Batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles and self-driving vehicles - all these technologies today occupy only about 1% of the world market. If you want to capitalize on investments in the new economy, you should hurry up. In 10-15 years, these technologies will become widespread.
1. Energy storage devices and batteries
All laptop or smartphone owners use Li-ion batteries. From 1995 to 2010, Li-ion batteries became cheaper by an average of 14% per year (in dollars per kWh). 2009 was a turning point, as the use of such batteries for the automotive industry and energy began. Due to the growth of investments over the next 5 years, the reduction in the cost of kWh per year was already 16%.
Reducing the cost of batteries is also due to the localization of production. For example, the Tesla Model S uses approximately 7,000 batteries, each of which can be compared to a smartphone battery. Typically, the production process looks like this: lithium is mined in Chile, Argentina or Australia, sent to China, purified to 99 +%, then sent to Japan or Korea, there it is packaged and sent to California, where Tesla mounts them in a Model S electric car.
Tesla is building a Gigafactory in Nevada to reduce the cost of producing such batteries by 30-50% over three years., and in the near future plans to build an additional 2-4 such plants.
One plant will have a capacity of 50 GW * h and will produce up to half a million cars a year. For comparison, 100 of these plants can satisfy the entire world demand for electricity.
This is a reduction in price without taking into account technical innovations. Additional technological innovations can give at least another 5% per year. The dynamics of declining battery prices and increasing power density are driving the growth of the electric vehicle and solar energy market. The range of electric vehicles is growing and it becomes possible to store solar electricity, which flows unevenly throughout the day.
Largely due to the success of Elon Musk's projects, competitors are investing or redirecting investments in similar projects:
- In 2015 LG Chem announced the closure of a $ 4.2 billion petrochemical project in Kazakhstan. These funds are channeled into the production of batteries.
- Chinese company BYD, one of the largest manufacturers of electric vehicles (mainly for the local market) is going to add an average of 6 GW of capacity to the Chinese analogue of Gigafactory each year and reach a total capacity of 34 GW by 2020 (Tesla plans to reach 35 GW by the same time) ...
- Companies Foxconn and Lg will jointly add another 22 GW by 2020.
- Company Nissan will add 4.5 GW.
- Samsung, SDI, TDK, Apple, Bosch and others are also planning to increase their capacity to produce batteries and possibly electric vehicles.
2. Solar energy
Since the mid-70s of the last century, the price of solar panels has dropped more than 200 times. Since 1990, the number of installations of solar power plants of different capacities has doubled every two years. At this rate, in 14 years, solar energy will be able to provide all of humanity with electricity.
A number of countries have already achieved price parity between conventional and solar energy. It is expected that in the next few years the cost solar energy in some places it will be even lower than the cost of transferring it from nearby power plants. In this case, traditional energy companies will have to supply electricity for free or even with a surcharge in order to somehow compete with solar.
In many markets for large consumers of electricity, solar energy is already cheaper than any traditional counterparts. The cost of 3-5 cents per kWh is equivalent to oil at $ 10 per barrel, or gas at $ 5 per cubic meter.
In all major world markets, a technological breakthrough in this area will happen in the early 1920s. Solar energy plus energy storage will become cheaper than transferring energy through wires. At this point, a breakthrough should come - the exponential growth of new technologies over several years.
3. Electric vehicles
In order to understand that the Tesla Model S is not just another toy for the rich like Ferrari and Porsche, but a new technological breakthrough, it is necessary to compare electric cars with cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE). In fact, everything is simple here.
The efficiency of an internal combustion engine is about 25-40% (gasoline 20-30% and diesel 40%). This means that the remaining 60-80% is spent on overcoming the frictional forces in the engine and on thermal energy going nowhere.
An electric motor has an efficiency of 80-95%, that is, 2-3.5 times more efficient. This fact alone does not yet provide a breakthrough. But if we take into account that electricity is much cheaper, and its prices are less volatile than prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, it turns out that an electric car of the same characteristics will consume several times less electricity.
Depending on the country and source of energy, these figures can vary from 3 to 10 times. When a technology has the potential to deliver 10x improvements, it is most likely a breakthrough. And if you also live in a house where solar panels or some other own source of renewable energy are installed, then you will be able to refuel your car practically for free - the expenses will only go to the installation of the panels themselves or wind turbines.
Service
An ordinary car with an internal combustion engine has more than 2 thousand moving parts. There are several dozen of them in electric vehicles like Tesla Model S (20-30). The mechanics of electric vehicle parts are much simpler and, accordingly, the wear of the parts is small. In fact, you only need to change the wheels, as in a regular car, and after 5-7 years, you may have to change the batteries.
If we take into account the purchase price together with the cost of maintenance and the cost of electricity, then the cost of an electric car is already lower compared to cars with an internal combustion engine, and in the future the gap will only increase.
Because of its low wear and tear and ease of maintenance, companies like Tesla offer an infinite mileage guarantee.
Fuel
The main factors affecting competitiveness are the oil price and the battery price. For example, to reach parity in the cost of a car at an oil price of $ 30 / bbl, the price of a battery must drop to $ 150 / kWh.
Yes, the battery remains the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. But, as already mentioned, since 2009 the price of a battery has decreased by an average of 15-20% per year. Now the price continues to fall, the price is expected to fall to $ 100 / kWh by 2020, which will allow electric vehicles to compete directly (without subsidies) with traditional cars.
