The dollar exchange rate worries everyone - from stock players to housewives. Millions of people keep their banking assets in dollars. This is the most popular reserve currency in the world, a reliable and profitable financial instrument. Like any other money the dollar is subject to fluctuations in value.

In Russia, the value of this currency depends on both the economy and politics. Predicting the dollar against the ruble is a difficult, thankless task, but necessary. A competent forecast will not only save you from losing money, but will also allow you to earn on currency fluctuations.

With you is Denis Kuderin, an expert of the HeatherBober magazine on financial issues. I will tell, what will happen to the dollar in the near future how this will affect the well-being of the population, and I will tell you about the main factors affecting the exchange rate of the American currency.

You will also learn how to independently make a competent currency forecast and protect your dollar savings. Don't switch - there will be a lot of interesting things!

1. Dollar exchange rate forecast - lottery or weighted analysis

People like to predict themselves and listen to the forecasts of others - this makes the future more certain and helps to prepare for it. But even the Hydrometeorological Center is constantly mistaken in its expectations - what can we expect about those who are trying to predict exchange rate even more changeable than the weather?

Still, exchange rate forecasts are needed. They should be listened to, they should be used for your own purposes, they should be studied. Each analyst has his own opinion about what will happen to the dollar, ruble and euro in 2017-18. Our task is to find a rational grain in each forecast and draw up a general, as objective picture as possible.

Why do ordinary citizens follow exchange rate forecasts:

you will know in what currency to keep your savings;
you will be able to save your capital in the event of a fall / rise in the exchange rate;
you can earn on exchange rate fluctuations;
you will have time to exchange one currency for another before the exchange value of the ruble / dollar changes.

The current relationship of the ruble/dollar pair is a reliable indicator of the standard of living expected by the population in the near future.

Taking into account the difficult economic and political situation in Russia and in the world in 2017, we can draw a general conclusion: the near future will be a serious test for the position of the ruble and the national economy as a whole.

The current forecasts of economic and financial experts are contradictory and varied. It is difficult to bring the statements of analysts to a common denominator, but let's still try to do it.

For example, the former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin believes that the country's economy in the near future expects a significant decline. This is due to foreign policy events that do not imply the easing of Western sanctions against Russia.
The purchasing power of citizens will decline, which in turn will exacerbate the economic downturn and negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.
Supports the opinion of the ex-minister and Nicholas Solabuto, director of the Finam brokerage company, stock analyst and trader. He believes that soon oil prices are expected to fall, which will inevitably lead to the growth of the dollar against the ruble currency.
But the experts World Bank suggest that the ruble exchange rate will be stable at the end of 17 and at the beginning of 18 and will linger in the area 60-63 rubles for 1 $ . In contrast to them, specialists from another reputable bank, Morgan & Stanley, say that a scenario is quite likely, the development of which will lead to the exchange rate 85 rubles for 1 dollar .

Which of the analysts to believe, everyone must decide for himself. Moreover, any of us is able to make an independent forecast by analyzing the most significant factors for the dollar exchange rate.

We will talk about them in the next section of the article.

2. What affects the dollar - 5 main factors

Insofar as money is a commodity, its value varies depending on the objective circumstances. Specifically, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble is influenced by dozens of factors, but five of them are of decisive importance.

Let's consider them in detail.

Factor 1. Behavior of the Central Bank

The main bank of Russia has effective tools to influence the exchange rate. At any moment, this financial institution is able to strengthen the national currency or weaken it by its actions.

What actions of the Central Bank affect the exchange rate:

Currency interventions- buying / selling large lots of dollars at a low or, conversely, high rate.
Additional issue of money- the bank gives the order to print more rubles, which automatically reduces their value.
Change in the refinancing rate- the percentage at which the bank issues loans to commercial banks. This indicator affects the rate on loans for households and businesses. The lower the interest rate, the more stable the exchange rate in the country.
Bond issue- their purchase by the population also strengthens the currency.

These are just the main tools of influence - in fact, there are many more. Tracking the actions of the Central Bank, you already become a forecaster to some extent.

Example
In September 17, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 0.5%. For large banks, this is a chance to earn money: they can borrow money from the Central Bank at a low interest rate, convert it into foreign currency and, due to the depreciation of the ruble, receive income that covers the loan taken from the Central Bank.
In turn, the Central Bank rate is influenced by the economic situation in the country, so these are interdependent indicators that are not easy to understand without expert help.
It would be naive to think that only the Central Bank has a monopoly on changes in the exchange rate. The United States also has its own main bank - it is called Fed(Federal Reserve System). The decisions and actions of this body affect the status of the dollar in the first place.
Factor 2. Export and import operations
The ratio of such operations determines state trade balance. Exports attract more dollars to Russia, while imports, on the contrary, take the currency out of the country. The main export item to the Russian Federation is oil, gas and other energy resources.
The influence of the trade balance on the exchange rate is obvious: the more imports in the country, the weaker the national currency.

