What awaits the ruble in 2018? Under what conditions will it begin to strengthen, and under what conditions can it fall? Should you invest in foreign currency in the new year? Financial analysts answered these questions at the request of AiF.ru.
"Calm first half of the year, tense second"
Gleb Zadoya, Head of the Analytics Department of ANALITIKA Online financial company:“2018 for the ruble will be a very interesting time, when its exchange rate will change by 12-15% in both directions, and at the end of the year, traditionally, it will weaken.
Real changes in the economy will support the ruble, and it will strengthen by the March elections and for some time after them (after the correction immediately after the elections due to the movements of foreign investors' funds). The most difficult months for the ruble will be at the beginning of the year and in autumn, when additional funds will be required to fulfill the instructions of the new president, and money from exports and import duties may not be enough. The population cannot be directly touched, so the ruble will take a blow: in the fall it will begin to recede. Unlike previous political and economic changes after the elections, the traditional weakening of the ruble will be lower than the previous ones, but by 12-15% by the end of the year, the correction will reach.
Oil prices will help keep the budget without serious losses, and sanctions will allow some of the assets to be returned home. Social projects, as well as general well-being (medicine, accessibility of services, increasing the minimum wage), will remain a priority for the government, but to fully cover them, the ruble will have to be weakened, because only with foreign exchange earnings now something can be done quickly and efficiently, and the receipt of funds from investing in the country will not immediately return. "
"The ruble can collapse the US sanctions"
Sergey Drozdov, analyst at Finam investment company:“The expectations of the next sanctions against the Russian financial sector will have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. The new package of sanctions should be announced by the end of January 2018. In the strict version, this package may contain a ban on the purchase of domestic OFZ (federal loan bonds - ed.) By foreign investors. So now one can only hope that the measures of the American department will be of a recommendatory nature and will not prohibit the purchase of new issues of OFZ. Otherwise, the ruble may sink to 63-65 per US dollar.
In the first half of 2018, I do not expect the ruble to be above 65 against the US dollar and 77 against the euro. And now it is difficult to predict what will happen in the second half of the year ”.
"Don't Get Rid of Oil"
Vasily Karpunin, head of the expert department of the financial company "BCS Express":“The Russian ruble remains a currency heavily tied to oil prices. But oil is, of course, an important, but not the only factor influencing the exchange rate of the national currency. If we compare oil prices and the liquidity situation in the Russian banking sector, we will see that the effect of the increase in oil prices was largely neutralized by a parallel increase in the liquidity surplus, which reached its all-time high at the end of November 2017 (about 1,600- RUB 1,800 billion).
Nevertheless, even if we assume that the price of a barrel of Brent rises to $ 70, the dollar rate is unlikely to be able to confidently fall below 55 rubles. In this regard, the potential for strengthening the national currency looks limited. The factor of declining inflation in 2018 will be replaced by an acceleration in price growth to the target 4%.
In 2018, the behavior of non-residents will play an important role in the light of the risks associated with the imposition of sanctions on the Russian public debt. The climax is scheduled for February. On the eve of the announcement of the US sanctions decision, the ruble may be under pressure.
With an average annual oil price of $ 65 per barrel, the expected average dollar rate in 2018 will be about 56.3 rubles. ”
"The euro will rise in price against the ruble"
Andrey Dyachenko, Head of the Department of the financial company Private Solutions Сastle Family Office in Russia and the CIS:“In 2018, it is worth being mentally prepared for fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, despite all the efforts of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. There will be plenty of reasons for this. First, the elections. It is completely unclear what the new cabinet will be like, what adjustments will be made to the financial and economic policy. If the adjustments turn out to be significant, this will lead to a change in the forecast models, and hence to a change in the benchmarks for the ruble exchange rate. Most likely, such adjustments will be in the direction of an even greater weakening of the ruble than is currently planned.
Secondly, the policy of the Central Bank on the further fate of interest rates.
If inflation continues to remain low and savings are not transformed into consumption, the regulator will reduce the key rate. At the first stage, this will lead to an inflow of speculative capital (and a demand for rubles), willing to play on the growth of OFZ quotes. But in the future, the effect will be the opposite: the low profitability of ruble instruments will force foreigners to look for other sources of profitability, which will add to the amount of outflow and the demand for foreign currency.
Another constant factor is the dynamics of oil prices. In the first and second quarters of 2018, analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a surplus in the oil market. This means cheaper oil and, accordingly, a depreciation of the ruble.
Surprises from the economy may have a positive impact: growth in production and the economy as a whole may turn out to be significantly higher than economists' expectations. In this scenario, the Ministry of Finance will have to enter the market and carry out restraining interventions in order to prevent excessive strengthening of the national currency.
