Exposure from "Scenic conditions, the main parameters of the forecast of socio economic Development Russian Federation and maximum price levels (tariffs) for the services of the infrastructure sector companies for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019 "
... The basic option is designed based on the moderate dynamics of URALS oil prices at $ 40 / Barr. In 2016 - 2019.
On the background of low consumer demand Inflation will slow down to 6.5% in 2016 against 12.9% in 2015, with a further slowdown in its growth to 4% by 2019.
During the entire forecast period, the policy of restrained growth of regulated tariffs in the infrastructure sector will continue, especially for utilities. Annual cost growth communal services will not exceed the inflation of the current year.
Gas The price of gas is one of the key factors determining the rise in prices for electricity, as the proportion of gas in the final price for electricity in the forecast period will be approximately 30% with minor fluctuations from year to year. In 2016, the indexation of gas prices for all categories of consumers will be 2% (in July). In the period 2017 - 2019 Wholesale gas prices will be indexed: for all categories of consumers, excluding the population, by 2% annually; For the population - 3% annually. The indexation of gas transportation tariffs on trunk gas pipelines will be carried out in the same size as for wholesale gas prices.
Electric power industry In 2016, the average annual growth of the final electricity prices for all categories of consumers to the previous year is expected in the amount of 7.5-8.2%, or about 0.5 percent. item is lower than predicted earlier, which is due to a decrease in demand from consumers, as well as changes in the consumption structure in real sector. By preliminary estimate, in 2017 time prices The electricity in the retail market will grow for all categories of consumers by 7.1% on average for the year, in 2018 - by 5.4-5.9%, in 2019 the rise in electricity prices will be 5.1-5.6 percent . The growth of regulated tariffs of network organizations for consumers In addition to the population (other), on average for 2017 will be 6.3% (indexing in July by 5.0%), in 2018 - 4.5% (4.0%), in 2019 year - 4.0% (4.0 percent). At the same time, the amount of tariff indexation for individual network organizations can be differentiated in order to ensure their break-even. In order to reduce the scope of cross-subsidy in the electrical network complex, the amount of indexation of tariffs of network organizations for the population will be: in 2017 - 7.0%, in 2018 - 6.0%, in 2019 - 6.0 percent.
In the wholesale market, the rise in prices is predicted: in 2017 - at the level of 7.5%, in 2018 - 5.5-6.5%, in 2019 - 5.5-6.5 percent. The increase in prices in the wholesale market of inflation rate in 2017 is mainly due to the continuation of the input of the new power under capacity contracts.
Housing and utilities Limit indices Changes by citizens for utilities (without taking into account services for the removal and disposal of household waste, which are part of the utilities from 01/01/2017) will be: from July 2017 - 4.8%, from July 2018 - 4.3%, from July 2019 - 4.0 percent. Tariffs for thermal energy will be indexed From July 2017 by 4.1%, from July 2018 - by 3.9% and from July 2019 - by 3.7 percent. Water supply tariffs in this period will be indexed by 6.2%, 6.0% and 4.7%, respectively. The key factors for changing the cost of utilities are the indexation of gas prices and the rise in electricity prices, which, in turn, are the incoming costs of heat supply organizations and water supply.
By the end of 2016, the formation will end regulatory framework For a phased transition to a new method of regulating the thermal energy market based on the limit level of the price (alternative boiler room).
The level of prices for goods and services is always interested in Russians, because only very rich people can afford not to follow the cost, clothing, food, utilities, and the like. Ordinary citizens, facing new numbers on the price tags, are forced to revise their budget, compulsory income with expenses. In the conditions of a prolonged crisis, the deflator indices become an important measure of the welfare of Russia - after all, they allow the experts to judge real level Income citizens.
The recent, tax maneuver in the oil sphere and the rapid, no doubt, will adversely affect the retail market indicators. All these factors will influence not only the goods of the consumer group, but also on the cost of fuel, electricity and freight in enterprises, and this will lead to the increase in the cost of all types of services and goods - from the already mentioned food products to real estate.
The index deflator will show which will be the purchasing power of the ruble
Prediction of price dynamics is an important stage in planning, so specialists necessarily calculate deflator indices. Simple citizens, this forecast is also interesting - it will make it possible to draw up a shopping plan, especially if it concerns large acquisitions. Let's deal with together what this price indicator can be in 2019!
