Topic 3. Employment and unemployment as actual problems
Modern Labor Market (Ending Lectures)
1. The concept, principles and form of employment. The current state of employment and the use of labor resources in Russia.
2. Unemployment: features, classification and socio-economic consequences. Unemployment indicators.
3. Hidden forms of employment and unemployment.
4. Employment policy in the Russian Federation and determining its effectiveness.
By durationunemployment is divided into short-term (up to 4 months), prolonged (from 4 to 8 months), long-term (from 8 to 18 months), stagnant (more than 18 months).
Once uponfeit, it can be concluded that unemployment can be caused by different reasons: a decline in the economy (cyclic), natural factors (seasonal), structural changes (structural, technological), imperfection of information on the labor market (frictional) and may have a different duration . The combination of the above unemployment factors forms its overall level in the country.
By character of manifestation We distinguish unemployment open, including registered, and hidden.
Open unemploymentdoes not require special comments, it does not hide, not masked, people publicly declare their desire to work and actively engage in its search. Registered unemployment - this is part of open unemployment, which is registered in the authorities of the employment service by addressing citizens seeking work.
Hidden unemployment In more detail will be considered in the following topic.
The level of hidden unemployment is determined by special surveys, as well as an expert assessment of the leaders of large enterprises, management bodies, specialists of the employment service, scientists.
About hidden unemployment in more detail in the following question of this topic.
Indicators unemployment
Unemployment is the object of attention of state bodies. For its size, composition and duration, observation and research of the Government of the Russian Federation represented by its bodies - Rostrud, Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, as well as local authorities.
The study of unemployment is based on the system of its indicators obtained on the basis of official (monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual) statistical materials of Rosstat, based on special selective household surveys on employment issues, "statistical bulletins" and other materials (for example, "monitoring of the registered Unemployment ") prepared and published by Roshdom.
In Russian statistics, as in the statistics of many other countries, two methods of measurement of unemployment are used: 1) on registration services in employment services, 2) the results of regular labor surveys, in which the status of the unemployed is determined by the criteria for the International Labor Organization (ILO). Accordingly, two indicators are calculated and published: registered (explicit)and General (or "Motovskaya") Unemployment. Possible discrepancies between them are explained by the fact that, first of all, part of the unemployed prefers to keep a job, not registered in public employment services; Secondly, persons who have the work or representing economically inactive population are often registered as the unemployed for the sake of obtaining benefits. In intercountry comparable, it is customary to use unemployment rates based on labor surveys, since they are carried out according to a single methodology and are free from the distorting impact of administrative practice of registration of unemployed, developing in various countries.
Consider the most common indicators of unemployment.
1. The level of officially registered unemployment - this is the ratio of the number of registered unemployed to the number of economically active population on the basis of statistical data calculated on a certain territory in the average monthly, average annual expression or as of a specific date (for example, at the end of the year). For the terms of the average annual number, this indicator is calculated by the following formula:
Uzb \u003d zb / e and x 100%;
Uzb - the level of unemployment registered in the I-th territory on average annual calculation, %; ZB is the average annual number of unemployed registered in the I-th territory; EC - the average annual number of economically active population in the I-th territory, man.
2. Level general unemployment - This is the relation of the total number of unemployed, calculated on a certain territory by selective surveys as of a specific date, to the number of economically active population at this date. It is calculated by the formula
where is the unemployment rate; - the number of economically active population; - The number of people.
U b \u003d v / u a x 100%;
U b - the level of overall unemployment in the I-th territory as of a specific date,%; Oh - the total number of unemployed, calculated on the Ith territory, by selective surveys as of a certain date, man; EC - the average annual number of economically active population in the I-th territory, man.
3. Friction unemployment level equal to a percentage of the ratio of the friction unemployed to the total labor force:
Ufricz \u003d Ufricz / * 100%
4. The level of structural unemployment It is calculated as the ratio of the number of structural unemployed to the total number of labor force, expressed as a percentage):
URUST \u003d URUST / * 100%
5. Share registered unemployment in the total number of unemployed- This is the ratio of the number of registered on a specific date of unemployed to the total number of unemployed, calculated on the Ith territory by selective surveys at a certain date. It is found according to the following formula:
UB \u003d zb / bass x 100%;
UB - the proportion of registered unemployment in the total number of unemployed in the i-th territory as of a specific date, %; ZB - the number of registered unemployed in the Ith territory as of a certain date, man.
