Analytics
Analytics - In this section you will find articles about the game in bookmakers, about profitability / ways of playing on different types Sports, different leagues, different types of stakes articles about the mathematical side of forecasting and some other materials with which we advise you to familiarize yourself.
Articles:
How to make a forecast
- Accounting for rates - why is it important?
- Why is the ordinar better express?
- Betting on NHL (Part 1)
- Betting on NBA (Part 1)
- Methods of probability theory and statistics at rates 1
- Methods of probability theory and statistics at rates 2
- Psychological aspects of the game in the bookmakers
- When should you bet?
- Sport rates. History.
- About myths. Column of the editor-in-chief of 09.07.2002
This article is a crash from the book J.R.Miller
Translation carried out Probettor
In the article, everything is indicated by the example of professional american footballAlthough the same principles can be used for other sports.
The first thing you need is a reference point. it fast way Determine the preliminary account.
To start making their opinion on the outcome of the Football game - logical steps will be the preparation of pre-forecast; The reference point is the "initial" forecast. Using this "first" account as a point of reference, you can draw up your judgment by adding other factors that affect the game. The preliminary forecast will serve as an initial point from which you will withdraw the forecast using all other subjective and abstract factors that will become part of your final forecast.
This preliminary forecast is better to compile using the statistics of previous games. Statistics are the foundation and the basis of any good handicapper system, because they offer the best keys to the skill levels. But only the ability to handle statistics is not the most defining. Mix on the mustache - it is far from the most defining. The winner of the football definitely uses the "cocktail" of the three main types of determining factors for the preparation of the forecast.
1) Abstract (abstractual) Factors.
These factors generally do not apply to the levels of team talents. These include - weakening the team due to injuries, unexpected injuries, crazy turns in the game, weather, fans noise, illness. These factors are very difficult to forecast. The biggest abstract factor of all is a stupid Pruh / Never (luck / failure).
2) Subjective factors (subjective - personal).
These factors include all motivational aspects that play an important role. They include everything that can affect the desire of the team to win and the ability to concentrate. Subjective factors include everything, from revenge to drunken, also negotiations on contracts, injuries, intracomanda intrigues, dismissed coaches, jealousy, personal conflicts, family problems ... any and / or all emotional topics.
3) Objective factors
They include factors that are understandable and obvious to everyone - the best indicators of the level of the abilities of the team; "Provable" team talent gives us an indicator of team performances in previous matches ... Statistics.
The first category (abstract factors) is the easiest of these three, because it is most difficult to apply with it - it is simply you can almost always ignore it. Chapter 10 discussed several abstract factors (for example, the weather) - but mostly little here can be done - as everything is based on the usual Pruh. It is just necessary to hope that the good and bad "surprises" will row.
When it comes to professional sports teams, you can accurately believe that subjective factors are more significant, especially in relation to the line. Undoubtedly, your ability to faithfully assess the chances of teams and success in sportbetting will be determined by the knowledge of the effect of motivational factors. These factors are described in more detail in chapters 3 and 4 and everywhere in the book.
Naturally, to compile a forecast, taking into account the subjective factors, you need some measure or point of reference. Therefore, the main purpose of mathematical formulas based on statistics is the withdrawal of this point based on the previous perfminance. Statistics can you tell you a lot and it is very important to know the previous strength of the teams.
But at the same time, we fear too much to rely on some mathematical formulas. You should simply use the forecast based on statistics to then comprise a more accurate forecast that takes into account the subjective and abstract factors.
The use of mathematical formulas.
I would not say that I reducing the meaning of mathematics and statistics, I do not do that. Do not deceive the idea of \u200b\u200bthe simplicity of the following formula.
With a long period of "operation", the mathematical formula, given in this chapter, works approximately as many other good analysis formulas, including much more complex "YARDS-PER-POINT" of formulas and entangle the formulas of computer geniuses and thoughts titans. (The term "long-term" means at least 500 observations, events.
I want to say that this formula has an expectation of 60% of successful forecasts in general and approximately 54-55% of victories against Pointspred (3.1% to 5% with turnover - approx. Translation into a clear language).
I experimented for many years with many rather complex systems, including those that are based on Yards-Per-Point and many others based on different statistical methods. I never found some important improvements over the very simple formula below.
I have no arguments for those guys who insist on building very complex statistical systems that occupy hours to issue a forecast; I just do not find and never seen the system better than this simple system.
Appointment of form
The proposed form should contribute to the improvement of the methods of predicting the possibilities of foreign states. To this end special attention Treats to the importance the following points:
a) a consistent description of the favorable 2 and non-
1 This form is a modified scheme proposed in the article of Colonel Walter Siiower "Risk Assessment", MILITARY REVIEW,COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE, FT. LEAVENWORTH, KANSAS, AUG. 1953.
