The main types of forecasts. Types of political and managerial prediction function and forecasting tasks

Typology of forecasts Can be built on various criteria, depending on the objectives, tasks, objects, objects, problems, nature, prediction period, methods, forecasting, etc. The fundamental is a problem-target criterion: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: search (they were named after research, explosive, trend, genetic, etc.) and regulatory (they were called software, targeted).

Search forecast - Determination of possible states of phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation of the trends in the development of the studied phenomenon in the past and the present, abstracting from possible solutions, the actions on the basis of which are able to radically change the trends, in some cases the self-identification or self-destruction of the forecast. This forecast answers the question: what is likely to happen if the existing trends are preserved?

Regulatory forecast - definition of paths and timing of achieving possible states of phenomena taken as a target. This refers to the forecasting of achieving the desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, goals. This forecast answers the question: What ways to achieve the desired?

The search prognosis is built on a specific scale (field, spectrum) of the possibilities on which the degree of probability of the projected phenomenon is then established. With regulatory forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but already in the reverse order: from this state to the observed trends. Regulatory forecasting in some respects is very similar to regulatory planned, software or project development. But the latter imply the directive establishment of measures to implement certain norms, while the first is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.

Regulatory forecasting not only does not exclude the regulatory development in the field of management, but also is their prerequisite, helps to develop recommendations for increasing the level of objectivity and, therefore, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goaling, planning, programming, design, directly organization of management. As a result, some experts allocate a number of predictions (search and regulatory), according to the correlation criteria with various forms of concretization of management.

Target forecast Actually the desired states answers the question: what exactly is preferably and why? IN this case There is a construction on a specific scale (field, spectrum) of the possibilities of a purely valuation function, i.e. Distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimally (with a compromise to several criteria). Orientation - facilitating the optimization of the process of goal.

Planned forecast (plan-forecast) of the implementation of the execution (or non-fulfillment) of the plans is essentially developing search and regulatory information for the selection of the most appropriate planned standards, tasks, directives with the detection of unwanted to be eliminated by alternatives and with careful clarification of direct and remote, indirect consequences of the received planned solutions. This forecast answers the question: how, in what direction to orient planning to effectively achieve the goals?

Software forecast Possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the intended desired state of the projected phenomenon answers the question: what is specifically necessary to achieve the desired?Searching and regulatory forecast developments are important to answer this question. The first reveal the problems that need to be solved to implement the program, the second define the conditions of implementation. Software prediction should formulate a hypothesis of possible mutual influences of various factors, indicate hypothetical terms and order of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, however, the selection of the development opportunities for the object of study, started by planned forecasting.

Project forecast Specific images of a particular phenomenon in the future, during the assisted series, there are still no missing conditions on the question: how (Specifically) is it possible how it can look like? The combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Project predictions (they are called other forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to promote the selection of optimal options for promising design, on the basis of which then the real, current design should be deployed.

Organizational forecast current solutions (in relation to the field of management) to achieve the desired state of the phenomenon, the goals set on the question: in what direction to orient the decisions to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire complex of organizational events, thereby increasing the overall level of management.

Under the probe period - the time interval to which the forecast is calculated, the operational (current), short, medium, long-term and long-term (ultral-term) forecasts differ. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which significant changes in the object of the study are not expected - neither quantitative or qualitative. Short-term - on the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly high-quality. The medium-term covers the perspective between short and long-term with the predominance of quantitative changes over quality, dalsestone (super long-term) - perspective when such significant qualitative changes are expected that essentially we can only talk about the most common prospects for the development of nature and society.

Operational forecasts include, as a rule, detailed quantitative assessments, short-term - total quantitative, medium-term - quantitative and high-quality, long-term - qualitative and quantitative and dies - general qualitative assessments.

