The age structure is described using groupings and relative indicators... Most often, one-year and five-year age groups are distinguished, but other groupings are possible, depending on the goals of the analysis.
With a one-year grouping, people of the same age or the same year of birth are united into one group. The distribution of people by one-year age groups opens up the best opportunities for analyzing the state and changes in the age structure. However, data on the age structure in the one-year grouping are subject to the deforming influence of such a phenomenon as age-related accumulation. Many people do not attach much importance to the accuracy of indicating their age, and in the past many did not know their exact age, so they indicated it in the census approximately, with rounding.
A graphical method is also used to analyze the age and sex composition. In the latter, age-sex pyramids are especially often used, which are a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by age and sex. Typically, pyramids are built for one year or five year age groups. A sex and age pyramid is a chart in which the number (or proportion in the population) of people of each age is represented by a horizontal bar of a certain scale. Age groups are plotted on the ordinate, and the number or proportion of the population of the corresponding age is plotted on the abscissa. From the ordinate axis, scale stripes are laid in two directions - to the left for men, to the right for women. By the characteristics of the age and sex pyramid, protrusions or deformations of its segments, one can judge the influence of the processes of fertility and mortality on the age structure of the population over many decades, as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size. Let's see an example (Figure 2.2):
Figure 2.2 Age and sex pyramid of Russia according to censuses of 2002 and 1989
Analyzing this age-sex pyramid, we can draw the following conclusion: at birth, the proportion of boys and girls is approximately equal, and by the age of older (pensioners), the number of women increases.
Unlike fertility, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and general form its configuration. The sex disproportion is clearly visible only in older ages. At the age of over 35, the numerical superiority of women is already noticeable.
The modern age and gender pyramid of the population of Russia was formed under the influence of two groups of factors: evolutionary changes as a consequence of a natural decrease in mortality and fertility during the demographic transition and perturbation influences associated with economic and social upheavals that were so rich in the history of Russia in the 20th century. If there were no such perturbative influences, the contour of the pyramid would change gradually, reflecting the aging process typical of the demographic transition period: the base of the pyramid would become increasingly narrower, its upper part would become wider, the ratio of the male and female parts of the pyramid would not undergo large changes, and its edges would remain smooth.
Figure 2.3 Age and sex pyramid of Russia, 2009
In reality, the Russian age and sex pyramid in the second half of the twentieth century was characterized by deformed, torn edges and a very strong asymmetry of the male and female parts of the pyramid. This is precisely the effect of the perturbation factors in Russian history.
Although the consequences of the most severe social catastrophes in the first half of the 20th century are gradually being "forgotten" by the age-sex pyramid, their traces are still very noticeable on the pyramid of 2002, where the consequences of the social upheavals of the 1990s were added to them. Comparison of the pyramids of 1989 and 2002 allows us to judge the general nature of changes in the age-sex composition of the population of Russia over the last intercensal period.
It is also true that in Russia, unfortunately, there is a very high male "supermortality" at working ages. Nevertheless, the interpretation of the huge "female preponderance" as a consequence of the economic and political reforms of the 90s has nothing to do with reality. Over the past decade, the sex ratio in the population of Russia has become not worse, but better.
The main reason for the Russian "female advantage" is the Second World War and the associated huge loss of male generations. Naturally, as the war recedes into the past, the sex ratio evens out.
Thus, the improvement in the sex ratio at older ages is clear evidence that the influence of social upheavals and, above all, wars on this ratio is losing its significance. In middle ages, however, the unfavorable ratio is undoubtedly a consequence of the excess mortality of men in peacetime. However, it is this ratio that has not changed over the past ten years or has changed insignificantly (in the city it has improved slightly, in the countryside it has slightly deteriorated), which once again indicates the compensatory nature of the dynamics of mortality rates in this period.
For a more detailed acquaintance with the age-sex structure and change age-sex pyramids(see Appendix 2).
