The level of prices for goods and services is always of interest to Russians, because only very rich people can afford not to monitor the cost of clothes, food, utilities and the like. Ordinary citizens, faced with new numbers on the price tags, are forced to revise their budget, weighing income against expenses. In the context of the protracted crisis, deflator indices are becoming an important measure of Russia's well-being, because they allow experts to judge the real level of income of citizens.
The recent, tax maneuver in the oil sector and the rapid one will no doubt negatively affect the performance of the retail market. All these factors will have an impact not only on the goods of the consumer group, but also on the cost of fuel, electricity and cargo transportation at enterprises, and this will lead to an increase in the cost of all types of services and goods - from the already mentioned food products to real estate.
The deflator index will show what the purchasing power of the ruble will be
Forecasting price dynamics is an important stage in planning, therefore, experts necessarily calculate deflator indices. Ordinary citizens are also interested in this forecast - it will allow them to draw up a purchase plan, especially when it comes to large acquisitions. Let's figure out together what this price indicator can become in 2019!
What are deflator indexes?
Speaking simple language deflator index is a coefficient used to determine the final price of a certain set of goods and services. These indicators need to be calculated for a couple of years in advance, since this allows the Ministry of Economic Development to develop measures to improve social and economic life Russians, as well as think over measures to contain negative financial processes... Thus, deflator indices are the basis for forecasting prices for the next year.
In fact, economists compare the price indicators for product groups in the current time period with the baseline prices. Talking about economic content of this indicator, then it resembles the consumer price index - only the deflator is calculated not just for individual consumer goods, but for the full set of products from the commodity and service sectors, including those that have not been presented on the market before.
Having understood the specifics of calculating this indicator, one can notice its main drawback - deflators reflect the economic situation in such a way that the value of inflation is underestimated. According to independent experts, this is precisely why economists of government departments are actively using deflators - after all, they need to show that life in country goes on the way.
After deflator indices have been determined, specialists combine the calculations into a single forecast, taking into account the medium and long term. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development publishes probable scenarios that take into account not only the manifestation of certain internal factors, but also the conditions of external markets. This helps the country's leadership to choose goals, the achievement of which will improve the standard of living in the state, as well as to develop scenarios for their implementation, taking into account the positive and negative prognosis.
Scenarios of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019
The Ministry of Economic Development uses the deflator index when making forecasts The forecast assumes the implementation of one of 3 scenarios. In Russia they are known as:
- “Basic” (if conditions close to the current ones remain in the economy of the Russian Federation);
- “Conservative” (takes into account the likelihood of deterioration in current conditions);
- “Target” (based on the assumption that conditions in the domestic and foreign markets will be optimal for Russia).
The forecasts take into account that: a) Russia will continue to be influenced by sanctions from Western European states and the United States; b) the government of the Russian Federation is implementing a set of counter-sanctions measures; c) the international economy is gradually stabilizing, and global crises and shock situations will bypass the world community. In this case:
- The central bank will be able to implement targeting measures, fixing them at 4%;
- Urals crude oil prices will stop at $ 40 per barrel;
- interventions in the currency market, the volume of which will be equal to the income from oil and gas exports, will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.
Scenario # 1: basic
This forecast is based on the following assumptions:
- the external economic situation will allow maintaining the growth of the world economy at the level of 2.8%. Developed countries are expected to exhaust their growth opportunities and face the consequences of unfavorable demographics, while the Chinese economy will show slower dynamics due to heavy debt burden. In turn, developing countries will slow down their growth rates due to falling prices for a commodity group;
- demand for energy will rise. Black gold prices will remain at stable level due to the prolongation of agreements on the reduction of oil production, although they will be under pressure from the increase in shale oil production in the United States;
- Russian oil exports will increase, as world prices will turn out to be more attractive than domestic prices;
- investments will grow at an outstripping pace due to the implementation of the federal program of concessional loans for representatives of small and medium-sized businesses;
- Russia's economic growth will support the implementation of the Labor Productivity and Digital Economy programs. As a result, not only labor productivity will increase, but also the number of jobs will increase, new products of import substitution will appear;
- the main driver of economic growth will be the manufacturing industry (i.e. chemical, food and light industries).
