Can the dollar rise up to 200 rubles?

The continuing collapse of the Russian currency on the eve of the twentieth anniversary of the August 1998 default forces the experts to discuss the most pessimistic scenarios

Is this possible: dollar 200, and euro - 250? Of course, no, you will answer, - after all, it would be a blow to stability. But, as you know, everything is possible in Russia. Especially in the "anniversary" anniversary of the August 1998 Defalt.

Ruble already asked 12 percent

Then, twenty years ago, as a result of the actions of the government, which was appointed Boris Yeltsin, the ruble exchange rate hit three times - from 6 to 18 rubles. Peak values \u200b\u200bin September - December 1998 reached the mark of 22 rubles per dollar. The country woke up on August 18 in the new economic reality. The absolute majority of the population in one day turned out to be a poverty line, a protracted political crisis began.

It seems now even nearby nothing like that. We are told that the position of Russia is steadily, that the country has large reserves. "The government and the Central Bank monitor the situation, possess all necessary tools to ensure financial stability"," Said the first Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov yesterday. So, after all, Yeltsin is three days before Defalt-1998, answering the question of journalists, whether the devaluation will be stuck: "No. There will be no devaluation. This I declare clear and firmly. "

Well, what is happening now? Height exchange ratesthat began on August 7, still not stopped. Only for today the dollar added another 1 ruble 35 kopecks, and the euro rate is 90 kopecks. This is if we talk about official courses. In the exchanger, the dollar is already sold at 69 rubles, euro - by 79. Thus, the national currency as much as a week asked about 12 percent.

What does this mean for ordinary citizens? It is calculated elementary. Since 80 percent of the Russian food market is monitored by foreign manufacturers, the rise in food prices on average can be 9.6 percent (12 multiply by 0.8). Of course, it will happen if the course will delay at the current marks at least a month.

We are told that the cause of what is happening is Western sanctions, already announced and preparing, but is it? "Interested" wrote that on August 6 - 7, the Central Bank began planning to buy large volumes of currency for the Ministry of Finance, provoking its market shortage and, accordingly, the cost increase. Experts believe that the beginning of the ruble is the Office of Elvira Nabiullina, spending on the currency of 15-6 billion rubles per day. When the ruble exchange rate began to collapse, the dollar and the euro purchased two more days - August 8 (in the amount of 16.7 billion), August 9 (in the amount of 8.4 billion), and only on August 10 stopped (0 rubles). Apparently, it was not without a swarm of the Kremlin.

Did the officials in twenty years?

In 1998, no one also believed that the dollar rate would come to three times. It was simply impossible to imagine. But the impossible happened. Then the cause was the crisis in Southeast Asia, the collapse of GKO (state short-term bonds) and a sharp drop in oil prices. But the main thing is the urgent action of the authorities. Today the situation is in many ways. Of course, she is not so black and white, as twenty years ago, but after all, the world has become much more difficult during this time.

First, experts predict great problems for the OFZ (bonds of a federal loan - these are the same long-standing GKO, only side view) - in the case of a ban from the United States to buy them foreign investors This tool can fall.

Secondly, possible local crises in Turkey, China, European countries as a consequence of a trade war, provoked by the States. Trump can be considered a fool, an upset, showman, but he leads a very smart game, consistently and almost free - with the help of Twitter and Speakers from gentle - creating a crisis for the crisis in different parts of the world. And demonstrating that only the United States is a calm harbor for money.

In third, officials and deputies since 1998 did not ask. When there are ideas about the ban on the walking of the American currency, do you think that with heads from those who suggest that? Or when the silhouans already mentioned calls the dollar "risky financial instrument", I sincerely perplex: is it joking so, or seriously? If seriously, it is, Anton Germanovich, not the dollar fell by 12 percent over the week, he rose by 12 percent.

Finally, fourthly, relatively high oil prices should not calm down anyone: the trend can change at any time, oil prices - the thing is unpredictable. And then what? Yes, reserves to support the ruble exchange rate, enough for several months, maybe even - for half a year. And then on the scoreboard in the exchangers of Russians, three-digit numbers will meet?

