The year began with a record that set Denmark. In January, the wind turbine in the city of Osterlid is almost 216,000 kW * h of electricity - it is enough to provide electricity a standard house for 20 years ahead.
The Chinese province of Qinghai with a population of 5.6 million people could exclusively at the "green" energy. The experiment continued from 17 to 23 June, and during this time the inhabitants of the region consume 1.1 billion kW * h of net electricity - this is equivalent to incinerating 535 thousand tons of coal. Powerful hydroresuses provided provinces 72.3% of the need for electricity, and the rest gave solar and wind generation.
Matrix and Holy Grail: The main achievements of physics for 2017
The next fell on the production of tidal energy. It was installed by the Scottish company Atlantis Resources Limited, which, with the help of only two hydroturbines, was able to provide 2,000 Scottish houses with electricity. In a month in Scotland for the first time from tidal energy, which plan to use as an alternative fuel for ferries. And in October, Scotland made an engineering feat, running the first floating 24 kilometers from the coast. Its turbines are 253 meters high, and, above sea level, they are tested only 78 meters, and the bottoms are fixed with chains weighing 1200 tons.
The world's highest wind turbine this year in Germany. Its only her support with a height of 178 m, and the overall height of the tower taking into account the blades exceeds 246.5 m. The project cost € 70 million, but it will pay off at about 10 years: it is expected that every year the windmill will bring € 6.5 million .
The record for all of Europe this fall was provided by hurricanes that allowed the region to receive from wind plants. In one of the windy days, the wind generators of 28 EU countries per day produced 24.6% of the total energy consumption - it would be enough for providing 197 million households.
But in terms of the use of renewable sources, Costa Rica can be called. The country of weight of 300 days in 2017 was exclusively by the energy of wind, water, the sun and other renewable sources, having traveled its own record of 2015 - 299 days on renewable energy. The most significant contribution was made by hydropower, which is 78% of the country's energy balance. It goes 10% of wind energy, 10% geothermal energy, and 1% falls on biofuels and solar energy.
Resume Sources
In 2017, the idea of \u200b\u200ba complete transition to renewable energy has ceased to seem utopia. The world fall in prices for solar energy began last summer, when Saudi Arabia began to sell it at 2.42 ¢ / kWh. But when the tariff decreased to 1.79 ¢ / kWh, everyone decided that it was possible only due to their climatic conditions, petrodollars and total control by the state.
However, in November 2017, the Center for National Electricity Control Mexico reported that he received - 1.77 ¢ / kWh from Enel Green Power. Such a price allowed the company to win a tender for the construction of the four largest projects with a total capacity of 682 MW.
Experts believe that in 2019 solar energy will cost 1 ¢ / kWh.
The prices for solar energy in Chile is still higher than in Mexico and Saudi Arabia - 2,148 ¢ / kWh. However, for the country, which five years ago was an energy importer and suffered from speculation and overestimated tariffs, this is a tremendous result. Solar farms of the country, even with existing technologies, produce twice cheaper electricity than coal power plants. And the EL Romero power station turned chile to one of the solar energy.
Further fall in prices will be caused by an increase in the efficiency of solar panels. Recently, Jinkosolar once again broke his own record, having achieved in laboratory conditions for the effectiveness of polycrystalline batteries in 23.45%. Compared with standard efficiency of 16.5%, this improvement is 42%. It is clear that soon it will be directly affected by tariffs.
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The energy of the sea wind also fell strongly in price and became. Two British companies offered at the auction to build stations of sea winds, which will be produced from 2022-2023 to produce electricity at a price of £ 57.50 per MW * h. It is two times less than the prices for similar stations in 2015 and less than the new Hincalki-Point NPP offers £ 92.50 per MW * h.
And German energy producers in October and at all for the use of electricity. Wind, solar and traditional power plants managed to develop so much energy that over the course of several days the cost of one megawatt fell below zero, and the maximum fall was - € 100. Negative electricity prices were established on Christmas Eve, thanks to warm weather and a powerful wind. The demand for electricity was so low that the power company is up to € 50 for the consumption of each MW * h.
Solar energy as head trend
For the collapse of prices for renewable energy, it is possible to thank the countries of the Middle East, which concentrated on its production, which led to the development of competition and significant decrease in tariffs. In 2017, it was announced that the Sunny Park named after Mohammed Ibn Rashid Al Maktuum (the world's largest network of solar power plants localized in a single space in Dubai) ,. In the new configuration, the park will take 214 sq. Km, and in the center of the object there will be the highest 260-meter sunny tower in the world. Extension structures will give the park with the ability to generate 5000 MW of energy by 2030, when all work on their installation will be completed.