Taking into account the above theses, such changes in the economy of the Russian Federation are possible:
- the unemployment rate will fall to 4.7%;
- real ones will increase by 1.3-1.5%, which will have a positive effect on the market consumer loans and growing demand.
Scenario # 2: target
Target calculations are based on the same set of assumptions as the base case economic development, however, his calculations include additional positive factors:
- Rosstat data (presumably, already in 2019 the demographic situation of the Russian Federation will be improved due to an increase in the birth rate and migration growth);
- the flow of investments will increase due to the growth of oil production (it will be ensured by the commissioning of new wells and the modernization of technologies);
- will strengthen and amount to 67 rubles 40 kopecks per US dollar;
- GDP dynamics will be positive (3.1% per year).
According to the target scenario, the growth of oil production will significantly strengthen the position of the Russian Federation Scenario # 3: conservative
This version of the forecast assumes that financial system The Russian Federation will suffer from a number of crisis phenomena:
- the main factor negatively affecting economic growth is called "hard landing" Chinese economy... The reason may be negative trends in the markets of a financial and non-financial nature;
- developed countries can tighten their monetary policy;
- world demand for oil resources will decrease, due to which quotations will fall to $ 35 per barrel;
- the rate of the national currency in such conditions can reach 70.3 rubles. per US dollar;
- the pace GDP growth will decrease to 0.8% per year;
- inflation indicators will reach 4.3%.
Forecast values of deflator indices for 2019
According to the most expected scenario (which, however, has not yet been adjusted to take into account tax and social innovations - such as raising the retirement age, a fiscal maneuver in oil industry and an increase in the excise tax on fuel in 2019), the Ministry of Economic Development expects the following figures:
- estimated price index for consumer goods - 104.4;
- the estimated price index for goods for the industrial sector - 104.1;
- coefficient characterizing the wholesale gas price - 103.8;
- indicator for wholesale prices for fuel oil - 102.1;
- coal price deflator index - 103.9;
- coefficient for the retail price of electricity - 109.1;
- index calculated for the cost of heat and water supply - 105.1;
- the indicator for freight traffic on Russian Railways is 105.2.
Central Bank of Russia forecast
Experts from the main bank Russian Federation say that oil prices, according to their calculations, in 2019 will grow much more than it is predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Elvira Nabiullina, who is the head of the department, average price black gold will reach 55 USD. per barrel. And since the ruble exchange rate has become less dependent on oil quotations, the scale of the influence of this factor on a number of consumer prices will noticeably decrease.
Despite new economic solutions in the field of social and economic policy (raising the VAT to 20%, raising the retirement age to 63 for Russians and 65 for Russians), the Central Bank promises that inflation will not exceed 4%. However, Nabiullina noted that latest news negatively affected inflationary expectations of ordinary Russians - according to polls, now the country is expecting a rise in prices up to 7.8% per year.
Independent experts' predictions for 2019
Independent experts believe that the joy of the authorities is premature: due to economic innovations, prices for all types of goods and services will begin to rise It should be noted that non-governmental experts belong to financial prospects 2019 with less optimism. Analysts believe that the government will not keep inflation at this level. 4% is an unattainable figure, and it will be good if in 2019 financial injections and tight monetary policy will fix the purchasing power of the ruble at least at 4.5%. Interested in details? Then check out the forecasts from different spheres of the economic life of the Russian Federation!
- Experts are confident that the increase in VAT will hit the business environment hard. First, an increase in the base VAT will negatively affect the cost of excisable goods (gasoline, alcohol, tobacco products). Secondly, in Russia today there is already a dizzying jump in prices for the fuel group of goods - in the last few months alone, diesel fuel reached the level of 40.5 rubles, 92nd gasoline - 38.7 rubles, 95th gasoline - 41.96 rubles. Thus, for the period from May to June, fuel prices increased by 7-8%. At the same time, the government has so far abandoned plans to increase the excise tax, but as soon as it is increased again (and this is planned for 2019), the price of fuel will be at least 50 rubles / liter. Naturally, such a jump will surely affect the prices of foodstuffs, household goods and transport services, because sowing and harvesting crops, transporting goods and passengers are impossible without refueling vehicles and agricultural equipment.