2 Under the "favorable" factors are the factors that contribute to the implementation of the assumption under consideration. For example, if a five-year forecast is made regarding the development of higher education in the USSR or the development of air force in Communist China, then the favorable factors will be those that will contribute to the development of education or air force. These factors do not necessarily have to favor the United States. The essence is that when drawing up forecast wereequally accountsarguments for andvs.
Foresight
favorable factors with an assessment of the final result of their interaction, approximately how it is done in the assessment of the situation in accordance with the field charter of the US Army FM-101-5.
b) a comparison of the situation in a foreign state with a similar provision known to us in cases where it is possible.
c) a clear formulation of reasonable assumptions, determining the upper and lower limits of the development of this phenomenon and the various capabilities in this area. The forecast should contain an indication of some major factors that determine the development of the phenomenon under study, as well as the indication of the degree of reliability of the forecast.
Explanations
Consistent description of both favorable and adverse factors helps to identify essential factorsdetermining the development of this phenomenon, and determine which combination of the effect they can have a positive or negative. Such an approach helps comprehensively explorephenomenon, clarify some currently applied methods of work and establish the decisive moments on which the foresight is based.
Comparing the situation in a foreign state with a similar position known to us, the current factors of which we are known and can be studied, we shed some light on the studied phenomenon that would otherwise remain unclear.
Reasonable assumptions indicate the possible upper and lower limits of the development of the phenomenon under study and help to better understand the correctness of the quantitative indicators and the accuracy of the estimates made.
All these techniques will bring a little more benefit in the preparation of intelligence forecasts compared to the limited benefit that they bring in general, and the noticeable benefit of them in some areas, such as economic statistics. They will help develop the skills of consistent thinking and make a clearer basis on which we build our own conclusions.
Approximate form of document
This form should be considered only as a manual and apply in cases when it is suitable. Separate non-applicable items should be omitted.
Formulation of the problem
Assumptions
Research and Terminology
General consideration of the problem.Indication of the importance of the problem; description of the overall setting; A brief list of general factors resulting in the studied phenomenon. This section of the document provides for consideration primarily such permanent factors that need alwaysrecognize when solving this kind of problem, and not private factors associated with this country or phenomenon. The remaining sections of the document concern only this particular country and the circumstances of the task, if the latter is needed.
Historical analysis.The development of the studied phenomenon and its trend. Drawing up diagrams in cases where it is possible. The reasons caused by the development of the studied phenomenon in this direction. Analyzing on the basis of historical analysis, which principle of foresight should be elected - an anticipation that is confined to register sustainable trends, developing events in a certain direction or cyclical development of events.
The status quo.The study of this is the source point for the study of the future. The volume of our knowledge regarding the facts and research methods is determined.
Favorable factors.Each significant factor favored by the development of phenomena, which is discussed in this forecast, is considered separately; An estimate of the maximal effect is given, which may have the effect of each of these factors. The likelihood of preservation is determined by a certain time in the future of this degree of efficiency of action of each of the factors.
Adverse factors.Considered from the same positions as favorable.
Similar provisions.The studied phenomenon compares
Foresight
with similar phenomena, which we have more information, for example, with the phenomena in the past in the same foreign state, or with well-known phenomena in the United States or some friendly country.
Causes, most important factors and decisive moments.Each of these factors, which are important, and perhaps even crucial.
Final consideration of the problem as a whole.The relationship of all the above mentioned points is taken into account.
Conclusions.Include an indication of the degree of reliability of the forecast and in cases where it is possible, to the degree of accuracy of the digital data.
Part of the third
Information
Work intelligence
As profession
Socio-economic forecasting has important For the development of the theory and practice of management. The essence of forecasting reveals Fig.1.
Quality of life, interest in the future flows out of the immediate and acute practical needs of today. The need to predict the probabilistic outcome of events in the future were never so relevant as in a variable medium. This is due to the high uncertainty of events due to functioning market economy.
Foresight of events makes it possible to prepare them in advance, take into account their positive and negative consequencesAnd if possible, try to prevent one of the identified alternatives to the future.
Decisions made today should be based on the evaluation of the development of phenomena in the future, in turn, they are more or less affected by this future. The underestimation of the importance of these consequences leads to errors that slow down the development of socio-economic systems.
Fig. 1. Essence of forecasting
Thus, the objective need for forecasting in conditions of a changeable environment and a market economy is due to:
- increasing the complexity of control objects.
- an increase in the uncertainty of events.
- the pronounced dynamic character of the external environment.
- the multipliness of the economy and a change in the forms of ownership, improving the responsibility of the owner's responsibility for the results of its activities.