6. Duration of unemployment - The value that characterizes the average search duration of work by persons who have the status of unemployed at the end of the period under consideration, as well as those unemployed, which were employed during this period. This value is described by two indicators. The first indicator shows how many months all those who are on the relevant date are not working as unemployed. The second - how many middle months were without work those with the unemployed status, which in the period under consideration received work.
7.The indicator characterizing the state of the labor market is coefficient of tension - The ratio of the number of unemployed labor activities consisted in employment services to the number of jobs declared in the employment service, calculated on a certain territory in the average monthly, annual expression or as of a specific date (for example, at the end of the year). To calculate the indicator for a specific date, the formula is used
HP \u003d NB / SV X 100%;
HP - the coefficient of tension in the labor market at the i -ze territory as of a specific date; SV is the number of jobs declared in the employment service from enterprises and organizations on the territory as of a specific date.
8. In all reformed economies, the transition to the market was accompanied by an increase in the number not only unemployed, but also persons belonging to economically inactive population. The weakening of labor activity was caused by the reduced employment opportunities for pensioners, increased difficulties to combine labor with raising children for women (due to the closure of children's preschool institutions, etc.), the emergence of a new category in the labor market - desperate to find a job.
At the same time, this meant approaching a more rational distribution model of the employment potential of society in areas of activity characteristic of mature market economies. In the former socialist countries, the labor activity of the population was artificially maintained at an ultra-high level and even after a tangible fall in the transition period continues to remain higher than in many countries with a similar level of development (especially among women).
9. The labor market indicators are also: unemployment levels in certain categories of the population, such as youth and female unemployment; The structure of the unemployed by sex, age, marital status, work experience; Unemployment duration as a time between the day of registration of a citizen as an unemployed and the day of reliating it from accounting in the employment service authority at the place of residence; the average duration of unemployment; Scale of public works and training in the direction of employment service; Causes of unemployment, etc.
Analyzing the dynamics of unemployment in Russia, you can make sure that the problem of employment has practically absent in the rearrangement period. The principle of universality and obligation of labor dominated in society. So since 1992 to 1998, there is a sharp increase in the unemployed level in the country (an average of 1.6% per year), and reaches a maximum indicator at the time of the 1998 crisis - 14% as a result of a decline in production and structural transformations in the economy. The following factors contributed to this trend: first, the privatization of domestic enterprises led to a reduction in employees, a wave of mass layoffs took place; secondly, the failure and non-competitiveness of enterprises led to their bankruptcy; Thirdly, the structural restructuring of the economy contributed to an increase in structural unemployment.
| Figure 1 - Dynamics of unemployment in Russia for 1992 - 2009. |
The current state of unemployment in the country has largely influenced the crisis of 2008. The reaction to this crisis was to reduce the cost of personnel in 62% of the surveyed companies (the survey conducted Headhunter's research company, in which 222 Russian companies adopted participation. The most common way to reduce costs for employees is the reduction of the state. A third of companies (33%) dismissed part of employees. Next, such measures are followed as a decrease in wages (22%), the reduction of the working week (14%), forced vacation (16%). Also a fairly common way is to reduce the social package (15%).
The crisis not only led to mass dismissals and unemployment in Russia, but also gave rise to demand for a number of professions, previously not too popular: a lawyer specializing in bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions, an innovative manager, a personnel reduction specialist, an anti-crisis manager, a financial manager monitoring and credit risks, etc.
As a result, in 2009, the maximum level of unemployed after the 1998 crisis was achieved. According to Rosstat, the number of people seeking people in Russia increased to 7.7 million people, which is 10.2% of the economically active population.
Among the unemployed, the share of women in September 2009 amounted to 45.7% (3.51 million people), but this figure decreased by 1.6% compared with the previous year. Exceeding the share of men among the unemployed is due to the fact that the "men's" industries (such as military-industrial complex and others) suffered large losses, while the "female" sectors of the social sector (health education), on the contrary, increased.
According to the data for 2009, the greatest number of unemployed falls on the age groups of 20-24 years, as a result of a high degree of uncertainty with which the "newcomer" faces the labor market and frequent change of work (high level of frictional unemployment). The smallest - 55-59 years as a result of the fact that people of prenetsion age are not inclined to change the work.