- One more important point- the reaction of the real estate market. There is an opinion that in 2019 you need to be prepared for a sharp surge in prices for. New VAT and the price of fuel will have a negative impact on the cost of construction services and materials (fittings, bricks, concrete, elevators, finishing materials, construction equipment, etc.), services for the transportation of goods and the work of construction equipment. New rate VAT will make prices 3-4% higher than the current ones, and if we add here the cost of gasoline and the planned inflation, then we can expect an increase of 5-7%. At the current price square meters- these are huge sums for ordinary Russians.
- Do not forget that the country's Reserve Fund was devastated. Of course, the Ministry of Economic Development specifically forecasts low oil prices in order to replenish the Fund at the expense of the difference between planned and actual oil quotations, but experts believe that this will not be enough. Moreover, the government has announced the next increase in pensions and minimum wages. It will be possible to implement such social initiatives only through additional emission of money - and this, obviously, will lead to the devaluation of the national currency.
- The increase in VAT may reduce the activity of businessmen. Experts warn that the budget filling (which depends on VAT by 34%) will not only not increase, but will even fall. Entrepreneurs will go into the shadows en masse to cope with the pressure of rising prices.
- Automotive market experts are also sounding the alarm. According to some assumptions, the price of this group of goods will grow by 10-14% in 2019, while pessimistic forecasts speak of a 20% increase. At the same time, the calculations were made on the basis of only two factors - the ruble exchange rate and the growth of the collection for recycling.
- Operators of the tourism sector also announced potential price increases. The cost of tours can increase by 15-20% - even taking into account the fact that domestic transportations enjoy a preferential VAT rate.
- Whatever the Central Bank says that the ruble is less and less dependent on oil prices, experts believe otherwise. Analysts warn: do not naively assume that the price of oil will rise in the long term. By the end of 2018, OPEC countries may reconsider their attitude to restrictions on oil production, and the United States will once again increase the production of shale deposits. In this case, the price will fall quite significantly. The Russian government should abandon populist measures and start replenishing the treasury using exclusively fiscal methods. Funds should be directed to structural modernization, reducing the country's dependence on oil exports.
There are several indicators for measuring inflation, and the most common is the consumer price index, the data on which are provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is calculated as a percentage and reflects the change in the average final price of the basic consumer basket over a certain period of time. The second, the so-called “gross domestic product deflator,” which determines the annual price change for all goods and services taken into account in calculating GDP, has a number of drawbacks, for example, it does not take into account imported goods.
Advantages and Disadvantages of the Consumer Price Index
The undoubted advantage of the CPI is its ability to cover the most popular goods, including imported ones. On the other hand, this indicator has several disadvantages. Any change in the composition of the basic consumer basket makes the data for the past and updated periods incomparable. If you do not make such changes, then the selected basket will gradually lose its relevance.
An even more fundamental problem is the essential definition of the composition of the basic consumer basket. V different countries and even in different regions of the same country, the same goods may have different meanings and significantly different prices. Changing the geographic sampling for the base basket opens up great possibilities for manipulating the indicator. Another feature consumer inflation is that it can be calculated different ways even based on the same sample. For example, the average annual index often differs significantly from the index calculated using the “end of period” method (the last quarter or December of the measured year to the last quarter or December of the previous year).
Considering all of the above, professional economists they are rather skeptical about the officially published data of the consumer price index. The authorities tend to underestimate real level inflation for political reasons, I use methodological and technical nuances of calculating this indicator that are obscure for most people.
Indicator forecast for 2019 in Russia
In the Russian Federation, the consumer price index is calculated by the Ministry of Economic Development and central bank... Their techniques are somewhat different. The Russian government regularly publishes a forecast of the economic situation, including consumer inflation, for the current and next years. This forecast usually contains three possible scenarios. Favorable, unfavorable, etc. “Basic”, based on maintaining current trends.
In the latest (July 2018) forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019, the consumer price index was determined at 4.3% according to the “baseline” scenario and the “end of period” calculation method. The previous forecast was 4.2%. The other two scenarios contain similar numbers. Target, i.e. the inflation rate desired by the government is set at 4%.
