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Introduction to work
Relevance of the research topic. The main characteristics of the current stage of the development of the global economy are the processes of transnationalization and globalization, which consequences the growth of the interdependence of national economies. Moreover, in the past two decades, the National Economic Factor develops more and more in geopolitical, capable of providing certain national interests.
From this point of view, Russia today is in a difficult economic situation. According to the economy competitiveness index for 2010-2011. Russia is located at the 63rd place out of 139 (by 64 - Uruguay). The main factor in the growth of GDP and currency revenues is an increase in the volume of production or prices for hydrocarbons. The decline in production continues, especially in industries related to the introduction of new equipment and technologies. Consequently, the pace and scale economic Development Currently, almost completely predetermined by capital investments in fixed assets, and overcoming the decline in investment in the economy and increasing the possibilities of economic entities in this regard are one of the central tasks. The situation aggravates the World War economic crisis and the growth of intercountry competition for capital.
There are different points of view regarding the impact of influx foreign capital The economy of the host country and the directions of state regulation of the investment process, however, in favor of the hypothesis about the key role of investments in economic growth, the experience of the countries with a market economy, which carried out a sharp jump in economic development in the period after the Second World War. In the overwhelming majority of these countries, the state played an active role in the process of regulating the investment process.
The problem of determining the optimal volume and the structure of investments to ensure economic growth and development arose in Russia, as well as in other social, still in the transformation period (1990-2005), i.e. At the stage of transformation of the socio-economic system from socialist to capitalist. At the same time, the lack of experience in the implementation of such transitions in the past was the cause of significant difficulties that Socially faced in the process of building a market economy. To achieve this goal, they went different ways, while the choice of a specific reform strategy was ultimately depended on the set of factors, including from the state of the economy at the time of the transformation, the degree of implementation of market management methods in the socialist past, geopolitical, foreign economic, national cultural orientation, etc.
Common for the former socialist states is the use of foreign capital to solve economic development problems due to the limited domestic resources to finance the reorganization of the economy and, as a result, finding an optimal way to regulate the inflow of foreign capital.
It should also be noted that in the absence of relevant experience, the influx of foreign capital represented for these countries a relatively new phenomenon. In this regard, the national regulation did not immediately reflect the focus on attracting direct foreign investment, i.e. With their task not only to obtain income, but also establishing direct control and management of the object of investment, expanding the sphere of influence, ensuring future financial interests.
At the same time, it is the difference between the approaches of the Socratran to attract foreign capital to solve the problems of reforming the economy and ensure economic development makes it possible to study the experience of these states in order to use it in Russia to ensure a more effective relationship between foreign investments and the needs of the economy, extracting greater benefits from foreign Capital in accordance with the priorities of the economic development of Russia.
The countries of the Visegrada Group achieved the greatest return on foreign investment in the post-Soviet space. This group was created in February 1991. Following the meeting of the leaders of Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia, and integrating the participating countries to European economic and geopolitical space. This task to the countries of the Visegrad Group as a whole were solved only by the end of the transformation period, the key feature of which was the creation of a favorable investment climate. At the same time, much attention was paid to the role of the state in regulating the investment process in order to prevent capital outflow from the country.
Thus, the study of the experience of the countries of the Visegrada group to attract foreign capital and investment regulation may be useful in terms of its application in Russian conditions. The course for attracting foreign investment was taken by Russia, as well as the countries of the Visegrad Group, while the transformation period, but participants in the regional association managed to achieve great success in this regard. Currently, in Russia, the issues of the use of foreign capital for development goals remains relevant. At the end of March 2011, the Government Russian Federation There were instructions to conduct a number of consecutive measures aimed at modernizing the economy and improving the investment climate, the progress of which is located on personal control of the President of the Russian Federation.
The study of the experience of transformational period by the countries of the Visegrad Group will reveal factors, thanks to which these countries managed to more successfully attract foreign capital for their development goals, which can be used to create a favorable investment climate in Russia and strengthening legislative base in the field of investment and, as a result, increasing competitiveness russian economy and strengthening Russia's position in the global market.
The degree of development of the problem. The relevance of the chosen theme is determined by the insufficient theoretical study of many aspects of this problem. So, theoretical basis The movements of capital and its applications are considered in the works of A. Smita, K. Marx.