More modest, but still records in the field of solar energy supplied Australia this year. At the end of November, the country has already cumulative with 1 GW, and by the end of the year this figure reached 1.05 - 1.10 GW. Another record indicator of this year is the volume of commercial solar roofs. 285 MW was installed in a category from 10 to 100 kW, having folded the previous record - 228 MW in 2016. At the beginning of the fall of 2017, it is solar batteries that provided 47.8% of the power in the state of South Australia. The Australian Energy Market Operator assumes that by 2019 the minimum power consumption record can reach 354 MW, and after 10 years, solar batteries will completely replace the power plant.
Since in Southeast Asia, there is a shortage of land for the placement of solar power plants, the exit of the situation may be floating farms. It was announced that on the surface of Cirata's reservoir in the Indonesian province of Western Java with a capacity of 200 MW. The farm will consist of 700,000 floating modules that will be attached to the bottom of the reservoir and connect with electrical cables with the coastal high-voltage substation. If the project is successful, 60 such farms will appear in all Indonesia.
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Technologies
A real salvation solar energy will become for India. About 300 million from 1.3 billion Indians still live without electricity, so the Prime Minister of India Narendra Moi costs € 1.8 billion, which will allow electrifying all households of the country by the end of December 2018. It will cover about a quarter of the country's population, and this is more than 40 million families in rural and urban India. In the house without electricity, at the expense of the state, there are solar batteries with a capacity of 200-300 W, complete with a battery, five LEDs, a fan and a plug. They will be repaired for free and service for five years.
In general, by the end of 2017, the world reached 100 GW. China played a huge role, which took the leading position in the construction of solar power plants - their total capacity in the country reached 52 GW. Further, the United States (12.5 GW), India (9 GW), Japan (5.8 GW), Germany (2.2 GW) and Brazil (1.3 GW) are held with a huge margin. Australia, Chile, Turkey and South Korea contributed a slightly more modest contribution.
All money - on the wind and sun
Perhaps, 2017 also distinguished himself by the volume of investments in renewable energy sources. Many oil giants, from Royal Dutch Shell to Total and ExxonMobil, in energy startups. They believe that in the energy industry, small companies may pose a threat to major players, so you should always stay up to date with trends.
So, BP largest in Europe of the manufacturer of solar panels LightSource. The company renamed LightSource BP, and representatives of BP will receive two places in the board. The company will host 8,000 people to work in the field of renewable energy, including in wind power plants in the United States and the production of biofuels in Brazil.
Two American financial giants - Jpmorgan and Citigroup - this fall announced that by 2020 they will completely switch to clean energy. And Jpmorgan promised to invest in renewable energy about the official one hundred percent transition to renewable and Google: the company's offices around the world will consume 3 GW renewable energy. Google's total investments in the sphere of renewable energy reached $ 3.5 billion, 2/3 of which falls on objects in the United States.
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The World Bank announced that to create the world's largest Foundation for "Green Bonds" for emerging markets. At the same time, since 2019, all WORLD BANK GROUP investments in the oil and gas industry will be discontinued. Earlier and the oil fund of Norway is the world's largest sovereign fund with $ 1 trillion assets. In addition, this year, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and Exxonmobil have been written off from their balance billions of barrels of developed oil reserves in Canadian Alberta, since it became unprofitable to spend resources on hard-to-remove oil at its low cost. Shell sold its share of assets in bituminous sands for $ 7.25 billion. At the same time, their investments in pure energy are growing at the exhibitor.
Refill
The transition to renewable energy sources will deprive hundreds of thousands of employees of the oil and gas industry. However, Canadian oilmen saw new opportunities for themselves. They will help all employees of the oil and gas industry to get skills to work with sunbathing and become popular specialists when the mining of fossil fuel comes to no. For 2018, Iron and Earth plans to retrain at least 1,000 employees of the oil and gas industry, and subsequently open branches throughout Canada and organize training for professionals in the United States. Moreover, not only for oilmen, but for everyone whose skills can soon be unclaimed: miners, craners, metallurgists and others.
Germany solved the problem of unemployment due to the refusal of the coal industry even more efficiently. The largest coal mine in a depth of 600 meters in the city of Bottrop for 200 MW. This power is enough for 400,000 houses. It will work on the battery principle and accumulate excess energy from solar panels and windmills. Local workers who were completely busy at the mine will receive an alternative source of earnings. And the power system will be protected from imbalance at the moments when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow.
By the same principle, China's state energy company Three Gorges New Energy Co. This year, she partially launched 150 MW on a flooded coal career in Huainan County. The construction of $ 151 million began to be built in July, and the final completion of work is planned in May 2018. Working at full capacity, it will be able to provide electricity with 94,000 houses and will become the largest in the PRC.
What's next?
