Inflation- this is price increase on goods and services directly related to purchasing power Societies (that is, over time, on the same amount of money you can buy less and less product). Inflation should not be confused with such a term as " jump price", Because it has a longer and sustainable nature, as well as its influence evenly in all groups of goods and services, although some of them may not be subjected to inflation.
The opposite term - deflation, that is, the decline in prices is quite a rare phenomenon in the modern economy, most often having a seasonal nature: for example, a gradual decline in the price of greens, radishes, cucumbers for the middle of summer, and then - again the rise in prices.
Causes of inflation.
In the economy there are seven main reasons for inflation:
- Increase public spending, the financing of which causes an increase cash (The inclusion of "printing machine") is over the needs of commodity turnover. This reason is more visible during periods of economic crisis or war.
- Mass lending, also provoking the increase in money supply.
- Monopoly of large companies for the establishment of prices (especially in resource-mining industries).
- Monopoly of trade unions when determining the level of wages.
- Reduction of production (the same amount of money in the country corresponds to a smaller number production Products, that is, more money per unit of goods).
- Course decline national currency (especially with a large number of imports into the country).
- Rising taxes, duties, excise taxes at more or less stable level cash.
Types of inflation.
- Inflation of demand (or a deficit of goods) - when the demand for goods exceeds the offer.
- Inflation offers - production costs ( costs) provokes a decrease in products.
- Balanced inflation - all prices are growing uniformly, regardless of the type of goods.
- Unbalanced inflation - uneven rise in prices for various goods and services.
- Predicted inflation - the expected phenomenon in the light of the development of the state economy.
- The impact-approached is the most unpleasant form, since the population may even be in a panic from such a sharp and unexpected increase in prices.
- Consumer Waiting Inflation is a type of inflation that occurs when rumors about the upcoming increase in prices forcing pre-producers to raise the price, even in the absence of an economic crisis.
Three more types of inflation depend on the rate of its growth:
- Moderate, or creeping inflation - The most slow species considered by some economists as the normal development of the economy (in their opinion, such inflation only stimulates the development of the state's economy, if it does not exceed the indicators of 10% per year). However, there is always a danger of transition of this type in the following type of inflation.
- Galoping inflation - prevails in developing countries, and dangerous for the state economy. With it, the rise in prices can be from 10 to 50% per year.
- Hyperinflation is a terrible phenomenon in the economy: the rise in prices can reach hundreds and even thousands of percent per year. As a result of a huge budget deficit, an excessive amount of monetary signs is issued, which paralyzes the economic activity of the state.
Consequences of inflation.
- The difference in cash (reserves of the National Bank) and cash flows, which provokes depreciation of cash stocks and valuable papers.
- Spontaneous revenue redistribution (sellers lose, lenders, exporters and budget organizationsAnd won buyers, debtors, importers and real-sector workers).
- Most distortion economic indicators (profitability, GDP, etc.).
- Fall course national currency.
Anti-inflation policy.
Anti-inflation policy - This is a combination of state measures to regulate the economy by suppressing inflation.
Types of anti-inflation policy:
- Deflation policy - the policy of regulating demand through credit and tax mechanisms: a decrease in government departure, an increase in interest rates for credit, limiting money supply. The minus is that this type of policy leads to a decrease in the growth of the economy.
- Revenue policy - control simultaneously for prices and salary by installing their limits. The minus is that it can cause public discontent. The second option is external loans, which leads to an increase in the public debt.
- Indexing policy is indexing pensions, scholarships, salaries. Indexing is less effective than previous two options.
- Stimulating the expansion of the production and growth of population savings is the most difficult, but the most effective method.
When studying the concepts of inflation and purchasing power, it is possible to mention such an interesting concept as the Big Mac index - a way to determine purchasing power. This standard McDonald sandwich will act as an indicator of the real exchange rate of the national currency, purchasing power, as well as the availability of the population, because its price in different countries is unequal and directly depends on what was listed. According to 2015 data, Big Mac Ukraine costs 1.2 US dollars, Russia - $ 1.36, in the USA - $ 4.8, and in Switzerland - as much as 7.54 US dollars.
1. Causes of inflation. - § 2. Inflation as a tax on income and capital. - § 3. Characteristics of a typical inflationary process. - § 4. The oscillation of the purchasing "Power of paper n silver money due to the change in their number when the free reassembly of pieces of paper on gold. - § 5. Inflation inflation on national economy. - 6. A bill course of commodity prices. - § 7. Inflation and classes: capitalists, landowners, workers. - § 8. Discrepancy in the pace of emission and impairment .- \\\\ 9. Falling of zalya income from emission. - § 10. Methods of carrying out the following reform. - § 11. Paper-money inflation is a necessary satellite.
nutrition.
After we met all the functions of money as: in the domestic and world commodity treatment, the laws that manage the number and cost of money and their deputies, we are found to proceed to consider cases of impaired equilibrium between monetary and commodity treatment. The violation of this equilibrium usually occurs due to inflation, i.e., the issue of monetary-discovers in excess of the needs of the circulation (inflation - "swelling" of monetary).
§ 1. Already in the monopoly (exceptional law) of the state to the issuance of mandatory in private circulation or, as they say, the possibility of inflation is concluded. This opportunity turns into reality when the state uses this monopoly not in the interests of the commercial circulation, as it should have been, but V.Svoyi's own interests, when therefore, the emission of monetary signs becomes the source of public spending. This source is usually resorted to this source in cases where normal means, i.e., in the form of taxes, non-tax revenues from state-owned enterprises and state loans, all expenses of the state cannot be covered. The need for such monetary emission arises in an advantage in emergency circumstances when funds are immediately received for payment of suddenly increased government spending. Who ultimately covers these costs?
§ 2. In order to answer this question, we must distinguish the real and nominal incomes of the population. The nominal income is expressed in the amount of money obtained, real-in the mass of goods that are purchased for this money. Inflation leads to an increase in nominal money incomes, as an excessive mass of money is launched into appeal, but at the same time real incomes are falling. Suppose you have sold the goods for 15 rubles. In gold, but received paper money on hand, which for some time they delayed at your box office. If at that moment inflation occurred, and therefore impairment of money, let's say, 10%, then, making the second commodity metamorphosis of Dt, you will no longer get on 15 paper rubles. goods equal in value not 15 gold rubles, but less than 10%, i.e. 15 p. - 1 r. 50 k. \u003d 13 p. 50 k. Thus, in the presence of inflation, commodity metamorphosis, keeping its former t-D-T, it changes in quantitative proportions, for the first T is no longer equal to the second T. hence all the metamorphosis will now take this kind:
T (15 r.) - D (15 r.) - T ~ t. (ІЗ1 /, p.).
Thus, the mystery of the paper-money emission as a source of government revenues is revealed. The state by emission expropriages (takes) from the population commodity values, therefore, inflation is nothing but a hidden tax.
Emission tax falls on all types of income (industrial and trading profit, percentage, land Renta and wages) if, when impairment of monetary signs, nominal (monetary) income remains unchanged or rises in the manner of the proportion than depreciates monetary signs. But the emission tax sometimes falls not only for income, but also to capital. Suppose that in our formula T-dt ~ t seller of the goods is the capitalist. In the amount of money he receives from the sale of goods, not only its net income (profit), but also reimbursement of production costs. For example, the cost of the selling commercial party is equal to thousand rubles. (in gold), of which 100 rubles. Make up the profit of Cai - Talist, and 900 rubles. Reimburse production costs. If, during the time that the sales of these goods before the purchase of new products, the monetary signs depreciated on 2 o0 / o, then the capitalist will lose not only the entire profits, but also will lose another 100 rubles. His capital.
From the point of view of the speed and efficiency (success) of receipt, the state of income, the issuing tax cannot compare any other taxes or states. The introduction of new significant taxes, firstly, can always meet resistance from the population, secondly, takes time and extensive costs for their collection. The same with states, from which the population can refuse. The emission tax population, firstly, cannot, do not pay, since inflation has already been committed, secondly, this tax is almost nothing worth the state, thirdly, he relieves the government from directly pressing on taxpayers and, fourth, Gives the state immediate income, which the state can receive the next day after the decision was made to introduce this tax.
That is why in all cases of the emergency or extraordinary state of state in increasing revenue sources, governments always resort to this tool, which in many cases is the only means of salvation. \\ "
Our task is to find out based on the characteristics of the general patterns of the inflationary process, the KCC influence has inflation on the national economy and which classes and groups of the population falls emission tax.
§ 3. The initial inflation point is the normally functioning system of money circulation, in which paper money and a bolong coin are exchanged for metal. Suppose that the whole amount of money, regional 1 billion rubles, consists of 500 million rubles. from gold coins 250 thousand rubles. bilon coins and including 150 million rubles. Silver high periods (1 rub., 50 kopecks and 25 con.) Coins, 50 million rubles. base silver coins (20, 15 and 10 kopecks) and 50 million rubles. copper coins. Finally, 250 million rubles. Available freely located paper money and banknotes. Suppose further that the cost of metal (silver) concluded in the bilon coin is 75 ° / 0. Their nominal value, like coins (the proportion of a few large, existing in "Russia in relation to silver rubles and full twilights). What happens if the state will issue an additional 500 million rubles with an unchanged need to appeal to coin. paper money? In addition, 500 million rubles. How to redundant will be taken from the treasure circulation. Since we have already found out that the treasure function is performed by valid gold money, therefore it is necessary to believe that 500 million rubles will go to the treasure. Gold coins. Due to this, the balance between the amount of money supply and the needs of commodity treatment in monetary signs, and the purchasing power of the bilon coin and paper money will remain unchanged - each ruble in a silver coin ^ and paper signs will be replaced by one gold ruble and all *. Easy appeal In general, it will be 1 billion rubles. Now suppose that the state, in need of money, for example, to finance the war, will release another 250 million rubles. Paper money. Now it turns out that II /, billion rubles. In coins and papers replace 1 billion rubles. Golden, therefore 1 silver and paper ruble will be equal to% of the golden ruble or will be replaced by only 75% of the nominal value of the gold value (17,424 shares of gold), which is subject to them. But is it possible if there is a free chasing that we were previously assumed? Of course it is impossible, for due to the impairment of paper and silver money, everyone will try to exchange pieces of paper on gold and from the Treasury will be extracted at least 250 million rubles from the Treasury. Gold (relevant last emissions, i.e., the release of paper. Money): This gold will go to the treasure, but again the balance of money circulation will again be restored, since those 500 million rubles will be returned to the Treasury. Paper money, which were not accepted by trade turnover.