Temporary gradation of forecasts is relative and depends on the nature and purpose of this forecast. In some scientific and technical forecasts, the execution period even in long-term forecasts can be measured by days, and in geology or cosmology - millions of years. In socio-economic forecasts, according to national economic plans and, in accordance with the nature and pace of development of projected phenomena, the following time scale is empirically installed: operational forecasts - up to one year, short-term - from one to five years, medium-term - for five to ten years, long-term - For the period up to fifteen - twenty years, daroxy - outside the long-term.

However, there are differences related to the peculiarities of certain sectors of socio-economic forecasting. Thus, in the sphere of politics, the range between short and long-term is narrowed to the limits of the next decade, in urban planning - stretches for a whole century (since in the coming decades most of the objects are already designed and possibly only operational forecasting), in the economy - adapts to the ranges of national economic plans etc.

4 Question

21 foresight and forms of religious foresight (+ lecture)

It seems necessary to enter general concept, uniting all varieties of obtaining information about the future, is an anticipation that is divided into scientific and unscientific (intuitive, ordinary, religious, etc.). The scientific foresight is based on the knowledge of the patterns of nature development, society, thinking; intuitive - on the premonitions of a person, ordinary - on the so-called everyday experience related to the analogies, signs, etc.; Religious - on faith in supernatural forces, predetermining the future. There is also a mass of superstition on this.

Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when it is still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and the present suitable for the purpose of obtaining scientific knowledge about them as if they belonged to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentation), the mental reconstruction of antiquity monuments using the scientific foreclosure toolkit (reconstructive foresight), assessment of retrospectives from the present for the past or from less distant to a longer past (reverse foresight), assessment of retrospectives from the past to A true or more far to the less distant past, in particular, to test the methods of foresight (simulation foresight).

The foresight affects two interrelated aggregate of the forms of its concretization: related to the probation category - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and conjugate control-related management category - predictional (prescriptive, or prescription). Prediction implies a description of the possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the future problems. Preparation is associated with the actual solution of these problems, using information about the future for the purposeful activities of the individual and society. The prediction is poured into the form of premonition, anticipation, prediction, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - subconscious. Sometimes this concept extends to the entire area of \u200b\u200bthe simplest leading reflection as the properties of any organism. Pre-coming (complex anticipation) carries information about the future on the basis of life experience, more or less faithful to the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept extends to the entire area of \u200b\u200bcomplex leading reflection, which is the property of the highest form of motion of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in previous values) should mean with such an approach a special scientific research, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of the phenomenon.

Preparation performs in forms of goaling, planning, programming, design, current management decisions. Goaling is the establishment of a perfectly suggested result. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity to achieve a pre-installed goal under certain means, converting information about the future in directive for targeted activities. Programming in this series of concepts means the establishment of basic provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or a sequence of specific measures to implement plans. Design - creating specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. The management as a whole as it integrates the four listed concepts, since the same element is based on each of them - the decision. But management decisions are not necessarily carrying planned, software, design. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are the last step of concretization of management.

These terms can be defined as processes of forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, organizational solutions. From this point of view, the forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment of the prospects, possible states of one or another phenomenon in the future and (or) on alternative paths and the timing of their implementation. The goal is to resolve the suggestive result of the activities. The plan is a decision regarding the system of measures providing for the order, sequence, deadlines and means of their implementation. The program is a decision regarding the totality of the activities necessary for the implementation of scientific and technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program may be a suspension solution, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. The project is a decision regarding a specific event, facilities, etc. necessary to implement this or that aspect of the program. Finally, the solution itself in this row Concepts - ideally suggested action to achieve the goal.

Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, the "prediction" takes the form of "revelation", the procurement (prophecy), divination, and "prediction" - the form of "predetermination", wicked, spells, requests of prayer, etc. But all this (as well as the form of concretization of intuitive and ordinary foresight ) is a special topic.

It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Excluding this connection it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual ratio with control. In predictions, a volitional beginning may prevail, and then appropriate goals, plans, programs, projects, generally solutions are voluntarist, subjectivist, arbitrary (with increased risk of non-optimality, insolvency). In this regard, it is desirable to prevent them with an objective, research began to be scientifically based, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions.

