Economic cycles cyclical economy. Fundamental studies. Crisis as the most important element of the cycle

Economic height - this is a long-term increase in the actual volume of gross domestic product both in absolute values \u200b\u200band in the calculation of each country.

The rate of economic growth determines the following factors:

Natural resources;

Labor resources;

Type of socio- economic System and the state of the socio-political situation in the country;

The structure of social production, its volume and quality, as well as the level of the organization;

The degree of use of achievements of scientific and technological progress in production.

Two ways to achieve economic growth

Economic growth can not be permanent and uniform, because it is subject to economic crisis. Thus, the economic development of the country, as in general, the development of the global economy is subject to economic cycles.

Economic cycle - This is the period of development of a market economy from one crisis to another.

Distinguish between four stages of the economic cycle:

1) crisis (recession) - Initial and defining cycle phase. Reducing the real volume of production, consumption, income and investment, growth of unemployment, aggravation of socio-economic contradictions in society. Reduction of the total volume of production is called recession.

2) Depression (bottom crisis) - This is an economic decline in the economy, which has grown into the protracted phase, the so-called stagnation of economics . It comes after the crisis and may continue for a long time. It is characterized by low, albeit rather stable, level of production, high unemployment (cyclic and stagnation).

3) Revival - This is a gradual increase in production, attracting additional labor into the industry, the growth of entrepreneurs and income of the population.

4) Economic lift (boom, peak) - this is a period that is characterized almost full employment active population, the constant expansion of the production of all goods and services, the growth of income of entrepreneurs and the population, the growth of gross national product.

The main phases of the cycle - the crisis and the rise, intermediate - depression and revival.

Economic development - the process of passing the economy is not only a phase of growth, but also phases of recession, which may be accompanied by both relative and absolute drops of production volumes.

Key level indicators economic Development:

1) GDP, GNP and national income per capita.

2) the production of basic types of products (electricity, basic foods - grains, milk, meat, sugar, potatoes, etc.) per capita.

3) Sectoral structure national Economy: The relationship between major people's industry and non-material production sectors.

4) level and quality of life of the population (analysis consumer basketss, subsistence minimum).

5) Indicators economic efficiency production.

National income - this is the newly created cost for a certain period.

Consumer basket - this is a minimum set of food, non-food products and services (utilities, transport, medical) necessary to preserve human health and ensuring its livelihoods.

Efficiency - this is the effectiveness of the process, defined as the effect of the effect, resulting in costs.

Nikolay Dmitrievich Kondratyev (1892-1938) - Russian economist, founder of the theory economic cyclesknown as "Condratyeva cycles".

He studied at the Faculty of Faculty of the University of St. Petersburg. Participated in the activities of scientific circles L. I. Petrazhitsky and M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky, collaborated with the magazines "Covenants", "Journal of Europe", "Life for all".

Secretary A. F. Kerensky for agricultural affairs. Food Minister of Temporary Government (1917). Activist of the Socialist Party.

He taught at the Cooperative Institute, the University of Shanyavsky and the Petrovsky Agricultural Academy. Founder and First Director of the Conjunctural Institute at the People's Commissariat of the Union of SSR (1920). He worked in the agricultural section of the USSR state section. He was arrested on the "case of the Labor Peasant Party", shot, rehabilitated (1987).

Created by the International Foundation N. D. Kondratieva (1992).

Condratyev's cycles are periodic cycles of alternating lifting and decays of the global economy with a duration of 40-60 years. He studied and published the results of the study of this pattern (1922). The large-scale support did not receive this study, however, this happened later (1939), when Joseph Schumpeter investigated this pattern and introduced the term "Kondratyevskaya waves", adding research on 7-11-year-old cycles Zhuyaror.

In cases where elements economic Life And their bonds are subject to changes that are not comprehensive by the change in their number, the volume and generally not conducible to quantitative changes, we are talking about the presence of qualitative changes.

Considering it is still impossible to determine completely exactly the years of the fracture in the development of large cycles and taking into account the inaccuracy of determining the moments of such fractures (for 5-7 years), which arises from the method of data analysis itself, you can still outline the following most likely borders of large cycles:

1. Rapid wave of the first cycle - from the late 80s - early 90s. XVIII century until the period of 1810-1817.

2. Frequency wave of the first cycle - from the period 1810-1817. until the period of 1844-1851

3. Rapid wave of the second cycle - from the period 1844-1855. until the period of 1870-1875

4. Low wave of the second cycle - from the period of 1870-1875. before the period 1890-1896.

5. Raising wave of the third cycle - from the period 1891-1896. until the period of 1914-1920.

1. Cyclicity of economic development. Economic cycle, its phases and types.

The cyclicity of the economy is changes in the economy periodically repeated over a number of years (lifts and decals in the economy).

The time between the two identical states in the economy is an economic cycle.