The wide range of issues of transformation of the economies of recipient countries of foreign capital was investigated in the writings of such scientists as M. Blomstrom, E. KennzStain, J.Danning, A. Kokko, R. Lips, J.Murcugen, N.Kampos, Y. Kinoshit, .Hackman, S.Dyankov, R.Kayivz, B.Kamnsky, R. Pavlichenko, R. Khasbulatov.
In the historical and economic literature, there are few works on the history of the period of the formation of post-socialist economies, although the work of such leading domestic and foreign scientists, such as A.G.Agangan, L. Baltserovich, Yu.A. Kurko, are devoted to various aspects of the problems of the transformation period in post-socialist states. .V. Butorsina, E.T.Gaidar, M.V. Sershov, I.D.Ivanov, I. Kornai, V.M. Kudrov, A.D.nekipelov, A.OSlund, V.P. Fedorov, N .P.Shmelev, E.G. Yasin.
In connection with this, work is essential for dissertation studies to study the role of foreign capital in the countries of the Visegrad Group, published in the participating countries of this regional association.
Despite the large amount of sources used, there is no lack of comprehensive work In Russian, containing theoretical and historical aspects of the study of the experience of this regional association to attract foreign capital. In particular, this concerns the relationship between the regulation of foreign capital inflows and the degree of implementation market mechanisms The countries of the Visegrad group in the transformation period, between their competitiveness of their economies in the context of the globalizing world and the degree of openness for foreign capital, as well as factors determining the inflow of investments at different stages of the transition period.
The purpose and objectives of dissertation research.
The purpose of the dissertation work is to analyze the historical and economic foundations of the transformation process of the economies of the Visegrad Group and the strategies of the incoming regional Association Countries to attract foreign capital to identify factors ensuring the successful use of foreign investment for the purpose of transforming national economies, integration into the global economic space and solving the problems of economic development, as well as their applications in the Russian conditions at the present stage.
The goal, set in work, demanded solutions to the following tasks:
spend comparative analysis strategies to overcome the transformation downturn and ensuring economic growth in the countries of the Visegrada Group;
identify the features of the transition period by the countries of the Visegrad Group;
consider the approaches of the association countries to the issue of attracting foreign capital and regulating this process;
examine the dynamics of foreign capital inflows to the countries of the Visegrad group in the transformation period and the factors determined;
analyze the influence of the volume of attracting foreign capital on the course of the implementation of national programs for the economic development of the countries of the Visegrada Group;
examine and evaluate the possibility of using the experience of the countries of the Visegrad Group to attract foreign capital in the conditions of modern Russia.
The object of the study is speaking The countries of the Visegrad Group in the transformation period.
Subject of research is developed by the countries of the Visegrad group economic policy By overcoming the transformational decline, the most important part of which was the attraction of foreign capital.
Field of study. The dissertation study was conducted under Section 2. Economic history p.2.4. History of experience and methods of transformation economic Systems (stages of the evolution of systems, transitional eras, social revolutions, economic reforms) of the specialty 08.00.01 - Economic theory of the passport of the specialties of the WAK RF (Economic Sciences).
Chronological framework Studies include the period from 1990 to 2005. This time interval covers the initial economic reforms in the countries of the Visegrad Group and the formation of a favorable investment climate, a period of large-scale attraction of foreign capital to solve the problems of economic development and the stage of transition to the modern state of the economy, where foreign capital is an innovative engine.
Theoretical basis of the study The work of the leading domestic and Western economists on transformation issues in the economies of foreign capital recipient countries, the problem of the transformation period in post-socialist states, the classical and modern theories of economic growth, the international movement of capital, industrial organization and international trade.
Methodological basis Studies are the principles of dialectics, allowing the inconsistency of the influence of the object of study on the economy of the countries of the Visegrada group in the transformation period, a structural-functional approach, which makes it possible to identify the system of links between the object and the subject of the study, as well as the principle of the unity of logical and historical approaches to the analysis of phenomena, relationships and the relationships that existed between foreign investments and the economic growth of the countries of the Visegrada group during the period under review.
Information Base These national statistical committees of the studied states and international organizations (IMF, the World Bank, UNCTAD, UN, ECOSOS, etc.), materials of international and Russian seminars, conferences, international research institutes are served. The work also used various legislative and regulatory documents.
