The quantitative indicators of Strategy 2025 do not actually differ from the plans for 2020. There is a feeling that Gazprom Neft has simply postponed the deadline for achieving strategic goals by five years ...
Of course, no one has delayed the deadline for achieving the target indicators of the "Strategy 2020": it is expected to reach these figures in 2020. But at the same time, we look at things realistically and understand that at least for several years we will have a rather difficult task to maintain this level.
If we talk about refining, then while maintaining the total volume, we will sharply increase the share of light oil products. However, this will be done at approximately the same time by all domestic oil companies. Thus, by 2020, Russia will have one of the most re-equipped processing industries in the world, operating at the same time, most likely, in a not too developing, if not stagnant domestic market... On which, accordingly, it will be difficult to maintain market share and processing volume. The global processing market is now also very, very competitive, so there is no need to grow strongly there, although we are going to occupy serious positions in certain niches abroad.
If we talk about production, then by 2020 we will be implementing several large projects. But by that time, a rather sharp drop in production at our traditional assets is expected, and after 2020 we will pass a plateau at those new assets that we are now putting into development. So keeping production at the achieved level is not resting on our laurels, but serious hard work, and in order to complete it, we need to develop new reserves at a faster pace than before 2020. Everything is like in "Alice Through the Looking Glass": you need to run as fast just to stay in place, and to get somewhere, you need to run at least twice as fast!
- What will make up 100 million tons of production in the period from 2020 to 2025?
Part of the volume is the implementation of the full development scheme for the current generation of large projects. The second very important component is what we call a technological wedge: production of hard-to-recover reserves, work with low-permeability formations - the Bazhenov, Abalak, Tyumen formations, involvement in the development of previously unrecoverable reserves in existing areas, increasing the oil recovery factor using high-tech production methods. The third part is search, exploration and acquisition. The zones we are going to go to have already been identified, but while we do not yet know what exactly these projects will be, they have yet to be found.
- So the risks are objectively high?
Not risks, but uncertainties. Our industry is like this - we work with uncertainties all the time. The ability to deal with uncertainties, whether it be market fluctuations in the price of oil or geology, is generally one of the key competencies of oil companies.
But any strategy is based on forecasts, first of all - changes in external conditions throughout the entire planning period. Here, what is the range of uncertainties?
We didn't make predictions. Still, the development of the world economy, dictating prices, the volume of demand, its geographical distribution are things that are difficult to predict with certainty. We built four global macroeconomic scenarios, quite different from each other, and considered what the portfolio of existing and proposed projects of the company would look like in each of them, assessed the margin of safety for unfavorable outcomes and the readiness to take advantage of a favorable turn of events. First of all, we understood in detail what and how the balance of supply and demand may depend.
The level of demand is tied to the rate of economic growth in certain countries. For example, we assessed whether the countries of Southeast Asia or South America are capable of becoming a consumer society based on their own needs, or whether they will continue to serve the countries of the north. This sets a certain range of demand from countries with stabilized or even decreasing demand and consumption growth in new centers of demand, and so on. The role of new technologies is extremely important from the point of view of changing demand. If the world is rich enough, it can afford to spend money on ultra-efficient engines, new sources of energy. If the world is poor, this does not happen. In this aspect, the key is where the enrichment is taking place at a faster pace. If the old economies grow richer, apparently, the technological phase transition will proceed sooner, and the role in this will be played not only by technical and infrastructural readiness, but also by political, ideological considerations, these countries will be able to afford to realize their ecological ideals, and the commercialized mass production of developments will soon become available to the whole world and begin to be implemented everywhere. When it comes to advancing economic development now relatively poor countries with an income of $ 3-5 thousand per person and primary motorization - most likely, there will be massive demand for simple solutions, simple engines, which means that the demand trajectory will be different.
Similarly, we assessed the options for changing the supply, where uncertainties are associated with technological breakthroughs - whether this will be an exit to the ultra-deep-water or Arctic shelf, to what extent they are being realized or, on the contrary, will disappoint the prospects for new categories of reserves, and so on.