§ 4. But the state usually resorts to a sharp additional emission of paper money just in those periods when its gold reserves are not enough to cover the deficit in the state budget (i.e., to cover the difference between income and excessively increased costs). Related with this circumstance, the state is always such an additional, covering budget deficit, emissions. accompanies the cessation, the breakdown of pieces of paper and silver is koloto. In connection with the mass requirements of the reprimority, the state would soon lose its stock of gold and would have impaired it would be forced to stop the exchange. Therefore, in order to preserve your golden stock (which is needed, for example, for the purchase of military equipment abroad, where paper money is not accepted in payment for goods. For this, see chapter V) the state, meaning further issues of paper money, always stops the exchange At the moment when actually the exchange is still possible. So, in our example, emissions 250 million rubles. accompanied by termination of the change. The appeal is now 1,250 million rubles, replacing 1 billion angry. rub. Paper and silver rubles will have only 75% of their former purchasing power. And since we suggested that the inner metallic value of the silver ruble is just 75% of its nominal value, then therefore the silver ruble will cost as much as silver concluded in it.
Now let's see what happens to further increase the emission of paper money by another 250 million rubles with the previous speed of circulation? Then all the available means of appeal in the amount of 1 '/ g billion rubles. At the par, 1 billion gold rubles will be replaced. Thus, a further fall of the purchasing power of paper and silver money should occur, and
1 LLC LLC 2 is precisely in the proportion of 1 5 bug5 ash \u003d 3
or every paper and silver ruble will have a buyer
Ykofi by force only on% of the golden nominal. But since the silver ruble itself for the metal contained in it is 3dd 0 ^%) of the value of gold in one ruble, then therefore the silver ruble will be submitted in the circulation of the change value than it concludes. Since \\ "Silver did not depreciate, but only the signs of appeal were depreciated, it is natural that everyone will try to straw silver rubles, and payments to produce with impaired papers. As there is always in reality. Thus, 150 million rubles. Bilon silver coin will go away From the appeal, and in circulation will remain 1,350 million rubles. paper money, bilon copper and base silver coin. But since the state entered the path of emissions of paper money to cover its budget deficits, it can no longer collapse from this path if the budget It remains scarce or even the deficit continues to grow. The more paper money is produced, the more they are depreciated and to cover deficits - it becomes necessary to increasingly increase the paper emission. The money supply is growing like a snowball, the required amount of its growth to make the next step increases: So continuously enhances the inflation rate.
So the emission continues, the impairment of the money supply is enhanced. Following the high-profile silver coin from the appeal, a base silver coin in 20, 15 and 10 kopecks. The monetary mass increased, for example, up to 3 billion rubles, replacing the cost of 1 billion angry in circulation. rub. Each paper ruble now has the purchasing power of exactly% of the golden ruble, and each copper penny has the consumer power of the same penny. Suppose that with a free difference on the ruble of copper money, it was possible to buy 5 times more copper, than the amount of copper, which lies in a copper coin by 1 ruble. Since now paper and copper money fell 3 times, then the copper money will still be in circulation, for despite the fall of the purchasing force of copper money 3 times, yet and now 1 ruble copper can be bought by weight significantly more than the same copper . Emissions still continues and reaches, we indicate, 10 billion rubles. In this case, each paper ruble will replace the X / 10 golden ruble, and therefore the purchasing force of copper money will fall 10 times. And since the ruble of copper itself is not at itself as copper is not 10, but only 5 times less than its golden nominal value, now it will be unprofitable even with copper, and from the appeal will float the last remnants of metal coins, and even a pathetic kuber will be ousted by a piece . Thus, 50 ppm Dzub will disappear from the appeal. Copper money, and some papers will remain, - the position that would know any reader, remembering the years of war and revolution.
Such is the general trend of the inflationary process. Initially, inflation always begins \\ "With a low-rise gold coins, then the free fracture of silver, copper and paper on gold is going on, then the consistent displacement of metal coins, \\" first more valuable silver coins and, finally, copper coins: as a result of the entire process The appeal remains some progressively depreciable paper. Consequently, when impairing the means of circulation, the means of treatment is less valuable in their material, more valuable, and the latter are completely out of circulation. Usually this law is customary called "Grassham's Law" | named London Financier XVI century. However, in reality, this law was formulated long before Grassham,. Back in ancient Greece, and in the Middle Ages in the XIV century. Nikolai Orezmia.
§ 5. So an increase in the number of monetary signs in excess of the needs of the appeal with the immutability of all other conditions of treatment (mass of goods and their cost, the speed of circulation of money and credit balance) inevitably leads to their impairment. But coincidences in the pace of emission and the rate of impairment of money never happens, because other factors of circulation never remain unchanged. So, along with additional emissions in the amount of 20% at the same time increased the cost of car consideration by 20% or a positive loan balance balance was reduced by 20%, etc., then no impairment of monetary signs will occur.
If, on the contrary, the commodity mass has decreased or increased the rate of money circulation, the impairment of monetary signs will exceed the rate of emissions, in our example, the impairment will be equal
not 20%, but about 30% - for example, if we take the issuance of Soviet signs in 1921, we will see the following picture:
In June, the issue was 224 billion rubles. \\\\ TB, monetary signs depreciated by 20%
»» »» 401 »» »» »» 16%
"August" "702" "Fuck, Den strength. zn. Rose "1 ° / o
»September» »1 023» »» | »» »» 11%
»October» »1 950» »Monetary signs depreciated» 27%
»November» »3 336» »» »» 47%
We see here that there is no conformity between the pace of emission and the rate of impairment of monetary signs. So, for August and September compared with June and July, the issue has almost received an emission, and money marks not only did not depreciate, but even increased by their purchasing power by 12% - this is explained very simply: in August and September there is a new crop. And therefore significantly increases the cost of the entire car mastery, and therefore the need to circulate in monetary signs is expanding. When the period of the exercise of the crop is over, and the issue has risen again, then the impairment of monetary signs began.
So, in connection with the variety of factors that determine the need for circulation in monetary signs, as well as the emergency complexity of the mechanism for the influence of excessive emission for the consumer money, never and nobody can be established in advance, what will be the representative value (purchasing power) of these signs not only A month, but even the next day. In addition, it is still necessary to take into account the fact that inflation never affects evenly for the increase in prices of all goods. In these periods, on the one hand, the criterion of a number of goods is reduced, and on the other hand, due to the fall in real incomes of many groups of the population, the structure (structure) of the public "millet is changed. On some products, the demand is extremely increasingly growing, on the other, on the contrary, the demand falls. Because of this, there is a gap between the prices of individual products. So we have in the USSR in 1921-1922. Repeatedly. There were such cases when in 2-3 days the price of some goods increased by 100%, others by 50%? Third prices remained unchanged, and finally the prices of the fourth sometimes even fell.
Finally, this periods also take place between prices for the same goods in different areas, since, on the one hand, inflation waves are not solved evenly in all districts (this moment is particularly important in countries with a large territory, such as The USSR), and on the other hand, the commodity mass will also not distribute evenly in all areas, for a normal turnover is completely disturbed.
In view of all these circumstances, firm soil is disappeared for normal economic activity both in industry and agriculture and trade: no one is taken for "solid" affairs. Of course, there can be no major investment of new capital in industry in these periods, there may also be no question of importing new capital from abroad. The overall normal course of economic life is disturbed, and along with this, the further inflationary process is developing, the greater the absolute volume of production is reduced. We already know that the emission tax falls not only for income, but also to capital. Thus, in these periods, the capital accumulated earlier occurs. But on the basis of a complete disorder of economic life gives abundant shoots speculation. On this chaos, speculators are made on this chaos, which further aggravate the situation: hold the goods of the month-other, artificially causing an extreme increase in prices for certain goods in separate areas, speculators further enhance the rupture of commodity prices in time and space. As the army of speculators is growing, the army of speculators is growing: "No reasonable person wishes to remain poor if he sees his neighbors a state by happy speculation," said one bourgeois economist. Even the tax in favor of speculators is added to the issuing tax in favor of the Society, and the country is influenced by this dual press. The country has a long-term business lane.
§ 6. Finally, it is necessary to note another imbalance caused by inflation. The intervalutar course in inflation is broken down by a coin parity. If monetary signs are depreciated within the country, if they "represent" on behalf of a smaller amount of gold, then. Naturally, they should fall into their bill rate in the appropriate proportion. But if inflation occurs in another country, it is obvious that in relation to the currency of this country, a billionary course of the first country can either fall in a smaller proportion than the internal impairment of money occurred, or remain at the same level or even climb. So, if the German brand depreciated by 10%, and the ruble by 20%, then it is obvious that the brand's course in rubles will not only fall, but even rises. On the other hand, the ruble rate though falls, but not at 20 ° / 0, but only on Y ° / 0, so if we want to figure out the change in the course of the currency, then you need to take a course in relation to such a country where the currency money is straightened Is gold * And such a country during World War was the United States of North America: her dollar remained the golden dollar.
