Unstable economy. Concept of macroeconomic instability economic instability that makes the economy vulnerable

The article describes that the analysis of instability in the financial market was carried out, the causes and forms of instability in the market were revealed. The article also contains a study of the theory of an efficient market. The problems of its use in modern conditions have been identified. The causes of instability are considered financial instruments. The hypothesis of the rational behavior of traders in the market, which has a direct impact on the occurrence of an unstable market situation. As a result, the conclusion was obtained that the chaotic change in the price of the market seems to be a consequence of "random wandering" of value characteristics. The paper revealed that random wandering seems to be a special stochastic process, which can show both completely unpredictable results and be quite predictable. About this feature of the financial series, presented in the financial market, in modern scientific literature is indicated only indirectly. The article defines that this is a special phenomenon. This phenomenon is partly described only by the Gauss theory.

financial market

instability in the financial market

financial instruments

theory of efficient markets

risk of financial instruments

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3. Yakimkin V.N. Segmentation of the financial market. - M.: Omega-L, 2006. - 656 p.

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7. Bachelier L. Thorie de la Spéculation: / L. bachelier // Annales Scientifiques De L'École Normale Supérieure. - 1990. - Vol. 3, No. 17. - R. 21-86.

The causes of economic instability are seen in the structure of the formation and functioning of the financial market. According to V. N. Yakimkin, financial markets, in fact, are a "an enormous settlement chamber, where mutual mechanisms are working through the relevant price relations, in order to meet the needs of the subjects acting on them." Therefore, we can assume that all markets included in the financial market as some subways are systems in which the mass of participants interact with each other and respond to external information in order to determine the best market status to enter or exit economic System. In particular, the instruments in the financial market can have a different nature: it can be securitiesdiffering by type (stocks, bonds), currency, cash assets or financial derivatives of these major instruments. Having considered the pricing procedure in the financial market, we can make an assumption about its unpredictability. This makes it necessary a more detailed study of the structural features of the functioning of the financial market.

Suppose that the financial market is represented by many financial instruments with which market participants constantly conduct all sorts of operations. This is a lot we can portray in the form of a temporary series. A further study of such a temporary series will lead us to another numerical row, which consists of a set of numbers representing changes in the prices of financial assets for a certain period. The study of this series allows us to conclude: prices for financial assets behave more unpredictable. As noted by R.N. Manteny and G.Yu. Wall, "At first glance, an amazing paradox is found: the dynamic characteristics of the time series, such as the price of a financial instrument, in essence, indistinguishable from the characteristics of the stochastic process." One of the main reasons for such a price behavior is that the pricing mechanism in the financial market involves a significant impact of the risk component. Almost all financial assets on any markets subject to the laws of the financial market are subject to the laws of the functioning of the arbitration model. This model involves the purchase and sale of one and the same financial asset in order to profit due to the difference in various financial markets. Such transactions can be held both in the same market and different, and these markets may be in different countriesah, which indicates the internationalization and globalization processes in the financial market. Such behavior of market participants leads its participants to the temporary establishment of an efficient price.

So, the financial market at a certain time was considered a super-efficient market system. However, it should be noted that the market efficiency in modern conditions and with existing financial markets is the area of \u200b\u200bfiction. Despite the fact that the markets are very complex systems that accumulate information about the appropriate assets in the form of temporary prices of prices, the concept of which markets are highly effective in part of the definitions of the most rational prices of traded assets in terms of the definitions of the most rational prices of traded assets. This hypothesis (hypothesis of an efficient market) was presented in the mid-1960s. Theoretical basis For the theory of an efficient market was the work of L. Bashchery. In the future, P. Samuelson explored this topic. In 1965, he formulated an efficient market hypothesis applicable to market conditions and mathematically proved that the expected prices change randomly. Using the hypothesis of rational behavior of traders and taking into account market efficiency, Samuelson was able to demonstrate that Yt + 1 is directly related to the size of prices Y0, Y1, YT, and the connection of these values \u200b\u200bcan be described by the following stochastic process:

where E is profitability.

However, despite the fact that equation (1) suggests a probabilistic condition, the prices in the financial market are also affected by an intuitive-probabilistic model of a fair game. This leads to an unstable change in prices for financial assets. So, in the understanding of the player (investor), the game seems to be fair when the winnings and losses are mutually compensated and balastively each other. For example, the expected investor accumulation is equal to its current assets. It means that the conclusion from this formula seems that any price changes cannot be predicted at a similar historical number of price changes over past periods. In the middle of the twentieth century, a sufficient number of studies were conducted on the process of price change in the financial market, which showed that the correlation of prices in this perspective was very small.

In the 1980s. It was proved that the use of information presented in a temporary series can predict profits in the short term. Even the study of the temporary range of profits / price or dividends cannot give accurate data on the yield of the asset.

Thus, empirical observations and research results, theoretical developments are shown with certainty that price changes in the financial market is difficult to predict if they proceed only from the data of the time series of price changes. In other words, the theory of effective markets did not bring the expected result.

Any financial time series looks unpredictable and, in fact, it is impossible to predict its future values. This does not mean that the financial series does not react to anything that its prices can never change. Rather, on the contrary - a time range of prices in the financial market and, as a result, prices for financial assets carry a very large amount of the so-called "incompressible" information. In this regard, the existing time series has some features:

In connection with the huge information in this series, it is very difficult, it is almost impossible to distinguish an impact on the price of fundamental economic factors (for example, we can assume that the price of a financial instrument depends to a greater extent on the internal market factors, external factors are of a slight value);

The complexity of the prediction of the asset price is not connected with the lack of information, but rather, on the contrary, with its excess;

The entire structure of the financial market does not imply at least some binding to the real sector of the economy or correlation with it, which may cause price bubbles in the market.

The only exception to this series may be the market of loyalty, consisting of assets that grow in their value thanks to market conditions, which are created in the relevant markets (the market of gold, diamonds, emeralds), i.e. Markets precious metals and precious stones. Although recently the growth dynamics of the value of gold indicates a very large proportion of the "hot" capital in this market.

Returning to the peculiarities of the pricing of financial assets, we can state that the prices of assets are formed taking into account the patterns of random wandering, as well as on the basis of Levi stochastic processes.

For example, the financial market is committed to its effectiveness, while he seeks to take the position of an efficient market. Effective market is an idealized system. Real financial markets are only approximately effective. We can only assume "ideal" conditions, i.e. The existence of a completely efficient market, and inside this paradigm only to develop theories and conduct their empirical check. The accuracy of the data obtained will directly depend on the validity of the assumptions made.

For example, the concept of an efficient market in relation to financial markets will be of value in the modeling of financial markets. Taking these conditions as basic, we can proceed to the study of random processes observed in the financial markets.

For example, financial instruments are characterized by the emergence of various risks associated with stock operations. A number of researchers regard it as a kind of risky situation.

First of all, the mathematical features of the economic instruments of the financial market should be considered. Consider the sum of N of independent variables of identically distributed random variables XI:

Sn ≡ x1 + x2 + ... + xn. (2)

In this case, Sn ≡ x (nΔt) should be considered as the sum of N of random variables or as the position of the wandering particles at the time T \u003d nΔt, where n is the number of single steps made; ΔT - the time interval between adjacent steps. So, similarly distributed random variables XI can be characterized by some moments. Similar values \u200b\u200bwill not be independently dependent on i.

The simplest example of random wandering may be the distribution carried out by random steps s size. In this case, XI may randomly receive + s or -s values.

In particular, both the first and second cases for a similar process can be described as follows:

E (xi) \u003d 0 and (3)

Conducting further research, we will come to the conclusion that for such a random wandering, the amount of yield can be calculated as follows:

From equality (4) it follows, if you apply the limit transition formulas, then the yield can be written in the above form.

So, instability in the financial market occurs as the result of the self-expressing process. Such a peculiarity of price behavior in the financial market is characteristic of any segment of the financial market. In particular, in the market, we see the situation of the random wandering of prices for financial assets. Depending on the procedure for determining the price of a financial asset (especially this concerns the risk model that affects the pricing) prices in the financial market are subject to chaotic movement, having a dependence far from market factors.

In modern theory, there are well-known risk determination techniques:

3) vare \u003d varα (x - e (x));

4) CVare \u003d CVARα (X - E (X)).

These techniques are used to calculate both the risk of individual financial assets and risk when investing in portfolios, composed of assets that appeal in the financial market. We again return to the features of financial assets, which are in the asymmetrical behavior of assets in the market, and to determine the wandering amount of profitability in the financial market. Of the equality (4), we can obtain a limit transition formula:

Now we can conclude that the dispersion of any process is presented in the form of a certain linear process that increases with an increase in the number of steps. So, price behavior can be considered as a limit transition of random wandering.