If you calculate all the existing combinations, you can get myriads of points, so it is more logical to develop several scenarios, quite different and quite plausible, that set some basis for the analysis space.
- You did not mention the impact of oil prices ...
Prices by themselves, apart from other parameters, are not so important, but we counted in the range of $ 60-120 per barrel. The baseline scenario is around $ 90-95 per barrel.
The production strategy pays great attention to working with unconventional reserves, such as the Bazhenov formation - to a certain extent analogous to shale oil, which has already seriously changed the position of the United States on the oil map of the world. Do we also rely on them as a strategic reserve?
We do not consider shale oil a phantom, it is quite a real thing, to a certain extent it is a refutation of the Hubbert peak theory * and another proof that, in general, there is still quite a lot of oil. But we do not believe that shale oil production will completely change the world and that working with this category of reserves will completely overturn what we are doing today. Mainly because it is still quite expensive technology. Which, however, opens up many prospects for our company, so we are in the forefront of its development, at least faster than European and Asian companies are approaching this class of reserves in Western Siberia. We will see how successful this movement will be in the next two or three years. In case of a positive result, Gazpromneft should be among those who make this technology a reality.
- How do you plan to gain 10 million tons of foreign production?
Great hopes are pinned on Iraq in general and on Kurdistan in particular. If all existing projects in the Middle East and Venezuela are implemented in the form in which it is planned, we will already reach the strategic 10 million tons. But this does not take into account the possible risks, so we definitely need to look for some additional options.
The plans for foreign processing are quite ambitious, but so far there are assets only in Serbia and Belarus. What are the main search directions?
In part, the pace of our overseas development is due to the monetary factor. We are already investing heavily in large-scale projects for the reconstruction and modernization of processing, development of the production base, but at the same time we take a responsible and balanced approach to the issue of borrowing. In addition - and this is perhaps the main thing - the capacity of our refining assets should be commensurate with our production capacities, therefore, it is necessary to increase foreign capacities in proportion to the growth rates in production. It may make sense to build some objects for the future - in those regions where a significant increase in demand is expected. It is clear that it is pointless to build in Europe with its oversupply of capacities, but in Asia the growth is obvious. But in Europe there are factories that have enough synergy with our oil pipelines, with our business - they are the objects of our interest.
- But we have only 10 million tons of foreign production in 2020-2025 ...
Foreign refining may well run on Russian oil. Part of the oil that we plan to export, we want to process at facilities to which we will have access. In addition, it does not have to physically be exactly our oil - some kind of swaps are possible. Although, of course, it should be about the same market - for example, the eastern part of the Pacific region.
Where do we plan to move in the sales segment, again taking into account that in the period from 2020 to 2025 there are no plans to increase refining volumes?
But at the same time, it is planned to increase the volume of fuel sales. After all, every reconstruction of an oil refinery means that we make more light oil products from the same amount of processed oil. The same applies to the distribution network: it is possible that the number of filling stations in our country will not increase as fast as until now, but their efficiency should grow quite strongly. We can modernize or build fundamentally new stations at existing sites, drastically change the flow rate, thus increasing sales. There are certain mechanisms that are of interest to us - first of all, the connection of our network into a single territorial whole, ensuring a presence on all federal highways, even in those regions where there are no stations of their own, for example, through a franchise mechanism.
We may slow down slightly compared to the period of rapid growth in recent years, but the goal of maintaining the pace of growth in sales remains. The main strategic objective of our sales business units is to place virtually the entire volume of the company's oil products on the market while ensuring high channel margins and return capital.
Sergey Vladimirovich, Gazprom Neft recently approved a program for innovative development until 2020. How was this document created?
The document is, in a sense, the "heir" of chapters on innovations in the oil business, which are part of Gazprom's innovative development program. Traditionally, Gazprom Neft pays great attention to technologies, and the company has always had a corresponding program, although until a certain point it was not formalized into a strategy. For example, one of the priority areas of the company's innovative development in the exploration and production segment is the efficient development of hard-to-recover reserves (TRIZ). This is a widely discussed topic in the industry, but in order to now be able to talk about some results, we started working on solving these problems two or three years ago. A similar situation develops in the block of oil refining.