I would also call the promotion and integration in the Asian market a positive factor for the ruble. Both in terms of the supply of our products and in the financial market: attracting Asian investors in debt instruments and in joint projects. Well, and attracting direct investors who will occupy the vacated positions of the outgoing Western ones.
Global factors will also leave their mark on the ruble exchange rate. Thus, the weakening of the US dollar against the euro will help the ruble, while a possible increase in tensions on the Middle East front will, on the contrary, weaken it.
With all these and other factors, the ruble by the end of 2018 will tend to weaken both against the dollar and against the euro. Even in the most positive combination of factors, the dollar will tend to 65-67 rubles, while the euro may strengthen to 81-85 rubles. "
"On the hook with the Central Bank and sanctions"
Evgeny Volkov, Head of Brokerage Operations Department, RosEvroBank:
“In 2018, several factors will put pressure on the Russian currency. One of them is the policy of the Central Bank, which aims to gradually reduce the key rate.
Sanctions will remain a factor influencing the ruble exchange rate. However, they will be rather local in nature, since they no longer exert such a global influence as before. Sanctions have become not so much a restrictive tool for Russia as a habitual, ongoing attempt to bring down the Russian economy.
Perhaps March will be a difficult month, when the world market will look for any opportunities for the collapse of the Russian ruble amid the presidential elections. "
Experts provide a Forecast for the dollar for 2018 based on the possible price of oil, the application of sanctions and the results of the March elections. Their numbers differ, but all analysts unanimously speak of a 10-15% correction by the end of the year. Most likely, the biggest changes will occur in the second quarter of this year. How it will actually be - we read further.
In the first three months of 2018. The Russians are unlikely to face an increase in the dollar exchange rate in the first quarter. Moreover, there is a slight, but still strengthening of the ruble against the US currency. This correction is most likely temporary. In the first quarter, we may still see both an increase and a decrease in the exchange rate by 5-10%. Some analysts cite other fluctuation figures - up to 15%.
There are two prediction options:
- The dollar / ruble exchange rate will vary from 56 to 62 rubles during the year. At the end of 2018, it will remain at 62 rubles.
- The dollar rate in 2018 will also fluctuate from 57 to 62 rubles, and then decline to the first mark (57).
As you can see, no special jumps and falls are expected. The strengthening of the ruble will take place in different periods. For example, the demand for it will be high when taxes are paid. But we can already say for sure that oil has little effect on the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2018. What will have the greatest impact on him - we will consider further.
Many analysts and experts unanimously argue that anti-Russian sanctions may still affect the dollar exchange rate in 2018. It is too early to give forecasts, but we will learn about all the sanctions at the end of January. The most critical option for the financial segment is a ban on the purchase of Federal Law bonds (federal loan) by foreign investors. Then the dollar rate can creep up and reach 65 rubles. But there is still hope that all US sanctions will only be in the nature of recommendations.
In fact, foreign policy relations play a big role. It is not yet known whether Russia will be subject to sanctions. Perhaps the Trump administration will only voice advisory restrictions. But if they touch on bonds, then Russian securities will become less attractive. Much less demand awaits them on the exchanges, which will lead to the exchange rate of the ruble in the beginning of 2018. Forecasts in this case are disappointing, although no one predicts more than 65 rubles per dollar. At this point, the fall of the ruble is likely to stop.
Already, all forecasts are made taking into account the fact that in 2018 there will be presidential elections in Russia. If, nevertheless, there is a change of power, the ruble will lose its stability. Many note that there is no particular intrigue in the election results. If the government does not change, then the dollar / ruble exchange rate in 2018 is unlikely to change much. It will remain within the range of 57-65 rubles, no more and no less.
Of course, if the elections are held without a change of the legitimate president, then this will have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble. But do not forget that the foreign economic activity of Russia is also important. If the president chooses the right vectors, is able to conclude the necessary agreements and weaken the impact of sanctions, then we will face the strengthening of the ruble.
As before, and now the value of the ruble in relation to other currencies is highly dependent on oil. Yes, it is not the only factor that affects the course, but it cannot be ruled out. Experts are already making a forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018, taking into account the influence of the oil price.
Although, if we analyze the end of 2017, then the picture will be in a different light. Then the impact of oil was offset by an increase in the liquidity surplus in the banking sector. In November last year, the indicator reached its maximum - almost 1800 billion rubles.
If we take into account the impact of oil prices, it is predicted that the price may rise to $ 70 per barrel. But even in this case, the dollar rate is unlikely to fall below 55 rubles. If the price of oil is about $ 65, then the same 56 rubles will have to be paid for $ 1.
