Problems of reproduction of the population in domestic textbooks on political economy Almost no focus. They mainly considered issues of labor reproduction as one of the factors of the production process. In research literature since 1959-1960, much attention is paid to the analysis of the deficit labor resources.
However, statistical data on labor resources remained closed, which did not contribute to raising the level scientific developments This problem. Such a relation to the study of the problem was explained by the abnormality of practice: in this area of \u200b\u200bmanagement, the central government took, as a rule, volitional solutions.
Western Economic Science and tutorial Fees to the problem of population with greater interest. This is caused by the needs of a developed market economy. The number, population structure affects consumer demand, define the state strategy in the labor market, investment and social policy. Transoving Russia K. market economy obliges economic science to change the relation to the study of the problems of the reproduction of the population both in the whole country and in the regional aspect.
Economic science considers the population as the most important factor of economic and social Development And at the same time as an object of such development. This approach is a reflection of reality: the population is the only source of labor labor resources, the concern for the reproduction of which is one of the basic functions of any state. The more fully and the statistics of the number and structure of the country's population, the more practically useful can be recommendations of economists in determining public Policy Employment, investment, redistribution of income, etc.
Given the practical importance of changes in the population and its structure, almost all economically developed countries are attempting to plan demographic processes. As the experience of these countries showed, the success of planning depends on the accuracy of the diagnosis of the causes of changes in the population, quality and timeliness of the censuses, from the use of mathematical methods in modeling the behavior of the population, on accounting of key factors - biological, cultural, social and economic affecting its dynamics.
However, modeling in itself cannot open behavioral factors of this dynamics, without which, as well as excluding impact ambientcannot be implemented realistic demographic policy. There is also feedback: the population is a key factor in economic and social planning at all its stages and levels of international, national, regional. However, population forecasts are usually not confirmed by life.
In this regard, studies of the causes and consequences of population growth and discussion about them are increasingly global. Attention to this problem was particularly intensified in the second half of the XX century. This was explained by the threat of exhaustion. natural resources In connection with the increase in economic growth in most countries of the world and the accelerating increase in the population of the globe.
This problem has become a subject of consideration at the World Population Conferences in Rome (1954), Bucharest (1974) and Mexico City (1984), during which attempts have been made to determine the political means of improving the management of population growth and resources in the interests of humanity.
In the 1960s - 1970s, "neomalted fear" was observed before the consequences of the rapid growth of the population, especially in developing countries, and the growth of personal consumption in industrialized countries. This anxiety was reflected in the reports of the Roman Club. Particularly gloomy were predictions regarding the rapid increase in the population of developing countries and threatening them offensive hunger.
However, in the last decade, the demographic situation has changed: a tendency to reduce the birth rate, and, consequently, the slowdown in the growth rate of the population.
Currently, several patterns are identified and operate in changing the population growth dynamics and its structure with which it has to be considered when developing economic Strategy At the national level.
First, there is a slowdown in the pace of natural growth in the socio-economic level of the country's development. Since the level of economic development of the country is determined by many interrelated factors, the dynamics of population growth is under the influence of no less than their number. The main factors affecting this process should include reassessment of values \u200b\u200bcaused by the growth of income of the population, an increase in the cultural level of the population, improving health care, conscious regulation of the birth of children in the family.
In the same direction there is an increase in the employment of women in public production in economically developed countries, which contributed to the increase in the educational level of women, the creation of new jobs in the field of social services, eliminating discrimination in paying their labor. As a tool for realizing the rights of a woman on labor activity The relevant laws and strict compliance behave in developed countries.
Secondly, the greatest decline The rates of fertility and the natural growth of people around the world happened due to developing countries. The main reason for the appearance of such a trend is the widespread desire of countries with the highest birth rate to implement family planning as composite part national socio-economic policy.
Governments and the public in these countries abandoned the macro-social model, denying special demographic control and based on the assumption that economic and social changes in the country must themselves lead to a change in population. By the 90s, hostility towards family planning programs, which prevail among the leaders of developing countries, weakened. Birth control began to be considered as part of a policy aimed at improving health care, social security, education.
In developing countries, two models for reducing the number of families are implemented in these years. The "Instrumental" model examines the entire population from the standpoint of its abilities to regulate the family and provides for a set of external influence on this process. The model of "disobedience" concentrates attention to deviating groups (teenagers, paurgers, etc.), for which the most different methods are used - psychological, economic (incentives and coercion), etc.
As a result, the last 10-15 years are evaluated by specialists as a historical turning point in world demographic development, which is characterized by a reduction in the growth rate of the world's population. Especially effective fertility regulation policy was in China and South America.
Thirdly, there was a revaluation of the significance of the population in the economic development of the country. As follows from the analysis of the economic development of countries with high natural population growth, poverty is partly due to the inadequate use of human and technological resources. Population growth, experts consider not necessarily an obstacle to development. The productive abilities of people as wealth creators are underestimated. "Population" of the population can contribute to economic growth and social variables. This is evidenced by the experience of new industrial countries, China, etc.