The most important ways of scientific substantiation of predictions are the description (analysis), the explanation (diagnosis) and the prediction (forecast) are the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such a justification. However, its practical significance is reduced to the possibility of increasing with its help the effectiveness of the decisions made. Only due to this, the forecasting over the past decades has adopted an unprecedented scale, it became an important role in the management processes.

Forecasting does not boil down to attempts to predict the details of the future (although in some cases it is essential). The predosist comes from the dialectical determination of the future phenomena, from the fact that the need to break the way through the chance that there is a probabilistic approach to the phenomena of the future possible options. Only with this approach, the prediction can be effectively used to select the most likely or most desirable, optimal option when justifying the goal, plan, program, project, is generally solutions.

Forecasts must precede the plans, contain a stroke assessment, consequences of execution (or non-fulfillment) of plans, cover everything that is not amenable to planning, decision. They can cover in principle any length of time. The forecast and plan differ in ways to operate information about the future. Probabilistic description of a possible or desirable is a forecast. A policy decision on measures to achieve a possible, desirable is a plan. The forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But that the plan was effective, optimal, it must precede the forecast, if possible, continuous, allowing scientifically to justify this and subsequent plans.

As you know, most modern economists are confident that in market conditions the state is obliged to manage the economy, and consequently, to foresee the consequences of the decisions made. The real economic policy of the state is expressed in determining the degree and methods of impact on all subjects economic relations. It is especially important for the state to be able to reduce (or liquidate) the influence of negative factors on socio-economic processes and stimulate the impact of positive factors. It is forecasting that can provide identification of such relationships.

Forecasting means Special scientific research aimed at identifying the prospects for the development of the phenomenon or process. The term "prediction" itself translated from Greek means "knowledge of vingo."

Forecasting economy expands the database for sustainable and long-term relationships between business entities and government agencies Control. And the other forecasts are necessary to generate long-term economic Policy. In many countries, national and regional programs and strategic plans for the development of the economy are successfully applied, which are based on economic forecasts.

Forecast - This is a probabilistic scientifically substantiated judgment about the state of the object in the future, about alternative ways and the timing of its achievement. The forecast must meet the following requirements:

at the time of statement, it is impossible to definitely determine its truth and falsity, since the forecast concerns the unobservable event;
it must contain instructions on the spatial and time interval, within which the projected event will occur;
at the time of the statement, it is necessary to have a prediction verification methods, with which you can estimate the accuracy and reliability of the forecast.

Process development process It is that with certain methods to process existing information about the object of forecasting and obtain an idea of \u200b\u200bthe directions of its evolution based on the analysis of the trends of its development.

Tasks, functions and principles of economic forecasting

Economic forecasting is designed to solve a dual task :

on the one hand, to give an objective scientifically based picture of the future, relying on processes today's day;
on the other hand, choose the direction of activity and policies of modernity, taking into account forecast estimates.

Along with this, an important task of forecasting can be called and identifying in the present factors that will have an impact on the process under study in the future.

The main function of forecasting Conducting scientific analysis socio-economic processes and trends, as well as in anticipation of new economic situations and identifying nodal economic problems. The main functions of forecasting are also In the study of objective relations of socio-economic phenomena and processes in specific conditions, a certain stage Development of the economy and society, in assessing the object of forecasting, in identifying possible alternatives to the development of the economy in the future, in the adoption of optimal solutions.

Principles of forecasting vary depending on economic conditionsthat exist on one or another historical stage The development of society. For example, when moving from planned economy to market economy In our country, such principles were gradually gone as the principle of combining policies and economics, the principle of planning policy and others.