But if you take the vibrations of the bill of exchange rate of the brand or the ruble for. The time of world war is in relation to the dollar, then we will see that although in general, as the ruble and brand internal impairment, their course fell in dollars, but there was no correspondence in the rate of falling the course and internal impairment. "The price level in the country and its bill course," says E. Shchulz, "often diverge: the first one above the second, then the second above the first. They are similar to the pair of unnecessted horses, which are not very painted by the mapping, but of which no one is able to significantly run forward. The tendency towards admirement is absolutely clear. " All this is quite natural * for a bill course is under the influence of the calculated balance, which in each this moment It may change, especially in the credit part, even regardless of the impairment of money within the country, under the influence of at least political events. If, as a result of inflation, the bill rate falls faster than the prices of the country are growing, the export of goods becomes very profitable, and the imports are unprofitable. If, for example, prices within the country increased on Y ° / 0, and the bill rate in dollars fell PA 20 ° / 0, then exporting bread to England and selling it there at the same time, Russian exporters get over the usual profit more exchange earnings when exchanging reversed They pound sterling on rubles. For example, instead of the previous 10 thousand rubles. They will now be charged for the same amount of bread and at the same prices of 12 thousand rubles. Meanwhile, in Tsarist Russia, prices climbed only at Y ° / 0, therefore exporters "Task" will receive commodity values \u200b\u200bin Russia by 1 thousand rubles. (Taking into account 10 ° / 0th impairment - 900 rubles.). On the contrary, importers will lose their loss, because they are as a result of the sale of goods at prices, elevated only at Y ° / 0, and the exchange of rubles for pounds but the course of the ruble, falling at 20 ° / n, will receive less than pounds of sterling on Y ° / 0 . By virtue of the year, the fall of the currency exchange rate acts as an export premium and import duty. If the growth rate of domestic commodity prices is leveled with a dark fall * of the bill of exchange rate or even overtakes the last, then in this case it is impossible to count on solid imported trade, because the permanent fluctuation of the bill of exchange raises from foreign capitalists to get the goods into this country. In general, the fall in the bill rate and especially the unevenness of this fall leads to a complete disorder. foreign trade Countries that have become a path of inflation. These are the main features of the impact of the issuing tax on the economic life of the country. This tax leads to the deepest economic crisis. Who carries the burden of this crisis? And who receives benefits from him?
§ 7. For large hazlepal capitalists, in general, inflation is beneficial. True, the issuing tax gives not only income, but for capital. But industrial capitalists have the opportunity to shift this tax on others.
First, on cash capitalists, the so-called Earlings, i.e., passive capitalists living at the expense of interest on capital provided to industrial capitalists. Earlier receives with impairment of money progressively falling real incomes. In this regard, they depreciate those debt documents that give the right to this income. This makes it possible to industrial capitalists whose monetary incomes are greatly increasing, free from the burden of debt to cash capitalists, i.e., actually exproprical their capital. Consequently, industrial capitalists benefit primarily as debtors. But the very same thing itself reduces the same way or even reduces its debt on internal and external loans. It should be noted that creditors of both industrial capitalists and states are not only Earlier capitalists (living exclusively at the expense of capital), but also broad masses of urban petty bourgeoisie, the peasantry and the working class. All these social groups in connection with inflation lose most of them or even entirely of their savings invested in public loans, banks and savings banks in the form of deposits, etc..
Secondly, favorable market conditions are created for industrial capitalists in connection with the increase in prices. When the bill rate drops stronger than the domestic prices grow, then in this case the import of goods is terminated and thereby disappears competition of foreign capitalists. This in itself creates the opportunity to even more influence prices and speculate "on the \\" commodity hunger. "In fact, not only trade, but also industrial capitalists are involved in this speculation.
Thirdly, the profits of capitalists working for exports are greatly increasing, due to the export coursework.
Fourth, during periods of military time inflation, a number of industries receive huge military orders, and the founders of the national defense are obtained on these state supplies "Iodis Schoskov" of the National Defense.
Fifth, the wages usually lags behind the growth of commodity prices, and thus production costs increase in a smaller proportion than sales prices, which again leads to an increase in the rate of profit. In general, profit both industrial and shopping capitalists (from speculation within the country, export premiums and military supplies) are extremely increasing, and at the same time they increase not only nominal, software and real income. Even more than one: they, as we know, the exciprigation of the inquiry in the loan of capital.
All of the said certainly does not exclude the fact that many industrial and trading capitalists are ruined against price fluctuations and especially in connection with the change in the structure of market demand. We know that the prices of not all goods grow uniformly, and capitalists engaged in the production of goods that have retired in price increases, of course also pay the issuing tax, and in other cases they are completely ruined.
During the world war, the profits of major symbosis have grown tremendously. Thus, in Germany, net profit in 1915, on a relation to the share capital in the chemical industry, was equal to (on average) 31.14%, in the leather-37.7%, Zhirobynoyna- 24.07%, textile - 23, 83%, metallurgical - 23.2%, etc. The net profit of the plant is large, who made the tool of war, increased from 33.9 million brands in 1913 to 86.4 million gold marks in 1914, a number of enterprises increased pure profit 6 times: despite the huge contributions to the reserve capital, the issuance of dividends (profits) in a triple and fourth size against peaceful time was the usual phenomenon. "Already in 1915, one German economist reports, the net profit of some societies has reached the nominal value of their fixed capital." So mayyatskoe joint-stock companyMade of gas apparatuses, with equity capital of 1.3 million frying, issued a net profit of 3.6 million brands. Such "non-protected kings" of the German industry, like Otto Wolf and Gogo Stinnes, were especially acquired in the war. The latter with the help of a skillful speculation, pressure on the press and the government, etc., captured the largest enterprises in the mountain and metallurgical industry, and also in a number of other industries. Total Stinnes commanded 1535 legally independent enterprises within the germination and 572 enterprises abroad in different countries. Later, after the death of the Hugo Stinnes, his concern suffered collapse and collapsed. On the yeast inflation speculators "created" new major capital. So the whole was "created" on the stock exchange during the war the multi-million state of the Herzfeld speculator; This "Circle Exchange" managed, for example, to raise the stock bored by him. Bochum association up to 4 LLC% of their nominal value. In general, "bloody profits" of capitalists during the war reached the fabulous sizes. It is not surprising, therefore, that capitalists are always such hot "patriots" and conduct campaigning "for war. To the victorious end."
Landowners also generally benefit from inflation. In a number of countries and especially in Tsarist Russia a significant part land ownership It was laid in banks (i.e., landowners received long-term cash loans secured by their estates). Inflation exempts from this debt, because the debt is paid by hypotherapy pieces. In this way, for example, in Germany, a burden of 15-billion (in the gold stamps) of mortgage debt (i.e., on loans on the security of the Earth) were reset. But on the other hand, the real incomes of landowners as the recipients of the rent from the peasantry are reduced, but plus still much more minus, then landowners are producers of bread and raw materials - win the export of these goods abroad, using huge export prizes, along with industrial capitalists. A strengthened export of bikeroduks abroad reduces the offer of bread inside the country and even more chasing bread prices up. In general, always and everywhere, landowners act as supporters of inflation and opponents of conducting monetary reforms. ...
Via gravity inflationary crisis falls on the shoulders of small bourgeoisie, an order and especially the working class. Meanwhile, one largest bourgeois economist Denx argues that "inflation leads to a redistribution of the property, which is very unfavorable for Rentcar recipients very beneficial for entrepreneurs, and, with modern industrial conditions, is generally favorably for workers." Regarding the work class, this assessment is absolutely incorrect. how general rule height wages Always lags behind prices. But if * even in certain industries increase not only nomy? Normo-money, but also real wages and reduces unemployment, because it comes to the inflation of wartime, what price is it achieved? At the cost of the physical extermination, part of the working class at the Theater of Military Action. The war and the associated inflation brings such innumerable disasters to the work class and the peasantry, how many miracle becomes in this one. The period of profit of large capitalists.
§ 8. Now consider the question of the role of emission income in the state budget. In solving this issue, it is necessary to take into account the noted above - the incompression in the rates of inflation, and the impairment of monetary signs. Typically, the amount of real revenues of the state from the issue first increases, and later in connection with a rapid increase in prices (i.e., impairment of money) begins to progressively fall, as NN grew a paper-money emission. Missing in the pace of emission and. Impairment of monetary signs can be clearly traced on Danns from the history of inflation, in Russia for 1914-19.19.
An increase in price issues in% increase in the emission of pqct prices and ° (A
cii in? / "and previous previous in% to the previous one to the previous
1 o / v year old year 1 Ol! year go
1914. . 77,1 28,7 1918. . 119,2 597,5
- , . 25,6 20,0 1919 . . 302,5 1 375,6
- . . 61,2 93,5 1920 . . 419,3 594,2
- . . 180,3 683,3 1921 /. 1 315,5 1 614,3
6 3. Atlas. Money and credit
credit turnover, i.e. it is reduced or even turns into a negative value of the balance of the credit balance of money circulation, but this means nothing but the expansion of the capacity of monetary circulation. Further, we saw that paper-money inflation displaces all types of metal money from circulation, and thus the departed metal money is replaced by paper money.
As for the cost of reaching money, this first does not increase, because, since prices remain stable or slightly increasing, there is no reason for such a catastrophic increase in the speed of circulation of money, which we observe at the highest rise in inflation wave. Finally, it should be noted that many by virtue, so to speak, their economic "ignorance" delay the appeal of paper money, accumulating them in "Kubashki", as the Russian peasantry practiced that was widely practiced that "ruble is always there is a ruble." If this is still added that at first inflation, the total volume of production and appeal is also expanding, it becomes clear why the rate of impairment of money (rising prices) is lagging behind the emission rate. The reason for this in a significant extension of the capacity of monetary circulation.
But in the end, inflationary waves overcome the so-called "the law of slowness", i.e. the inertia of the trade turnover, and the turning point comes. The "the law of slowness" turns into its opposite, and the catastrophic and continuously increasingly increasing impairment of money begins in its pace. If earlier paper money was accumulated into "Cubia", now all this accumulated mass is thrown into the market, and it means that the most factor that previously delayed impairment is now strengthening the impairment rates. Everyone seeks to sell money rather, - money, like hot coal, harness to everyone, - and therefore, along with a tide of money from the peasant "Cubes" and urban chests in appeal and along with the new money emission, the state is extremely reduced by the state of circulation. In the same direction there is a sharp increase in the speed of money circulation. The impairment of money is growing rapidly, and this causes the state even more to press the emission and tax press, but the stronger this pressure becomes, the more inflation rate increases, the sharper reacts of the trade turnover on inflation, the more increasing the impairment rate is increasing. Even more than one: the population anticipates GGLi, as said, anticyport inflation, meeting every new inflation wave already increased prices. Prices are growing not only day after day, but even from one hour. So it was in Russia, Germany and Austria ..