There are a number of other important conditions, the observance of which will allow electric vehicles to enter the mainstream segment. The minimum cruising range should be at least 320 km, the recharging time should not exceed half an hour, and the average cost of an electric car should fall to $ 30,000 (on average, a new car in the United States costs about $ 33,000).
When all the conditions are met, electric cars will replace almost all ICE cars, just as digital cameras once almost completely replaced film cameras (Kodak had $ 14 billion in revenue in 2000, and filed for bankruptcy in 2012).
Traditional car manufacturers understand this:
- Company Ford into the production of electric vehicles. In the near future, she plans to transfer almost all development to the new economy. Ford also plans to enter the car-sharing and taxi market, like Uber.
- GM has invested $ 500 million in Lyft - one of the main competitors of Uber. In addition, GM bought the self-driving car company Cruise for $ 1 billion.
- except Tesla and BYD, are preparing or have already released their models of electric cars GM, BMW, Nissan, Kia, Ford - with a range of 300 km and a price in the region of $ 30-40 thousand (in the basic configuration, excluding subsidies).
However, in addition to the obvious ones on this moment leaders, Special attention should be given to other tech companies as well (since history shows that most breakthroughs don't happen where everyone expects them to). So, a number large companies who had never been involved in car manufacturing before entered this market.
For example, Foxconn (the largest iPhone assembler) back in 2014 invested more than $ 800 million in the development of its own electric car, worth around $ 15,000). And in March of this year, Foxconn announced plans to invest $ 1.4 billion in the CATL battery manufacturer for electric vehicles.
The production of electric vehicles is expected to meet the needs of the entire global market by 2025. And since there are technical possibilities on an industrial scale to convert most cars with internal combustion engines into electric vehicles, the process of a massive transition to electric vehicles may occur earlier.
But there is an even more serious breakthrough, which, in symbiosis with energy storage, renewable energy and electric vehicles, can have a colossal impact on the entire world economy... This is an unmanned vehicle.
4. Unmanned vehicles
All major carmakers are aggressively investing in self-driving vehicles. Many of them have already been announced for 2018-2020. the release of the car is 4 levels, which means that these cars never need people to drive.
Cases:
- Bmw began aggressively pushing its autonomous vehicle strategy forward, showcasing the autonomous version of the i8 at CES 2016. There, BMW officially announced that it plans to work with Intel to make all of its i-series electric vehicles autonomous.
- Company cars Tesla is already 90% autonomous and will become 100% autonomous in 2018.
- Company Bosch will build a plant for the production of chips for unmanned vehicles worth 1 billion euros. The plant is scheduled to open in 2019.
- Uber is also actively investing in drones. For a company like Uber, developing self-driving cars will reduce the cost of a taxi ride by 90%, which is what a driver now charges on average.
When will this breakthrough occur and how much will it change the world around us? In order to understand this, it is worth giving examples of reducing the cost of parts necessary for unmanned driving.
Lidar is one of the most expensive parts for autonomous driving. This is a rotating cylinder that is usually located on the roof. Lidar takes millions of measurements per second to "see" the environment. When Google announced an additional price tag of $ 150,000 for parts needed for its self-driving car in 2012, the cost of the lidar was exactly half that amount.
Now Google has managed to reduce the cost of the lidar to $ 7 thousand, that is, the price reduction was 90% compared to 2012. Costs continue to decline, due in part to growing competition and the ever-increasing computing power of processors.
At the same CES 2016, Nvidia unveiled the Nvidia Drive PX 2, the second generation of GPUs specifically designed for autonomous cars. Companies such as Baidu, Tesla, Bosch, and Toyota have partnered with Nvidia. Investor optimism over Nvidia's early work in machine learning and artificial intelligence has driven the company's stock by 64% since the start of 2017.
All this speaks about the reduction in the cost of technologies for self-driving cars and their increase in their availability, which will only grow. In addition, by 2030, the concept of private car ownership will be phased out due to the development of the concept of “car as a service”. Thanks to this, the total number of passenger cars will fall by 70-80% by 2030, when all new vehicles will be electric and unmanned.
Markets awaiting redistribution
As a result of innovation, a huge number of markets will face transformation and redistribution. Apart from the classic automotive industry, here are some of the most obvious ones (although there are many more such markets, especially given the proliferation of IoT technologies).
Oil market
Now the transport sector consumes more than 60% of petroleum products. With the massive transition to electric vehicles, the need for such an amount of oil disappears. Very few power plants run on oil due to their high cost. V transition period gas-fired power plants will be in demand, which, in turn, after 2030-2040, will also no longer be needed in such quantities.
Power plants
Fossil fuel power plants, including nuclear power plants. Constantly cheaper alternative energy sources (especially the sun and wind) in symbiosis with energy storage facilities will make it possible to abandon traditional power plants. There will be a decentralization of all energy industry... Most households will be able to switch to self-sufficiency in electricity. First of all, people who live in their own homes.
Parking
In the event of a massive transition to unmanned vehicles, the need for parking inside the city will practically disappear. Now the car is used 4-5% of the time, while the rest of the time is spent in the parking lot. When the era of unmanned vehicles arrives, the car will be used 80-90% of the time.
