Fast news today
Recently, Moscow traffic jams caused me to wait for a business meeting in a luxury restaurant. Having admired the views, I began to casually observe the guests. At one table they were celebrating something, the girls took numerous selfies, such a common story.
Behind the other sat "strange" blond guys and talked nicely, for Moscow, too, a common story. There were also a couple of those who had been disliked for a long time, also trivial. But who surprised me was a man who was constantly brought new dishes, and he actively ate them. Then came the "big Italian family", a truly loving couple, someone else ... The hall was filled with guests.
And then I thought that we are all sitting in the same restaurant, we are all human, but how do we behave differently, being shy or, on the contrary, behaving somewhat shockingly, choosing a table differently, enjoying the ordered dish and so on, etc. Also the guests of my interviews, they are all very different people, with different life stories, but they are united by one thing - they want to see the development of Russia.
I noticed that the arguments of industrialists converge and are more close to real affairs, the arguments of the agrarians are also almost the same and are quite bold, but retailers are a completely different story and caste, economists look at everything through their prism, people of science offer balanced decisions based on history. and world experience.
Today my guest is a financial analyst, a well-known radio host, a person who trades stocks, bonds and futures, or, more simply, a trader. There were no people with this kind of activity in my project yet. I think his answers will surprise you in the same way that the man from the restaurant surprised me (by the way, he turned out to be a taster). So, about the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, about economic niches and the brand "Made in Russia", about why pensions were stolen from us long ago, and it was pointless to talk to the government with Vladimir Levchenko.
"SP": - Vladimir, it is immediately obvious that you love sports. Does it help you achieve your goals in life?
This is already my habit. Otherwise I feel somehow not very comfortable. I started as a child with gymnastics, I was engaged in martial arts for a long time, and much more. Now I just keep myself in good physical shape.
"SP": - Are martial arts important for boys? I ask as a mom.
For a boy, yes. He needs to be able to take punches in the face, he must understand that with absolutely any situation that arises in life, you can live. In the spring there was a story with mass suicides of children in the Chelyabinsk region. This is horror. This means that a person does not have enough resources, he has such a weak psyche that he begins to hysteria, blaming everyone around for all his problems. In such cases, sport builds character. A simple example: you got injured in training, you are in pain, and you learn to understand it forever or not forever and what to do about it.
Sport teaches to achieve. In psychology, there is an axiom that says - at the moment when a person has a desire, he always has the strength to fulfill it. And if we do not achieve something, then we ourselves, primarily by our uncertainty, “merge” all these forces into another channel.
"SP": - Always achieve what you want?
Yes. But here the main problem is in defining the formulation of desire and confirming the inner feeling that this is exactly what I need. Most of our people don't know what they want.
"SP": - I know what I want! I want you to analyze the world economy. Where is the world heading?
Photo: author
Very important events have taken place in the world economy in recent years. Two years ago, the world finally entered a falling commodity cycle. The era of economic development that we have seen since 1985, where emerging markets were the main driver, is over. Now the world is moving into a new paradigm - a technological one. With such a paradigm, countries with such an economic structure as ours will be outsiders. We will lose if we do not change the economic course. So far, our government does not want to change anything.
"SP": - Are there forces in our country that can say what needs to be done?
Say what to do, eat! But I do not see the forces capable of realizing this yet.
Rather than integrating more deeply into the global economy and deepening the division of labor, the government is doing the opposite. Our management needs to understand that the deeper the level of division of labor, that is, the more highly paid specialists in comparison with low-paid specialists, the higher the overall level of the economy. To do this, you need to develop science, education, and so on. And we are in the process of degradation of these spheres. It seems that a policy is being pursued to reduce the intellectual component, including in the economy.
There is a completely different trend in the world. Since 1970, two key developments have taken place. First, the rate of population growth began to decline. And the economy is demography, this is the population. There are new people, there is growth, there are consumers, there is an economy. Secondly, there is a decline in the use of raw materials in each new dollar of GDP. This means that it is not some kind of oil, not glands, not metals, not square meters that are acquiring more and more value, but the value is acquired by the person himself. But not his ability to dig up a garden bed or sweep the street, but to create something fundamentally new, for example, a breakthrough technology.