The real achievement of these indicators, even according to the official calculation methodology, is a difficult task. The majority of the country's population expects prices to rise in 2018 and 2019 at the level of 7-8% and even more. Among the factors driving inflation in Russia are:
- increase in value added tax (VAT);
- possible introduction of sales tax in addition to VAT;
- creeping rise in prices for energy and fuel. Indirectly, this leads to an increase in the cost of almost all goods and services (transport, housing and communal services, etc.);
- issue of additional money supply to cover the state budget deficit;
- rise in prices for imported goods due to the gradual devaluation of the ruble. The latter is associated with the continuing outflow of capital from the country, which, in turn, is conditioned by the political situation.
However, the main risk for the Russian economy in general and consumer inflation in particular in 2019 remains dependence on the conjuncture of world oil prices. Currently, they remain at a fairly high level, but are subject to sharp and sudden fluctuations. A significant drop in oil prices could lead to dire consequences. Among them, the shock devaluation of the ruble against major world currencies, an explosive rise in prices for imported goods, an increase in tariffs natural monopolies, the increasing emission of unsecured money to cover government spending, and a significant increase in a variety of taxes and fees.
The Ministry of Economic Development has clarified the wording of the inflation forecast for 2019 - from 4.3% to 5%.
The deflator index is a coefficient that reflects the change in consumer prices for goods, works and services when recalculating the current value in constant prices... We will tell you how to calculate the deflator, how to use it in public procurement and what are the forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020.
What is meant by the coefficient-deflator
Price index and deflator are identical concepts that are used by specialists to calculate the final cost of goods, works or services. Deflator is a value used to recalculate current economic indicators at constant prices.
This is a coefficient that is set annually and is calculated for several periods in advance, being the basis for state forecasting of economic development in future periods. For example, the 2020-2020 deflator index was predicted back in 2017. A deflator is essential when calculating key macroeconomic indicators- gross domestic and national product (GDP and GNP), accumulation fund, consumer price index (CPI), dynamics of physical volume of consumption and many others.
Sectoral indices are calculated by specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development, taking into account the price level for goods, works and services recorded in the previous period. The coefficient is set annually and fixed administrative documents ministries. Thus, the indicator for 2020 was determined by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade No. 579 dated October 30, 2017, and the official deflator index for 2020 by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Order has not yet been published, but is expected in the near future.
The procedure and methodology for calculating the coefficient is regulated regulations Government of the Russian Federation - the rules for calculating forecast values are specified in the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1234 dated November 14, 2015, as well as in the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated June 1, 2018 No. 276, which fixes the rules for the use of value indices and deflators by type economic activity(in the implementation of the state defense order).
To find out the deflator index, the formula is the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP multiplied by 100.
In turn, the GDP deflator index (calculation formula) is the following mathematical calculation: the value of the GDP basket in current prices/ the value of the GDP basket in prices of the base year × 100%.
Since in the formula, when calculating the coefficient, data on all goods, works and services produced in the country are used, the calculated deflator value reflects the real dynamics of the price level in the economy. When calculating the index, price movements are also taken into account, taking into account changes in the country's production structure, actual volumes of TRU output in physical terms and other indicators recorded in reporting period.
The Paasche aggregate index is calculated as follows:
By calculating the value of the Paasche price index, you can analyze the change in price indicators for goods, works and services of the reporting period. compared to basic prices for similar product categories sold in the reporting period. Thus, the Paasche coefficient illustrates the degree of rise in price or, conversely, decrease in the cost of manufactured products.
With the help of the GDP deflator, calculated according to the Paasche formula, it is possible to track the inflation rate. In case if calculated value more than 1 (or more than 100%, if the calculation is in percent), then inflation in the country has increased, if the calculated indicator is below 1 (or 100%), then the inflation rate has decreased.
Deflator in 2020 - projected values
The Ministry of Economic Development has not yet officially published the deflator index for 2020-2021, but the forecast values in various production areas have already been presented. At the same time, the indicated values of the coefficient for future periods will still be adjusted by the specialists of the ministry, taking into account the events that occurred during recent times economic changes and social reforms such as pension (raising the retirement age) and tax (raising excise taxes on fuel).