Among the unemployed, 31.4% are faces, the period of which is in the state of job search does not exceed 3 months. One year and more looking for work 30.4% unemployed. Among the rural residents, the share of stagnant unemployment is significantly higher than among urban.
In September 2009, among the unemployed, the proportion of persons who left the former work in connection with the release or reduction of the number of employees (structural unemployment) amounted to 16.2%, and the proportion of persons who left the former work in connection with the dismissal at their own request - 19 , 8 percent (frictional.
Considering the unemployment rate on the regions of Russia, the following groups can be distinguished (Table 1). After analyzing the table, we can conclude that the high level of unemployment is observed in the regions with a high population, but with insufficient economic development to ensure the working-age population by work. Low unemployment rate - in industrial regions and in regions, massively creating new jobs in market industries.
A distinctive feature of unemployment is currently its hidden character. The largest scale of hidden unemployment are the regions of the North-East and the Far East. People of these regions tend to look for work themselves, not trusting the employment service. Also a significant part of the population is occupied in the criminal sphere.
Table 1 - Classification of regions depending on the level
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In 2010 in Russia, despite overcoming the consequences of the crisis, the unemployment rate remains high. So, according to the calculations of the ILO, in September of this year there were 5 million unemployed Russians. Each seventh of a hundred people falls under the definition of "unemployed", therefore, the unemployment rate is 7 percent. Compared with the previous year, the decrease in the indicator by 3.2 percent. However, post-crisis consequences still actively make themselves to know: part of the workforce turned out to be unclaimed, for example, in connection with the transition to new technologies in industry, or on electronic accounting.
The Federal Service for Labor and Employment since mid-2004 is managed by the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia, and its territorial bodies conduct work to assist the unemployed in search of suitable work, and also lead statistics reflecting their activities. In the periodically published Bulletin "The main indicators of the activities of the employment service authorities", Rostrud cites the following data:
■ the number of job seekers who are registered, -
■ Of these, the persons who are appointed unemployment allowance;
■ The number of persons registered - all;
■ Of these - non-employed labor;
■ the number of persons recognized as unemployed;
■ the number of persons assigned to unemployment benefits;
■ the number of persons taken from accounting;
■ Employees needed by enterprises and organizations;
■ Number of persons who have completed vocational training in the direction of the employment service, etc.
Such information is given not only in the whole country, but also for each of the seven federal districts, as well as for each of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Materials are built on the balance sheet method: at the beginning of the reporting period, during the reporting period and at the end of the reporting period.
Unemployment is a phenomenon characteristic of all countries of the world. According to the International Labor Organization, it covers almost all the economically active population of the world, which either does not have work or occupied part-time.
Unemployment in some industrialized countries of the world and the CIS countries at the beginning of the XXI century. Characterized by the data given in Table. 2.
The high level of unemployment in the countries of the former socialist camp - Poland, Bulgaria, as well as in the former Republic of the USSR, is drawn to attention. The rate of unemployment in Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany is comparable in their magnitude. In such prosperous countries as Switzerland and Norway, unemployment also takes place, but its level is 2-3 times lower than in Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. USA, Japan and the United Kingdom at the beginning of the XXI century. had a moderate unemployment rate, although periods are known when unemployment and there was catastrophically high.
In many developing countries, most workers work on low-product workplaces and low-paid work with severe working conditions. From October 2008 and in 2009, in connection with the global financial crisis, the unemployment rate in most developed countries has increased dramatically.
Attitude towards unemployment As the socio-economic phenomenon was not always unequivocal and changed over time. At the beginning of the XX century, when the sizes
unemployment on a global scale was great enough, it was believed that it was a big social evil with which the state should fight by all means and methods. In the middle of the XX century, in the context of building societies with social market economies there was a new look at unemployment as a social phenomenon, which, due to an episodic nature, does not represent serious problems for the state.
Currently, the attitude towards unemployment is addressed depending on its type and duration. Short-term friction unemployment has more positive moments than negative. Structural - caused by scientific and technical progress and the natural process of improving production. Both of these types of unemployment are natural and do not cause the need to make any significant measures to prevent, except that the organization of personnel retraining is necessary in accordance with the requirements of the labor market.