§ 9. No matter how the state has increased the printing of paper deems (, it cannot be signed in the inflation in inflation, and every new batch of paper money is devalued even before it falls into circulation. Thus, it is progressively falling The income that the state receives from the paper-money emission. So, according to the calculations of E. A. Transfiguration, the real income of the state from the issue of paper money in Russia and the USSR was equal to (at the calculation of the purchasing force of one ruble in products)
Real income
Years
1914
1915
1916
1917
Years
1918
1919
1920
1921
- 397 million RUB,
- 068 »»
- 768 »»
- 500 »»
525 million rubles. 386 »»
186 ""
146 »»
Thus, in 1921, despite the tremendous increase in emissions, the real income from the latter was 17 times less than in 1917 - all the "cream" of emission tax were already collected by the Tsarist government, and insignificant crumbs remained to the share of the USSR. Clearly, of course, that the state could not build its budget on income of 146 million rubles. from emission. This income since 1918 began to play an increasingly and smaller role in the general income of the state, in particular in comparison with the income from the scribe, and later from the extended. Bringing an insignificant substantive income, the emission tax at the same time introduced such a chaos into economic life and slowed down the development of \\ "productive forces that the refusal of this tax and the conduct of monetary reform was needed. With this need sooner or later, all countries inserted on Path of inflation.
§ 10. The purpose of those monetary reforms that occur in inflation periods is to restore the balance between monetary and commodity treatment. But this goal can only be achieved if the state refuses the issuing tax, that is, it ceases to use paper-money emissions to cover its budget spending. Such is the necessary condition - monetary reform.
The very same reform, leaving aside the technical side of the question, can be carried out by three methods, which in different ways lead to the same goal - stabilization, i.e., strengthening the value of monetary signs.
- Restoration, i.e., restoring the situation that existed before inflation. In this case, redundant money is extracted from the appeal (which is called deflation) and the exchange of pieces of paper is restored, but their nominal value for metal, i.e., for example, for each five-cut paper is paid at the request of 5 rubles. Gold. This method was eliminated by paper-money circulation in the first quarter of the XIX century. In England, in the North American United States in 1865 - 1879 in France - after the Franco-Prussian War in 1871, but this method, of course, is achievable only in cases where inflation has not yet entered very far. When paper emissions reaches many billion rubles, the recovery is impossible to restore, because, with all the desire, the state cannot exchange hundreds of billions of paper rubles for gold; There is no such mass of gold in nature in nature. In these cases, they resort to the diametrical opposite method, namely: -
- Nullification, when the state deprives previously issued money signs of payment, strength, and by virtue of this, their cost is equal to zero. Instead of these nullified monetary signs are issued in a limited number of new exchange markes of monetary signs. So for example in 1791-1796. There were nullified assignations of revolutionary France. In the USSR, the monetary signs of the royal government were actually nullified. But our nullification of these monetary signs has not been associated with the elimination of inflation, because the latter in the form of Soviet signs continued.
- Devaluation, which is an intermediate method between two extremes - restoration and nullification. In this case, the paper signs that are in circulation are not entirely deprived of the entirely, but only partially the metal cost, which is indicated on them, and the government pays, for example, for the paper ruble not 17,424 shares of gold, but less, in a known proportion. The government enshrines a certain course of paper money in gold and on this exchange rate produces exchange; In some cases, new gold money is minted on this exchange rate, i.e., for example, no 10, but 15 rubles are denoted on the former gold ten. But if, for example, the course stabilizes at the level of evils. Ruble \u003d 1 billion paper rubles. And in this proportion, the exchange is restored, then actually such devaluation, as it took place in the USSR, formally, being devalued, very close to nullification. The devaluation was carried out in 1811-1816. And in 1892 in Austria, in 1839-1843. And in 1897, in Russia.
We are a pupil with the patterns of paper-money inflation and the methods of her lunches. The question arises, was it possible to consider "paper -eing gentle inflation in capitalism as ancassual phenomenon? No, periods of normal money circulation are constantly and must be resupected by periods of upset money circulation-inflationary monetary systems.
The monetary system is not an end in the remedy in the hands of the bourgeoisie to strengthen its domination, th bourgeoisie always chooses that nor® \\ "of the monetary system, which at a given historical moment is most satisfied with its living class - interests. These latter in all cases the transition is determined by these latter To the inflationary system. From time to time * taking effects of currencies and more or less disorder of the entire monetary mechanism are essential and non-resistant satellites of capitalism. "Diseases" and even "IUTT" monetary exercise is also inherent in capitalism, as well as crises, unemployment, war, class Fights.
Literature.
- 11. And Trachtenberg, paper money, ch. VII and VIII.
- Prof. 3. Canesenebum, doctrine of money and loan, ed. III, h. I, ch. X, § 5 and ch. Xi.
- Prof. M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky, paper money and metal, snB. 1917.
- M. I. Bogolepov, Paper Money, P.-M. 1922.
- Prof. S.A. Faqner, the problems of the theory and practice of the issue of emission economy, M. 1924.
- K. Diehl, Theoretische Nationalokonomie, BD. III.
- G. Kemeny, Die Fremden Wechselkurse Und Die Umwalzung der Intemationalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, 1921.
- K. Schaefer, classic Rluchea stabilization of currencies, 1923.
- What is inflation and what circumstances is it usually called?
- Give the characteristic of the typical flow of the inflationary process.
- What inflation affects the national economy?
- How does inflation affect the interests of various classes?
- What is explained by the usual discrimination in the rate of emission and impairment of monetary signs?
- Name the three ways to eliminate paper-money inflation and find out what causes the choice of one or another path.
Doctor of Economic Sciences I. Sidiable.
Inflation is called a steady increase in prices, due to which, ultimately, depreciate money, income and savings of the population. Even the weakest inflation is in itself huge dangers for the development of modern monetary economy. It is no coincidence that in the economic policy of all countries (including the most developed) anti-inflation measures - first of all, monetary, aimed at limiting the growth of money supply, are of paramount importance. Famous English economist J. M. Keynes in the 20s of the last century (mainly under the influence of colossal post-war inflation in Germany, defeated in the First World War) wrote: "There is no more cunning, but at the same time a more correct way to overthrow Existing social system than impairment of money. "
Science and life // illustration
After the monetary reform in Germany (1923), the alarms were bought by the weight of old bills.
When inflation sends from stores stores, then the queue can lines for male hats. Drawing of the Danish artist-cartoonist H. Bidstrup. 1950s.
Dynamics of index consumer prices In 1992 - 2001. For almost two years (from mid-1992 to mid-1994), monthly consumer price growth rates exceeded 15%.
Annual growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in 2000-2008.
On the conveyor - friable cheese "Friendship", one of the great brands of the Soviet era, when prices for all goods were fixed.
Share in GDP of social spending in percent (2006). Data on developed countries does not include education costs that reach 5 - 6% of GDP. In Russia, these expenses are 1.3% of GDP.
Causes of inflation and how to deal with it
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon associated with excessive compared with the supply of goods by issuing money. However, this increase in money arises for various reasons. And the first of them is the growth of income of the population, which is not supported by the relevant increase in the production of goods. This appears excess demand that pushes to the increase in prices - the phenomenon, especially clearly manifested in conditions military economy. In this case, it is customary to talk about the "inflation of demand".
Inflation causes and increasing costs, entailing a leading increase in prices for some products or services of natural monopolies, for example on utilities. Then they talk about the "cost inflation". True, divided these two processes in real life is almost impossible, and disputes about what was first - "chicken or egg", demand or costs,
Often do not make sense. Both processes are interconnected. Increasing costs, and therefore prices, requires compensation for melting income of the population (wages, pensions, benefits, etc.). The new infusion of money in the economy in turn increases the demand for prices on prices. And everything is repeated on the new turn of the vicious inflation spiral.
Inflation is able to take different forms. In an adjustable economy, first of all, a planned, team (such existed in the USSR), as well as in military time, when prices are fixed, it can wear a hidden character - this is the so-called depressed inflation. Its companions are the shortage of many products, a surge of shadow trade, a sharp increase in prices in the markets, etc. However, the abolition of such regulation (after the war or in countries that have passed from the administratively regulated to the market economy) often generates "galloping inflation" with mad prices. It arises due to the so-called huge "cash canopy", in other words, discrepancies between the cash mass and the insufficient number of goods.
Inflation is sometimes expressed in a relatively slow, almost imperceptible increase in prices - it is called creeping. However, the consequences of such inflation in long-term measurement have a very harmful effect on the state of the monetary system and the well-being of the population.
During periods, when demand begins to exceed the proposal, inflation is usually enhanced. However, periods (for example, the 70s of the twentieth century in developed countries) are known when inflation and decline in economic growth are united in a new phenomenon, named "Stagflation" (stagnation plus inflation).
A significant role in deploying the inflationary process is played by the so-called waiting times. The expected increase in prices pushes the population to buy goods. Thus, the artificial deficit of some of them is created, and therefore, prices increase, which causes in advance to require an increase in wages (if there is a system of collective contracts). This kind of inflationary expectations are particularly difficult to confuse.
Representatives of the main directions of modern economic theory differ in the assessment of the role of one reason or another causeing inflation. Hence the differences in the proposed anti-inflation policy recipes.
Among theorists, primarily the Western, the most common explanation of inflation with an excessive increase in money supply is most common. Supporters of this point of view - monetarists - proceed from the quantitative theory of money. Here is its essence: any increase in the money supply exceeding the growth rate of gross national product, inevitably gives rise to rise in prices. What are the reasons for such inflation? In expansionist monetary policy central Bank and government spending. Hence the methods of anti-inflation "treatment" offered by monetarists: reduction of budget expenditures and a hard monetary constraint. The main task of the Central Bank, in their opinion, is to maintain sustainable prices and stability of the monetary system that allows the growth of money supply only in accordance with the growth of GDP.
In this, according to Monetarists, and there is the main "rule", which should be guided by the government, despite the nature of the economic situation and the unemployment rate requiring just an increase in government spending to revitalize the economy and stimulating production growth.