- increasing the pace of moral aging of goods and services.
- tightening competitive struggle.
- the inability of the market economy to self-regulation, especially on the crisis stages of the reproduction cycle.
the activities of the state as a subject of market relations.
When studying the role of forecasting - planning in commercial activity Under the conditions of unstable economic environment There is a question of whether the degree of influence of forecasting on the results of the management changes with the change in the degree of relative security of commercial activities by resources or this role remains constant, regardless of this factor. The degree of relative security of commercial activities is called the ratio of the real amount of relevant resources to the minimum required amount for the norms for the implementation of the relevant product creation program, production development.
Prediction is the fundamental basis for commercial activities when performing any of the inherent functions. Forecasting and planning are some system of methodological techniques, the execution of which in a certain sequence ensures the effectiveness of the decisions taken. This is due to the fact that compliance with systemic unity and the established sequence of the stages "Search forecast is a regulatory forecast - strategic planning - Business planning - promising planning - current planning - operational planning "allows you to consistently disclose the uncertainties of an unstable economic environment, as well as the state of the enterprise itself. Skip one of the elements of this system can lead to:
Reduce planning accuracy;
Risk when making a decision.
Therefore, to ensure the possibility of practical use of forecasts and plans in the conditions of an unstable economic environment, combinations of the following parameters can be used as parameters of the classification of plans:
Planning objects - organizational and production systems, its subsystems, elements, sites, jobs;
Planning periods defined not calendar, but measured in the duration of cycles, their stage or phases of the stages of the life cycle.
We introduce general concept, uniting all varieties of obtaining information about the future, is an anticipation. The foresight is divided into scientific and unscientific (intuitive, ordinary, religious).
Scientific foresight - Based on the knowledge of the patterns of the development of nature, society and thinking.
Intuitive foresight -based on the premonitions of a person.
Ordinary foresight - Based on the everyday experience associated with the analogies, examples, etc.
Religious (prophetic) foresight - Based on faith in supernatural forces, on superstitions, etc.
The foresight affects two interrelated set of forms of its concretization related to the category of foresights (they are conjugate).
a. Predicted (descriptive, descriptive).
b. Precurative (prescriptive, prescribed).
Prediction -a description of the possible or desirable prospects, states or solutions to the future problems.
Prediction - Actually the solution of these problems using information about the future for the purposeful socio-economic development of society.
Prediction is poured into the following forms:
a) premonition;
b) anticipation;
c) prediction;
d) forecasting.
Premonition(simple anticipation) - contains information about the future at the level of intuition, i.e. Subconscious.
Pre-coming(complex anticipation) – includes information about the future basis of life experience, not based on special scientific research.
Forecasting -indicates a special scientific research, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of socio-economic society.
Forecasting is the process of forming development forecasts based on the analysis of trends in this development.
Preparation acts in the following forms:
a) goaling;
b) planning;
c) programming;
d) Design.
Goaling- Establishing an ideal asset.
Planning- projection into the future of human activity to achieve a pre-installed goal under certain means, transformation of information about the future in directive for targeted activities.
Programming- Means the establishment of basic provisions, which are then deployed in planning or a sequence of specific measures to implement the plan.
Design- Creating specific images of the future, specific details developed by programs.
Thus, the management as a whole as it integrates the four listed concepts since each of them is based on the same element (solution).
Forecast - It is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment of the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future or about alternative paths and the timing of their achievement.
purpose- This is a decision regarding the suggested result of economic activity.
Plan- This is a solution regarding the system of measures involving order, sequence, deadlines and means of their implementation.
Program -this decision regarding the combination of measures necessary for the solution of scientific and technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or their aspects.
Project - This decision regarding a specific event necessary to implement this or that aspect of the program.
Prognostic - Scientific discipline on patterns of forecasts.
Receiving forecasting - This is one or more logical or mathematical operations aimed at obtaining a prediction of a particular object under certain conditions.
Forecasting Procedure -a number of techniques that ensure the implementation of a certain set of operations.
Forecasting method - The method of studying the forecast object aimed at developing forecasts.
Forecasting methodology - The combination of original rules for using forecasting techniques in developing a specific forecast.
Prediction methodology - Region knowledge of methods, methods and prediction systems.
Forecasting method - Obtaining and processing information about the future based on homogeneous methods for developing a forecast.
Forecasting system - An ordered set of techniques, technical means designed to predict complex phenomena or processes.
Predictive system - The combination of methods for forecasting and means of their implementation, which is functioning in accordance with the basic principles of forecasting and ensuring a specific prediction.
Search Forecast - The forecast establishes the possible states of the forecast object in the future.
Regulatory forecast - The forecast establishing ways and timing of the achievement of certain states of the forecasting object.
