State debt - this is The amount of debt of the country and (or) foreign legal, individuals, governments of other countries. It consists of a total accumulated amount of budget deficits (minus budget excess) and the amount of financial obligations to foreign creditors (minus the part that went to cover budget deficit) At a specific date. In developed countries, public debt is also determined as a total amount of outstanding government bonds. Distinguish internal debt and external. Internal debt - this is The duty of the state to the population, business entities of their country. It is generated by budget deficits, their debt financing. Most economists claim that the growth of internal debt cannot lead to the bankruptcy of the nation, as this is a debt itself. In addition, the state always has the ability to finance it by increasing tax rates, issue of money, refinancing. External debt - this is Debt to individuals, legal entities, the governments of other countries. Under service of state (municipal) debtunderstand financial operations For the payment of income on state and municipal debt obligations in the form of interest on them or discount, carried out at the expense of the relevant budget. The service of debt obligations of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Bank of Russia, credit Organization or other specialized financial institution. Events for servicing public debt to the main of them include:
· Payments to creditors;
· Providing guarantees;
· Repayment of internal / external loans;
· Determination of conditions for the release and placement of new obligations, etc.
The effectiveness of these events depends on the validity of the decisions taken. It, in turn, is based on a thorough analysis of the structure and volume of public debt, an objective assessment of the current state of borrowing.
The cost of servicing the public debt subject or municipal borrowing is planned annually. The estimate is approved by the law on the relevant budget. The maximum amount of costs for serving public debt in terms of the report on the execution of revenue-and-expenditure articles of the budget for the reporting period cannot be higher than 15% of the cost of the relevant budget. The costs carried out at the expense of subventions are not accepted.
Public debt service is based on: Unconditional. It involves ensuring accurate and timely repayment of obligations to investors and creditors without nomination. additional conditions. Consistency. It involves the maximum harmonization of the interests of the lender and the borrower. Unity accounting. During the management and servicing of the public debt, all types of securities issued (issued) states, regional structures and municipalities should be taken into account. Unity credit Policy . It involves the use of a single approach in the implementation of debt management and service management activities on the part of the Center in relation to MO and regions. Risk decrease. Financial policy should include all the necessary events that contribute to the reduction of risks and lenders, and investors and the debtor himself. Publicity. All interested users must receive complete and reliable information about loans in a timely manner.
Optimality. Such a system of states should be formed, in which their repayment will be carried out with minimal risks. At the same time, the operations should have the smallest negative impact on the economy.
The concept of balancing the state budget. Stabilization fund and its macroeconomic values.
There are three concepts.
1) The first concept is based on the fact that the budget must be annually balanced. The budget: the budget balanced budget deepens the fluctuations in the economic cycle. For example, it is assumed that the economy faces a long unemployment period. The incomes of the population fall. Tax revenues to the budget are automatically reduced. In an effort to balance the budget, the government should either increase tax rates, or reduce government spending, or use the combination of these two measures. However, the consequence of all these events will be even greater reduction in total demand. In another example, you can show how the desire to balance the budget annually can stimulate inflation. In terms of inflation, tax revenues automatically increase with incomes. To prevent the upcoming excess of income over costs, the government must take the following measures: either reduce tax rates, or increase government spending, or use the combination of these two measures. It is clear that the consequence of these measures will be increased inflationary pressure in the economy. 2) The second concept is based on the fact that the budget must be balanced during the economic cycle, and not for each year. For example, inflation occurs, the government increases taxes and government spending. The positive budget balance that occurs on this basis can be used to cover the debt resulting in the recession period. Thus, the government holds positive anticyclic policies and at the same time balancing the budget, but not on an annual basis, and for the period a few years. But in this concept of the budget there is a key problem, which is that the decline and lifts in economic cycle May be unequal in depth and duration.
3) The third concept is associated with the idea of \u200b\u200bthe so-called functional finance. In accordance with this idea, the question of budget balance - on an annual or cyclic basis is secondary. The initial purpose of federal finances is to ensure non-inflationary full-time employment, that is, the balance of the economy, and not budget.
Stabilization fund - this is a surplus (excess) of the state budget; Exceeding its income over expenses. In essence, it has a labor origin. Externally, in some countries, STAGFOND protrudes in the form of income from oil and gas exports (Russia), in other oil exports (Venezuela, Norway), thirdly (Chile) - revenues from the export of medical. The phenomenon and the term were borrowed from foreign Practice. The genesis of the Stabilization Foundation refers to the practice of some foreign countries of the last quarter of the XX. Axtabilization Fund in foreign countries used:
As a medium-term tool, and in many countries a long-term financial Policy and depends on current prices on the natural resources;
As a tool for the formation of a state strategy in the implementation of future generations;
In order to form external assets of states by replenishing funds from interest income.
1. The Labilization Fund allows the state on time to fulfill payments on its external and internal obligations.
2. The size of the stabilization fund contributes to the growth of the sovereign credit rating of the country, and, as a result, the increase in the investment attractiveness of the country, which in turn may lead the influx of foreign direct investment in the country.
3. Creation of the Fund for Future Generations will have a beneficial effect on the social aspect of the state policy, and will help reduce social tensions in society and the uncertainty of the population in the "tomorrow".
4. The value of the stabilization fund increases the degree of economic independence of the state, which also affects the foreign policy of the state.