"SP": - Only in Russia this does not happen.
Right. We have the opposite tendency. There are, of course, positive aspects, but there are very few of them. For example, the head of Sberbank Gref tries to introduce new technologies. You need to understand that this is a very long-term process and the return on such things can be in many, many years, and this is normal.
"SP": - You take part in many economic forums. Are there any among them that you would support?
The problem is that the results of the forums are not systematized. And it is necessary to create working groups that would introduce reasonable ideas from forums into the economy. The Stolypin club, of which I am a member, develops programs, but so far this has not come anywhere. The government does not hear the forums. The same story with the Moscow Economic Forum.
Photo: author
"SP": - Recently, Putin heard three plans for economic development: from Kudrin, from Siluanov and from Titov. The latter is one of the leaders of the Stolypin club. Does this plan have a chance?
Practice shows that the economy has been pushed somewhere very far. And it is clear how it will end.
"SP": - Riots, revolutions?
No, this is impossible in our country. We simply do not have a young population due to the demographic failure of 1988-2010. There are much fewer young people who can become active, including economically active, than there were five to ten years ago. Remember how the classic sang - there are few real violent ones, so there are no leaders. Therefore, there is no one to go out.
Just recently, intelligent people went out to the streets who wanted additional rights and freedoms. They were thrown a bone in the form of a fairy tale - that if you want something, then you yourself go into politics. We did it very competently. Yes, you could go into politics, but no one would certainly succeed.
"SP": - What will happen to the Russian ruble? You have already stated that the rate will be under 100 rubles per dollar ...
Will be in any case. Our ruble is highly overvalued. Under the current model of the economy, the ruble is an objectively weak currency. Because in Russia there is a low level of labor productivity, the quality of work of social and economic institutions is also low. There is also no management structure, no communications, no infrastructure. The only way out is to engage in competition, finding niches in the economy in which we will be competitive.
"SP": - To create a brand "Made in Russia" as Ruslan Grinberg says?
Certainly. Engage in the production and creation of high-tech products. It is high technology products. We can do breakthrough things that few people in the world do. This should be done on the basis of the country. Let's invest in science and education. Moreover, there must be a national idea.
In the meantime, we do not even have long-term planning. It seems that the word "tomorrow" is simply not in the lexicon of our leaders. The government behaves as if tomorrow never comes. And you need to be able to plan for a long time so that everyone living in this country wants his children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren to live here.
"SP": - You are now addressing the government?
I appeal to each of us, it is pointless to appeal to the government. If each of us begins to live like this, then the government will either gradually change, or it will also begin to reach them.
"SP": - So what will happen to the ruble?
The ruble should be cheap because it is very overvalued. In the fall, there will be another wave of falling oil prices. Therefore, it is quite possible that the rate will be 100 rubles per dollar. And the dollar began another wave of its growth in the world.
By and large, all technologies are concentrated in the United States, respectively, this attracts capital to the states. So for now - the dollar.
"SP": - But they say that you need to invest in gold. Is it so?
Gold loses its purchasing power for a long time, because the more technology develops, the lower the purchasing power of gold. In the long run, in terms of technology, those who buy gold lose. And in the short term, they can only speculate.
From the point of view of a commonplace consumer, buying a dollar for a ruble is investing in the development of a technological American economy, it is lending to companies that invest in technology. If you buy gold, then you harm everyone. Buying gold is taking money out of the economy. If you compare it with the human body, then going into cash means you just stopped eating, and going into gold means you are still bleeding yourself extra.
"SP": - How do you prepare for the crisis?
I don't really prepare. There will be a new reality in Russia. Now the main population of Russia behaves as if our life is worth "zero". Here is a square meter of housing - this is the value. It's terrible, but this is our national psychology. It needs to be changed.
For example, one person is poor, and the other is better off. How does a less wealthy person reason?
"SP": - Are you jealous?