What are deflator indices?
Speaking simple languageThe index deflator is a coefficient used in order to determine the final price of a certain set of goods and services. These indicators need to count for a couple of years ahead, as it allows the Ministry of Economic Development to develop measures to improve the social and economic life of Russians, as well as to think over negative accuracy measures financial processes. Thus, deflator indices are a base for predicting prices for the next year.
In fact, economists make a comparison of price indicators for commodity groups in the current period of time with basic price values. If we talk about the economic content of this indicator, then it resembles the consumer price index - only the deflator is calculated not just for individual consumer goods, but for a complete set of products from the commodity sphere and services, including those that have not been presented on the market.
Speaking the specifics of the calculations of this indicator, it is possible to notice its main disadvantage - deflators displays the economic situation in such a way that the inflation value is understated. According to independent experts, it is because economists of government departments actively use deflators - because they need to show that life in the country is coming On the way.
After determining the deflator indices, experts reduce calculations into a single forecast, taking into account the medium and long-term perspective. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development publishes the likely scenarios, which take into account not only the manifestations of certain internal factors, but also the conditions of foreign markets. This helps the leadership of the country to choose the goal, the achievement of which will increase the standard of living in the state, as well as develop scenarios of their incarnation in life with a positive and negative forecast.
Scenarios of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019
The Ministry of Economic Development uses an index deflator when creating forecasts The forecast involves the implementation of one of the 3 scenarios. In Russia, they are known as:
- "Basic" (if in the economy of the Russian Federation will continue the conditions close to the current);
- "Conservative" (takes into account the probability of deterioration of current conditions);
- "Target" (based on the assumption that the conditions in the domestic and foreign markets will be optimal for Russia).
Forecasts take into account that: a) Russia will continue to be influenced by sanctions from Western European states and the United States; b) the Government of the Russian Federation implements a complex of response antisanction measures; c) the international economy gradually stabilizes, and global crises and shock situations will cost the world community. In this case:
- The Central Bank will be able to implement targeting measures by fixing them at 4%;
- prices for Oil brand "Yurall" will stop at $ 40 per barrel;
- the intervention in the currency market, the volume of which will be equal to income from the export of oil and gas, contribute to the strengthening of the ruble course.
Scenario №1: Basic
This forecast is based on such assumptions:
- foreign economic conjuncture will allow to preserve the growth of the global economy at 2.8%. It is assumed that the developed countries Exhausted the possibilities of growth and will face the consequences of unfavorable demography, and the Chinese economy will demonstrate the slowdown dynamics due to a strong debt burden. In turn, developing states will reduce growth rates due to falling prices for the commodity commodity group;
- increases energy demand. Black gold prices will be saved on stable level due to the prolongation of oil production agreements, although there will be pressure due to an increase in the extraction of shale oil in the United States;
- russian exports of oil will increase, as world prices will be more attractive than inland prices;
- investments will grow by advanced rates due to the implementation of the in-department program of preferential loans for small and medium-sized business representatives;
- the economic growth of Russia will support the introduction of "Increase labor productivity" and "digital economy". As a result, not only labor productivity will increase, but also the number of jobs will increase, new import substitution products will arise;
- the main driver of economic growth will be the disposal of the manufacturing industry (ie, enterprises of the chemical, food and light industry).
Taking into account the above abstracts, such changes in the Russian economy are possible:
- the unemployment rate will fall to 4.7%;
- real will increase by 1.3-1.5%, which positively affect the market consumer credits and grow demand.
Scenario №2: Target
Target calculations are based on the same set of prerequisites as the basic version of economic development, but additional positive factors are laid in its calculations:
- rosstat data (presumably, in 2019, the demographic position of the Russian Federation will be improved by increasing fertility and migration growth);
- the flow of investment will increase due to the growth of oil production (it will be commissioned by new wells and modernization of technologies);
- strengthened and will amount to 67 rubles 40 kopecks for the US dollar;
- the dynamics of GDP will be positive (3.1% per year).