The upcoming events will directly affect the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020. But when developing the budget and planning procurement activities for the next year and planning periods, the customer organizations can use the already existing values of the coefficient calculated by the specialists of the ministry.
Let us present the calculated consumer price index, which characterizes the inflation rate, and the deflator indices for 2020-2021 in the table.
| Industries | 2018 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production, transmission and distribution of electricity, gas, steam and hot water | 109,0 | 107,1 | 106,7 | 106,7 |
| Mining | 108,7 | 106,5 | 106,0 | 106,2 |
| Manufacturing industries | 106,8 | 105,4 | 105,1 | 105,0 |
| Industry | 107,6 | 105,9 | 105,3 | 105,5 |
| Construction | 106,8 | 105,9 | 105,2 | 104,9 |
| Agriculture | 105,3 | 104,2 | 103,9 | 103,8 |
| Freight transport | 107,0 | 106,0 | 105,7 | 105,6 |
| Fixed capital investments (capital investments) | 106,9 | 105,5 | 105,! | 104,8 |
| Turnover retail | 104,9 | 103,9 | 103,5 | 103,7 |
| Paid services to the population | 106,9 | 106,2 | 105,6 | 105,7 |
| Inflation (CPI), annual average | 104,7 | 104,4 | 104,2 | 104,1 |
The index for consumer goods is planned at 104.2. Electricity retail prices will be indexed by 109.1.
Also on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development there are indices that will be used in 2020 for tax purposes:
- UTII - 1.915;
- USN - 1.581;
- Personal income tax - 1, 729;
- property tax individuals — 1,518;
- patent - 1,518;
- trading fees - 1.317.
Thus, in many industrial and manufacturing sectors, there is a gradual decrease in the ratio. So, after calculating the deflator index for 2020 (Ministry of Economic Development), construction and construction works will be calculated with a coefficient lower than in the current 2020.
Deflator in purchases under 44-FZ
When implementing public procurement within the framework of the 44-FZ law, indices are used in the calculation and justification of the NMCK (Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development No. D28i-1688 of 22.06.2016). The customer calculates the initial (maximum) contract price in accordance with the provisions of Art. 22 44-FZ.
When justifying the NMCC, calculated using the market analysis method, it is necessary to use the annual deflator coefficients, since, in accordance with Part 3 of Art. 22 44-FZ, information on the cost of goods, works, services should be analyzed taking into account price and commercial offers comparable to the base period.
When planning the procurement budget for 2020 and subsequent periods and justifying the NMCC, an industry deflator is applied in accordance with the Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2024. This document contains the forecast indicators of the index by type of economic activity both for the next year and for the planning period 2020-2024.
Deflator use in procurement of construction works
Indices are also used by customers when determining the initial (maximum) price based on the design and estimate method (part 9 of article 22 44-FZ) when making purchases for construction, reconstruction, overhaul(Letter of the Ministry of Finance No. 24-01-10 / 72553 dated 03.11.2017). The deflator index for 2020 for estimates is also indicated in the socio-economic forecast. At the moment, the ratio is 105.0.
When concluding a construction contract with a single supplier, the customer organization must also calculate the cost of the contract on the basis of Part 9 of Art. 22 44-FZ - by design and estimate method.
Regardless of whether the customer enters into a contract with a single supplier or tenders, the NMCC (contract price) is calculated by the specialist in charge of the institution for procurement, taking into account Methodical recommendations approved by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 567 dated 02.10.2013.
Pricing and estimated rationing in the field of urban planning activities are regulated by the provisions of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, namely, Article 8.3. Deflator coefficients are used to calculate the estimated cost of an object by years of implementation (as part of a federal investment project). The NMCK is determined in accordance with the calculated estimate of construction work (Article 22), while the calculation takes into account the basic version of the index from the socio-economic forecast.
In the event that construction is carried out using federal budget funds provided for under the federal targeted investment program, then when determining the NMCK, it is recommended to set the size of the initial (maximum) price within the volume allocated by the main manager capital investments for the implementation of such an investment project (clause 6.3 of the Methodological Recommendations, approved by the Government of the Russian Federation No. 427 of 05/18/2009).