Real estate
On the space freed up due to parking, you can build various infrastructure. But at the same time, thanks to fewer cars, life in the suburbs will become much more attractive, which could trigger a real estate crisis within the city.
Logistics
Self-driving vehicles will save a huge amount of money by removing the driver, while seriously optimizing the entire industry.
Insurance
Since more than 90% of accidents are caused by the human factor, removing a person from behind the wheel will reduce the risk of accidents, which will greatly affect the business model of insurance companies. Many will probably decide to give up insurance altogether.
The year began with a record set by Denmark. In January, a wind turbine in the city of Osterlead of nearly 216,000 kWh of electricity - enough to power a standard home 20 years in advance.
China's Qinghai province, with a population of 5.6 million, has been able to run exclusively on green energy this summer. The experiment lasted from June 17 to 23, and during this time the inhabitants of the region consumed 1.1 billion kWh of clean electricity - this is equivalent to burning 535 thousand tons of coal. Powerful hydro resources provided 72.3% of the province's electricity needs, and the rest came from solar and wind generation.
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The next one was for tidal power generation. It was installed by the Scottish company Atlantis Resources Limited, which, with just two hydro turbines, was able to provide electricity to 2,000 Scottish homes. In a month in Scotland, for the first time from tidal energy, which is planned to be used as an alternative fuel for ferries. And in October, Scotland accomplished an engineering feat by launching the first floating boat 24 kilometers offshore. Its turbines are 253 meters high, moreover, they rise only 78 meters above sea level, and are attached to the bottom with chains weighing 1200 tons.
The world's tallest wind turbine this year in Germany. Its support alone is 178 m high, and the total height of the tower, including the blades, exceeds 246.5 m.The project cost € 70 million, but it will pay off in about 10 years: the wind turbine is expected to generate € 6.5 million every year ...
The record for the whole of Europe this fall was secured by hurricanes, which allowed the region to receive from wind turbines. On one of the windiest days, wind turbines in 28 EU countries produced 24.6% of total energy consumption per day - enough to cover 197 million households.
But in terms of the use of renewable sources, Costa Rica can be called. The country spent 300 days in 2017 solely on wind, water, sun and other renewable sources, breaking its 2015 record of 299 days on renewable energy. The most significant contribution was made by hydropower, which accounts for 78% of the country's energy balance. It is followed by 10% of wind energy, 10% of geothermal energy, and 1% each for biofuels and solar energy.
The collapse of prices for renewable sources
In 2017, the idea of a complete transition to renewable energy sources ceased to seem like a utopia. The global fall in solar energy prices began last summer, when Saudi Arabia began selling it at 2.42 ¢ / kWh. But when the tariff dropped to 1.79 ¢ / kWh, everyone decided that this was possible only thanks to their climatic conditions, petrodollars and total control by the state.
However, in November 2017, Mexico's National Electricity Control Center reported that it received - 1.77 ¢ / kWh from ENEL Green Power. This price allowed the company to win a tender for the construction of four largest projects with a total capacity of 682 MW.
Experts believe that already in 2019, solar energy will cost 1 ¢ / kWh.
Solar energy prices in Chile are still higher than in Mexico and Saudi Arabia- 2.148 ¢ / kWh. However, for a country that was an energy importer five years ago and suffered from speculation and inflated tariffs, this is a colossal result. The country's solar farms, even with existing technologies, produce twice as cheap electricity as coal-fired power plants. And the El Romero power plant has turned Chile into one of solar energy.
A further drop in prices will be driven by an increase in the efficiency of solar panels. Recently, JinkoSolar once again broke its own record, achieving 23.45% efficiency of polycrystalline batteries in laboratory conditions. Compared to the standard efficiency of 16.5%, this is a 42% improvement. It is clear that soon this will directly affect tariffs.
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The energy of the offshore wind also fell significantly in price and became. Two British companies have offered at auction to build offshore wind stations that will generate electricity from 2022-2023 at a price of £ 57.50 per MWh. This is half the prices for similar plants in 2015 and less than the new Hinlkey Point C offer at £ 92.50 per MWh.
And German energy producers in October are in favor of using electricity at all. Wind, solar and traditional power plants managed to generate so much energy that within a few days the cost of one megawatt fell below zero, and the maximum drop was € 100. Negative electricity prices persisted on Christmas Eve, thanks to warm weather and strong winds. The demand for electricity was so low that the energy companies were up to € 50 for each MWh consumption.
Solar energy as the main trend
For the collapse of prices for renewable energy, we can thank the countries of the Middle East, which focused on its production, which led to the development of competition and a significant reduction in tariffs. In 2017, it was announced that the Mohammed Ibn Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park (the world's largest network of solar power plants located in a single space in Dubai),. In the new configuration, the park will occupy 214 square kilometers, and the world's tallest 260-meter solar tower will be located in the center of the facility. The additional structures will enable the park to generate 5,000 MW of power by 2030, when all installation work is complete.
More modest, but still records in the field of solar energy were set this year by Australia. At the end of November, the country already had a total capacity of 1 GW, and by the end of the year this figure had reached 1.05 - 1.10 GW. Another record this year is the volume of commercial solar roofs. 285 MW were installed in the 10 to 100 kW category, breaking the previous record of 228 MW in 2016. At the beginning of autumn 2017, it was solar panels that provided 47.8% of the capacity in South Australia. The Australian energy market operator expects that by 2019 the minimum power consumption record could reach 354 MW, and in 10 years, solar panels will completely replace power plants.