Experts point out that in the first half of the year, one should not expect any special changes. The forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018 is given, taking into account the fact that all changes will take place precisely in the second half of the year. In addition, the majority report that the ruble will weaken at the end of the year.
First, when the 2018 elections start in March, we will see the strengthening of the national currency. Perhaps, it will also happen at the end of the presidential race. It all depends on the money that comes from duties and exports. They will be required in the second half of the year to fulfill the president's instructions. If there is not as much money as expected, then the dollar rate will go up, the ruble will stagger.
The ruble is forecast to deteriorate in autumn. Most likely, a correction will occur. In general, during 2018 it will be about 15%. An insignificant role will be played by the price of oil and sanctions from the United States and the world community. If the assets return to Russia, it will be possible to weaken the ruble slightly, but slightly.
All these measures will not affect the population itself. The main blow will fall on the national currency. To obscure social programs and projects will also require impressive funds. In order to somehow cover these costs, it will be necessary to abandon the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble. Only foreign exchange earnings will help to fill holes in the budget and implement all social programs.
The Ministry of Economic Development gave other figures regarding the rates of economic development. They are now much reduced. So for 2018, 0.9% GDP growth is forecasted, when a different figure was previously proposed - 1.7%. It turns out that the show has almost halved. The ministry reports that the rate of industrial growth will slow down. They will affect the GDP indicators, which will also decline.
The forecast was made taking into account the fact that oil prices will be around $ 40 per barrel. Also, the Ministry has several options for the development of the situation. For example, the baseline scenario says that the dollar rate will be about 69 rubles. It is predicted that in 2019 the figure will increase to 70-71 rubles. It turns out that by the end of 2018, as expected, the steering wheel will become unstable and creep down.
Before that, the Ministry of Economic Development gave a slightly different forecast for 2018. In it, the dollar exchange rate was only 65 rubles this year, and for 2019 - 64. Most likely, the Ministry makes it clear that the budget should be laid without raising taxes. You can do without this measure, which, of course, greatly affects the population.
The ruble can still strengthen in 2018, but the exchange rate largely depends on the country's policy. It is important that all decisions are made for the benefit of the population and the country, taking into account the interests of all parties. Whether there will be a tax break to the detriment of the exchange rate is unknown. Most likely, all measures will be aimed at strengthening the ruble.
The growth of the national currency also depends on the situation with securities. If Western investors buy them, as well as inject capital into Russian companies, the dollar rate will decline in 2018. So far, there is no particular activity on the part of investors, and the situation with the federal loan bonds is not clear. If external sanctions are applied on them, then the dollar rate will burst upward.
Not much attention is paid to oil and its price now, but in vain. From its sale, the budget of the Russian Federation is replenished, which also affects the national currency. The cost of one barrel is also important. It directly affects the dollar against the ruble. If the price of oil falls, then the same will happen with the country's currency. An increase, on the contrary, will only strengthen it.
To a large extent, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2018 depends on the growth rate of GDP and national production. If the indicators grow, then the national currency will strengthen. For example, with an increase in production volumes, the indicators of export and proceeds from it will also increase. This will have a positive effect on the country's budget and the ruble exchange rate. So far, we see that the Ministry of Economic Development predicts a slight increase in GDP and production growth rates - less than 1%.
One more factor influencing the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble is not excluded. This is the attitude of the population to deposits in national currency. The more there are, the better the lending sector develops. It is important that foreign investors pour in funds in rubles. It is important to increase the confidence of the population and non-residents in the national currency. In this case, we will see not only economic growth, but also a strengthening of the ruble.
Forecasts for 2018 vary significantly. Experts report different figures - from 56 to 67 rubles for 1 dollar. It is worth waiting for the end of January and the March elections to clarify the situation a little. Then the forecasts will become more reasoned and accurate.
What is the future of the dollar in 2018? Will the ruble rise or fall? What currency should you keep your savings in? What events on a global and Russian scale will affect the dynamics of the exchange rate?
In our article you will find answers to these and other questions of interest to every civilized person. We present a detailed forecast of the ruble / dollar exchange rate for the current year from professional financial analysts, as well as the basic rules for storing and converting money in 2018.
It's time to dramatically improve your financial literacy! Ruble - forward!
1. Waiting for the FIFA World Cup
According to many experts, we will have a bright and memorable year in terms of exchange rate fluctuations. Shaking and fever will be strong - some will probably get dim in the eyes. Expect two or three strong jumps and many moderate ones.
2018 has just begun, and the exchange rates of the ruble / dollar pair fell by almost 1.5% in the auctions compared to the end of 17.
In addition, over the past 10 days, speculative players have formed a net long position in the ruble by almost 10%, as evidenced by the data of the US Commodity Futures Commission.