Supporters of the so-called institutional theories are adjacent to this detachment of theorists, which the main cause of inflation consider excessiveness of government spending - it will generate the interests of certain populations, political parties and the ruling bureaucracy. The main opposition of inflation, in their opinion, is freedom of competition, free market relations and, above all, restricting the growth of state intervention in the economy, while the state bureaucracy is interested in the opposite. Consequently, such a bureaucracy can not be to wait for true control or limitation of this growth. Consequently, this kind of restrictions should be made in the form of constitutionally assigned rules that would be protected market system From the distorted influence of excessive redistributive activities of the state.
There is also a Keynesian theory of inflation, also associated with the pressure of cash demand. However, on this theory, not any increase in cash demand causes inflation. On the contrary, an increase in the amount of money in circulation, when in the country there are incomplete employment, great unemployment and a significant underload of production facilities, may, on Keynes, stimulate the growth of production, without affecting prices. Genuine inflation appears when there is a complete employment of human and production resources. This is then a further increase in cash demand leads to an increase in no production, and prices, that is, to inflation.
Other economists make focus on the role of costs. The key element leading to the movement of the inflation spiral (costs - costs - costs), they see not so much in wages, but in the policies of trade unions, which, when concluding contracts with entrepreneurs, seek special reservations about the possible increase in wages if inflation rates are raised - That is, about its indexation. But the fact is that large corporations easily translate the growing salary costs in prices. So the mechanism of continuous price increases turns out to be built into modern economy Corporates and powerful trade unions.
Theoretical arguments about inflation and ways to combat it appeared in a developed market economy. To some extent, they can explain the nature of inflation processes in our country. But I repeat, only partially. In our economic system, in its sectoral structure, so many features, more precisely, the disproportions, without accounting, cannot be explained as a multifaceted process, which is inflation.
Show how inflation processes develop there, "for the hill", the author's task is not included. I will only say that the greatest "suffering" from inflation is the economy of Western countries, especially the United States, experienced in the 80s of the last century, when the prices of fuel were sharply increased during the oil crisis. In the US, then a lot was written about two-digit inflation, reaching 14% per year. However, by the end of the 80s, thanks to the measures adopted both in terms of costs and regarding the money supply, inflation decreased to 5-6%. In recent decades and in the United States, and in the European Union countries, the annual growth rates are held at 2-2.5%. Today, inflation is manifested primarily in world markets - in the rapid increase in prices for basic resources (oil, gas and metals) and food products.
Features of inflation in Russia
Many believe that in Soviet times, until the beginning of the reforms of the 90s of the last century, prices increase (they were fixed on all goods), and therefore inflation in Russia did not exist at all. In fact, the inflationary process developed - quietly and secretive. Inflation was depressed. According to some data, the annual growth rate in the 80s was 1.5%. Soon on the shelves of stores, food has almost disappeared. The older generation people remember "sausage excursions" in Moscow. Many cities appeared a kind of card system - coupons, food orders. Money did not mean, they almost had nothing to buy.
The transition in the 90s to economic reforms - and they began with the liberalization of prices in the situation of the universal deficit and collapse of production - made inflation open and truly "robbery". "Money canopy" (that is, the gap between the mass of money, led into circulation, and the volume of commercial products), revealed under these conditions, collapsed. Inflation has acquired a catastrophic scale. Only for 1992 prices rose 26 times, and in the next - more in 10. Consumer prices in the first half of the 90s grew by 15-18%.
The measures taken (first of all, the sharp tightening of monetary policy) led to the fact that by 2000 inflation began to weaken. The annual increase in consumer prices in 2002 amounted to 15.1%, in 2003 - 12%, in 2004 - 11.7%, in 2005 - 10.9%, in 2006 - 8.2% . For 2007, planned to bring inflation to 6-7%, and in 2008 - up to 4-5.5%. And suddenly the fall of 2007 gave an unexpected outbreak of prices that overturned all the forecasts. The government was forced to go for emergency administrative measures to freeze prices for socially significant products - for six types of food.
Only in one month, October 2007, consumer prices increased by 1.6%, and for food - on average by 3.3% (this than three times exceeded the September price increase). Some foods managed to rise in price before price freezing especially strongly: the prices for sunflower oil have grown from July to October by 60%, on butter, milk and dairy products - by 50%, on eggs - by 40%. The rate of inflation in general for 2007 amounted to, according to official data, 12% (we should not forget that the above figures are averaged indicators). On the calculations of the Center for Macroeconomic Forecasting (DSMAKP), during 2007 the goods in the "Poor Basket" went up by 15% (in 2006 - by 9%).
What caused such a sharp revival of the inflationary trend? What is its character - short-term or long-term? There are a lot of "ours" and "not our" specialists about this. Where to look for the original reason? Is an excess of demand that appeared as a result of an excessive issue of money in circulation, or an increase in costs? In my opinion, such an opposition is based on its incorrectly. For, as already noted, both reasons are interconnected, and with anything to start, as a result, we will certainly get a vicious inflationary spiral.
Let's start with the main thing - with an increase in money in circulation. This increase occurred and occurs for many reasons, including thanks to the serious social policy of the state aimed at increasing the income of the population, demanding and demand. Many Russian economists see this main reason for the development of inflation in the country. Others adhere to a more careful position, without seeing direct communication here. The second position seems to be more suspended. Flowing to one of these studies.
Indeed, the author notes, in Russia throughout the 90s of the twentieth century and in the new century the rate of growth of the money mass systematically exceeded the indicators planned by the Central Bank. The range of these excess - from 20 to 50%. In total from 1999 to 2006, the money supply increased by 13.4 times. "Here is inflation," the supporter of the first position will say. But everything is not so simple. First, together with the increase in the money supply, there was a growing demand for the money itself, savings increase. Certificate for this - growth monetary deposits population in savings institutions, especially in Sberbank (this reduces the dependence between an increase in money supply and consumer price growth index). Secondly, there is a slowdown in the speed of circulation of money, and a large mass of money is required to maintain the same commercial circulation. And, finally, the third factor that needs to be considered: the amount of money in circulation is not important in itself, but in comparison with the value of GDP - this ratio is called the coefficient of monetization.
It must be said that with the beginning of reforms, when inflation exceeded all imaginable sizes and the government began to carry out a hard monetary policy, the monetization coefficient was reduced to the minimum imaginable sizes. Even in early 1999, he was only 16%. Then they spoke a lot and wrote about the underfunding of the economy, which became one of the reasons for an acute lack of money from enterprises. Remember the non-payment of salaries and pensions, the spread of barter exchange?
Figures for comparison: the coefficient of monetization in developed countries varies in the range of 60-120%, and in countries with transition economy It is 25-30%. To date, this indicator has reached 26%. As we see, nothing catastrophic in the growth of money supply has not yet been occurring.
Catastrophic consequences could have come if the central bank and the government did not hold back the growth of the money supply coming into the country from the sale in the foreign markets of continuously worthwhile oil. Among the restraining measures, first of all, we note the role of the Stabilization Fund. His magnitude today is almost 4 trillion rubles. For many years, discussions have been conducted on the topic: how long should this "bag" with money and it is time to spend it in one way or another? The opponents of this kind of spending two main arguments. First. The main purpose of the Fund is the creation of a "airbag" in case of a sharp drop in oil prices and the occurrence of a crisis situation in the country. The second argument is no less important: the danger of rampant inflation due to a sharp increase in the money supply. (The same role is fulfilled and the budgetary surplus is performed, that is, the excess of government revenues over costs - more than 7% of GDP.)
Recently, the top of those who believe that it is time to use part of the accumulated funds to develop important sectors of the economy, primarily its infrastructure. It was decided from February 2008 to divide the STAGFOND to the reserve (in the amount of 10% of GDP) and the National Welfare Fund. According to the data voiced by the Minister of Finance A. Kudrin, Vnesheconombank in 2007 has already received the development goals of 180 billion rubles, the Russian Nanotechnology Corporation - 130 billion rubles and the Foundation for the Reform Reform - 240 billion rubles.
But back to the prices that seemingly so unexpectedly took off last fall. Exploring the reasons for rising prices in the country, many economists point to high costs generated by the unreasonable degree of monopolization of industries supplying food to the consumer. In other words, we reap the results of the extremely weak development of small and medium production and the complete inactivity of cooperation. Here is an example: in one milk package, only 5% is its cost; Everything else is packaging, taxes and especially high trade premiums that form profitability of trading networks. It reaches 25-30% (while in Europe the rule was introduced, according to which the return on retail should not exceed 8-12%).
Finally, it is necessary to point to very high rates of rising prices for utilities and housing, transport, communications and gasoline - they significantly exceeded the average growth rate of consumer prices. For example, the cost of electricity as a whole in Russia increased by 15%, and for utilities - by 18-20%. Gas prices and gas are growing: in 2008, the wholesale gas prices for the population and industrial consumers will increase by 25%.
Inflation and food problem in Russia
In the development of the inflationary mechanism in our country important role Plays the so-called unbalanced food problem. We are talking primarily about the shortage of food products. And he is the result of the previous weakness of our almost disassembled agriculture, and unfinished not only as a result of the reforms of the 90s. They only revealed the complete non-competitiveness of its organizational forms - collective farms and state farms arising at the beginning of the 30s of the last century. It is no coincidence that during the transitional crisis, the fall in agriculture turned out to be much stronger than in industry. There was a huge gap between supply and suggestion. Moreover, according to some kind of food, it continues to increase. (For more information about this, see "Science and Life" No., Article B. Rudenko "What will be the fools?".)
This gap fills imports, unfortunately, the tendency to increase. Here are a few numbers: In recent years, the proportion of imports in the consumption of butter has reached 52.3%, fatty cheeses, including cheese, - 42.1%, sugar - 67%, fish - 30%, vegetables, fruits, berries - 32% , meat and sausage products - 40%, meat raw materials - 80%. In general, 35% of products included in the diet of Russians are imported from abroad.