Since in Southeast Asia there has long been a lack of land for placing solar power plants, floating farms may be the way out of the situation. It was announced that the surface of the Cirata reservoir in the Indonesian province of West Java with a capacity of 200 MW. The farm will consist of 700,000 floating modules, which will be anchored to the bottom of the reservoir and connected by electrical cables to the onshore high-voltage substation. If the project is successful, 60 such farms will appear throughout Indonesia.
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Technologies
Solar energy will be a real salvation for India. About 300 million of the 1.3 billion Indians are still without electricity, which is why Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is worth € 1.8 billion to electrify all households in the country by the end of December 2018. It will cover about a quarter of the country's population, which is more than 40 million families in rural and urban India. At the expense of the state, solar panels with a capacity of 200-300 W will be supplied to houses without electricity, complete with a battery, five LEDs, a fan and a plug. They will be repaired and serviced free of charge for five years.
In general, by the end of 2017, the world reached 100 GW. China played a huge role in this, taking a leading position in the construction of solar power plants - their total capacity in the country reached 52 GW. The United States (12.5 GW), India (9 GW), Japan (5.8 GW), Germany (2.2 GW) and Brazil (1.3 GW) are followed by a huge margin. Slightly more modest contributions were made by Australia, Chile, Turkey and South Korea.
All the money is for the wind and the sun
Perhaps 2017 was also distinguished by the volume of investments in renewable energy sources. Many oil giants, from Royal Dutch Shell to Total and ExxonMobil, are into energy startups. They believe that in the energy industry, small companies can pose a threat to large players, so you need to always stay on top of trends.
For example, BP is Europe's largest solar panel manufacturer Lightsource. The firm will be renamed Lightsource BP, and BP representatives will receive two board seats. The company will recruit 8,000 people to work in the renewable energy sector, including wind farms in the United States and biofuels in Brazil.
Two US financial giants - JPMorgan and Citigroup - announced this fall that they will be fully clean energy by 2020. And JPMorgan has promised to invest in renewable energy The official 100% transition to renewable energy was announced by Google: the company's offices around the world will consume 3 GW of renewable energy. Google's total investment in renewable energy has reached $ 3.5 billion, 2/3 of which comes from facilities in the United States.
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The World Bank has announced that it is to create the world's largest green bond fund for emerging markets. At the same time, from 2019, all investments of the World Bank Group in the oil and gas industry will be terminated. Earlier, the Oil Fund of Norway is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund with assets of $ 1 trillion. In addition, this year Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil have written off billions of barrels of developed oil reserves in Alberta, Canada, as it has become unprofitable to waste resources on hard-to-recover oil at its low cost. Shell sold its stake in tar sands for $ 7.25 billion, with its clean energy investments growing exponentially.
Repurposing
The switch to renewable energy sources will put hundreds of thousands of oil and gas workers out of work. However, Canadian oilmen saw new opportunities in this. They are the one that will help everyone in the oil and gas industry learn solar panel skills and become a highly sought after specialist when fossil fuel production dies out. In 2018, Iron and Earth plans to retrain at least 1,000 employees in the oil and gas industry, and subsequently open branches throughout Canada and organize training for specialists in the United States. Moreover, not only for oil workers, but for everyone whose skills may soon be unclaimed: miners, crane operators, metallurgists and others.
Germany has solved the unemployment problem in connection with the abandonment of the coal industry even more effective way... The largest coal mine with a depth of 600 meters in the city of Bottrop at 200 MW. This capacity will be enough for 400,000 houses. It will operate on the principle of a battery and store surplus energy from solar panels and windmills. Local workers who were fully employed at the mine will receive an alternative source of income. And the power system will be protected from imbalance at moments when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.
China's state-owned energy company, Three Gorges New Energy Co., follows the same principle. This year, it partially launched 150 MW at a flooded coal mine in Huainan County. The construction, worth $ 151 million, began construction in July and is scheduled for final completion in May 2018. At full capacity, it will be able to provide electricity to 94,000 homes and will be the largest in China.
What's next?
Obviously, interest in renewable energy will continue to grow. The point of no return will be 2050 - by this time most countries will be completely. And in 2018, serious steps will be taken in this direction.
Coal power plants in Europe will be the first to be hit. Today, 54% of them do not make a profit, and exist only to provide
Until ten years ago, renewable energy was considered an unprofitable business. Either enthusiasts or victims of the "green lobby" invested in it. But 2017 showed that the day when "clean" energy will be able to compete on equal terms with traditional power plants is not long.
All records have been broken
The year began with a record set by Denmark. In January, a wind turbine in Osterlead produced nearly 216,000 kWh of electricity per day - enough to power a standard home 20 years in advance.
China's Qinghai province, with a population of 5.6 million, has been able to live exclusively on green energy for a whole week this summer. The experiment lasted from June 17 to 23, and during this time the inhabitants of the region consumed 1.1 billion kWh of clean electricity - this is equivalent to burning 535 thousand tons of coal. Powerful hydro resources provided 72.3% of the province's electricity needs, and the rest came from solar and wind generation.
