What to expect from the dollar in July. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. Ruble Growth Factors

Experts: how the actions of the Ministry of Finance will affect the dollar / ruble pair

It is possible that this summer the ruble will fall and reach 70 per dollar. Economists came to this conclusion after the news that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation plans to increase the supply of foreign currency while its inflow into the country has declined. Analysts are of the opinion that these actions may lead to the weakening of the national ruble and reduce the cost of a barrel of oil to $40.

Statistics of changes in the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar, the first half of 2017*:

*The lowest dollar exchange rate in the period from December 31, 2016 to June 14, 2017 was 55.8453 (April 26), the highest was 60.6569 on the last day of last year.

In addition, experts' forecasts agree that other geopolitical factors may also affect the fluctuations of the euro / dollar: early parliamentary elections in the UK, a meeting of the European Central Bank, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Previously, this opinion was voiced by the Minister economic development Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin, who stated that the ruble exchange rate was “overvalued” and predicted its decline in the second half of the year. Vasily Osmakov, who holds the post of Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, also stated that a little more than 60 rubles per dollar is favorable for the domestic industry.

It is expected that in the period from June to July, the Ministry of Finance will purchase foreign currency for 2.1 billion rubles a day. Given that the current account balance traditionally weakens in the summer months, the department's operations are expected to have a significant impact on the ruble. As a result, analysts predict fluctuations in the dollar / ruble pair up to 58-60 rubles, if not from July 1 then during the season.

Another factor could be the reduction key rate Bank of Russia. How they transmit latest news with reference to the words of the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, two options are being considered: 25 and 50 percentage points. The withdrawal of foreign investment from Russian federal loan bonds depends on how much the rate will be reduced.

— If by autumn these counter increases / decreases amount to more than 1%, then you can expect 62-63 rubles per dollar, - Alexander Baulin, Asset Manager of IC Zerich Capital Management, speaks about the dynamics of changes in the FRS and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Analysts' forecast: what will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in the coming months

Another forecast of analysts, according to which fluctuations in the cost of oil will not affect the national currency - $ 54.6 per barrel and 59.2 rubles per dollar. Moreover, some economists admit the possibility of oil prices rising to $60 or more. Experts call the prerequisites for such a development "an unstoppable increase in production in the United States, the return of production in Nigeria and a slowdown in demand growth in India and China."

It is expected that in Russia there will be a weakening of the national currency and the growth of the American one. According to Vladimir Bragin, Chief Analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, the exchange rate may be pressured by a decrease in the inflow of non-residents' money into carry trade transactions.

What are the prospects for the dollar/ruble exchange rate in Russia in July 2017? Will there be a large-scale devaluation of the exchange rate this year or will the ruble continue to strengthen? These questions are regularly asked by hundreds of our compatriots.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to accurately predict the dynamics of the exchange rate - there are too many factors that cannot be predicted. Nevertheless, InvestFuture analysts regularly analyze the current situation on financial markets and share with our readers their expectations on the dynamics of the exchange rate in Russia.

Dollar - forecast for July 2017

Most analysts agree that the peak of ruble appreciation in 2017 occurred in the first half of the year. In the 3rd quarter (July, August, September), the interviewed experts expect a gradual depreciation of the ruble.

In July 2017, the dollar exchange rate in Russia is expected to rise to 62 rubles per unit of US currency.

The editors of InvestFuture interviewed 8 independent analysts. According to the consensus forecast, at the end of July the USD/RUB rate may reach 62.08 rubles.

Reasons for the growth of the dollar

The main reason for the expected strengthening of the dollar, which is indicated by the interviewed experts, may be a decrease in oil prices in the range of $40-45 per barrel. This can happen either in the event of growing disagreements between OPEC countries, or in the event of a sharp increase in US shale oil production.

Some analysts look at the market even more pessimistically. For example, Alor Broker analyst Sergei Korolev believes that if US shale producers flood the world with their oil production, Saudi Arabia may refuse to fulfill its obligations under the deal to freeze production before it expires.

“In such a situation, it is likely that the price of oil may fall to the level of $25 per barrel and the dollar-ruble pair may reach 80 in the summer of 2017,” Korolev believes.

Bank of Russia and the Fed will weaken the ruble?