The import value is controversial. On the one hand, it compensates the missing food and the topics solves important socio-economic tasks, but, on the other, it displaces the domestic producer from the market. Often this is because imported products are cheaper than domestic. At the same time, we are in captivity of price movements that occur in world markets. For example, in recent years, food prices began to grow everywhere (according to some data, they have increased 2.5 times). Even a special term appeared - "Agflation", that is, "agrarian inflation".
What is the basis of the increase in prices for agricultural products? First: reducing stocks of grain and oilseeds in many countries of the world, especially in developing, due to the deterioration of weather conditions - droughts, floods, etc. Second: reducing state reserves in the main countries - food exporters in combination with gradual policies Export subsidies. (We are, above all, about EU countries.) Third: an increase in food imports from the rapidly growing countries of Southeast Asia (China, India, etc.). And finally, the fourth: accelerated formation of the biofuels industry, changing the relationship between fuel and agricultural sectors in the global economy and affecting agrarian products.
The strongest impact of agglies had for grain crops, vegetable oil and dairy products. And the growth of imported prices for this products in turn influenced the acceleration of our internal inflation in the fall of 2007 (it is often called imported inflation). But it happens: the measures of our government - quotas and limiting duties, aimed at deterring the imports of certain types of products (first of all the livestock, to create more favorable conditions for the development of domestic production), - in fact, the price increases. The cost of meat is every time such a policy. "Meat and poultry quotas are our man-made inflation," the Minister of Finance A. Kudrin, explaining a surge of consumer price surge in 2003-2004. The ban from Rossel-Knowdzor to import meat from Brazil and measures to limit its exports adopted by Argentina led to the fact that in 2006 the meat prices jumped by 40%. There are many such facts.
There is every reason to assume that the current inflation caused not by itself an increase in money in circulation. It rather compensated for the rise in prices, which became the result of increasing costs. In other words, the inflationary spiral is working, in which the cost inflation and demand inflation interact, the spiral, which is mediated by the growing money circulation and is particularly difficult to stop.
WHAT TO DO?
Fighting inflation, as the experience of developed countries shows and our own, is unusually difficult. It would seem that it is easier: freeze prices or introduce some form of regulating certain types of prices. Unfortunately, such a method can only help for a short time. Freezing prices will soon respond to the growth of the deficit of certain goods and will further aggravate inflation. We already "passed", and should not step on the same rake. Moreover, as many researchers are noted, a certain increase in the price of agricultural products is inevitable, since now there has been a serious disparity of prices for industrial and agricultural products, which thoroughly slows investment in agriculture.
A variant of the reduction of social spending, the growth of which, according to some experts, is guilty of modern inflation, excluded. These expenses are not really so great as our anti-inflammists are depicted. They only partially compensate for the bench life of the low-income layers of the population in Russia. If you look at the share of social spending in GDP, in Russia, then, compared with the developed countries, they are very tempered, (see Table)
As you can see, not the social expenses are guilty of price increases in Russia. The reason for the current acceleration of price increases should still be sought in the field of real factors that have already been said. In support of this conclusion, I will give the opinion of one very reputable specialist on this issue. Speaking at the XVII Congress of the Association of Russian Banks in early 2007, the recent head of Sberbank of Russia A. Kazmin said: "Why are we fighting with inflation only by the restriction of money supply and do not think little about stimulating the commodity offer? With this approach, inflation will grow, despite measures to limit money demand ... We may be in a situation where, due to the policy of limiting money supply, the production of goods is not only export, but also to the domestic market will be unprofitable. Accordingly, we will be more dependent on imports, and competition on domestic market will decrease. "
Agriculture deserves special attention from the state. The state in all developed countries in various forms and scales is flowing for an agricultural producer. In Russia, he turned out to be thrown on the arbitrary of fate. To date, when most of the previous farms - collective farms and state farms - broke, and the newly minted farmers barely survived in hard market conditionsWe had a fairly unique economic structure. The role of a personal subsidiary sector has sharply increased. It produces about 40% of domestic agricultural products. But this is essentially - natural economyhelps the population, especially in the province, survive. Another 8% of products produce our heroic farmers. The remaining 50% of the products are given in equal shares the preserved collective farms and state farms (25%) and the same amount - new agro-industrial holdings created on funds of large industrial enterprises.
And here the program for the development of the agrarian and industrial complex (AIC) is particularly important. The program includes three directions: accelerated development of animal husbandry; stimulating the development of small forms of management; Providing accessible housing of young professionals (and their families) on the village. The project is aimed at an increase in the financial support of agriculture, and not with the help of direct public investment (when there is a big threat to directly unwinding money or their inappropriate or inefficient use), and on the basis of purely market methods - expansion of lending and subsidizing interest rates. Preference is given to the development of the strongest and efficient farms that are able to quickly raise their technical level and increase the amount of commercial products.
It is assumed that the program will stimulate the influx of private capital into agriculture, thanks to which the rather solid sector of agro-industrial holdings has already been created, which specialize in the production of meat and dairy products.
There are many critical reviews to this program. Nevertheless, the program is a very important contribution from the state to solving the problem of food in a country, having, to everything else, undoubted anti-inflationary orientation.
It is possible to believe that with inflation you can end once and for all, it is worth putting a certain "reasonable" government in power - naive utopia. It can be minimized, for example, 2-3%, which managed to make the governments of most developed countries. But for this requires hard work to limit all those objective and subjective moments that are put on prices, pushing them to improve.
It is also important. Even under conditions of reducing the growth rates, the need to periodically index income is maintained, that is, increase their nominal value in accordance with the increase in prices, especially in those areas of the economy, where incomes are fixed and do not increase with increasing production. We are talking primarily about state employees. The government has already recognized the reality of this kind of actions, emphasizing in a number of official speeches, which is another (in February 2008), an increase in pensions and revenues of state employees is compensation for price growth and nothing more.
The work was performed by financial support RGHF (Russian State Science Foundation) in the framework of the project No. 06-02-02043A "Russian transition economy in a mirror of world economic thought".
In order to measure the influence of the country's economy, information about the shaft domestic product, national income, fixed capital, the cost of realized products, costs from the state budget for health care, education, army, and so on, the main production Funds At the beginning and end of the year, stocks current meansvolumes capital investments and other indicators. Employment data is also needed on categories in different sectors, the total population and other information.
As its deepening, inflation has an increasingly negative impact on the country's economy in different directions.
Inflation enhances the imbalances in the economy based on private property. The uneven rise in prices for goods aggravates the inequality of profits rate in various industries, which leads to expansion of production in some industries and reduction and decline in others. In particular, inflation gives an impulse to the swelling of the military industry and inhibits the development of civil industries. The growth of disproportion between the sectors of the economy is disorganized by economic relations. Inflation causes overflow of capital from production to the sphere of circulation. This is due, in particular, by the fact that inflation encourages speculative trade, where capital turns around and brings huge profits.
The problem of capacity, domestic market is exacerbated, as inflation leads to a decrease in real wages and all workers' income. Compressive real effective demand makes it difficult to sell goods. "Overcoming" negatively affects the production of relevant sectors of the economy.
Inflation distorts the normal structure consumer demand. The rise in prices generates flight from money to any goods, regardless of the need for them. Bourgeoisie buys gold, land, pictures, fur, jewelry, seeking to get rid of depreciating money, which "Hand burns".
Inflation enhances speculation. This contributes to the wave-like spreading of inflationary demand by type of goods and the districts of the country. In order to speculate, the capitalists accumulate commodity reserves and then sell them at bloody prices, thereby creating a trade hunger.
Inflation adversely affects international economic relations. Impairment of money, ultimately, undermines the competitiveness of national exporting firms, encourages the importation of goods from abroad, where they are bought at relatively low prices, and they sell them in the domestic market at higher prices. When strengthening inflation national capital rushed abroad in search of more profitable applications and reliable asylum; Following this, the tide of foreign capital begins. As a result, the balance of international settlements of the country can sharply deteriorate.
The functioning of the monetary system is violated. Impairment of money undermines incentives to monetary savings. Therefore, there is a reduction in resources of credit and financial institutions. With strong inflation, it becomes unprofitable to provide loans in commodity and cash form, as lenders carry losses, receiving debts in the impaired money. In this regard, the commercial and bank loan. In the conditions of "hyperinflation", money is applied unsuitable to fulfill their functions. This leads to a replacement of cash turnover natural, i.e. the exchange of goods on the goods. Strengthens the chase for gold as the most real asset.
Inflation is one of the factors of the currency crisis. It creates conditions for the inconsistency between the official and market currency exchange rate, negatively affects world prices and competitiveness of firms, encourages the speculative movement of hot money.
Thus, inflation generated by violations in the process of public reproduction exacerbates them both in the field of production and in the sphere of circulation. This manifests direct and feedback of inflation with the capitalist reproduction process.
The effect of inflation on the economy depends on its type and level. Discern monetary and non-monetary inflation. Classical monetary inflation is that there are many money in the economy, and there are few products. Non-purpose inflation is a rise in prices due to an increase in production costs, a high level of market monopolization, inflation expectations, etc. In short, non-monetary inflation is the result of low efficiency and competitiveness of the economy.
By virtue of the diversity of reasons for rising prices, inflation affects the economy in different ways. Comparatively low monetary inflation stimulates economic growth, since the value of the supply of goods and services, with other things being equal, is directly dependent on the price level. But if inflation is a galloping, then it suppresses economic growth, since in this case the savings, investments, fixed income depreciates, as a result of which the economic entities lose incentive both to an increase in the proposal and to increase demand. Three-digit and higher prices are already hyperinflation, which is considered an extremely painful and dangerous situation.
Especially strongly suffers from inflation. Population having fixed income. These are medium and low-paying state employees, pensioners, students and all those who receive social transfers. Prices for goods and services of low-income groups grow higher rates than the average level of consumer prices.
On the issue of the nature of Russian inflation there is no uniform opinion. Some consider it monetary, others - non-monetary. And hence different methods of combating prices. Monetarists offer measures aimed at reducing money supply by sterilizing excessive monetary liquidity and restriction of government spending. Supporters of the non-monetary nature of inflation believe that the state must more severely control the level of prices for services, and especially natural monopolists, stimulate the reduction in production costs, the growth of labor productivity and resource savings.