Obviously, interest in renewable energy sources will continue to grow. The point of non-return will be 2050 - it is precisely to this period that most countries are completely. And in 2018, serious steps in this direction will be made.
The first to hit the coal power plants in Europe will fall. To date, 54% of them do not bring profits, and exist only for the sake of providing
Overview of the headlines published on the World Renewable Energy website ( Renewable Energy WORLD.), I discovered many interesting trends in the global market for renewable energy sources. Jennifer Deloni's journal editor presented 10 trends that will be relevant in 2017.
10. Renewable fuel for jet engines
In addition to the agreements made by large airlines such as Jetblue and United, with the promises to put into operation renewable fuel sources for jet engines, government worldwide reached an agreement in October to develop a global market measure for international aviation. The agreement is part of a larger plan to invest in new aviation technologies, expanding the use of renewable fuels and improve work to reduce carbon emissions in the aviation industry. In 2017, an increase in the number of airlines will be expected to introduce renewable fuel sources for jet engines in their activities and improve the infrastructure for the production of this fuel.
9. Drones
The interest in 2016 was chained to drone. It is expected that they will be in the spotlight and in 2017. Now the industry is looking for ways, as using this technology to improve development in the field of renewable energy, while reducing the cost of operation and maintenance. Attention will be focused on improving technologies placed on unmanned aerial vehicles.
8. Hydroaccumulating power plants
Technologies for which hydro-accumulating power plants are created are constantly changing. Power stations are used to store energy obtained from renewable sources. This trend will be relevant in 2017. It is expected that in the new year, the GESS will also use other technologies for obtaining renewable energy, in particular, from the wind energy and the sun.
7. Solar energy in Africa
Startaps for the spread of the energy obtained from the Sun have a great success in those parts of Africa, where there is no permanent access to conventional energy sources. The PAY-GO Solar model combines the solar battery, energy storage devices and mobile payment technologies so that customers can get an accessible option for electricity. In 2016, startups also received support for investors. In 2017, it is expected that such a model will apply to new regions in Africa, and will also receive new larger investors.
6. Energy storage systems
In 2016, it is possible to note the progress in the market for energy storage systems. Storage systems have improved, now they are able to accumulate energy from different renewable sources. This year, the main topic around such energy storage facilities will be the idea that energy accumulation deserves a separate policy in the energy markets. In 2017, it is worth expecting progress in this direction from the United States, Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
5. Offshore wind power plants in the USA
A large theme of 2016 in the United States has become offshore wind energy. In particular, the BLOCK ISLAND Wind Farm power station was launched. This market showed considerable activity, and the states on the east coast were actively working on mechanisms to support the development of offshore wind power plants. In addition, the developers put forward proposals that will stimulate growth in this industry for many years. In 2017, it is expected that this topic will be discussed at the state level, which will contribute to the development of the industry, as well as possible partnerships between the offshore wind power plants and the developers of petroleum and gas deposits.
4. Corporations and renewable energy sources
Large corporations demonstrated their capabilities in 2016, relying on the already growing interest in obtaining energy from renewable resources. Not only is Google, Apple, Microsoft and other major companies have taken over the development of renewable energy renewable energy in 2016, the corporate community has established an alliance, the purpose of which is to find more possible ways to buy energy from renewable sources. In 2017, large companies are expected to develop creative strategies for the choice of renewable energy sources.
3. Trump
Much ever shocked environmental communities and specialists in renewable energy sources more than victory in the presidential elections in 2016 Donald Trump. In 2017, representatives of the Global Environment Community, while holding his breath, expect how Trump will come to office and begin to demonstrate how quickly he can move towards canceling the work that President Obama has done for the development of net energy policy and reduce carbon dioxide emissions Gas.
2. Tesla
Tesla history in 2016 was full of bends and turns, risk and excitement. So, Ilon Mask introduced energy storage devices in the United States and Europe; Developed communication with Panasonic; revealed a grand plan for combining the energy of the Sun, its storage and cost of charging; Bought SolarCity for $ 2 billion; And introduced the concept of a solar glass roof. What to expect in 2017 from this incredible company and its leader, you can only guess.
1. India
India ranks No. 1 in this list of trends due to its extensive activities in the field of solar energy in 2016. By 2022, the country plans, following the plans of the Prime Minister of Narendra Mod, to increase solar capacities in the country to 100 GW. India has allocated about $ 3 billion public funding for the development of solar panel production in the country. Meanwhile, the global investment community has already invested in the development of solar energy projects about $ 100 billion. India will continue to be sustainable development in 2017 and will demonstrate its leadership in the field of "green" finances, in particular, the first will open hereGreen Bank. Original Article in English -The whole truth about solar panels
It's time to talk about how effective solar energy in the Moscow region. A whole year I collected solar energy output statistics from two 100-watt solar panels installed on the roof of a country house and connected to the network using an inverter grid. I already wrote about it a year ago. And now it's time to summarize.