At the same time, players are betting on the strengthening of the Russian currency for 18 weeks in a row after 2.5 months of short positions.
Analysts warn that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will be engaged in pumping out excess foreign exchange liquidity throughout the year, playing against the ruble and receiving income from the budget - mainly at the expense of importers and citizens.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced plans for the current year. He believes that the total volume of foreign exchange purchases on the domestic Russian market will be RUB 2 trillion with an average oil price of $ 54-55 per barrel. If the cost rises to $ 60, then the amount will be RUB 2.8 trillion.
Export proceeds from the market will be withdrawn. What should ordinary citizens do with their foreign exchange and ruble reserves? Experts recommend not to rush and wait for the 2018 football World Cup, and by the end of it, buy more currencies at the most favorable price.
2. The weather makes its own adjustments
The position of the dollar against other currencies in the global basket is gradually weakening. This is due to the propensity of large investors to take risks - they come to emerging markets and support them, which brings unpredictability to the global economy.
America failed to occupy the niche of the EU's raw material appendage - an exporter of gas and oil. Freezing temperatures forced European countries to buy gas from Russia. Free resources had to be purchased under short-term contracts in small quantities and at obviously increased prices.
In the future, the United States will try to make up for lost time by reviving real production and a large-scale revival of the country's infrastructure.
Tax policy now allows companies to work successfully not only from offshore zones, but also with national roots. Some strengthening of the dollar will occur due to the inflow of funds from emerging markets.
3. How will the dollar exchange rate change on the Russian market?
The balance in trade will be positive due to the positive export of resources - oil, gas, timber, metals and rolled products, fish and agricultural - and high-tech products: products of the military-industrial complex, civil aviation, space programs, the nuclear industry, software.
So far, only confusion with funds for business development from the banking, insurance and pension industries is holding back a real spurt in currency growth.
On the Russian market, the value of the dollar will be:
- decline due to the cost of oil and the overall positive trade balance;
- going up - due to the actions of the RF Ministry of Finance and some revival of importers who need purchases from abroad - possibly through third parties (due to sanctions).
Mainly due to the cost of oil, the ruble will strengthen its position in 2018.
Unfortunately, payments on loans to foreign lenders still affect the value of currencies in Russia, especially before the end of the payment period. 2018 will be no exception, but as you can see from 2017, this influence is getting weaker, since the turning point has already occurred.
At the same time, there are few foreign funds on the domestic Russian market. No economic actions can cause a massive inflow of funds, but their projected outflow in February-March will not be shocking.
Many investors and financial companies are even waiting for this time to increase their income. To make money on sanctions and on the Brexit expected in March (Britain's exit from the EU), what could be more pleasant for a Russian businessman-patriot ?!
Europe still remains a stable market participant, but large central banks and funds are beginning to seriously prepare for the reduction of EU members, since this is an unprecedented event in recent world history.
Alas, the uncertainty in the markets will unnerve the participants until the moment the United Kingdom leaves the EU.
The majority of depositors are not ready to deeply study the fundamental detailed analysis and trades on intraday signals, therefore the best option would be to keep finance in a dual-currency basket. It is desirable that the share of the dollar is in the area 55-56% of the total amount of funds.
4. Currency slides in the summer-autumn period
Now let's talk about the decline in the value of the dollar against the ruble. Traditionally, this time is summer, but this year is special. For the first time in the Russian Federation, the World Cup is being held.
For a whole month, millions of tourists will create a massive influx of currency, which will contribute to the downward trend, despite all the efforts of the Ministry of Finance. The corridor will follow the trend below 53 rubles for the dollar.
The next (and last leap in the year), but in the opposite direction, will be the autumn correction. Its strength will directly depend on those factors that will become clear only at the end of the first half of the year, at the end of the Winter Olympics, and then the elections of the President of the Russian Federation in the spring.
This correction will raise the dollar to the winter values of 2017, namely, to 58-60 rubles for the dollar. Until the end of the year, the course will not leave this corridor.
5. How will cryptocurrency affect the rate
You may ask: why did we not say anything about the newfangled cryptocurrencies, which only the lazy is not writing or talking about now?
Alas (or fortunately for some), blockchain technology has not led to the creation of a truly independent and stable currency. All existing crypts are overly volatile assets.
The current course is not supported by anything other than demand and faith. The path of investing in bitcoin is in a sense a dead end, but one cannot say that it is pointless to move in this direction.
6. What about the sanctions?
As for the sanctions, the expectations of most investors are that the restrictions will affect only new issues of OFZ (Federal Loan Bonds), which means that in February there will be no serious shocks either in Russia or in the EU.
Russia will have to borrow more domestically and in Asia, fortunately because of Syria, we still have a reserve of trust there, which, if necessary, can be spent on resolving economic issues.