The limit transition of a random walk in the financial market can be recorded by the form of a certain stochastic inert process, which, under the condition N - ∞ and ΔT nΔt, will strive for the ultimate value. In this case, we can do the following transformation:

(7)

In this case, we have convergence at n - ∞ and Δt - 0 at s2 \u003d dΔt, and in this case the formula will be presented as follows:

E (x2 (t)) \u003d dt. (eight)

Such a linear dependence of the dispersion S2 (T) from T is submitted to one of the typical characteristics of price behavior in the financial market. In such a situation, there are almost all known market systems, where prices are subject to random wander. Not an exception and financial market. This addiction is one of the types of diffusion process, characterized by the possibility of price changes in the financial markets. This stochastic process we can fully attribute to the category of Wiener processes.

For example, this random wandering of prices on the market can be described in the form of a Gaouth process, i.e. The following statement is applicable in the financial market: Random Monastery is equivalent to the Gaouth Process, i.e. chaotic wandering of particles. Such wandering prices we can present in the form of a certain trend process.

In different markets included in the financial market, we see the uneven changes, i.e. The actual wandering of prices of financial assets, all these changes are represented by one of the components of the Gausov process.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the feature of the formation of prices in the financial market is that the assets in this market change the prices in a stochastic order, which seems characteristic of the functioning of the Gausov process. This feature is characteristic of the pricing procedure in any financial market and is the main cause of the instability of prices for financial assets.

Reviewers:

Ivanitsky V.P., D.E., Professor at the Department of Financial Markets and Banking of the Ural State Economic University, Yekaterinburg;

Maramygin M.S., D.E., Professor, Head of the Department of Financial Markets and Banking of the Ural State Economic University, Yekaterinburg.

The work went on the editor 01/16/2013.

Bibliographic reference

Strelkov E.V. The reasons for the emergence of economic instability in the financial market // Fundamental studies. - 2013. - № 6-1. - pp. 141-144;
URL: http://fundamental-research.ru/ru/article/view?id\u003d31431 (date of handling: 03/18/2020). We bring to your attention the magazines publishing in the publishing house "Academy of Natural Science"
5.4 Economic instability.
The market economy has a well-known instability, the instability of economic development. However, this instability is not evil that inevitably leads to the catastrophe and collapse of the economic system. With the phenomena of economic instability should be considered and taken into account in the economic policy of the state.
The task of economic policy is to achieve the stabilization of the functioning and development of the economy, thereby providing a healthy framework for social and political stability.
Among the numerous forms of economic instability are the most significant:

gDP level

Economic cycles
Economic development in a market economy implies a consistent change of production periods of production, the level of GDP, employment of their recession.
The regularity of these consecutive alternations of lifts and recession gives economic development cyclic nature.
Economic cycles are periodic fluctuations in the level of economic activity in society.
The first economic crisis with which the countdown is conducted by periodically repeated crises, was recorded in England in 1825. Then crisis phenomena began in other countries, repeating every 8-12 years. In 1873, the economic crisis simultaneously began in a number of countries in the world. It was the first in the history of the cycles of the global economic crisis.
In economic theory allocate:

- Small cycles with a period of 3-4 years, which are associated with fluctuations in stocks of products.
It should be noted that all these types of cycles are superimposed by one on another.
We will look at and characterize the main phases of the middle (industrial) cycle.
Phases of the middle (industrial) cycle
The cycle is a period of time during which the sequential change of the following phases occurs: a decline, depression, revival and lifting.
The decline starts with the peak of the previous cycle and continues to the lowest point of the cycle.
This phase is characterized by a sharp reduction in business activity. Firms suddenly discover that they overestimated the predicted demand for their products and are not able to sell produced goods at the same time.
To split the excessive excess, they are forced to reduce prices for their products. Firms are huge losses, they are not able to return the loans taken and pay interest on them. It begins and applies throughout the economy of a wave of bankruptcies. Without the possibility of selling already produced products, enterprises reduce production volume. Of course, no speech about expanding production is no longer coming, and, as a result, enterprises reduce the volume of investment in production, the demand for equipment falls.
The decline of production causes the wave of dismissal of workers, unemployment is growing. The incomes of the population fall. Due to revenue, as well as due to the desire of people, to postpone part of these revenues "for a black day", the costs of the population on consumer goods fall, which means that the demand for consumer goods and services is reduced.
Reduced the standard of living. Panic reigns in society and universal pessimism. We particularly note that during this period interest rates on loans grow: firms seek to reload money to avoid bankruptcy, there is a universal chase for money, the demand for free cash grows. In addition, banks themselves seek to establish higher bets, since the risk of non-repayment with their loans.
Perhaps the most difficult was the decline in 1929 - 1933, which went down in history under the name "Great Depression", then the United States, estimated by economists, was thrown back for 146 years, the national income fell almost 2 times, the per capita income fell By 30%, the unemployment rate reached 25%.
Depression: Having reached the lowest point, the economy is in this state for some time.
The production decline almost stopped, and production, and employment are at the lowest level. Enterprises avoid long-term investments, the population does not make expensive purchases. Everyone is in a state of insecurity, fearing begin new things.
However, gradually commercial stocks are solved, the fall in consumer and investment demand is stopped, the prices of goods stabilize. Since the demand for money has now fell much, then there is a decrease in interest rates on loans to the lowest level.
And the business world is slowly starting to revive: enterprises who managed to survive the crisis, begin to update the equipment, acquiring more modern techniques (benefit loans are now more accessible), introduce new technologies, carry out measures to improve production efficiency. Their goal is to reduce costs to make a profit in low prices for products.
As a rule, without the participation of the state, the exit from the state of depression proceeds very slowly, but, reaching the bottom, the production gradually begins to gain a move and a revival comes to replace depression.
Revival - begins with a low point of depression and ends when the economy reaches a pre-crisis peak.
The starting enhancement of economic activity forms the expectation of raising current income. This is manifested in a gradual increase in consumer demand. In response, production begins to increase, primarily due to the involvement of free capacities, employment is growing and, as a result, income (profit, salary) are growing.
Revenues grow both nominal and real. People have the opportunity to acquire the goods they need. As a result, there is a further increase in demand. At some point it becomes clear that expanding production without large-scale investment is no longer possible and their rapid growth begins. Enterprises have all the conditions for investment growth: there is an opportunity to expand production by relatively inexpensive loans and there is a motive - profit growth. Investment demand is growing and at the same time expanding the production of almost all goods and services.
The expansion of production contributes to the emergence of new jobs, an increase in demand for labor and, accordingly, employment growth. The well-being of people is growing, in society, pessimistic moods are replaced by optimistic.
Economists note that at this stage the growth of demand overtakes the growth of the proposal and in the end the cumulative demand exceeds the aggregate proposal.
It should be noted that, since there is an increase in demand for all types of resources, including money resources, then begins simple interest rates.
Lifting: comes after the phase of revitalization and continues until his peak.
At this stage, "Lynx goes into a gallop", there is an acceleration of economic development, which is manifested in the fact that there are new products, new enterprises, investments are growing, interest rates, prices, salaries, employment are growing. Part of the demand begins to wear a speculative character: many people have a desire to purchase goods so that they are further beneficial to resell them, because prices for most of the goods grow. Under these purchases, large loans are taken, that is, partially demand is maintained with loans. When approaching the peak - the highest point of the lifting, the economy overheating occurs. Loans are becoming more expensive, markets grow and inevitably occurs such a moment when the whole system collapses, as a card house, and again the economy is in a state of a deep crisis.
In the overwhelming majority of cases, each subsequent "peak" turns out, in terms of level higher than the previous one, which reflects the overall growth of the economy, its translational development
A sharp transition from lifting to the decline, economists are associated with the fact that the growth of production is purposefully and systematically organized by manufacturers, and the demand of spontaneously formed in the market by buyers and depends on the set of random factors. And since demand can easily decrease, it is precisely this occurs during the recession period: a total offer is more aggregate demand.
Of course, the crisis for the country's economy is a great test, it carries a lot of negative moments, but we note the positive side of the economic crisis, which is in the recovery of the economy. According to the principle of natural selection during the decline period, ineffective enterprises have a high level of costs. "The survivors" enterprises carry out innovations that lead to an increase in efficiency, and in the future and to the increase in production. New technologies come to replace new technologies.
Currently, decals in countries with a developed market economy have become less deep (up to 2% of GDP) and less prolonged (6-12 months). There is an obvious violation of the classic cycle, the cycle phases have become more blurred, some phases are completely falling out. Now in the recession phase is not observed lower prices, on the contrary, price increases. This phenomenon is called stagflation.
Stagflation is the simultaneous increase in inflation and decline in production, accompanied by the growth of unemployment.
The appearance of stagflation is explained by the fact that the state has a monopoly on the issue of money. The importance of production monopolies, which prefer not to reduce prices, but to reduce the volume of production; Trade unions that do not allow decline in the labor market wages.
Causes of economic cycles
Among the economists there is no consensus about the causes of this complex phenomenon. Each economic School In its own way explains the nature of economic cycles.
Some economists claim that cycles are associated with the impact of external factors. They call such factors as large discoveries in science and achievements in technique, natural cataclysms (droughts, floods), war, revolution and other political shocks, fluctuations in population number, etc. There is a theory that explains the cycles by changing the ratio of pessimistic and optimistic sentiment in society. . There is even a theory that binds the dynamics of the economic cycle with changes in the configuration of solar spots.
Other economists believe that the explanation of the cycle lies in the internal processes occurring in the economy, and external factors are minor. They believe that crises occur due to the fact that there are contradictions between the rigid organization of production and the unregulated market that the natural development of the market leads to the violations of the market equilibrium, and this in turn leads to the emergence of industry imbalances. What crisis can also cause failures in the monetary sphere and mistakes in state budget policy.
However, almost all economists agree that:
- fluctuations in the level of economic activity is a consequence of the deviation of the economy from the equilibrium state;
- investments in real capital are crucial in the cycle movement, first of all in machines and equipment;
- The state can actively influence the cycle mechanism using budget policy methods for this, i.e. Adjusting its income and expenses, as well as methods of monetary policy, i.e. Adjusting interest rates and amount of money supply.
To implement the regulation of the economy, the state conducts targeted economic
5.2 State policy to stabilize the economy

The main goal of the socio-economic policy of the state is to ensure economic and social stability and the promotion of the country's economic development. This common goal can be specified in the following goals:

Economic Development Stabilization Policy includes three components: anticyclic policies, policies for achieving and maintaining full employment and anti-inflation policy. At the same time, each of these areas of stabilization policy cannot be carried out isolated from other areas.