Now you will learn what the sellers of solar panels will never tell.
Exactly a year ago, in October 2015, as an experiment, I decided to sign up in the ranks of "green", saving our planet from premature death, and acquired solar panels with a maximum power of 200 watts and a grid-inverter, a maximum of 300 (500) watts produced with a maximum of 300 (500) . In the photo you can see the structure of the polycrystalline 200-watt panel, but in a couple of days after the purchase it became clear that it has too low voltage in a single configuration (it has only 60 cells, instead of the recommended 72), insufficient for the correct operation of my grid inverter .
Therefore, I had to change it into two 100-watt single-crystal panels. Theoretically, they should be a little more efficient, the fact they are just more expensive. These are high quality panels, Russian SunWays brand. For two panels, I paid 14,800 rubles.
Supplement for those in the tank and does not read the text: in the photo the polycrystalline solar panel, which I wrote above, it just looks very beautiful when shooting close-up, so I put her photo here.
The second line of expenses is a GRID-inverter of Chinese production. The manufacturer did not designate himself, but the device was done qualitatively, and the autopsy showed that the internal components are designed to power up to 500 watts (instead of 300 written on the housing). This grid also supports MPPT mode, which allows you to get a maximum of solar panels at any illumination. There is such a grid of only 5,000 rubles. Grid is a brilliant device. On the one hand, it connects to it + and - from solar panels, and on the other hand, it is connected to any electrical outlet in your home using a conventional electric plug. In the process of operation, the grid adjusts to the frequency on the network and begins to "pump out" alternating current (converted from permanent) into your home network 220 volts.
Grid works only if there is a voltage in the network and it cannot be considered as a backup power supply.. This is his only minus. A colossal advantage of the inverter grid is that you basically do not need batteries. After all, accumulators are the weakest link in alternative energy. If the same solar panel will be guaranteed for more than 25 years (that is, in 25 years, it will lose about 20% of its performance), then the service life of an ordinary lead battery under similar conditions will be 3-4 years old. Gel and AGM batteries will last longer, up to 10 years old, but they are in 5 times more expensive batteries.
Since I have network electricity, I do not need any batteries. If you do the system autonomous, then you need to add another 15-20 thousand rubles to the budget on the battery and the controller to it.
Now that concerns the generation of electricity. All the energy generated by solar panels in real time enters the network. If there are consumers of this energy in the house, it will be all spent, and the counter at entering the house "spin" will not. If the instant energy generation exceeds currently consumed, then all the energy will be transferred back to the network. That is, the counter will "spin" in the opposite direction. But here there are nuances.
First, many modern electronic counters consider passing through them current excluding its direction (i.e you will pay For the electricity disclosed back to the network). And secondly, russian legislation does not allow individuals to sell electricity. This is permitted in Europe and that is why every second house is covered with solar panels, which in a set with high network tariffs allows you to really save.
But over the past year, changes occurred both in the network tariffs and used equipment. I replaced the inverter and the development increased ...
... But the miracle, unfortunately, did not happen.
Let me remind you that in my system there are no accumulators in the form of batteries, because First, they are absolutely not needed (all energy generated by sun panels is guaranteed to be consumed), and secondly, they will only increase the cost of equipment and require regular replacement every few years (in the current configuration, the system does not require maintenance during the entire service life).
Initially, for the system, I bought a 300 watt grid, which was installed in the house. He had two disadvantages - first, it is a fan noise, which periodically turned on to cool the internal components, and secondly, losses on the wires from solar panels to the inverter. But during the operation, another drawback was revealed. It turned out that the purchased grid was calculated on the power of 500 watts panels and this is the very case when the inverter should not have a power supply. My overall 200 watt panels could not load it completely and as a result he had a low efficiency in cloud weather and the generation was often broken.
I decided to replace the grid to another. For these purposes, I purchased a micro inverter in a sealed case, installed in the immediate vicinity of solar panels with a maximum power of 230 watts. And the wire with a voltage of 220 volts extends from it to the network of the house. Already the first inclusion showed that this grid is able to produce energy (albeit little) even in cloud weather.
The solar panels are installed on the stationary frame on the roof and are directed strictly south. Approximately 4 times a year I change their angle of inclination. Almost horizontally in summer, at an angle of 45 degrees in the offseason and as close as possible to the vertical in winter. But still in winter they fall asleep with snow. Periodically, they need to be wiped from dust and dirt. Rotary mechanism (tracker) I do not use because its value will never be discussed.
September began: little sun, many clouds - the production fell very much. On rainy days, she is simply insignificant (less than 50 watts hours per day).