7. How to make money on the exchange rate - roadmap for 2018
Ruble is expected to stabilize in 2018
Working with the currency this year will be as interesting and difficult as in the previous year, but the main milestones of the changes are known in advance. You need to arm yourself with patience and resources now.
Things to remember for the current year:
- It is better to store funds for trading in a dual-currency basket.
- It is desirable to have more than 50% in dollars in it by February, and in March to increase the share in euros after England's exit from the EU.
- Buy more currencies in the summer closer to the end of the World Cup.
- In the fall, sell a part, when there is a clear increase in the value of the basket, withdraw the cash or invest in other investment instruments.
- The most optimal would be to open special foreign currency deposits in banks or exchange accounts on Forex.
8. Conclusion
We will keep you informed of further developments and tell you about all the changes taking place in the international and domestic financial markets.
We wish you successful investments and profitable exchange transactions! Until next time!
- Expert of the portal "Papa Helped" on financial issues. The topic of the new article of our magazine is more relevant than ever - the relationship between the ruble and the dollar in the light of the current political and economic situation in Russia.
People love to make predictions and listen to them - it's a way to prepare for future changes and take the right direction in the present. It so happened that the economy of our country and the well-being of its population depend on the dollar exchange rate - the main reserve currency on the planet.
Predicting changes in the exchange rate of American money against the ruble is a thankless task, but necessary. A competent analysis of influencing factors will save you from losing finances and protect your money.
Looking ahead, I will say that my personal opinion is that the dollar in 2018-2019 will "walk" in the corridor between 64 and 76 rubles... There is no need to wait for global changes.
We read the article to the end - a lot of interesting things are waiting for you!
In this article, you will find THREE possible scenarios regarding the price of the dollar and its future as a currency.What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 options for the development of events
What to believe in an ordinary citizen? How to save your savings from inflation and increase the value of your assets? What predictions can you trust?
Perhaps, each of us has such a friend who knows exactly what will happen to the country's economy and finances in the near future. And then there are media analysts who say the opposite. The question of whose opinion to choose becomes key.
Right now, forecasters are offering a choice of as many as three options for the development of events relative to the dollar rate. Let's consider them in detail.
The occurrence of these options has different probabilities, but none of them should be ruled out.
Option 1. The dollar will rise to 90 rubles
Over the past year, the ruble has fallen by 20%. A scenario in which the same will happen next year is quite likely. No one is going to lift the sanctions, but on the contrary, they are being tightened even more.
The sanctions are drowning the ruble, but it is still alive. Russia believes in the best! Relations with Ukraine are not improving, and prices for oil, gas and other natural energy sources are not growing significantly. State budget of the Russian Federation 70% consists of revenue from minerals... Should the price of oil fall by at least a fraction of a percent, and this will inevitably affect the position of the ruble.
Another significant point is the outflow of capital from the Russian economy. According to statistics, the churn is more than10 billion rubles per month . Foreign investors are leaving, and people who have substantial funds prefer to keep their savings in foreign banks. GDP is also not growing, which means that it is becoming more and more difficult to maintain the national currency by production.
Option 2. The dollar will fall below 50 rubles
This point of view is shared by a small group of experts. This is not a matter of patriotism: adherents of this scenario believe that the Russian financial system has sufficient reserves. And it will be enough not only for the stabilization of the exchange rate, but also for the gradual growth of the ruble against the dollar.
The increase in the Central Bank rate is an indirect factor in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. Experts who are sharp in their forecasts do not promise a too sharp rise of the ruble, but they also do not believe in its fall, especially in the first half of 2019.
According to their calculations, the cost $$ will fluctuate in the range 63-66 rubles for one "green president".
Option 3. The dollar will "walk in the corridor" between 60 and 80 rubles
This is the most sober and reasonable scenario. Its adherents believe that nothing extraordinary will happen to the quotes. The trend of a slow decline in the value of the ruble will continue, but no major shocks are expected in 2019.
Which prediction to believe is the question. According to the government, ordinary citizens have nothing to fear. In Russia, local producers have gradually awakened from hibernation, and the tightening of sanctions will in no way affect the domestic economic situation. Maybe so, who knows ...
But the population is afraid of such a forecast. However, he does not see any reason to urgently buy dollars, despite the current political situation.
Below I have clearly shown what factors will lead to each of the three options described above.
Comparison table of predictions:
In Russia, the exchange rate depends not only on the economy, but also on politics. It is all the more difficult to make financial forecasts even for the next few months. Even the Hydrometeorological Center often makes mistakes in weather predictions, what to expect from forecasters of the exchange rate, which is even more changeable than the weather.