When analyzing the age-sex pyramid, it is possible to determine the type of age structure of the population of the territory or settlement... Usually, there are three types of age structures of the population:
- · Young population - a wide base of the pyramid, sharply tapering upward - a progressive type of age structure (Fig. 2.a);
- · The aged population - the pyramid tapers from the base gradually and only at the top - sharply, in fact, it has the shape of a trapezoid or even a rectangle - a stationary type of the age structure of the population (Fig. 2.b);
- · A very old decreasing population - the pyramid expands from the base upwards and only at the top (in the oldest age groups) sharply narrows - a regressive type of population age structure (Fig. 2.c).
In accordance with three types of age structure, the modes of population reproduction can be distinguished:
- · Expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical for most modern developing countries of the world);
- · Simple reproduction - there are about the same number of people in subsequent generations as in previous ones; the population size, as a rule, remains almost unchanged (typical for some developing and developed countries);
- · Narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; the population is declining (typical for most developed European states, including Russia).
Correspondence between the reproduction regime and the dynamics of abundance will be observed in a specific territory in the absence of significant external migration flows. With intensive emigration (outflow of the population), the number can decrease with expanded reproduction. With significant immigration (arrival), the population, on the contrary, can grow even with a narrowed reproduction.
Also, it is quite important to calculate the demographic load (the ratio of the working-age population, on the one hand, and the unemployed (children and the elderly), on the other). Let's get acquainted with the demographic load factor (table 2.3):
Table 2.3 Demographic load factor
To dem.load. = LNV / S * 1000,%
where: LNV - the number of disabled people;
S is the population size.
Dem.load2002 = 591/943 * 1000 = 626.7% o
K dem.load2001 = 604/947 * 1000 = 637.8% o
To dem.load2002m.t.w. = 368/943 * 1000 = 388.6% o
K dem.nagr2001m.t.w. = 323/947 * 1000 = 341.08% o
K dem.nagr2002s.t.w. = 317/943 * 1000 = 336.2% o
K dem.load2001s.t.w = 321/947 * 1000 = 338.97% o
For a visual and joint presentation of the age and sex structures of the population, the so-called. age-sex pyramids. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the population by age, with the female population on one side (right) and the male population on the other (left). The vertical axis of the histogram is an age scale expressed in one- or five-year intervals, ranging from 0 years to the age limit or open age interval. And the total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the entire population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted in the form of horizontal stripes, the area of which (or length in the case of equal intervals) is proportional to the named indicators. For the purpose of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age structure, pyramids are built using the shares of the size of a given age-sex group in the entire population and taking the total population as 100, 1000, or 10,000.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in the years when this tool was proposed for visualizing the age-sex structure of the population. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather some kind of upside-down trash can.
The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at any point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in fact, it is like a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, by the comparative length of the stripes, one can judge the influence of the processes of fertility and mortality on the age structure of the population (and over many decades), as well as on future trends in population reproduction and on possible prospects for changes in its size in the future. If, for example, in a certain year and period of time the number of births is noticeably different in one direction or another from the neighboring ones, then this will be reflected in the age-sex pyramid in the form of either a protrusion (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years), or a failure (if this number is correspondingly less). And this deformation, passing through more and more older ages, will persist for almost a whole century, until this set of births dies out. And it will influence both demographic phenomena and phenomena of a completely different kind, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. etc. The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the influence of various historical events on the reproduction of the population: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
The age-sex pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since with increasing age the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of the ideal population, in which the birth rate and mortality rate would remain unchanged for a long time, would have the appearance of an almost isosceles triangle with rectilinear lateral sides (but still slightly skewed to the right, that is, towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuate over time, sometimes very sharply.
Borisov V.A., Delugrafiya: Textbook for universities. M., 1999.S. 88.
The age-sex pyramids can be used to study other demographic and socio-economic phenomena. So, demographers build pyramids by gender, age and marital status. The economic-demographic age-sex pyramids are widely known, which are used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generation 28.
An important aspect the use of age-sex pyramids is to analyze the relationship between the age structure and population reproduction. The connection between the age structure and population reproduction was noticed relatively long ago. Back at the end of the 19th century. Swedish demographer A.G. Sundberg introduced the concept into scientific circulation progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases and, moreover, rather quickly, with a stationary one - it does not change its number, and with a regressive one - it decreases.
They differ from each other in the proportion of children aged 0-15 and “old people” aged 50 and over. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and the “old” - 10%; in stationary, respectively, 27 and 23%, and in regressive - 20 and 30%).