What measures for the modernization of factories are provided for by the program?
If we talk about the refinery, then the entire modernization program includes two major waves of reconstruction. The first is the implementation of a quality program, within the framework of which fuel upgrading units were built. This allows us to transfer all factories to the production of class 5 fuel by the middle of this year. The second stage of modernization, which is precisely reflected in the strategy of innovative development, is to increase the depth of oil refining. Until 2020, reconstruction of a deep oil refining unit in Omsk and a catalytic cracking unit in Moscow will take place. In addition, coking units will be built at both plants, as well as hydrocracking units at the Omsk, Moscow and Yaroslavl refineries. As a result, the design depth of processing at our plants will exceed 94%, and the yield of light products will exceed 77%.
Does the program provide for the use of Russian technologies?
Yes, they are being developed jointly with the Institute of Petrochemical Synthesis of the Russian Academy of Sciences (TIPS) and the Institute for Problems of Hydrocarbon Processing of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Together with INKhS, a technology has been created for the environmentally friendly production of a high-octane gasoline component, which allows us to work in the immediate vicinity of the city, which is especially important for the Moscow plant. Together with the same institute, we are developing unique technologies for processing heavy oil residues and hydroconversion of tar. Although the final assessment of the feasibility of their commercialization is planned for 2016, we already have enough confidence in the success of this technology. In addition, the only production facility in Russia for the production of catalysts operates in Omsk, and one of the directions of our activity is the development of production of Russian catalysts with properties superior to their foreign counterparts. To this end, we cooperate with the Institute of Catalysis and the Institute for Problems of Hydrocarbon Processing of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The division of labor and cooperation means that scientific institutions perfectly develop the principles of new technologies and processes, and we bring them to industrial applications, scaling from a test tube to a factory installation.
Soap effect
What about the production segment?
Important areas are enhanced oil recovery and work with hard-to-recover reserves. To accomplish these tasks, the company actively uses horizontal drilling and multiple hydraulic fracturing (HF). Moreover, we first started using the multistage hydraulic fracturing technology, which is effective for working with TRIZ, only at the end of 2011, and already in 2013 we plan to carry out more than 120 such hydraulic fracturing. This example shows well the dynamics of the introduction of efficient technologies by the company. While studying the technologies on the market, we have to interact to a large extent with global contractors; however, Russian specialists work under their flag in Russia. At the same time, we use the "Electronic Field" technology, developed jointly with the Ufa Scientific and Technical Center.
Is it a Russian development or an adaptation of a Western software product?
Some adaptation is present, but this is not only a software product. It is about approaches, an accurate understanding of what is happening in the field, the ability to promptly control the rate of injection, turn on wells in the non-stationary waterflooding mode. For this, algorithms are used that are developed, among other things, by Russian IT contractors - the Ufa Scientific and Technical Center and ITSK. There is a fair amount of technology in the world now. And there is such a thing - "the curse of the pioneer." A pioneer, stepping on every possible rake, spends a lot of resources on the creation and commercialization of technologies. Those who follow him are able to repeat his success in a shorter time and with less effort and cost. We now have a lot of technologies that have already been commercialized, and we do not need to waste time, money, stuffing big shots, being engaged in their implementation. You just need to effectively select and adapt what is needed. So our main task is to this moment- to maintain and develop the ability to quickly assess what is happening on the market, and introduce the best of what is offered in your production.
What work is envisaged to enhance oil recovery?
An example of the use of technology for enhanced oil recovery is the polymer-alkali flooding method, which Shell offers us to use. The technology is already being actively used in Canada, China, pilot works are being carried out in Oman. To put it on the fingers, the low oil recovery factor (ORF) is due, among other things, to the fact that oil sticks to the rock and remains in the formation. Main idea new technology- to pump not water into the well, but a certain cocktail of chemical compositions to increase the oil recovery factor. The alkali in the cocktail prepares the rock and, interacting with the oil, enhances the effect of the additionally injected surfactant, which strips the oil off.
