Impact of refinancing rate for inflation

When you hear inflation statistics in economic news reviews, very often reporters also mention the refinancing rate.

In Russia, the refinancing rate is determined by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation holds consultations within the year in order to determine the refinancing rate. Index consumer prices and manufacturers price index play very important role When appointing a refinancing rate.

The refinancing rate directly affects the lending market (loans), because high rate Refinancing does borrowing credit funds More expensive. By changing the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it is trying to obtain maximum employment of the population, stable prices and an acceptable level of economic growth. With the fall of the refinancing rate of spending of the population, which leads to stimulating economic growth.

Contrary to the opinion of most of the population, excessive economic growth can, in fact, cause harm to the economy. In the most extreme case, too rapidly growing economies can lead to hyperinflation and related problems. Otherwise, if there is no inflation in the economy, it can lead to stagnation and recession. A suitable level of economic growth and, accordingly, inflation is usually a golden middle between hyperinflation and stagnation. The task of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to maintain the necessary balance between excessively high and excessively low inflation. Raising the refinancing rate is an attempt to lower future inflation. During the reduction in the refinancing rate, is aimed at stimulating economic growth.

It is worth noting, at least inflation and is very an important factorBut this is not the only factor that is considered by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation when choosing a refinancing rate.

For example, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may reduce the interest rate during the financial crisis to increase liquidity on financial markets Countries that will prevent the market crisis.

Influence on investment inflation

When investors consider investing opportunities, many are asked: "How will the current inflation rate affect my investments?". This question becomes the most relevant for people receiving fixed income (for example, for pensioners).

The influence of inflation on the investment portfolio depends on the type of financial instruments present in the portfolio. If the investment portfolio mainly consists of shares, the effect of inflation will be insignificant. This is due to the fact that in the long run, the company's revenue (income), which issues shares should increase by a percentage comparable to inflation, which will lead to an increase in market capitalization and, accordingly, increase the share of shares of such a company. The exception is the situation in the stagflation of the economy. This is a combination of economic recession and growing costs. Staging negatively affects stock prices. In addition, in companies with a large reserve of funds in proportion to other assets, at a high level of inflation, the purchasing power is noticeably reduced, which negatively affects activities.

Basic negative consequences Inflation relative to the shares is that the company's yield will be artificially overestimated. With a high level of inflation, the company may seem economically prosperous, but in fact inflation will be the main cause of revenue growth.

When analyzing financial statementsAn important factor is the understanding that inflation can distort the real state of affairs regarding the assets of the company. This, nevertheless, depends on the method of calculating the cost of assets, which is used in the firm.

Fixed-income investors are most susceptible to inflation. Imagine that a year ago you invested 1,000,000 rubles to government bonds of the Russian Federation, with 10% yield. A year later, you get 1,100,000 rubles, but the question is how real is your income of 100,000 rubles. Suppose that inflation was positive for the year. This means that your purchasing power decreased, as is your income from the bond. If inflation amounted to 5% over the past year, then your real yield will be only 5%. This example shows the difference between the nominal and real interest rates. The nominal interest rate is the gross increase of your income, expressed as a percentage, while the real interest rate shows an increase purchasing power. In other words, the real interest rate is a nominal interest rate reduced to the inflation rate. In the aforementioned example, the nominal interest rate is 10%, and the real - 5% (10% -5% \u003d 5%).

As an investor you should evaluate the investment in a real interest rate. Unfortunately, most investors make a mistake, given only the nominal profitability rate, forgetting about the concept of purchasing power.

Bonds indexed on the level of inflation

There are financial instruments that offer investors guaranteed real yield, taking into account inflation. In America, there are so-called Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (Tips) or financial instruments protected from inflation. They are a derivative financial instrument from US Treasury Bonds. TIPS is similar to other types of treasury bonds, except that coupon and final payments depend on the consumer price index (Consumer Price Index) and increase in order to compensate any increase in inflation.

The refinancing rate is the main regulator of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which allows you to change development trends national Economy. Thanks to her, it is possible to learn about the economic situation in the country, not listening to the opinions of experts and the statement of politicians.

Definancial rate definition

Simple language is a bet under which the Central Bank issues money to commercial banks to keep their activities. Banks, receiving money in debt, issue loans to physical and legal entities For a higher percentage.

Information about it is in public domain on the site Central Bank CBR.ru/Press/KEYPR/ Therefore, anyone can familiarize yourself with the trend in the financial market and get a number of more important information.

Since 2016, the key rate has become equivalent to the refinancing rate, but the term itself remained, since it is planning to calculate interest on loans, the maximum possible amount of penalties, the base for the taxation of deposits and so on.

What does the refinancing rate affect

For the first time, the refinancing rate was used in 1992. Since then, its magnitude has reached 200% per annum, and in the period 2016-2018 gradually decreased. Despite the difficult economic situation, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced the rate from 11% to 7.5%. This means that the state is obtained to cope with external pressure on the national economy.

In parallel with the decline, measures were taken on the devaluation of the currency. It raised interest in domestic products on the world stage, which increased the influx foreign currency to the national economy.

Such measures allowed to obtain the following:

reducing inflation levels;
internal stimulation;
stimulating exports;
reducing the cost of loans for individuals and legal entities.