Scientific novelty dissertation work It is that for the first time in the domestic scientific literature, a comprehensive comparative analysis of the strategies for the completion of the transformation period and achieving economic growth by the countries of the Visegrad Group were identified specific features Overcoming the countries of this unification of the transformational downturn, the conditions for increasing the dynamics of foreign capital inflow to the countries of the Visegrad Group are formulated, the influence of the process of attracting foreign capital to the success of the implementation of national economic development programs of the mentioned states is estimated, the possibilities of adapting the experience of the Experience of the Visegrad Group in the field of attracting foreign capital to modern Russian Conditions to solve the task of modernizing the economy. The work uses little-known in the domestic science of work in the Czech and Slovak language.
The main results of the study, submitted to defense:
It has been established that two major strategies for the transition to the Visegrad Group used market economyDeveloped under the influence of the recommendations of the global community, primarily the IMF and the IBRD - radical and gradualist. Based on both of the same mechanisms - liberalization of prices, imports, wages in combination with anti-inflation measures, control over state expenses and a decrease in the tax burden, privatization, attracting foreign capital. They differed in the main periods of the reforms, the scale of institutional transformations and the intensity of stabilization measures. The gradual model has become possible only in Hungary thanks to the reforms held in the country since 1960, which prepared the base for transformations of the 1990s.
It was proved that the countries of the Visegrad Group had advantageous starting positions at the time of the start of the transformation period compared to other former social, which predetermined the relatively painless overcoming of the transformation downturn and the rapid pace of economic and democratic transformations.
It is reasonable that the most significant factors for increasing the dynamics of foreign investment influx were the successful implementation of reforms, economic stabilization, high growth potential of this region and stable tax systems. No less important factor was that countries Western Europe, as well as OECD, EU, and NATO began to actively contribute to the restoration of direct economic and political relations with the Eastern partners in the continent.
It has been proven that foreign capital played an important role in the process of overcoming the countries of the Visegrad group of the transformational decline and acceleration of reforms.
Based on the analysis of the experience of the countries of the Visegrada Group, the basic principles were revealed to be guided in comprehensive measures to modernize and reform the economy.
Theoretical significance Research is an analysis of the peculiarities of the formation of post-socialist economies on the example of the countries of the Visegrad Group and the compliance of the strategy in the field of attracting foreign capital by the national priorities of economic development. The results of the work can be used during the further development of the problem of optimizing national regulation of foreign capital flows in order to maximize the positive effect on investment at minimum risks for economic security countries.
Practical value The work consists in the possibility of using the results obtained to assess the effectiveness of existing courses in the field of attracting foreign capital in terms of the interests of the national economy.
Recommendations may also be useful for Russia and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, in which national strategies and the institutional framework of attracting foreign capital are not recovered from the point of view of creating such conditions for foreign capital that would ensure not only the influx of responsible for the development goals of foreign direct foreign Investments in the relevant industries, but also the protection of the interests of national manufacturers, contributing to the growth of their competitive opportunities.
Materials of the work were used in higher educational institutions in conducting classes on the relevant topics within such economic disciplines as "economic theory", "Economy History", " National economy"," Regional Economics "," The Evolution of the World Market "," Economic Combativatting ", etc., in the activities of Research Organizations.
Approbation of work It is to publish its basic provisions and conclusions in domestic and foreign scientific publications, including in magazines included in the list recommended by the WAK RF.
The main conclusions of the dissertation study are outlined by the author in scientific reports at international scientific and practical conferences: Innovative Economy: Modern Theory and Practice, Rea them. G.V. Plekhanova - March 2010; Actual problems of historical and economic research, Ra them. G.V. Plakhanova - November 2010; Modern problems Society development: Economics, Law, Philosophy and Sociology, Volgograd - February 2011.
The dissertation structure. The thesis consists of administration, three chapters, conclusion, a bibliographic list, which includes 120 items, including 54 sources in foreign languages.
In the introduction The relevance of the topic of dissertation research is substantiated, the purpose and objectives of the study are formulated, the subject and object of the study defines, the scientific novelty is disclosed, the theoretical and practical significance is reflected.