Cyclic unemployment accompanied by long and
Its shapes, - the most destructive to society, she
Deals the population a significant economic, moral and
Social damage and requires active measures of the state to overcome
to prevent stagnant unemployment or reduce it
level.
Long and stagnant unemployment entails serious economic and social costs. Among economic consequences unemployment Let's call the following:
Mischief of production, under-utilization of the production opportunities of society. American economist Arthur Oken substantiated and quantitatively expressed the relationship between unemployment level and the volume of gross national product (GNP), according to which the excess of unemployment over its normal natural level leads to the lag of the production of GNP from its potential level by 2.5% (Act Oaken).
A significant reduction in the living standards of people who were unemployed, since work is the main source of means of existence for them;
Increased tax burden in employed due to the need for social support for the unemployed, payments of benefits and compensation, etc.
Basic among social consequences are:
Strengthening political instability and social tensions in society;
Aggravation of the criminogenic situation, since a significant number of offenses and crimes are performed by non-working persons;
An increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, mortality from alcoholism, in general, the volume of deviant behavior (behavior with various deviations);
The deformation of the personality of the unemployed and its social relationships, expressed in the emergence of life depression in forcedly unoccupied citizens, loss of qualifications and practical skills; The exacerbation of family relations and disintegration of families, reducing external social relations unemployed.
Unemployment is a common phenomenon. There is neither a single place in the world where this phenomenon would not arise.
It affects all the spheres of human life, provoking production changes.
The calculation of the unemployment rate is carried out by analyzing the ratio of the number of citizens who do not have the opportunity to get a job, and are able-bodied to the number of employees. Within the RF, the number of unemployed, since 2014, is inconsistently growing.
Unemployment Basics - Concept, Analysis, Accounting
The economic development of the country is partly expressed in the unemployment indicator. It is a socio-economic phenomenon, in which the active part of the population can not be employed, recognized as if "superfluous", among the main labor mass.
The international organization of labor gave the definition of unemployed. So, a person who does not have a permanent workplace is recognized as unemployed, is in finding work and can readily get ready for her. It is very important that this person was officially registered In the unemployment fund.
It is noteworthy that the number of unemployed in each of the periods varies depending on the change in the cycle and the rate of economic growth, on how much labor productivity indicator increased, as well as on the level of a professional-qualified structure and demand for labor.
Evaluation of indicatorsthat affect the pressure on the unemployment rate is made by:
- Calculations of the employment coefficient.
- Determining the norm of unemployment.
- Withdrawal of the percentage ratio of natural unemployment.
The first coefficient determines the specific number of the adult population, which has direct employment in the production process across the country. The second indicator is the number of unemployed in the percentage ratio to the number of workers. The last indicator is the percentage of the unemployed and workers at the time of economic well-being.
It is important to understand that unemployment rate or its levelmay constantly change in mind the effect of production. Depending on the cycle, namely, growth or decay of the economy and variability of production, technical progress, depending on the qualifications of employees, the professionalism of hired personnel. If the tendency of the unemployment level falls down, then the expansion and rise of production occurs, otherwise there is an increase in the indicator. Moreover, the dynamics of GNP and unemployment are inextricably linked.
Unemployment is possible consider in such aspects:
- Forced.
- Registered.
- Marginal.
- Unstable.
- Technological.
- Structural.
For forced or voluntary Unemployment, as a rule, the employee itself seeks to work at a certain level of wages and certain conditions, but can not get a job. Or the employee does not want to work on low wages (voluntary unemployment). The second option tends to strengthen with an economic boom or on the contrary - when decledding it decline. The scale and duration of this type of unemployment are envy of the professionalism and qualifications of employees, from the socio-demographic population.
For registered unemployment Part of the unemployed population is looking for work and consists in accounting in the Employment Fund.
Marginal unemployment It is characterized by the lack of work in a weakly protected layer of the population and in social noses.
For unstable Unemployment varieties with a decisive factor will be a temporary problem associated with stopping production growth.
Hidden The form of unemployment is officially not recognized unemployment, and seasonal, the one, which arises only in some sectors of the economy, as far as possible in workers in such production.
There is also technological Unemployment, which is caused by adjusting the production process through the use of the mechanism. With this form, the unemployment, as a rule, increases performance there, but the cost of improving the skills of employees is required less.