Task for the forecast - A document defining the goals and objectives of the forecast and regulating the procedure for its development.
Prediction Stage - Part of the projection development process, characterized by its tasks, methods and results.
Forecast retrospection - The forecasting step, which examines the history of the forecasting object and the forecast background with the aim of their systematic description.
Forecast diagnosis - The forecasting step, which examines the history of the forecasting and forecast background in order to identify problems, the trends of their development and the choice of models and forecasting methods.
Prospection - The forecasting step on which, using the selected models and forecasting methods, the forecasts of the forecast object and the forecast background are developed, it is verified.
Forecast model - The forecasting object model, research and use of which allows you to obtain information about the possible states of the object in the future and paths and the timing of their implementation.
Diagnostic model - The model of the forecasting object, the study and use of which allows you to obtain information about the causes of problems.
Forecast experiment - Implementation of the forecast at the forecast object or its model.
Forecast option - One of the possible forecasts.
Verification of forecast - Evaluation of the functional completeness, accuracy and reliability of the forecast.
Propriety prediction period - The time interval on which the forecast is developed.
The base period of the forecast - The time of time, on the basis of which retrospection is built.
Forecast horizon- Maximum possible period Protections in which its accuracy and accuracy are still ensured.
Characteristics of the forecast object- Qualitative or quantitative reflection of any properties of the object.
Meaning variable object forecasting- A variable of the forecast object received to describe an object according to the task of the forecast.
Endogenous variable object of forecasting- meaning variable object of forecasting, which mainly reflects its own properties.
Exogenous variable object of forecasting- meaning variable of the forecast object, reflecting mainly the properties of the forecast background.
Dynamic- Temporary sequence of retrospective values \u200b\u200bof the prediction object variable.
Trend.- Analytical or graphical representation of a change in the variable in time, obtained as a result of the allocation of a regular component of a dynamic series.
As relatively independent planning forms, strategic, business planning, promising, current, operational and calendar planning are promoted.
Strategic planning is the organizational strategic foreclosure, internal coordination, the allocation of resources between several areas of activity of the enterprise of commerce in order to adapt to the external environment. It is carried out after the forecast of possible states of the environment, determining the goals of the activities of the commerce sphere, the choice of several market segments.
The main tasks of strategic planning:
1. Distribution of resources between the following directions: development and promising, current and operational activities;
2. The choice of directions of development;
3. Distribution of resources between different directions of development;
4. Distribution of resources between promising, current and operational calendar control.
Business planning is different from the strategic fact that the decision is made to implement on one of the segments of the particular market program of one product or service. The execution period in such a planning may be equal to the amount of estimates of the timing of the development cycle, market cycle and life cycle.
Perspective planning - planning for the premium period, the close duration of one separately taken from the cycles of the product, namely the cycles of development, market or life cycles, and having an enterprise as a whole planning, acting on one market segment.
Current planning is planning within one of the stages of the life cycle or the activity of one of the production or enterprise divisions.
Operational calendar is a planning with a period of protection, not exceeding the duration of one of the phases of one stage of the life cycle, which considers the element of the organizational and industrial system as an object of planning.
Thus, by defining the main categories of prediction and planning, it seems possible as the main differences in planning forecasting to name the following:
1. Forecasting is carried out under conditions with a large share of uncertainty or chance;
2. The object of forecasting is most often a combination of the scope of services and an external environment;
3. Prediction B. more than Focusing on the study of the development of the external environment, considers the enterprise or its element as some integrity, is systemic;
4. Prediction allows you to determine the possible states of the external environment, the list and probabilities of achieving possible purposes, the list of paths and the corresponding probability of achieving each of the goals.
5. When predicting due to a large period of protection and uncertainty, more general interdisciplinary settlement or expert standards are used;
6. Prediction is more information, advisory nature, the decision-making is optional.
Types of forecasts are allocated for various criteria, depending on the objectives, tasks, objects, objects, problems, character, the period of the probe, methods, and the like.
The fundamental is a problem-target criterion: what is the forecast for? According to this criterion, two types of forecast are distinguished : Search (research, trend, genetic) and regulatory (software, target).
Search (Research) forecast - This is predicting from the present to the future. The content of the search prediction is to determine the possible states of the forecast object in the future, without human intervention. Such a forecast answers the question: which is likely to happen if the existing management impact is maintained.
The search prognosis relies on information on the trends in the development of the object of prediction, the relationships between indicators and factors obtained as a result of retrospective analysis.
Since this approach is based on analytical studies, it is also called scientific, I. research, I. descriptive (descriptive). Genetic This forecast is called because it involves the development of an object of forecasting in accordance with its "genetics" - the potential incorporated in the object itself.