Here is a schedule for electricity generation over the past 6 months. The new grid was installed in mid-May. By the way, if the day turns off the electricity in SNT, then the production also stops (this was several times this summer).
But the statistics of monthly development for this year. The most fundamental change is not that the production has increased, but in the fact that we have decreased tariffs in SNT - now SNT is equal to rural settlements and electricity has become 30% cheaper. While the replacement of the inverter raised the effectiveness of about 15%.
Let me remind you that the solar energy in the Moscow region has two problems:
1. Low tariffs for network electricity.
2. Small number of sunny days.
Energy generation for the summer of 2017 by months (in brackets to develop last year):
May - 20,98 (19,74) kWh
June - 18.72 (19.4) kWh
July - 22.72 (17,1) kWh
August - 22,76 (17,53) kWh
Currently, the total development for 2017 was 105 kWh. According to current tariffs (4.06 rubles / kWh), this is only 422 rubles. The main peak of the production ended, ahead cloud autumn and winter. Let's assume that the development for this year will be 500 rubles. And I invested 20,000 rubles to the equipment (Grid managed to replace without surcharge).
At the same time, I remind you that last year the production amounted to 650 rubles (due to the fact that the cost of electricity was 5.53 rubles / kWh). That is, despite the increase in the efficiency of the solar system, its payback period has increased from 32 to 40 years!
Even if you have been driving and imagine that in the Moscow region there will be no clouds in the Moscow region, then for the year with a 200 watt panels can be obtained only 240 kWh (theoretical maximum at the maximum efficiency of solar panels produced at present). Or about 1000 rubles. That is, the payback period will be 20 years old. And it is only in theory, because in real life it can not be. And these are the tariffs of the Moscow region, while in some regions of Russia electricity costs less than 2 rubles per kWh. And if you add batteries to the system, then this system will never pay off.
Therefore, the solar panels are cost-effective only where there is no network electricity, and its connection is either impossible in principle or it is very expensive.
And in order to save on the content of a country house there are many other, more efficient solutions: compliance with construction technology, the use of modern materials (aerated concrete, extrusion polystyrene foam), insulation without cold bridges, the use of a heat pump (air conditioner), the use of the night tariff.
In the current configuration, my energy-efficient house absolutely does not require air conditioning in the summer, the comfortable temperature is maintained in it (even if there is no one in it), and the annual energy consumption is about 7000 kWh. It is 3 times cheaper than the content of an apartment of a similar area in Moscow.
In more detail with all materials dedicated to the construction of a modern energy efficient house with their own hands, you can familiarize
Despite the fall in prices for oil, gas and coal, which made fossil fuels more competitive, investors did not reduce their activity in the field of renewable energy, since investments in the development of alternative energy sources and their cumulative power continue to demonstrate growth everywhere. Armenia also intends to emphasize renewable energy sources, planning in the next few years to significantly increase their share in the country's total energy balance. All projects in this area are designed for private investors, but the state makes every effort to create comfortable conditions for business.
This was briefly the main Messiage, which is the authorities of Armenia at the level of the head of the state of Serge Sargsyan and those responsible for the development of officials from the Ministry of Energy Infrastructures and Natural Resources transferred to potential investors who were gathered on January 25 at the renewable energy forum held within the framework of the 2017 Energy Week. The event was organized by the Foundation for Renewable Energy and Energy Saving Armenia in collaboration with the Center for Exhibitions Exhibitions.
If we speak the language of numbers, the share of alternative energy in the general energy balance, taking into account the increase in consumption volumes should be at least 30% by 2036. True, and now Armenia is within this figure, and the growing consumption in the introduction of new capacities will retain this ratio. So, by 2025, in Armenia, it is planned to build wind power plants with a total capacity of up to 200 MW. In the sphere of solar energy, by that time, projects for the construction of stations using photovoltaic technologies with a total capacity of up to 70 MW will be launched, of which 40 MW will appear by 2020. The construction of the Lori-Berdy and SHNOCHO HPP of the middle power, which will produce about 500 million kW / h of electricity, plus the Megrinskaya HPP electricity, which is provided to be launched in 2033, are also reflected in the total energy balance.
To improve the investment projects of the sphere a couple of years ago, we received legislative changes, according to which, instead of 15 years of mandatory purchase of electricity from the market, 20 years have been established for spheres of solar, wind and geothermal energy. However, according to geothermal energy in the long-term program for the development of the Energy System of Armenia, there is still a conservative forecast, calculated within the limits of only 25 MW on this type of renewable source. It will be possible to speak about large capacities if the expected energy potential of geothermal sources is finally confirmed in the Karkar region of the Syunik region, near Sisiana, where the height of 3100 meters from the sea level is underway to assess the potential of geothermal resources in this area.