If the government buys more than it sells, the dollar strengthens. But when exporters pay taxes, foreign exchange rates are temporarily declining, and the ruble retains its positions. This is exactly what is happening at the time of this writing - the ruble currency, after paying taxes to the treasury, remains stable for many months in a row.
Factor 3. Change in oil and gold prices
There is so much oil in Russia (at least for now) that it is enough not only for the country's internal needs, but also for export. The sale of energy resources is the main item for replenishing the state budget. It has always been so. Therefore, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar directly depends on world oil prices.
That's why Ministry of Energy has every reason to say: since the cost of oil will remain at the same level until the end of 2017, sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate are not expected.
True, the price of oil, in turn, also depends on many factors that are also not easy to identify and analyze.
For example, tomorrow in Nigeria they will decide to reduce oil production by 5%, and in Libya, on the contrary, to increase it by 1%. All this will affect the cost to some extent: the task of analysts is to understand exactly how and to what extent.

As for gold, its value tends to rise steadily, except for relatively short periods of decline. Such fluctuations inevitably affect the exchange rate of the dollar and the ruble when gold is bought/sold in large quantities.
Factor 4. The attitude of the population to the national currency
Most of the population traditionally prefers to keep money in foreign currency. Citizens do not trust the Russian ruble. They are easy to understand - many remember the events of the recent past, associated with sharp falls in the exchange rate and the transformation of ruble fortunes into nothing.
Increased demand for dollars automatically leads to a depreciation of the ruble. Sometimes the hype and panic on the stock exchanges affects quotes more than objective reasons. The “panic” increase in the rate does not last long, as a rule, but quick stock market players manage to earn decent money on fluctuations.
The trend of recent years is disappointing - in Russia, the number of ruble bank deposits is decreasing. It is impossible to condemn citizens for distrust of their own national currency, but it will also not work to make everyone patriots of the ruble by force, banning dollar savings.

Factor 5. Unforeseen situations
Force majeure situations financiers call spontaneous events in the domestic and foreign political arena and in nature. These include mass demonstrations, revolutions, major terrorist attacks, hostilities and natural disasters.
The terrorist attack that took place on September 11, 2001 in the United States is often cited as the most striking illustration of force majeure. Then the dollar for some time fell sharply in price in all countries of the world without exception.
Other factors influencing the rates of world currencies are stock speculation with the participation of the world's largest banks, events in the global economy, economic and political sanctions of some countries against others.
3. What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 scenarios
Millions of people keep their hard-earned savings in precious pieces of paper with a greenish tint. No wonder people are so interested in what will happen to the dollar in the foreseeable future.
Expert circles consider three roughly equally possible scenarios.
Option 1. Optimistic
According to the government Russia is now on the path to economic recovery. The internal reserves of the country, activated thanks to the sanctions, led to the rise of the agricultural sector, awakened the Russian producer from a long-term hibernation, and generally played into our hands.
In addition, the price of oil will rise in the near future to the mark 80-95 bucks per barrel (at the time of writing, it costs 57 $ ), which will further strengthen the position of the ruble. By the end of 17 or the beginning of 18, the dollar will cost 40-50 rubles. If sanctions are also lifted, then a golden era will begin in the country in general.
Option 2. Realistic
No one is going to lift the sanctions in the near future. On the contrary, their toughening is possible with the aggravation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
GDP will not rise anywhere, but will steadily decline. The price of oil is unlikely to change dramatically, except perhaps slightly fall. The dollar will rise and reach prices by the beginning of 2018 65-70 rubles .
Option 3. Hopeless
Economic indicators will fall ever lower, less and less money will be attracted to domestic industries. Foreign investors will leave the Russian Federation completely, and oil will roll back to the price $40 per barrel .
Forecast comparison table:
What forecast do you choose? Common sense tells us that most often those who are right turn out to be adherents of the golden mean. But Russia is too unpredictable a country to hope for stability and sustained economic development.
4. How to know if the dollar will rise or fall - 5 stages of forecasting
What to do if analysts' layouts are not definite? Or even worse, they contradict each other? There is only one thing left - to make a forecast yourself.
I propose universal expert instructions for making currency forecasts.
Stage 1. Analysis of forecasts
The network has a lot of forecasts made by the largest world and Russian economic analysts, traders, bank directors and other persons who are worth listening to.
Analyze their statements and determine the general outline y - where will the course move in the near future?