In market conditions, allocate the following principles on which the forecasting process is based. :

scientific validity of the forecast - development with the help of scientific methods, taking into account the patterns of the development of nature, society and thinking;
continuity of forecasting - the forecast must be constantly corrected taking into account the change in the situation in the country's economy;
the combination of prospective and current forecasting - these types of forecasting are carried out in relationships, but priority is given to perspective forecasting;
coherence of forecasts - the developed forecast should be interconnected with related forecasts;
multivariate, alternativeness of the forecast - It is recommended to develop several options for the forecast (optimistic, pessimistic, realistic) so that in case of change in the situation, use another option;
the choice of main factors - when predicting, the basic factors affect the process under study should be included in the calculations;
the system development system - the prediction process should be considered, on the one hand, as a single holistic system, and on the other, as a complex system consisting of separate independent blocks;
verification of forecasts - Forecast estimates must be reliable and justified;
adequacy - the maximum approximation of the forecast model to real reality, trends, laws;
profitability - the effect of the developed forecast should exceed the cost of its development.

Principles of forecasting provide methodological unity of various methods and prediction models.

Classification of forecasts on various features

Different researchers offer various signs of the classification of forecasts.

For the purpose of developing forecasts are divided on search and regulatory. Search based on finding out the future development of the investigated phenomenon while maintaining the trend of the past. Regulatory take into account pre-set goals, certain paths and timing of their achievement. They are developed from the specified state in the future, taking into account the existing trends.

According to the time horizon, the following types of forecasts are distinguished :

operational forecasts, which are developed for a period of up to one month and contain only quantitative indicators;
short-term forecasts developed for up to one year and containing common quantitative indicators;
medium-term forecasts developed for a period of 1-5 years and containing both quantitative and general qualitative estimates;
long-term forecastsdeveloped for a period of 5-15 years and containing common quantitative and general qualitative indicators;
dalopy forecasts, which are developed for a period of over 20 years and contain common qualitative characteristics.

In its content, forecasts are :

economic forecasts - provide information on the development of any economic indicator;
demographic forecasts - cover the movement of the population and reproduction labor resources, level and structure of employment of the population, etc.;
social forecasts - represent information about the level and quality of the life of the population;
environmental forecasts - provide information on the change in the environmental situation in the country, city, regions, etc.;
forecasts natural resources - contain information on the needs of society in natural resources and on the possibilities of their use, covering all types of public reproduction and natural environment;
scientific and technical forecasts - consider the achievements of scientific and technological progress.

According to development methods, forecasts are divided on intuitive and formalized. Intuitive rely on information obtained according to experts. In some situations, only these predictions can be used in prediction (for example, when the forecasting object is new and there is no statistical information about it, the forecasting object is complex and its development affects many factors). Formalized are based on the actual information about the object. Statistical data are processed by specialists using formalized methods.

On the scale of forecasting allocate :

macroeconomic forecasts (the object of forecasting is a country as a whole);
structural forecasts (interregional, inter-sectoral, etc.);
forecast of the development of sectoral complexes;
regional forecasts (the object of forecasting is the region);
forecast of primary units of the economy (object - enterprise, firm);
global forecasts (object - the world as a whole, major world regions).

On the scale of the forecasting allocate: 1)

macroeconomic and structural forecasts; 2)

complexes national Economy (Forecasts for the development of utilities, health care systems, education, cultural and art, population living standards, etc.); 3)

forecasts are sectoral and regional;

By time progress, the forecasts are divided into:

operational - up to one year;

short-term - from one year to three years;

medium-term - from five to ten years;

long-term - from ten to twenty years;

dalopy - over twenty years.

In the direction of forecasting, the forecasts are divided into search and target.

The search prediction is based on the conditional continuation into the future of the development trends of the object under study in the past and present. His task is to find out how the object under study will develop while maintaining existing trends. Examples of such a forecast are forecasts of marriages, divorce in society, unemployment, etc. The main method of forecasting is extrapolation.

According to the modern classification, search prediction can be two types:

a) traditional (or extrapolyative);

b) innovative (or alternative).

The traditional method suggests that the development of an object (for example, social sphere) It happens and will happen smoothly and continuously, i.e. All those identified in the past trends in the development of the forecasting facility will be preserved. Therefore, the forecast may be a simple projection (extrapolation) of the past into the future.