The next world record was for tidal power generation. It was installed by the Scottish company Atlantis Resources Limited, which, with just two hydro turbines, was able to provide electricity to 2,000 Scottish homes. A month later, Scotland received hydrogen from tidal energy for the first time, which is planned to be used as an alternative fuel for ferries. And in October, Scotland accomplished an engineering feat by launching the first floating wind farm 24 kilometers offshore. Its turbines are 253 meters high, moreover, they rise only 78 meters above sea level, and are attached to the bottom with chains weighing 1200 tons.
The world's tallest wind turbine was built in Germany this year. Its support alone is 178 m high, and the total height of the tower, including the blades, exceeds 246.5 m.The project cost € 70 million, but it will pay off in about 10 years: the wind turbine is expected to generate € 6.5 million every year ...
The record for the whole of Europe this fall was provided by hurricanes, which allowed the region to receive a quarter of its electricity from wind turbines. On one of the windiest days, wind turbines in 28 EU countries produced 24.6% of total energy consumption per day - enough to cover 197 million households.
But Costa Rica can be called the world leader in terms of the use of renewable sources. The country spent 300 days in 2017 solely on wind, water, sun and other renewable sources, breaking its 2015 record of 299 days on renewable energy. The most significant contribution was made by hydropower, which accounts for 78% of the country's energy balance. It is followed by 10% of wind energy, 10% of geothermal energy, and 1% each for biofuels and solar energy.
The collapse of prices for renewable sources
In 2017, the idea of a complete transition to renewable energy sources ceased to seem like a utopia. The global fall in solar energy prices began last summer, when Saudi Arabia began selling it at 2.42 ¢ / kWh. But when the tariff dropped to 1.79 ¢ / kWh, everyone decided that this was possible only due to their climatic conditions, petrodollars and total control by the state.
However, in November 2017, Mexico's National Electricity Control Center reported that it had received a record solar price offer of 1.77 ¢ / kWh from ENEL Green Power. This price allowed the company to win a tender for the construction of four largest projects with a total capacity of 682 MW.
Experts believe that already in 2019, solar energy will cost 1 ¢ / kWh.
Solar energy prices in Chile are still higher than in Mexico and Saudi Arabia - 2.148 ¢ / kWh. However, for a country that was an energy importer five years ago and suffered from speculation and inflated tariffs, this is a colossal result. The country's solar farms, even with existing technologies, produce twice as cheap electricity as coal-fired power plants. And the El Romero power plant has made Chile one of the largest exporters of solar energy.
A further drop in prices will be driven by an increase in the efficiency of solar panels. Recently, JinkoSolar once again broke its own record, achieving 23.45% efficiency of polycrystalline batteries in laboratory conditions. Compared to the standard efficiency of 16.5%, this is a 42% improvement. It is clear that soon this will directly affect tariffs.
Offshore wind energy has also dropped significantly in price and has become cheaper than nuclear power. Two British companies have offered at auction to build offshore wind stations that will generate electricity from 2022-2023 at a price of £ 57.50 per MWh. This is half the prices for similar plants in 2015 and less than the new Hinlkey Point C offer at £ 92.50 per MWh.
And German energy producers in October paid extra to their consumers for the use of electricity. Wind, solar and traditional power plants managed to generate so much energy that within a few days the cost of one megawatt fell below zero, and the maximum drop was € 100. Negative electricity prices persisted on Christmas Eve, thanks to warm weather and strong winds. The demand for electricity was so low that energy companies paid extra for large consumers up to € 50 for the consumption of each MWh.
Solar energy as the main trend
For the collapse of prices for renewable energy, we can thank the countries of the Middle East, which focused on its production, which led to the development of competition and a significant reduction in tariffs. In 2017, it was announced that the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park (the world's largest network of solar power plants located in a single space in Dubai) will increase capacity by another 700 MW. In the new configuration, the park will occupy 214 square kilometers, and the world's tallest 260-meter solar tower will be located in the center of the facility. The additional structures will enable the park to generate 5,000 MW of power by 2030, when all installation work is complete.
More modest, but still records in the field of solar energy were set this year by Australia. At the end of November, the country had already built solar stations with a total capacity of 1 GW, and by the end of the year this figure reached 1.05 - 1.10 GW. Another record this year is the volume of commercial solar roofs. 285 MW were installed in the 10 to 100 kW category, breaking the previous record of 228 MW in 2016. In early autumn 2017, it was solar panels that provided 47.8% of all electricity generation capacity in South Australia. The Australian energy market operator expects that by 2019 the minimum power consumption record could reach 354 MW, and in 10 years, solar panels will completely replace power plants.
Since in Southeast Asia there has long been a lack of land for placing solar power plants, floating farms may be the way out of the situation. It was announced that a 200 MW solar power plant will be located on the surface of the Cirata reservoir in the Indonesian province of West Java. The farm will consist of 700,000 floating modules, which will be anchored to the bottom of the reservoir and connected by electrical cables to the onshore high-voltage substation. If the project is successful, 60 such farms will appear throughout Indonesia.
Solar energy will be a real salvation for India. About 300 million of the 1.3 billion Indians are still without electricity, so Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a € 1.8 billion program that will electrify all households in the country by the end of December 2018. It will cover about a quarter of the country's population, which is more than 40 million families in rural and urban India. At the expense of the state, solar panels with a capacity of 200-300 W will be supplied to houses without electricity, complete with a battery, five LEDs, a fan and a plug. They will be repaired and serviced free of charge for five years.