Well, he would be jealous, he hates him! For the reason that he does not understand and, most importantly, does not want to understand why this person lives better than he does. Doesn't understand what character traits and not only a better-off person has. He refuses to admit that a rich person is objectively successful in society.
"SP": - Why are you saying this?
Because this is the reason that we have crises. It's like in the Soviet Union there was an egalitarianism, when the "excellent student" and the "C grade" were paid the same. That is why the Soviet Union collapsed.
"SP": - Vladimir, but not all people are capable of organizing economic stability for themselves. The same Vladimir Zvorykin, the inventor of television, would not have been so successful if his inventions had not been promoted by a talented manager of Jewish origin.
So you need to be able to find such people and use their entrepreneurial talent. But for this you have to look.
"SP": - Maybe society should not be so barbaric? And not to rely on square measures, but to rely on human talents?
Where does such a society come from ?! Society is you and me. I think that if a person earned money, he is great. In our country, the bulk of the population is sincerely convinced that it is impossible to earn honestly, that you can only steal. But how then does the whole world live ?! Where did the fact that so many people steal the entire history of mankind come from?
"SP": - How to get out of the crisis?
I don't think there is a crisis now. Stock indices are at an all-time high! This is not a crisis, this is euphoria.
The American dollar, which was pre-printed to get out of the crisis in 2007-2009, is not being printed. On the contrary, other currencies are printed, such as euro, yen, yuan. The People's Bank of China has once again lowered the yuan exchange rate, and they are deliberately dragging the market with them. Because many people in the world, just like ours, do not want to rebuild.
Today we see how investments made in technology pay off. First of all, this is information technology in America. It is also a development in the world of biotechnology and healthcare. It is in this direction that we must move. Of course, the sales market is not yet ripe for many investments, so some companies will go bankrupt. By the way, historically, technologies have been developing precisely in those periods when prices for raw materials are low.
"SP": - And what should Russia do?
In Russia, you need to make a rate of return. A simple example. I was recently in the South. People complain to me. How is it, Vladimir, I grow vegetables, but they are more expensive than Turkish ones ?! That is, it is cheaper to bring from Turkey than to produce here. This is what the government and regulators should do. They must create a system, conditions, rules. And the investment will go to business!
But Medvedev recently said, - be patient, there is no money.
By the way, our pensions have long been stolen from us!
And the solution can be found simple and straightforward. It is necessary to make a personal retirement account for each separately. And the employer must purposefully allocate money to this account. And we will dispose of them with you. I, as a professional, invest part of these funds in safe bonds, part in stocks. If a person is not a professional, he can give them to be managed by professionals. And there will be no deficit of the pension fund, and there will be no need to produce a huge number of officials. Elementary structure. Something similar has been working in Australia for a long time. Moreover, this money cannot be used until retirement. And you don't have to run from one company to another.
SP: - What else needs to be done for our business in Russia to start breathing?
You need to create a structure. A good example is multifunctional centers in Moscow, the so-called MFC. The human factor has been removed, and now any information can be obtained in five minutes. It is necessary to introduce the technologies of the financial economy into real life.
The next point is the real estate market. Trading square meters should be the same as trading bonds and stocks. Elementary. I have money, you have square meters. I "deposited" money into the account, you entered the electronic system, pressed a button and put up your electronic meters for sale. And I submitted an application to buy these square meters. And that's it! There is no corruption, the deal is immediately visible. Also normal statistics will appear. I have been saying this for so many years that it’s even the most ridiculous.
We have a problem with poor communication between government and business, between business itself, the banking system, and so on. Accordingly, it is necessary to remove these restrictions and then corruption will go away. And the business will breathe deeply. This is the first thing to do.
"SP": - I saw an article on your personal website about retro mercury and its impact on the stock market. Do you keep track of planetary cycles? Does it really work?
I try, but I'm not enough for everything. We do not have many specialists in financial astrology. The cycles of the planets will certainly affect you and me. For example, solar activity, as our scientists first spoke about, affects economic growth. After the positive extreme of solar activity next year, we always see a dip in the rate of global economic growth.