Of course, up to 200 rubles per dollar and 250 - for the euro, the case is unlikely to come. Such a scenario is still fantastic, unreliable. But the dollar is 100 and euros to 120 - what's impossible in this? No need to remember the prehistoric 1998, let's remember the 2014th. Then, for the second half of the year, the dollar rose from 34 to 65 rubles, euro - from 47 to 75 rubles. IN percentage It is even more than the above numbers.

Of course, we all want this gloomy scenario to come true, but in Russia, alas, in August there is always something unkind. Well, if not in August, so in September.

Nikolai Pechecnikov,

Victor Ivantsov,

internet magazine "Interest"

Famous analyst Maxim Sidiables about the Argentine scenario for Russian depositors, cancellation of the Currency of the USA and Tramp Trading Wars

"Let's hope that in this August the new crisis will not begin," the head of the analytical department of the Bank of Corporate Financing Bank Maxim is encouraged. In an interview with "Business Online", he told why the "hellish bill" was sent not only against Russia, but against Donald Trump, which visa cards And MasterCard may be blocked and in which case the dollar will cost 67 kopecks.

Maxim Saddy told why the "hellish bill" is directed not only against Russia, but also against Donald Trump Photo: Stop Frame Video

"The current fluctuation in the domestic financial market will not turn into at least in August, in the crisis.

- Maxim Stanislavovich, the ruble falls again. On Friday at the opening of the auction, he struck a mark of 67 rubles per dollar. In your opinion, what happened? Is it possible to call what is happening a panic? The Central Bank claims that the ruble rate increased in recent days is the natural reaction of the financial market for news on new potential sanctions against the background of changes in global financial markets. This was also told the day before and Anton Siluanov. In your opinion, are they right? Only preparing sanctions play against the ruble?

- While there is no panic. And among the main causes of the devaluation of the ruble, in addition to, of course, the expected sanctions are expected, the planned procurement of the Currency of the Ministry of Finance.

"Yes, the Ministry of Finance announced that from August 7 to September 6 will buy currencies by 383.2 billion rubles - it is more than two previous months. Maybe there is a conscious weakening of the ruble?

- This is the planned purchase of currency associated with the excess of the market price of the oil (currently it exceeds $ 70 per barrel) over the base level of $ 40 per barrel. The currency is sent to the National Welfare Fund. This purchase is a game against the ruble. It really looks very strange in the conditions of a sharp devaluation of the ruble.

- Why, as you think August is already traditional for the unfortunate month for russian economy?

- The 1998 default happened indeed in August. However, the crisis of 2008-2009 began in September, and the next crisis - in December 2014. Let's hope that in this August the new crisis will not begin.

- Let's hope? Are there any more specific expectations and feeling that the crisis can really happen? For example, a month ago, Bank of America declared the probability of repetitions of the 1998 events, when in Russia, as we remember, a default happened. The same disappointing forecasts were given nobel laureate Paul Krugman and billionaire George Soros. What do you care personally? In April, when the ruble also fell, you said that you should not expect the recurrence of the situation of 2014. Now the situation is different?

- As you can see, then I was right. Let's hope that this time I do not miss the forecast: the current fluctuation on the domestic financial market It will not turn around, at least in August, in the crisis. With one small condition - if "hellish sanctions" will not be adopted, because the cause of fluctuations is not the sanctions themselves, but only their expectation.

"If Russia falls into the list of countries - sponsors of terrorism, then all 100 percent of our economy will be affected by new sanctions"

- Think that there is a possibility that new package Sanctions will not be accepted? And if we assume that it will still be accepted, what will be his influence on the Russian economy?

- Donald Trump administration is unlikely to be interested in accepting this bill. Moreover, he is partly directed against Trump. And the emergence of this draft law is explained primarily by the activation of senators before elections to the Congress, which will be held on November 6 and during which 35 senators from 100 will be re-elected. For senators, this bill is part of their election campaign. Trump is trying to "blame" with Russia, but he has too influential opponents.

If the bill will be adopted in full and Russia will fall into the list of terrorist sponsors, the consequence will be the crisis is stronger that it began in 2014, and possibly compared to the damage to the 2008-2009 crisis. Let me remind you, Russia's GDP in 2009 decreased by 7.9 percent.

- Is it possible to call the current state of the economy by the predefolt (by analogy with the pre-infarction)? Does the Kremlin refuse to reform from such annoying people of reforms as an increase in retirement age and other?