There is such a kind of unemployment as institutional
. This species can be described as a combination of the intervention of the trade union or state in the establishment of remuneration, which should be formed on the basis of market demand.
Unemployment may occur Consequently:
- Applications of measures to improve the economic structure. This implies manifestation and implementation of equipment that attain reduced jobs. That is, "machine" production displaces human labor.
- Oscillations at a specific season. This means that the level of certain production takes place to increase or decrease, depending on the time of year, in each individual industry.
- Cyclical economy. With the economic decline, go crisis need to use the human resource can decrease.
- Changes in the demographic picture. The growth in the labor population in this case leads to the inclination of the proportional decrease in the need for labor.
- Political influence on the scope of remuneration.
The emergence of such a socio-economic condition, as unemployment, inevitably entails such effects:
- Changes in economic nature.
- Changes in uneconomical character.
The first case entails:
- reducing the income of funding for the federal budget, by minimizing the receipt of taxes -;
- grow costs as a state burden for financing and payments ,. Rechargeing workers, etc.;
- lower life drops. In particular, persons who lost their jobs lose their wealth, respectively, the level of quality of their life becomes lower;
- the production is reduced due to the fact that there is a lag of actual GDP from potential.
Non-economic changes indicate the increase in the criminogenic situation in the country, an increase in stress in society, as well as provoking public and political riots.
According to the method of international labor organization, the unemployment rate is carried out by dividing the number of unemployed by the number of active population.
Official statistical data
Statistical observation is based on a thorough analysis of the dynamics of the indicator over the years and months. Statistical observation has confirmed official data. The basis of this data is published by Rosgosstat.
As of January 2019, the number of unemployed in the country amounted to about 800 thousand people. At the same time, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation predicts that the number of officially unemployed in 2019 will grow by almost 40% and reaches 1.1 million Russians.
If we consider the situation in separate regions, it should be noted that in Moscow the lowest degree of unemployment - 1.3%, relative to Ingushetia, in which the indicator was 26.2%.
Evaluation of unemployment level on years Allows you to say that since 2011, the indicator has become lower. So, at the beginning of 2011, this level has been fixed at a value of 7.8%. In 2014 and 2015, the unemployment rate had a tendency to increase due to massive staff reduction.
Since the last months of 2013, in the first half of 2014, the unemployment rate was stubbornly held in one place, then a smooth decline in unemployment began until the middle of the summer of 2014. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate began to reach 5.3%, by 2015 this level was fixed in an indicator of 5.8%.
On average, the unemployment rate in Russia has gradually decreased since 2011. So at the beginning of 2000, the figure was 10.6%, then by 2001 he dropped to 9%, the following years he had such an expression - 2002 - 7.9%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2004 - 7.8%, 2005 - 7.1%, 2006 - 7.1%, from 2007 to 2008 The unemployment rate fell to 6%, in 2009-2010 - the level was 8.2%, and starting from 2011 the level gradually decreased.
Statistical data on this indicator are presented in the following video:
Hidden unemployment and its level
In the development of an economic phenomenon, which involves the preservation of the workplace for a particular person, with the preservation of formal relationships with the employer, but not to give him the opportunity to be engaged in the production in fact, appears hidden unemployment. As a rule, it is found during the crisis when the actual labor force is not a necessity.
As a rule, the hidden unemployment rate does not exceed the range from 7 to 10 million people. This indicator has a tendency of adamant growth.
Social protection of unemployed citizens and promising areas of labor
Citizens who actually encountered such an economic phenomenon can take advantage of assistance from state emergency service, have the right to take part in some types of work, receive material assistance in the form of unemployment benefits and so on.
During the crisis, during the growth of the number of unemployed, IT programming employees are now appreciated. It is important to note that it is this field of activity that has demand at all times, since the development of technical progress and design of different systems is valuable not only in the expanses of the country, but throughout the world.
Android and iOS database developers are no less popular. The following are most popular - specialists in the field of transport logistics, auto repair, middle managers in the field of sales, cashiers and workers. Among the latter - movers, nurses, turners and agricultures, postmen. Among the professions that become unclaimed, as a rule, allocate accountants, chefs, drivers and real estate managers.