Search prediction is divided into two types:
1) traditional or extrapolyative;
2) innovative or alternative.
Traditionalthe method assumes that the development of the object occurs and will be in accordance with the existing trend. In this case, the forecast may be a simple projection (extrapolation) of the past into the future. If this forecast is not based on the analysis of the impact on the development of various factors (on a multifactorical analysis), and takes into account the dependence of the indicators only on time (builds the trends of the indicators), then such a forecast is called "naive". Mainly it is used to predict macroeconomic indicators (GNP, CNP, ND, inflation, employment) in stable economic systems.
For example, to describe the future, regression equations obtained on the basis of information on the development of the object in the past (retrospective analysis) are applied without changing the factors efficiency coefficients (regression coefficients). If the intersectoral balance is used, the technological coefficients remain unchanged.
Innovative approach It comes from the fact that the development of the object happens is jumping and intermittently intermittent that new factors may affect the object of forecasting. Such an approach Some authors are called alternative, since it assumes that there are many options for the future development of the facility.
Regulatory forecast - This is predicting from the future to this. The content of the regulatory forecast is to determine the paths and timing of achieving the possible states of the forecast object in the future, taken as a target.
Regulatory forecasting in some respects is very similar to regulatory planning, programming and design. But the latter imply the directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while regulatory forecasting is a probabilistic description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.
Sometimes regulatory forecasting is called target, normative target, software.
With regulatory forecasting, the desired end state of the object development is established, then the measures that can provide this condition, the necessary financial, material and labor resources. The targets are often based on standards, for example, achieve the specified levels of security and quality of life of the population, per capita income, average wages. Payment required resources In the absence of retrospective information on progressive norms, their use can also be performed according to the predicted (desired) regulations.
For example, various search prediction options give a decrease in unemployment over ten years from 10 to 7%. Forexists using the methods of regulatory forecasting, set a goal (standard) - reducing the level of unemployment to 5%. Calculations show that this requires creating a certain number of jobs in public and private sectors, more active development of small businesses, services, etc.
Based on the search and regulatory forecasting, a comprehensive forecast may be built.
The magnitude of the confidence interval is distinguished interval and dot forecasts.
Interval forecast - a forecast, the result of which is represented as a confidential interval of the characteristics of the forecasting object for a given probability of the forecast.
Point forecast - a forecast, the result of which is presented as the only value of the characteristics of the forecasting object without specifying the confidence interval.
Under the probe period - the time interval to which the forecast is calculated - the operational (current), Short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term forecasts.
In socio-economic forecasting adopted the following classification:
- Operational forecast - Forecast with a period of protection up to 1 month.
- short-term forecast - Forecast with a period of protection from 1 month to 1 year.
- Medium-term forecast - forecast with a period of protection from 1 year to 5 years.
- Long-term forecast - Forecast with a period of protection from 5 to 15 years.
- Dal alkaline forecast - forecast with a period of progress over 15 years.
Operational The forecast is usually designed for the future, during which significant changes in the forecasting object are not expected - neither quantitative or qualitative. Short - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly high-quality .
Medium-term The forecast covers the perspective between short and long-term with the predominance of quantitative changes over quality, dal alkalo - perspective when such significant qualitative changes are expected that essentially we can only talk about the most common prospects for the development of nature and society.
Operational forecasts include, as a rule, detailed quantitative assessments, short-term - common quantitative, medium-term - quantitative and high-quality, long-term - qualitative and quantitative and distance - general qualitative assessments.
Disassembled forecasts By forecasting object.The most significant in the methodological terms differences between natural scientific and technical (in a narrow sense) and social(In the broad sense of the word) forecasts.
The main difference between them is that the objects of natural science and technical forecasts are developing under the laws independent of the will and actions of a person, and the objects of social forecasts are created and changed during human activity.
Social and natural scientific and technical forecasts (in a narrow sense) differ significantly in the ratio of predictive and disappointing aspects. Social forecasts themselves program the behavior of the object, i.e. Possess printed force.
When predicting objects in natural or technical sciences - for example, when the weather forecast or the prediction of the material resistance is a programming (predatory) forecast force close to zero. In most cases, the forecast and the decision taken on the basis cannot change the behavior of the forecasting facility (for example, the behavior of heavenly luminaries).