That is, the effect of a soap is obtained?
Yes, that's right. First soda, then soap - an emulsion is formed, a suspension of oil droplets in water, like oil in a frying pan with the addition of detergent. If you then displace the emulsion with just water, then it will flow around the formed oil droplets, and if you add a thickening component, it will push the droplets out like a piston. Then ordinary water is injected, which pushes the formed "thrombus". This is called chemical flooding.
What chemicals are used?
Quite simple. In general, everything you need can be found even in the restaurant kitchen: soda, detergent and guar gum, although not exactly the same substances are used in production.
Surely questions will arise - is it harmful for groundwater.
This will not affect the quality of groundwater. The formulations are injected exactly into the reservoir in which there is already oil. Aon is by definition isolated, because otherwise oil would also fall into groundwater, and she is a much more dangerous pollutant. In addition, waterflooding occurs at depths of 2-3 km.
In which regions are you planning to use this technology?
Now we are considering the potential of its application in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Since it is offered by Shell, the pilot project will be at the Salym field, which is being developed by a joint venture between Shell and Gazprom Neft - Salym Petroleum Development. Additional volumes of oil, which we will receive through the use of this technology, will be able to significantly - by 10-15 years - increase the period of effective development of the Salym fields. We agreed that our specialists will be directly involved at all stages of work in order to understand how mixtures, components, solutions and so on are selected. If the technology is successfully applied, we expect to start using it in our own fields.
Will you have to upgrade your production facilities to apply the new technology?
It is possible that a decision will be made to drill several additional wells in order to more efficiently pump the “cocktail” into the formation. It will also be necessary to place blocks for mixing and injection of the mixture in the field. But some kind of special training is not required.
What is the target growth rate of oil recovery factor?
10-15%. At a lower rate, the use of new technology may not pay off.
You are implementing another project with Shell in Salym - to develop shale oil reserves.
Yes. In addition, in April we signed an agreement with them on the development of new projects in this area. There are quite a few areas where there are prospects for the development of light oil in low-permeability formations, which is often called shale oil, and attracting a reliable partner will allow us to double our work program. Everyone understands that the larger the area covered by research, the higher the likelihood of forming a portfolio of efficiently performing assets. It has long been known that a huge Bazheno-Abalakovskaya formation lies in the Russian subsoil, the hydrocarbon reserves of which amount to billions of tons. But it is not yet completely clear how much of this oil can be extracted. This remains to be understood, and technology will play a decisive role in this matter. For example, using wells with different controlled hydraulic fracturing architectures, we begin to get to those reserves that were previously considered not at all involved in development. The design of hydraulic fracturing in the Bazhenov formation sediments and in TRIZ in traditional formations is different, but these two adjacent technologies really greatly increase the Russian production base. I will not undertake to count across the country, but for ourselves we estimate their possible contribution at about 10-15% of our production on the horizon of 2020, which is 10-15 million tons. Moreover, this is still a rather conservative scenario.
Passing
Does the program reflect the topic of utilization of associated petroleum gas (APG)?
Of course. We work in two directions. The first is the utilization of APG to supply energy to our fields. Gas will make it possible to replace diesel fuel and fuel oil, which are currently used in generation for their own needs. The second is the development of GTL technology, that is, gas-to-liquid conversion. In principle, the GTL technology has been used for 85 years, but the problem is that the associated gas is unstable in composition, in addition, the traditional GTL plant produces sufficiently high molecular weight compounds that must be cracked to be converted into commercial products. Unfortunately, effective use of cracking units is possible only when using much larger volumes of raw materials than we have in the field. The solution to the problem would be to create a technological chain that would allow to obtain, as a result of the use of GTL technology, a product suitable for mixing with oil in a pipeline. This is a big challenge for catalyst chemistry, and we are discussing the possibility of tackling this problem at the Omsk refinery site in order to develop processes and installations suitable for placement in remote fields. In addition, we are considering the possibility of building petrochemical plants in Omsk, the feedstock for which, apparently, will be broad fractions of light hydrocarbons obtained from APG and condensate. But this is already a strategy for the development of the petrochemical direction of our business, which is still under development.