Fourthly, in economically developed countries, a tendency to fall in fertility and the natural growth of the population was clearly discovered. Western European countries are characterized by fluctuations in the dynamics of population since the 20s. The fall in population growth during the Second World War was replaced by post-war beabibum and from the mid-50s to its further increase due to the policy of incentive fertility. Since the end of the 60s, in these countries there is a fall in fertility, a tendency to zero growth of the population, and in some of them mortality exceeds the birth rate, i.e. There is an absolute reduction in the population (Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Denmark, etc.).
Fifth, all economically developed countries, and primarily European, are experiencing the process of pedaching of the population, which in the coming decades will increase. According to experts, by 2025, a quarter of the population of European countries will constitute persons aged 65 years and older. The average age of the population is steadily increasing. This is expressed in the fact that the economically active population is becoming more and more elderly, and among persons over 65, the share of older persons is growing. The fall in the natural population growth and its adoption have far-reaching consequences for economic growth and production efficiency, to neglect which it would be a big mistake.
First of all, it is necessary to take into account that, after these processes, a decrease in the pace should be reduced (and in some countries an absolute decrease in the economic activity of the population. With such a situation, the prospects for economic growth in countries with high natural growth in population and labor resources are more encouraging than in European countries.
The aging of the population increases the economic burden on the relatively declining active population. Such a situation (with unchanged socio-economic conditions) can lead to conflicts between generations, hence the need for their foresight and search for prevention tools.
Among the consequences of aging economically active population, Western researchers identify a decrease in the ability to master new professions and adapt to new technologies (from the point of view of production efficiency, aging has a negative impact, since over time the value wages It grows, and the productivity of labor with age falls). Researchers in connection with this make far-reaching conclusions about the loss of competitiveness of enterprises and entire countries caused by the aging of the economically active population.
The specified trends cannot be neglected, but not necessary and dramatize them. As for the generation conflict, each subsequent is generally more educated than the previous one and more completeness is aware of the continuity of generations. The aging of the population accompanies countries with an increasing level of economic development, which means that they have a more productive and cost-effective economy.
Manufacturers of consumer goods and services with a pedaching of the population have to be considered unconditionally: each age has features in the structure of consumption.
The trends noted here in the dynamics and structure of population are characterized in greater or less, all economically developed and developing countries. This does not exclude differences in these processes. Therefore, to develop economically and socially effective policies, an objective and comprehensive study of all aspects of the dynamics and the structure of the population of each country is necessary. Moreover, this problem should be studied by regions and social groups.
For example, aging inherent in all economically developed countries, inherent in them in time, level, flow rate, etc. France is now the most "old" country (14% of its population make up persons over 65; in 1900 they were 8%). Japan, recently relating to the "young" countries (with 5% of the elderly in 1960), today as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate is experiencing rapid aging of the population.
The study of changes occurring in the dynamics and population structure by the countries of the world for a long period, made it possible to identify a natural tendency called by a demographic transition, or demographic transformation.
Demographic transition - This is the period during which the rate of fertility is reduced to simple reproduction of the population. As the analysis shows, all developed countries have passed to achieve the specified result of three stages in changing the demographic situation in the country. The first stage - for many centuries, modern developed countries had a constant or very slowly growing population, which was a consequence of high fertility and not less high mortality (diseases, epidemics, war).
The second stage is to increase the level of economic development, which led to improved health, nutrition, reduced mortality and increase life expectancy from 40 to 60 years. But the fertility at this stage remained high. As a result, a significant excess of fertility over mortality led to a sharp increase in the population compared to past centuries. However, the third stage has come - a decrease in fertility as a result of increasing the level of socio-economic development. This led to rapprochement of fertility and mortality rates.
Despite the objective nature of demographic transformation, economists still adhere to two opposite views in assessing population growth for socio-economic development. Supporters of the need to reduce the growth rate of the population prove the presence of negative consequences of population growth on economic, social, environmental development in the world.
In defense of its position, they lead poverty, malnutrition, poor health in countries with a rapid increase in population. Supporters of this position represent the relationship of poverty and population growth in the form of a "vicious circle".
According to supporters of this position, the growth of the population is an obstacle to development. Such a point of view continues to adhere to the authors of the "Growth Limits" (Roman Club, 1972). In 1992, the book "Outside Growth", the authors prove that despite the decline in population growth rates, its increase is still exponential, which leads to an inevitable global catastrophe on Earth.
In this position, criticism causes the statement that exponential growth is characteristic of the population and capital. Such an approval is contrary to the theory of demographic transition, or demographic transformation, which is a generalization of the practice of global economic development. It is the growth of capital and the growth of income, consumption, education and cultures of the population, the employment of women in public production leads to simple reproduction of the population.