Firstthe most important phase Economic Cycle - a crisis(Recession, compression, decline). His characteristic features:

Excess supply over demand leading to the accumulation of inventories and price fall

Sales crisis and falling prices leads to a reduction in production ;

A large number of bankruptcies and colractions;

Mass unemployment;

Falling wages and living standards;

The growth in money needs to pay for obligations (universal pursuit of money), which leads to an increase in the loan interest.

Second phasecycle depression -the economy reaches the "bottom", the lowest point of the production drop. Reduction of production and fall in prices are stopped, inventory stabilizes, the loan percentage decreases (business activity is very low – there is no demand for money), unemployment is preserved at a high level. Pricing stabilization creates the possibility of expanding sales and arise prospects for exiting the crisis.

Third Phase - revivalit is characterized by an increase in production leading to the restoration of the pre-crisis level. Prices are beginning to grow, an increase in business activity is observed. The demand for industrial equipment is growing, new capital is involved in the turnover. The demand for money increases, which leads to an increase in loan interest.

Fourth cycle phase - climb(expansion, boom) - the volume of production exceeds the pre-crisis level. Prices are growing, with general wage growth, unemployment reaches a minimum level. Outside the peak, the growth of business activity is terminated, the issue of sales arises, production is declining, the economy enters into the phase of the crisis, etc.

The cycle itself creates the conditions and prerequisites necessary for the transition from one phase to another.

IN modern conditions (mixed economy) The regularity of oscillations, the sequence of the cycle phases was broken, and some characteristics of the cycle phases changed, the decrease in production is often accompanied by inflation (stagflation).

There are many explanations reasonscycles:

External reasons:wars, revolution and political shocks, population growth rates. Spots in the Sun (weather-crop), waves of scientific and technological progress, giving an economic system impulse for movement, etc. These external factors believe that these external factors affect the change in investment, which in turn acts on the volume of production, employment and prices.

To internallocated inside the economic system include:

Consumer and investment demand oscillations;

Violations in the field cash circulation;

Failure in functioning market Mechanism as a result of state intervention in economic processes;

Changing the position of the country in the global market;

The aging of the production apparatus and the slowdown in the pace of scientific and technological progress, etc.

With all the diversity of explanation of the causes of the key cause of cyclicity are fluctuations in investment demand for capital,i.e innovative changes In production (new technologies, the emergence of new equipment), requiring the update of fixed capital. Distinguished: long-term (40-60 years), medium-term (8-10 years) and short-term (2-3 years) cycles. Long-term cycles ("Long Waves" N. Kondratyev) are due to deep structural changes in the economy occurring under the influence of new, revolutionary technical innovations. At the heart of the medium-term cycles is the term of moral aging of equipment, causing a wave-like fluctuation of demand for the elements of fixed capital. They are called the zhogagar cycles, which in 1862 published a job about crises in France, where for the first time raised the question that crises should be considered as a natural phenomenon. Cycles of the Blacksmith are associated with the frequency of updating of fixed capital and are primarily in construction and call them building cycles. Duration in the range of 20. Medium-term cycles are bound to large waves and the nature of their flow depends on which the long wave phase they fall. Thus, long-term cycles are associated with the appearance and transition to new technological methods of production. This transition takes a long time and gives an impetus to a new wave.

Anticyclic policy of the state - activities aimed at preventing sharp fluctuations in the development of production (Table 2.2.1).

Table 2.2.1 -Basic events of anticyclic politics

Type of policy Lifting crisis

Monetary reduction money increase Monetary

mass masses

Fiscal increasing taxes and tax cuts and

cutting costs increase

budget budget

Policy reduction salary increase wages

payroll Board Board

Investment reduction increase

politics of state state-owned

investment investment

Fluctuations in economic activity (economic conjuncture), consisting in a repeating compression (economic recession, recession, depression) and expanding the economy (economic lifting). Cycles are periodic, but usually irregular. Usually (within the framework of neoclassical synthesis) are interpreted as oscillations around a long-term trend for the development of the economy.

The deterministic point of view on the causes of economic cycles is proceeded from predictable, well-defined factors forming at the stage of lifting (recession factors) and recession (lifting factors). A stochastic point of view comes from the fact that cycles are generated by the factors of random nature and are the reaction of the economic system on internal and external impulses.

Usually allocated four main types Economic cycles:

short-term cycles Kitina (characteristic period - 2-3 years);
medium-term cycles Juedor (characteristic period - 6-13 years);
rhythms of the Blacksmith (characteristic period - 15-20 years);
long waves Kondratyev (The characteristic period is 50-60 years).

Phase

In cycles of business activity, four relatively clearly distinguishable phases are distinguished: peak, recession, bottom (or "lower point") and lifting; but in favor more than These phases are characteristic of Jewor's cycles.

Business Cycles in Economics

Climb

The rise (revival) occurs after reaching the lowest point of the cycle (bottom). It is characterized by a gradual increase in employment and production. Many economists believe that this stage is inherent in low inflation rates. Innovation is being introduced in the economy with a short payback period. Demand is realized, pending during the previous recession.