- Not yet, the situation is radically different from the one that was in 1998. Especially since then one of the causes of default was the fall in the price of oil, and now oil at high price levels.

- Will the states bring us to default? How serious can new sanctions be hit in Russia?

- If "hellish sanctions" will be introduced in full, then the Visa and MasterCard cards issued by banks that have fallen under new sanctions will be blocked. These banks will actually be deprived of the opportunity to make non-cash operations in dollars. It is possible that, taking into account the dominance of banks from the new sanctuction list (not yet adopted) on Russian banking market The country's leadership will have to resort to extraordinary measures, such as freezing deposits in foreign currency or their conversion to the forced disadvantage for investors - following the example of how it happened in Argentina. There may be more gentle tightening measures monetary monitoring.

- But while the default can not be afraid?

- While the situation does not seem to be overly tragic, most likely, this fluctuation in the domestic financial market will quickly dissipate, because, I repeat, its source is not the sanctions themselves, but only their expectations.

- What effective measures, based on the experience of 1998, were adopted russian government For non-removal of large-scale default? Or was there no measures at all?

- It is better to proceed from the experience of the crisis of 2014-2015, since the crises of 1998 and 2008-2009 have a completely different nature. During the 2014 currency crisis, the Central Bank used a wide range of tools. In particular, on December 16, 2014, to stabilize the situation in the financial market, the Central Bank sharply raised the key bid - from 10.75 to 17.25 percent. This measure was effective together with currency interventions, as well as with the provision of currency liquidity banks with the help of currency swaps and currency repo. The effect of repatriation and sale exporters currency revenue, as well as the explanatory work of the Central Bank with particularly robust speculators.

The experience of the crisis of 2008-2009 was taken into account - the Central Bank realized the need to keep atols for the emergency supply of banks by ruble liquidity. However, then used unsecured loans. This tool turned out to be overly dangerous both in terms of the risk of non-return and due to the powerful devaluation effect - the giant volumes of ruble liquidity splashed to the market, wrapped the ruble, as the credit and stock market did not function in normal mode.

"Even if you buy currency and place it abroad, when the" iron curtain "falls again, it will separate you with your currency forever"
Photo: Kirill Callinikov, RIA Novosti

"The current splash of the devaluation of the ruble is the reaction of only the expected sanctions"

- Will there be oil to "turn" the ruble in the near future?

- the price of oil is unpredictable.

- Nevertheless, is it now a key factor, somehow affecting the course? Or can we say that the ruble rate from the price of oil has ceased to depend?

- Oil continues to have a powerful impact on the ruble exchange rate, but the positive effect of high oil prices is overlapped with a negative effect of capital flight from Russia, primarily due to sanctions.

- How active in the market now there are speculators? Some offer them somehow control. Is it at all possible and do you need?

- In December 2014, the Central Bank conducted educational and explanatory work with the most robust currency speculators. Also carried out similar work and with exporters so that they "surrendered currency" - sold export currency revenue.

- And after all, is the ruble exchange rate now managed? Did it cost him then to let go of free swimming?

- The Central Bank released the ruble in free swimming in November 2014 - before the start of the currency crisis. He refused the politics of the dirty sailing of the ruble in the currency corridor. In December 2014, the Central Bank resorted to large-scale currency interventions, but after the currency crisis he refused them, and today the Central Bank has committed verbal intervention on currency market.

- The Central Bank assures that the volatility of the ruble is controlled and not worried. Does this mean that the ruble can omit until the previous values \u200b\u200bin relation to the dollar? Or will he beat the next record and consolidate at this mark? What do you think, what exactly?

- The current splash of the ruble devaluation is the reaction of only the expected sanctions. What is the reaction of the market, if the sanctions become expected real? Everything will depend on whether the sanctions on paper or the "Hellian bill" will be "hellish law", as well as how much this bill will be adopted in full.

- Nevertheless, I would like to hear concrete numbers. Does the ruble have a bottom of the fall in the next perspective?

- If the package of "hellin sanctions" is fully accepted, then a wooden course can fall no fact that up to 100 rubles, but even up to 200 rubles per dollar.