The example of Japan suggests that to achieve a demographic transition to the XX century. It was not necessary for centuries, and 30-40 years. This result is a consequence of high effective rates of economic growth and huge qualitative changes in the socio-economic development of Japanese society.
Supporters of the second position believe that fears about the growth of the population are inflated. American economist Simon during the exacerbation of the discussion (80s of the 20th century) said that free markets and human ingenuity (he considered the genius of people with the main resource) are able to resolve all population growth problems. Population growth, according to supporters of this position, is desirable because it stimulates consumer demand, increasing the scale of production and reducing productive costs.
The second position finds more confirmation in practice than the first. Japan, China, the Republic of Korea used the human factor to accelerate its economic development, using the third, mixed (extensive-intense) option, which allows to take the able-bodied population using the newest achievements of NTP.
The population of land increases by poor, economically undeveloped countries. As global experience shows, the main way of reducing the growth rate of the population in these countries is the development of a national economy, which allows to increase revenues, consumption, education and culture of the population of underdeveloped countries. As for environmental disasters, then to prevent them richest countries It is necessary to limit their claims to increasing profits and increase the cost of preventing the negative effects of using NTP.
Countries former USSR Abruptly differed in terms of natural growth in population and labor resources. Of the Republic of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan had throughout the Soviet period highest fertility and with the average mortality rate in the USSR - high population growth rates. However, these national republics basically did not experience an excess of labor resources due to the redistribution of the surplus product, high pace capital construction and the creation of new jobs in these regions. Centre
Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States were characterized by a decrease in the birth rate, the natural growth of population and labor resources with all the consequences of these trends.
Industrial areas of the former USSR have experienced chronic labor deficit. The main reason for this deficit had not only economic, but also political. The rate of economic growth in the country was provided mainly by creating new jobs, i.e. on an extensive basis. This process was aggravated by administrative methods to contain internal migration processes of labor resources. Almost all big cities Countries were closed to the free entry of employees, even with the presence of an acute deficit in labor.
In Russia itself, despite the overall tendency to reduce the natural growth of the population, in a number of national districts, the proportion of families with four children and more.
In the XX century Russia twice experienced the influence of demographic catastrophe. As a result of World War I, the pre-war population was restored only by 1926, and after World War II - by 1955 (Table 9). For the entire XX century. The world's population has increased 4 times, including developed countries of the West 2.4 times, developing - 5 times. The population of Russia (in its current boundaries) increased 2.1 times in the same period. In other words, the average annual growth rate of the population of Russia was lower than in the developed countries of the West.
Currently, the analysis of the dynamics of major demographic data speaks not just about the reduction, but on a sharp fall in fertility and a new burst of mortality.
For the 100-year period in Russia twice there was an absolute reduction in population: during the Great Patriotic War and during market transformations. According to the forecast estimates of specialists, the population of Russia is doomed to reduce.
The authors of all given in the table came to this conclusion. 10 options for calculations. By definition of specialists, the tendency to decline will be mainly inertial factors operating in 1991-2000. - unemployment, revenue reduction, health deterioration, decline in social protection of the population, etc.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the forecasts in the change in the population, as already noted, are often unjustified by the tendency to reduce the population of Russia may be unrealized if the country's economy "will work" in a complete measure, population income will increase, will improve social service, And the state will be able to implement effective demographic policies aimed at natural and migratory growth in the country's population.
- Economic theories as a reflection of socio-economic development of society
- The general concept of science and place in it economic theory
- The main features of socio-economic (production) relations
Process of production, reproduction and its phase
- The general concept of the production and reproduction process
- The role and place of distribution in the reproduction process
- Consumption as the final phase of the reproduction process and its prerequisite
System of property relations in the modern economy
- The content of the economic theory of property rights and transaction costs
System of economic interests, motifs and incentives
- Need as a material basis of economic interests
- Functions of a system of economic interests. Motives and incentives of effective business
System economic laws
- Identification of economic laws and new trends in socio-economic development of society - the main purpose of economic science
- The maintenance of the economic law and the methodology of its research
- Economic laws as a system. To the discussion about the main economic law of the system
- The main content of economic laws: time saving, increasing labor productivity and elevation of economic needs
Market and Market Economy: Content, Functions, Views
- The concept of the market and market economy. Subjects of market relations
- Market functions and its role in the socio-economic system of society
Competition as the main element in the market model of management
- Development of a competitive environment in Russia and the competitiveness of domestic production
- Antimonopoly policy and antitrust regulation: Economic content and features of Russia
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- Conditions and reasons for the formation of the concept of utmost utility
- Achievements and miscalculations of theories of labor value and utmost utility
Demand, offer and price in the system market relations
- Demand and offer: content and interaction problems
- Problems for the ratio of supply and demand in the modern Russian economy
Essence and functions of money
- Essence of money. Features of paper money. Law of the amount of money in circulation
Enterprise (firm) as a major business entity in market conditions
Capital as a material basis for the development of the enterprise
- The content of the concept of "capital" and the evolution of views on his nature
- Circuit and Capital Traffic (Production Funds)
- The structure of the capital (production assets) of the enterprise. Physical and moral depreciation of fixed capital
Production Costs: Essence, Classification and Structure
- General ideas about the costs of production of the enterprise
- Two concepts of production costs: Marxist and neoclassical
- Methods to reduce the cost of manufacturing enterprise. Features of modern Russia
Monetary income of enterprises and forms of their manifestation in a market economy
- Salary as a form of cash income of employees
Features of agrarian relations. Land rent.. Land price
- The content of agricultural relationships and the specificity of production in agriculture
Bank as a business entity in a market economy. Securities and Stock Exchange
- Features of a commercial bank as a business entity
- Types of securities and pricing features in the stock market
Public reproduction at the national level
Object, method and functions economic theory
Movement of the population - changes in the state of the population (its number and structure) caused by natural movement (marriages, fertility and mortality) and the migration of the population - its movements
Within one country (internal) or one to the second (external). The difference in natural growth (the difference in the number of births and mortality) and displacements (emigration and immigration) is a valid increase (or reduction) of the population.