In addition to the above advantages, there are certain disadvantages, risks and other problems associated with the creation and functioning of stabilization funds. It is important - this is, of course, the issue of conservation money Funds and their increases. If there is no effective investment of these funds, a legitimate question arises: why to withdraw from the economy a significant part of its financial resources (in case it is not an urgent need to combat inflation).
In world economic science and practice there are two main approaches regarding the creation of stabilization (reserve) financial Funds:
1) One group of economists believes that stabilization funds in principle are not needed and their creation is harmful to the economy, since the financial resources are "output" from the reproduction process, leading to their irrational use;
2) another group of specialists adheres to the opinion that for the economy you need the so-called "airbag" in the form of stabilization (reserve) funds, which will smooth the influence of factors providing negative impact on the economy.
From point of view theoretical foundations The stabilization fund performs the following functions:
1) accumulative;
2) distribution;
The service of state domestic debt of the Russian Federation is made by the Bank of Russia and its institutions through the implementation of operations on the placement of debt obligations of the Russian Federation, their repayment and interest in the form of interest on them or in another form.
The fulfillment by the Bank of Russia the functions of the Government of the Russian Federation for the placement of debt obligations, their repayment and interest in the form of interest on them is carried out on the basis of special agreements concluded with the federal executive authority authorized by the Government of the Russian Federation to perform the functions of the issuer of state valuable papers.
The Bank of Russia carries out the functions of the general agent for servicing public domestic debt free.
Payment of services for posting and servicing public debt is carried out at the expense of federal budgetallocated to serving public debt.
The service of the state domestic debt of the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipal debt is made in accordance with federal laws, the laws of the Directory of the Russian Federation and the legal acts of local government bodies.
Information on debt obligations is made authorized bodies To the state debt book of the Russian Federation, the state debt book of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation or the municipal debt book on time not exceeding 3 days from the date of the occurrence of the obligation.
The information made to the municipal debt book is subject to the obligatory transfer to the authority leading the state debt book of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation, then this information is transmitted to the authority leading the state debt book of the Russian Federation, in the manner and within the deadlines that are established by this body. In the state debt book of the Russian Federation, information is made on the volume of debt obligations of the Russian Federation, the date of the obligations, forms of obligations, the fulfillment of these obligations is fully or partially and other information.
In the state debt book of the Directory of the Russian Federation, information is made on the volume of debt obligations of the subject of the Russian Federation for all government borrowings of the subject of the Russian Federation, the date of the exercise of borrowing, the forms of obligations, the fulfillment of these obligations is fully or partially, as well as other information, the composition of which is established by the executive authority of the subject RF.
In the municipal debt book, information on the volume of debt obligations of municipalities, the date of the exercise of borrowing, forms of obligations, on the execution of these obligations is fully or partially, as well as other information, the composition of which is established by the representative body of local self-government.
The state loan management is one of the directions of the state-based state policy associated with ensuring its activities as a borrower, creditor and guarantor.
Management of state loan - This is a joint action of states related to the service and repayment of public debt, the release and placement of new loans, maintaining the secondary market of debt obligations, market regulation state credit.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which determine the total budget deficit, the volume and nature of the loans necessary for its financing, are developed by credit policies and its institutional support, and carry out this activity.
The state loan management is aimed at achieving economic, social and political goals, which are defined by the trends in public progress and the current state of the country's economy.
Among major economic tse-leu - ensuring economic stabilization and growth of production, the maintenance of its competitiveness in the global market; Social goals imply ensure social stability and social progress; Political goals are formulated based on the idea of \u200b\u200bmaintaining the stability of the functioning of the political system and ensure national security.
The achievement of these goals is largely due to the management of public debt, especially external, the state of which, as world practice is still, determines not only the country's economic independence, but also the preservation of its national su-vintage, which is especially Actually for modern Russia.
Accordingly are determined and ranked tasks that are intended to solve the system of management of state loan in Russia:
a) minimizing the value of the Dol-hectare for the borrower;
b) the effective use of attracted funds, the creation of an appropriate system of accounting and control;
c) strengthening the investment nature of loans;
d) regulation of volumes borrowed obligations States and maintaining their course;
e) attracting funds on the most profitable conditions for the issuer;
(e) Determination of the priorities of the state's credit policy, ensuring the timely refund of the loans provided.
In the system of action to manage state loan, important is service and repayment of public debtSince all the costs of this kind are carried out at the expense of budgetary funds, creating additional support for it, and the late payments leads to an increase in the amount of debt at the expense of penalties. Only in the case of investment loans, maintenance and science of obligations are carried out at the expense of income from the project.
Service public debt assumes firstly, implementation of operations on the placement of debt obligations, secondly, payment of income on them and third, Repayment of debt is fully or partially according to plan or contributions to the repayment fund.
Repaymentdebt It assumes the full return of the principal amount of debt and interest on it, as well as fines and other payments associated with a late debt return.
Public debt service is carried out by the Bank of Russia and his institutions. The Bank of Russia carries out the functions of the general agent for servicing public debt free of charge. Payment of the Solution Agents for the placement and maintenance of public debt is carried out at the expense of the federal budget.
From the point of view of the investor, the most acceptable is its temporary revenue and loan repayment, calculation based on the base amount of debt and percent on it. However, in the conditions of meaningful growth of state debt and budget defi-quota, the government is forced to resort to various methods of debt regulation .