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 30s. XX century by the German statistician F. Burgdörfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid; a chart depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell; the regressive age structure is answered by a figure called (perhaps not without some irony) an urn. These figures are shown in fig. 3.1.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the population of Russia. Below (graphs 3.8 - 3.10) pyramids are shown for 1939 (population census 1939), for 1998 (calculated data) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, lower version). The first of these pyramids is a pyramid of a typical young growing population with high fertility and relatively high but declining mortality. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by the acute events of Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the "pit" located in the age range from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the civil war that followed. These events left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age of 35 years (especially in the 35-39 age group).
Rice. 3.1. Types of age structure according to F. Burgderfer 29
Chart 3.8
The age-lola pyramid of the population of Russia, 1939
The rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of the population losses from military operations, epidemics and other unfavorable events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (a protrusion at the age of 10-15 years), some of its growth due to the prohibition of abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 30s, caused, no doubt, by those socio-economic and political events that took place in the country at that time.
On the pyramid of 1959, one can see deep gaps in the numbers of births in 1916-1918. (World War I and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919 (it is still difficult to find an explanation), then growth until 1929 and a sharp decline in 1930-1935. ... Then the deepest failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the years of the hardest war. It is important to pay attention to the still relatively wide and widening base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate in the country. ... It is easy to notice the numerical preponderance of women, especially over the age of 30. Unlike fertility, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and the general form of its configuration.
Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. M., 1999.S. 92-93.
In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining mortality rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the age-sex pyramid in 1998. Traces of the decline in fertility in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes in these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined exclusively by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 1998
Chart 3.9
It was during this period "without hindrance" that the action of global factors developed, which in their totality determined the inevitable offensive already in the 90s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in post-war years... The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high during these years. Then, on the pyramid, a "pit" is clearly visible, falling on the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and fertility in the 60s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the needs of most families for children, which occurred against the background of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 70s - the first half of the 80s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the bars in the diagram corresponding to these years.
And finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took place in the 90s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid tapers continuously. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 1998 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic. Further evolution of the reproduction of the population of our country in this direction will determine that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the XXI century. the view shown in Graph 3.10, based on the 1998 UN forecast (lower case). We see before us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a burial urn.
Chart 3.10
Age and sex structure of the population of Russia, 2050 T. UN forecast. Bottom option 30
At the same time, the authors of the forecast are in fact very optimistic in their predictions. They proceed from overestimated estimates of future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, the birth rate, starting from 2000-2005, will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, that is, until 2050. What is this forecast based on? completely incomprehensible and not commented on in any way.
The reality will be much more tragic if, of course, nothing is done to stop the decline in the birth rate and depopulation in our country.
Summary graphs, charts, tables are irreplaceable accompanying statistics. One of them is the age and sex pyramid, which provides a rich field for analysis. We will devote this article to her, along the way having analyzed the composition of the population of Russia with the help of this diagram.
About the age-sex pyramid
Age and sex pyramid is a graph that distributes the entire population by sex and age. It represents, respectively, the opposition of two groups of people of the same age - men and women. The schedule can be drawn up by years of life and by larger categories - five years and decades. Its appearance depends entirely on the goals of the component - to present a sex and age analysis of a short period of time or the scale of a century, centuries.
The standard view of the age and sex pyramid is as follows:
- Each highlighted age is a horizontal bar in the chart. Shows the number or proportion of people of a given age among the total population.
- The youngest groups are at the bottom of the pyramid, the oldest are at the top.
- On the left side of the diagram - the number or proportion of men of a particular age, on the right side - women.
What does the age-sex chart say in the first place? About the evolution of population reproduction in a specific period, about its type, which is determined by fertility and mortality rates in different periods of analysis, and, in addition, determines the total number of men and women of a particular age.
Types of age and sex pyramids
- Progressive... It is characterized by a high proportion of the young population against the background of the elderly. This effect is achieved due to the expanded type of reproduction. The age-sex pyramid for this type will look like a triangle. The wider its base, the higher the birth rate.
- Stationary... A simple type of playback is observed. At the same time, the diagram resembles a bell in its shape - the number of young and old population is approximately equal.