At the same time, if, based on the results of checking the reliability of determining the estimated cost of such objects, the estimate for the years of construction, calculated in prices of the corresponding years using deflators, does not exceed the volume of allocated capital investments, then the NMCC for construction work is formed on the basis of the indicated estimated cost (clause 6.4 of the Methodological Recommendations ).
The deflator index for 2020 in construction should also be applied when calculating the cost of design work (clause 1.7 Methodical instructions) for correct planning of future capital investments.
Deflator in purchases under 223-FZ
Deflators under 223-FZ can be used for the following purposes: if the value of the contract has been adjusted due to the rise in prices (inflation) in accordance with the forecast indicators of the coefficient, then this is the basis for a change essential conditions contract. At the same time, the contracting organization is obliged to prescribe such a possibility in its procurement regulations. See an example of such a procurement clause below.
The use of the deflator index in the state defense order
The index is also used in the implementation of the state defense order. In the process of planning the budget for the state defense order for future periods, the formation of prices for products, as well as for calculating and justifying the NMC, sectoral deflator coefficients are used. Deflators in the state defense order in 2020 are standardized by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 276 of 06/01/2018.
The key aspects of using the index in the field of state defense orders are:
- Determination of the forecast price, the price of the state contract when conducting purchases under the state defense order from a single supplier.
- Formation of the forecast price and the NMCK for the implementation of orders under the state defense order.
The application of the coefficient applies to the formation of forecast prices for the development, manufacture, maintenance, repair and disposal of products supplied under the state defense order, as well as goods, works and services included in the lists of products with regulated pricing.
The provisions of the regulatory documents on the state defense order do not apply to the purchase of food products. NMCK for the corresponding state order should be determined in accordance with Art. 22 44-FZ. The priority method for calculating the initial (maximum) price is the market analysis method (part 6 of article 22 44-FZ). Based on Part 3 of Art. 22, to calculate the NMCK using comparable market prices, the state customer needs to use the deflator to bring the data on the prices of goods, works or services to the appropriate values.
Thus, the use of the deflator coefficient is mandatory when justifying the NMCK within the framework of the operation of Law 44-FZ.
Excerpt from "Scenario conditions, the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the maximum levels of prices (tariffs) for services of companies in the infrastructure sector for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019"
... The base case was developed based on the moderate dynamics of Urals oil prices at the level of USD 40 / bbl. in 2016 - 2019.
Against the background of low consumer demand, inflation will slow down to 6.5% in 2016 against 12.9% in 2015, with a further slowdown in its growth to 4% by 2019.
Throughout the entire forecast period, the policy of moderate growth of regulated tariffs in the infrastructure sector, especially for utilities, will continue. The annual increase in the cost of utilities will not exceed this year's inflation.
Gas The gas price is one of the key factors determining the rise in electricity prices, since the share of gas in the final electricity price in the forecast period will be approximately 30% with minor fluctuations from year to year. In 2016, gas price indexation for all categories of consumers will be 2% (in July). In the period 2017 - 2019. wholesale gas prices will be indexed: for all categories of consumers, excluding the population, by 2% annually; for the population - 3% annually. Indexation of tariffs for gas transportation through main gas pipelines will be carried out in the same amounts as for wholesale gas prices.
Power engineering In 2016, the average annual growth of final prices for electricity for all categories of consumers is expected to be 7.5–8.2%, or by about 0.5%, compared to the previous year. point lower than previously predicted, which is due to a decrease in demand from consumers, as well as changes in the structure of consumption in real sector... According to preliminary estimates, in 2017 final prices for electricity in the retail market will grow for all categories of consumers by 7.1% on average per year, in 2018 - by 5.4-5.9%, in 2019 the increase in electricity prices will be 5.1-5.6 percent ... The growth of regulated tariffs of grid organizations for consumers other than the population (other) on average in 2017 will amount to 6.3% (indexation in July by 5.0%), in 2018 - 4.5% (4.0%), in 2019 year - 4.0% (4.0 percent). At the same time, the size of tariff indexation for individual grid organizations can be differentiated in order to ensure their break-even. In order to reduce the volume of cross-subsidizing in the power grid complex, the indexation of tariffs of grid organizations for the population will be: in 2017 - 7.0%, in 2018 - 6.0%, in 2019 - 6.0 percent.