These methods are traditionally attributed refi-nansing, consolidation, conversion, unification of the loan, exchange of bonds for a regressive relationshipetc.
Refinancing - This is the repayment of the old state zadar-female by issuing new loans.
Conversion - Traditionally, this is a change in loans profitability (in force - in order to reduce the costs of managing public debt or increasing profitability for creditors).
Consolidation- Changing the term of the already released Zava Mos to the side of the increase (usually) or reduction. Essuz-Gaet relief conditions for debt payment in the form of delaying payments and repayment. It is possible to combine consolidation with conversion.
Unificationloan - This is a combination of several loans to one, when bonds of previously issued loans exchange on the bonds of a new loan. The goal is to reduce the number of types of valuable securities simultaneously, which simplifies the work and reduces the cost of the state of debt service. Unification of state loans is usually carried out with consolidation, but can be carried out and outside it.
In some cases, the Government can hold exchange bonds by regressive ratio i. .
Detention of loan repayment It differs from consolidation by the fact that in this case not only the duration of the repayment is made, but also, as a rule, the payment of income is terminated.
Conversion, consolidation, unification of state loans and the exchange of state bonds are usually carried out only in the number of internal loans. As for the deferment of the repayment of obligations, this measure is possible and relative to external debt. The repayment of the external loan is usually carried out in coordination with creditors, and this operation does not necessarily provide for a suspension of interest payments.
Under annulment of public debt It is understood as a complete refusal of the state from obligations on issued loans.
The main task of managing the public debt of Russia is changing the debt strategy and the transition from the course to postpone payments to the rate on debt reduction. By virtue of the current circumstances, this is the greatest extent refers to external debt. And here it is advisable to apply to the modern global experience of conversion financial methods to resolve external ass-feast, as the most flexible and adequate to the modern state and the credit opportunities of Russia.
Financial mechanism of conversion scheme It consists in the liquidation of a part of external debt through its exchange for national assets - national currency, bonds, shares, goods, financial assets, etc. The following options may be the most acceptable for Russia.
Debt in exchange for export. It means not raw material exports, but export finished products. This option allows you to maintain competitive production in the country, to develop exports, OS-launch new sales markets, and therefore, to maintain workers Mes-Ta, to ensure taxation and debt repayment, as well as investment financing. It is important to support the industry, having significant export potential (cosmic, aluminum-wai, aviation industry, etc.), which are already allowing products that meet international standards and can contribute to the growth of the economy as a whole.
Debt in exchange for property. This option is carried out, as a rule, within the Privatization Program, and also involves the exchange of debt obligations to the shares of privatized enterprises and attracting strategic investors. In this case, it is important to assess the value of domestic enterprises in accordance with the World Market Standards, and the exchange of debt obligations to shares should be carried out at the RUSSIAND for Russia. It is also important to determine the share of shares (companies) in property in the conversion of debt.
Debt in exchange for taxes. In this case, it is assumed to legally establishing such tax benefits For investors - derails of external debt, which would prompted them to invest. Conversion permission should be provided only when implementing investments important for the Russian economy. In this case, the external debt will be repaid due to future income.
Payment of interest payments on external public debt in local currency. This option is used in global practitioner in some cases. Payments are carried out on the attractive for creditors the course, but the transfer of money to interest payments is carried out on special investment accounts in domestic banks, and funds from these accounts can be on-law only for direct investment in the debtor's economy. All other manipulations from this kind of means and income from these investments can be carried out only after the expiration of the time conversion (at least one year).
Duty in exchange for cash.Ensures debt redemption with discon-volume on the secondary market of external debt obligations. In this case, the nominal duty decreases and the savings on future interest payments occur. The procedure of this operation is as follows: the government appoints an agent who has sufficient experience in the sale of foreign debts (as a rule, this is a large commercial bank) and establishes a discount to the nominal debt, which is accomplished by which it is ready to redeem the debts purchased to them.
Debt restructuring.This method of regulating debt is very common in modern conditions. Under the restructures, a repayment of debt liabilities with simultaneous exercise of borrowing (making other debt obligations) in the volume of debt obligations redeemed with the establishment of other conditions for debt service and repay them. The debt restructuring can be carried out with a partial debt amount (reduction) of the amount of the principal debt.
Many of the techniques described were used in the conclusion of Russia from the default 1998 in particular, it is possible to mention such methods as:
a) restructuring of bond loans in obligations with a later maturity;
b) negotiating with creditors to delay payments;
c) the use of different schemes of reconnaissance to reduce loan debt;
d) attracting bank loans for bond payments;
e) receiving bonds to the account of tax payments in exchange for housing certificates etc.;
e) redemption of their obligations with a discount;
g) early redemption of your obligations.
Russian legislation, in particular the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, provides for a number of organizational methods for managing state debt. The right to implement state external applications Russian Federation and the conclusion of contracts for the preparation of state guarantees, contracts of the guarantee to other borrowers to attract foreign loans (loans) to the Russian Federation or on its behalf - the Government of the Russian Federation or the Federal Executive Authority by the Government of the Russian Federation.