In the first chapter The "Theory and Practice of the Transition Economy" are considered the main features of the transition period of the socialist camp countries, the analysis of reforms, which became the beginning of the long path to the market economy. At the moment, researchers call transitional period In the countries of the former socialist camp, unique: after all, the state never faced the task of transformation of its socio-economic system from socialism into capitalism. It is especially interesting that in all countries under consideration, the movement towards capitalism turned out to be non-alternative. The features of the reformist route in individual countries were studied and the results of these reforms were summed up.
In the second chapter "Economics of the countries of the Visegrada Group of Transformation period" The structure of the economy of each country is more detailed, the main problems and prospects for growth are highlighted. Special attention is paid to the role of transnational corporations and the privatization of national enterprises in the process of transformation of the economies of the Visegrad Group.
In the third chapter "The role of foreign capital in the countries of the Visegrad group in the transformation period" the dynamics of the influx of foreign direct investment in the countries under study, the issues of the influence of foreign capital on the economy and possible measures to level the negative effects caused by them are presented, the results of a comparative analysis of the strategies of the Visegrad Group countries regarding attraction foreign capital. Considerable attention is paid to events that took place in the mid-1990s of the last century, when a large-scale capital influx was observed in the countries of Eastern Europe. The macroeconomic consequences accompanying the inflow of capital were considered, the possibility of using the experience of the studied countries to attract foreign capital in the conditions of modern Russia was considered.
In 2008 He graduated from Rae. G.V. Plekhanov, Faculty of International Economic Relations
Since 2009 Works at the Department of History economic Science
In 2011 defended his thesis for the degree of candidate of economic sciences
Teaching activities
Reading courses:
History of Economics, History of Management Thought, History economic exercises, comparative analysis of economic systems
Total work experience
13 years old
Work experience in the specialty
Advanced training / Professional retraining
"Methodology of scientific research", Ra them. G.V. Plekhanova, 05/07/2019-31.12.2019;
"The competences of a modern teacher of economic disciplines", Sol Ruza, 09.2019
"School of the young teacher", Rau them. G.V. Plekhanova, 04/26/2018-29.06.2018;
"Using the Thomson Reuters Functional Reuters for Teaching Financial and Economic Disciplines", Ra them. G.V. Plekhanova, 11/20/2017-19.12.2017;
"Development of electronic educational resources", Ra them. G.V. Plekhanova, 10/20/2017-17.11.2017;
"Linguistic training of higher scientific and pedagogical personnel educational institutions: Academic competences holding a lecture and seminars in English ", Ra them. G.V. Plekhanova, 03/25/2016-12.05.2016;
"Theoretical Economics: Problems and Development Directions", Ra them. G.V. Plekhanova, 04.02.2015-18.02.2015;
Scientific research
Scientific research on the development of historical and economic science, the peculiarities of transformational processes.
Thesis on the topic: "The role of foreign capital in the countries of the Visegrad Group in the transformational period."
As part of a team of 2 people. At the topics: "Formation of mechanisms for long-term financial support for the implementation of infrastructure projects as a factor sustainable development Economy of Russia "(on total 500,000 rubles); "Analysis of the problems of integrating students in the University of Scientific and Organizational and Research Work in order to reproduce the Corporate Human Capital Ra. G.V. Plekhanov "(totaling 468 720 rubles).
Additional Information
Consultations:
Friday: 13: 20-14: 00
Contacts
Kuznetsova Olga Dmitrievna
doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department economic theory Russian Economic University named after GV Plekhanov [Email Protected] Moky Mikhail Stefanovich
doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of Economic Theory of the State University of Management [Email Protected] Kristal Igor Semenovich
candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor political economy and the history of economic science of the Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov [Email Protected] .com Olga D. Kuanetsova
doctor of Economics, Professor of Economic Theory Department Plekhanov Russian University Of Economics [Email Protected] Mikhail S. Mokiy.
doctor of Economics, Professor of Economic Theory Department of the State University Of Management [Email Protected] Igor S. Krishtal
candidate Of Economics, Associate Professor of Economic Theory Department
Plekhanov Russian University Of Economics
New approaches to periodization of economic history
New Approaches to Periodization of Economic History
Annotation. The authors offer a new approach to the analysis of economic relations. The initial item of analysis should be the study of the needs and ways to harmonize them. An important condition for improving economic relations is the formation of freedom of labor and fair exchanges and distribution of goods, coevolution development. Based on the transdisciplinary methodology, new criteria for the periodization of economic history are proposed - the level of human development, the degree of its freedom as a manufacturer of benefits, harmony of needs.