Some economists consider key risk for the ruble it is the policy of the leading central banks - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Federal Reserve System. The Bank of Russia continues its policy of lowering the interest rate, while the Fed, on the contrary, is in a rate hike cycle.

A decrease in the yield spread on the Russian and American markets in the near future will be able to make investments in Russia (the so-called carry trade) less attractive. According to the chief economist of the Eurasian Bank Yaroslav Lisovolik, such operations have become popular with foreign investors due to the high interest rates in the economy compared to the current inflation rate. Implicitly, investors may gain a foothold in expectations of further easing monetary policy Central Bank, which will push them to withdraw funds from the Russian market.

“We expect that by the end of the year, gold and foreign exchange reserves will increase by about $18-20 billion thanks to the purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance. Interventions on foreign exchange market, the seasonal reduction in the current account surplus and expectations of a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank will contribute to the weakening of the ruble in the second half of 2017,” Sberbank CIB analysts say.

Constantly monitors US dollar to Russian ruble exchange rate. Below is a report on the change in the US Dollar exchange rate during July 2017. You will find information such as US dollar value for each day in July 2017, the minimum, maximum and average value of the US Dollar. US dollar price is a market-weighted average (for fiat currencies, the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is given).

USD exchange rate chart for July 2017

Below is US dollar exchange rate chart for each day for July 2017. average price US dollar calculated as weighted average value of the US dollar in the market. For national currencies, the graph shows the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

US Dollar exchange rate table in July 2017

US Dollar exchange rate table in July 2017 includes the exchange rate of the US Dollar for each day and the change in the exchange rate of the US Dollar. The change in the value of the currency is calculated as in absolute terms, that is change in the price of the US dollar in rubles, as well as in relative terms, that is percent change in the value of the US dollar.

The minimum, maximum and average exchange rate of the US Dollar in July 2017

The table shows minimum, maximum and average rate US dollar in rubles in July 2017. For the minimum and maximum exchange rate, the date on which this exchange rate fell is indicated.

In July 2017 US dollar value in rubles changed in the range from 58.9325 RUB to 60.7397 RUB with an average value of 59.6927 RUB. At the same time, the minimum average daily price per US dollar was recorded on July 22 (58.9325 RUB), the maximum value of the US dollar in July 2017 dated July 12 and amounted to 60.7397 RUB. hesitation US dollar exchange rate within a month 1.8072 RUB.

Summer is just around the corner, many traders are going on vacation, and everyone is interested in the pressing question "A what will happen to the ruble this summer? Officials' forecasts are optimistic - there will be no significant depreciation of the exchange rate, however, if the oil market is stable. Nevertheless, financial analysts say that the risks for the Russian economy are still high.

So, dangers for the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar for the summer of 2017.

1. Analysts versus the government: whose forecast is more accurate

According to the representatives Russian government forecast in 2017 economic indicators Russia will improve - after a protracted recession, GDP will grow in the range of 1-2%, income growth will resume, and inflation will slow down to 4-4.5%.

However, many analysts doubt such estimates, focusing on the continuing growth in Russian economy problems are the lack of structural reforms, without which there will be zero in the medium term, as well as the outflow of capital, which deprives the economy of resources for development.

According to the latest data, capital outflow accelerated by 6% in 2017 compared to the previous year. The decrease in the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation made the domestic market no longer so attractive for speculative capital. It is worth noting that these figures are significantly ahead of the government's forecasts. At the same time, for payment external debt spent $700 million less than last year.

If such rates of capital outflow are maintained, the ruble exchange rate may weaken against the dollar by 1-2 rubles this summer.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the Fed will continue to increase interest rate, which will also play against the ruble.

2. Oil is still the No. 1 factor for the ruble

Despite the fact that the speculative factor sometimes allows the ruble to "break away" from the dynamics of the oil market, it still remains the most significant factor for the formation of the Russian currency.

Experts of the Bank of Russia, in the short term, do not exclude the decline in oil prices in the region of 40-45 dollars per barrel. Despite positive signals about the implementation of the OPEC + agreement on the “freeze” of production volumes, as well as the widely announced statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia about the need to extend the agreement for another 9 months, the balance in the oil market is under threat.

Analysts believe that the main threat is the increase in oil exports from the United States, which compensates for the reduction in supplies from Russia and OPEC countries. Recall that US President Donald Trump intends to increase production in the Gulf of Mexico, and also plans to return to the development of oil projects on the Arctic shelf.