The right to exercise state external borrowing originally had the subjects of the Russian Federation, whose budgets did not receive financial assistance to leveling budgetary security. On the this moment The ban on external borrowing for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was introduced (they were not envisaged for the municipalities) - the relevant amendment to the fiscal code came into effect from January 1, 2002
The maximum amount of state external borrowing of the Ros-Syan Federation should not exceed the annual amount of payments for the maintenance and repayment of the country's state external debt.
The maximum amount of public debt of the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipal debt should not exceed the income of the relevant budget without taking into account financial assistance from the budgets of other levels budget system RF.
As a debt management tool are offered pro-grams of external and internal borrowingprovided by the Russian Federation of state loans, indicating the purpose, sources, refund terms, total loans or pre-delivered loans.
In the country is introduced one system accounting and registration of state borrowing
19.1. In accordance with the main directions budget Policy For 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the main directions), the main task for the upcoming three-year period is to ensure a smooth transition to fully market financing of the budget deficit, while it is planned to be a planned decline in its GDP for 1 percentage item annually in 2017 - 2019. The role of sovereign funds as sources of funding budget deficit will be reduced, the share of internal borrowing will grow in the structure of its financing. At the same time, the volume of borrowing in foreign markets will be determined primarily in the task of maintaining the liquidity of the market of sovereign Eurobonds. The main directions states that the implementation of such a strategy for financing the deficit will allow to preserve the level of public debt in acceptable volumes - up to 17% of GDP.
State debtin 2017, compared with the estimate of 2016 will increase from 13,445.2 billion rubles (16.2% of GDP) before 13 972.2 billion rubles (16.1% of GDP),or 527.0 billion rubles (by 3.9%), in 2018 - to 15 177.1 billion rubles (16.4% of GDP), or 1,731.9 billion rubles (by 12.9%), in 2019 - to 16 651.9 billion rubles (16.8% GDP), or 3,206.7 billion rubles (by 23.9%). Wherein sharestate internal debt In the aggregate volume of public debt in 2017 - 2019 will increase and will be 74.1%, 76.3% and 76.8%, sharestate external debtdecline - 25.9%, 23.7% and 23.2% respectively.
The volume of state domestic debt of the Russian Federation compared with the estimate of 2016 will increase from 9,867.8 billion rubles to 12,788.4 billion rubles in 2019, or 2,920.6 billion rubles (1.3 times). The increase in the amount of state foreign debt of the Russian Federation from 3,577.4 billion rubles in 2016 to 3,863.5 billion rubles in 2019, or by 286.1 billion rubles (by 8%), is predicted.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of public debt in 2014 - 2019 (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(billion rubles)
| 2014 report | 2015 report | 2016 law | 2016, Evaluation | 2017 year, project | 2018 project | 2019, project | |
| State duty of the Russian Federation | 10 299,1 | 10 951,9 | 12 317,5 | 13 445,2 | 13 972,2 | 15 177,1 | 16 651,9 |
| % to GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 15,7 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 |
| % to the previous year | 136,4 | 106,3 | 112,5 | 122,8 | 103,9 | 108,6 | 109,7 |
| % by 2016 | 103,9 | 112,9 | 123,9 | ||||
| including: | |||||||
| State domestic debt | 7 241,2 | 7 307,6 | 8 817,8 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 |
| % to GDP | 9,3 | 11,2 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 12,5 | 12,9 | |
| % to the previous year | 126,5 | 120,4 | 114,4 | 104,9 | 111,9 | 110,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 104,9 | 117,4 | 129,6 | ||||
| State external debt | 3 057,9 | 3 644,3 | 3 499,7 | 3 577,4 | 3 620,6 | 3 596,2 | 3 863,5 |
| % to GDP | 3,9 | 4,5 | 4,4 | 4,3 | 4,2 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| % to the previous year | 167,5 | 119,2 | 98,2 | 101,2 | 99,3 | 107,4 | |
| % by 2016 | 101,2 | 100,5 | |||||
| Reference: | |||||||
| GDP | 77 945,1 | 80 804,3 | 78 673,0 | 82 815,0 | 86 806,0 | 92 296,0 | 98 860,0 |
| Ruble exchange rate | 61 | 63,3 | 67,5 | 67,5 | 68,7 | 71,1 | |
| State external debt in billion US dollars | 50,0 | 55,1 | 55,1 | 53,6 | 52,8 | 53,6 |
Analysis of the given data shows that in 2017 - 2019 compared with the 2016 rating, along with an increase in absolute volume public debt of the Russian Federationit increases its attitude to GDP from 16.2% to 16.8% in 2019, while the public domestic debt increases from 11.9% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP in 2019, the external debt will decrease with 4.3% of GDP up to 3.9% of GDP, respectively.
Project passport state program The Russian Federation "Management of public finance and regulation of financial markets" The value of the target indicator "The public debt of the Russian Federation in relation to the gross domestic product, not more" is reduced in 2016 from 14.3% to 20%, the same value of the indicator is provided for in 2017 - 2019. Thus, the amount of public debt of the Russian Federation in the upcoming period is predicted at a level of up to 17% of GDP, that is, will continue at a relatively safe level.
Data on the change in the volume of public debt in 2008 - 2019 are presented in the next diagram.
In order to determine the safe levels of volumes and structure of public debt in world practice, various debt stability indicators are used. When analyzing the indicators of debt stability from budget positions, the ratios of government debt and indicators characterizing the state of the state budget are estimated.