In the wholesale market, price increases are forecasted: in 2017 - at the level of 7.5%, in 2018 - 5.5–6.5%, in 2019 - 5.5–6.5 percent. The excess of the growth in prices on the wholesale market of the inflation rate in 2017 was mainly due to the continued commissioning of new capacity under capacity supply agreements.
Housing and utilities The limiting indices of changes in payments by citizens for utilities (excluding services for the removal and disposal of household waste that are part of utilities from 01.01.2017) will be: from July 2017 - 4.8%, from July 2018 - 4.3%, from July 2019 - 4.0 percent. Heat tariffs will be indexed from July 2017 by 4.1%, from July 2018 - by 3.9% and from July 2019 - by 3.7%. Water supply tariffs in this period will be indexed by 6.2%, 6.0% and 4.7%, respectively. The key factors in the change in the cost of utilities are the indexation of gas prices and the rise in electricity prices, which, in turn, are the input costs of heating and water supply organizations.
By the end of 2016, the formation of regulatory framework for a phased transition to a new method of regulating the heat market based on the price cap (alternative boiler house).
Assessing the growth in the well-being of the country's population is not an easy task. Citizens' incomes are growing, but at the same time prices are rising. Which country can boast of higher income growth - Russia, or, say, Switzerland?
To answer this and many other questions, economists and statisticians use the so-called. the consumer price index is one of the most important economic indicators that assesses the level of inflation in a country for a certain period. It is sometimes called that - the inflation index. Using this indicator in calculations, you can find out how much richer or poorer the inhabitants of a particular country or region have actually become over a certain period of time.
Consumer price index for 2018 Rosstat official website
In Russia, the CPI value for years, months and in the regional context is published on the official website of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Currently, statistics have been collected since 1991. These data can be used to assess how the final prices for goods from the consumer basket in the current period differ from the cost of the same goods in an earlier (reference) period.
The growth formula is calculated using what?
CPI (Consumer Price Index, CPI) is calculated as the ratio of the cost of goods and services in billing period to prices for the same goods and services in the base period, taking into account the share of these goods and services in the consumer basket, or by the so-called Laspeyres formula.
Usually, when calculating, the cost of the consumer basket in the annual period is taken as the basic one, for example: in September 2015 - for September 2014, in October 2015 - for October 2014, in November 2015 - for November 2014. , etc. However, depending on the field of application, this indicator can also be calculated to the level of December last year and (for macroeconomic research and long-term planning) to the price level for years and even decades in the past.
The value, to some extent inverse to the CPI, is called the GDP deflator, or the Pasche index (Paasche). It is also used to estimate the rate of inflation and is defined as the ratio of the size of the GDP of the reference period as a percentage of the GDP of the reference period. They are not the same thing. Unlike the inflation index, the deflator is based not on the cost of the consumer basket, but on the GDP as a whole; when calculating the CPI, the cost is taken into account imported goods, but there is no GDP deflator.
In addition, a third approach can also be applied - Fisher's formula, something in between the CPI and the GDP deflator, but now it is rarely used (how the indicator is calculated using this complex formula - Wikipedia will help).
What does it show and what can it be used for?
The indicator calculated using the Laspeyres formula shows how the cost of goods and services included in the consumer basket has changed in relation to the base period. If it is more than one (100%), then there is an increase in prices (inflation), if it is less - a decrease (deflation). So why is this metric needed?
The CPI makes it possible to adjust the final incomes of the population for the period by the general price level and show how much the real incomes of the population have grown or fallen, i.e. we have become richer or poorer, and how much. It affects interest rates and courses on stock market and the bond market, is used by the Ministry of Economic Development for the indexation of public sector wages, pensions and benefits.
The forecasted average annual inflation rate is taken into account when developing the budget for the next year. Labor productivity in the economy is also measured taking into account the dynamics of the price level. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses an inflation forecast to calculate the average annual exchange rate against the ruble, so the CPI has a great impact on forex trading. How does this coefficient affect exchange rates? High inflation indicates low purchasing power ruble, i.e. the higher the projected CPI, the weaker the exchange rate of the national currency today.