Peak

Peak, or the top of the cycle of business activity, is the "highest point" of the economic lift. In this phase, unemployment usually reaches itself low level either disappears at all, production facilities work with a maximum or close to it load, that is, in production, almost all existing material and material and labor resources. Usually, although it is not always, inflation is enhanced during the peaks. The gradual saturation of the markets strengthens competition, which reduces the rate of profit and increases the average payback period. The need for long-term lending with a gradual decrease in loan repayment opportunities is increasing.

Recession

The decline (recession) is characterized by a reduction in production volumes and a decrease in business and investment activity. As a result, unemployment increase increases. Officially, the phase of the economic recession, or recession, consider the fall in business activity, continuing over three months in a row.

Bottom

The bottom (depression) of the economic cycle is the "lowest point" of production and employment. It is believed that this cycle phase is usually no longer extensive. However, the story knows the exceptions to this rule. The Great Depression of the 1930s, despite periodic fluctuations in business activity, lasted 10 years (1929-1939).

A characteristic feature of cyclic development is that this is, first of all, development, and not oscillations around a certain permanent (potential) value. The cyclicity means the development of the spiral, and not by a closed circle. This mechanism of progressive movement in various forms. Economic literature emphasizes that cyclic oscillations occur near the trajectory of long-term growth (century trend).

The reasons

The theory of real economic cycles explains the decline and lifts to the impact of real factors. In industrialized countries, this may be the emergence of new technologies, changing prices for raw materials. In agrarian countries - harvest or cripples. Also, force majeure situations (war, revolution, natural disasters) can be a push to change. Anticipating the change in the economic situation in the best or worse, households and firms massively start saving or spend more. As a result, aggregate demand is reduced or increases, and the turnover is reduced. retail. Firms get less or more orders for the manufacture of products, accordingly the volume of production, employment is changed. Business activity is changing: firms are beginning to reduce the range of products or, on the contrary, launch new projects, take loans for their implementation. That is, the whole economy fluctuates, striving to come into balance.

In addition to oscillations of aggregate demand, there are other factors affecting the phases of the economic cycle: changes depending on the change of seasons in agriculture, construction, automotive industry, seasonality of retail trade, the age-old trends in the country's economic development, dependent on the resource base, the number and structure of the population proper management.

Impact on the economy

The existence of the economy as a totality of resources for steadily growing consumption has a oscillatory nature. Economy fluctuations are expressed in the economic cycle. The "thin" moment of the economic cycle is considered to be a decline, which, at some, scale can go to the crisis.

The concentration (monopolization) of capital leads to "erroneous" solutions on the scale of the country's economy or even the world. Any investor seeks to receive income from its capital. Waiting for an investor in the size of this income occurs from the rise stage when the maximum income. At the stage of the decline, the investor considers it unprofitable for himself to invest capital in projects with a yield below "yesterday's".

Without such investments (investments), production activities are reduced, as a result of the solvency of employees of this sphere, which are consumers of goods and services of other spheres. Thus, the crisis of one or several industries is reflected in the entire economy as a whole.

Another problem of capital concentration is the removal of money supply (money) from the consumption and production of consumer goods (also the production of means of production of these goods). Money obtained in the form of dividends (or profits) accumulates in investor accounts. There is a lack of money to maintain the necessary level of production, and as a result, a decrease in the volume of this production. The unemployment rate is growing, the population saves on consumption, demand is dropped.

From the sectors of the economy, the scope of services and industries, which produce the goods of short-term use, are somewhat less affected by the devastating effects of the economic downturn. Recession even contributes to the intensification of certain types of activities, in particular increases the demand for pawnshops and lawyers specializing in bankruptcies. The most sensitive to the cyclic fluctuations of the company, producing products of production and consumer goods of long-term use.

These firms are not only heavier than others tolerate the business decline, but also the most benefit from the rise in the economy. The main reasons are two:

• the possibility of postponing purchases;
• monopolization of the market.

Purchase of capital equipment most often can be postponed for the future; In severe time, the manufacturers tend to refrain from purchasing new machines and equipment and the construction of new buildings. During a long downturn, the company often prefer to repair or upgrade outdated equipment, instead of spending big funds for the purchase of new equipment.

As a result, investments in manufacturing goods during economic recessions are sharply reduced. The same applies to consumer goods for long-term use. Unlike food and clothing, buying a luxurious car or expensive household appliances You can postpone until better times. In periods of economic recession, people are more increasingly inclined, and not changing the goods of long-term use. Although the sales volumes of food and clothing, as a rule, are also reduced, this reduction is usually less than a drop in demand for durable goods.

The monopoly power in most industries that produce products manufacturing and consumer goods for long-term use are related to the fact that few large firms dominate in the markets of these goods. The monopoly position allows them during economic reservoirs to maintain prices at the same level, reducing production in response to falling demand. Consequently, the fall in demand is much more affected by production and employment than prices. The situation is characteristic of industries producing short-term consumption. For the fall in demand, these industries usually react with a total price reduction, since none of the firms have a significant monopoly power.