To achieve these goals, the state applies the following methods of exposure to the economy.
1) Administrative methods are based on state power and include prohibition measures, permits and coercion. The fact is that the state has special rights that other actors in the economy do not have, primarily this right of coercion. The state has the right, for example, to make you pay taxes, and if you refuse, it can deprive you of property and even put in prison. To monitor compliance with the rules established by the state, it creates special bodies, for example, a tax police. Administrative methods are methods of direct impact on economic entities.
In countries with a developed market economy, these methods are used by the state mainly to ensure environmental protection (for example, a ban on the emission of harmful substances); Guarantees of minimally acceptable conditions for existence for low-income groups (for example, the introduction of minimum wages), as well as to combat shadow business (for example, the requirement to provide information on income in the event of the acquisition of real estate) and others.
2) Economic methods are associated with the creation of additional material incentives or possible financial punishments, for example, in the form of fines and are methods of indirect impact on economic entities. Economic methods are divided into methods of monetary regulation and budgetary regulation methods.
When it comes to providing preferential loans to producers of products that you
Low percentage (fee for credit) and for long terms, or when the state changes the amount of money in the economy, using the methods accessible to it, then this means that the state resorts to measures of monetary policy.
Monetary policy is a set of measures in the field of monetary circulation and loan aimed at regulating the economy.
When the state for regulating the economy uses budget funds, for example, reduces taxes for individual manufacturers or introduces subsidies for the production of particularly important products, then these are already fiscal policy measures.
Budget policy is a set of measures to change the volume of income and budget expenditures in order to regulate the economy.
3) Another comprehensive state regulation tool is the state with
etc.................

Economic instability and unemployment

Economic situation. As is known, the economy of any country is developing cyclical growth occurs not evenly, but is interrupted by periods of economic instability (growth of unemployment, inflation, the fall of the GNP, etc.). Specialists allocate four phases of the economic cycle of peak - in the economy there is full employment, and production works at full capacity, the price levels tends to increase, and the growth of business activity is terminated further follows the decline - production and employment are reduced, but prices are not amenable to lower prices. The recession point is characterized by the fact that production and employment, reaching the lowest level, begin to get out again from the bottom. Finally, the level of production increases on the phase of revitalization, and employment increases. Despite the common phases for all phases, separate economic

The neoclassical system was a logically connected and detailed developed theoretical concept, but economic instability (crises, unemployment) fits poorly. She was not able to explain the causes and

In each particular case, these problems will be solved in their own way. For example, in the Republic of Belarus, the labor market is characterized by the presence of a large number of ineffective jobs and their slow updating, insufficient investment in the creation of new jobs, which further aggravates the expansion of the demand and supply of labor in the labor market. Allow these problems can be possible only by coordinating the needs of the labor market in labor with the structure of workplaces in the economy and the training system of personnel. And this requires certain steps from the state to enhance innovative investment activities, creating favorable conditions for the development of small businesses and entrepreneurship, updating and improving the structure of jobs, creating new jobs by improving the development of the service sector. Sustainable development of small businesses contributes to the creation of new jobs, as well as reduces the dependence of the employment of the population from large economically unstable and non-prospective enterprises, reduces the risk of unemployment. The share of employed in the field of year is reduced from the year, and in the service sector increases. For

The relevance of employment and unemployment problems is explained by the fact that, first of all, ensuring full employment belongs to the number of the most important goals of the national economy, secondly, unemployment is a form of manifestation of the instability of economic development. Unemployment has negative economic and social consequences. The study of employment and unemployment problems contributes to identifying reasons for unemployment, developing effective employment policies. 84.

From the previous chapter, we learned about the aggregate demand and the cumulative proposal, they also got acquainted with the models of macroeconomic equilibrium. But macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather an amazing accident, an exception confirming the rule of the market economy is unstable. Economic history The last two centuries gives us a great many examples of this instability. During the periods of successful industrial development and universal economic prosperity, there were always periods of recession, accompanied by a drop in production and unemployment.

For the high performance of the market mechanism, in addition to a clear outline of the borders of state intervention in its operation, many other tasks must be solved. First of all, one should neutralize the effect of such destabilizing the economy of factors as inflation, monopolism and forced unemployment. Their occurrence is directly related to the functioning of the market, which himself, without the help of the state, is not able to lead with them. The activity of the state to strengthen the market mechanism is not limited to the struggle with the factors of economic instability. It should also consider the state stimulation of free enterprise, denationalization of property and privatization, the formation of optimal tax policies and much more, which is under government and without which the competitive market system cannot work normally.

In the fourth base section dedicated to the definition of release volumes (ch. 12-18), we return to the problem of economic fluctuations and the role of the state in economic stabilization. We will give a description of the Keynesian theory of determining the volume of production, especially allocation of an open economy. Here we will talk about a possible compromise between unemployment and inflation, as well as about the role in the formation of a macroeconomic situation and various shocks - in the emergence of instability in the economy.

In Russia, over the period of the reform course, the unemployment rate (taking into account the permanent employment and on vacations on the administration initiative) reached more than 20% of the active population. The critical, threshold value of the unemployment rate in international practice (with a normal system of social protection of the unemployed) is considered to be 10%. During the reform period, as the experience of a number of countries shows, its growth is possible to 15-20%, but for a period not more than 3-5 years. In the current situation in Russia, unemployment growth, which is a factor in the deepening of poverty and social instability in society, turns into one of the most significant threats to economic security and social stability. On the one hand, the narrowing of families with the growth of unemployment, causing degradation of consumption, can not not be a factor in the impoverishment of the population, but to be inhibition of economic growth. G of the other side, increasing the level of unemployment leads to an increase in crime and the number of suicides.

In a sense, the requirement for the government to balance the budget during the period equal to the calendar year is arbitrary. However, the alternation of the seasons and the firmly established practice of financial statements gives serious grounds for such a requirement, and the practice of business, in which receipts and expenses are regularly balanced with certain deviations, even more reinforce it. If large economic oscillations can be prevented using other measures, then such balancing is best produced throughout the year, traditional for the preparation of the term budgets. If we assume that the regulation of the money supply by competition between private currencies does not really provide not only the stability of the value of money, but also the stability of the economic situation, the argument about the need for a state deficit to reduce unemployment to be approved that government control over money is needed to heal the disease, which he himself caused. It is not clear why in general in conditions of stable money from the government should have the right to spend money more than it has. And, of course, more importantly, government expenses do not cause overall instability than to take a bulky government apparatus (if you make an unlikely assumption that it works on time) to counter any weakening of economic activity.

The thesis is also put forward about the allegedly voluntary nature of unemployment. However, if unemployment is of such a character, then why it fluctuates depending on the phase of the economic cycle of the workplace, employees are very picky and strive for the most profitable work. However, in this case, it is not clear why such workers can be 4-5%, then all 15% but the main question that supporters of the neoclassical approach cannot answer - why all employees are not available in the event of exceeding their supply over demand labor at a lower price

The growing gap between the demand for food and the possibilities of sustainable production in the world is accompanied by price instability and competitive struggle in the global market, can essentially destabilize the world economy as a whole. The situation may be aggravated by the interconnectedness of economic, environmental, social and political problems, which leads to an increase in unemployment, reduction of income of the population, malnutrition, increasing incidence and reduction in the quality of life of the population. For example, the annual fish in the world in the world is about 83 million tons. However, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN, about 70% of world fish stocks are exhausted as a result of their intensive exploitation, the recovery process is extremely slow.