In general, by the end of 2017, the total capacity of solar installations in the world reached 100 GW. China played a huge role in this, taking a leading position in the construction of solar power plants - their total capacity in the country reached 52 GW. The United States (12.5 GW), India (9 GW), Japan (5.8 GW), Germany (2.2 GW) and Brazil (1.3 GW) are followed by a huge margin. Slightly more modest contributions were made by Australia, Chile, Turkey and South Korea.
All the money is for the wind and the sun
Perhaps 2017 was also distinguished by the volume of investments in renewable energy sources. Many oil giants, from Royal Dutch Shell to Total and ExxonMobil, have started investing in energy startups. They believe that in the energy industry, small companies can pose a threat to large players, so you need to always stay on top of trends.
For example, BP paid $ 200 million to acquire a 43% stake in Europe's largest solar panel manufacturer Lightsource. The firm will be renamed Lightsource BP, and BP representatives will receive two board seats. The company will recruit 8,000 people to work in the renewable energy sector, including wind farms in the United States and biofuels in Brazil.
Two US financial giants - JPMorgan and Citigroup - announced this fall that they will be fully clean energy by 2020. And JPMorgan has pledged to invest $ 200 billion in renewable energy by 2025. Google also announced the official 100% transition to renewable energy: the company's offices around the world will consume 3 GW of renewable energy. Google's total investment in renewable energy has reached $ 3.5 billion, 2/3 of which comes from facilities in the United States.
The World Bank announced that it will invest $ 325 million in the Green Cornerstone fund to create the world's largest green bond fund for emerging markets. At the same time, from 2019, all investments of the World Bank Group in the oil and gas industry will be terminated. Earlier this was announced by the Oil Fund of Norway - the world's largest sovereign fund with assets of $ 1 trillion. In addition, this year Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil have written off billions of barrels of developed oil reserves in Alberta, Canada, as it has become unprofitable to waste resources on hard-to-recover oil at its low cost. Shell sold its stake in tar sands for $ 7.25 billion, while its investment in clean energy is growing exponentially.
Repurposing
The transition to renewable energy sources will put hundreds of thousands of oil and gas workers out of work. However, Canadian oilmen saw new opportunities in this. They created Iron and Earth to help everyone in the oil and gas industry learn solar panel skills and become in-demand specialists when fossil fuel production dies out. In 2018, Iron and Earth plans to retrain at least 1,000 employees in the oil and gas industry, and subsequently open branches throughout Canada and organize training for specialists in the United States. Moreover, not only for oil workers, but for everyone whose skills may soon be unclaimed: miners, crane operators, metallurgists and others.
Germany solved the problem of unemployment in connection with the abandonment of the coal industry in an even more efficient way. The largest coal mine, 600 meters deep in the city of Bottrop, will be converted into a 200 MW pumped storage power plant. This capacity will be enough for 400,000 houses. It will operate on the principle of a battery and store surplus energy from solar panels and windmills. Local workers who were fully employed at the mine will receive an alternative source of income. And the power system will be protected from imbalance at moments when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.
China's state-owned energy company, Three Gorges New Energy Co., follows the same principle. This year, it partially launched a 150 MW floating solar farm at a flooded coal mine in Huainan County. The construction, worth $ 151 million, began construction in July, and is scheduled for final completion in May 2018. Operating at full capacity, it will be able to provide electricity to 94,000 homes and will be the largest in the PRC.
Obviously, interest in renewable energy will continue to grow. The point of no return will be 2050, by which time most countries will completely switch to clean energy. And in 2018, serious steps will be taken in this direction.
Coal power plants in Europe will be the first to be hit. Today, 54% of them are not profitable, and exist only for the sake of peak load. In 2018, Finland will ban the use of coal for power generation and raise its carbon tax. By 2030, the country plans to completely phase out this fuel.
Indian coal company Coal India also plans to close 37 coal mines in March 2018 - their development has become economically unprofitable due to the development of renewable energy. The company will save about $ 124 million on this, after which it will switch to solar energy and install at least 1 GW of new solar capacity in India.
Solar energy demand in Europe is expected to grow by 35% in just one year in 2018. The main request for solar panels will be generated by Spain and the Netherlands, which are going to implement the largest projects over the next two years. They are expected to reach 1.4 GW and 1 GW, respectively.
And Germany and France have already crossed the gigawatt mark this year. In Latin America, solar demand in the region will double in 2018, while Brazil and Mexico are expected to cross the “gigawatt line”. Egypt, South Korea and Australia have also reached a gigawatt of installed capacity.
The cost of solar energy in 2017 will fall below 2 cents per kWh
Source: http://www.energy-fresh.ru/news/?id=14275
Research firm GTM Research predicts the price of solar energy will drop below 2 cents per kWh this year, breaking the previous record of 2.42 cents per kWh proposed at an auction in Abu Dhabi.
According to analysts at GTM Research, who predict an increase in the total solar panel capacity in 2017 by 85 GW, the first tender in Saudi Arabia this year may offer a price for solar energy below 2 cents per kWh, writes PV Tech.