The main characteristics of the population reproduction is the types of population, types and play modes.
Types of population movement are determined by the peculiarities of changes in the number and composition of the population in the country as a whole and in separate regions.
Thus, in demographics allocate:
The natural movement of the population is the result of the processes of birth and death of people. Depending on which processes prevail, a natural increase or a natural decrease in the population occurs. In other words, this is a change in the number and composition of the population as a result of fertility and mortality without taking into account mechanical displacement;
Migration movement is a change in the number and composition of the population as a result of the processes of mechanical spatial movement of people caused by political, socio-economic, religious and other reasons. Distinguish the external migration associated with changing the country permanent residence (Emigration - Departure beyond the state, immigration - arrival from other countries), and internal, reflecting the change in people's place of residence within one country. Internal migration is usually due to personal and economic reasons, for example, job search, higher earnings, etc.;
social Movement The population is manifested in changing the educational, professional, national and other population structures. Each new generation of people differs from the previous Stathovikov composition, the level of education and culture, a vocational qualification structure, employment structure and other characteristics.
The economic movement of the population is associated with a change in its work activity, which leads to an appropriate increase or decrease in resources for labor.
The types of movement of the population are interdependent and interrelated, determined its number and qualitative characteristicsnecessary for analyzing and evaluating demographic processes, developing strategies in the field of labor management.
2. Natural population movement.
The reproduction of the population is the main characteristic property of population, the study of which is part of the competence of demographics. In connection with the reproduction of the population, the concept of "population" acquires qualitative content. Qualitative side
population is the reproduction of the population, the study of which should answer the question: what is the fertility of population, as it makes mortality, sufficient reproduction of the population as a whole, etc.
The source of actual data in demographics is the statistics of the population - its number, composition, placement and statistics of the population movement. This data was analyzed in which special, methods developed in demographics are applied, allow not only to characterize the population and its movement by the concepts of "many", "little" or "enough", but also give answers to questions "How?", "why?" and that will be?".
The reproduction of the population is historically, the socio-economically determined process of constant and continuous resumption of generations of people. Population reproduction - the process of preserving time and space of specific historical measures of this population, its quantities and high-quality composition. It is a process of continuous resumption of generations of people due to the interaction of fertility and mortality. For quantitative characteristics The reproduction of the population is used by the reproduction of the population of the population, among which the most generalized - net-coefficient (d) of population reproduction (characterizes the degree of replacement of one generation as follows).
Population reproduction happens:
- simple, when the number of the population does not change - the amount of born is equal to the number of dead, and the new generation of daughters replaces the generation of mothers or in accordance with the sons - parents (p is one);
- expanded when the population increases (g more units);
- narrowed when depopulation (P is less than one).
In Europe, the net-coefficient of reproduction of the population is less than 1,
that is, it does not even occur simple replacement of generations. In Asia, Africa, South America and Australia, there is an expanded reproduction of the population in North America and East Asia (Japan)
- Durable.
The natural movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators. Among the absolute indicators, the main increase (decrease) of the population is the main increase in the relative - the ratio of natural growth (the ratio of the absolute level of natural growth to the average population during a specific period) is calculated and as the difference between the common fertility and mortality rates (usually in PROMILL).
Natural increase is an excess of fertility over mortality (calculated by 1000 inhabitants per year). It can be positive in case of fertility over mortality and negative when mortality is more fertility, or zero, when these indicators have the same value. The nature of the continuous resumption of people's generations depends on the dynamics of natural growth. The reproduction of the population constantly changes the number of humanity, changes and the age-sex structure of the population. Depending on how the floor, the people born and deceased, at what age a person dies, the number of people on the floor and age changes, and therefore the age-sex structure of the population also changes. The number of born in advance determines the maximum contingent of those for a long time, which continue to life at different ages, and the number of dead directly reflects the structure of the population structure for those or other criteria.