The thesis is also put forward about the allegedly voluntary nature of unemployment. However, if unemployment is voluntary, then why it fluctuates depending on the phase of the economic cycle, the thesis on finding a workplace as a phenomenon causing the instability of the market is put forward. Its essence lies in the fact that employees are very legible and strive for the most profitable work. However, in this case, it is not clear why such workers are that 4-5%, then all 15% but the main question that cannot answer

For economic risk-proactivity, as well as security, not the indicators themselves are important, but their thresholds. Threshold values \u200b\u200bare the limit values, the non-compliance with which prevents the normal course of development various elements reproduction leads to the formation of negative destructive trends. As an example (with respect to the inner threats), it is possible to name the unemployment rate, income gap between the most and least secured groups of the population, inflation rates. The approach to their extremely permissible value indicates the increase in the threat of socio-economic stability of society, and the exceeding the limit, or threshold values \u200b\u200b- on the company's accession to the zone of instability and social conflicts, that is, about the real undermining of economic development. From the point of view of external threats, an extremely permissible level of public debt can act as indicators, the preservation or loss of position in the world market, the dependence of the national economy and its most important sectors (including the defense industry) from the import of foreign technicians, components, products or raw materials.

Indicator The number of registered crimes per 100,000 inhabitants. Why this indicator is important in a low standard of living and unemployment entail a low level of culture, a drop of morals and morality. In proportion to the drop in the standard of living, the crime rate is growing. The insufficiency of funding funds to the content of law enforcement agencies entails a reduction in the number of the composition of the patrol and inspection service, which in turn increases the risk of every resident of the city to become a victim of a crime. Crime growth is the result of many unresolved economic, political and social problems of society. The indicator of the number of crimes shows the level of social tensions and instability in the territory. It is used to assess the state and trends in the dynamics of crime in the region and, accordingly, the fight against crime and reduce criminalization in society. This indicator shows the number of all registered crimes per 100,000 people. The negative dynamics of the indicator characterizes the sustainable development of the region.

Let's start with the consideration of three well-known facts characterizing the growth of Latin American countries over the past 20 years. The fact is that the farms of many of these countries were solely dynamic, showing a high pace of industrial growth, but that this high growth rate was extremely unstable, systematically aggravated the inequality in income distribution. The best example gives Brazil, where the average annual growth rate of GNP in the period 1965-1980. amounted to 8.5%, but in 1980-1982. fell to minus 0.3%. The share of the income of the richest 20% of the country's population increased from 54% in 1960 to 62% in 1970 and 63% in 1980. The second fact is that, despite significant vertical mobility, the level of real salary of unqualified workers during long time was not able to significantly climb, and industrial growth even during the period of economic booms could not accept the excessive excess

One of the defining factors in the modern world becomes instability. The traditional raw materials markets change, the amplitude of fluctuations in currency systems reaches dangerous limits, the losses from unemployment becomes more and more significant.

Paul Samuelson

Cyclic development of the economy. Types of cycles. Cycle phases and dynamics of economic indicators. Structural crises.

Purchasing power of money. Essence of inflation. Causes and basic forms of inflation: moderate, galloping and hyperinflation; Open and depressed inflation. The concept of inflation expectations. Inflation demand and inflation costs. Stagflation. Measuring the inflation rate using the price index.

Economic and social consequences of inflation. Adaptation and anti-inflation policy.

Unemployment, its essence and causes. The main types of unemployment: friction, structural, cyclic, their distinctive features and methods of partial overcoming.

The problem of complete employment. The concept of "natural norm" unemployment. Norm of unemployment and excess unemployment. Employment indicators. Productive employment.

Socio-economic losses from unemployment. The essence of the OUCEN law. Directions and types of state regulation of the labor market.

Relationship of unemployment and inflation. The essence of the Phillips curve and the boundaries of its practical application.

From the previous topic, you already know that economic growth is not identical to economic development. On the path of growth of the national product, there are periods of sharp acceleration, accompanied by raising prices and inflation, and periodides of the decline in production and employment, when economic growth slows down or even stops. These disorders of macroeconomic equilibrium are considered economic science as manifestations. instability of the economy.

As practice shows, this uneven development of market economy is characterized by rhythm: acceleration and slowdown in economic growth alternate in some rhythm, forming economic cycle.

Economic cycle - These are oscillations in macroeconomics, consisting of alternating recession and lifts of general business activity.

The tendency of the market economy to repetition of economic phenomena was seen by economists in the first half of the XIX century. They drew attention to the frequency of such phenomena as an increase or decrease in demand, an increase in production or its stagnation.

A certain sequence in alternating these phenomena has emerged. The problem had so much importance for economic development that she did not bypass by almost any of the leading economists. Recognizing the objective nature of the economic cycle, economists propose to study this phenomenon through the analysis of internal and external factors affecting the nature and duration of the cycle.

TO external factors Cycles researchers include such non-economic phenomena as fluctuations in solar activity, war, revolution, earthquake, population migration. The impact on the cycle can render the opening of large mineral deposits, scientific and technical discoveries and innovations.

Such large innovations, like railways, aviation, cars, computers, have a great impact on consumer spending and investment. But such global innovations appear very irregularly and therefore cause economic instability. Some economists see the reason for fluctuations in the economy in the ratio of optimism and pessimism of the participants of the business life, i.e., psychological factors of the cyclicity of the economy are distinguished.

Theories explaining the economic cycle of external factors by calling exterpex Unlike international Theories considering cyclicity as a generation of factors inherent in the economy itself. The main inner inherent inherent economic system, the cause of vibrations of business activity, most economists call the dynamics of the ratio of aggregate demand and the aggregate supply.

If a boom began in some industries, which caused a sharp increase in demand for cars and equipment, it is quite natural to assume that the phenomenon will repeat after 10-15 years, when these machines and equipment will be completely worn out. In addition to physical wear of fixed capital, there are other reasons generating an economic cycle. Among them are distinguished:

- personal consumption, reduction or increasing of which affects production and employment;
- investment, i.e., investment in the expansion of production, its upgrades;
- Economic policies of the state, expressing in direct or indirect impact on production, demand and consumption.

Modern economic theory dismisses external factors the role of long-wave pulse generator, whereas internal reasons are considered as converters of these pulses to fluctuations in large cycles.

The general "pulse" of the economic cycle covers all aspects of the development of the economy: the level of production, employment, income and prices, campaigns, sales, sales, construction of various objects, etc. Since economic processes affect such non-economic phenomena, such as fertility, human health, marriages, as well as political events, it can be concluded that the economic cycle penetration into all spheres of the nation's life.

No cycle is similar to another intensity and duration of oscillations of major macroeconomic indicators: GNP, employment and price levels. But there are a number of characteristics that are in one way or another inherent in any cycle. First of all, this is the passage of the economy during the cycle of sequentially four phases - crisis, depression, revival and rise.

The crisis (recession, decline) is the phase of the economic cycle, during which the real GNP is reduced during two or more quarters.

Let's try to present the overall picture of the crisis as deep shocks of all business system from top to bottom.

The market that absorbed unhindered all produced goods, at some time turns out to be crowded, the goods continue to act, and the demand is gradually decreasing and finally stopped at all. Anxiety extends throughout the market. The demand disappeared, and the commodity reserves are huge, and many enterprises continue to work at full capacity due to inertia. It follows a rapid drop in prices.

Truly, the heroic efforts are made to save the situation, but all means are fruitless. The liquidation of enterprises and collapse begin. First of all, banks and credit institutions are dying. The trust of market participants to each other is undermined.

All require paying cash. A bill of exchange, who did not cause doubts yesterday, become simple paper. The loan percentage increases. Crowds unemployed appear on the streets. Begins hunger, suicide. In such a dramatic scenario, the crises of the last century were held.

The most ambitious attempt to overcome the crisis with the help of state events of the ball was undertaken by the United States during the Great Depression. Essence of her you know from previous lectures. At the same time, despite certain results, industrial crises continued.

In the context of the crisis, only enterprises with large financial capabilities continue to make a profit by reducing costs. Middle and small enterprises have no such opportunity and suffer bankruptcy. Their ruin has its advantages for industry as a whole, as it increases the overall level of labor productivity. This lowers the cost of goods and in the end - weakening the fall of the profit rate. It turns out that the crisis discovers not only the limit, but also the impulse in the development of the economy, gives rise to mainly intensive development, performing a stimulating function.

But the transition to the expansion of production cannot occur at one point. Therefore, the crisis comes to replace phase depression.

Depression is the phase of the cycle, coming after the crisis, when the recession continues significantly longer than two quarters.

The level of production is maintained stable, but very low with respect to the beginning of the crisis. A high level of unemployment remains. But the fall in prices is suspended, inventory stabilizes.

The revival - the phase of the economic cycle, during which the real GNP increases and employs employment.

The revival is accompanied by a minor increase in production level, some reduction in unemployment. Prices are gradually rising, and a loan interest begins to grow. The commodity market is growing demand for new industrial equipment. An emerging recovery covers an increasing amount of industries. At the end of the revitalization phase, the update incentives exhaust themselves, and extensive development on the lifting phase begins again.

The rise is the highest phase of the cycle, when the level of production exceeds the achieved in the previous cycle.