Causes and prospects
Theories of the development of unemployment There are many, but they can be reduced in three main:
Regardless of the cause of the appearance, the essence of unemployment itself is disaster, since the country, in the macroeconomic plan, there is a huge burden of both economic and social character. In addition to the fact that the instability of the population of the psychological and social aspect develops, political problems appear. After all, the population is eager for constructive solutions and action by the authorities. Moreover, without having a permanent and stable source of income, a person resorts to violation of the law. And it means that social tensions increase, the criminogenic situation increases, etc. The country does not receive GDP production.
FROM unemployment can only be struggling in the complex, taking diverse measures. In particular:
- Creating institutions that will provide assistance in retraining and retraining, improving existing ones.
- Establishment of the process of providing information for the population about vacancies.
- Conduct policies to prevent unemployment.
The rules for calculating the unemployment level are set forth in the following video:
Find out the number of unemployed people. The "unemployed" people are determined by the federal government as people who can work and who are actively looking for work over the past four weeks.
Find out the number of employed people. The employed population includes people who work full time. The same number includes people who work upon themselves if they have partial employment or if they are engaged in family business for more than 15 hours a week, even if this work is not paid. People who are in maternity, creative or ordinary vacation are also considered to be a working population, as they have a workplace where they can return.
Do not take into account people who are not regarded as labor. People who are not considered as labor are those who are not looking for actively work and those who have a different type of employment, such as students, housewives or disabled. It also includes young people under 16 years old and people who are in such institutions such as prison or private care for elderly people and disabled people, people who are in armed forces, retirees, students and disabled people.
- It is important to know who exactly belongs to the labor force to mistakenly not take into account the extra people in not distorting the data.
Divide the total number of unemployed people on the total population - working and unemployed. For example, you have 4 million unemployed people and 40 million working people, it means that we should divide 4 to 44 and get a decimal fraction - 0.09.
- Remember that when you calculate real unemployment, the numbers will not be so neat and correct.
- You may notice that the initial numbers were in millions, but we removed the extra zeros, performing the division of integers. If we divide the numbers with zeros, we will get all the same decimal fraction. Try yourself and make sure that!
Multiply a decimal number 100 and get a percentage. This calculation is easy to implement if you take the comma on two digits to the left, for example, 0.09 will turn into 9%.
Determine the percentage of employed population, taking from 100 the resulting digit. If you go further and want to determine the percentage of the working population, then you need to take the interest rate of unemployment and take it away from 100.
- So, for example, 100 - 9 \u003d 91. This means that the percentage of the working population in our fictional country is 90% or is 90 percent of people who are able to find work and which can work. It already sounds better, isn't it?
(U *) is a level at which it is provided full employment. The most efficient and rational use of it. This means that all people who want to work, find the job. Natural unemployment rate is therefore called unemployment rate with full employment, and the real volume of output, corresponding to the natural level of unemployment, is called natural volume release . Since the complete employment of the labor force means that in the economy there is only friction and structural unemployment, the natural level of unemployment can be calculated as the sum of the levels of frictional and structural unemployment:
The level of breakdown. Nature. (U *) \u003d ur.Ezer. Fricz. (U Friccs) + ur.bezer. Structure. (u structure)
Ur.bezer. eating. (U *) \u003d
The current name of this indicator - not accelerating inflation unemployment - Nairu (Non - Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Nairu - focuses on the fact that this sustainable unemployment rate stabilizes inflation.
Recall the schedule of economic growth and the economic cycle.
Each point on the trend depicting economic growth corresponds to the magnitude of the potential GDP or the state of complete employment of resources (points B and C). And each point on the sinusoid displaying the economic cycle corresponds to the value of the actual GDP (points A and D). If a the actual volume of release exceeds potential (Point a), i.e. The actual unemployment rate is lower than a natural level, it means that the cumulative demand exceeds the cumulative issue. This is a situation supervaluedness.
E. 
if the economy is at the level of potential release (on trend), which corresponds to the natural level of unemployment, inflation is not accelerated. .
The magnitude of the natural level of unemployment changes over time. So, in the early 60s, it accounted for 4% of the workforce, and at present 6% -7%. Cause heost Values natural level unemployment is an increase Duration of time search work, When people are in the unemployed state, due to:
an increase in the amount of payout unemployment benefits;
increase the time of payment unemployment benefits;
rising share of women as part of labor;
an increase in the share of young people in the job market.