Keywords: periodization, economic history, transdisciplinary methodology, coevolution development, harmonization of needs, noosphere, fair exchange, cycles theory.
Annotation. The Authors Introduce a New Approach to the Analysis of Economic Relations Development. The Starting Point of the Analysis Should Be The Examination of Wants and Ways of their Harmonization. One of the Important Factors of Economic Relations Improvement Is Formation of Labour Freedom and Fair Processes of Exchange and Distribution of Goods As Well As Coevolutionary Development. Based on Transdisciplinary Methodology Authors Present New Economic History Periodization Criteria: Human Development Level, Extent Of His Freedom As A Producer, Consistency of Wants.
Keywords: Periodization, Economic History, Transdisciplinary Methodology, Coevolutiony Development, Harmonization of Wants, Noosphere, Fair Exchange, Cycle Theory.
An analysis of published work on the problems of periodization of economic history allows you to allocate several basic concepts of periodization - event (formational), semantic (civilization), technocratic (technological).
When studying economic history in countries and regions, by industry, it is used, as a rule, traditional historical periodization:
1) Ancient history - 100 thousand years BC - V N.E.;
2) Middle Ages - V-XV centuries;
3) New time - the XVI-beginning of the XX centuries;
4) the newest time since 1914
For Russia, this periodization is somewhat shifted in time:
1) Ancient story: 100 thousand years BC - VIII century. N.E.;
2) Middle Ages - IX-XVII centuries;
3) New time - the end of the XVII - the beginning of the XX centuries;
4) the newest time in Russian history is divided into two periods: the first - 1917-1991; The second - after 1991
In the interests of the development of historical and economic science, the synthesis of existing concepts is needed to build a new periodization of economic history. Event Periodization reveals causal relationships; Civilization - makes it difficult to carry out comparative historical and economic analysis. The technocratic approach is concentrated at the technological stages of the development of the economy. Only the union of the best sides of each approach will allow to implement the prognostic and heuristic potential of economic history.
Allow the problem, in our opinion, allows a transciplinary methodology.
For the first time the definition of the concept of "transdisciplinary" is given by J. Piage. Currently, a transdisciplinary approach as a method of cognition is used in many areas. According to A. Jadzha, there are different types of transdisciplinary. This article uses approach -TransDysciplinality-4, i.e. TransDisciplinary methodology, considering the object being studied as part of a single ordered environment,
which, in turn, has a spatial, information and temporary unit of order. The book of the Russian scientist Mokya V.S. is devoted to the presentation of the essence of the transdisciplinary methodology. "The foundations of transdisciplinality", published in 2009
The parametric table presented on the basis of historical and economic research has the greatest interest in historical and economic research.
In the parameteric table, the first necessary attributes of economic relations chosen the consumption of goods and their production. For the production of goods it is necessary to combine economic elements that have a quantitative sign of information, namely: employees; The tools of labor and objects of labor. As a result of the combination of these elements, a method for producing goods is formed. Created in the process of manufacturing the goods necessary to meet the needs, through the mechanisms of exchange and distribution are adjusted to the consumer. The good features of economic relations include good as such, the technology of production of goods, the method of sharing and distributing goods.
Thus, the necessary eight state parameters (four qualitative and four quantitative) of the "information unit of the order" of economic relations are detected.
Parametric model of historical stages of socio-economic development (hypothesis)
Each parameter defines the unity of this ordered environment and provides its operation. The natural-real form of these parameters will change during the transition from step to step, but their functionality will remain constant. In determining the stages, the traditional, most frequently used, or intersubjective, the names of the formations (stages) of the economic development of the economy were used. Economic relations are formed in the process of meeting the needs arising from people. The primitive principal stage of development was predetermined by the need for joint, collective labor of all to meet the needs of each. Traditionally allocated by the slave and feudal stages and, accordingly, slave-owned and feudal economic relations are based on the features of the needs, production, exchange and distribution of benefits characteristic of those times. They follow the industrial stage, to change which "post-industrial" comes, within which there is a radical change (explosive growth) of needs, technologies. Methods of sharing and distribution changed more slowly. The final stages of the development of economic relations are attributed to the "noosphere". This term was introduced by V.I. Vernadsky and means the highest level of human development. At these stages, the coevolution of human development and the environment is gradually formed, economic relations are harmonized.