Are there any works on the introduction of alternative motor fuels?
We are working on the topic of NGV fuel together with Gazprom. Now we are discussing the possibility of organizing compressed gas filling at some of our filling stations. We will also explore the topic of bunkering ships with liquefied natural gas (LNG). We understand that after 2020, LNG will occupy a significant share of the maritime fuel market. And we strive to ensure that our specialized subsidiary - Gazpromneft Marine Bunker - gets a worthy place in this segment. We are confident that the experience we have gained in bunkering in different countries and the experience of our parent company in the LNG market will allow us to obtain a good synergistic effect for the development of this line of business.
Surely the innovative development program involves cooperation with universities.
We are actively working with universities and are trying to create a kind of technological cluster in St. Petersburg. We hold conferences in the city both on technologies for the production and use of fuels and lubricants, and on various aspects of increasing oil recovery factor, development of hard-to-recover reserves. In St. Petersburg last year, with the participation of Gazprom Neft, the North-West Branch of the Society of Petroleum Engineers was founded, and we are involving the Mining Institute in our projects. We continue to work with other basic universities, in particular, with Gubkin University. We understand that in order to provide our projects in the future with high-quality scientific support, it is necessary to prepare a "conveyor" of specialists today.
04/20/2019 Yukilevich Oleg Valerievich 50 years old
Igor, congratulations! Your dream has come true. Greetings from the distant 1989 Kirovakan from Oleg Yukilevich Rostov-on-Don!
04/08/2019 Paul Che
At one time, starting from a distant, distant childhood and up to entering the university, with some long breaks, I lived on The far north and therefore I have heard very well about such incidents since those distant times.
- Such outbursts have always happened there, accompanied by the most beautiful bursts of fire with color tints that will be remembered for a lifetime. Of course, only those who were lucky enough to witness this miracle.
In addition, your humble servant is the discoverer of the so-called "Clathrate Anabiosis", that is, he understands the clathrate topic.
- That is why, long before the discovery of a crater in Yamal in 2014, I was the FIRST who put forward the idea of a methane background for all such phenomena. About which I had heard a lot from direct eyewitnesses of the same tundra "shows" that were absolutely indescribable in beauty.
By the way, I was also the first of all researchers to explain the mysterious death of whole flocks of birds right in the air, the mass death of fish in reservoirs, and the incomprehensible throwing of marine mammals (whales, dolphins, etc.) on the shore, incomprehensible to anyone.
- And these natural tragedies are also associated with the release of various natural gases, including even hydrogen.
Look - "THE LATEST THREAT: ON THE EDGE OF THE ABOUT":
https://www.proza.ru/2013/01/20/1602
04/04/2019 Oleg Sergeevich Kadkalo 37
Guys, participants, well done! The SIBUR Championship is a cool event, it is definitely worth participating - it is a good career kick and a way to get acquainted with interesting people... Note that solving case tests is not an easy task. If you haven't solved them before, you need to prepare. I recommend the hrlider resource - take a look
04/04/2019 Sidorov Ivan Petrovich, 55
The Turks made the only right decision - to build a nuclear power plant with Russia. Nothing makes the country more "related" and obliges to more cooperation than the conclusion of such a long-term contract
04/03/2019 Klimov Alexander Petrovich 66 years old
The document mentions the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy, Fas and the oil workers, and where the people Or the real owner of natural resources have nothing to do with. The Duma and the government are far from the needs of the people and live their own lives, and the people are what you can make money on.