If the forecast is not based on the analysis of the impact on the development of various factors, i.e. On multi-factor analysis, but uses the dependence of the indicators only on time (ie trend indicators), then such a forecast is called "naive".

Basically, the "naive" forecast is used in stable economic systems for forecasting macroeconomic indicators (Employment, etc.).

An innovative approach, in contrast to the traditional, comes from the fact that the development of the object does not flow smoothly and continuously, but scaching and intermittently. An innovative approach is also called alternative, as it assumes that there are many options for the future development of the facility. But it must be remembered that the traditional approach, excluding only the "naive" forecast, suggests the variation of the formulation. For example, the development of options that differ in various values \u200b\u200bof predicted factors affecting the studied indicator, but not affecting the influence of various activities provided for in the forecast. IN agriculture - This is the weather (drought, favorable days, early frosts, etc.).

The target forecast is predicting from the future to this, as if predicting "on the contrary." In this case, the desired finite development parameters (target) are established at first, and then the necessary financial, material and labor resources are determined. Such forecasting is also called regulatory target. For example, a forecast of the dynamics of meat products consumption by the population of the region under existing physiological consumption standards is drawn up. The main method of forecasting is interpolation.

The target forecast in contrast to the search, is developed on the basis of predetermined desired purposes. His task is to identify ways and timing of achieving possible states of object forecasting in the future, taken as a target. While the search prognosis is repelled when determining the future state of the facility from its past and present, the target forecast is carried out in the reverse order: from a given state in the future, the presence of material, financial and other resources necessary to achieve the goal, to existing trends and their Changes in the light of the goal. This forecasting is also called regulatory, because Set goals are often based on par standards.

Target prediction is usually used in cases where there is no sufficient information on the development of the facility in the past, and, therefore, it is impossible not only to conduct multifactorial analysis and modeling, but even identify progressive development trends.

Entity and value of forecasting

Many modern economists are convinced that in the conditions of the market, the state must regulate the economy and, accordingly, to be able to foresee and predict the consequences of the decisions made. State regulation of the economy should include the definition of methods, as well as the degree of impact on market mechanism. The most important is the ability of organs state regulation The economy reduce the influence of negative factors on economic processes and, at the same time, to stimulate the impact of positive.

Forecast It is a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the future state of the object, about the timing of the achievement of this state, about alternative scenarios and ways to achieve the desired state of the object and. t. d.

Process development process It is that with the help of certain methods to process presentation of information about the forecast object and, as a result, to obtain a certain understanding of the main directions and scenarios for its development.

Functions and forecasting tasks

Forecasting should solve such basic tasks:

giving a scientifically substantiated, objective picture of the future (based on processes occurring in the present and identification of development trends)
choose policies and activities (when considering forecast estimates).

The main function of forecasting It is to conduct a scientific analysis of socio-economic trends and processes, identifying economic problems and anticipation of new economic situations. Prediction functions are also listed in:

study of objective relations of socio-economic processes and phenomena (in specific conditions and at a certain stage of socio-economic development)
in identifying possible alternatives to the development economic System
in the assessment of the forecasting object
in the adoption of optimal solutions.

Classification of forecasts

For the purpose of development Forecasts can be divided into search and regulatory. The essence of search premises is to clarify the future development of the studied phenomena while maintaining past trends. Regulatory forecasts take into account the goals, as well as the paths and timing of their achievement. They are developed from the specified state in the future (when taking into account existing trends).

By temporary horizon Forecasts are classified on:

operational, developed for up to 1 month (they tend to contain only quantitative indicators)
short-term (up to 1 year; contain common quantitative indicators)
medium-term (developed for a period of 1-5 years and contain not only quantitative, but also general quality estimates)
long-term (developed for 5-15 years; containing both total quantitative and general qualitative indicators)
dalmountary (developed for a period of over 15-20 years and contains only common qualitative characteristics).

By its content Forecasts can be:

demographic
economic
environmental
social
scientific and technical, etc.