Lifting often acquires a rush character. Prices are feverishly growing. Unemployment is reduced to minimal sizes while simultaneously significant wage growth. The demand for products that determine trends in scientific and technological progress increases sharply, and prices are growing for it. The economy is suitable for the next turn.

A new cycle begins, but already with other characteristics, duration and depth. Even from this largely surface picture, it can be seen that each of the phases of the cycle has the ability to reproduce the subsequent phase. As a result, the economic cycle as a whole acquires the property of reproducing a new cycle.

What is the duration of the cycle? Let us turn to the experience of a highly developed US economy. The economic system of this country between 1854 and 1986. Passed through 30 business cycles of various intensity and duration. Stroks of view of duration distinguish the following types of cycles.

Large (classic) economic cycles cover the period of 7-11 years. Inside a large cycle, two or three small, or "commodity" cycles of 3-5 years, which are generated by the dynamics of the amount of stock-and material values \u200b\u200bin enterprises. Two large cycles are approximately characterized by cycles time associated with fluctuations in investment activity in the construction industry. These are building cycles. If we consider economic growth from a historical point of view, then from the beginning of the XIX century. We can detect very long cycles with a duration of 50-60 years, the existence of which revealed in the 20s of the XX century. Russian economist N.D. Kondratyev.

Processing with the help of special mathematical methods data on the dynamics of the most important economic indicators of England, Germany, France and the USA, Condratyev discovered curious patterns. Countries with market economies in their development regularly pass through the raising and recession stages, which are repeated in 50-60 years. These cycles and today are called "Condratyeva waves". They are associated with a fundamental update of equipment that have a particularly long service life (railways, bridges, canals, dams).

The fate of Nikolai Kondratyev is very tragic. His views contradicted the theory of the "party approach to economic planning". In 1930, he was arrested on a false accusation and convicted for 8 years. At the end of 1936, Kondratyev was seriously ill and began to blind. However, in 1938, he was re-convicted on the same contrived business and shot. He was only 46 years old.

The modern picture of the market economy began not to coincide with the traditional scheme. So, for example, the industrial cyclic crisis of the mid-70s. It was exacerbated by the oil crisis, but only in oil-consuming countries. The same countries that have their own sources energy resourcesnot only not suffered as a result of two crises, but even had a tendency to some development.

On the other hand, the expected rapid development of the industry in the lifting phase in many countries does not occur as a result of a sharp exacerbation of the situation caused by the environmental crisis. Oil, food, energy, raw materials crises are complemented in recent decades of currency system crises. These are the so-called structural crises.

Structural crises are generated by imbalances between the development of individual spheres and industries, they are usually a protracted character and do not always coincide with the beginning of cyclic crises

Thus, the reason for the cyclical nature of the development of the economy lies in the conflict of the conditions of production and the conditions of implementation, in contradiction between production, seeking expansion, and not having to have an increase in solvent demand. The material basis of the periodicity of crises is the update of fixed capital.

There is another approach to explaining the causes of crises in a market economy. According to this approach, the abstract possibility of crises is related to the money function as a means of circulation: the mismatch of the purchase and sale in place and time can create prerequisites for the breaking of many links in the sales and shopping chains; And as a payment tools: any entrepreneur cannot have guarantees that by the time of payment, the buyer of its products will be solvent, and then this rupture obligations will cause a chain reaction.

Since there are different views on the causes of cyclic oscillations, there are also various approaches to the problem of their regulation. But there is a general understanding of the fact that, firstly, the state is able to smooth out cyclic oscillations, and secondly, the state should be carried out in order to achieve economic stability.

There is a general understanding of what should be in general, the state of the behavior of the state aimed at overcoming cyclic oscillations. This is already known to you from 3.1. "The policy of expansion and deterrence policy."

In phase decline All events of the state should be aimed at stimulating business activity. In the field of tax policy, this means a decline in tax rates, providing tax benefits on new investment. In the field of monetary policy, this reduction in interest rates for issued loans, an increase in bank loan resources, i.e. Revival economic Life With the help of additional loans.

In the lifting period The economic situation of the state in order to prevent overheating of the economy and related painful phenomena conducts a deterrence policy that includes opposite fiscal and monetary policy activities.

That is, in order to smooth cyclic oscillations, the state should carry out a counteraction policy: the activities should go in the direction opposite to the existing fluctuations in the economic situation.

Of course, these are only general landmarks of anticyclic politics. We will talk about the methods of state regulation of the economy in more detail in the next paragraph.

An integral element of the modern economic cycle has become inflation. This is another manifestation of macroeconomic instability.

Inflation (from lat. inflatino. - Swimming) - this is the process of increasing the overall level of prices for goods and services, in which the purchasing power of the monetary unit falls.

Money purchasing power - This is the number of goods and services that can be bought at this level prices for this monetary unit.

At first, the cause of inflation was considered a ubiquitous transition to paper money, because they can be printed in any quantity. A certain reason in this statement was, and when mad inflation was played in Germany after the First World War (prices for three years rose three times a trillion times!), Then the fault for it was largely on Central Bank countries.

However, even after the emission of money was taken under strict control of parliaments, inflation did not disappear. And then the economic science took up the deeper studies and found that the inflation of the raspberry, it has several reasons, many forms of manifestation and, accordingly, should be different methods Fighting her.

Please note that not any price increase serves as an inflation rate. Prices may increase due to improving product quality, deterioration of fuel and commodity mining conditions, and social needs change. But it will not be an inflation price increase, but to a certain extent a logical, justified price increase for individual goods.

For example, the transition to the release of new vehicles with an economical diesel engine that meets international standards will obviously lead to an increase in the selling price: more perfect and high-quality products require high costs and appreciated above.

But if a systematic increase in prices for serially produced cars of the same model without any improvements, and often with a deterioration of characteristics, it is brightly pronounced inflationary character.

P. Heyne: "We should not forget: prices are changed not only by goods, but also the meters of their value, i.e. money. Inflation is not an increase in the size of the items, but a decrease in the length of the line we use. "

Inflation is an extremely complex, controversial, not well-studied process.

First of all, inflation differ in pace as 1) moderate or twisted (usually not more than 10% per year); 2) galoping

(from 20 to 200% per year); 3) hyperinflation (more than 50% per month for three quarters).

Moderate inflation Economic theory considers as a good for economic development, and the state as a subject of effective economic policy. It allows you to adjust prices in relation to changing demand conditions.

Galoping inflation is an already difficult managed process, a serious stress for the economy, although most transactions and contracts take into account such a rates of price growth.

Hyperinflation is the greatest danger, making tremendous damage to the population, even the wealthy layers of society, trade turns into Barter, the national economy is destroyed.

Guinness Book of Records: The most powerful inflation in the world occurred

in Hungary in June 1946, when the golden penger of 1931 was worth

130 trillion, paper pennies. On June 3, 1946, banknotes were issued for the amount of "Egimilliard Billion".

In the forms of manifestation distinguish open and depressed inflation. Open inflation is manifested in price increases. Depressed inflation inherent in the economy with administrative control over prices and incomes: externally prices are stable, and excess money is transformed into a commodity deficit, there are permanent embitting queues and "black market", which to some extent reflects real prices.

Inflation can be balanced, When the price increase is moderate and simultaneous to most of the goods and services, and unbalanced When the rise in prices has different rates in different product groups.

In the nature of expectations, economists distinguish expected inflation and unexpected. Expected inflation can be predicted: take into account its pace in collective agreements, production factors, the government can change taxes and transfers in a timely manner, then the impact of inflation to the economy as a whole will be insignificant.

Another thing is unexpected inflation. It is characterized by a sudden surge of prices, which is extremely negatively affecting the monetary circulation and taxation system.

In such a situation, if inflationary expectations already existed in the economy, the population sharply increases the costs of purchasing goods, which in itself creates difficulties in the economy, distorts the real picture of the needs in society and leads to a disorder household connections. Thus, a sudden price jump can provoke further inflationary expectations and form inflation psychology - The thing although subjective, but quite real and extremely dangerous, since it generates a vicious circle of self-stage inflation.

From the point of view, the reasons are distinguished inflation of demand and inflation costs.

The demand inflation occurs when the total demand is more cumulative supply (too much money "chases" for fewer goods, as the expenses of the state, the population and firms are growing faster than production).

Causes of inflation of demand:

1) expansion of state orders (military and social);
2) an increase in demand for the means of production in full loading of production capacity;
3) ROST. purchasing power population (salary) as a result of agreed actions of trade unions.

The cost inflation occurs when prices are growing due to an increase in production costs.

Causes of cost inflation:

1) oligopolistic pricing practice;
2) financial Policy states;
3) Rising prices for raw materials;
4) trade union actions requiring wages.

The risk of inflation costs for society is associated with the so-called inflationary spiral: The overall increase in prices leads to a decrease in real incomes of the population, hence the wage raising requirements and public policy Indexing income. This, in turn, increases the costs, which leads to a new price rope.

In practice, it is not easy to distinguish one type of inflation from the other, they closely interact, therefore the growth of salary, for example, may look like both inflation of demand and as cost inflation.