The main indicators used in world practice, characterizing the degree of debt sustainability, in relation to the Russian Federation in 2014 - 2019 are given in the following table.
| Name of the indicator | year 2014 | 2015 year | 2016 year (estimate) | 2017 year (forecast) | 2018 (forecast) | 2019 (forecast) | Criterion (indicative values) |
| National debt of the Russian Federation,% GDP | 13,2 | 13,6 | 16,2 | 16,1 | 16,4 | 16,8 | < 50 % |
| The proportion of state domestic debt in the total state debt of the Russian Federation,% | 70,3 | 66,7 | 73,4 | 74,1 | 76,3 | 76,8 | > 50 % |
| The share of public debt service costs in the total federal budget expenditures,% | 2,8 | 3,3 | 3,9 | 4,5 | 5,3 | 5,4 | < 10 % |
| Attitude annual sum payments to repay and servicing public debt for federal budget revenues,% | 5,6 | 10,1 | 9,4 | 11,9 | 11,9 | 11,6 | < 10 % |
| The ratio of public debt of the Russian Federation to the income of the federal budget,% | 80,2 | 100,6 | 103,6 | 108,2 | 112,2 | < 250 % | |
| The attitude of the state foreign debt of the Russian Federation to the annual volume of exports of goods and services,% | 9,6 | 12,7 | 17,1 | 16,3 | 15,6 | 15,3 | < 220 % |
| Attitude of the annual amount of payments to pay and servicing public external debt on the annual volume of exports of goods and services,% | 0,8 | 1,7 | 1,3 | 1,9 | 2,3 | 1,6 | < 25 % |
From the data table, it is clear that such indicators as the ratio of public debt for GDP, the share of public debt maintenance costs in the total expenditures of the federal budget, the attitude of public debt to the federal budget revenues, even taking into account the growth of their values \u200b\u200bin 2017 - 2019 exceed threshold values. At the same time, the coefficient characterizing the ratio of the annual amount of payments to repay and servicing public debt to the federal budget revenues, according to the bills of draft law in 2017 - 2019 slightly exceeds the threshold level.
The coefficient of coating showing the ratio of payments for repayment and serving public debt to the total volume of borrowing, in 2017 - 2019 will be 84.7%, 92.9% and 91.9%, respectively (in 2015 its value was 195.2% , in 2016 - 104.8%). The decrease in the specified ratio is mainly due to a significant increase in the volume of government borrowing of the Russian Federation through the placement of government securities in the domestic market in the period under consideration. Against the background of a significant increase in the total volume of demand from investors on their conditions on their conditions, a sharp increase in state borrowing can lead to a deterioration in the conditions for the placement of government bonds (increasing yield and reduction of borrowing deadlines in the context of the capacity of the Russian debt market and the horizon of investing its participants ), as well as to a significant increase in the volume of state domestic debt of the Russian Federation and an increase in the debt burden on the federal budget in terms of its service.
19.2. upper limit of state domestic debt On January 1, 2018 it is envisaged in the amount of 10 351.6 billion rubles,which is 483.8 billion rubles, or by 4.9%, above the maximum amount of state-held debt as of January 1, 2017, established Federal law No. 359-FZ, taking into account changes.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of state domestic debt (as of the end of the year) in 2015 - 2019 is presented in the following table.
| 2015 report | 2016 (Federal Law No. 359-FZ, taking into account changes) | 2017 year, project | 2018 project | 2019, project | 2019 by 2016,% | ||||||
| billion rubles | Stroy Tour,% | billion rubles | Stroy Tour,% | billion rubles | Stroy Tour,% | billion rubles | Stroy Tour,% | billion rubles | Stroy Tour,% | % | |
| State domestic debt, total | 7 307,6 | 9 867,8 | 10 351,6 | 11 580,9 | 12 788,4 | 129,6 | |||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| State securities | 5 573,1 | 76,3 | 6 141,1 | 62,2 | 7 205,2 | 69,6 | 8 301,0 | 71,7 | 9 388,8 | 73,4 | 153,7 |
| State guarantees | 1 734,5 | 23,7 | 3 726,7 | 37,8 | 3 146,4 | 30,4 | 3 279,9 | 28,3 | 3 399,6 | 26,6 | 91,2 |
An analysis of the given data shows that the growth of state domestic debt is due to an increase in debt on state securities, the nominal value of which is indicated in the currency of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the share of public securities debt in the amount of state domestic debt will increase from 69.6% in 2017 to 73.4% in 2019, state guarantees - It will decrease from 30.4% in 2017 to 26.6% in 2019.
The volume of domestic debt expressed in government securities in 2017 will be 7,0205.2 billion rubles, which is 1,098.0 billion rubles, or 18%, more than in 2016, and 1 632.1 billion rubles, or by 29.3%, more than in 2015. For 2017 - 2019, it will increase 1.5 times and by the end of 2019 will be 9,388.8 billion rubles.
In accordance with the main directions of the Ministry of Finance of Russia for additional attraction borrowed money It is planned to issue new special government securities for the population.
In accordance with Article 13 of the draft law and the Program of State Guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Program of Guarantees) for 2017 (annex 45 to the draft law) Providing state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation (hereinafter also - guarantees) is provided for in 2017 in the amount of 190.1 billion rubles.