Stage 2. Studying the course
The study of charts, tables, the use of special exchange tools also helps to predict rate fluctuations with a decent degree of probability. The main thing is to use the most detailed and objective sources.
Stage 3. Watching the news
Watch economic and political news not only on Russian-language sites, but also on global resources. It happens that one public statement of a world leader causes a sharp change in course in the near future.
Serious political events have an even greater impact on the value of currencies. Some of them are not talked about on the central channels at all.
Stage 4. Identification of real factors
The most difficult part of forecasting. You need to understand which factors really affect the value of the dollar, and which ones simply create an extraneous background and prevent you from drawing objective conclusions.
I have already spoken about the main factors of influence - the actions of the Central Bank, the price of oil, the behavior of the population, the world economy.

Stage 5. Situation assessment and forecasting
It remains to give a sober assessment of the current situation, take into account all the factors, eliminate the superfluous and give an objective forecast.
What you will do with this forecast is the second question. Some earn decent money on the analysis of the foreign exchange market. Others, anticipating a rise in the dollar, start buying up imported goods before they rise in price again.
5. How not to lose money due to dollar fluctuations - 3 important tips
They earn on fluctuations in the exchange rate of a unit, and lose money - thousands.
A few simple but useful tips will help you save your finances.
Tip 1. Listen to famous experts
Some experts are more "expert" than others. Their predictions are more reasonable and come true more often. If you have time, check past analyst forecasts and find out in hindsight if they came true. Select several experts with the highest efficiency and follow their blogs, statements and forecasts.

https://www.site/2018-09-12/chto_budet_dalshe_s_dollarom_i_rublem_prognozy_analitikov

Under the pressure of sanctions

What will happen next with the dollar and the ruble. Analyst forecasts

Jaromir Romanov

Today, the US Senate will hold hearings on new sanctions against the Russian Federation. It depends on the outcome of this meeting what will happen to the ruble - whether it will continue to fall or start to rise in price against the dollar and the euro. In anticipation of this event - analysts' forecasts.

“The probability of the growth of the dollar exchange rate above 70 rubles is high”

Sanctions pressure (discussion in the Senate of imposing restrictions on operations with new public debt, pressure on the Russian Federation in the Skripal case, a serious aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Syria) continues to have a serious impact on the ruble exchange rate, analysts at Bank Saint Petersburg state. Experts believe that the mark of 70 rubles per dollar is now an important milestone, which the market will try to hold until a new batch of negative news appears. However, the probability of the growth of the dollar above this mark is assessed by the bank as high.

“Strengthening anti-Russian rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble assets”

Despite the fact that the exchange rates of the dollar and the euro have slightly decreased on the Moscow exchange (the US currency is now worth 69 rubles 46 kopecks, the European one is 80 rubles 52 kopecks), the Russian currency will remain under pressure amid rising sanctions risks. This is the opinion of the chief analyst of Nordea Bank Denis Davydov. Despite a small respite, received on the eve of the currencies of emerging markets, the appetite for risky assets remains very low. The dollar has a strong position, while the topic of sanctions continues to be a big irritant for the Russian ruble.

“Strengthening anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble-denominated assets. In addition, today the US President will sign an executive order imposing sanctions against individuals and companies that are involved in interference in the US electoral process. Taking into account the preliminary conclusions of the US intelligence agencies, the decree will affect a number of Russian legal entities and individuals. The USD/RUB pair will continue to trade at 69-70.5,” Nordea Bank notes.

"The ruble is undervalued, but the population may cause a rush demand for the currency"

There is growing concern among Russians about the stability of the ruble exchange rate, according to a study by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. “Owners of ruble savings are increasingly ready to protect their savings by converting them into dollars or euros, which in the future may cause an excessive demand for the currency with the prospect of an even greater unwinding of the crisis,” the university warns and advises the authorities to take measures to “avoid this negative scenario.

At the same time, the university believes that the ruble is fundamentally undervalued against the dollar, and in the absence of external shocks, we should have seen the ruble strengthen against the dollar. “We have to admit that the exchange rate of the ruble to a very large extent depends on the extent to which the monetary authorities manage to curb the speculative pressure on the ruble. So far, unfortunately, this has not been achieved, ”the university states.