According to the development methods Forecasts can be classified on intuitive and formalized. Intuitive are based on information obtained mainly by expert assessments. Formalized forecasts are based on the actual information about the object under study.

Skipping forecasting Allocate:

macroeconomic forecasts
structural (inter-sectoral, interregional, etc.)
microeconomic
regional
global, etc.

The main criterion of typology is functional, From the point of view of which forecasts are divided into two main types: search (survey, research, research, trend, genetic, etc.) and targeted (regulatory, program) forecasts.

Search forecast - determination of possible states of phenomenon in the future. A conditional continuation in the future trends in the development of the studied phenomenon in the past and the present, abstracting from possible solutions, the actions on the basis of which are capable of radically changed trends. In this case, the forecast answers the question: what is likely to happen if there is a preservation of existing trends? Such forecasts are also called variant (scenario) calculations.

Regulatory forecast - definition of paths and timing of achieving possible states of phenomena taken as a target. Such a forecast answers the question: What ways to achieve the desired one?

Both types of forecasts perform simultaneously in practice as approaches to forecasting and are used in conjunction. In their combination, the prompting role of predicting as a tool for planning to achieve their goals is clearly shown.

Under the probe period - The period of time on which the forecast is calculated, operational (current), short-term, medium-term, long-term and dies (ultra-strength) forecasts differ.

The operational forecast is designed for the future, during which significant changes are expected in the development of the object of the study - neither quantitative or qualitative.

Short-term - on the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly high-quality. The medium-term forecast covers the future between short- and long-term with the predominance of quantitative changes over quality, dalcountar (ultra-dollar) - to the future, when such significant qualitative changes are expected that essentially we can only talk about the most common prospects for the development of the object.

Operational forecasts include, as a rule, detailed quantitative assessments, short-term - total quantitative, medium-term - quantitative and dies - general qualitative assessments.

In socio-economic forecasts, the following temporary scale is empirically installed: operational forecasts - up to one month, short-term - up to one year, medium-term - several (usually up to five) years, long-term - for a period of over five and up to fifteen-day years, long-term twenty years old.

In states S. transition economy The most demanded short-term forecasts for analysts and state structures (Government, Parliament) at different levels of management. Medium-term forecasts in the period correspond to the time of functioning of the organs government controlled. An example of a long-term forecast is the results of demographic forecasts for the period up to 2050, in accordance with which China will surpass India in terms of population.

According to the object of the study Native scientific, innovative and social scientific (social in the broad sense of the word) predictions are distinguished. In natural forecasts, the relationship between the prediction and predictions is insignificant, close or almost close to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so that here, in principle, only the search prediction is possible with the orientation on the possibility of a more accurate unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In public projections, this relationship is so significant that it is capable of giving the effect of self-sustaining or, on the contrary, self-dedication of forecasts of people based on goals, plans, programs, solutions (including those adopted, based on forecasts). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary, TS Conditional predictions with orientation on improving management efficiency. Technological forecasts occupy in this regard to an intermediate position.

Details of the subtypes of the forecasts are given in the "Working Book for Predicting" (1, p. 13-15). We only note that economic, social, environmental forecasts relate to the group of social science forecasts.

By scale of forecasting Allocate: macroeconomic (national economy) and structural (inter-sectoral, intersectoral, interregional) predictions, forecasts for the development of individual complexes, sectors and regions, forecasts of economic entities, as well as individual industries and products. Note that the objects of macroeconomics are more stable and inertia in their development compared to microeconomics objects.

Division of forecasts depending on the nature of the objects is related to various aspects of the reproduction process. On this basis, the following economic forecasts are allocated: the development of production relations, socio-economic prerequisites and the consequences of technological progress, the dynamics of the economic system (pace, factors and structures), the reproduction of labor resources, employment, economic use of natural resources, investments, the living standards of the population, income and prices consumer demand, foreign economic relations, etc. It should be borne in mind that the separation and isolated consideration of individual elements of the system are untenable from a methodological point of view.