According to the target scenario, the growth of oil production will noticeably strengthen the position of the Russian Federation Scenario №3: Conservative
This forecast option assumes that financial system The Russian Federation will suffer from a number of crisis phenomena:
- the main factor, negatively affecting economic growth, is called "Hard landing" chinese economy. The reason can be negative trends in the financial and non-financial markets;
- developed states may tighten their monetary policy;
- the global demand for oil resources will decrease, because of which the quotes will fall up to $ 35 per barrel;
- the course of the Natsvalets in such conditions can reach 70.3 p. for the US dollar;
- pace gDP growth drop to 0.8% per year;
- inflationary indicators have been made of 4.3%.
Forecast deflator indexes for 2019
According to the expected scenario (which, however, has not yet been adjusted, taking into account tax and social innovations - such as raising the retirement age, fiscal maneuver in oil industry and the growth of excise on fuel in 2019), the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on such numbers:
- estimated price index for consumer goods - 104.4;
- estimated price index for goods for the industrial sector - 104.1;
- the coefficient characterizing the wholesale price of the gas is 103.8;
- the indicator for wholesale prices for fuel oil - 102.1;
- index deflator of coal prices - 103.9;
- coefficient for retail prices for electricity - 109.1;
- the index calculated for the cost of heat and water supply is 105.1;
- the rate for freight by Russian Railways - 105.2.
Forecast of the Central Bank of Russia
Experts from the Chief Bank of the Russian Federation declare that oil prices, according to their calculations, will grow much more in 2019 than the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Elvira Nabiullina, holding the post of head of the department, average price Black gold will reach 55 cu Barrel. And since the ruble course was less dependent on the oil, the scale of the influence of this factor for a number of consumer prices will significantly decrease.
Despite new economic decisions in the field of social and economic politicians (VAT raising up to 20%, raising the age of retirement to 63 years old for Russians and 65 years old for Russians), the Central Bank promises that inflation will not be more than 4%. However, Nabiullina noted that latest news Negatively affected the inflation expectations of ordinary Russians - according to polls, now in the country there are rise to prices up to 7.8% per year.
Forecasts of independent experts for 2019
Independent experts believe that the joy of the authorities is premature: due to economic innovations, prices for all types of goods and services will begin to grow It is worth noting that non-governmental experts relate to financial perspectives 2019 with less optimism. Analysts believe that the government will not hold inflation at the specified mark. 4% is an unattainable indicator, and it will be good if in 2019 financial inflictions and rigid monetary policies will enable the purchasing power of the ruble at least at least 4.5%. Are you interested in details? Then read forecasts from different areas of the economic life of the Russian Federation!
- Experts are confident that increasing VAT will hit the business environment. First, the growth of the basic VAT will negatively affect the cost of excisable goods (gasoline, alcohol, tobacco products). Secondly, in Russia today there is a dizzying jump of prices for the fuel group of goods - only over the past few months, diesel fuel reached 40.5 rubles, 92th gasoline - 38.7 rubles, 95th gasoline - 41.96 rubles. Thus, for the period from May to June, fuel prices rose by 7-8%. At the same time, the government has yet abandoned plans to increase excise tax, but as soon as it is generally increased (and this is scheduled for 2019), the price of fuel will be at least 50 rubles / liter. Naturally, such a jump will definitely affect the prices of products, household goods and transport services, after all, seeding and collecting agricultural culberry, transportation of goods and passengers are impossible without refueling auto and agricultural equipment.
- Another important moment - Reaction of the real estate market. There is an opinion that in 2019 you need to be prepared for a sharp surge of prices for. New VAT And the price of fuel will have a negative impact on the cost of building services and materials (fittings, brick, concrete, elevators, finishing materials, construction equipment, etc.), transportation services and works of construction equipment. New bid. VAT will make prices by 3-4% higher than the current, and if you add a cost of gasoline and planned inflation here, then you can expect growth by 5-7%. For current price square meters - These are huge amounts for ordinary Russians.
- Do not forget that the reserve fund of the country was devastated. Of course, the Ministry of Economic Development specifically lays out low oil prices in the forecast to replenish the fund due to the difference between the planned and actual oil, but the experts believe that this will not be enough. Moreover, the government announced another increase in pensions and minimum wage. It will be possible to implement such social initiatives only by additional emission of money - and this will obviously lead to the devaluation of the Nationalities.