"Cure" for the ruble - improving relations with the United States

The current weakening of the ruble is associated with the risk of expanding sanctions against Russia and the general weakness of the currencies of developing countries, said Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at Alpari. In his opinion, if the Central Bank of Russia raises the key rate tomorrow, this is unlikely to help the ruble much. “We need other “medicines” here – improving relations with the United States and stabilizing the dynamics of emerging markets,” Roman Tkachuk believes. His colleague Vladislav Antonov recalls that hearings in the US Senate on the issue of Russian sanctions will take place today, and on September 26 there will be a meeting of the FOMC (Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve). But both of these important events are already included in the price of the ruble. “The factors for the depreciation of the ruble have weakened. In this regard, sellers will become more active. I believe that we will see their activity when the dollar depreciates below 68.85 rubles,” he notes.

“It’s not worth counting on more than 68.7-69 rubles per dollar yet”

The Russian currency strengthened against the dollar and the euro yesterday. The auction of the Ministry of Finance for the sale of OFZ was canceled again, the tax period is approaching, and the price of oil is growing. “However, it is not worth counting on more than a correction of the exchange rate to 68.7-69 rubles per dollar yet,” Vadim Kravchuk, an analyst at the sales department of IFC Solid, believes.

“We need to wait for a correction to 65-66 rubles per dollar”

Today, on the MICEX, the dollar is worth 69 rubles 65 kopecks, the euro is trading at 80 rubles 70 kopecks, - says Gleb Zadoya, an expert at Analytics Online. The MICEX index rose to 2345 points, while Brent oil quotations entrenched above $79 per barrel. “The day before, we observed a fairly logical correction of the dollar and the euro against the ruble. Speculators, apparently, decided to fix part of the profit received on the last growth. The pressure on the ruble is associated with sanctions, turbulence in emerging markets, as well as the outflow of capital from non-residents. And we still do not consider the current rate as interesting for buying or selling currency and believe that it is necessary to wait for the correction of the rate to the levels of 65-66 rubles per dollar and buy the dollar in the medium term around these values, ”the expert believes.

The situation in Syria may also affect the ruble

It is still too early to talk about the stability of the trend towards the strengthening of the ruble, Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker, believes. He states that yesterday the ruble showed a significant strengthening against its main competitors. First, this was influenced by the words of the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin that the department maintains its forecast for the ruble to strengthen to the level of 63-64 rubles per dollar at the end of the year. Then the domestic currency was supported by oil and messages from the Far Eastern Economic Forum, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in favor of striving for mutual settlements in national currencies. However, the expert recalls that ahead are discussions in the US Senate of new restrictions for the Russian Federation, “and the situation in Syrian Idlib has high risks of military contact between the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the United States.”

Due to the unstable economic situation and the recent fall of the ruble, the population is increasingly questioning whether the dollar will rise or fall. If we take into account all the factors, that is, sanctions from the US and the EU, as well as jumps in the exchange rate per barrel of oil, the answer sounds like this - the ruble is likely to fall, but not very significantly. Therefore, it is best for citizens of the Russian Federation to transfer all their free money into dollars, the most profitable solution would be to convert the ruble into a dollar deposit.

It is possible to answer the question of whether the dollar will grow in Russia only after defining the very concept of a currency and the parameters that make up its value.

Currency is a commodity that performs the function of determining the value of things, and also serves as a medium of exchange. For currency, as well as for any other product, there is also a “supply-demand” parameter, and the final exchange rate depends on this.

The value of the national currency in relation to the currencies of other countries consists of the totality of goods and services produced in the country. So, for example, country "A" produces a lot of wheat for export, the cost of one unit of this produced product is much lower than the cost of an assembled car or aircraft, which are produced in country "B".

As a result, the total wealth of country "A" will be significantly lower than the wealth of country "B". The demand for the currency of country B will be higher than for the currency of country A, since the currency of the richer country gives more access to various goods and services. As a result, the final exchange rate of these countries will be in favor of a richer country.

Help: a country can also artificially underestimate or increase the rate of its currency. For example, Japan's exchange rate is heavily undervalued in order to gain competitiveness in international markets. On the contrary, the opinion of Ukrainian economists and politicians has led to the fact that the hryvnia exchange rate has risen in price disproportionately to the country's GDP, which is why the export of goods is given to businessmen with great difficulty.

That's the whole theory needed to understand the exchange rate.

What will happen to the dollar: possible scenarios

When an event occurs in the world that reduces the demand for one of the world's currencies, the value of this currency falls - this has already happened with the British pound sterling after the announcement of Brexit, that is, the withdrawal from the European Union.