Starting from the second half of the XX century, prices in all developed countries grew constantly, and from the 70s. - Even during periods of economic recession, when the underload of production reached significant sizes. Such a phenomenon as you remember got a name staging.

Stagflation - inflation in combination with stagnation (stagnation, depression) of production and high unemployment.

Quantitative assessment of inflationary processes is carried out using inflation indicators. The inflation rate is measured using price index.

The price index is a relative indicator characterizing the price ratio over time. To calculate the price index, the baseline prices are usually taken for 100, and the prices of subsequent years are recalculated in relation to the base year.

Temp inflation For the current year is defined as follows. The current year price index is deducted from the price index of the past year and is divided into the price index of the last year, and then multiplied by 100%.

In a market economy, inflation has become a practically an integral attribute of economic life. This allows you to discuss not just about the consequences, but on some specific functions of inflation.

We have already considered a point of view, according to which the inflation is minor in size (let's say, the annual increase in prices by 3-4%), accompanied by the corresponding increase in the money supply, is able to stimulate production. But what would be supposedly "positive" inflation functions, leaving due to control and even remaining relatively weak, regulated, it has a whole complex of purely negative, negative influences on economic development. We note briefly some of them.

First, inflation affects the effectiveness at the microeconomic level. The higher the inflation, the stronger the relative prices are violated, the weaker the costs with costs. Remember how in Russia until the end of 1993, bread fed their cattle, since prices for it were significantly lower than the costs that turned into an inefficient distribution of limited resources of society.

Secondly, inflation makes it difficult to carry out macroeconomic policies due to the imbalances between the sectors of the economy, the fall in production and the reduction of incentives for labor.

Thirdly, inflation raises flight from money to the goods, turning this process into avalanche-like, exacerbates the trade hunger, revives Barter.

Fourth, with high inflation, huge losses are carrying owners of production factors, because in the short term the price factors are fixed, and the prices for final goods and services grow very quickly. As a result, there is a sharp decline in the real incomes of production factors owners.

Fifth, inflation negatively affects the fiscal system due to the effect of Tanza Oliver (Latin American economists, who first focus on him). Its essence is that inflation devalues \u200b\u200breceipts from taxation, which are accrued, for example, in the third quarter, and are paid in the fourth quarter of the year, when their real importance has already fallen.

Sixth, inflation is devastable for accumulated wealth, especially in the most liquid forms. This also applies to population savings, both banks and credit institutions.

In-seventh, the most important social consequence of inflation is the redistribution of national income, a decrease in the living standards of the population, since the nominal and real wages lags behind sharply increasing prices even subject to indexing income.

In eighth, the internationalization of production facilitates the transfer of inflation from the country to the country, complicating international currency and credit relations.

Speaking about the redistribution of income, it must be borne in mind that although losses from inflation carries all society, it happens to unequal. During inflation, it is beneficial to live in debt. Therefore, lenders lose much more than debtors. The biggest win of inflation receives the government, because it is the largest debtor in the country, and inflation devotes debts.

Less losing and those who can dramatically increase their income. And pensioners, disabled citizens and employees of the budget sector do not have such an opportunity, so they carry the basic burden of inflation on their shoulders.

There is here and the age moment. Among those receiving loans, the absolute majority are those who are less than 45 years old, so it turns out that, through the use of loans, they actually redistribute the state in their favor, which in the pre-confidence period has accumulated the older generation.

Negative social and economic consequences of inflation forcing the governments of different countries to pursue a certain economic policy in this area.

There are two approaches to the management of the economy in the conditions of inflation: the first is to develop adaptation policies, i.e. Adaptation to inflation, the second - in an attempt to eliminate inflation by anti-inflationary measures.

Adaptation policy It is built on the fact that all subjects of the market economy in their actions take into account inflation, first of all, through the accounting of losses from reducing the purchasing power of money.

Adaptation measures include: Indexing the interest rate on the size of the inflationary premium; introduction into labor agreements of inflationary adjustment of wages; Perestroika family budget towards the most inelastic goods and services, fast materialization of money; Increasing the share of borrowed funds against their own through the issue of shares, leasing, factoring.

Anti-inflation policy It comes from the fact that the modern market economy is inflationary in nature, since it is impossible to eliminate all inflation factors (budget deficit, monopolies, disproportions in the national economy, inflation expectations, transfers inflation in foreign economic channels, etc.) Therefore, the purpose of the anti-inflation policy is to make Inflation moderate, controlled, prevent destructive scale.

For this, the following measures are applied:

1) reducing the budget deficit by increasing taxes and reduce state expenditures;
2) the establishment of rigid limits on the annual increase in money supply, which allows you to control the level of inflation;
3) a change in the inflationary psychology of the population through the stimulation of production, price liberalization, the weakening of administrative customs control, etc.;
4) Reducing the inflationary impact on the economy of overflows foreign capital in the form of short-term government loans abroad to finance budget deficit;
5) gradualism - policies aimed at a slow decline in inflation for a long time due to the management of cumulative demand and without prejudice to employment;
6) privatization of part state owned In order to increase budget revenues.

Among the most painful consequences of the decline in the economy (depression) belongs unemployment.

Unemployment is surplus the workforce caused by the exceedment of the supply of labor over demand for it.

Reasons for unemployment:

1) structural shifts in the economy manifested in the fact that the introduction of new technologies leads to the release of labor (structural unemployment);
2) the economic downturn, which forces employers to reduce the demand for all resources, including labor (cyclic unemployment);
3) government policies and trade unions in the field of wages: raising minimum size wages increase production costs and thereby reduces labor demand;
4) seasonal changes in production level in certain sectors of the economy (seasonal unemployment);
5) changes in the demographic structure of the population, in particular the growth of the population in working age;
6) the existence of lumpen layers in the society, which do not have and are not looking for work, at least in the field of legal economy (stagnant unemployment).

It should be clarified that the unemployed categories include only those who are looking for a job or waiting for a return to work. After all, the "unemployed" and "non-working" - concepts are not identical. A person may not work for various reasons: some learn and do not work yet, others on pensions are no longer working, others simply do not want to work.

In the United States, for example, only those citizens who do not have work are considered officially unemployed, they are immediately ready to work, the last 4 weeks have been actively looking for work, wait for the start of work (already invited) within 30 days.

Depending on the reasons, the following types of unemployment distinguish.

Friction unemployment (from English. Friction. - friction, disagreement) is unemployment caused by constant and necessary changes in the placement of the Company's resources between the types and spheres of the production of goods and services.

It arises either due to the fact that the employers do not have full information about the availability of their categories of workers, or workers do not know about the availability of jobs. Friction unemployment covers those in the position "between the works" (voluntary or forced change of work, residence; temporary unemployment of women associated with the birth of a child; job search by returned from service in the army, etc.).

In such a situation, there is always a certain part of people, so this kind of unemployment exists constantly. It is believed that friction unemployment is a fee of society for an efficient economy. Everything that improves the workplace information and the availability of employees or reduces the time of job search, leads to a decrease in frictional unemployment.

Structural unemployment caused by changes in the structure of the national economy - the death of some professions and even whole industries, the emergence of new, restructuring of the economy of regions, changes in technology.

From frictional structural unemployment is distinguished by the fact that in frictional unemployment, the employee retains sufficient qualifications to change the industry or production. Really lost work due to structural shifts face the need to complete or significant retraining. Now Russia has faced a structural restructuring that has no analogues in world history.

We are talking about the elimination of millions of jobs, the existence of which has not responded to the needs of the country. In a significant part of its part, those who occupied these places (especially millions of managers) do not have chances to find work without radical retractions.

American experts in the late 1990s developed a forecast for the development of the labor market in the United States for the next 5-10 years and discovered the inevitability of serious change on it. It turned out that the share of employed in industry will fall from 18 to 9.7%, 43% of employees will work in the field of computer science.

Special demand will be placed on people who own the following specialties: an accountant auditor, a specialist in re-education of offenders, a medical sister, a specialist in public relations, a programmer, therapist for professional diseases, Technician for medical equipment. The state and needs of the new century labor market as a whole, confirm this forecast.

Structural unemployment is caused by objective reasons, so always inevitable and exists in society, but it can reduce the creation of the state and private firms of the network of reproduction centers.

Cyclic unemployment arises as a result of cyclic decays of production, causing a decrease in total demand for all factors of production, including labor.

This is the most unpleasant kind of unemployment - often massive and painful. The cyclicality of economic growth is insurmountable, therefore it is not possible to eliminate this type of unemployment, but the anti-crisis measures can smooth out the economic downturn and, accordingly, reduce the number of cyclic unemployed.

However, it suggests that the full employment of labor resources does not mean the complete absence of unemployment.

In a dynamic economy, some part of workers in many reasons are inevitably and is always outside jobs. Therefore, the question arises: what number of unemployed can be considered permissible if the labor market works efficiently, and the economy does not survive the decline? Nobody will give an absolutely accurate answer to this question, but the overall understanding of what complete employment is still in economists.

Full-time - The level of employment, developing in the country in the presence of only structural and friction unemployment.