- The growth of VAT may lower the activity of businessmen. Experts warn that the filling of the budget (which depends on VAT by 34%) not only will not increase, but even falls. Entrepreneurs will massively leave the shadow to cope with the pressure of growing prices.
- Car market experts are also alarming. For some assumptions, the price of this group of goods will grow by 10-14% in 2019, and pessimistic forecasts speak of 20% increase. At the same time, the calculations were made on the basis of only two factors - the ruble course and the growth of the collection of disposal.
- Operators of the tourist sector also stated about the potential increase in prices. The cost of tours can increase by 15-20% - even taking into account the fact that domestic transport uses a preferential VAT rate.
- Whatever spoke in the Central Bank that the ruble is less dependent on the oil industry, experts consider otherwise. Analysts warn: it is not necessary to naively believe that the price of oil will grow in the long run. Already by the end of 2018, OPEC countries can reconsider their attitude towards oil production restrictions, and the United States will once again increase the amount of shale deposits. In this case, the price will fall very significantly. The Government of the Russian Federation should abandon populist measures and start replenishing the treasury exclusively with fiscal methods. The means should be sent to structural upgrades, reducing the degree of dependence of the country from oil exports.
Assess the growth of the welfare of the country's population is not an easy task. The incomes of citizens are growing, but at the same time prices are growing. Which country boasts a higher income growth - Russia, or, say, Switzerland?
To answer this and many other questions, economists and statistics are used by the so-called. Consumer price index - one of the most important economic indicatorsevaluating the inflation rate in the country for a certain period. Its sometimes called it - the inflation index. Using this indicator in the calculations, you can find out how really the inhabitants of a country or the region, or the region, for a certain period of time have become richer or poorer.
Consumer price index for 2018 Rosstat official website
In Russia, the value of the IPC on the years, months and in the regional context is published on the official website of Rossatat of the Russian Federation. Currently, statistics are conducted since 1991. These data can be used to assess how the final prices for goods from the consumer basket in the current period differ from the value of the same goods in an earlier (basic) period.
Growth formula is calculated with what?
CPI (English Consumer Price Index, CPI) is calculated as the ratio of the value of goods and services in estimated period To prices for the same goods and services in the period of the base, taking into account the share of these goods and services in the consumer basket, or by the so-called. Formula Laspeyres.
Usually, when calculating the basic, the cost of the consumer basket at the annual period is taken, example: in September 2015 - for September 2014, in October 2015 - for October 2014, in November 2015 - for November 2014 , etc. However, depending on the scope of application, this indicator can also be calculated by December last year and (for macroeconomic research and long-term planning) to the level of prices for years and even decades in the past.
The value in some extent the reverse CPI is called the GDP deflator, or the Pasha index (Paasheas). It is also used to estimate the inflation level and is defined as the ratio of the size of the GDP of the estimated period as a percentage of the basis of the base period. This is not the same thing. Unlike the inflation index, the deflator is based on the cost of the consumer basket, but on GDP as a whole; When calculating the CPI, the cost is taken into account imported goods, and the GDP deflator is not.
In addition, the third approach can also be applied - the Fisher's formula, something average between the CPI and the GDP deflator, but now it is rarely used (as the indicator is calculated for this complex formula, Wikipedia will help).
What does it show and what can be used for?
The indicator calculated according to Laspeyres formula shows how the cost of goods and services included in the consumer basket has changed in relation to the base period. If it is more than a unit (100%), then there is a rise in prices (inflation), if less - reduction (deflation). So why do you need this indicator?
CPI allows you to adjust the final income of the population for the period on the overall price level and show how rose or fell real income Population, i.e. We became richer or poorer with you, and how much. It affects interest rates And courses on stock market and the bond market, the Ministry of Economic Development is used for indexing wages of state employees, pensions and benefits.
The forecast average annual inflation rate is taken into account when developing a budget for the next year. Productivity in the economy is also measured taking into account the dynamics of the price level. Central Bank of the Russian Federation The forecast of the inflation rate is used to calculate the average annual currency rate to the ruble, so the CPI has a great influence on forex trading. How does this coefficient affect currency courses? High inflation indicates low purchasing power ruble, i.e. The higher the predicted CPI, the weaker today is the course of the national currency.