The exchange rate of the national currency is also affected by the cost of goods exported by the country abroad. And this is the answer to what will happen to the dollar in Russia: the cost of 1 barrel of oil has been steadily growing lately. Therefore, there are chances for the strengthening of the ruble.

But it is better to consider several scenarios in order to most accurately understand currency trends in the near future.

Growth

The main reason why we can assume an increase in the value of the ruble in 2019 is a stable increase in oil prices. So, for example, since June 21, 2017, the price of one barrel of Brent oil has risen from $45 to $74, which is an increase of more than one and a half times.

Recall that one of the main reasons for the very strong and sharp fall of the ruble in 2015 was the collapse in oil prices. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, more than half (about 63%) of all goods exported to non-CIS countries are products of the fuel and energy complex, mainly oil and products of its processing.

However, just increasing oil prices is not enough. Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economics, emphasized in an interview with MK: “in a situation of sanctions pressure, an unstable situation in the region and a growing supply on the oil market, the ruble is unlikely to begin to strengthen.” Indeed, due to the recent lifting of restrictions on oil production in Iran, the supply on the market has become even larger, which negatively affects the international price of fuel.

In addition, the cost of one barrel of oil is extremely unstable: any political event, from conflicts within the OPEC countries to a crisis in China, can sharply turn the course in the other direction. All this leads to the final forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2019 - it is unlikely that there will be an increase, there are too few conditions for this.

The fall

In the near future, the ruble may fall rather than strengthen. This applies not only to the ruble-dollar exchange rate, but also to the ruble-euro ratio. The reasons for this unpleasant scenario are as follows:

Large-scale sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia have been extended until January 31, 2019. This significantly affects trade between countries - hence, the total wealth of countries;
Continuation of a tough policy on the part of the United States. Although Russia believed that America's policy would soften somewhat with Trump's rise to power, this did not happen. Moreover, on the contrary, additional restrictions were introduced against Russian business;
Growing demand for sustainable modes of transport, primarily in China. Because of this, the demand for oil that is familiar to everyone is falling;
An increase in supply in the oil market - the production of shale oil in the United States is gradually returning to operation (in 2015-2017, it was unprofitable to produce shale oil due to the low cost of fuel with an expensive production process). In addition, Iran is increasing the pace of oil production.

For all these reasons, a disappointing conclusion is asked: the fall of the ruble is more than possible. According to Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economics, in the most pessimistic forecast, the national currency may fall to 80-100 rubles in 2019.

Walking in the hallway

This option is also possible, albeit with some reservations. Despite overcoming the crisis of 2014 and a steady increase in oil prices since 2017, the authorities did not strengthen the Russian ruble. Instead, the Government of the Russian Federation invested the resulting money in gold and foreign exchange reserves: from 04/01/2016 to 10/12/2018, according to the reports of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the country's reserves increased from $387 billion to $460.4 billion.

Reserves will help keep the course within reasonable limits (the so-called "price corridor"). In addition, the ruble is already much cheaper than its real value. Due to this, a sharp decrease in oil demand may not hit the Russian economy as hard as it could if we were now observing the strengthening of the ruble.

Can the dollar rise to 100 rubles?

A number of well-known economists, one of whom we have already mentioned in the text, believe that such a scenario is possible. It just needs to be emphasized here: the dollar will cost 100 rubles only if Russia is in the most pessimistic scenario.

Such a strong fall of the ruble is possible if all the following circumstances coincide:

The United States will stop waging trade wars with China and the European Union and, on the contrary, will become more actively cooperating. In this case, shale oil production will inevitably increase in America;
OPEC countries will withdraw from the agreement on limiting oil production ahead of schedule;
The United States and the European Union will not change their tough policy towards Russia, but, on the contrary, will introduce even more economic barriers and sanctions.

But there is no need to panic: it is unlikely that all three events will occur, it is too unlikely. So far, there is not even a hint of an end to trade wars in Trump's policy. The OPEC countries, which have already had an unpleasant experience in 2015-2016, most likely will not withdraw from the agreement, and the United States and the European Union in a global sense do not change their attitude towards Russia.

Given that Russia also has reserves, the likelihood of such a strong decrease in value becomes very small. If the ruble falls, then no more than to the level of 75-80 rubles per dollar.

What's the best way to deal with money? What currency to store?

Leading economists advise keeping money in three currencies: dollars, euros and rubles. However, we do not know how much the dollar will grow, and the chances of the ruble strengthening are too shaky.

That's why all free money that you do not have to spend even in case of force majeure, it is better to keep in dollars. The Eurozone is now, unfortunately, much more unstable than before: the UK's exit from the European Union, the protracted crisis in Greece and Spain, political instability in France - all these factors have a negative impact on the euro-currency. If not in the near future, then in the long term, the euro can definitely fall.