03/26/2019 Lyaschenko Arkady Evgenievich
As far as I understand, all 26 LNG tankers and 2 tankers for transportation of gas condensate are listed by name in the order of the Government. Of these, only 15 LNG carriers are of the Arc7 ice class. To service the second Arctic LNG-2 plant under construction, Novatek will need 15 more such gas carriers, which are planned to be built at the Zvezda shipyard. Placing orders with this Russian shipyard stipulates that these gas carriers will operate under the Russian flag. In addition, of the 26 gas carriers named at the disposal of the Government, only one belongs to a Russian shipping company, the rest are foreign. Of course, foreign seafarers work on foreign gas carriers.
Novatek's shareholders are foreign companies... In the end, what kind of development
Northern sea route Russia goes speech? LNG is exported entirely outside the Russian Federation by a private company with foreign shareholders, including exported by foreign LNG carriers with foreign crews, the construction of ships is carried out by foreign shipowners at foreign shipyards.
03/23/2019 Slobodina Natalia Alexandrovna
In 1979, I underwent pre-graduation practice at the Geophysical Enterprise in Nizhnevartovsk. And in 1980 she came with her husband to work on assignment in the city of Surgut. More
We have been working in the North for 30 years. With great joy I want to thank all the Oil Workers of the North for their courage, courage and dedication. Be healthy!
No matter what they say about alternative energy sources, the demand for Russian oil and gas will remain (by world standards, they are very cheap to produce). But they can cease to be sources of super profits and become an analogue of other industrial sectors, says Sergey Vakulenko, Head of the Strategic Planning Department of Gazprom Neft.
The publication has been prepared as part of
If we talk about the future of Russia in 20 years, it is impossible not to talk about energy. Oil and gas account for about 80% of Russian exports, about half of budget revenues and about a quarter of GNP. But it is worth adding to this, for example, the production of nitrogen fertilizers and other energy-intensive industries that actually export the same oil and gas, just in a slightly processed form with a relatively low added value.
In recent years, much has been said about the energy revolution, which could dramatically undermine both the position of Russian energy exports in the world and the country's income. As it happens in such cases, along with true information and reasonable interpretations, many myths fall into the news and analytical field.
There are several trends currently observed on the energy market, but there are four key ones:
- growth in hydrocarbon production from low-permeability rocks
- the emergence of a large amount of LNG on the world market
- rapid development of wind and solar energy, concern about climate change
- electrification of transport
This is not the first such episode in the history of the world energy market. In 1970-1980, offshore mining technology created two major competitors Middle Eastern oil - the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. At the same time, in the power industry, fuel oil for the furnace was replaced with natural gas, the modernization of vehicles took place, which sharply reduced the average fuel consumption, energy-saving technologies in production and construction were formed into a separate industry. On the one hand, these processes were a response to a sharp jump in oil prices in the early 1970s, which was caused first by the assertion of sovereignty over their resources by many oil-producing countries and the acquisition of market power (this allowed dictating the price), and then by political instability during many oil-producing countries and wars. That being said, the energy revolution turned out to be the fruit of technological progress on many other fronts. As a result, the price collapse occurred in 1986, when the oil industry outside the Persian Gulf was foretold with bleak prospects for many decades. History has shown that life is richer - indeed, super profits have left the industry, however, only to return 15 years later. But since then, demand has grown by one and a half times, and oil companies have left the top lines. Forbes rating only in the last 5 years, losing ground to the Internet giants.
The general pattern in energy consumption is as follows - since the 19th century, every year humanity has been using more fuel of each type than in the previous year. Coal could lose its role in favor of oil, and oil in favor of gas, but only in percentage, the increase in demand neutralized all inter-fuel competition.
Shale technology began to evolve about 20 years before becoming mainstream. Triple-digit oil prices have driven strong demand for the services of oilfield service companies, as well as the rapid growth of the US drilling and fracturing fleet. And now, thanks to this park, American companies are developing huge reserves of oil that were known for a long time, but were not considered commercially viable. As a result, the United States is sharply recovering its share of the oil market, reversing a long-term trend towards a decline in production. How far the growth of shale production in the United States can go is still an open question. Most analysts agree that it is possible to add another 2-3 million barrels per day, but then it will become quite difficult to maintain this level - shale wells are quickly depleted, therefore, more and more newly drilled wells will go to maintain, and not to increase the production level. At the same time, global demand has now come close to the level of 100 million barrels per day and only for Last year grew by 1.63 mbd with an expected growth rate of about the same in 2018.