Consumer Price Growth Index for 2018 Rosstat Official website
The value of the indicator in the Russian Federation for 2017 was 112.9%. Based on reports in the context of the regions of the Russian Federation published Federal Service State statistics on its website, the difference in inflation in the regions was insignificant.
So, Moscow has shown in 2017 the rise in the cost of life at the level of 114.1%, in St. Petersburg the index increased compared with the previous year to 113.2%, in the Nizhny Novgorod region - 112.2%, in Rostov - 112.1 %, in Samara - 112.7%, in Chelyabinsk - 112.0%, in the Altai Territory - 112.4%, in the Krasnodar Territory - 112.7%. The Volgograd region showed an increase in 113.2%, Yaroslavl - 113.9%. SAMI high inflation fixed in the Republic of Crimea - 27.6%,
In the context of groups of goods, the indicator last year also hesitated slightly and amounted to:
- Food goods - 114.0%;
- For non-food products - 113.7%;
- For services - 110.2%.
Rising prices for the first two months of 2017 amounted to 1.6%, which means an average monthly increase of 0.8%, or 9.6% year in annual terms. On the Internet there are several resources offering a very convenient calculator to calculate the inflation index for different periods.
Basic shape: What is taken into account
The consumer basket used by Rosstat to calculate the level of inflation, in contrast to the minimum basket, includes a wide range of goods and services (only 396 items), including those unusual as foreign tour and ritual services. The main problem of calculating the indicator is how to determine basic set Products and services included in the consumer basket. How to calculate the value of the indicator on the product or service that was not in yesterday? How to apply data in calculations that a particular product or service in one social group or the region takes a greater share of expenses, and in the other - the minimum? Inflation index underestimates structural movements in consumption (replacement effect expensive goods cheap) and ignores variations in the cost of goods depending on their quality, therefore it is considered that real inflation is lower than the value of this indicator.
Inflation: Forecast for 2018
In the law O. federal budget For 2018, the amount of inflation in the amount of 6.4% is laid, and this is at the average price of the barrel of oil in the area of \u200b\u200b$ 50. It is already clear that the price of oil will be below this level, and inflation in Russia will be higher, which will affect the consumer price index. Representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believe that this figure is at the end of the year in the region of 7 percent.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukayev from the beginning of the year has already called different figures, and on the basis of the latest statements, the agency expects rise to prices in 2018 less than 8%. The UN measures the opportunity to rise in prices in Russia at 10.5%. The actual value is likely to be in the middle area from these forecasts.
Consumer price indexes for 2018 Rosstat
According to Rosstat, following the first two months of 2018, the CPI in annual expression amounted to 109.8%, in February - 108.1%, in February to December 2017 - 101.6%. The dynamics of the values \u200b\u200bof the indicator gives grounds to believe that the annual value will be in the region of 7.5 - 9 %%. However, the analysis of such a short horizon is unlikely to be useful in a practical sense, since too superficial data is accepted.
The ratio of finite income of the population
According to the forecast for 2016-2018, published by the Government at the end of 2015, the final incomes of the population, with amendment for inflation in 2016, will continue to decline and will be reduced by 0.7% compared with 2015. Causes - reducing the costs of budgets of all levels for labor and social payments. However, inflation rates are incorporated in this forecast, which means that the real incomes of the population are likely to be reduced in 2018 a few percent, which is directly related to how it will interact with the consumer price index.
How has the situation changed in foreign countries?
The level of inflation on the annual basis for February 2017 on the annual basis in Russia and some foreign countries amounted to:
- Belarus 12.80;
- Brazil 10.36;
- Germany 0.00;
- Greece -0.52;
- Spain -0.84;
- Kazakhstan 15,11;
- Canada 1.36;
- Mexico 2.87;
- Russia 8.06;
- USA 1,02;
- Ukraine 32.66;
- France -0.19;
- China 2.30.
Based on the data of the table, it is possible to conclude about the price stability on the medium-term horizon in the main economies of the world (China, USA, the eurozone country), and there is even a deflation.
On the contrary, the highest rates of price increase in countries that have experienced or experiencing periods of political instability or the fall in the cost of energy carriers (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Russia).
Given that the Minsk authorities are very likely to have a certain pressure on Belstat, Belarusian statistics do not reflect the real state of things about the index for consumer prices.