The first two factors provide the possibility of finding a job for more
long period of time. The last two factors, meaning a change in the age structure of labor, increase the number of people who first emerged in the labor market and job seekers, and, therefore, increase the number of unemployed, strengthen competition in the labor market and extend the job search period.
Natural unemployment rate - this is the level of unemployment with normal sustainable state economy, around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates. The actual unemployment rate is less than its natural level during the boom (point A in Fig. 1) and exceeds its natural level during the decline period (point D in Fig. 2).
The magnitude of unemployment, equal to the difference between the actual unemployment level and the natural level of unemployment is the third type of unemployment and is called cyclic unemployment.
Cyclic unemployment represents departures from the natural level of unemploymentassociated with short-term fluctuations in economic activity.
Cyclic unemployment - This is unemployment, cause which stands recession (decline) in the economy when actual GDP is less than potential.This means that in the economy there is part-time resource employment, and the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural(Point D in Fig.2). In modern conditions, the existence of cyclic unemployment is associated both with the insufficiency of cumulative expenses in the economy (low cumulative demand) and with a reduction in the aggregate supply. The cyclic form of unemployment is characteristic of the phases of depression and the decline of the economic cycle, i.e. For periods of recession of business activity. With the transition to revitalization and the rise, the number of unemployed becomes less. According to Western economists, during periods of economic recovery and recession, the magnitude of cyclic unemployment may vary from 0 to 10% or more. It was the cyclic decline in production that served as the main reason for the occurrence of unemployment during the Great Depression 1929-1933. At that time, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a high mark - 25%.
The actual level of unemployment It is calculated as the percentage of the total number of unemployed (friction + structural + cyclic) to the total number of labor or as the sum of the unemployment levels of all types.
u. fact. = u. fricz. + u. structure. + u. cycle.
Since the sum of the levels of frictional and structural unemployment is equal to the natural level of unemployment, the actual unemployment rate is equal to the sum of the natural level of unemployment and the level of cyclic unemployment:
u. fact. = u. * + u. cycle.
The level of cyclic unemployment can be like positive value – when decline (recession)when the actual unemployment rate is higher than its natural level and is observed part-time resource employment, so I. negative value – with a boomwhen the actual unemployment rate is less than the natural level of unemployment and takes place overemployment resources.
In the literature there are many other species of unemployment, characterizing its individual features and parties: technological, conversion, youth, voluntary, forced, hidden, partial, institutional, stagnant, etc.
Technologicalunemployment occurs when moving to a new generation of technical support of production, for example: when automation of production requires less jobs, which increases the amount of unemployed.
Conversionunemployment is associated with a reduction in production during the transition to the release of new products or with a change in the structure of demand for labor.
Youthunemployment is due to the fact that graduates of higher or secondary special educational institutions do not find demand for their work due to the lack of qualifications, experience or other reasons.
Voluntaryunemployment is unwillingness to work in some categories of people, for example, in a number of persons belonging to the marginal layers of society, or in housewives under certain conditions.
Forcedunemployment occurs when an employee, having a desire to work, deprived of the opportunity to do it.
Hiddenunemployment includes those employed during an incomplete work week or part of the working day, as well as formally employed when the employee is only listed in the state. The category includes workers who are in forced holidays without salary salary. . The following: 1. This kind of unemployment can be attributed to the open form at any time; 2. The scale of hidden unemployment is very difficult to determine. Hidden unemployment is generated by various reasons: - deep violation of the functioning of market mechanisms. In the command economy, the formal elimination of unemployment was related to maintaining excessive employment enterprises. For example, if two employees use half of their real capabilities at the enterprise, then one workplace is superfluous; - Transformation processes in society, involving the transition from one type of economic system to another type. The peak of hidden unemployment in modern Russia accounted for the very beginning of reforms, the period when the work of the business work was fundamentally changed. Enterprises needed time to adapt. The reduction in production facilities in the country at that period was 40-60%. Many firms were forced to send part of employees to leave without maintaining content and switch to abbreviated operation: three days a week or four-hour working day instead of eight-hour; - The hidden form of unemployment can produce and purely economic reasons, i.e. Market mechanisms themselves. As a result of competition, ineffective enterprises are experiencing the greatest difficulties. Bankruptcy of the enterprise may be a consequence of improper assessment of the market segment, the production of poor-quality products or switching demand for buyers to the product - a substitute.