Mercury as the god of trade, as the god of economic activity at the moment when it goes backwards, that is, it becomes "retro", affects some assets. They usually start moving in the opposite direction from the one in which they were moving. Plus, I overlay technical analysis indicators and macroeconomic data. So many assets "worked" like clockwork. I wrote about this in my article.
By the way, the ruble and oil like to unfold at such moments. If we look at it, this has happened in recent years. It is possible that we will soon see a maximum for the ruble, we have already seen for oil. Therefore, the cycle of falling or stagnating commodity prices will continue.
"SP": - And what do our young people do, what do you think? You often refer to terms like maturing and financial stability. How should they organize it?
First, you need to do what you love. It should be interesting. You need to find a positive moment in everyday activities. As they say - smile at the world, and then the world will smile at you. The sequence is just that. And if you look at the world with gritted teeth and growl, then the world will respond in kind. Look for interest in any activity, do what interests you, and always make it to the end.
Here we are communicating with you. But I could tell - I'm not interested in this. But I don’t do this, I go to contact, go to a meeting, and with interest.
"SP": - And if they gave "in the face"? I'm talking about risk management.
The basic rule is that you can always live with any situation. And, as the old Taoist proverb says, - if a stone falls from above, well move away! Do you know what is the most dangerous animal in Africa? Hippopotamus. Because the wild hippopotamus attacks without warning.
"SP": - How? The hippopotamus is calm as a boa constrictor ...
And most of all people in Africa die from hippos. Even an elephant shows this for a very long time before attacking. Therefore, there are practically no people who immediately punch you in the face. Purely theoretically, this, of course, can happen, but this is more the exception than the rule. Before giving it to the eye, the person “shows” it. Therefore, it is important to be able to read the feedback.
"SP": - What helped you in your formation?
You need to be in the right place at the right time. Nobody will ever teach this. It is impossible to explain.
Child behavior is a good example. Because, as a rule, the child copies mom and dad. And if we say one thing to children, but behave differently, he has a terrible dissonance in his head. Everything in the world is happening in the same way. Therefore, you need to be honest with yourself and start with yourself!
In response to this material, Andrey Volokhov, Managing Partner of VAP Consulting, commented on the situation from the standpoint of the hotel business and tourism:.
What about the money supply, and what to prepare for?
“Figures on the money supply from the Central Bank come with some delay. Today we see on a special chart called the “money multiplier”. It shows the so-called "red zones" - the crisis years for Russia - these are 2008, 2014 and now - since February 2018 - the time when the Central Bank prints money faster. The economy does not create money, it spends it somewhere. Roughly speaking, our economy is working at a disadvantage. The Central Bank prints money, but less money reaches real people, the real economy, ”says Vladimir Levchenko.
According to him, this situation manifested itself for the first time in the fall of 2017, for a short while we found ourselves in the situation of 2008-2009. At the moment, the picture is the same with only one difference - the growth rates of the monetary base and money supply this year, as in 2014, have been declining, but now they are growing. This is an important point. What does it mean for an ordinary citizen of Russia?
This means that the economy is not working. This situation is close to a powerful crisis to the level and likeness of 2008 and 2014. However, practically none of the market analysts pays attention to the situation.
What can save the situation?
Historically, this is an increase in oil prices in rubles. Today's sanctions hit the Russian oil industry. In the past crisis years, all oil experts said that Russia was expecting a drop in production in the near future. It was scary. Even if oil prices fall to a critical level, the ruble will support the profitability of the business. Production is growing - the company's indicators are growing.
2014 saw a sharp rise in oil exports. We immediately came across a number of tough scenarios: a drop in oil prices, a drop in exports, a large volume of external payments. Now we are faced with sanctions and external debts. There are not so many of them, but it is more difficult to maintain them - because of the sanctions. This is one of the reasons for the decline in the efficiency of the economy.