- In general, would you advise now to buy dollars? In the long term, the ruble rate can be played back positions?

- What if currency deposits freeze? Or if the free circulation of the currency prohibits, how was it with the Communists? So far, these predictions look "nonsense" from the point of view of particularly intelligent deputies, but time is very quick to reverse ... Even if you buy currency and place it abroad, when the Iron Curtain drops again, it will give you to your currency forever .

"Today, the Central Bank has committed verbal intervention in the foreign exchange market"
Photo: Ilya Potaev, RIA "News"

"The devaluation of the ruble is beneficial to exporters, including Russian oil and gas giants - Rosneft and Gazprom

- Is it worth expecting tightening monetary policy? Or is the current situation not so critical to raise a key rate?

- If the "hellish bill" Graham - Mendendes is adopted in a more or less full, then the tightening of the DCT is inevitable, including an increase in the key rate. The tightening of currency control over the Iranian pattern is possible.

In general, the United States is solved by its sanction policy against the Russian Federation - the task of Russia with the European Energy Market, primarily the gas market, because the share of Russian gas in the European market is about 40 percent. The place liberated by Russia in the European market will occupy American companies - suppliers of liquefied natural gas. There are already negotiations on the construction of ports in Europe for the reception of American gas.

- Is there any likely that the ruble will grow? Some analysts indicate that even without sanctions from the ruble, a sad future, because on the background of the buying of the Ministry of Finance and the stagnation of the economy, the ruble is difficult to go to growth.

- If the "hellish bill" is not accepted and other harsh sanctions will not be accepted, then the ruble will have good recovery prospects.

- Who, besides speculators, is the rapid fall of the ruble exchange rate and who will receive political and economic dividends from this?

- The devaluation of the ruble is beneficial to exporters, including Russian oil and gas giants - Rosneft and Gazprom, because their revenues are in the current dollar dollars, and costs are in the cheapest rubles. Especially since the conjuncture on the hydrocarbon market is now quite favorable, Brent is more expensive than $ 70 per barrel.

- Euro grew up at 3 rubles. Is it a blowing currency, minor with respect to the dollar? Why analysts traditionally give her less value, arguing about American green?

- the main mass of calculations on international market carried out in dollars.

"The current splash of the devaluation of the ruble is the reaction of only the expected sanctions"
Photo: Grigory Sysoev, RIA "News"

"If the ruble will be cut off tomorrow, two zero will be cut, then the dollar will cost 67 kopecks"

- Do you admit that the situation will ever arise that the dollar will cost again 60 kopecks?

- Easily. The easiest option is a denomination. For example, if tomorrow the ruble will be cut two zero, the dollar will cost 67 kopecks. A return option is also possible to the ban on the free circulation of the currency, which was at socialism. For example, in 1987, the dollar officially cost 67 kopecks, but an ordinary person could buy dollars in this course only in the case of travel abroad. At the same time, the course in the black market depending, for example, from the city could be 10 times higher.

- Senators this week offered to abandon the dollar. Is there a practical meaning in this? Does this not turn into our economy in the economy closed type? And is it possible to survive in it?

- These proposals are frankly inseparable, they are aimed at destabilizing our economy. Even the Soviet economy was not closed. Even the economy of North Korea is not closed. The main trading partner of North Korea is China.

- Some experts believe that crisis process Not interrupted since 2008. What do you think, did they happen for these 10 years of "enlightenment"?

- "Enlightenment" from 2010 from 2010 until mid-2014, as well as in 2016-2017, but we successfully found an adventure on their ruble.

- Donald Trump, it seems, started a trade war against everyone. In your opinion, in which world trade wars will be increasing for the whole world, for Russia? Trump wrote in Twitter, that such wars "easily win". So will the winners in it?

- In trade wars, as in ordinary, there are also defeated, and winners. For example, we in an undeclared trading war with China suffered a crushing defeat, losing whole industries. For example, the domestic textile industry was almost completely destroyed.

- What, in your opinion, will the current trade war ends? Will the states be able to get out of it the winner?

- I think there will be an exchange. Trading duties will cancel or drop both sides, but at the same time the United States will try to get some additional benefits.

Maxim Stanislavovich Odadchyhe graduated from Physifak MSU and Ros.