The coefficient of natural growth may have a positive, negative and zero value, characterizing the increase accordingly, decrease or unchanged the number of territory population taking into account various combinations of fertility and mortality.
The dynamics of the natural growth of the population of the region depends on the levels of fertility and mortality, since population growth
- This is the difference between the number of born and died for a certain period (usually per year). In order for data on fertility, mortality and natural increase, they are comparable to different regions, they are calculated on 1000 shower of the population, receiving the appropriate coefficients (they are called common):
- fertility coefficient - n;
- mortality ratio - m;
- The coefficient of the natural growth of the CRC \u003d N - M.
Fertility and mortality rates determine
dynamics of natural growth in the population. The natural growth ratio in the world reached a maximum (20.6%) in the second half of the sixties. He then began to decline in the late eighties of eighties amounted to 16.1%.
The lowest growth rates inherent in European countries. In some countries (Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, Russia) is negative. The highest natural growth rates are observed in Asian countries, Africa and Latin America, exceeding where-35 - 40%.
At the end of the XIX - early twentieth century. The value of the total coefficient of the natural growth of the population of the earth's ball for the year was 17.3%, by the end of the XXI century will be approximately 14%.
Of course, it is far from last place. However, this does not mean the absence of problems. Consider further what is natural population decline.
Concept
If in Russia, at the current moment, even with an existing number of born died in the calculation of 1 thousand people. As much as in Western European states, the demographic situation would be much better. Natural population decline is One of the most pressing problems today in the country. It arises due to the exceedment of mortality over the birth rate.
According to the statists, if the number of dead today remained at the level of the 80s. The last century with the currently currently born, the position of our country in terms of population would be much higher. It should be emphasized that this is not about reproduction that form future dynamics. It is determined by the indicators of general birth and mortality. Their difference, in turn, reflects the coefficient of natural growth / loss of the population.
Statistics
I must say that low level Reproduction for the state is no less dangerous than confirmed by statistical data. In the previous 13 years, 20.4 million people died in Russia, and from 1992 to 2004 - 28.2 million. The contribution of an increase in the mortality share was fourwise higher than reducing the birth rate. Despite the fact that different sources Rosstat has various indicators, it is quite possible to analyze the general trends of depopulation.
First year B. newest Storywhich was fixed natural population decline is 1992. Since the next, 1993, its indicator below 750 thousand people. did not go down. In 1994, for the first time in all post-war, mortality exceeded 2.3 million people. Accordingly, increased and natural population decline. it There was not a single-step splash. A new negative trend appeared. This is confirmed by statistical figures: from 1993 to 1996, it amounted to more than 3250 thousand people, and in the following years, up to 3350 thousand people increased. In the 21st century (from 2001 to 2004), the indicator exceeded 3550 thousand people.
Compensating process
Reducing the population To one another, the influx of migrants was reimbursed. In 1994, their number amounted to 846 thousand people. Due to this, 95% of natural loss was reimbursed. At the same time, the analysis of information on all other years indicates a planned decrease in the compensatory role of the migration process. In general, for 13 years, the depopulation situation was reimbursed about 35.2% (3.6 million people). In 1992-1996, the country received more than 2325 thousand people due to migration, and from 2001 to 2004, only 282 thousand. Currently, in fact, do not compensate for the growing natural decline.
The reasons
Reducing the number of migrants, specialists are associated with a decrease in states in the post-Soviet space of the so-called migration potential. During all 90s. People from near abroad were continuously arrived in Russia. At the same time, Russians prevailed among them. To a lesser extent, among the visits there were immigrants from Kazakhstan, Transcaucasia, W. Asia. In general, in all states of near abroad by 1 thousand Russians who arrived in 1989-2003, about 370 people returned to Russia.
Most of all from the country went to Belarus, the least - to Azerbaijan. Due to the tributary, the number of Russians decreased by 7, but only 4 million people. In accordance with the correspondence of 2002, about 1.5 million people were additionally added due to the change in the part of the Belarusians and Ukrainians of their national affiliation.
Meanwhile, experts as the main reason for reducing the flow of people from near abroad are not a reduction in the scale of the potential, and the change of migration plants in those who, during the first few years after the union, could not return to their historical homeland. This, in turn, influenced the policy held by Russian authorities.
The leadership of the country, in particular, could not take advantage of the favorable situation. In connection with discrimination expressed in the adoption of laws on language, citizenship, electoral law, etc., in some states, the Russian-speaking population was ready to return to the country. However, in its path, citizens met obstacles created by the authorities. Accordingly, all their impulses come back to Russia quickly went out.