The planned amount of guarantees in 2017 is significantly lower than the volumes of state guarantees provided for by the programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2012-2016. Thus, the planned volume in 2017 by 67.9% lower than the total amount of 2016 guarantee (592.5 billion rubles), 66.2% lower than the total amount of 2015 guarantee (563.3 billion rubles).
At the same time, for a number of years, there has been a negative trend on the non-fulfillment of guarantees: In 2011, the volume of actually issued guarantees was 48.1% of the guarantee guaranteeing program, for 2012 - 67.8%, for 2013 - 68.3%, For 2014 - 77.1%, for 2015 - 37%. In January - October 2016, the execution of the guarantee program is only 0.2% of the established volume (592.5 billion rubles).
Data on the volume of state guarantees in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 - 2019 for guarantee purposes are presented in the following table.
| Purpose of guarantee | Volume of providing state guarantees in 2017, million rubles | Share in total,% | Volume of providing state guarantees in 2018, million rubles | Volume of providing state guarantees in 2019, million rubles |
| On loans or bond loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner prescribed by the Government of the Russian Federation to implement investment projects or on other purposes established by the Government of the Russian Federation | 100 000,0 | 52,6 | 100 000,0 | 100 000,0 |
| On loans or bond loans attracted by subsidiaries or dependent organizations of the State Corporation to promote the development, production and export of high-tech industrial products "Rostech", as well as subsidiaries and dependent organizations of the specified legal entities For the purpose of acquiring ownership of Russian joint-stock companies or shares in the authorized capital of Limited Liability Comparisons | 6 400,0 | 3,4 | not provided | not provided |
| On loans attracted by the organizations of the Defense and Industrial Complex for the implementation of projects carried out within the framework of the Federal Target Program "Development of the Defense Industrial Complex of the Russian Federation for 2011 - 2020" | 43 724,7 | not provided | not provided | |
| On loans or bond loans attracted by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the North Caucasus territory federal District, to implement investment projects to create a tourist cluster in the North Caucasus Federal District | 8 000,0 | 4,2 | 9 000,0 | 9 000,0 |
| On loans or bond loans attracted joint Stock Company RUSNANO for the implementation of investment projects in the field of nanoindustry, financing investment funds Nanotechnologies, as well as to repay loans or bond loans attracted by Rosnano JSC earlier on the implementation of the goals specified in the Charter of Rosnano JSC | 21 100,0 | 11,1 | 13 400,0 | not provided |
| On loans attracted by legal entities registered and carrying out their main statutory activities in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, to implement investment projects in the territory of the North Caucasus Federal District | 10 000,0 | 5,3 | 10 000,0 | 10 000,0 |
| According to loans attracted by JSC United Engine-Building Corporation on financing for the organization of serial production of engine parts and motogondals of promising engines for civil aviation | 899,2 | 0,5 | 1 115,6 | 726,9 |
| TOTAL | 190 123,9 | 133 515,6 | 119 726,9 |
The main amount of guarantees planned to be provided in 2017 fall on the purpose of guaranteeing "on loans or bond loans attracted by legal entities selected in the manner prescribed by the Government of the Russian Federation to carry out investment projects or on other purposes established by the Government of the Russian Federation." In accordance with the draft law in 2017, according to this purpose, guaranteed is planned to provide state guarantees in the amount of 100.0 billion rubles, which is 52.6% of the total provision provided for by the program.
The amount of guarantees for this purpose is 175.3 billion rubles in 2016, or 29.6% of the total guarantee; In 2015 - 297.5 billion rubles, or 52.8%; In 2014 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 14.1%; in 2013 - 97.5 billion rubles, or 15.9%; In 2012 - 128.5 billion rubles, or 26%.
There should be an insufficient level of guarantee programs for the indicated guaranteeing goal last years. Thus, in 2012, state guarantees in the amount of 67.6 billion rubles were actually provided, or 52.6% of the established amount of guarantee, in 2013, the guarantees were not provided, in 2014, 44.0 billion rubles were actually provided, or 45.1%, in 2015 - 50.9 billion rubles, or 17.1%. As of October 1, 2016, according to the state debt book, the Russian Federation guarantees were not provided for this purpose.
Also, for a number of years, the main volume of state guarantees accounted for the goal of guaranteeing "on loans attracted by the organizations of the defense and industrial complex for the purposes of fulfillment (implementation) of the state defense order." Thus, in 2012, the amount of guarantees for this purpose amounted to 40.4% of the total, provided for by the program of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2012; in 2013 - 65.2%; In 2014 - 71.8%; In 2015 - 4.6%; In 2016 - 35.3%. In 2017, the provision of state guarantees for this purpose is not provided.
In 2017, a significant amount of state guarantee is planned to guarantee the goal "on loans attracted by the organizations of a defense and industrial complex for the implementation of projects carried out within the framework of the Federal Target Program" Development of the Defense Industrial Complex of the Russian Federation for 2011 - 2020 ", which is 23 % of the total amount provided for by the Program of Guarantees.
It should be noted that there are risks of non-fulfillment of the planned amounts of providing state guarantees provided for by the Program of Guarantees for 2017. So, as of October 1, 2016, only 2 state guarantees are provided in the amount of 1,072.0 million rubles, or 0.2% of the amount provided for by the program of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation for 2016. At the same time, the Accounts Chamber has repeatedly noticed the unevenness of the provision of state guarantees during the year. So, the bulk of the provision of state guarantees falls annually for December.