- Regressive... In this case, narrowed reproduction is evident. The shape of the diagram repeats the urn - a small number of children and young people, but high percent adult citizens.
If you compare the age and sex pyramids with the vital graph, you may notice the following:
- Wars, leading to a decline in the young population and a decrease in the birth rate, have a great influence on the structure of the diagram.
- Reflected on the edges of the pyramid and migration of the population - the proportion of adult men of working age is increasing.
World age and sex composition of the population
If we consider the age and sex pyramids of all world states, then the latter can be conditionally subdivided into the following categories:
- The number of women and men is relatively equal in Latin America and Africa.
- The female population prevails over the male - this phenomenon is typical for half of the countries the globe especially in Europe. This is due to the echoes of world wars - until now, the harmonious ratio of men and women cannot be restored.
- The male population predominates over the female - typical for Asian countries, mainly for China and India.
Russian sex and age structure
The age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, compiled on the basis of the general results in 2002 and according to statistical data, demonstrates the following:
- The general analysis shows a visible gender imbalance in the population: before the age of 29, the number of men prevails, 30-44 years - the number of men and women is approximately the same, and after 44 years, the number of women increases in order to 3 times exceed the number of men at around 70 years.
- We can say that the country's population is steadily aging. This is not due to an increase in the proportion of older people, but due to low fertility rates.
- In 2016, the share of children under 15 years old was 17%, and the share of elderly people over 65 years old was 20% of the total population. This state of affairs can lead to a sharp reduction in the income of citizens (there is one dependent for one able-bodied citizen). Only an increase in the birth rate can save the state of affairs.
Age and sex pyramid of Russia in 2017
Let's present the data for 2017 in the form of a table.
| Age: | Men: | Women: |
| 0 | 979 812 | 927 463 |
| 10 | 762 818 | 727 275 |
| 20 | 711 645 | 679 614 |
| 30 | 1 305 776 | 1 286 426 |
| 40 | 1 037 511 | 1 103 251 |
| 50 | 842 687 | 956 797 |
| 60 | 867 544 | 1 163 224 |
| 70 | 412 537 | 711 701 |
| 80 | 210 032 | 535 326 |
| 90 | 35 060 | 143 638 |
| 100 | 2 208 | 9 400 |
The age-sex pyramid is important for analysis not only for statisticians and demographers, but also for any person who is not indifferent to the social situation in his country and around the world. The chart allows you to analyze the past and present, and also make some predictions of the future.
The age-sex pyramid is a graphical representation of the distribution of people by gender and age at some point in time. This is a two-sided chart in which the number of people of each age and gender (or their share in the population) is depicted by a horizontal bar of the same scale. The stripes are located one above the other in order of increasing age values (usually from 1 to 100 years), on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Age-sex pyramids are constructed according to censuses and surveys. The area of the steps of the pyramids corresponds to the number of people of a given age and gender or their share in the population (while the length of the step corresponds to the density of a given age group - the number of people per unit of age).
When analyzing the pyramid, 2 points are taken into account: Tikhomirova N.P. Demography. Analysis and forecasting methods. Textbook. manual for universities.- M .: Exam, 2205.- 256 p.
- 1. Comparison pyramid shapes in countries with different demographic regimes . For example, in developing countries the base of the pyramid is broader, as children and young people account for a significant proportion of the total population compared to adults and the elderly. V developed countries on the contrary, the base of the pyramid is narrowing, as there is a gradual redistribution of the population in favor of older ages (aging of the population). In the absence of migration, the shape of the age-sex pyramid depends on the trends in fertility and mortality.
- 2. Analysis of the details of the age pyramid: small and numerous generations . Influence of demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration) on the shape of the age pyramid:
- 1) Fertility The number of some generations may turn out to be less in comparison with neighboring generations already at birth. In order for the decrease in the number of births to be reflected in the shape of the pyramid, it must be short-lived, otherwise the "failure" on the pyramid will not appear.
- - the number of children born may be affected by a decrease in the birth rate. In some years, women give birth, on average, to fewer children.
- - the number of children born can also be influenced by the age structure of potential mothers (in some years there are relatively fewer women at young reproductive ages) or their marriage structure (the number of married potential mothers is decreasing).