History and long cycles

Economic cycles are not genuinely "cyclic" in the sense that the duration of the period, let's say, from one to another peak throughout the story hesitated significantly. Although the economic cycles in the United States lasted an average of about five years, cycles are known for a duration of one year to twelve. The most pronounced peaks (measured as a percentage increase over the trend of economic growth) coincided with large wars of the 20th century, and the deepest economic downturn, excluding the Great Depression, was observed after the end of the First World War.

At the end of the 20th century, the American economy apparently joined the period of a long downturn, as evidenced by some economic indicators, in particular the level of real wages and volume net investment. Nevertheless, even if there is a long-term tendency to reduce growth rates, the US economy continues to evolve; Although in the early 1980s, a negative increase in GDP was registered in the country, in all subsequent years, except 1991, he remained positive.

Syptomatic for the long-term recession began in the 1960s is the fact that, although the growth rates were rarely negative, the level of economic activity in the United States from 1979 almost never exceeded the trend value of growth.

It should be noted that along with the described economic cycles, long cycles are also distinguished in the theory. Long cycles in the economy - economic cycles with a duration of more than 10 years. Sometimes called their researchers.

Investment cycles (7-11 years) studied Clement Jewor (FR. Clement Juglar). Data cycles, apparently, makes sense to be considered as medium-term, not long.

Infrastructure investment cycles (15-25 years) studied Nobel laureate Simon Blacksmith.

Condratyev cycles (45-60 years) described Russian economist Nikolai Kondratyev.

It is these cycles most often and denote as "long waves" in the economy.

Cycles Kitina

Cycles Kitina - short-term economic cycles with a characteristic period of 3-4 years, open in the 1920s by the English economist Joseph Kitchin. Kitchin himself explained the existence of short-term cycles by fluctuations in global gold reserves, but in our time such an explanation cannot be considered satisfactory. In modern economic theory, the mechanism for generating these cycles is usually associated with retardations in time (temporary lags) in the motion of information affecting the decision-making of commercial firms.

The improvement of the company's conjuncture responds with full capacity utilization, the market is injected with goods, after some time the warehouses are formed excessive stocks of goods, after which a decision is made to reduce capacity utilization, but with a certain delay, since information about the transaction over demand itself is usually With a certain delay, it also takes time to check this information; A certain time is required to accept and approve the decision itself.

In addition, a certain delay is observed between the decision-making and relevant reduction in capacity utilization (the time to bring the solution is also required). Finally, another temporary lag exists between the moment the level of reducing the level of production capacity and relevant resorption of excessive stocks of goods in warehouses. In contrast to Kitina cycles within the framework of Jewor's cycles, we observe oscillations not just at the level of loading existing production facilities (and, accordingly, in the volume of inventories), but also fluctuations in the volume of investment in fixed assets.

Jewrara cycles

Jewrara cycles - Medium-term economic cycles with a characteristic period of 7-11 years. Named by the name of the French economist Cleleman Zhulyrara, one of the first described these cycles. In contrast to Kitin cycles within the framework of Zeylur cycles, we observe oscillations not just at the level of loading of existing production facilities (and, accordingly, in the volume of inventories), but also fluctuations in the volume of investment in fixed assets. As a result, time delays between the adoption of investment solutions and the construction of appropriate production facilities (as well as between the construction and the relevant launch of the appropriate capacities are added to temporary delay, characteristic of Kitchin cycles.

Additional delay is formed between the decline in demand and the elimination of the corresponding production facilities. These circumstances are determined by the fact that the characteristic period of Jewor's cycles is noticeably longer than the characteristic period of Kitin cycles. Cyclic economic crises / recessions can be viewed as one of the phases of the Zhuyaror cycle (along with the phases of revitalization, lifting and depression). At the same time, the depth of these crises depends on the Kondratyev wave phase.

Since not a clear periodicity is observed, the average value of 7-10 years has been taken.

Phase cycle Jugulrara

In the cycle of Juléra, four phases often distinguish themselves, in which some researchers identify subphaluses:

• the phase of revival (start and acceleration subfasses);
• lifting phase, or prosperity (phases of growth and overheating, or boom);
• phase of recession (diaphounds of collapse / acute crisis and recession);
• phase Depression, or stagnation (stabilization and shift subfasses).

Cycles (rhythms) of the blacksmith have a duration of about 15-25 years. They received the name of the cousnet cycles named the American economist of the future laureate Nobel Prize Simon Blacksmith. They were opened in 1930. The blacksmith tied these waves with demographic processes, in particular, the influx of immigrants and construction changes, so he called them "demographic" or "building" cycles.

Currently, a number of authors of the rhythm of the Blacksmith are considered as technological, infrastructure cycles. In these cycles, there is a mass update of basic technologies. In addition, there are well coincided with the Cycle of the Blacksmith Large cycles of real estate prices on the example of Japan 1980-2000. And the duration of a large half-wave of price lift in the United States.

The proposal to consider the rhythms of the Blacksmith as the third harmonic of the Kondratyevskaya wave was also expressed. It is not observed with a clear periodicity, so the researchers take the average value of 15-20 years.