The bulk of the Russian Federation planned to provide in 2017 in 2017 in the currency of the Russian Federation falls on guarantees with the right of a regressive claim or with the concession of the rights of claims to the person, for whose obligations of the state guarantee of the Russian Federation - 83.6% of the total. The provision of a state guarantee without the right of regressing requirement is planned by Rosnano JSC in the amount of 21.1 billion rubles (the volume of state guaranteeing Rosnano JSC in 2016 is 35.5 billion rubles) and on loans attracted by legal entities registered and implementing Its main statutory activities in the territory of SCFO, on the implementation of investment projects in the SCFO, in the amount of 10.0 billion rubles.
The draft Guarantee Program for 2017 on the possible execution of state guarantees of the Russian Federation provides for budget allocations:
due to sources of financing the deficit of the federal budget for warranties provided with the right of regressing requirements - 80,573.4 million rubles;
according to the expenditures of the federal budget for guarantees provided without the right to regress and without concessions of the rights of claim - 11,169.9 million rubles.
According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the volume of planned budget allocations for the possible execution of state guarantees of the Russian Federation in the currency of the Russian Federation in 2017 due to an increase in the amount of obligations increased compared with the Federal Law No. 359-FZ established for 2016: on sources of funding for the federal budget deficit - by 39,635.2 million rubles, or 2 times, according to the expenses of the federal budget - by 6,479.2 million rubles, or 2.4 times.
Analysis of the actual use of budget allocations provided for the fulfillment of state guarantees on possible guarantee cases showed that in 2014 - 2015 the fulfillment of state guarantees was not carried out, in January - September 2016, the guarantor was fulfilled by the obligations in the amount of 133.84 million rubles.
So far, the Ministry of Finance of Russia, measures to implement the budgetary powers to organize the draft federal budget in terms of the implementation of the methodological guidance in the formation of the draft government guarantees are not accepted. Normative act The Ministry of Finance of Russia, according to the procedure for the formation of the draft program of state guarantees of the Russian Federation (including the purposes and volumes of guaranteeing, the presence or absence of the right to regress the guarantor, as well as the presence of other conditions, including analysis financial state Principal in providing warranty) is not accepted.
It should be noted that the Accounts Chamber still in its conclusion on the report on the execution of the federal budget for 2015 noted that regulatory document The Ministry of Finance of Russia, which determines the procedure for the formation of draft programs of state guarantees of the Russian Federation, including in the currency of the Russian Federation, has not been approved.
19.3. In accordance with Article 1 of the draft law upper limit of state external debt of the Russian Federation As of January 1, 2018, it is envisaged in the amount 53.6 billion US dollars, or 48.7 billion euros, which is 1.5 billion US dollars, or by 2.7%, less than the upper limit of external debt as of January 1, 2017, established by Federal Law No. 359-FZ, taking into account changes.
The dynamics of the volume and structure of state external debt (at the end of the year) is presented in the following table.
(million US dollars)
| 2015 report | 2016, Evaluation | 2017 year, project | 2018 project | 2019, project | |||||||
| sum | Stroy Tour,% | sum | Stroy Tour,% | sum | Stroy Tour,% | sum | Stroy Tour,% | sum | Stroy Tour,% | ||
| State External Duty of the Russian Federation - Total | 50 002,4 | 52 803,0 | 53 558,8 | 52 806,8 | 53 585,9 | ||||||
| including: | |||||||||||
| Loans foreign statesincluding targets foreign loans (borrowing), MFIs, other constituent entities of international law, foreign legal entities in foreign currency | 2 209,9 | 4,4 | 1 693,3 | 3,2 | 1 529,6 | 2,9 | 1 317,1 | 2,5 | 1 093,7 | ||
| State securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency | 35 916,6 | 71,8 | 37 653,8 | 71,3 | 37 373,3 | 69,8 | 35 633,8 | 67,5 | 35 436,3 | 66,1 | |
| State guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency | 11 875,9 | 23,8 | 13 455,9 | 25,5 | 14 655,9 | 27,4 | 15 855,9 | 17 055,9 | 31,8 |
When calculating the volume of state foreign debt of the Russian Federation, the following currency rates were used to the specified dates: 64.9 rubles for 1 US dollar to calculate debt on January 1, 2017; 67.6 rubles for 1 US dollar to calculate debt on January 1, 2018; 68.1 rubles for 1 US dollar to calculate debt on January 1, 2019; 72.1 rubles for 1 US dollar to calculate debt on January 1, 2020. To recalculate the debt amounts expressed in the euro, the coefficient of 1.10 is used, with the exception of debt on January 1, 2017, calculated using the coefficient of 1.11.
The most significant part of the state external debt of the Russian Federation falls on the state securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in foreign currency. As of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, it will be 71.3% and 69.8% of the amount of state external debt, expressed in US dollars, which is somewhat lower than January 1, 2016 (71.8%). In 2018 and 2019, the share of state securities of the Russian Federation nominated in foreign currency will decrease slightly slightly and will be 67.5% and 66.1%, respectively.