In social forecasts, the predictional force of the forecast is very large. The fact is that the object of the forecast here are people endowed with consciousness and will. The knowledge of the forecast itself can change the behavior of these people - and, it means that the object of the forecast. As a result, the "self-destruction" or "self-effectiveness" of the forecast occurs. The effect of changes in the behavior of the forecast object under the influence of knowledge of the forecast information is called the "EDIP effect"
In turn natural scientificforecasts are distinguished on:
- on the meteorological (forecasting objects - weather, air flow and other atmospheric phenomena);
- hydrological (Objects of forecasting - marine unrest, water drain mode, floods, tsunami, storms, freezing and opening of the water area, other hydrospheric phenomena);
- geological (Objects of forecasting - deposits of minerals, earthquakes, disruption of avalanche and other lithospheric phenomena);
- biological, including phenologic and agricultural (forecasting objects - yield, morbidity and other phenomena in the plant and animal world, in general in the biosphere);
- medicobiological (forecasting objects - predominantly human disease);
- cosmological (Objects of forecasting - the state and movement of celestial bodies, gases, radiation, all phenomena of the space fleece);
- physicochimical Forecasts (objects of forecasting - microworous phenomena).
Objects of scientific technical forecasts in a narrow sense (or engineering), The states of materials and the mode of operation of the mechanisms, machines, instruments, electronic equipment, all phenomena of the technosphere. The prepaying force of such forecasts is also small, in this sense they are close to natural science forecasts.
However, scientific and technical forecasting in a broad sense - As forecasting the prospects for the development of scientific technological progress, the development of science and technology as social institutions - refers to social forecasts.
Its objects are the problems of the development of science, its structure, social aspects of functioning, the comparative effectiveness of various research areas, the development of scientific personnel and institutions, as well as promising problems of technology ("Man - Machine" system), more precisely, managed aspects of scientific technical progress in industry, construction, urban and agriculture, in transport and communications. Obviously, the forecast of these objects will have the property of self-effectiveness or self-destruction, i.e. When predicting them will be manifested by the EDIP effect.
Sometimes social forecasts are called social scientific or socio-economic. In the latter case, all forecasts besides economic are referred to as social. We will use to designate forecasts whose objects are human activity or its results (its managed aspects) social forecasts in the broad sense of the word.
To the social (in the broad sense of the word), forecasts can be attributed:
- economic (Objects of forecasting - economic system and its separate elements, the state of production forces and production relations, etc.);
- demographic (Objects forecasting -, lifespan, migration processes, fertility, etc.);
- scientific and technical (objects of forecasting - fundamental and applied sciences as social institutions, research and development and design developments and prospects for their implementation in production);
- natural resources (objects of forecasting - the presence of fuel, mineral raw materials, and the results of their involvement in the economic turnover);
- social (In a narrow sense) - objects of predicting the industry of social and social and labor areas: consumption by population of food, non-food products, employment, the development of the labor market, culture, education, health care, etc.).
Despite the noted distinction between the forecasts of natural and social phenomena, it is determined conditionally. A person who possesses new knowledge, learns to manage the development of natural objects, therefore, the forecasts for the development of these objects may stimulate activities to change their condition in the desired direction (within the framework of existing capabilities), i.e. In forecasting, the effect of self-effectiveness or self-destruction is manifested.
It should be noted - they write, for example, I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada and G.A. The governor - that there is no deaf wall between natural science and social science forecasts, since the theoretically the relationship between the prediction and prediction is never equal to zero. The person begins to influence the weather (dispersion of fogs, graft clouds), on yield (fertilizer production), etc.
It is likely that over time he will learn to manage the weather, regulate sea unrest, prevent earthquakes, to receive precisely certain crops, program the physiological and psychological development of a person, to change the orbits of the celestial bodies, etc. Then the difference between the specified types of forecasts will gradually disappear.
Allocate forecasts I. on scaleobject of forecasting:
- people's economic;
- interregional;
- intersectoral forecast of the development of national economic complexes;
- regional;
- sectoral;
- forecast of the development of a separate economic entity;
- forecast of production or type of products.
So, the typology of forecasts can be built on various criteria, depending on the objectives, objectives, objects, objects, problems, character, period of protection, methods, etc. Select search and regulatory, operational, short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term forecasts. In the magnitude of the confidence interval, interval and point forecasts differ.
The object of forecasting differ naturally scientific and technical and social forecasts. There is a typology based on the criteria for the scale of the forecasting object.
! Task 2. What is the difference between the search and regulatory forecast? What basis is this distinction?
! Task 3. Give the definition and give an example of the "EDIP effect" effect.
Main types of plans
Types of plans also allocate depending on one or another:
By degree of coverage or by level You can distinguish social Planning (planning the development of society as a whole) and planning in the enterprise.
Social planning is defined as a form of regulation of social processes in society related to the vital activity of the population. The main task of social planning is the optimization of the processes of economic and social Development, increasing socio-economic efficiency.
On the same basis social Planning varies like:
- Social planning at the nationwide level
- Social planning at the regional level.
- Social planning locally
In turn, social planning at the state level (nationwide and regional) shares planning principles on the directive and indicative.