The most profitable solution to the problem is to open a deposit in dollar terms. So you will not only save your savings from high inflation in Russia, but also compensate for the inflation of the dollar itself. An equally sustainable and more or less profitable option is to invest in gold.

There are also alternative ways to save money, but now they are also not quite profitable (meaning investing in real estate, stocks and bonds). The construction boom in Russia has passed, the demand for housing has converged with the supply, so prices per square meter have ceased to grow at a high pace. In turn, stocks and bonds are an insufficiently reliable asset, since companies and states cannot give consumers a reliable growth in quotations due to trade wars unleashed by the United States.

That is why a dollar deposit, along with investments in gold, is the best solution at the moment.

What will happen if Russia abandons the dollar? As much as possible?

In the Russian Federation, a very noisy event was the signing of an agreement between the Russian Federation and China on settlements in national currencies. The word "de-dollarization" became fashionable, journalists began to write about the rejection of the American currency.

In practice, the probability of a dollar ban, although present, is still very, very small. First of all, because the Russian Government itself needs the dollar: it is in this currency that settlements are made with the countries of the European Union, Africa, the Middle East, and so on.

In addition, abandoning the dollar would lead to internal political instability: against the backdrop of pension reforms and growing discontent among the population, abandoning the dollar would mean unrest, a downgrade of the ruling party, and so on. The current leadership is unlikely to take such a step.

If this does happen, the only way out of the situation will be to transfer money to foreign banks. Along with the flight of capital, additional problems will appear: the growth of bureaucratization, paperwork, tax deductions to the authorities of two countries at once, and so on. But, we emphasize, in a situation of abandoning the dollar, this would be the only reasonable option.

Fortunately, most of all, journalists are talking about de-dollarization - the Government, high-ranking officials and top officials of the administration in every possible way deny the very possibility of abandoning the American currency.

The Russian national currency again fell victim to the August curse

The crisis of 20 years ago is still echoing today. Every year, Russians wait with bated breath for August, which they perceive as a "black" month. 2018 was no exception, throwing firewood on the fire of these mystical August fears. It was in the last month of the summer of 2018 that the ruble began to fall rapidly against the backdrop of ever-increasing sanctions pressure. Of course, the “wooden” one is not losing in price at the same pace as in 1998, but its weakening makes people seriously nervous. What will the ruble exchange rate be by the end of the year? What to invest in? Should we expect another default? Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor NIKOLAEV answered these and other questions from MK readers on a direct line in the editorial office.

Igor Alekseevich, the ruble exchange rate traditionally falls in August, but recovers by the New Year. Will it be the same this year? What will be the dollar and euro exchange rate at the end of 2018?

After the default of 1998, August is now always represented as a "black" month. However, I do not agree with this statement. For example, at the end of 2014, or rather in mid-December, the euro exchange rate broke through 100 rubles. It was a record fall in the exchange rate, by no means the August one. Therefore, you should not console yourself with the hope that with the advent of autumn, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will change direction. There are fundamental reasons for its further weakening, which are not related to the months of the year. First of all, we are talking about the state of the Russian economy, which leaves much to be desired. However, there will be no critical collapse, which was observed in 1998. But the ruble will be under increasing sanctions pressure. In particular, the adoption of the relevant bill of the US Congress is possible in autumn, which has a very strong downward effect on the ruble exchange rate. By the end of 2018, we may see the dollar for 80 rubles and the euro for 90 rubles.

- Will there ever be conditions in Russia under which the ruble will not weaken, but strengthen?

Of course, someday such conditions will arise. But this requires our economy to be strong. Now we cannot boast of such a thing. The domestic economy is still dependent on the level of oil prices. It does not solve many structural problems. Plus, it is hit by the growing sanctions pressure, which seems to be for a long time. All this affects the exchange rate. Let's hope that someday the ruble will strengthen for real.

What is the best currency to save money in? As practice shows, the method often proposed by specialists - to divide funds into three parts: dollars, euros and rubles - does not work. How to be?

I never liked this recipe either. No matter how much I would like to advise people to keep their funds in rubles, but, alas, I can’t yet. These are only dreams. Therefore, I have to recommend that you keep your savings in dollars if possible. I hope that the circulation of "green" in Russia will not be banned. However, such a risk, although minimal, but still exists. And this must be borne in mind.

Recently, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia could abandon the dollar for oil exports and switch to the ruble. Is such an option possible? And under what circumstances?