Starting point - Masrik
However, the key theme of the current investment forum was the development of solar energy, the potential of which, taking into account the natural and climatic conditions of Armenia, is quite high.
The development of solar energy is one of the priorities for the development of the energy sector of Armenia, and we are confident that, given the decline in prices in the world market, we will be able to get competitive and low tariffs for the Armenian market, "Deputy Minister of Energy Infrastructures and Natural Resources Aik Harutyunyan appealed to the Forum participants.
The question is that, despite the significant cheapening of technologies in this area, the construction of solar stations, in particular, photovoltaic, requires considerable capital expenditures. Therefore, the government to reduce the impact on the end tariff for consumers in the sphere of solar energy intends to attract cheap credit resources from international financial institutions, and then provide these funds in tender conditions to interested investors.
And interested investors, judging by their number on the forum, there was a lot, and about a dozen of foreign companies have already expressed their readiness to participate in the tender for the construction of a solar photovoltaic station with a capacity of 55 MW in the area of \u200b\u200bMasrik Gegarkico region. The corresponding investment package was again represented during a separate meeting, which gathered several dozen representatives of companies from France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Holland, Switzerland, USA, China, Russia, UAE, Iran, and other countries.
At the same time, it was emphasized that the Armenian government, providing a license to the construction of solar stations, would also conclude an agreement with the investor that for 20 years undertakes to buy electricity that it produces, with a guarantee of preserving the minimum tariff. But it is not all. The investor can also calculate long-term and preferential financing and guarantees from the World Bank.
Not as with HPP
The new investment program is really quite attractive both from the point of view of potential investors and in the context of its impact on the development of solar energy in Armenia. In general, speaking of the development of this area, experts call on special care to approach the implementation of solar stations, while controlling the fulfillment of all norms - and social and environmental.
The future of the alternative energy of Armenia is undoubtedly behind the Sun, and I personally am an active supporter of the development of solar technologies in our country. But with all the relevance and attractiveness of this area, we must take into account all those challenges that may arise in the construction of solar stations, Edward Arzumanyan, who was in the mid-1990s by the Deputy Minister of Energy in Armenia, noted in a conversation with us. - The fact is that for the development of solar energy (at least under current technologies), quite large land plots are needed. Armenia, having a huge potential in this area, should be extremely careful of the choice of territories to accommodate stations so as not to harm areas having an agricultural significance. Just a few years ago, the development of small hydroelectric power plants in the country was stated. But, alas, as time has shown, many of them were built and subsequently exploited with violation of all the envisaged norms, which caused a wave of indignation among both the local population and ecologists. So, in the construction of solar stations, in no case cannot be allowed to repeat the errors that were committed in Armenia in recent years with the mass construction of small hydroelectric power plants.
Batteries, solar panels, electric cars and unmanned transport - all these technologies today occupy only in the region of 1% of the world market. If you want to make money on investments in a new economy - you should hurry. After 10-15 years, these technologies will become massive.
1. Energy and batteries and batteries
All owners of laptops or smartphones use Li-Ion batteries. From 1995 to 2010, the Li-Ion battery was raped on average by 14% per year (in dollars per kWh * h). 2009 became a turning point, as it began to use such batteries for auto industry and energy. Due to the growth of investment over the next 5 years, the cost of kW * h per year has already been 16%.
The cheapness of batteries occurs and due to the localization of production. For example, Tesla Model S uses approximately 7 thousand batteries, each of which can be compared with the battery for the smartphone. Typically, the production process looks like this: lithium is mined in Chile, Argentina or Australia, goes to China, cleared to 99 +%, then sent to Japan or Korea, there it is packaged and sent to California, where Tesla is mounted in the MODEL S.
To reduce the cost of producing such batteries by 30-50% for three years, TESLA builds Gigafactory in NevadaAnd in the near future plans to build even further 2-4 such plants.
One plant will have a power of 50 GW * h and will allow to produce up to half a million cars per year. For comparison, 100 such factories can satisfy the entire world need for electricity.
This is reduced to maintenance without technical innovation. Additional technological innovations can give at least 5% per year. The dynamics of reducing battery prices and an increase in electricity density stimulates the growth of the electric car market and solar energy. The power supply of electric vehicles is growing and the possibility of storing solar electricity, which comes unevenly during the day is growing.
In many ways, thanks to the success of Ilona's projects mask, competitors invest or redirect investment in relevant projects:
- In 2015. LG Chem. Announced the closure of the petrochemical project by $ 4.2 billion in Kazakhstan. These funds are sent to the production of batteries.