Condratyev cycles

Condratyev cycles (K-cycles or to-waves) - periodic cycles of a modern world economy with a duration of 40-60 years.

There is a certain relationship between the long Condratyev cycles and the medium-term cycles of Zhulura. Such a connection was noticed by Kondratyev himself. Currently, it is expressed that the relative correctness of the alternation of the upper and lower phases of Kondratyevsky waves (each phase of 20-30 years) is determined by the nature of the group of nearby medium-term cycles. During the rising phase of the Kondratyevskaya wave, the rapid expansion of the economy inevitably leads society to the need to change. But the possibility of changing the society is lagging behind the requirements of the economy, so the development goes into a decrease in the phase during which crisis-depressive phenomena and difficulties are forced to rebuild economic and other relations.

The theory was developed by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratyev (1892-1938). In the 1920s. He drew attention to the fact that in the long-term dynamics of some economic indicators there is a certain cyclic regularity, during which the phases of the growth of the corresponding indicators comes to the phases of their relative decline with the characteristic period of these long-term fluctuations of about 50 years. Such oscillations were marked as large or long cycles, subsequently called by Y. Schumpeter in honor of the Russian scientist Kondratyevsky cycles. Many researchers began to call them with long waves, or Kondratyevsky waves, sometimes to the waves.

The characteristic period of waves is 50 years with a possible deviation of 10 years (from 40 to 60 years). Cycles consist of alternating phases with respect to high and relatively low economic growth rates. Many economists do not recognize the existence of such waves.

N. D. Kondratyev noted four empirical patterns In the development of large cycles:

Before the rise of the boost wave of each large cycle, and sometimes at the very beginning there are significant changes in the conditions of the economic life of society.
Changes are expressed in the technical inventions and discoveries, in changing the conditions of money circulation, in strengthening the role of new countries in world economic life, etc. Specified changes In one degree or another, it is constantly, but, according to N. D. Kondratyev, they proceed unevenly and most intensively expressed before the start of raising waves of large cycles and in their early.

Periods of raising waves of large cycles are usually significantly richer by large social shocks and coups in the life of society (revolution, war) than periods of lower waves.
In order to make sure that this approval is enough to look at the chronology of armed conflicts and coups in world history.

Lower waves of these large cycles are accompanied by a long depression of agriculture.

Large cycles of economic conjuncture are detected in the same single process of economic development dynamics, in which the average cycles with their lifting phases, crisis and depression are revealed.

Studies and conclusions of Kondratyev were based on the empirical analysis of a large number economic indicators different countries At fairly long intervals that covered 100-150 years. These indicators: price indices, government debt papers, nominal wage, indicators of foreign trade turnover, coal mining, gold, lead production, cast iron, etc.

Opponent Kondratieva, D. I. Oparin, indicated that the time series of studied economic indicators, although they give large or smaller deviations from middle size In one direction or another, in different periods of economic life, but the nature of these deviations, both in a separate indicator and the correlation of indicators, do not allow to allocate strict cyclicity. Other opponents indicated N. D. Kondratyev's retreat from Marxism, in particular the use of "quantitative money theory" to explain the cycles.

Over the past 80 years, the theory of long waves of Nikolai Kondratyev, I. Schispeter, theories of the creative destruction of I. Schumpeter, the theory of technical and economic cenosis of L. Badalyan and V. Krivorotov, the theory of technological devices developed by Academicians S. Glazyev and Lvov, the theory of the evolutionary cycles of Vladimir Panutin.

The theory of long waves, as well as Nikolai Kondratyeva himself, rehabilitated the famous Soviet economist S.M. Menshikov in their work "Long waves in the economy. When society changes the skin "(1989).

Dating Kondratievsky waves

For the period after the industrial revolution, the following Kondratyevsky cycles / Waves are usually allocated:

• 1 cycle - from 1803 to 1841-43. (marked moments of minima of economic indicators of the world economy)
• 2 cycle - from 1844-51 to 1890-96.
• 3 cycle - from 1891-96 to 1945-47.
• 4 cycle - from 1945-47 to 1981-83.
• 5 cycle - from 1981-83 to ~ 2018 (forecast)
• 6 cycle - from ~ 2018 to ~ 2060 (forecast)

However, there are differences in the dating of "Postconte'evsky" cycles. Analyzing a number of sources, Grinn L. E. and Korotaev A. V. lead the following borders of the beginning and end of the "postconte'ev" waves:

• 3 cycle: 1890-1896 - 1939-1950
• 4 cycle: 1939-1950 - 1984-1991
• 5 cycle: 1984-1991 -?

The ratio between Kondratyevsky waves and technological devices

Many researchers associate wave shifts with technological devices. Breakthrough technologies reveal opportunities for expanding production and form new sectors of the economy that form a new technological way. In addition, Kondratyevsky waves are one of the most important forms of the implementation of industrial principles of production.