Comparison with other states
IN post-war years France, despite no less difficulties in the economic sphere, was able to repatriate from North. Africa about 1.5-2 million people, i.e. almost all compatriots. Germany returned about 10-12 million people., Japan - 4.5 million. This allowed countries to increase the population of 5-6%. The post-war furnishings in these states indicates a colossal economic and political gain. Once in a similar situation, Russia is almost until the end of the 90s. Lead politics against their national interests. This indicates first of all acceptance immediately after obtaining the independence of the Law "On Citizenship". This regulatory act set a number of obstacles for those who returned to Russia after 1992.
Crucial moment
It is worth it, however, to say that until 1999, even with natural loss, migration flows were held back to a decrease in the number of population in Russia. From 1992 to 1998 The indicator was 279 thousand people / year (the total value is 1950 thousand people.). In the next 6 years, the reduction was already impressive - 4785 thousand people. Thus, during the period of depopulation, the number of citizens decreased by 4.9-6.8 million people.
conclusions
In contrast to the rest developed statesIn Russia, depopulation has a number of features. What explains the natural decline of the population? In Russia, a fall in fertility to such an extent, in which the descendants are able to replace only 3/5 from the parent generation, supplemented with increased mortality. The latter, in turn, reduces the expected lifespan for 12-15 years, in comparison with other states. This led to the neighborhood in ratings with such countries as Vietnam, Guatemala, Honduras, Egypt, etc. In Europe, there is no state in which the life expectancy of people would be less than in Russia.
Conclusion
It must be said that natural decline is not something new for the world community. Back at the turn of 19-20 centuries. In the state of depopulation was france. In the second half of the 20th century, some European states collided with such a situation. In the early 70s. Against the background of quite favorable conditions for development in the post-war period, for the first time, the number of dead exceeded the number of born. This situation is maintained at present.
Natural decline has been observed since 1975 in Austria. For the two subsequent decades, a meager increase in the number of population (1 person per 1 thousand) is noted. The situation was in Belgium and Italy, and in the 90s. - In Sweden, Spain, Greece. In the second half of the 80s. Natural decline was observed in the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, some other states of Eastern Europe.
From 1999 to 2004 In Russia, the number of died annually higher than those born at 800-950 thousand people. At the same time, the total number is reduced annually by 750-900 thousand. The situation is complicated by the fact that migration has lost its compensatory role. This means that the rate of reducing the number of population in Russia is determined by an extremely natural loss. Thus, it can be stated that the state is in the deepest
The birth rate is mainly due to the customs relating to marriage, leaving for antiquity of whose history is very instructive, but here we are forced to restrict ourselves to the consideration of marriage conditions in modern civilized countries.
The age of marriage fluctuates depending on the climate. In areas with a warm climate, where childing begins early, it ends early, and in areas with a colder climate it begins later and ended later [Of course, the period of replacing generations itself affects the increase in population. If this period is equal to 25 years in one area and 20 years in another and if in each of these areas the population is doubled for every two generations for 1 thousand years, the population will increase in the first area of \u200b\u200b1 million times, and in the second - at 30 million times.]; However, in any case, the longer marriages are postponed for age limits, natural for a given country, the lower the birth rate; At the same time, of course, the age of his wife in this respect is much more important than the age of her husband [Dr. Ogli (The Statistical Journal, Vol. 53) counted that if the average marriage age of women in England came 5 years later, the number of children per 1 marriage, which now amounts to 4.2, would decrease to 3.1. Koreani, based on the fact that the climate in Budapest is relatively warmer, considers the most prolific age in women 18 - 20 years, and in men 24 - 26 years old. But it comes to the conclusion that a small deferment of the marriage beyond these ages is desirable mainly on the grounds that the survival of children born in women under 20 years of age is usually small - see"Proceedings of Congress of Hygiene and Demography", London 1892, Statistical Journal, Vol. 57.] . With this climate, the average age of marriage depends mainly from the ease with which young people are able to arrange their lives and contain a family in accordance with the level of life amenities adopted by their friends and acquaintances, and therefore the marriage age is distinguished from population groups with various material Regulation.