Based on the parametric table, a new interpretation of the development of economic relations and their condition was proposed.
Firstly. Such public institutions such as family, genus, faith, education, etc. have decisive influence on the formation of social values. From the dominance of the thesis on the infinity of the needs, it was time to move to the thesis on the need to harmonize the needs, consciously restricting them by each consumer, which will strengthen the relationship between nature and humanity and will ensure the coevolution of their development. Position of V.I Vernadsky that the biomass of the planet is the magnitude of the constant, imposes restrictions on the growth of the population of the Earth. Consequently, at a certain stage of the development of the economy, with unlimited consumption, the population should become a magnitude of constant, constant. This trend has already confirmed demographic situation in developed countries. However, the resources of the Earth will be able to satisfy the reasonable needs of people in the goods goods, despite the growth of the population.
Secondly. Only by the labor of people are created a variety of benefits: some people produce material goods, others create spiritual, intangible; But all these benefits are needed by society. The needs of each person are not the same, therefore, to meet their satisfaction, the exchange and distribution of goods are needed.
In equitable exchange and distribution of goods, public institutions play an important role and, first of all, the state. If real
the state of economic relations complies with the principles of freedom and justice, then economic development becomes more efficient. All other factors are natural, demographic, technological - willify an important, but auxiliary role. The advanced countries became such because they managed to institutionally to ensure the creative development of all their citizens.
The confirmation of the topic expressed is the rapid economic development of the United States from the middle of the XIX century and the development of Russia in the XX century. Bill on the rights and Constitution of the United States, which established equal rights for all citizens, laid the foundation for free economic development, the formation of a strong civil society. The ideas of the Fathers Fathers of the United States about the future of the country were largely closer to the integrapher stage of economic development than the institutional conditions established in other countries. The American state has modernized its economy in a short time: the primitive economy of Aborigines was eliminated, a transformation of a slave-ownership farm in the southern states was carried out, favorable conditions were created for the development of capitalism throughout the country. By the end of the XIX century, the United States from the category of developing states with a catching model of the economy was transferred to the category of leading countries, and by the middle of the twentieth century. Steel world superpower.
One of the first scientists who assumed that each subsequent era not only carries the fingerprint of the previous one and reproduces it the most important elementsBut also speeds up the development of a new era, stimulates the emergence of new economic forms, was the Russian economist I. Kinel. Created by him in the 20s of the 20th century, the theory of economic development found a specific confirmation in the economic history of the United States, the USSR and other countries.
An example of rapid economic development is the Soviet Union. The USSR overcame the path from a semi-arms country, weakened by revolutions, wars to the world power for 40 years. Already in 1957, the world's first artificial satellite of the Earth was launched, despite the huge human and material losses in the Great Patriotic War and the difficult post-war recovery of the economy. The October 1917 Revolution has liquidated class differences, proclaimed social equality and freedom of labor. There was a release of creative energy masses, which ensured the accelerated scientific and technical jerk. However, over time, the provision on social equality and free labor has become increasingly declarative, the enthusiasm of people decreased, the economic growth rates fell and the standard of living. economic problems. These and other factors have become the causes of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The stagnation of the Russian economy is currently explained by the fact that economic reformsconducted in the country are carried out in the interests of individual social groups and do not improve the living conditions of the rest of the population. In other words, inconsistent,
half reforms led to the fact that a sustainable request for justice was formed in society. The discrepancy between the evaluation of justice by citizens and the real state of affairs in the field of exchange and distribution is one of the factors that slow down the socio-economic development of Russia.
In countries where the estate, caste, clan differences, privileges and other signs of social inequality are preserved, socio-economic development is not different, as a rule, high dynamics. These include post-Soviet Central Asian states, North Caucasian republics and others.
Thus, the above driving forces and criteria for assessing the level of development of economic relations allow you to form a new approach as a solution managerial tasksand to the methods of sharing and distribution of goods between free manufacturers.