It is predicted that the share of debt on state guarantees of the Russian Federation in foreign currency will be as of January 1, 2017 and January 1, 2018, respectively, 25.5% and 27.4% (compared with 23.8% on January 1, 2016), January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2020 - 30% and 31.8%. Debt share in front of MFIs, government governments and deposit agreement with Central Bank Libya will continue to decline: from 4.4% on January 1, 2016 to 2% on January 1, 2020.
As of January 1, 2016, state foreign debt on bonds of external bonded loans of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as OBO) amounted to $ 35,911.2 million (2,617.3 billion rubles). In 2016, OBOs were placed in the amount of $ 3,000.0 million, and taking into account the repayment of $ 1,273.1 million on January 1, 2017 Eurobonds debt will be $ 37,650.5 million (2 443.5 billion rubles).
State debt: concept, types
The existence of a state loan leads to the emergence of public debt.
State debt is the amount of state debt to internal and external creditors.
The total amount of public debt consists of all issued and outstanding debt obligations of the state, interest on them, including issued guarantees on loans provided to foreign borrowers.
Causes of public debt:
Chronic state budget deficit;
Exceeding the growth rate of government spending on the growth rate of government revenues;
Discretional fiscal policy aimed at reducing the tax burden without a corresponding reduction in government spending;
Expansion of the economic function of the state;
Attracting non-resident funds in order to support the stability of the national currency;
The influence of political business cycles (excessive increase in government spending on the eve of elections to conquer popularity by voters);
Militarization, wars and others.
Current debt - This is the amount of debt to be repurchased in the current year, and payable during this period percent for all currently issued loans.
Capital duty - this is total amount Debt and interest that should be paid on loans.
Depending on the placement of loans, public debt may be inner or external.
Internal debt - a set of state obligations in front of residents;
External debt - A combination of state obligations in front of non-residents.
The total amount of internal debt state can be divided into two parts:
1. Monetizated debt - The amount of state issued and non-missing debt obligations, including issued guarantees on loans provided to foreign borrowers, local authorities, state enterprises.
2. Unconenetized debt - this is not fulfilled by the state financial obligations stipulated by the current legislation (debt on the payment of pensions, scholarships, wages and other types social payments); Debt on state orders, providing services by government agencies and others.
State domestic debt is guaranteed by all property in nationwide ownership.
Service of public debt - This is a set of state events for the placement of bonds and other securities, repayment of loans, interest payments on them, clarifying and changing the conditions for the repayment of issued loans, determining the conditions and timing of the release of new government securities.
Public debt service is carried out by the Ministry of Finance through the banking system.
To finance the costs of accommodation, pay income and repay the debt obligations of the government Ukrainethe state budget creates a public debt service fund. In this fund, funds are credited in the amount of 50% of state enterprises obtained from the privatization of property.
The magnitude of the principal amount of public debt should not exceed 60% of the actual annual volume of the gross domestic product of Ukraine. In case of exceeding the limit amount of debt, the Cabinet of Ministers is obliged to take measures to reduce the amount of public debt to 60% and lower.
The Budget Code has introduced the corresponding restrictions for subjects RF(municipalities):
1) the maximum amount of state debt of the subject of the Russian Federation (municipality) should not exceed the volume of revenues of the relevant budget without taking into account financial assistance from the budgets of other levels of the budget system;
2) The maximum amount of expenses for servicing the debt of the subject of the Russian Federation (municipality) should not exceed 15% of the expenditures of its budget.
The representative body must also make decisions about the feasibility of targeted loans for investment programs, financing social and other events. Wherein mandatory condition Loan release is the registration of securities emissions prospectus in federal Commission on the securities market of the Russian Federation. In the emission transpision reflects the volume of the loan, the dates of the repayment, the conditions for the treatment of securities and other provisions.
Repayment of loans is carried out at the expense of budget funds.
In conditions of significant public debt, the state resorts to refinancing of public debt. Repayment of debt by issuing new loans.
Refinancing can be used and when servicing external debt, provided that the country's reputation on the international financial marketAs well as economic and political stability will not cause doubts.
When servicing external and internal debt, the service coefficient is determined.
For external debt, it is calculated as the attitude of all payments by debt to the foreign exchange of the state, expressed as a percentage.
A favorable service level is considered to be the value of the service coefficient at 25%.
The limit dimensions of the state domestic debt of Ukraine, its structure, sources and maturity time establishes the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine at the same time with the statement of the state budget of Ukraine.
Sources of repayment of external debt:
Gold reserves;
Tools derived from privatization state property;
New loans.
Stages of the State Duty Management Process:
Attracting funds;
Placement of borrowed funds;
Debt return and interest payment.
Methods of public debt management:
Conversion- Changing loan yield (usually in the direction of the decline in interest).
Consolidation - an increase in the deadlines of the previously issued loans.
Unification of loan - Association of several loans in one, when bonds previously issued several loans exchange on the bonds of a new loan.
Exchange of bonds on a regressive relationship - Several previously released bonds are equal to one new bond.
Detention of loan repayment - It is carried out when the release of new loans is used only for serviced loans issued earlier. To overcome this financial situation, the government announces a delay to repay a loan. This method differs from consolidation by the fact that not only the repayment time is transferred, but also the payment of income (in consolidation of loans, the owners of the bonds will continue to receive their income).
Cancellation of debt - The state is completely refusing to debt obligations, which may be due to its financial inability (bankruptcy or political motifs).