The income of men from the middle classes rarely reaches its maximum before reaching the age of 40 or 50 years, and the costs of parenting of children are great and last for many years. A qualified worker at the age of 21 earns almost as much as well as his entire subsequent life, unless he rises to any responsible post, but until 21 years he earns a little; On their children - if they are not sent to work at the factory, where they are able to recoup their content at a very early age, - he has to spend significant means before reaching the approximately 15-year-old age. Finally, an unqualified worker receives its almost the highest earnings for 18 years, and his children begin to make money at a very early age. As a result, the average marital age is the highest of middle-class people, it is lower in qualified workers and even lower from unqualified. [The term "marriage" should be understood in a broad sense in this text and include not only legitimate marriages, but all those legally unformed unions, which are quite constant in order to have practical responsibility for at least a few years. overlaid family life. Such unofficial marriages often concluded at an early age and often after several years are completed by a legitimate marriage. For this reason, the average marriage age in the broad sense of this concept - and here we are interested in this interpretation - below the average age of the registered legitimate marriage. The correction that is in connection with this have to do for all classes for all workers is obviously very significant, but it is much more about unqualified workers than in relation to all other layers. The data cited below should be interpreted in the light of this comment, as well as taking into account the fact that all English industrial statistics are distorted by the lack of appropriate classification in our official data different groups workers. In the forty-ninth annual report of the head of the civil status registration service, it was noted that in a number of selectively taken districts analyzed data on marriage contracts for 1884-1885. And the following results were obtained, and the number that stands after the name of the kind of occupation means the average age of the Bachelor of Bachelor, and then the average age of unmarried women who marries the representatives of this profession are indicated: - Miners 24.06 (22.46); Textiles 24.38 (23,43); shoemakers, tailors 24.92 (24.31); MASTERS 25.35 (23.70); Black-worker 25.56 (23,66); trade servants 26.25 (24.43); shopkeepers, quarries 26.67 (24,22); Farmers and their sons 29.23 (26.91); Persons of free professions and independent income of 31.22 (26.40).
Dr. Ogli in the already mentioned work shows that the wound coefficient is usually the highest in those areas of England, where the percentage of women aged 15 is 25 years old, engaged in factory labor. As he believes, this is due to the partially the desire of men to supplement his money income into the income of his wives, but it may also be partially called an excess in these districts of women of marriage. ]
The number of unskilled workers, when they were not so poor to experience acute need, and when their ranks were not limited to any external cause, rarely, if at all, found the ability to increase lower than the doubling for 30 years, i.e. . to an increase of 1 million times in 600 years and 1 billion times in 1200 years; From here it is possible a priori.make a conclusion that the growth of their number has never happened freely for any long period. This conclusion is confirmed by the lessons of the whole story. Everywhere in Europe over the Middle Ages, and in some parts of it even so far, unmarried workers usually lived in a farmhouse or with their parents, while a married couple needed a separate dwelling; When the village has such a number of workers, what it can be used properly, the number of houses does not increase in it, and young people have to wait for their destiny, as they have enough patience.
Even now in Europe many more districts where the custom, having the power of the law, allows you to marry only one son in the family; As a rule, this is the eldest son, but in some localities it turns out the youngest; If anyone else is married to another sons, he must leave his village. When in the deaf corners of the old light, a high level of material well-being is achieved and extreme poverty disappears, the specified phenomenon is explained, as a rule, the preservation of such a kind of custom with all the troubles arising from it and suffering [So, attending the Valley of Yahenau in the Bavarian Alps in about 1880, it discovered that such a custom retained all his strength there. As a result of the sharp increase in the cost of local forests, which was associated with far-reaching calculations, the residents of the valley were associated with a secured lifestyle in spacious homes, and their younger brothers and sisters were played by servants or in their family or in other homes. As a special nation differed from the workers who lived in the neighboring valleys in poverty and the need, but we clearly considered that the residents of the Vachana valley were paid for their material well-being too expensive. ]. Of course, the cruelty of the specified custom may be mitigated by the possibility of migration, but in the Middle Ages, the free movement of people was hampered by the harsh rules. Free cities actually often encouraged the influx of people from the village, but the guild rules in some respects almost as cruelly fell on people who tried to leave their old settlements, as well as the laws of the feudal lords themselves. [See, for example: Rogers. Six Centuries, p. 106, 107.]
§ 5. In this respect, the position of the hired agricultural worker has changed very much. Cities are now always available for him and his children; If he goes to a new light, it can only succeed than representatives of any other class of emigrants. However, on the other hand, the constant increase in the value of the Earth and the increasing lack leads to the restriction of population growth in a number of districts, where the system prevails peasant farm, where there is little prospects for the purchase of a new classes or emigration and where parents are aware that the social situation of their children depends on the area of \u200b\u200btheir existing land. Therefore, they prefer artificially limit the size of the family and consider marriage mainly as a business transaction and always seek to marry their sons on the heirs. Francis Galton noted that, although the families of English peers are generally great, the custom of marrying the eldest son on the heir, and it is probably not fruitful, and sometimes to discourage younger sons from the marriage eventually led to the extinction of many noble childbirth. Similar customs in the French peasants, along with their preference, have small families retain almost unchanged their number.