- Chinese company Byd., one of the largest manufacturers of electric vehicles (mostly for the local market) is going to add to the Chinese analogue of Gigafactory on average 6 GW capacities every year and to 2020 to reach the total power of 34 GW (Tesla plans to reach 35 GW to the same time) .
- Companies Foxconn. and LG Together they will add another 22 GW by 2020.
- Company Nissan. Add 4.5 GW.
- Samsung, SDI, TDK., Apple., Bosch. And others also plan to increase their battery production facilities and possibly electric vehicles.
2. Solar energy
From the mid-70s of the last century, the price of the solar panels fell more than 200 times. Since 1990, the number of installations of solar stations of different power grows twice every two years. With this pace, after 14 years, solar energy will be able to ensure all humanity of electricity.
A number of countries have already reached parity for the price between traditional and solar energy. It is expected that in the next few years the cost of solar energy in some places will be even lower than the cost of its transfer from the nearest power plants. In this case, traditional energy companies will have to supply electricity for free or even with a surcharge, to at least somehow compete with sunny.
In many markets for large consumers of electricity, solar energy is already cheaper than any traditional analogues. The cost of 3-5 cents per kWh * h is equivalent to $ 10 per barrel, or gas for $ 5 per cubic meter.
In all major world markets, the technological fracture in this area will happen in the early 20s. Solar Energy Plus Energy Storage will become cheaper energy transfer over the wires. At this point, there should be a breakthrough - exponential growth of new technologies for several years.
3. Electric vehicles
In order to figure out that Tesla Model S is not another toy for the rich type Ferrari and Porsche, but a new technological breakthrough, it is necessary to compare electric cars with cars with an internal combustion engine (DVS). In fact, everything is simple here.
The effectiveness of the internal combustion engine is about 25-40% (gasoline 20-30% and diesel 40%). This means that the remaining 60-80% go to overcoming the friction forces in the engine and on thermal energy, going to nowhere.
The electric motor has an efficiency of 80-95%, that is, 2-3.5 times more efficient. This fact itself does not yet provide a breakthrough. But if we take into account that the electricity is much cheaper, and the prices are less volatile than gasoline prices and diesel fuel, it turns out that the same by the characteristics of the electric vehicle will spend several times less electricity.
Depending on the country and the source of energy, these numbers can range from 3 to 10 times. When the technology potentially gives improvements 10 times, then with a high probability is a breakthrough. And if you also live in a house where solar panels are installed or any other renewable energy source, then you can refuel your car for almost free - spending will only go to the installation of the panels or windmills themselves.
Service
There is more than 2 thousand moving parts for the usual Machine Machine. In electric vehicles type Tesla Model S there are several dozen (20-30). The mechanics of the parts of the electric vehicle are much simpler and, accordingly, wear is small. In fact, it is necessary to change only the wheels, as in the usual car, and in 5-7 years, you may have to change the batteries.
If you consider the cost of purchase together with the cost of service and the cost of electricity, then the electric vehicle costs are less than cars with MOD, and in the future, the gap will only increase.
Due to small wear and ease of service, companies such as Tesla give a guarantee against endless mileage.
Fuel
The main factors affecting competitiveness are the price of oil and the price of the battery. For example, to achieve parity in the cost of the car at $ 30 / Barr, the price of the battery must drop to $ 150 / kW * h.
Yes, the battery remains the most expensive part of the electric vehicle. But, as already mentioned, since 2009 the price of the battery decreased by an average of 15-20% per year. Now the price continues to fall, it is expected that by 2020 the price will fall to $ 100 / kW. * H, which will allow electric vehicles directly (without subsidies) to compete with traditional cars.
There are a number of other important conditions, the observance of which will allow you to move the electric vehicles into the mass segment. The minimum stroke range must be at least 320 km, the recharging time should not exceed half an hour, and the average cost of the electric vehicle should fall to $ 30 thousand (on average, the new car in the United States costs about $ 33 thousand).
When all the conditions are observed, the electric vehicles will be supplanted almost all cars in DVS, as the digital cameras have almost completely supplanted the film (Kodak in 2000 had a revenue of $ 14 billion, and already submitted an application for bankruptcy).
Traditional automakers understand this:
- Company Ford. In the production of electric vehicles. In the near future, it plans to transfer almost all development to a new economy. Also Ford plans to go to the carcharing and taxis market, like Uber.
- GM. Invested $ 500 million in Lyft - one of the main Uber competitors. In addition, GM bought a company-developer of Cruise unmanned cars for $ 1 billion.
- Besides Tesla And BYD, they prepare or already released their models of electric cars GM, BMW, Nissan, Kia, Ford - with a distance of the course around 300 km and the price in the area of \u200b\u200b$ 30-40 thousand (in the basic configuration without taking subsidies).