The seventh most popular stock analyst 2007 according to the "Investugur" and "MEDIALOGY". Eighth place in the ranking "The best stock analytics of 2006 on banking sector"RBC. Railing. The tenth in the ranking "The best stock analytics of 2007 on the strategy" RBC.Reetting.

Since 2009, he has headed the analytical management of the Bank of Corporate Finance.

In the finhae, the dollar is predicted for 200 rubles to March.

Two analytics long before the sharp depreciation of the ruble predicted the occurrence of a leap of a dollar and euros. Now, according to their assessment, the market is waiting for short-term stabilization, after which the ruble will again weaken, write "Izvestia".

So, the director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis of FBK Igor Nikolaev in March stated a number of publications ("MK", \u200b\u200b"Metro", "poster") that "the average annual ruble rate will be at least 45-50 rubles. For the dollar", and that "55- 60 rubles per euro "is an optimistic assessment. He also noted that for depreciation intkbbch The ruble may affect the aggravation of the political situation, strengthening the net outflow of capital from Russia to $ 150-200 billion at the end of the year, the fall in oil prices, decline in construction, reducing investment in fixed assets, collapse of quantitative mitigations of the US Federal Reserve System.

Also, the private manager of Yekaterinburg Vitaly Kalugin predicted in March the dollar rate for 40-45 rubles. Edition "On the eve" justifying this: "By political reasons", that is, against the background of sanctions.

Note that the day before during the trading on the MICEX, the dollar reached a record 48.64 rubles, the euro was also rising 60.27 rubles. On the this moment Analysts, believe that in the near future the national currency will weaken, and next year the dollar can cost 60-65 rubles.

"The macroeconomic reasons were affected for the weakening of the ruble, which predetermined the dynamics that we now see," explains Igor Nikolaev. - The economy is practically not growing now. The state of the economy affects, for example, the tax burden, which is now growing and in the future it becomes more and more. Of course, the declining oil prices, given that we have not been able to reduce our dependence on oil and gas. There are other reasons for which we cannot affect. For example, the US Fed Policy. But even here we knew that quantitative mitigation programs were not infinite. Influenced, of course, and sanctions. One of the most powerful measures was a limitation to external financing sources. Accordingly, when companies and banks do not turn out to occupy dollars in the foreign market, and debts need to be given in the same dollars and accounts for them inside the country, the currency becomes less and the price is growing. "

In turn, Kalugin connects a sharp weakening of the ruble exclusively with speculation in the foreign exchange market: "If people expect that today the dollar costs 40, and tomorrow it will cost 45 rubles, they, of course he runs to buy him. It is impossible to blame them for it. Accordingly, until nobody restricts them, it is a self-disstaining spiral. The farther the ruble is weakened, the more new players joins this movement. And as long as the Central Bank does not limit it, panic covers increasingly broad layers of the population. And speculators, knowing that they will be given the opportunity to sell the dollar to the maximum, for example, individuals, buy it at any prices. "

Nevertheless, Kalugin expects that by the new year, the dollar will return to the mark of 41-42 rubles, but it will be only a short-term rise in price. According to him, in 2015, the dollar will begin to grow seriously, but refrain from forecasts. With this, I agree and Nikolaev, however, in the pre-New Year rebound of the ruble, he does not believe. It predicts the growth of the dollar in the near future to 55 rubles, and now it will not be able to stop the weakening of the ruble in any way.

Director investment company Nikolai Solabutu predicted "Finam Management" predicted that by March 2015 the dollar will cost about 200 rubles.

So, according to Solabuto, the reason for such a fall of the ruble will be the reduction of oil and sanction, because of which Russia needs to pay debts that took the company in the West.

"All the worst we must survive before the new year. After the new year, the recovery of the economy will begin. But this is the worst, really terrible, we assume that the dollar will stabilize somewhere around 200 rubles, "said the director of the investment company.

Soaputo also noted that until December of this year, the dollar will rise in price by 50 rubles, and in the first quarter of 2015, the cost of the US currency will still increase.

Previously, representatives of the two largest retail banks - Sberbank and VTB24 - noted the increased demand for the currency among the population in the last week. At the same time, VTB estimated the excess of demand 3-4 times. Meanwhile, the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov on November 7 stated that the fall of the ruble was "speculative" and that the Central Bank had enough reserves for an operational response.