On the other hand, it seems that there are no more favorable conditions for the rapid increase in the population number than in agricultural regions of newly populated countries. Earth can be obtained in abundance, railways And steamers export agricultural products and in exchange delivered to the latest implements and many of the items of life amenities and luxury. "Farmer", as the owner's peasant owner is called in America, it is therefore discovered that a big family is not a burden for him, but by help. The farmer himself and his family members lead a healthy lifestyle outdoors; Nothing hinders, and everything contributes to the increase in population. Its natural increase is complemented by immigration; As a result, despite the fact that some layers of residents of large cities of America, as claimed, are not arranged to have many children, the country's population has increased over the past 100 years. [The deep wisdom of peasant-owners, leading economy in stable conditions, and Malthus noted; See His review on Switzerland ("Essay", BK. II, CH. V). Adam Smith noticed that the poor women of Mountain Scotland often gave birth to 20 children, of which no more than two lived to mature age ("Study of the nature and causes of the wealth of peoples", KN. I, ch. VIII. ); The idea that the need stimulates fertility, emphasized Dubldes in his "True Law of Population". (CM, as well as: sad flag. Law of population.) Herbert Spencer, obviously, it was likely that the progress of civilization in itself would be entirely to restrain the growth of the population. However, Malthus's remark about the fact that the reproductive ability of the population is lower in wild peoples than in civilized, Darwin was distributed to the entire animal and the plant world at all.
Charles Booth (Statistical Journal, 1893) divided London into 27 sections (mainly sections of records of acts of civil status) and built them in order by the degree of poverty, overcrowding, birth rate and mortality rate. He believes that these four indicators are generally unambiguous. Excess fertility over mortality is least in very rich and very poor areas.
The birth rate in England and Wales is nominally reduced by approximately the same pace in both the city and in the village. But the constant migration of young people from rural areas to industrial significantly reduced the number of young married women in rural areas; With the amendment on this fact, we discover that the percentage of births in women in childbearing age is much higher in rural areas than in cities; This is seen from the following table, published by the head of the civil status registration service in 1907, the average annual birth police in urban and rural areas.
Historian Jack Andrew Goldstone in his book "Revolution and Riot at the beginning of the modern world" (Revolution and Rebellion in the Early
Modern World) proves that the Great European Revolutions English and French have something in common with the Great Asian Bunts, which destroyed the Ottoman Empire and removed the ruling dynasties of Japan and China from the authorities. All these crises arose when political, economic and social institutions have come across simultaneous population growth pressure and reducing accessible resources.
In the early 1700s, the mortality rate from epidemic pain and hunger began to decrease throughout Europe, while the birth rate remained the same, which led to an increase in population. Significant excess of fertility over mortality throughout a significant part of the beginning of the new time spawned a demographic boom. Demographer Michael Anderson writes that in 1750-1850, for 100 years, the population of Europe has doubled. "The Epoch of Democratic Revolutions" at the end of the 1700s, including French, coincided with increasing the share of young people in the population.
The big, young and violent rural population was the main factor in social tensions in France on the eve and during the revolution. During the XVIII century. The population of France increased by 8-10 million people, whereas for the previous 100 years it increased by only 1 million in about 1772. The Tver Abbot began the first large census of the population of France. According to him, the population has been 26 million people.
It is believed that by 1789, on the eve of the revolution, the number of subjects of Louis XVI reached 30 million people more than 20% of the total population of Europe, not counting Russia. According to a study published by the University of George Mason, these numbers were supposed to play their role. There is reason to assume that they changed the political and economic situation in France. And, we can add, cost Louis of the throne and head.
In the same way, the population of Russia doubled from 1850 to the beginning of the First World War. From 1855 to 1913 the population Russian Empire Grew from 73 million to about 168 million people. The existing procedure could not provide food and such a lot of people. IN countryside The main problem was the lack of land. The rapid growth of the population led to the fact that the average land size was decreased by about 5 hectares in 1861 to less than 3 hectares in 1900.
In the west of excess rural population Unscrew the industry, but Russia was able to post on plants and factories only 1 /3
population growth. It raised an understanding that, if you do nothing, the village will explode. The peasants had a simple solution to the problem - to confiscate all the noble lands.
In the article presented at the 2001 European Demographic Conference, the Russian historian Lion Protasov nominated the assumption that during the period preceding the Russian revolution, the demographic factors played important role In heating mass discontent. It is curious that a strikingly large number of radicals that provoked the onset of the revolution, was born in 1880. "Generation of the 1880s," says Protasov, "almost 60% of radicals put forward and dominated the left fractions: 62% of revolutionary socialists, 58% of the Bolsheviks, 63 % Of the "folk" socialists and A7% of Mensheviks. The emergence of a significant number of young radicals at the beginning of the XX century. It was noticed by historians. "
The peasants baked kids as pancakes, which were overcoiled and "overheets". Thanks to the achievements of medicine, sanitation and the improvement of nutrition, children's and infant mortality fell. "In Russia, political cataclysms of 1905 and 1917. It was "prepared" not only by economic and political reasons, concludes protasses, but also the action of the laws of nature. Demographic explosion of the last decades of the XIX century. Not only aggravated the problems of modernization, but also accelerated the marginalization of society and created excess "human material" for the avant-garde of the future creators of the revolution. "
In the past, the explosive growth of the population was a source of problems. But today the population is declining. The result may be as destructive: since in all developed countries, pensions are paid at the expense of taxes collected from young workers, reducing and aging the population will turn into a problem just when Western societies will especially need young people.