It seems that the position of supporters of non-monetary inflation is more realistic. In general, speaking, in real life it is very difficult to carry out a line between the types of inflation. Inflation of demand and cost inflation are very closely connected and interdepended. In my opinion, today in Russia the situation is such that it requires optimization of both consumer and investment demand. It is impossible to give preference to no one or the other. The state should skillfully stimulate both the increase in consumption and the growth of savings and their transformation in investment. Meanwhile, the consumer boom emerged in the past two years sharply reduced the savings rate, which narrows the investment opportunities of the economy, and therefore, the balance between the total proposal (volume national Economy) and cumulative demand (purchasing power of society). Therefore, the target inflation rate in 2007 to 6, 5-8%, many analysts are questioned.
The record growth of oil and gas revenues spawned a new strategic risk of the Russian economy - excessive strengthening of the ruble. If in 2004 the strengthening of the real effective course of the ruble amounted to 4, 9%, then in 2005 it was strengthened by 10, 5%, and in 2006 - by 9, 4%. The ruble has become 17% more expensive than the dollar and 5, 8% regarding Euro (1) ((1) "Vedomosti", January 15, 2007). Strengthening the ruble exchange rate has an inconsistent effect on the economy. On the one hand, he acts as a tool for combating inflation, and on the other, it leads to the loss of income of exporters and the state and to deterioration of competitiveness in the domestic market. Especially important impact on the economy exchange rate Provides through the dynamics of pure exports. Strengthening the ruble exchange rate stimulates the growth of imports. Until the value of exports exceeds the volume of imports, net exports grows and has a positive effect on economic growth. At the same time, when a negative balance of foreign trade arises, net exports decreases, which negatively affects the rate of economic growth.
The complexity of management of strategic risks is that on the one hand, they have a single source of origin - the export-raw material model of the development of the Russian economy, and on the other hand, the measures for some threats have a direct opposite effect on others. Thus, sterilization of excessive monetary liquidity, reducing the monetary proposal, reduces inflation, but at the same time strengthens the ruble. The same mutually exclusive influence provides for inflation and strengthening the ruble of the intervention of the Central Bank of Russia in the foreign exchange market. Walking currency, the Central Bank regulates the pace of falling the dollar and the growth of the ruble, but emitting for this operation rubles, the Central Bank increases the money supply, which increases inflation.
Thus, the objectively arises of the target dilemma: either inflation, or the ruble exchange rate. Universal recommendations do not exist about solving this dilemma. Each state, based on the specifics of its situation, should flexibly maneuver between macroeconomic risks. To comply with the challenges of the fast-paced world, Russia should transform an export-raw material growth model as soon as possible to innovative.
Inflation (from lat. Inflation - bloating, swelling) - increasing the overall level of prices for goods and services accompanied by a corresponding reduction in the purchasing power of money (depreciation of money) and leading to redistribution national income Between the sectors of the economy, commercial structures, population groups, state and business entities.
Inflation is a continuous increase in the average price of the economy, the depreciation of the money due to the fact that there are more of them in the economy than necessary, that is, the money supply in circulation "swells."
More severe definition of inflation that takes into account the reasons and some consequences of the average price increase in the economy, it sounds like this: inflation - the imbalance of supply and demand (the form of a common balance in the economy), manifested in price increases and in the depreciation of money.
Inflation is one and most serious macroeconomic problems. how economic phenomenon Inflation appeared almost with the emergence of money, with the functioning of which it is directly connected.
Inflation is characteristic of any models economic Developmentwhere government revenues and expenses are not balanced, the possibilities of the Central Bank are limited in conducting independent monetary policy.
Not any price increase serves as an indicator of inflation. Prices can increase due to improving product quality, deterioration of fuel mining conditions raw Resources, Changes in social needs. But it will, as a rule, is not inflation, but to a certain extent logical, justified price increase for individual goods.
Inflation is a multilateral and complex phenomenon, the causes of which are in the interaction of the factors of the monetary circulation and production sector. Externally, inflation looks like a depreciation of funds due to their excessive emission (increase in money supply), which is accompanied by the increase in prices for all economic benefits. However, this is only one of the forms of manifestation of inflation, but not its reason and the deep essence is not at all.
Therefore, inflation should be considered from several positions:
- as a violation of the laws of money circulation, which causes a disorder of the state credit and monetary system;
- as a clear or hidden rise in prices;
- Naturalization of exchange processes (barter transactions);
- Reducing the living level of the population.
Causes of inflation
Inflation is caused by monetary, structural and external causes. Monetarism believes that inflation is caused mainly by money factors, that is financial Policy states.
Monetary reasons:
- inconsistency of cash supply and commodity mass, when the demand for goods and services exceeds the size of the turnover;
- excess of income over consumer spending;
- Deficity state budget;
- Militarization of the economy or excessive increase in military spending;
- Excessive investment - the volume of investments exceeds the possibility of the economy;
- the growth rate of money circulation;
- leading wage growth compared to the growth of production and increase productivity.
Structural reasons:
- deformation of the national economic structure, expressed in the lag of the development of the sectors of the consumer sector;
- reduction in the effectiveness of capital investment and consumption growth;
- Monopoly of the state for foreign trade;
- Imperfection of the system of management of the economy.
External reasons:
- world crises (raw material, energy, food, environmental), which are accompanied by a multiple increase in prices for raw materials, oil, and so on;
- exchange of national currency banks for foreign, which causes the need for additional emissions of paper money;
- reduction of income from foreign trade;
- Negative balance of foreign trade balance.
Inflation can be caused by adaptive inflationary expectations associated with the effects of political instability, with the activities of the media, loss of confidence in the government. Against the background of large inflationary expectations and growth rates foreign currency The population prefers to keep its savings not in national currency.
Inflation may be provoked by the state's tax policy. In terms of inflation, the formation of budget revenues occurs on an inflationary basis - in the decline of production, profit is formed mainly due to rising prices, and not by creating real material values. If the budget is withdrawn by most of the profit of the economy, then the trend of tax evasion increases, the possibilities of investment activity are reduced. With the fall in production, the value added tax only exacerbates inflation, it directly affects the increase in prices.
Inflation affect trade union unions that do not give market mechanism Set the level of wages worthy for the economy.
Also on inflation affects large monopolists who are able to determine the price level of their goods. This is often representatives of the commodity industry.
The deep reasons for inflation are both in the sphere of circulation and in the field of production and are very often conditioned by economic and political relations in the country.
Types of inflation
Depending on the criteria allocate different types inflation. If the criterion is the pace (level) of inflation, then the following types are distinguished: moderate, galloping, high and hyperinflation.
Moderate inflation is measured by percentages per year, and its level is 3-5% (up to 10%). Such a rapid growth rate is observed in many countries of the West. This type of inflation is not accompanied by crisis shocks. Moderate inflation stimulates demand, contributes to the expansion of production and investment. She became the usual element of the market economy.
Permissible tempo of moderate inflation of unequal for different countries. For example, for Switzerland, it should not go beyond 1%; For Greece, the stable development of the economy is achieved within 8 - 10% increase in prices.
Galoping inflation - prices grow quickly, rising over the year by 10 - 100%. At the same time, the turnover is reduced, the production decline occurs, the investment is reduced and capital outflows are observed from the sphere of production in the sphere of circulation. This type of inflation is difficult to manage, when it is often held cash reformsand population invests money in material values. All this indicates a sick economy leading to stagnation, that is, to economic crisis. Galoping inflation is considered serious economic problem For developed countries.
High inflation is measured by interest per month and may amount to 200 - 300 or more percent per year, which is observed in many developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The well-being of even secured sectors of society and normal economic relations are destroyed. This type of inflation and requires emergency measures. As a result of high inflation, the real amount of national production is reduced, unemployment increases, enterprises are closed and bankruptcy occurs.
With high inflation, money starts to lose their value, and economic agents strive to translate them into commodity values, there is an intensive indexation of income, contract prices, grow speculative trends and inflationary expectations.
Hyperinflation, measured by interest per week and even a day, the level of which is 40-50% per month or more than 1000% per year. The classical examples of hyperinflation are the situation in Germany in January 1922 - December 1924, when the growth rate of the price level was 1012 and in Hungary (August 1945 - July 1946), where the price level for the year increased in more than 2,300 times with average monthly growth in 198 time.
Depending on the nature of the manifestation, the following types of inflation distinguish:
1. Open - positive price increase in the conditions of free, unregulated prices.
2. Depressed (closed) - strengthening of the commodity deficit, in hard state control for prices. This type of inflation takes place when prices establishes the state, and at the level below, the equilibrium market (established in the ratio of supply and supply in the commodity market). The main form of manifestation of depressed inflation is a shortage of goods.
From the point of view of production factors, there are the following types of inflation: supply inflation and suggestions (costs).
The demand inflation is caused by a factor in the excess of demand over the proposal that accelerates the rise in prices. Increase prices with unchanged costs ensures the growth of profit and cash income employees. This determines the next round of raising demand, etc.
Demand inflation is determined by the "swelling" of the money supply. The main cause of its "swelling" is the growth of military spending, when the economy is focused on significant costs of weapons and for this reason the state increases the budget deficit, covered with the help of emission, is essentially not secured by commodity resources of money.
At the initial stage of accumulation of excessive money supply, the increase in production and sales, the decrease in unemployment, prices and in the end - the establishment of equilibrium is stimulated. Therefore, it is concluded that minimum sizes Inflation is even useful, as it guarantees from the crisis of overproduction and reduce employment. Subsequently, when full-time employment applies to all areas of the economy and they can no longer respond to an increase in demand for additional supply, price increases. Then the factors causing the decline of production, reducing its effectiveness and aggravation of inflation begin to operate.
In the inflation of demand in the payment turnover, there is a certain "canopy" of excessive money compared with a limited proposal, which causes price increase and money impairment.
Inflation of the supply (costs) - due to the growth of production costs (due to wage growth and due to the increase in prices for raw materials and energy), which causes rise to prices for goods and services and, as a result, leads to a reduction in production and employment, i.e. to the decline and further reduction in costs.