In order to move to such a scheme, there is little desire on the part of one Russian side. We need the interest of the country that buys oil from us. She must have rubles. Mr. Siluanov's proposal sounds beautiful in words. In fact, this is still a difficult initiative to implement. Who is interested in having rubles to pay for Russian oil, while the “wood” is falling? The country that pays us for oil needs a strong currency, and this, whatever one may say, is now the dollar. Moreover, it is more profitable for us to pay for oil in dollars, since the American currency is growing.

The government claims that we are not afraid of sanctions. But as soon as the States announce the next restrictive measures, the ruble falls. Is it possible to estimate what damage Washington's steps are doing to our currency?

What is a depreciating ruble? First of all, it is the growing uncertainty of the economic situation. The investor does not understand what to prepare for, what to focus on. For example, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2018 should be 60.8 rubles. When the rate jumped to 68 rubles - and this is the official forecast rate as early as 2024! - Investors were confused. They do not understand what is happening and what the course will be. In such a situation, normal investors make a pragmatic decision: take a break and not invest in the Russian economy. They freeze their activity, which as a result negatively affects our economy. Moreover, those reforms that our government is going to carry out, under the conditions of sanctions, will not give the effect that officials are counting on. The necessary rates of economic growth will not be. This is the main damage from sanctions.

At the same time, the most serious sanctions relate to sovereign Russian debt, that is, a ban on Americans buying Russian bonds. It destroys the mechanism of maintaining and strengthening the "wooden", which worked before. After all, what happened last year and the beginning of this year? The economy did not become strong, but at the same time the exchange rate strengthened to 55-56 rubles per dollar. Why? The point is that a speculative mechanism was at work. The share of non-residents among buyers of Russian bonds as of April 1, 2018 amounted to a record 34%. But in April, new sanctions were introduced, and non-residents began to leave, and the rate immediately swung - 60-63 rubles for the "green". The exchange rate of the ruble was kept at the expense of carry-trade operations, when non-residents buy Russian bonds for dollars, and then sell them at a good profitability and convert the proceeds rubles back into dollars. But from April 1 to July 1, the share of non-residents in Russian bonds fell from 34% to 28%. And with new sanctions against the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation, this mechanism will be completely destroyed. So far, these are only intentions, but with a high degree of probability they will be adopted by the US Congress. And then do not expect anything good.

The law on the increase in the VAT rate has already led to an increase in prices. Now the ruble has also weakened. What goods and services will rise in price first of all?

Everything will rise in price. The fact is that VAT is included in the cost of any product and any service. Of course, there is food and medicine, where the preferential rate is 10%. Theoretically, their prices should not rise. However, I assure you that against the general inflationary background, the price tags will rise for them as well. Paradoxically, the price of what is in high demand rises. Therefore, by the end of the year, when the seasonal harvest is long over, food prices will rise most noticeably.

It is reported that in the near future the price of air tickets abroad will increase. How much? How will the cost of flights within the country change?

The cost of air tickets abroad is denominated in foreign currency. Air carriers made no secret of the fact that the rise in prices due to the appreciation of the dollar should be 5-8%. The course jumped, and they review the price once a week. International flights will certainly rise in price. Meanwhile, domestic flights, in theory, should not. However, when imports become more expensive, the prices for domestic goods and services follow them. Therefore, most likely, over time, prices will increase for domestic flights.

Our family plans to acquire their own housing. We are thinking about getting a mortgage. Is it worth it now to take on such obligations or is it better to wait?

If you are sure that if the economic situation worsens, your family income will not change and you will be able to pay off the mortgage, then feel free to take a home loan. With the current rate, it's profitable. It all depends on the prospects for your income in the foreseeable future.

In order to preserve their capital or even increase it, many are trying to find out if the dollar will rise in the near future. From all foreign exchange transactions, in the short term, only the bank benefits. But if you focus on a long distance, it is better to choose in advance the currency in which you should keep your savings.

Why did the ruble fall?

Some issues with the course arose back in 2014:

The Central Bank refused to support the fixed exchange rate;
Events in a neighboring country undermined its national currency;
Negative reaction from the world community regarding Crimea;
Introduction of sectoral sanctions against a part of Russian corporations;
Sudden and unmotivated drop in oil prices.

If you turn around and look back, you might think that things did not go so badly. At first, after the refusal of support from the Central Bank and the reduction in prices for energy resources, the ruble simply dived. Over the past year, it has been on a certain "plateau", only minor fluctuations have been recorded.

But as experience shows, such parity cannot last long. Sooner or later, the national currency will go somewhere, either rapidly up, or no less rapidly to the bottom.