A popular task appeared in the people: at the same time, and at the same time, the price of oil and the price of the dollar went towards each other. How soon and at what point they will meet? Considered? Wrong answer. Because they will not meet. And no one knows the correct answer. But versions of the sea - from sedative to disastrous. Which one is more like the truth?

The Bank of Russia has abolished the mechanism of course policies.

From November 10, the Corridor of the Bivarny Basket and regular interventions on the borders of the corridor and beyond, writes the Forex Euroclub a dealing center www.fxeuroclub.ru.

"It became obvious that the Central Bank actually has little reserves - more precisely, free reserves, currencies he can spend on a decline in the dollar and euro. After all, most of the reserves of the Central Bank are invested in various assets ... "

The news did not cause an excitement, she simply confirmed the long-apparent one. "The Central Bank simply recorded the situation in the situation," Mikhail Belyaev said the head of the banking section of the Finnotremation. - The Central Bank and thus sorreated from the regulation of the exchange rate, referring to the fact that he leaves the market with currency interventions and lets the ruble to free swimming. The fact that he played in a bivarny corridor, moving his border more and higher, pretending that he regulates something, "he was engaged in complacency and to pretend that he controls something."

Here it would be no joke afraid: if chief Bank Russia went out of a bivarny corridor, who he left for whom? On the market mechanisms? And what will happen now if "free swimming" occurs without a loss and a rescue circle?

But immediately, the people reassured President Putin himself, who reported from the APEC summit: "OUR financial authorities Take the necessary measures. central bank Countries continued inflation targeting policies. " And he also entertained: "The jumps that we observe in the foreign exchange market will soon cease."

Come to March?

But when, at what point these jumps stop? Experts prophesy different numbers, and they are one in one: it will happen about.

If the dollar and the euro continues to strengthen on average per ruble a day or two, then by the new year the US currency will cost about 100 rubles, and the European will pass for a hundred. However, the managing director of the largest broker of Russia "Finam Management" Nikolai Solabuto promises to the new year, still the course in fifty rubles per dollar. The rationale for him is: "Now nothing is connected with the Central Bank, nor with the leadership of the country. Just due to the fact that they introduced sanctions against Russia, it is necessary to pay debts that took Russian companies in the West. And it is the payment of these debts that these transactions are associated with the growth of the dollar. Companies close their debts by buying a dollar and hoping to them. Debt canopy is very large. The central bank does not interfere, as its gold and foreign exchange reserves are not enough to sell as much as the currency is needed by Russian corporations to pay debts. Everyone is looking at what is happening and can not do anything. Until the New Year, all this canopy from buyers will come to no, then there will be stabilization. "

But if the main driving force of the ruble devaluation is large debt russian companies Western banks and the need for the end of the year pay off on accounts, then the course will "find out" and stabilization will begin? Yes. But not immediately, the mechanisms are launched and immediately stop them. Another quarter ruble will move closer to the abyss.

"After the New Year, the recovery of the economy will begin. But this is the worst, really terrible, we assume that the dollar will stabilize somewhere around 200 rubles, "Nikolai Solabuto predicts.

However, the well-known Russian scientist and economist Jacob Mirkin does not foresee any fears and the course of the currency does not frighten: "By the end of the year -

in the area 39-40. In 2015 - up to 48-50 rubles per dollar, an outbreak of inflation, "he doubts.

Who is guilty?

Sanctions, of course, is not the only reason for the weakening of the ruble. There are many of them, and they agreed together, and not in the most bizarre version.

The head of the Central Bank of Elvira Nabiullina through the comma listed a number of perpetrators. These are banks, exporters, importers and in general the population of Russia: "On the expectations of the course of the course of this game, unfortunately, all, including the population, are included. Exporters can delay the sale of currency revenues, and importers can buy the currency of the future, because they need to pay contracts. But you should not look for some enemy collusion. "This is a behavior that follows from the permanent expectation of the course of the course," the head of the Central Bank explained.