In our opinion, the new periodization of economic history should be based on the assessment of the level of intellectual development of a person, the degree of its freedom as a manufacturer of goods, harmony of human needs.
In our opinion, not a harmony of the needs, the reduction of man to the factor of production, the violation of the coevolution in the production of benefits, injustice in the exchange and distribution of goods is the main causes of the death of civilizations, states, the change of stages (phases) and models of economic development.
Not harmony of needs caused the emergence of industries in the global economy, which do not contribute to the development of a person, an increase in its creative energy. For example, the need for drugs, tobacco is not a harmonious need. However, significant natural and labor resources are spent on the production of these goods.
The desire to justice in the economic and social spheres is the main cause of social transformations - from reforms to revolutions.
Thus, the proposed stages of the development of socio-economic relations allow you to determine the vector of their changes. However, for effective development management, it is necessary to determine not only the direction of changes, but also quantify the duration of periods and cycles of development.
The fundamental meaning of Kondratyevsky "Rising and Lower Waves" in economic development is that their presence implies the relationship of subjective processes with objective laws and the laws of development. In this regard, the development of the concept of economic development based on objective patterns will allow the economic history to gain an objective, "regulatory component", which, in turn, will significantly reduce the amount of discussions on possible models of economic growth, as well as the scenarios of the economic development of local communities and world economies. .
The use of temporal and information models of order and transdisciplinary approach allows to substantiate the objectivity of the development cyclicity, disclosed by N.D. Kontrayev. According to the calculations we spent, when founding in a specific "temporary layer", you can observe economic phenomenawhich can be assigned:
To the cycles of true (reference) periods, the duration of which in the earthly years is equal to: 1.4; 2.8; 5.6; 11.2; 22.4; 44.8; 89.6; 179.2, etc. of the year.
To the cycles of real periods, the duration of which is: 2; four; eight; sixteen; 32; 64; 128; 256, 512, etc. years
To the cycles of the synchronization of the real period with a true (reference) period, the duration of which is equal to: 3.5; 7; fourteen; 28; 56; 112; 224, 448, etc. years .
The studies carried out make it possible to conclude that N.D. Kontrayev cycles are most likely necessary to refer to the latest cycles of synchronization cycles.
According to transdisciplinary methodology, the economic cycles considered in the context of development are its consecutive stages, or periods. Thus, each rising and downward wave initially has the special distinctive features of economic relations that should be considered when studying and forecasting. At the same time, the features of each Kondratyevsky cycle will be determined by the sign of a higher-level cycle, therefore, each period will be different in the special state of development and the specific features of economic relations.
In addition, according to a temporary model of the order, the development of countries and their unions has the same period of periods and cycles. Despite this, the nature of the processes occurring in their own reduced and boil waves will be determined by a sign of the wave of the global economy.
Studies of local communities, as well as world economy, conducted using these models, allowed the following results. Economic development of Russia, countries of the Customs Union, BRICS, EU, USA are in different periods own economic development. Stability of economic relations within the state and as part of the Union is due to the fact that every state or their union is synchronized with the dominant process of economic development of the Union and the World Economy.
The transdisciplinary model of the economic development of the world economy testifies to the unique situation in late 2016. By this time, several natural cycles of the economic development of the world economy are completely completed at the same time: 224-
summer, 112-year-old and 56-year-old cycles. This circumstance suggests that since 2017, the world economy will enter a three-year strip of predisposition to the global crisis. This crisis may have devastating consequences for the preceding model of global socio-economic order. The difference between the possible global crisis from the previous ones is that to solve problems provoked it, new approaches and methods, fundamentally different from those that society used when leaving the economic and political crises of XX and early XXI centuries.
It should be noted that the need to change the model of socio-economic order is felt for a long time, and every year this need becomes sharper. However, research results make it possible to conclude that the synchronization of natural development periods will require qualitatively new transformations of the model of world socio-economic order. And this transformation will occur. However, preventive measures to create a new model implemented in 2016 can largely weaken the severity of the impending crisis of the world economy. It is possible that in the light of the circumstances discussed, it is advisable to say not so much about new models of economic growth, as the essence of the very concept of "economic growth" in the framework of the new model of the world socio-economic order.
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