- 2) Mortality Epidemics, death in war of men of military age;
- 3) Migration
The composition of the population by sex is usually considered together with the age composition as the age-sex composition of the population. It is advisable to do this because of the differences in the age-specific mortality rates for men and women. For every 100 girls born in Russia, an average of 105-106 boys are born; it is a biological constant among those born alive. It can be expressed in another way - for every 1000 newborns, there are on average 512 boys and 488 girls. There are certain regularities in the sex of a born child, depending on the status of the marital status, age, living conditions of his parents, especially his mother. Officially married parents have more boys, and among illegitimate children, more girls. The older the mother's age and the higher the number of births, the lower the proportion of boys among those born. That is, older mothers tend to have girls as their younger children. In a period of difficult living conditions (war, economic crises and others) more among the girls who were born. After emerging from these difficult living conditions, there are already more boys born. This is due to the conditions of gestation and gender differences in intrauterine mortality. It should also be taken into account that the biological resistance of men (boys) is lower than that of women (girls); the mortality of male embryos and fetuses is also higher, this is especially acute in difficult periods of the life of the country and family. The behavioral factor of the population also affects the sex ratio of babies born. At the end of the 20th century, the practice of prenatal diagnosis of the sex of an unborn child appeared and expanded. The desire of parents to have a child of a certain gender and the use of prenatal diagnostics to a certain extent contribute to an increase in the frequency of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions). Due to the mortality rate of men by mature age, the ratio of men and women is gradually leveling off, and in older ages the number of men is much smaller than that of women. Russian statistical yearbook. 2005: Statistical. Sat. / Rosstat, 71s.
In 1894 the Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive.
- · The progressive type is characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of V.M. Medkov. Demography. Textbook for universities: add. m-vom images. RF.-M .: INFRA-M, 2005, 92p .. older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an extended type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the size of the birth rate.
- · In the stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid has the shape of a bell with an almost balanced proportion of children and seniors.
- · The narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation of a regressive type, the age pyramid of which is in the form of an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.
population sex male female
In accordance with the three types of age structure, the modes of population reproduction can be distinguished: Andreev E., Vishnevsky A. and others. "Demoscope Weekly" // Russian age and sex pyramid. No. 215 - 216 of September 26 - October 9, 2005, 479s ..
- · Expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical for most modern developing countries of the world);
- · Simple reproduction - there are about the same number of people in subsequent generations as in previous ones; the population size, as a rule, remains almost unchanged (typical for some developing and developed countries);
- · Narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; the population is declining (typical for most developed European states, including Russia).
The standard pyramid is an area divided vertically into two parts, one of which corresponds to the structure of the display of the male population, the other - of the female. These parts are usually colored in different colors for better visualization, such as blue or blue for men, red or pink for women.
The horizontal division of the figure is made based on the age structure of the population. For the convenience of displaying, it is customary to combine the entire population into age groups with an interval of 5 years. Thus, and the left, the parts of the pyramid, representing the male and female population, consist of horizontal dies, which are located one above the other. However, the bottom of the pyramid usually represents the youngest population, and the ages of the groups increase as you move up the chart.
Pyramid analysis
As a result, the age-sex pyramid makes it possible to clearly determine in which age groups there is a preponderance of the male population in relation to the female, at what ages this predominance is opposite, and in which the ratio of men and women is approximately the same.As shown by numerous demographic studies, in most developed countries, similar trends are observed in this regard. Thus, as a rule, more boys are born than girls, therefore, in the younger age groups, that is, in the lower part of the pyramid, one can see a wider part of the “male” half of the diagram compared to the “female” one. By about the age of 30, this ratio usually levels off, and at the age of 40 and older, the number of women most often exceeds the number of men. Demographers tend to explain this structure of the pyramid by the lifestyle of men, which implies more high mortality as a result of injuries, accidents, hard work, a tendency to bad habits and other reasons.
At the same time, a comparison of several age-sex pyramids built for the same community can provide a useful opportunity to study its demographic structure in dynamics. This, in turn, makes it possible to determine the dominant trend of changes in the socio-demographic characteristics of the community - for example, it can be an aging population or, on the contrary, its rejuvenation.