The consolidated system of Kondratievsky waves and the corresponding technological instructions is as follows:

• 1st cycle - textile factories, industrial use of coal.
• 2nd cycle - coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine.
• The 3rd cycle is heavy engineering, electric power, inorganic chemistry, steel and electric motors.
• The 4th cycle is the production of cars and other machines, chemical industries, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production.
• The 5th cycle is the development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology.
• The 6th cycle is possibly NBic-convergence EN (convergence of nano-, biocoing, information and cognitive technologies).

After the 2030s (2050s according to other data), the onset of technological singularity is possible, which is currently analyzing and the forecast. If this hypothesis is true, then Condratyev cycles can break closer to 2030.

Restrictions Model Kondratyev

Kondratievsky waves have not yet received final recognition in world science. Some scientists are building calculations, models, forecasts based on K-waves (all over the world and especially in Russia), and a significant part of economists, including the most famous, doubt their existence or are denying them at all.

It should be noted that, despite the importance of the N.D. Condrase cyclicity of the development of society for forecasting tasks, its model (as well as any stochastic model) only studies the behavior of the system in a fixed (closed) environment. Such models do not always respond to questions related to the nature of the system itself, the behavior of which is being studied. It is well known that the behavior of the system is an important aspect In her study.

However, aspects of the system associated with its genesis, structural (gestal) aspects, aspects of complementing the logic of the system with its subject, etc. may even be the most important aspects of the system, and so on. It allows you to correctly raise the question of the reasons for one type of behavior Systems depending, for example, from the external environment in which it functions.

Condratyev's cycles In this sense, only the consequence (result) of the system reaction to the external environment. The question of the opening of the nature of the process of such response today and the opening of factors that affect the behavior of the systems is relevant. Especially when many, relying on the results of N. D. Kondratieva, A. V. Korotheev and S. P. Kapitsa about the sealing time, predict more or less quick transition of society by the permanent crisis period.

Studying the history of the world market development of the world market, it is easy to notice that economic Development Cycles all financial system At times they are transferred to instability cycles in macroeconomics.

During the recession of production, the inflation rate grows to a critical mark, and therefore unemployment increases rapidly, and many enterprises come to bankruptcy.

Over the past two hundred years, a cycle of maximum rise and development is observed, but at the same time there were cases of a stable increase in economic development cycles, which many times were replaced by the cycles of large recessions. Since the media of the cycles was repeated more than once, it pushed economists and analysts to engage in the analysis of the causes and patterns of such a shaky position of cyclicity in the development of market macroeconomics.

In the economy there was a concept of a cycle that can be divided into four states

Namely:

• cycle crisis
• cycle Depression
• cycle of revival
• and lifting cycle

A full cycle of economic development is a cycle in which the economy passes four stages of development, and then comes to its first phase. At the stage of the crisis, the slowdown in economic development begins, accompanied by a decline in production volumes and as a result, a violation of equilibrium demand and suggestions.

The imbalance covering the entire market economy has a negative, and at this stage violates the entire global economy of countries. Violation of the balance in separate areas of the economy, provokes a crisis in this area and neighboring industries. For example, credit, financial and stock exchange crisis.

The cyclic crisis contains all the stages of the cycle that are periodically repeated. There are also intermediate crises that have properties to interrupt any development phase. The sectoral crisis has an impact only on what or specific sector of the economy.

What are the cycle phases and their features?

Depression. It has the following features: a decline in production and prices for goods, an increase in monetary units, a gradual reduction in unemployment, improving the conditions for the next rise in production, aligning the imbalance between supply and demand.

The phase of revitalization. It has the following features: achieving production volumes that took place before the start of the crisis, satisfying the increasing client demand in the market, the rise in prices in response to an increase in demand, an increase in financial resources, as a result, an increase in the loan rate, unemployment rate.

Phase lifting. Includes the following points: Production dimensions are superior to the level before the occurrence of a crisis situation, the unemployment rate is sharply reduced, the demand increases, prices increase, the need for financial resources increases, the credit rate increases.

The modern stage of economic growth is manifested by the signs that were before the economic crisis.

The features of the stages (phases) of the economic cycle indicate that some indicators of economic development are rapidly increasing during the lifting, and decrease during the recession.

Such indicators are usually called cyclic. Several about cyclic indicators similar in their characteristics with a phase of the cycle (namely: profit, GDP, etc.), others have a relatively small similarity (this is: the production of various permanent demand products, natural resources, etc.).

There are both that fall during the rise of the cycle and increase during the recession, they are called the counter cyclic. This includes: reserves from any production, loss of enterprises, the degree of unemployment.

Another kind of development indicators, called acyclichas no relation to the cycle phase, but is typical for some countries.

The specifics of the change of economic indicators were allowed at the stage of evolutionary formation of the market economy, it is easy to exit the decline from the phases, applying the mechanisms of market self-regulation. The extensive sections created in the economy of the scientific and technical revolution, which are stable in the crisis, but in this connection the influence of negative processes into other industries of economic development increased.