Ahead of oil exporters are negotiations to continue the OPEC + agreement, and they can hardly be called simple. Their outcome will depend on many factors, including increased competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia which will affect the price of oil.

It should be understood that in such conditions, high volatility will remain in the oil market, which has a bad effect on Russian currency. In addition, the strengthening of the ruble at low oil prices is a threat to the development of the economy. The authorities have repeatedly stated that they will look for market instruments to match the ruble exchange rate with oil prices, therefore with cheap raw materials, you should not count on an expensive ruble.

3. The MED bets on the growth of the dollar

The forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development assume a rapid growth of the dollar, while two options are being considered.

The baseline forecast is based on keeping oil prices above $50/barrel. In this case, the dollar will reach the threshold of 62 rubles. At the same time, MED experts exclude sharp fluctuations in currency quotes.

The negative forecast takes into account the seasonal fall in prices for "black gold" in summer period resulting in a worsening balance of payments. This trend will lead to the devaluation of the ruble to 68 rubles / dollar.

The weakening of the ruble will have positive consequences for the economy, experts emphasize. In addition, the government will be able to resolve the issue of financing the expenditure side of the budget.

4. On the nose devaluation of the ruble

A moderate ruble will solve several issues at once, experts say. Export-oriented companies will receive additional support, which will become a new growth driver for the economy. As a result, domestic companies will gain a new competitive advantage in international markets.

Another painful issue for the Russian government is the reduction of the budget deficit. The weakening of the ruble will increase revenues from the export of hydrocarbons, which will become an alternative source for financing the budget deficit. In this case, the government will be able to fully fulfill social obligations without increasing the volume of debt.

The last decade of June was a definite moment of truth for the course Russian ruble against the dollar and the euro. On June 21, the dollar exchange rate for the first time in four months exceeded 60 rubles, and the euro for the first time in six months turned out to be more expensive than 67 rubles. Apparently, the ruble will continue to weaken further. Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia: experts' forecasts regarding how events will develop on currency exchanges at the beginning of the second half of 2017.

Why the dollar began to rise in price against the ruble

Economists are talking about several reasons why the dollar began to sharply gain value against the ruble. The main one is, of course, the price of oil on world exchanges that has fallen to $45 per barrel, although a month ago oil was quoted at about $54 per barrel.

An important factor was also the desire of the Central Bank of Russia to weaken the too strong, according to government economists, national currency. At the same time, many months of attempts to do this by buying up foreign currency for domestic market turned out to be not very effective, but against the backdrop of cheaper oil, the described tactics of the Russian economic authorities finally played.

The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development indicates that at the end of 2017 the dollar will have to cost 68 rubles, and at the beginning of 2018 - already 70.8 rubles.

Accordingly, as long as the exchange rate of the US dollar moves towards the indicated values, the weakening of the ruble at least takes place under the control of the regulator and in accordance with a certain plan. Although it is not a fact that this should reassure the country's population, which will at least feel the growth of ruble prices for imported goods.

Another factor to take into account is the reduction of the key rate in the US. The decision of the Federal Reserve System of this country reduced the interest of investors in such markets as the Russian one, which also does not play into the hands of the ruble.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts

Taking into account everything described above, one should not expect the former stability from the ruble and, moreover, its strengthening. If the analysts' assumptions are correct, and the Russian economic powers headed for the weakening of the national currency, the gradual depreciation of the ruble will continue.

This is evidenced by the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia, the forecasts of Moscow APEKON experts say the following:

• July will start with the dollar around 62,43 rubles per dollar.
• On July 10, the dollar exchange rate will be equal 63,17 rubles.
• On July 20, we should expect the dollar exchange rate to be around 63,85 rubles.
• July ends with 64,30 rubles for one US dollar.

During the month, experts expect fluctuations in the dollar from 62.43 to 65.26 rubles. Thus, by August, according to the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia from the agency's experts, the American currency will rise in price by almost two rubles or three percent compared to the end of June.

In practice, ongoing events mean that people who plan currency operations, preparing for a summer vacation or for other reasons, you should definitely take into account the new trend in the dollar (and, consequently, the euro). If you need to purchase foreign currency, it is better to do it right now, and if you need to exchange it for rubles, it makes sense to wait a while until the rate is even higher.