“Residents of Russia will be banned from using the world's financial benefits - this is a dubious argument,” says a financial expert, commenting on the current situation in the country. “Now it is clear that the Ministry of Finance will buy currency indefinitely - it says only one thing: officials are preparing for the financial Armageddon. The worst thing that can happen is that the ruble will not fall. This means only one thing - the credit squeeze in the image and likeness of 2008. The central bank continues to actively print rubles now, and this is good. The Central Bank chooses the best scenario for itself. "
“Today the money supply is growing faster than the growth of foreign exchange reserves,” continues Vladimir Levchenko, “The Central Bank prints money, the Ministry of Finance buys currency with it, and part of the printed money disappears - there are many“ holes ”in the economy. There are still more extra rubles ”.
Over the past 2.5 years, the ruble has grown by 35% against the dollar. For example, the Turkish lira fell 2.5 times against the dollar during this time. The ruble could be seriously devalued.
What is needed for import substitution in the country?
After the imposition of sanctions, Russian entrepreneurs close to the authorities actively developed their activities in the field of agricultural production, processing - this is good for the economy - let’s omit the issue of the quality of products. How do they do business and what do they need? Zero or negative interest rates. To keep the cost of a bank loan at or below inflation. For these purposes, it is necessary for the ruble to fall continuously so that inflation remains at an average level of 6-7%. And so that the interest rate is about the same - says the financial analyst.
Such an outcome leads to permanent devaluation of the currency, because no one needs it - it makes no sense to invest. Under such conditions, it is interesting to develop domestic production: the currency is cheap, money is invested, which is practically not given back, and there is also an additional payment due to inflation. The goods that are produced in the country, thus, become cheaper. Proceeding from the fact that today everything is more expensive here than in Europe or the USA, this mechanism will clearly coincide with the strategy of the country's leadership.
“The world economy grows only with a weak dollar,” the expert concludes. “This is an exact fact over the past 60 years. Earlier, market experts warned that acceleration of global economic growth is expected. Nothing like this happens even without trade wars. If the dollar strengthens, the world economy will be weaker. The next point is that oil today is extremely overvalued - both in relation to gold and to all other commodities. Over the past year, oil has been growing against the stagnation and decline in the rest of the raw materials. This is a classic pre-crisis scenario, after which oil falls. If, when the price of oil, which has already begun, falls, our ruble will not fall, it means that the “game of the rat king” has begun at the top. This is a disaster: 1000 rubles per dollar is better than the collapse of the country. "
When can the "game of the handsome king" begin? First, if problems begin with the transfer of power. Secondly, if after the transfer of power, which goes smoothly, problems arise, because the very process of governance will be wedged by rough edges.
“If the volume of business in the country increases, then everything is calm and stable upstairs. If friction begins, including credit squeeze, big business is actually forced to sell assets - this is already a problem, ”the expert summed up.
Education
In 1994 he graduated from the Rostov Institute of National Economy with a degree in finance, credit, money circulation.
Has the qualification certificates of the Federal Financial Markets Service of the 1.0 and 5.0 series.
Labor activity
He has been working on the Russian stock market for over ten years. He started as head of the stock department of the South Region Bank. Later, in 1998, he worked at the MFC - Renaissance.
In 1999, he was a currency dealer of SBS-Agro Bank. Then, until 2001, he worked at Vneshtorgbank (VTB).
In 2001-2002 he worked as a client relations specialist at Troika-Dialog Investment Company. In 2002-2003, he worked at Centrinvest Securities Investment Company.
In 2003, he became an asset manager at Antanta Capital Investment Company. In 2006, he moved to a similar position at AG Capital, where in 2008 he took the position of Managing Director.
In May 2009, he became an asset manager at Pilgrim Asset Management, where he took up individual trust management and collective investment management.
Since 2009, he has been an exchange expert at Business FM, created and maintains his own personal website www.v-levchenko.ru, on which there are more than 15 thousand registered users.
Video:
In February 2018, he became the brand ambassador for the commission-free cryptocurrency exchange Cobinhood in Russia.
Hobbies
Hobby is sports. At one time he was the champion of the south of Russia in bodybuilding. His favorite saying is the parable about the student and teacher from Taoism, the moral of which says: live your own life, not someone else's.
Family status
Married since 2005, wife - Tatiana.