Paradoxically, in this respect, the history of the development of the American and Russian oil industry is very similar - in our country, production fell from 1988 to 2001, almost halving. The forecasts of those years assumed that this recession would no longer be reversed. However, today Russia produces the same amount as at the peak of 30 years ago. The impressive growth in production over the past 7-8 years is associated with the large-scale introduction of wells with long horizontal wells (up to 1,500 meters) and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing (up to 25 stages). This is the American level from about 5 years ago. These technologies made it possible to bring into development those areas and horizons of fields in Western Siberia that could not be profitably developed using the old methods. I would like to note that Russia practically does not extract from shale deposits, because there are enough reserves in intermediate categories, and it makes no sense to go to shale until more easy-to-develop reserves have been developed. Russia now has the second largest fleet of heavy drilling rigs and a fleet of hydraulic fracturing units after the United States.
The second aspect of the energy revolution was the rapid development of the LNG market. For a long time, there was no market as such - there were tight links between the production project, the LNG plant and the terminal where this gas was supposed to be received. In fact, it was an analogue of a pipe, only a contract one. Both the LNG plant, the terminal, and the tankers were too expensive infrastructure to build speculatively, counting on spot sales and purchases - investors needed guarantees of payback. Over time, enough capacity has emerged in the LNG value chain for these concerns to begin to subside. A key event will be the emergence of large quantities of LNG from the United States on the market in 2019-2022. Up to 100 billion cubic meters of gas may enter the world market (the graph is in billion cubic feet per day, the conversion factor in billion cubic meters per year is 10.33), which is comparable to the volume of Russian exports to Europe.
The situation with this gas is such that large world gas companies actually paid for the construction of plants, signing contracts for mandatory payment for the use of capacities. Thus, the real price of gas liquefaction for them is now $ 0.5-1 per mmBTU, or $ 17-35 per thousand cubic meters, and another two dollars (70 per thousand cubic meters) are fixed costs that cannot but be incurred, sunk cost for the language of economists. In 2016, Europe imported 50 billion cubic meters of LNG converted to pipeline gas, and there are 160 billion of imported capacities.However, these capacities are unevenly distributed and concentrated mainly in the extreme west of the continent - pipelines from there to Germany and Central Europe, through which this gas can be would deliver, just not. And even taking into account the practically free liquefaction, American LNG turns out to be more expensive than Russian gas. The natural market for US LNG is Asia, with its growing demand and higher prices.
The appearance of LNG on the market changes the concept of the gas market, which has existed for a long time, as an uncontested system, when the decision to purchase from one supplier or another created a relationship of strong mutual dependence and risk. LNG cannot compete in price with Russian gas in Europe, but it creates an always available alternative to it. This drastically reduces Russia's ability to dictate gas prices. But on the other hand, it also gives a strong negotiating leverage - you can always say that the market is competitive, and Russia is by no means a monopoly supplier and does not determine the price monopoly. In the current tense political circumstances, this gives potential buyers a certain comfort - the decision to buy gas becomes economic, and not from the sphere of politics and security.
However, now the main attention is focused not on oil and gas, but on renewable energy. At first glance, progress in this industry can dramatically reduce, if not nullify, the demand for gas and coal in the energy sector, and with the transition of transport to electricity - and oil.
You can get acquainted with the continuation of the interview
Sergey Vakulenko
Graduated from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, where he received a master's degree in applied mathematics. Master of Laws and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (a joint program between Tufts and Harvard Universities).
From 1998 to 2007, he worked at Shell as an economist, business development manager, director of oil sales, representative of a shareholder in a joint venture and director of planning for the global exploration and production division on projects in Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Japan, in headquarters in London and The Hague.
From 2008 to 2011 - Head of Consulting Practice at IHS CERA in Russia.
Since 2011 - Head of the Strategic Planning Department of JSC Gazprom Neft.