“The conditions under which the first tender in Saudi Arabia will take place are similar to those under which previous records were set: the long-term project, almost zero cost of land for construction, low cost of permission, low taxes and extremely attractive financial conditions", - said Ben Attia, analyst at GTM Research.
The previous record was set in September last year at an auction in Abu Dhabi, when Chinese solar panel maker JinkoSolar and Japan's Marubeni bid 2.42 cents per kWh of solar energy. Prior to that, at an auction in Chile, SunEdison offered 2.91 cents per kWh.
Electricity in Saudi Arabia will be renewable by 10%
Source: https://hightech.fm/2017/04/19/clean-energy-saudi
Saudi Arabia plans to achieve 10% of its electricity generation from renewable sources within six years. This was stated by the Minister of Energy of the Kingdom, Khalid al-Falih. The country, which is the world's largest oil exporter, will also sell renewable energy technologies abroad, the minister said.
At a forum to find investments in the energy sector, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih announced "30 projects that must be implemented" so that by the beginning of the next decade, 10 GW of capacity will come from renewable energy sources. It is about using the energy of the sun and wind. According to the official, these projects can cost between $ 30 billion and $ 50 billion, writes Phys.org.
Currently, almost all of the country's energy supply depends on oil or natural gas, but in 6 years the situation will change markedly, the minister said. “The share of renewable energy by 2023 will be 10% of the total electricity in the kingdom,” said Khalid al-Falih. “We strive to turn the kingdom into a state that develops, manufactures and exports advanced technologies for the production of renewable energy in the medium term,” he said.
Khalid al-Falih compared the significance of the changes taking place in the energy sector of Saudi Arabia to the discovery of oil fields in the 1930s. According to him, the "socio-economic transition" to renewable energy will take place within 10 to 20 years.
As part of the plan for the transition to renewable energy sources, a tender has been officially opened for the construction of the first solar power plant with a capacity of 300 MW. The list of potential contractors includes 51 companies, mainly foreign organizations, which will also participate in the tender for the construction of a wind farm with a capacity of 400 MW. Another wind farm project will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2017, followed by new projects related to solar energy production, the official said.
The government estimates that Saudi Arabia will need over 120 GW of aggregate power plant capacity by 2032 to cover peak loads. According to the minister, nuclear energy should also become part of the country's energy sector. The final program for the transition to renewable energy has not yet been developed, the minister said.
Germany sets record for renewable energy production
Source: https://hightech.fm/2017/04/18/german-renewables-record-march
Germany produced 19.5 TWh of renewable energy in March, accounting for over 41% of the country's total electricity production. This is more than ever.
Renewables produced just over 41% of all electricity in Germany last month, with nuclear power declining to its lowest level since the 1970s - even though no nuclear power plants have been shut down since 2015.
Germany also set a record for daily wind power generation in March, with wind power generation reaching 38.5 GW on March 18, 0.5 GW more than the previous record set on February 22. In total, in a month, together with solar power, wind power plants produced about 12.5 TWh of electricity.
Biomass energy production was also high - 4.5 TWh, but it was not possible to break the previous record set in December 2014 - 4.8 TWh. All hydropower generated in March also rose 50% from the previous month.
By 2050, in order to implement the Paris Climate Agreement, Germany plans to fully switch to renewable energy sources and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 95%. At the end of 2016, about 32% of all electricity consumed in Germany came from renewable sources.
Scientists triple the lifespan of lithium-ion batteries
Source: https://hightech.fm/2017/04/19/battery-cover
Researchers at the University of California, Riverside have developed a new coating for lithium-ion batteries that stabilizes battery performance and extends battery life more than three times that of standard batteries.
Highly efficient lithium-ion batteries are a key ingredient in today's laptops, smartphones and electric vehicles. Currently, the anode, or electrode attached to the positive pole of a battery, is typically made of graphite and other carbon-based materials, Science Daily writes.
However, the performance of carbon-based anodes is severely limited, since microscopic fibers - dendrites - begin to grow uncontrollably in the battery during charging. They degrade the performance of the battery and also pose a safety hazard as they can short-circuit the battery and cause a fire.
A group of researchers from the University of California, Riverside have figured out how to solve this problem. Scientists have found that when only 0.005% methylviologen is added to the electrolyte, its molecules form a stabilizing coating on the electrode, thereby increasing the battery life more than threefold. At the same time, methylviologen is very cheap to manufacture, which makes its widespread use possible.
Even experts are amazed at how fantastic solar energy is growing in the world. Although today its share in the global energy balance is less than one percent, experts predict that by 2050 it will be at least 27 percent and will bypass all other types of fuel.
In May of this year, the Sol-Iletskaya SPP with a capacity of 25 MW was commissioned in the Orenburg region. Photo: Press Service of Hevel Group
What are the prerequisites for such an optimistic forecast? First of all, the amount invested is about $ 100 billion a year. And the pace of commissioning new capacities. In 2016 alone, solar power plants (SPP) with a total capacity of 70 - 75 GW were commissioned in the world. That is, over the year, the capacity of solar energy has grown by one third at once, reaching about 300 GW.
If not long ago Europe was the world leader, now China has intercepted the palm. In just a year, the capacity of power plants here almost doubled, reaching 78 GW. And the plans are Napoleonic: the capacity of solar power plants is planned to be increased by 110 GW by 2020. For these purposes, the country intends to spend hundreds of billions of dollars.