Whatever one may say, but we are still dependent on oil ... And yet, chiIt is necessary to study and analyze currency forecasts, and for the following reasons:
- you will know whether it is worth investing in dollars in the near future or whether it is better to keep assets in national currency;
- save your capital in the event of a sharp drop in the RUR rate;
- make money on quotes;
- you will have time to exchange one money for another at a favorable rate before everyone else does it.
The current ratio of the ruble / dollar pair is a kind of indicator indicating what changes and what kind of life awaits us in the near future. But it is extremely difficult to predict currency quotes when you do not know all the plans of the US and Russian governments.
Illustrative example
While I was preparing this article, a key event occurred in the financial policy of Russia: The central bank raised the key rate for the first time since 2014... The reason for this decision is to reduce the risks of inflation, to prevent a sharp collapse of the ruble. The strengthening of the ruble currency should stop the growth of the dollar in 2018-2019. But there are many other factors that can significantly affect the expectations of the central bank.
Dollar forecast - what Russian and foreign economists are talking about
Now let's turn to specific specialists. I will warn you right away that the opinions given below should not be considered as a guide to action. They are given for informational purposes to show the most characteristic trends among analysts and economic forecasters.
Alpari analysts
Experts from the analytical center of the Alpari company believe that the rate hike will prevent the ruble from sliding further down. In addition, there is a tendency towards an increase in oil prices. If the indicator stays above 80$ per barrel, there is a possibility of stabilization of the national currency.
Analysts believe that now the only factor negatively affecting the ruble is the geopolitical background. The "real" exchange rate (economically determined) is now approximately 63 rubles .
Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin
The representative of the government of the Russian Federation is no less optimistic and predicts for the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 the value of the dollar within 63-64 rubles... Maxim Oreshkin said that he sees no reason for the growth of quotations.
In his opinion, there are three factors that play for the ruble:
- the expected embargo against Iran;
- reduction in oil production in a number of OPEC states;
- explosion of the Iraqi gas pipeline.
However, volatility (fluctuations in the exchange rate) will be significant. For the ordinary population, this means that you should not give in to panic and transfer savings from one currency to another, especially when you do it repeatedly. Only those who have experience working on the stock exchange should engage in speculation.
Where to see the dollar chart online in real time
The best option is to look at charts on the official websites of Russian banks or large trading resources such as Finam or BCS.
However, there are a lot of portals on financial topics that publish a chart of the movement of quotes in real time - any brokers or exchanges provide such a service to everyone.
It is also very convenient to see the dollar chart for different periods on Investing.com.
Dollar chart from Investing.com The law banning the dollar in the Russian Federation - rumor or truth
The introduction of new sanctions on the Russian financial system could jeopardize the dollar savings of the population. However, the Central Bank, the government and commercial banks (in particular, VTB) intend to protect the deposits of ordinary citizens.
If the US government prohibits the use of the US national currency by Russian banks, depositors will return their savings in other money. Which ones are still unknown. The head of VTB A. Kostin is confident that the Russian banking system will be able to cope with the consequences of such sanctions. Moreover, he doubts that such measures will be taken at all.
A complete independent departure from the use of the dollar in the Russian economic and financial system requires measures at the state level. This is exactly what the professor of the Russian Higher School of Economics A. Abramov thinks. In an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he said that "de-dollarization" is a good idea in itself and should exclude periodic devaluations of the ruble, which now occur every 7-8 years.
To avoid this, it is necessary to change the one-sided structure of the domestic economy, which constantly depends on the price of natural resources. People will believe in the ruble if the government is able to "decouple the country's economy from oil prices."
What does the future hold for the dollar? Will oil be sold for rubles? What do you think? Nevertheless, already now, settlements between the Russian Federation and its closest neighbors (the countries of the former USSR) are carried out mainly in rubles. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev believes that if this trend continues and continues to progress, then in 2 years it will be possible to seriously think about the de-dollarization of Russia. But in the coming months, such an idea is not feasible. This means that the law banning the dollar in Russia is still nothing more than a rumor.
Frequently asked questions about the dollar exchange rate and its future
And now the answers to the most pressing questions of our readers about the fate of the ruble and the dollar in the foreseeable future.
If you do not find the answer to your question, ask it in the comments.
These are the most popular questions about the dollar from all over the Russian Internet. Maybe yours is among them? Question 1. When will the dollar fall? Vladimir, 32 years old, Moscow
Partially there is an answer to this question above: when the price of oil rises or the Russian economy ceases to depend on fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. This is unlikely to happen in the near future.
Question 2. Is it worth believing the news about the dollar, and if so, which one? Ekaterina, 42 years old, Voronezh
It is impossible to unconditionally believe all the news, rumors, forecasts and conjectures in any case. Even the assurances of the government should not be 100% trusted. However, people of the older generation know this anyway.