Crisis in economics

Development national economy In the conditions of the market, it is not straightforward, but waving. The essence of the development cyclicity is expressed in a certain pattern of alternation of the heyday of the economy and the rapid growth of production with periods of sluggish economic situation and slow production growth or even its absolute reduction.

There are certain patterns of cycles of alternation of these periods. In each of the cycles, the same phenomena are repeated. Their alternation made it possible for their study and marked the beginning of attempts to predict new cycles.

Cyclic economy development It is very controversial, which served as the basis for the appearance of a large number of points of view on this problem among economic scientists. But still lacks a single cyclical concept, which undoubtedly talks about the importance of this phenomenon for the economy.

The study of cyclicity, as a certain fundamental phenomenon in the dynamic development of the market economy, began in the nineteenth century. It continues today. Foreign and domestic economists are trying to develop methods for predicting the flow of each cycle so that each phase does not harm the economic development of society.

Cyclicity as an economic pattern recognize not all scientists. However, real life confirms the existence of this process, and cyclicity as a problem can not not be interested in a modern person.

The concept of cyclicity:

The cyclicity is a form of development of the national economy and world economy as a whole, this movement from one macroeconomic equilibrium on the scale of the economy as a whole to another.

One of the first economists who began studying cyclicity was K. Marx. He allocated four phases of the economic cycle: Crisis, depression, recovery, rise. The classic political economy proceeded from the situation that the economy may and should be constantly in a state of equilibrium, and the problem of cycles did not do, moreover denied their existence. In addition, K. Marx was the author of the destructive for capitalism of economic theory, so his contemporaries were not engaged in their question, but refuted all his arguments. Only after J. M. Keynes substantiated the need to regulate the market economy by the state due to the cyclic nature of its development, a detailed study of the nature of cycles and mitigation methods rendered to the crises to the economy began.

In modern Russian conditions, the relevance of the problem of cyclic development of the economy has a particularly acute meaning.

Cyclic nature of the development of the economy

The cyclic nature of economic development is manifested in the consequences of cyclicity, which can be divided into negative and positive.

Negative consequences of the cyclical development of the economy:

1. The crisis phase of the economic cycle is a tragedy for many firms, minor manufacturers and especially for ordinary people. During this period, for example, the level of suicides is even increasing.
2. As a result of periodic industrial crises, a large number of entrepreneurs and simple consumers suffer.
3. Production carries significant losses.
4. During the rise in the growth of production, the foundations for the next crisis are laid, and the better the situation looks in the rise period, the worst of the consequences of uncontrolled growth during the crisis.
5. A strong crisis can cause both the country's economy at the post-crisis level for a long time.

Positives of the cyclicality of economic development:

1. From the point of view of macroeconomics, in each cycle, crises mean the death of small commodity producers, technologically weak, inefficient industries that can be called disease on the body of the economy, and survival of the strong, most competitive, with an excellent organization of industries, enterprises.
2. Crises also heal the capitalist economy, with each cycle forcing it to ascend to a new technical level, to achieve greater proportionality of economic development.

The laws of the cyclical development of the economy can not be ignored or assumed that crises are caused only by external or incomprehensible factors. The cyclicity is a form of development of the national economy and world economy as a whole, this movement from one macroeconomic equilibrium on the scale of the economy as a whole to another.

In fact, cyclicity is the so-called "sanitary" of the economy, which cleans all the dieting and helping everything in a viable in the economy.

To smooth out the destructive effects of cyclicity, it is impossible to do focus only on theoretical studies. It is necessary to analyze the statistical material for the entire period of cyclic development of the economy, to investigate the reasons that led to a particular crisis in the past.

The cyclic nature of the development of the economy means that the rapid growth of production at a certain period of time is replaced by its crisis, after which economic growth is again.

Causes of cyclic development of the economy

The enormous impact of the cyclic development of the economy forced economists to seek the causes of cyclicity, in order to learn to predict the development of each specific cycle. This desire is clear, because if with a sufficient degree of reliability to predict the development of one or another phenomenon, it is possible to determine the degree of its influence on each person individually and the whole society as a whole. You can predict the possible development of the cycle only by finding out the causes of cyclicity.

Causes of cyclicity, like the emergence of any other processes in the economy, must be sought in the economic activity of people.

For example, J. M. Keynes considered the crisis in the economy of excess savings in the population and the lack of investment in production, which causes the occurrence of cyclicity and economic cycles. It follows the theory of absentia, according to which crises and depression are caused by the fact that too much of the current income is saved, and not invest in production. The reason for too large savings is an uneven income distribution. Only the one who has large income can save.

Another important cause of crises, as a source of cyclicity of economic development, is the excess of the production of means of production over consumer goods. This question occupies a central place in the theory of surplus. "Industries manufacturing manufacturing goods are exposed to the economic cycle much more than industries that produce everyday demand goods. In the upgrading phase of the economic cycle, the production of industrial goods is growing, and in the downward - reduced much more sharply than the production of short-term use products." It is this disproportion of the production of goods, according to the theory of overcover, and causes a crisis. According to this theory, in the conditions of the planned system, this reason turns the economy into self-selected when it starts to function for the production of production tools, while the production of consumer goods is moving into the background.