However, in addition to the apparent leaders at the moment, special attention should be paid to other technological companies (since, as history shows, most breakthroughs are not going there, where all this is waiting for). So, a number of large companies that have never been engaged in the production of cars, they went to this market.
For example, Foxconn (the largest iphone collector) in 2014 invested more than $ 800 million in the development of its own electric vehicle, costing $ 15 thousand). And in March of this year, Foxconn announced its plans to invest $ 1.4 billion in the battery manufacturer for CATL electrocars.
It is expected that by 2025 the production of electric vehicles will be able to meet the needs of the entire global market. And since there are technical capabilities on an industrial scale to redo the majority of cars with internal combustion engines in electric vehicles, the process of mass transition to electric vehicles may occur before.
But there is an even more serious breakthrough, which in symbiosis with the storage of energy, renewable energy and electric vehicles can have a tremendous influence on the entire global economy. This is unmanned transport.
4. Unmanned transport
All major autocontracers are aggressively invest in unmanned transport. Many of them have already announced for 2018-2020. Release of a 4-level car, which means that these machines never require people to control.
Cases:
- BMW. He began to aggressively promote his strategy for the implementation of autonomous transport, demonstrating the autonomous version of I8 at the CES 2016 exhibition. There BMW officially announced that it plans to make all the machines of its electric vehicle line (Series I) autonomous.
- Cars companies Tesla Already 90% autonomous and will be 100% autonomous in 2018.
- Company Bosch. Build a plant for the production of chips for unmanned vehicles worth 1 billion euros. The opening of the plant is planned in 2019.
- Uber. Also actively embedded in drones. For a company of type Uber, the development of unmanned vehicles will reduce the cost of a taxi trip by 90% - it is so much now on average picks up a driver for his trip.
When will this breakthrough occur and how much will it change the world around? In order to understand this, it is worthwhile to bring examples of the harassment of parts necessary for unmanned driving.
Lidar is one of the most expensive parts necessary for an autonomous ride. This is a rotating cylinder, which is usually located on the roof. Lidar makes millions of measurements per second to "see" the surrounding environment. When in 2012, Google announced an additional price for parts needed for its unmanned car, worth $ 150 thousand, then the cost of Lidar was exactly half of this amount.
Now Google managed to reduce the cost of Lidar to $ 7 thousand, that is, the price reduction was 90% compared with 2012. The cost continues to decline, including due to growing competition, as well as thanks to the ever-growing computational capabilities of processors.
At the same exhibition CES 2016 NVIDIA introduced NVIDIA DRIVE PX 2, the second generation of graphics processors specially intended for autonomous cars. Companies such as Baidu, Tesla, Bosch and Toyota collaborate with NVIDIA. The optimism of investors associated with the early NVIDIA developments in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence allowed us to take off the company's shares from the beginning of 2017 by 64%.
All this indicates the reduction of technology for unmanned cars and an increase in their availability that will only grow. In addition, by 2030, the concept of private ownership of the car will come out of use - due to the development of the concept of "car as a service". Due to this, the total amount of passenger cars will fall at 70-80% by 2030, when all the new transport will be electric and unmanned.
Markets that are waiting for the redistribution
As a result of innovation, a huge number of markets are waiting for transformation and redistribution. In addition to classic automotive, here are some of the most obvious (although such markets are much more, especially with regard to the spread of IOT technologies).
Oil market
Now the transport sector consumes more than 60% of petroleum products. With a mass transition to electric vehicles, the need for such an amount of oil disappears. A very small number of power plants is working on oil, due to the high cost. In the transition period, gas power plants will be in demand, which, in turn, after 2030-2040 will also cease to be needed in such quantities.
Power plants
Power plants operating from fossil fuel sources, including nuclear power plants. Constantly cheaper alternative energy sources (especially the sun and wind) in symbiosis with energy storage devices will allow to abandon traditional power plants. There will be a decentralization of the entire energy industry. Most of the households will be able to switch to electricity to ensure. First of all, people living in their own homes.
Parkovka
In the case of a mass transition to unmanned transport, the cost of parking within the city will almost disappear. Now the car is used 4-5% of the time, the rest of the time in the parking lot. When the era of unmanned vehicles occurs, 80-90% of the time will be used.
The property
At the venue of the parking lot, you can build various infrastructure. But at the same time, thanks to a smaller number of cars, life in the suburbs will be much more attractive, which can cause a real estate crisis within the city.
Logistics
Unmanned transport will save a huge amount of funds, removing the driver, and at the same time seriously optimizing the entire industry.
Insurance
Since more than 90% of accidents are caused by a human factor, then removing the person from behind the wheel, we thus reduce the risk of accidents, which will greatly affect the business model of insurance companies. Many are probably decided to abandon the insurance.