Partialunemployment is the employment of an employee is not a complete business day.
Institutionalunemployment arises as a result of an insufficiently effective organization of the labor market. In Russia, the work of labor exchange is mainly passive and focused on the payment of unemployment benefits. Active activity involving the study of the labor market opportuncture, predicting its development, retraining and retraining of workers, is poorly presented in the activities of the Russian labor exchange.
Stagnant unemployment - Includes people whofor a long time can not be employed. The dimensions of this form of unemployment are insignificant (according to the ILO data it is less than 1%), according to the degree of negative consequences, stagnant unemployment has no equal. The unemployed lose their professional skills and more than half of such unemployed need socially psychological rehabilitation. The reason for the stagnation of unemployment is unclaiming some professions. This problem is characteristic of small cities or settlements oriented to certain production. In world practice, congestive unemployment is considered a duration of more than a year. In Russia, the unequivocal definition and justification of the stagnation unemployment does not exist. The literature proposed various differentiation of stagnant unemployment under duration: "continuous" - from 4 to 8 months, "long" - from 8 to 18 months, "stagnant" - over 18 months. The problem of stagnant unemployment is relevant worldwide.
Task number 1.
Initial data:
The number of employed in Ean - 85 million people; The number of unemployed - 15 million people. A month later from 85 million people who had work, were dismissed and looking for a job 0.5 million people; 1 million people from among the officially registered unemployed ceased work searches.
Formulation of the problem:
1. Determine the initial level of unemployment?
2. Determine the number of employed?
3. Determine the number of unemployed and unemployment rate a month later?
The unemployment rate is determined by the formula:
- the number of unemployed; - the number of economically active population.Substituting numeric values, we get:
.A month later, from 85 million people who had work were dismissed and looking for a job 0.5 million people, 1 million people. From among the officially registered unemployed, the search for work has stopped.
, .The unemployment rate is a month later, we define:
.Task number 2.
Initial data:
The table presents data on labor resources and employment in the first and fifth year of the period under consideration (in thousands of people.).
| First year | Fifth year | |
| Occupied as part of EAN | 80500 | 95000 |
| Unemployed | 4800 | 7000 |
Formulation of the problem:
1. Calculate the unemployment rate in the first and fifth year of the period under consideration;
2. Explain the simultaneous growth of employment and unemployment?
Employment level \u003d occupied / busy + unemployed * 100%
Unemployment level \u003d unemployed / busy + unemployed * 100%
Unemployment rate \u003d 4800/80500 + 4800 * 100% \u003d 0.06%
Unemployment rate \u003d 7000/95000 + 7000 * 100% \u003d 0.07%
2 Edections
Employment level \u003d 80500/80500 + 4800 * 100% \u003d 0.94%
Employment level \u003d 95000/95000 + 7000 * 100% \u003d 0.93%
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed to the total number of registered workers and employees.
Employment growth is the dynamics of the GDP, unnecessary workers turned out to be in demand at the stage of lifting the economy.
Task number 3.
Initial data:
The table shows the data characterizing the volume of actual and potential GNP (billion rubles). In 1990, the economy developed in full-time employment at the level of unemployment of 6%.
Formulation of the problem: Using the Oaken law, calculate the unemployment rate in 1996 and 1997?
; ; - Oaken coefficient \u003d 2.5%19961997
3705 \u003d 38 × (100-2.5X + 15) 3712.5 \u003d 4125 × (100-2.5X + 15)
95x \u003d 4370-3705, x \u003d 7% 103,125x \u003d 4743.75-37.12, x \u003d 10%
where Y. actual production volume; Y.* potential GDP; and actual unemployment rate; and* Natural unemployment rate; Empirical GDP sensitivity coefficient to cyclic unemployment.
In accordance with the Oaken's law with a small annual increase in the real GNP (not exceeding 2.5%), the unemployment rate is preserved almost constant, and with a deeper change of GNP 2% of its changes, the unemployment shift in the opposite direction is 1%
GNP is a macroeconomic indicator that represents the cost of the country produced within the market price during the year of the final product.