Policy planning implies the establishment of targeted targets and the distribution of resources necessary for their implementation among performers and is characterized by the following principles:
Management of the People's Complex Complex from the Unified Center;
Dominance of planning over other control functions;
Hard state control for the production and economic activities of business entities;
The policy of planned solutions, etc.
Policy planning implies the following conditions:
Forecast indicators and trends
Conceptual algorithms for the transformation of structural proportions.
The key sections of the plan relate to economic growth, investments, financial flows, balance of economy, inflation and competition. In most cases, strategic tasks are expressed in specific (quantitatively defined) planned tasks, but the latter are minor.
Indicators are used as indicators characterizing the dynamics, structure and efficiency of the economy, the state of finance, cash circulation, market valuable papers, price movement, employment and quality of life of the population, foreign economic bonds, etc.
The plan is used as a basic management tool, while the set of plans implementations are changed. This type of planning involves the use of direct and indirect economic regulators (prices, income, taxes, interest rates, loans, etc.), orienting market entities for the fulfillment of the goals.
The planned documents contain only the general contours of the forecast regarding the desired development of the economy as a whole, and also fix decisions on state expenses and investments, about current expenditures of state-owned enterprises. The direct task of the plan here is the coordination of the use of public resources that do not claim to directly determine the decisions of economic entities of the private sector.
The principles of the formation of an indicative plan are:
Participation on the equal basis of representatives of various "group interests": civil servants, entrepreneurs, trade unions, consumer unions, etc.;
Formation as a result of multistage iterations, in the process of dialogue and coordination;
Attracting experts to jointly identify problems in various fields and, if possible, to propose specific solutions.
Social Planning locally Provides: attracting the public to identifying needs and problems, as well as ways to solve them, in many cases - and to fulfill the activities.
It also includes:
Evaluation of the needs of the population of the municipality;
Evaluation of resources and opportunities for local bodies in general, social services and organizations;
Development of plans that meet the key principles for organizing the provision of services in a territorial unit and which are supported by the local authorities themselves;
Social Contracting (Social Agreement) aimed at attracting public and private organizations to the provision of services for budget funds (in many cases), the client's right to choose a social service.
All stages of social planning work are coordinated by local authorities, which also implement their functions. For example, non-state organizations are attracted to social planning, implementing the interaction with public associations.
Enterprise planning is also divided by scale or scope for:
- Generalencompassing the entire scope of the enterprise.
- Privatecovering certain areas of enterprise activities.
- strategic;
- tactical;
- operational calendar planning.
Strategic planning is usually focused on the long-term perspective and determines the main directions of development of the economic entity. Through strategic planning, decisions are made on, for example, how to expand business activities, create new business areas, stimulate the process of meeting the needs of consumers, what efforts should be taken to meet market demand, in which markets it is better to operate what products to produce or what services to provide , with what partners do business, etc.
The main goal of strategic planning is to create a potential for the survival of the enterprise in the conditions of a dynamically changing external and internal environment generating perspective uncertainty.
In the conditions of the planned economy, when the external environment in which the enterprise was functioning, did not differ in dynamism, the strategic planning did not receive due development in neither the theory of management or in practice. And only now the first steps are made in the development of a strategic planning mechanism.
Tactical planning, as a rule, covers short-term and medium-term periods, and strategic planning is effective in long-term and medium term. As for objects and items of tactical planning, they can be the most diverse.
One rule should be remembered here: the only way to make the process of tactical planning controlled is to plan only the main types of products and costs, the most important functions. However, with different structure of the plans, dependence must be observed: "Costs - Production - Profit - price." Otherwise, it becomes inappropriate tactical planning.
Operational calendar planning is the final stage in planning economic activity firms. The main task of operational calendar planning is to specify the tactical plan indicators in order to organize the daily systematic and rhythmic work of the enterprise and its structural divisions.
In the process of operational and calendar planning, the following planned functions are performed:
First, it is determined by the time of the implementation of individual operations for the manufacture of parts for assembly units of products and products as a whole by establishing conjugate terms of transmission of labor objects by the providers to their consumers.
Secondly, the operational preparation of production is carried out by ordering and delivery to the workplaces of materials, billets, tools, devices and other equipment necessary for the implementation of the production plan.
Thirdly, systematic accounting, control, analysis and regulation of the production process, preventing or eliminating its deviations from the planned schedule.
Ultimately, operational calendar planning allows you to:
Reduce breaks in the movement of labor items in certain stages of production;
Ensure the uniformity and complexity of equipment loading and areas;
Clearly react to any deviations arising during the production process, and thereby create prerequisites for the rhythmic and efficient work of the enterprise and its units.