Ironically, solar energy has barely noticed the fall in oil prices. But the stake on alternative sources in the world was made exactly when the price of hydrocarbon fuel was going through the roof.
The general strategy for the development of alternative energy is unlikely to change, - Oleg Popel, Chairman of the RAS Scientific Council on Unconventional Renewable Energy Sources, Deputy Director of the RAS Joint Institute for High Temperatures, told RG. - Everyone understands that the economy develops in cycles, and that a recession will definitely be followed by an upturn. This means that everything will return to normal, including the price of oil. In a word, you will still have to rely on alternative energy, including the sun.
There are several reasons for this boom in solar energy, in particular, the desire of countries to move away from imports of hydrocarbons, as well as to decide ecological problems associated with carbon dioxide emissions. But the main incentive is the price of a solar kilowatt. In just a few years, in many countries, it has come close to the price of electricity obtained at coal and gas stations.
In Russia, more than three quarters of the territory does not have a centralized power supply
And what about Russia? Maybe the sun is not our option? After all, we are a country with a cold climate. But here are the data from the Energy Strategy Institute. The potential of solar energy entering the territory of Russia in just three days exceeds the energy of the entire annual electricity production in the country. The amount of solar radiation varies from 810 kWh to square meter per year in remote northern regions up to 1400 kWh in the south.
In general, the idea that Russia is a country with little sun is fundamentally wrong, says Oleg Popel. - In many regions, including Transbaikalia and Yakutia, it is more profitable to use solar energy than in the Krasnodar Territory and Crimea. There are more sunny days and solar radiation here than in the southern regions.
So we have the sun, but how does it work? Except for the SPP in Crimea, today there are 10 stations in Russia with a total capacity of about 100 MW, or 0.04 percent of the total installed capacity of the Russian energy system. As for Crimea, today there are five stations with a total capacity of 300 MW, but they are not connected to the country's unified energy system and operate only on the peninsula.
In general, the scale of Russian solar energy is, of course, minuscule in comparison with China - almost 200 times less. Alas, the program adopted in 2009 has been disrupted, according to which the share of alternative energy by 2020 was supposed to be 4.5 percent of the total generation. This figure has now been pushed back to 2024.
But should Russia be chasing the leaders? Experts are sure that this is not our way. It makes no sense for Russia to invest huge amounts of money in this area. Today, the government has chosen three main directions for the development of solar energy. The first is associated with the creation of solar power plants that are connected to centralized power grids. It is fundamentally important that now they can discharge excess generated energy into them. According to Oleg Popel, as soon as in 2013-2014 documents appeared that oblige monopolists to connect "small" energy producers to the network and allow them to earn money on generation, a boom began in our solar energy industry. A private investor has come into this area.
Infographics: "RG" / Alexander Smirnov / Irina Fursova
Today, a so-called capacity supply agreement (CDA) is concluded between the state and the investor, according to which the state guarantees a return on investment in an amount that allows the investor to recoup the investment in a maximum of 15 years, says Popel. - There is another system operating abroad, there are strict tariffs at which the network buys solar energy from a private trader. We have adopted another option.
Apparently, Russian business liked it. In any case, today all the limits set by the state for the commissioning of SPP capacities have been chosen by different companies. They committed themselves to launching the stations, even at the risk of receiving fines for missed deadlines. They have to build 57 SPPs with a capacity of 5 to 70 MW and a total capacity of 1.5 GW by 2024.
Someone will say that if this is a boom, then in comparison with the leaders it is very modest. Right. But in our country there is a surplus of capacities of about 25 percent. Therefore, it would be strange to introduce new ones on a large scale now. According to experts, the strategy in the field of solar energy should be reduced to the accumulation of experience in the construction and operation of such plants. In general, we need to develop our technologies in order to maintain competencies in this area.
China is primarily trying to solve environmental problems using solar energy
A different picture with distant regions. In Russia, more than 75 percent of the territories do not have a centralized power supply, power lines do not reach here, so fuel has to be imported, which costs a pretty penny. For example, in Yakutia, the cost of electricity from diesel generators costs 25, and in some places 60 rubles per kilowatt-hour. And here there is a wide field of activity for solar installations.
Recently, for remote regions where there is no centralized power supply, a national project was adopted to create autonomous solar-diesel installations with a capacity of 100 kW. According to Oleg Popel, many regions are already interested in him, since the introduction of such systems will save significant funds. Regional energy development programs are already being developed, and almost all of them provide for renewable sources, including solar.
And although in this case the state does not provide support to business, the national project has found investors who see interest here. By 2021, 100 autonomous installations with a capacity of 100 kW are to be commissioned in different regions, two have already been built in Altai.
And, finally, the third direction in the development of solar energy in Russia is micro-installations with a capacity of up to 15 kW. It is proposed to allow private owners to buy such systems, generate electricity for their own needs, and sell the surplus on the network. The decision to support this project has not yet been made; now its regulatory framework is being developed.
To implement all these areas, a plant was built in Novocheboksarsk, which produces new technology photovoltaic modules that are not inferior to the best world samples. Their efficiency is about 20 percent, which is twice as good as that of the models common today. According to the heads of the enterprise, such a level of production will allow not only to meet the needs of Russia, but also to enter the world market of solar installations.