Why is the dollar rising?

There are several explanations for this process:

The Central Bank does not use gold and foreign exchange reserves to maintain the exchange rate at a stable level;
Oil, to which the ruble is pegged, has fallen in price several times over the past few years;
The prospects for overcoming the crisis of the Russian economy, for an outside observer, seem very doubtful;
There is simply no demand for the ruble;
Foreign corporations are not forced to buy Russian currency in order to pay off debts to domestic companies.

One of the significant income items of the Russian Federation, oddly enough, turned out to be the commodity business. The sale of gas and oil abroad has become a significant source of budget revenue during the years of high energy prices. So, almost the main inflow of currency was provided precisely thanks to this fishery. Now this strict dependence does not seem so strange.

In many ways, the fall of the ruble is a politicized moment. The top leadership of Russia adheres to one position, some of the world leaders - the opposite. The country is under pressure, by all possible non-violent means. Including an attempt to "strangle economically." So far, there has not been much success in this matter, but it is foolish to deny some visible results. They are especially noticeable on the scoreboard of banks and exchange offices.

Will the dollar rise or fall?

The current position of the ruble is stable only at first glance. It is not supported by any "serious player" of the stock market, so any changes are possible, even in the very near future.

In favor of a further fall they say:

Further decline in oil prices and the lack of clear agreements between the OPEC countries;
Support for the extension of sanctions by major adversaries;
The absence of any new export-oriented industry capable of generating significant income in foreign currency;
General dynamics of exchange rate changes in recent years;
Intransigence of political positions.

The possibility of growth of the national currency is hinted at by:

Periodic "jumps" of oil in price;
Confidence that the crisis will end sooner or later;
Preservation of sales volumes in the commodity market;
Possible thaw in relations after the inauguration of the new American president;
Revising its position on the sanctions of a number of countries and regions.

If we recall the past crises, we can come to a disappointing conclusion - the ruble never returned to its previous indicators, after its falls.

So you can count on growth only if, for some completely unpredictable reasons, there will be a number of positive developments for our economy. So far, there are none, as well as hints at the reasons for such changes.

Why is the dollar rising towards the end of the year?

The end of the year is characterized by one unpleasant feature - you have to pay your debts:

State corporations borrow funds in the West, if possible;
Towards the end of the year, it is necessary to repay the loan in full or pay off interest;
Calculations, of course, are carried out in dollars;
To give the currency, it must be found and bought somewhere;
During this period, the demand for dollars grows and the demand for rubles falls;
Market relations independently regulate the course.

This was most noticeable in 2014 and 2015, when the companies that fell under the sanctions were forced to pay off their debt “in one sitting” at the end of the year. This led to a tremendous increase in purchases of dollars, of course, for rubles. Supply and demand, if you haven't forgotten.

At the moment, some corporations have lost access to Western resources, the rest are smoothly paying off their debts. So in the near future, changes in the ruble exchange rate should not be associated with the “season”. Is it good or bad?

On the one hand, it was clear at what time the next fall should be expected, everything was predictable. On the other hand, now one of the reasons for depreciation has disappeared.

Will the currency rise again?

The dollar hit hard on imports to our country, the cost increased:

consumer electronics;
mobile devices;
foreign cars;
Imported food.

But there was no collapse. Retaliatory sanctions were imposed on a part of food products, as a result of which the Russians did not see a sharp rise in prices. Some goods just disappeared from the shelves, they were replaced by domestic counterparts.

Car dealers adapted to the situation by slightly adjusting the price and making their goods more affordable in our country.
Those who wanted to upgrade their personal computers, purchase laptops or new generation game consoles were really disappointed.
Licensed software, by the way, has also become less accessible. However, it is rarely encountered for completely different reasons.

Potentially, now there are two ways to solve the problem:

Try to improve relations with the West and hope for the recovery of the ruble;
To develop domestic production and fully cover the needs of our own citizens.

If you want a 50% answer to this question, flip a coin. For 100% result:

Recall this situation in a year;
Check the official rate;
Enjoy the result.

No one today knows whether the ruble will gain a foothold in its current positions, whether it will rise or fall in the future. The bulk of the assumptions boils down to the fact that the fall will not stop, although it will slow down. So it’s probably not worth parting with foreign currency savings yet.

At the moment, there are no prerequisites for strengthening the national currency. Optimistically greeted elections in the US and Europe may give their results, or may turn into another disappointment.

In the near future there is not much difference - whether the dollar will rise or fall. The main changes have already taken place, subsequent adjustments will not significantly affect the final result.