Consumer price growth index for 2018 Rosstat official website
The value of the indicator for the Russian Federation in 2017 was 112.9%. Based on reports by regions of the Russian Federation, published Federal Service state statistics on its website, the difference in inflation across regions was negligible.
Thus, in 2017, Moscow showed an increase in the cost of living at the level of 114.1%, in St. Petersburg the index increased compared to the previous year to 113.2%, in the Nizhny Novgorod region - 112.2%, in Rostov - 112.1 %, in Samara - 112.7%, in Chelyabinsk - 112.0%, in Altai Territory - 112.4%, in Krasnodar Territory - 112.7%. The Volgograd region showed an increase of 113.2%, Yaroslavl - 113.9%. The most high inflation recorded in the Republic of Crimea - 27.6%,
In the context of product groups, the indicator also fluctuated slightly last year and amounted to:
- For food products - 114.0%;
- For non-food products - 113.7%;
- For services - 110.2%.
The rise in prices in the first two months of 2017 was 1.6%, which means an average monthly increase of 0.8%, or 9.6% year on year. There are several resources on the Internet that offer a very convenient calculator for calculating the inflation index for different periods.
Basic form: what is taken into account
The consumer basket used by Rosstat to calculate the inflation rate, in contrast to the minimum basket, includes a wide range of goods and services (396 items in total), including such unusual ones as foreign tourist trips and funeral services. The main problem in calculating the indicator is how to determine the basic set of products and services included in the consumer basket. How to calculate the value of an indicator for a product or service that did not exist yesterday? How to apply in the calculations the data that this or that product or service in one social group or region takes up a large share of costs, and in another - a minimum? The inflation index underestimates structural shifts in consumption (substitution effect expensive goods cheap) and ignores variations in the cost of goods depending on their quality, so it is assumed that real inflation is lower than the value of this indicator.
Inflation forecast for 2018
The 2018 Federal Budget Law provides for an inflation rate of 6.4%, and this is at an average cost of a barrel of oil in the region of $ 50. It is already clear that the price of oil will be below this level, and inflation in Russia will be higher, which will affect the consumer price index. Representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believe that this figure by the end of the year will be around 7 percent.
Since the beginning of the year, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukaev has already named different numbers, and based on the latest statements, the department expects a price increase in 2018 of less than 8%. The UN measures the possible rise in the cost of living in Russia at the level of 10.5%. The actual value is likely to be in the region of the average of these forecasts.
Consumer price indices for 2018 Rosstat
According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first two months of 2018, the CPI in annual terms amounted to 109.8% in January, 108.1% in February, and 101.6% in February to December 2017. The dynamics of the indicator values gives reason to believe that the annual value will be in the region of 7.5 - 9 %%. However, the analysis of such a short horizon is unlikely to be useful in a practical sense, since too superficial data is accepted.
The ratio of the final income of the population
According to the forecast for 2016-2018, published by the government at the end of 2015, the final incomes of the population, adjusted for inflation, in 2016 will continue to decline and will decline by 0.7% compared to 2015. Reasons - reduction in budget expenditures at all levels for wages and social benefits. However, the inflation rates inherent in this forecast are lower than the actual ones, which means that real incomes of the population are likely to decrease by several percent in 2018, which is directly related to how this will interact with the consumer price index.
How has the situation changed in foreign countries?
The annualized inflation rate for February 2017 in Russia and some foreign countries was:
- Belarus 12.80;
- Brazil 10.36;
- Germany 0.00;
- Greece -0.52;
- Spain -0.84;
- Kazakhstan 15.11;
- Canada 1.36;
- Mexico 2.87;
- Russia 8.06;
- US 1.02;
- Ukraine 32.66;
- France -0.19;
- China 2.30.
Based on the data in the table, we can conclude that prices are stable in the medium term in the main economies of the world (China, the USA, the countries of the Eurozone), and in some places there is even deflation.
On the contrary, the highest rates of price growth are observed in countries that have experienced or are going through periods of political instability or falling prices for energy resources (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Russia).
Considering that the Minsk authorities are likely to exert some pressure on Belstat, the statistics for Belarus do not reflect the real state of affairs regarding the consumer price index.