K. Marx also engaged in the development of the causes of the cyclicality of the economy. Marx derived the following cyclic causes:

1. Contradiction between production and consumption.
2. The high level of production organization at individual capitalist enterprises is confirmed with an unregulated, natural effect market system generally.
3. The physical life of the main capital.

The first reason for cycles is due to the fact that the desire for a limitless expansion of production for the sake of greater enrichment is the main purpose of any entrepreneur. They apply the introduction of new technologies, reducing costs for the production of a unit of goods to increase productivity. Incentive for this is market competitionA peculiar natural selection in the capitalist environment. In this case, demand is also growing, but, alas, he is lagging behind production growth, and at some point produced goods do not find demand from buyers, which causes a crisis.

The second cause of cyclicity also leads to excessive production growth, but in contrast to the previous one, it is more susceptible to neutralization.

The third reason for the cyclicity of the economy is the need to update fixed capital. Updating fixed capital every 10-12 years in the XIH century and every 7-8 years in the twentieth century coincides with the phase of revitalization in production. It is this reason that is a periodic updating of capital - and sets the temporal parameter of the economic cycle.

Among the large number of other reasons for cycles, three most significant are allocated.

1. The difference in the time of capital circuits in different industries and their relationship.
2. Circulation capital in some industries contributes to the development of capital circulation in other industries, actually making the development of some industries dependent on the development of others.
3. Therefore, in case of any, even if not very serious changes in the development of one industry, the development of other industries can respond to this arising crisis.

In modern conditions, a sharp problem is a debt burden, which also acts as the cause of the economic crisis that determines the onset of the new cycle. Therefore, "Another important reason for the occurrence of crises may be the sale of goods and services on credit. For some reason, mass defaults may begin, which will inevitably provoke the crisis." The crisis of non-payment in the literal sense of the word does not allow to survive, functioning enterprises. This causes managers of enterprises to close them and stop production. As a result, the unemployment rate is growing, and the salary falls. All this causes urgent goods. The overproduction crisis begins. But the crisis and unemployment are interconnected and determine each other.

Of particular the cause of cyclical economy is related to its militarization. In the period of war or preparation for them, an increase in investment is played military sphere. Militarization of the economy delayed funds from industries that produce consumer purposes. As a result of finishing outflow from these industries, where they could also reduce the level of unemployment and increase the capacity of the market, the deficit of goods, depreciation begins money population due to starting inflation. In addition, investment in the economy ceases, the economic development of economic development or even its stop or stagnation occurs. A household peculiarity of the processing of economic development can be considered a replacement in the lexicon of people the words "buy" for the word "get".

Considering the reasons for the cyclicity of the capitalist economy can not be emphasized on some one of them. It is quite natural that the reasons are unequivocal, but only together they are the basis for the cyclical development of the economy. All these reasons each time occupy a different position in provoking a crisis and lead to a change of the economic cycle.

The development experience of countries with a developed market showed how high the price of a high level of consumption: the waste of resources, irrational capital use, a malfunction between human activity and its environmental environment.

A number of factors inhibits the course of social development:

• the unbalance of scientific and technical, economic, environmental and social components of economic growth;
• exhaustion of the possibilities of the economy regulation systems;
• weakening incentives for work and accumulation.

All these reasons were reflected in the demographic, environmental, energy, commodity, food and structural crises against the background of the cyclical development of the global economy. With different varieties of these global crises, the Russian economy was also faced, which experienced their many negative consequences exacerbated by the nature of the functioning of the economic system.

For the successful confrontation of the negative consequences of cyclicity of economic development, the following factors are necessary:

1. The country must have developed factors of production, prevent significant structural disproportions and systemic problems of an internal nature.
2. The inertial and extensive nature of economic development should be combined with the introduction of innovative technologies, an increase in labor productivity and living standards.
3. In the circuit of the economic system must prevail industrial enterprises different industries, the production of goods and services should be diversified, agriculture must provide more than 80% of internal consumption.
4. The heavy industry and enterprises of the military-industrial complex should provide production for internal use and export.

Implementation of these conditions, taking into account the scale of the economy, allows you to minimize the impact negative consequences crises in the framework of economic cycles, taking into account the revealed causes of cyclicity.

Output

Considering the reasons for the cyclicity of the development of the economy and the individual fundamental features of economic growth, which are non-linearity, unevenness, uncertainty, alternativeness, etc., it can be noted that they determine the key role of scientific and technological progress in ensuring modern economic growth.

Literature

1. Keynes J. M. Selected Works. - M.: Economics, 1993.
2. Sazhina MA Economic theory. - M.: Infra-M, 2007.
3. Salikhov B.V. Economic theory. - M.: Dashkov and K, 2014.
4. Shishkin A.F. Economic theory: in 2 kN. Kn. 1. - M.: Vlados, 2002.