your apartment. Before making a purchase decision, buyer to study all numerous offers and choose the best and cheapest one of them. Therefore, if you want to sell an apartment, look at the market dynamics for half a year ago. Simply put, you want to sell an apartment now put the price for it, which will be on it in six months. Or you will find yourself one of the train cars standing on the spare path. Also, it is worth considering the changed mentality of the Moscow buyer. Today, the buyer in most cases will give priority to a new modern housing in the nearest Moscow region than buy an apartment for the same money in the old five or nine-beds in Moscow.
BUT ?
You should not count more on a sharp decline in real estate prices. Yes, as I already wrote, prices in any case will slowly decrease. But what do you need to buyer? Solve your own housing problem, and the expectant position, taking into account the annual money inflation, will not solve any problems. The best position of the buyer in the real estate market, buy now the best real estate at the most favorable price.
Well, what to do to those who want to invest money in a residential real estate with investment targets (rent or profitably sell in a few years)? I immediately want to disappoint, this event is initially doomed to failure. The maximum that can be obtained now on renting an apartment for rent - 4 or 5% per annum. Do not forget to subtract real estate tax, income tax, depreciation costs, and everything will become even sadder. And about hope is more expensive in a few years, generally I do not see the point.
This is how it seems to me, based on my knowledge and professional experience. Can I make mistake? Certainly can! Unfortunately, in our country, any analyst can be crossed by a feather stroke of someone from the strengths of this. But here I am powerless.