Operational and calendar planning links all elements of the enterprise into a single production body, including technical training production, logistics, production, creation and maintenance of the necessary reserves of material resources, sales of products, etc.
It is customary to allocate typical system of operational and calendar planning: forcible, pound-mounted, suitable. Accordingly, typical steps of operational planning are allocated.
Depending on the period for which the plan is, and the degrees of detailing planned calculations are considered to distinguish:
- long-term (promising),
- Medium-term
- Short-term (current) planning.
Perspective planning covers a period of more than 5 years, for example, 10, 15 and 20 years. Such plans are designed to determine the long-term strategy of the enterprise, including social, economic, scientific and technological development.
Medium-term planning is carried out for a period of 1 to 5 years. In some enterprises, medium-term planning is combined with the current. In this case, the so-called sliding five-year plan is drawn up, in which the first year is detailed to the level of the current plan and is essentially a short-term plan.
Current planning covers a period of up to 1 year, including a half-year, quarterly, monthly, weekly (decada) and daily planning.
On the subject of planning shares:
- target (definition of goals).
- Planning of funds (material resources, labor resources, finance).
- software (planning of manufacturing and sales programs).
- Planning actions (special sales, multi-level marketing).
Depending on the spheres of functioning (or maintenance of economic activity):
- Planning production.
- Sales planning.
- Personal planning.
- Extended overall planning.
- Social planning.
- Financial planning.
- planning to promote goods and services.
- Planning the wage fund.
- organizational planning.
For example, social planning in enterprises has its own content of the planning of social development of labor collectives and constitutes the third level of social planning. Different kinds Production teams are suggested when planning their development various techniques.
Depending on the direction and nature of the tasks, three types of planning are distinguished:
- Regular (systematic), including strategic (promising), medium and tactical (current, budget);
- Target comprehensive programs.
- Business planning for individual projects.
At depth of planning distinguish:
- aggregated planning, limited to the specified contours, for example, planning the workshop as the amount of production sites;
- detailed planning, for example, with detailed calculation and a description of the planned process or object;
By coordination of private plans in time:
- sequential planning in which the process of developing different plans is one long consistent consistently implemented process consisting of several stages;
- simultaneous planning in which the parameters of all plans are determined simultaneously in one single planning act;
If possible change data:
- stiff planning;
- flexible planning;
In time in time:
- ordered (current) planning, in which, at the end of one plan, another plan is being developed (plans alternate sequentially one by one);
- moving planning, in which after a certain planned timeline, the plan is extended for the next period;
- Extraordinary (Eventual) Planning, in which planning is carried out as necessary, for example, during the reconstruction or resentment of the enterprise
Concepts are also used contractual and entrepreneurial planning. Contract planningregulates the interactions of market entities, which are built on a voluntary and mutually beneficial basis between enterprises, associations, banks, authorities and management.
The contractual relations form sustainable production and economic ties, mutual obligations, the conditions for their implementation and create a guaranteeing economic mechanism for maintaining compositeness in market conditions. Contractual plans are implemented in the form of agreements, supply contracts, participation systems and other forms. For the provision of contractual planning, relevant economic and legal prerequisites are served: legislative norms, independent judicial system, etc.
Thus, the relationship arising in the process of searching, exploration, mining of mineral raw materials, distribution of products manufactured, its transportation, processing, storage, implementation is regulated by the product sharing agreement. The parties to the agreement are the Russian Federation, on behalf of it, the Government of the Russian Federation and the executive authority of the subject of the Russian Federation speak, in the territory of which the subsoil presented for use is located, and investors - citizens and legal entities, including foreign.
Entrepreneurial planning- this is the function of enterprises, firms, all subjects of production and economic and financial activitiesaimed at justifying and choosing ways of effective development. The basis for its intrafyrna plans of various urgency, designed to solve operational, current and strategic tasks.
So, the types of plans are allocated depending on the degree of coverage or level, on the principles, content and objects of planning, the scope of operation, the timing of the implementation of plans, the direction and nature of the tasks of the tasks, etc. The most significant for today's managerial situation is the distinguisure of the policy and indicative social planning.
! Task 4. Give examples of plans differing in the field of functioning.
Control questions and tasks:
1. What is the difference between the scientific and unscientific foresight?
2. What is the difference and what is common between the concepts program, project, plan?
3. Show the differences between the forecast and the plan.
4. What concepts characterize the forecasting object.
5. Give examples of the regulatory forecast.
6. Give examples of forecast models.
7. What forecasts relate to the Social Group in a broad sense?
8. What type of forecasts (social or natural scientific) includes a scientific and technical forecast?
9. Highlight the types of plans differing from the degree of coverage or by level.
10. Show the difference between the policy and indicative planning.
5_36349_fantazii-i-effekt-edipa.html