Question 3. What dynamics of the dollar is likely to await us in 2018-2019? Oleg, 29 years old, Stavropol
As I said, volatility (rate fluctuation) will definitely be present in the next 6 months. But in which direction the graph will move - decrease or increase - no one knows.
Maxim Oreshkin, already mentioned by us, advises Russians to get rid of dollars and buy rubles. His prediction is decrease in the value of the American currency to 63 rubles... Another question: even if this happens, where are the guarantees that the next jump will not bring quotes back to the previous level?
Question 4. Will the dollar rise or fall next year? Victor, 35 years old, Kazan
Professional experts working in the largest companies in Russia and the world have in their arsenal huge amounts of information and the most modern software for calculating the probabilities of events based on statistics, exchange fluctuations and other influencing factors. But even they regularly make mistakes in their predictions.
In calm economic periods, their forecasts are more reliable, but few people need them. But with the advent of unstable times, economic analyzes become less reliable. This happens because no one can take into account all the diversity of life in their forecasts.
In other words, there is no exact answer to this question. No one really knows what will happen to the national currency in the coming months.
Question 5. Is it worth buying dollars now to make money on its growth in the future? Igor, 37 years old, Tambov
This is the key question. People are not as interested in political intrigue as in their own savings. If the savings are constantly kept in rubles, inflation will destroy the profit on the deposit. Foreign currency deposits are more promising in terms of preserving and increasing funds. But not always.
Therefore, experts advise balancing risks and distributing assets across three major currencies at once. If you keep money in rubles, dollars and euros in a 40/30/30 ratio, the probability of losing funds will be minimal.
Question 6. I do not understand what is happening with the dollar, why is its rate jumping so much? Lyudmila, 27 years old, Simferopol
It is not the dollar that is jumping, but the ruble against the dollar. By itself, the value of the dollar remains at about the same level. This does not mean that American money is not subject to inflation and other processes inherent in any currency. It's just that this is not happening as abruptly as in the case of our domestic currency.
Question 8. Like many people, I recently asked myself a question - when will the dollar collapse, because the US national debt has crossed all permissible limits for a long time, and if this happens, what will happen to the world economy? Nikolay, 54 years old, Vladivostok
Yes, the US national debt has already exceeded the country's GDP, and the US government solves all financial problems in the simplest way - it turns on the printing press. The system is not backed by anything material and nevertheless it works.
Experts say that the dollar will serve as the world's reserve currency until then, as long as countries use this money for international settlements and store it in domestic banks. Another factor in the stability of the dollar is the political strength of the United States. As long as the country is considered, its money, even if not backed by anything, will be in demand.
The whole drama of the situation is that if an economic crisis occurs in the United States, it will affect the entire world economy, including the Russian one.
Be sure to watch the recent speech of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, where he proposes to abandon the dollar, which, in general, is logical from his words:
conclusions
Everyone is interested in the dollar exchange rate - from housewives to stock exchange traders. Millions of people around the world hold their assets in dollars. It is the number one reserve currency in the Russian Federation and a reliable financial instrument.
Everyone loves dollars, and not because they adore America. It's just that the dollar has a habit of steadily growing in value against many other national currencies. This does not mean that US money is not subject to periodic fluctuations in value. This also happens to them, only not as clearly and often as with the ruble.
Need to remember:
- The ruble exchange rate depends on both the economy and geopolitics.
- No expert can give a 100% correct forecast, since they cannot take into account all the variety of factors.
- It is safest to keep your savings in several currencies.
- It is even safer to invest assets in more profitable instruments (stocks and bonds).
So, the answer to the question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future does not have a clear answer. And it is worth making money on speculation only if you have experience in stock trading. And the common man is better off keeping money in various financial instruments in addition to currency: real estate, precious metals, mutual funds (mutual funds).
P.S. Friends, what do you think will happen to the dollar in the near future? Leave your comments under the article, and I will definitely answer them!
I wish you material well-being!
Best regards, financial expert of the business magazine "PAPA HELP",
(14 estimates, average: 4,43 out of 5)
Many people would like to know how the exchange rate of the national currency will change in the near future. The interest of stock speculators and traders is quite understandable - they earn money on its fluctuations, but for ordinary citizens this information can be much more useful than it seems.
The weakening of the national currency leads to an increase in inflation, and is reflected in the prices of goods and products. The strength and weakness of the currency affects bank interest rates on loans and deposits for the mortgage lending program and many more financial indicators.
The main world currency is the American dollar, because it is to it that the main currency pairs and raw materials are tied. Therefore, the strength of the national currency largely depends on how its value changes in relation to the USD.