If the number of unemployed exceeds the average levels of friction and structural forms of unemployment in a given country, this is most likely due to the appearance of cyclic unemployment, i.e., with a decline in the economy. In the US, for example, experts believe that full-time employment is achieved if 94-95% of able-bodied citizens have work.

Thus, the concept of complete employment proceeds from the idea of \u200b\u200bthe existence of the natural norm of unemployment. - This is the state of the labor market, in which there is an approximate balance between the number of free jobs and the number of qualified workers looking for work.

If the unemployment rate of unemployment in the country is higher than natural, it means that we have encountered excess unemployment - The phenomenon is undesirable and even dangerous in social and political terms.

Norm unemployment - This is a share (as a percentage) in the total number of economically active population of those people who are unemployed.

Full-time, natural unemployment rate, excess unemployment and unemployment rate are the main interrelated indicators that are used to characterize the status of employment.

Guinness Book of Records: The lowest unemployment rate was registered in Switzerland in December 1973 (the population of 6.6 million people) The total number of unemployed was 81 people. In Europe in 2012, the lowest unemployment rate in Austria - 4.4%, and the highest - in Spain (25.8%).

Full-time - an empty idea, if it means the employment of jobs, where nothing useful is made. The meaningful purpose of the idea of \u200b\u200bcomplete employment is productive employment.

Productive employment - Organization of labor use in such a way that those engaged in the goods and services with the smallest costs needed.

Unfortunately, in our country, we managed to create millions of posts for anyone who are not necessary managers, hundreds of thousands of places for quasi-finished, for reserve workers at large enterprises, especially in the sectors of the military-industrial complex.

Despite the objective nature of unemployment, the socio-economic losses that it generates is obvious:

First, products are not produced, i.e. Some part of the GNP is lost.

Secondly, decrease tax revenues: A working income that is taxed.

Thirdly, the standard of living for those who lost their work is reduced since unemployment benefits are lower than the salary.

Fourth, the psychological state of the unemployed is worse due to the loss of qualifications and self-esteem, moral decline begins.

Fifth, the social and political tensions in society are growing.

To determine the magnitude of the loss of GNP as a result of unemployment, the so-called law OUCEN (It was formulated by the American economist Artur Ouchen).

Oaksen's law: The excess of the actual norm of unemployment of its natural level by 1% leads to the lagging in the volume of the actual GNP compared to the potential GNP by 2.5%.

Assessing unemployment as a socio-economic phenomenon, it is impossible to unequivocally say: it's good or bad. From the point of view of a person who remains without work, it may be a tragedy. It is not by chance that the Americans say: "Unemployment is 100% equal, if the unemployed is - you yourself." And from the point of view economic speakers Unemployment is an objective need.

Moreover, the friction unemployment is a means of more efficient placement of labor resources of society, and structural unemployment, unless, of course, the benefits of retraining of workers exceed the cost of it, brings the society with a clean win.

However, considering those negative consequenceswhich carries a cyclic unemployment to society, and friction and structural - people who have worked without work, employment needs targeted state regulation.

Directions of regulating the labor market:

1) employment of unemployed population and assistance in professional preparation and retraining (labor exchange);
2) creation of a flexible labor market legal support labor relations;
3) Social protection of people affected by the unemployment (alexism system).

In world experience, two main types of impact on employment level were developed:

1) active type includes measures to create new jobs and to preserve and raise employment in enterprises;
2) passive type Includes payments for all kinds of benefits unemployed.

In this way, market system Equally contraindicated and arithmetic "full-time", and too high unemployment. In the level of unemployment, equal to its natural norm, they talk about effective full-time employment, meaning a certain relationship between employment and unemployment.

Already in the 50s. Many economists and politicians suggested that it is possible to reduce the norm of unemployment if you have patience regarding a higher rate of inflation.

From the previous topic, you know that the fight against inflation inevitably leads to a decrease in investment in the economy, as it requires restricting the money supply by reducing public investment and increase the loan interest rate.

In turn, the decline in investment leads to a reduction in demand for labor and, accordingly, the growth of cyclic unemployment. Attempts to reduce the mass of the unemployed by increasing the number of jobs require an increase in investment by expanding state investment programs and low-rate policies of the loan interest. It inevitably increases inflation rates. The same result is obtained when attempts to mitigate unemployment through the system of benefits unemployed.

This relationship found on the example of the British economy Australian economist Arthur Phillips. This phenomenon, as discovered Phillips statistically, existed in the British economy for almost 100 years.

Phillips curve

Cut Curve Phillips Leeper Point M. It characterizes the inflation of demand, which may arise as a result of the state attempts to establish an artificially high level of employment. Cut the right point M. Reflects the fall in prices during the crisis.

During the stagniflation period, there is no movement along the Phillips curve, and the series of shifts of the curve itself is right and upwards, which indicates growth and inflation, and unemployment at the same time.

Un - Natural unemployment rate;

RP - The rate of price increases with the natural level of unemployment.

Until the mid-70s. Many economists still believed that A. Filips's hypothesis continues to be a worker. However, the real curve of the Phillips, made on the basis of the real relationship between inflation and unemployment in the United States for 25 years (1961-186), turned out to be a swirling broken line.

The fact is that inflation is growing much more stable than falls. The growth of aggregate demand almost always leads to acceleration of inflation and reduce unemployment. But the fall in total demand does not always give symmetric reverse results. Even, most likely, the economy will not give these results.

Therefore, the relationship between inflation and unemployment is clearly traced only in the short term, and after all it is for the ability to choose a relatively long-term fiscal and credit Policy Economists hoped, having received the discovery of A. Filips in 1958.

In the short term than the cooler of the Phillips curve, the more significant the reduction in the inflation rate due to a more modest decline in employment. Quantitative estimates are as follows: to reduce inflation by 1% unemployment during the year there must be 2% higher than its natural level. According to the Act of Oaken, this means a decrease in the real GNP by 5% of the potential.

The problem of need to pay unemployment for the reduction of inflation is solved ambiguously. This is a dilemma. Part of economists claims that such a fee is not large, others speak about the moral and psychological inadmissibility of even a minor growth of unemployment. In any case, no one has proven that it is more profitable to dismiss a person for the economy than to ensure its work and in the end more than the product.

D.Kennedy : "We believe that if people have enough talent to invent cars that push people in the rows of unemployed, then people are enough talent to find a new job for unemployed."

CONTROL QUESTIONS

1. Give the cycle definition.
2. Name the external and internal causes of the cycle.
3. Describe how the cycle phases occur. Why does each cycle phase contain the possibility of exiting it?
4. Describe various types of cycles for their duration.
5. What are the main directions of anticyclic politics?
6. What is understood under the purchasing power of money?
7. Explain the essence of inflation and call it the main types.
8. What are the signs and the negative consequences of depressed inflation?
9. What is called demand inflation and cost inflation?
10. With what indicators you can measure the tempo of inflation?
11. Name the main economic and social consequences of inflation.
12. Name the basic measures of adaptation and anti-inflationary policy.
13. Give the definition of unemployment and name the reasons that generate this phenomenon.
14. Name the main types of unemployment.
15. What do they differ from the point of view of the causes and methods of partial overcoming?
16. What economic science calls full employment?
17. Why does the unemployment rate correspond to it natural?
18. Name the main employment rates.
19. What are the economic and social consequences of unemployment?
20. Word the Oaken's law.
21. What are the main directions and types of state regulation of the labor market?
22. How is unemployment and inflation?
23. What is the essence of the Phillips curve? What are the boundaries of its practical application?

Tasks and exercises

1. Suppose that the inflation rate was equal to 0, and the real interest rate was 5%. What size of the nominal interest rate will be able to guarantee the same real interest rate subject to an increase in inflation to 15%?
2. Inflation rates are 100% per year. What are the consequences of inflation for the following persons:
- a) a lender providing a period for a period of a year under 50% per annum?
- b) the borrower who took the loan for a period of 1 year under 50% per annum?
- c) a person who has a fixed income?
- d) the tenant, if the rent increased for the year by 70%?
3. If prices increase by 15% per month, how much will they increase during the year?
4. Try to determine the status in the workforce of the following people:
- a) a qualified mechanic who cannot find a job corresponding to its level and waiting for the general improvement in the economy in order to re-enter the workplace;
- b) day branch student;
- c) temporarily abbreviated working bearing plant (due to the lack of demand for certain types of bearings) and waiting for the return;
- d) a woman who has passed from work and waiting for a child;
- e) a woman who has passed from work on maternity leave;
- e) dismissed due to the liquidation of the office engineer working

janitor in housing and communal services;

g) dismissed due to the elimination of the office engineer, not found work.
5. If the official unemployment rate is 10%, and the number of employed is 90 million people, how much is the unemployed?
6. The following are conditional data on the dynamics of unemployment and price index:


Unemployment rate,%
Price index

Draw a schedule characterizing the Phillips curve.

7. In Russia in 1994, the occupied population was 68.5 million people, and economically active - 73.96 million people. What was the number of unemployed, and what was their share in the economically active population?
8. Using the OUCEN law, calculate the absolute loss of products associated with unemployment:

The actual unemployment rate \u003d 9.5%.