Professor of the Institute of Business and Business Administration of Ranjigs Mikhail Torchoe added to the list of offenders of the ruble decline in prices for oil and unpretentiousness of the Russian authorities to such a turn of events: and Vladimir Putin, for his part, called speculators. This is what they lead dishonest games on the Russian foreign exchange market. "But no one will punish banks for the game against the ruble - in Russia there is no ban on currency speculations," the President of the Association of Regional Banks Anatoly Aksakov recalled.

VERSION

Flat, machine, fitness

How to protect yourself from an impending crisis until it is not very clear. Get into dollars or stay in rubles? The financial ombudsman Pavel Medvedev does not advise this: "Change rubles for dollars and euros - a risky council, - Medvedev believes. - There is a possibility that because of a sufficiently high difference between the purchase course and the course of sale you will not win anything. " And this is at best. And what to do? "I like another tactic, which is followed by many of my friends, is advised by the Ombudsman. - Now is the time to spend money on the fact that you have long been necessary, but the acquisition of this product or service you have been postponed. Excellent investment - in own health. "

The head of Sberbank of Russia German Gref urged not to shift from one currency to another: "You need to decompose all your savings in the cart of currencies and maintain it balanced. Then no news from the Forex market will not introduce you to trance. "

Maybe it really is worth going through the crisis in concerns about yourself? After all, there are no reliable recipes today. Many advisers believe that save savings is most effective in real estate. But these are considerable amounts, not everyone has it. In addition, prices for square meters Very sensibly react to instability of money, losing the price. What then? Purchase products to work? But it is not yet known that it will rise from food, and what is not. Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Association of Manufacturers and Suppliers of Food Products "RspectrodSoyu" Dmitry Leonov probably called two products that have already been injured, however, for various reasons. This is a long grazing rice, the share of which comes up to 90%. And, of course, the notorious buckwheat, but this time not because of the attachment demand, but because of a banal fault.

According to the WTCIOM, most Russians keep savings in national currency and do not consider the amount less than 243 thousand rubles by savings. But now, when the savings are melting, without moving from the place, is it worth transferring bills to currency, while they did not give the ruble for the ruble?

Expert advice on this score remains the same: put money on a bank account needed in the currency in which you are going to spend them later. And in any case, do not panic, do not fuss: health is more expensive than any money and at any rate.

If oil fell to $ 25 per barrel, the Russian budget will be executed without a deficit during the dollar at 210 rubles. Such calculations made economists bank of america.

In December last year, the President of Russia stated that the maximum allowable budget deficit - 3%. For this, experts were calculated, the dollar should cost 140 rubles.

In mid-January, the chapter said that the agency develops a stress scenario in which the price at $ 25 is laid.

"We are preparing a stress test scenario in order to be ready for any surprise," said Ulyukaev.

In his opinion, the reversal of the oil market can occur at any time. As long as the approved budget is premature, "because it is high, the degree of uncertainty and do not need to pull the budget-headers without the need." Recall that the Russian budget for 2016 assumes that the average annual oil price will be $ 50 per barrel, and the dollar will be at the level of 63.3 rubles.

The devaluation of the ruble is unlikely to become the main solution tool budget problems, Chief economist Ing Dmitry Fields. A sharp weakening of the ruble will significantly worsen the state of the economy, so neither the Ministry of Finance nor the Central Bank will not be consciously to these measures.

According to the Minister of Finance, the Government has already decided to optimize the budget, and the Offices must submit their proposals to reduce costs by 10%.

Since the beginning of the year, Brent oil fell in price by 20%, for the first time since 2004 dropped below $ 28 per barrel. The dollar rate has risen above 79 rubles, and the euro rose to 86 rubles. IN last time above 79 rubles. The dollar rose a little over a year ago - December 16, 2014: Then the maximum since the denomination of 1998 was recorded 80.1 rubles / dollar. On January 20, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange reached the highest value since the denomination of 1998 - 80,295 rubles, which is 1.734 rubles. Above the level of closure of previous trading.

At the beginning of the year, oil analysts of the largest investment banks lowered their forecasts:

Barclays analysts Kevin Norrish and Michael Cohen wrote in his review that they were forced to make adjustments to the forecast of oil prices due to a serious deterioration in the situation in the oil market in early 2016.

"Although we still expect an increase in oil prices in the second half of 2016, we see that growth will begin with more low levelsThan earlier, and will be slower, "the review says.