The American currency depends on many factors, which can be conditionally divided into economic and political. The latter include geopolitical events involving the United States and the political situation within the country.
Since the geopolitical interests of the United States are represented all over the world, any tension in the situation can have a strong impact on the USD. An example of this is the conflict with the DPRK, when any statements by the leaders of both sides have a serious impact on the quotes of the American currency.
Political tension in the United States itself is expressed by the eternal confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, which is expressed in problems with the adoption of various laws and reforms. For example, in November-December 2017, the dollar exchange rate fluctuated very strongly in anticipation of the adoption of the tax reform proposed by President Trump.
There are many economic factors affecting USD, and here are the main ones:
- the cost of oil;
- the Fed's decision on the interest rate;
- the yield on government bonds;
- various economic indicators and indices;
- natural disasters.
The cost of oil is a powerful catalyst for many banknotes. In the case of the dollar, an increase in the cost of a barrel of oil negatively affects the currency, while a decrease leads to an increase in the USD. The explanation is very simple - oil is traded in US dollars and with an increase in its value, the demand for US currency for purchase increases, and the demand for currency leads to an increase in its quotations.
The interest rate of the Central Bank (in the case of the USA - the FRS) influences the credit policy within the country. A high interest rate encourages savings and currency savings, and a low interest rate encourages more active spending.
The situation is similar with the yield on government bonds - the higher it is, the more attractive the American currency is for investors. Economic indicators have a short-term impact on the currency as they are published once a week. But natural disasters, or rather their consequences can seriously collapse any currency, in August 2017 the USD collapsed due to the activities of Hurricane Harvey.
In 2017, the weighted average US dollar rate was 58.33 rubles. Its monthly dynamics from January to November is shown in the chart.
When drawing up the budget of the Russian Federation for 2018, the average annual dollar exchange rate was 64.7 rubles. Compared to 2017, economists of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation predict growth of the American currency by 10.92%. Some private equity analysts, however, are less optimistic in their forecasts. They predict a fall in the Russian currency to 90 rubles per dollar, although still most experts predict the value of quotations in the range of 65-75 rubles.
Head of Investment Department, Raiffeisen Capital Management Company, Vladimir Vedeneev, believes that in 2018 the ruble will be strongly influenced by the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the EU, as well as the growth of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia. All this can lead to the growth of the American currency above the mark of 70 rubles.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade takes about the same position Maxim Oreshkin... According to his most pessimistic forecasts, in 2018 the dollar should not exceed 67 rubles, and the most likely scenario is 63 rubles. for $ 1. And although, the official assures that there is no need to expect sharp hesitation, he still does not explain the reasons why the ruble will fall in price by almost 10%.
And here is the lead analyst at BCS Global Markets Vladimir Tikhomirov claims that by the end of 2018, RUR will not only not go down, but may even end it with a slight increase. The expert's forecast is based on the fact that the world will maintain a steady demand for oil at a price of $ 65 per barrel and that tensions between the United States and Russia will subside. All this will allow the ruble to gain a foothold in the range of 57-59 perUSD.In turn, his colleague, a leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev, warns that in 2018 there is a very high probability of a fall in prices for black gold. This is due to the fact that the OPEC member countries, in order not to lose the market, can increase the production of cheap oil. This, in turn, can reduce the price of oil to $ 40, and the ruble can be pulled to the line of 80 units per dollar.
The growth of the dollar to the level of 70 rubles is predicted by the director of the analytical department of the company "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev. But, in his opinion, in this case, it will not be the price of oil that will be fundamental, but the outflow of foreign capital from government debt securities of the Russian Federation, due to a possible new round of anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, the fall can be very rapid up to 12-15% per month.
Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich, believes that the political component will allow the ruble to keep the position of 2017. This is due to the fact that after the March elections, the transfer of power to other hands is unlikely. This means that the chosen vector of the country's economic development will not change. That is, the political and economic situation in the country will remain stable, and investors are very fond of this.
conclusions
Forecasting is a very difficult and often thankless task. And it is almost impossible to predict changes in the exchange rate of such a currency as the USD against the RUR, and even a year in advance. If we take as a basis the already known events (elections in the Russian Federation, current anti-Russian sanctions) and assume that no excesses will occur in world geopolitics and economics, the cost of the dollar at the end of 2018 will be approximately 65 rubles.
This figure is due to the fact that, despite the predicted outcome of the March elections in the Russian Federation, in anticipation of this event, the Russian currency will decline. And further smooth strengthening of the dollar will be associated with good forecasts of economists and analysts on the development of the US economy.
Video "Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018 / The collapse of the ruble is not far off?"