Natural unemployment rate \u003d 6%.

Nominal volume of GNP \u003d 3300 billion rubles.

9. Install the correspondence between the cycle phases and their content:

10. Install the correspondence between the forms of unemployment and their content:

Tasks for the seminar

1. List your own assets portfolio. What kind of part of you keep in the form MR Do you have any assets in the form M 2,how, for example, savings deposits? Do you have securities or real estate? Whether the part of your assets portfolio stored in shape is changing MR If so, what are the reasons for these changes? Does your personal demand for money have a stable relationship with your income and with existing percentages? Discuss these questions.
2. Try to find the reasons for the fact that government control over prices and salaries may be ineffective to suppress inflation.
3. During the New Year festivities in all Christian countries, the demand of the population is increasing. How should the Central Bank react to this if he wants to maintain a monetary mass as a constant? What happens to the monetary base and money multiplier?
4. You are already known to the views of Keynesians and Monetarists on how to maintain macroeconomic stability. Compare their tips on regulating money circulation and deterring inflation. results comparative analysis Write down in the form of a table.
5. Despite the fact that money is more convenient for making transactions than Barter, the latter still did not disappear from the modern economic system. Give an example of Barter from your personal experience and explain why Barter was used in this case.
6. What are the inflation rates do you expect this year? To what extent your expectations are due to the experience of the previous one? Did you influence your expectations of the pace of future inflation of the article with economic forecasts or political reviews?

Tests

1. When the economy passes the lifting phase:
- a) inflation begins to grow;
- b) the real GNP does not change;
- c) friction unemployment disappears;
- d) Cyclic unemployment is growing.
2. The expected inflation damages:
- a) money holders;
- b) people with fixed income;
- c) owners of restaurants;
- d) all of the above.
3. External signs of inflation are as follows:
- a) the price of the workforce is growing, the supply of goods is reduced;
- b) the prices of goods are growing, real wages are falling;
- c) prices for goods are reduced;
- d) grow real incomes of the population.
4. An indicator of the inflation rate is:
- a) foreign trade price index;
- b) consumer price index;
- c) nominal exchange rate;
- d) Currency purchasing ability parity.
5. Economists believe that cyclic unemployment:
- a) temporary phenomenon;
- b) is capable of self-regulation;
- c) does not constitute a serious problem;
- d) arises during recession.
6. Full-time is associated with:
- a) the total absence of unemployed;
- b) hyperinflation;
- c) the concept of natural norm of unemployment;
- d) cyclic unemployment.
7. Stagflation refers to a combination:
- a) inflation and unemployment;
- b) the growth of aggregate production and inflation;
- c) rapid economic growth and unemployment;
- d) rapid economic growth and inflation.
8. Cyclic unemployment is related:
- a) with a decrease in economic activity;
- b) with an increase in labor productivity;
- c) with a phase of lifting in the economic cycle;
- d) with division of labor.
9. Over time, the natural norm of unemployment:
- a) must decrease;
- b) should grow;
- c) can change;
- d) may decline, but can not grow.
10. When the inflation rate is lower than the expected norm:
- a) unemployment changes;
- b) unemployment should grow;
- c) unemployment should decrease;
- d) unemployment is constant.
11. With full employment, but high inflation, which policy is likely to lead to a decrease in its pace:
- a) an increase in government spending;
- b) reducing government spending;
- c) tax reducing;
- d) increasing taxes.

Blitz survey

1. The cyclicity of the economy is continuous oscillations of the market conjuncture.
2. Periods of increasing economic activity are characterized by intensive development.
3. The economic cycle includes four phases.
4. Investment fluctuations do not affect the economic crisis.
5. State regulation can prevent the economic crisis.
6. Structural crises are short-term.
7. Inflation is usually not related to the money supply.
8. Inflation is impossible in the absence of money.
9. Even with 1000% per annum bank deposits The actual interest rate may be negative.
10. Inflation in any case is equivalent to a decrease in real income.
11. The decline in prices by 10% in constant income means the growth of real income by 10%.
12. The population quickly rebuilds its behavior during inflation.
13. From inflation, all society carries a loss equally.
14. Indexing income is a very effective way to combat inflation.
15. Full employment means the complete absence of unemployment.
16. The simultaneous existence of inflation and unemployment is called depression.
17. Friction unemployment is considered by economists as a completely unacceptable phenomenon.
18. The Phillips curve describes the positive relationship between inflation and unemployment.
19. When the economy passes the lifting phase, inflation begins to grow.
20. Excessive unemployment is a situation where the official norm of unemployment is higher than natural.
21. The cause of structural unemployment is to reduce general economic activity.
22. Active type of employment is to pay unemployment benefits.

Basic concepts

Adaptation policy

Anti-inflation policy

Anticyclic politician

Unemployment

Hyperinflation

Gradualism

Depression

Natural unemployment rate

Law OUCEN

Stagnant unemployment

Excess unemployment

Inflation psychology

Inflation

Inflation costs

Inflation demand

Phillips curve

A crisis

Revival

Official unemployment rate Depressed inflation

Consumer Accidence

Full-time

Productive employment

Seasonal unemployment

Stagflation

Structural unemployment Structural crises Patron Inflation Friction unemployment Cyclic unemployment Economic cycle

LITERATURE

1. Blag M. Economic thought in retrospect. M.: Case, 1995.
2. Bogdanov I.Ya. Economic security of Russia: theory and practice. M.: IF RAS, 2004.
3. Gershaft M. Remuneration, employment and social protection. // Raz. № 3. 2002.
4. Grevykh L.S., Nureev R.M. Economy. Course base: Textbook for universities. M.: Vita, 2005, ch. fourteen.
5. Monetary policy in inflation. // Money and loan. № 6. 2005.
6. Livshitz A. Inflation. Short special course. // Razh, No. 4-6. 1992.
7. McConnell K., Bruz S. Economics: principles, problems and politics. M.: Infra-M, 2002, TL, p. 163-173, 338-344. T. 2, p. 346-357.
8. Nikitin S.M. Inflation and struggle with it: Foreign experience and Russia. // Money and loan. 2003. No. 5.
9. Dictionary modern economic theory Macmillana. M.: Infra-M, 2003.
10. Heine P. Economic image of thinking. M.: News, 1991, p. 483-490.
11. Economic I. national security: Tutorial / Ed. Oleinikova E.A. M.: Exam, 2004.

Topics of abstracts

1. Features of inflation in Russia.
2. Methods of combating inflation: Western experience.
3. Picture of Russian unemployment.

\u003e\u003e Economic instability

Economic development is not stable. It is understood that in practice, the development of the economy has no uniformly progressive, but a cyclic nature: economy Periodically experiencing recession, depression, revival, lift (see page 54).

The economy of any country is a constantly developing complex structure consisting of a variety of subjects with inconsistent and often contradictory goals. It is not surprising that the economic barometer is extremely rare and does not stop at the "Clear" mark for a long time. Small fluctuations of its testimony are considered normal phenomenon and fears do not cause. The reason for concern occurs when the arrow of the barometer rolls, or in the event that the deviation is chronic.

Below will be about such types of deviations as inflation and unemployment, their types, stagflation.

The number of goods and services that can be bought for money is called the purchasing powerfulness of money.

X Inflation is a decrease in the purchasing power of money, which leads to a total price increase in the economy. In the terminology of economic equilibrium, inflation means the mutual inconsistency of the flow of money and the flow of goods in the sense that there is more money in the economy than the amount of prices of goods. The reason for this may be an increase in solvent demand, the leading opportunities for the economy to satisfy them. Rising prices caused by this circumstance is called demand inflation. And the growth of costs of production of goods and services, which increases their price, but not the amount, generates cost inflation. It should not be thought that the effects of inflation are equally terrible for everyone. As often happens in life, "someone loses - someone finds."

Friction unemployment(Natural unemployment rate) - an inevitable phenomenon in a market economy, due to the availability of freedom of movement in the labor market at any time when some of the people are in the process of changing the place of work.

The cause of structural unemployment are structural shifts in the economy, due to which people certain professions Or residents of individual regions lose work. Although the structural unemployment is also natural, like the frictional, its overcoming is already associated with the need for public costs: you need time and means to train such unemployed new specialties to which there is a demand, or give the opportunity to move to another region.

Cyclic unemployment is a companion of the economic downturn and depression (drop in production growth rates, or even its reduction). Unlike other types of unemployment, it is characterized by the absolute excess of the number of unemployed over the total amount vacancies work places.

The consequences of unemployment eloquently says the law of Okeen (true, empirical): Exceeding the actual unemployment level by 1% over the natural level of unemployment leads to the lag GNP From a potential level by about 2.5%. The potential level of GNP is the maximum possible issue of benefits with the full use of available quality resources.

Stagflation - This is a manifestation of economic instability, combining inflation and unemployment.

Fundamentals of the economy Tutorial For schoolchildren (Issue 2), E.G.Limanova, L.P. Bouftova

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