The inflation of the proposal is usually considered from the costs of rising prices under the influence of increasing costs of production, primarily the increase in wage costs. Rising goods reduces population income, and wage indexing is required. Its increase leads to an increase in costs of production, reducing profits, production volumes of existing prices. The desire to keep the profit makes manufacturers raise prices. Inflationary spiral arises: the increase in prices requires an increase in salary, an increase in salary entails an increase in prices - the theory of "inflationary spiral" wages and prices.
Inflation proposals may only be in the event that costs are incremented by a unit of products and in connection with this prices are raised. However, wages are only one of the elements of the price and, as a rule, the production of goods is becoming more expensive by increasing the cost of acquiring raw materials, energy carriers, payment for transport services. Raising material costs Around the world - a natural process due to the increase in the cost of production, transportation of raw materials and energy resources, and this will always affect the growth of production costs. Opposing factor is the use of newest technologieswhich reduces the cost of a unit of products.
Wage growth causes an increase in production costs and, accordingly, price increases, if it occurs simultaneous increase in the main branches of the economy outside the relationship with an increase in labor productivity. In real life, the growth of wages across the state is always significantly lagging behind the increase in prices and complete compensation is never carried out.
In case of supply inflation, the amount of money, taking into account the speed of their appeal, is "tightened" to the increased level of prices caused by the impact of non-cash factors by the production and supply of goods. If the mass of money is not quickly adapted to the increased level of prices, problems begin money turnover - a deficit of payment funds, non-payment, and after this and a decline, stopping production, reduction of the marketable mass.
According to the degree of price increases in various product groups, the following types of inflation distinguish:
1. Balanced - the prices of various goods relative to each other remain unchanged;
2. Unbalanced - the prices of various goods in relation to each other are constantly changing.
According to the criterion, the relationship of economic agents to inflation can be divided into two types:
1. Unexpected inflation - inflation with sudden prices of prices, which are due to the influence of the inflationary expectations of supply of goods producers on the means of production and raw materials, and the population is to consumer goods.
2. Expected inflation - gradual, moderate inflation, which is subjected to a forecast for a certain period. Often, such inflation is the result of anti-inflationary actions by the state.
Other types of inflation can be attributed:
1. Imported inflation - develops under the action of factors having a foreign economic nature (increase in prices for imported goods, excessive influx into a foreign currency country).
2. Stagflation - This type of inflation is accompanied by an increase in the level of unemployment and prices, and at the same time stagnation of production.
Inflation is used in order to redistribute national income and public wealth in favor of the initiator of the inflationary process, which in the overwhelming majority is the currency emission center. At the same time, if the issuance of the national currency occurs due to the purchase of a foreign currency by the central bank, there is a transnational redistribution of public wealth.
Inflation models
The Caigan hyperinflation model is based on the dependence of the actual demand for money only from inflation expectations that are formed adaptively. At low values \u200b\u200bof the speed of adaptation of the expectations and small elasticity of demand for money on inflationary expectations, this model describes the actual equilibrium situation when inflation is equal to the rate of growth of the money supply (which is consistent with the quantitative theory of money). However, at high values \u200b\u200bof the specified parameters, the model leads to unmanaged hyperinflation, despite permanent temp Cash growth. It follows from this that in such conditions to reduce the level of inflation, measures are required to reduce the inflationary expectations of economic agents.
The Friedman model comes from real demand for money as the functions of real income and expected inflation, and expectations are assumed to be extremely rational, that is, equal actual inflation. For this model, it is possible to determine the level of inflation, in which the real degree of maximum is t. N. Optimal inflation. All other things being equal, this level of inflation is the lower than the higher the rate of economic growth. If the actual inflation is higher than "optimal", then additional emission of money will only accelerate inflation and can lead to a negative real sinage. The emission of money is possible if actual inflation is lower than "optimal".
The Bruno - Fisher model takes into account the dependence of demand for money not only from inflation expectations, but also from GDP, more precisely, the same function is used as in the Cage model, but for the specific (per unit of GDP) demand for money. Thus, in this model, in addition to the growth rate of the money supply, the GDP growth rate appears (permanent). In addition, the model introduces a budget deficit and analyzes the influence of budget deficit and methods of its financing (net emission of money or mixed financing at the expense of emissions and borrowing) on \u200b\u200binflation dynamics. Thus, the model allows you to deepen the analysis of the effects of monetary policy.
The Sarjent - Wallace model takes into account the possibility of emission and debt financing budget deficit, but it comes from the fact that the possibility of increasing debt is limited by the demand for government bonds. The interest rate exceeds the growth rate of the release, therefore, from a certain moment, the financing of the deficiency becomes possible only due to the sense of the sense, which means an increase in the growth rate of money and inflation. The model comes from the fact that monetary policy is not able to influence the growth rate of the real release and the real interest rate. The main conclusion of the model, which seems at first paradoxical opinion, is that the deterrent monetary policy today inevitably leads to an increase in price level tomorrow and, moreover, it can lead to an increase in current inflation. Such a conclusion follows from the fact that economic agents expect the government in the future should move from debt financing for the emission, and the low growth rate of the money supply today means a high pace in the future, which will cause inflation. Waiting for inflation in the future can cause inflation already in the present, despite the restraining credit Policy. Thus, inflation during debt financing may be even greater than with emission. The only reliable means becomes the achievement of the budget surplus.
Methods for measuring inflation
Inflation is measured using the price index. There are various methods for calculating this index: consumer price index, manufacturer price index, index deflator GDP. These indexes differ in the composition of the goods included in the estimated set, or a basket. In order to calculate the price index, you need to know the cost of the market basket in this (current) year and its value in the base year (year taken per point of reference).
In Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service publishes the official consumer price indices that characterize the level of inflation. In addition, these indices are used as correction coefficients, for example, when calculating the amount of compensation, damage and the like.
The most controversial point is the composition of the consumer basket, both in fullness and variable. The basket can focus on the real consumption structure. Then over time she must change. But any change in the basket makes incomparable previous data with current. Inflation index is distorted. On the other hand, if you do not change the basket, after a while it will cease to correspond to the real structure of consumption.
The uneven rise in prices for different types of products complicates the process of obtaining a correct assessment of the economic situation in the country. To figure out what inflation is, its presence or absence, the price indexes will help estimate the depth of this phenomenon - these are relative indicators, they are called upon to relate the level of prices over time.
1. Price ratio to the base period. This method received the name of the consumer price index.
2. Significantly ahead of the preceding method for calculating inflation by the manufacturer price index. It shows the cost of all the production of the country without taking into account additional cost and taxes.
3. It also clearly shows that such inflation and what is its level in the country, the control of excess of costs over revenues. This method received the name of the accommodation cost index.
4. Study and analysis of price increases for assets. This manufacturer's assets index demonstrates the direct influence of inflation to enrich their owners. This is due to ahead of the rise in prices for the assets of consumer demand and cash value.
5. The GDP deflator (GDP Deflator) is calculated as a change in the price of the groups of the same goods.
6. Parity of the purchasing power of national currency and changes in currencies.
Consequences of inflation
As any multifactorical economic process, inflation has a number of consequences. It is negative effectively reflected on economic Life Countries: economic relations are destroyed, the investment process is disorganized, imbalances and chaos in the economy increase. Moreover, capital capital overflow in the sphere of circulation, mainly in speculative commercial structures, where they bring huge profits, or move abroad in search of even greater profits. In the period of inflation in the country, corruption, shadow economy and speculation always flourish.
Consequences of inflation:
- reduction of real incomes of the population (with uneven growth of nominal income);
- depreciation of savings;
- deterioration of living conditions mainly among representatives of social groups with solid incomes (pensioners, employees, students whose incomes are formed at the expense of the state budget);
- Redistribution of income between population groups, production areas, regions, business structures, firms and state;
- Inflation is forced to spend money right away, which strengthens the demand for goods;
- Entrepreneurial activity is reduced, because Inflation does not allow to calculate the prices for the future and determine income from business activities;
- loss from manufacturers of interest in the creation of quality products (the production of low-quality goods increases, the production of relatively cheap goods is reduced);
- reduced volumes of lending and investment in the economy, production decreases, unemployment is growing;
- strengthening of imbalances between the production of industrial and agricultural products;
- enterprises with a long production cycle are stopped;
- impaired money is badly fulfilling their role, the dollar displaces the ruble, as a result, undermined monetary system countries;
- destabilization of foreign economic activity - the export of raw materials, import imports, increases the burden of debt;
- Stimulates the development of the "shadow" economy.
Anti-inflation policy
Anti-inflation policy is a set of state measures to limit inflation by regulating monetary and other areas of the economy. It causes reducing government spending; inhibits price increases; Holds cumulative demand.
Inflation regulation is carried out through specific measures of species of macroeconomic policies that allow you to weaken the effect of intelligent factors.
Regulatory methods:
- credit stimulation (change in the account, change in interest rate long-term loans, change the norm of mandatory reserves, buying securities on the open market);
- monetary stimulation (expanding banknote and check emissions, weakening restrictions on the growth of money supply).
Types of anti-inflation policy:
1. Deflation policy - it is carried out through credit and monetary detection of demand, strengthening the tax press. The peculiarity of this policy is that it causes a slowdown in economic growth and at the same time crisis phenomena grow in the economy, there is a decline in production, unemployment growth, a fall in life level.
2. The income policy is aimed at freezing wages, determining the limits of its growth, limits the demand, prices for products.
Types of income policies:
1. Politics " expensive money"Is aimed at increasing interest rates, strengthening the tax burden, reducing government spending.
2. The policy of tax stimulation is direct stimulation by reducing taxes and indirect stimulation, which increases population savings when tax reducing individuals.
3. The policy of slowing the speed of appeal is to invest in the economy.
Monetary policy involves the use of the following tools:
- revaluation, which leads to a decrease in import prices, and increases prices, export, holding back price increases in the country;
- restriction of the inflow of short-term capital due to the border, which holds back the expansion of the deposit base and, accordingly reduces the monetary proposal within the country.