That is, changing the key parameter can have a big impact on the life of ordinary citizens, so leading world experts pay great attention to this indicator in the study of the economic situation in the state.

According to this value, it is possible to assess the prospects for investing in the state and study the potential risks of non-return. With a high level of inflation and the tendency to increase its increasing money into the country is irrational.

The regulator is set once a few months and depends on the trends in the financial market.

Banks and other financial and credit organizations in tax matters are always focused on the indicator and in the calculations of the profitability of financial products:

if deposit revenues in national currency will be 5% higher compared with refinancing rate, then it is necessary to pay income tax, which is 35%. But the tax is not taxed, but only the dividends obtained, which exceed the rate on the specified value;
FNS charges fines and penalties for non-compliance with payment timing, according to this value;
the rate is taken into account when calculating the penalty for the late payroll payment by the employer. To ensure that the employee is able to get a penalty, you need to contact Git.

That is, the indicator affects not only the financial market, but also used by commercial and budget organizations in his work.

Dependence on the level of inflation

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the refinancing rate for stimulating or containing economic growth. It depends on the level of inflation, reflects the real position of the economy in the country and allows you to restrain and increase the rate of economic growth.

The dependence of the refinancing rate and inflation is as follows:

when reducing inflation level, the key rate is also reduced.This allows banks to borrow money from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation under a smaller percentage, which gives grounds to reduce loans and deposit rates. A gradual decrease will not lead to significant changes in the financial market, but if a great change will occur immediately, a credit boom can be triggered. There is a likelihood of devaluation national currency, due to which the inflation rate will grow;
when growing - the bet is growing too.Smooth change cannot change the market trend, but with a one-time significantly change, the cost of loans will increase significantly. This will lead to an increase in value. cashTherefore, inflation will begin to shrink.

Who determines the amount of the bet

The optimal value is discussed by experts in the Central Bank. Based on the position of the economy and the level of inflation, a decision is made to increase or decrease this value. When the inflation is reduced, the rate is also reduced.

In practice, it looks like this:

enterprises when the rate decreases, can produce more products for the same money, since their real value will be higher. That is, the level of production in the country is stimulated. Individuals Get too big real income, so their purchasing power rises;
when consumers begin to buy goods in large quantities, a deficit appears on the market. Because of this, sellers are forced to raise the cost of products, which leads to an increase in inflation.

Changing the rate can lead to various processes in the country's economy. To obtain the maximum desired effect, use a set of measures. For example, to reduce inflation levels additionally reduce public spending and reduce the amount of money supply, which is in circulation from the population.

Management methods

There is balanced and unbalanced inflation. The first exists with the successful adaptation of the market to changes in pricing.

There are several ways to influence its level:

tightening tax policy;
reduction of government spending;
reduction of economic activity by state structures;
limitation maximum salary at the legislative level;
reduction of money supply;
change rates.

The economy allocates three main types:

Moderate when its size does not exceed 5% per year. Sometimes it can be 10%. With this level of the enterprise interested in increasing production volumes.
High when it can reach 200% per month. Today it is observed in countries with a developing economy.
Hyperinflation is studied every day. Per year can be several thousand percent.

Thus, the inflation rate has a direct impact on the country's economy. The Central Bank, changing the refinancing indicator, can adjust the rates of its growth. However, a comprehensive impact is necessary in order to change the trend in the market, so specialists use several existing tools to control its level.

What is the difference between the key bet on the refinancing rate

The difference between the key bid and refinancing rate is, in relation to what loans they apply. The essence is one: this is the cost of loans issued by the Central Bank, but the duration of the contract differs.

To understand this, you need to figure out the terminology. The key rate is the cost of the loan issued by the Central Bank financial and credit organizations For a short time. It is on the basis of this indicator that the profitability of deposits and the cost of loans for individuals and legal entities is calculated.

Refinancing rate - the cost of long-term loans from the Central Bank. Used to calculate penalties and penalties in state organizations.

In practice, these two indicators are the same. For the first time they were equalized in 2016. Since then, when a change in one indicator changes and the second one on a similar number of points.

Thus, the difference in fact is only in terminology. All of them have the same impact on the country's economy, stimulating or holding back growth and supply and increasing or reducing real value Money mass.

What is the difference between the accounting rate from the refinancing rate

The accounting rate of the Central Bank is the cost of a loan, under which the Central Bank issues money to the debt to commercial banks.

According to the current legislation, the Central Bank establishes the discount rate minimum meaning. This indicator is also called refinancing rate. But, in contrast to this term, commercial banks Set the discount rate also on their own. This is important financial instrumentwhich allows you to manage various trends in the financial market.

The difference between the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Commercial Bank

If the central bank indicator is a key index that allows you to change the situation in the market, then in the case of commercial, this is the cost of loans that the company issues individuals and legal entities.

It is calculated individually, based on the following nuances:

state loan portfolio organizations;
the level of slaughterism of the population;
state of the financial market;
availability of free cash.

The difference between the key bid and the percentage of the bank is the income of the financial and credit institution. Today russian organizations Give loans, the cost of which exceeds the refinancing rate of 7-8 times. Despite the gradual decline in the cost of loans for creditors, they are in no hurry to reduce interest.

What is affected by the bid of a commercial bank

In fact, it affects only the cost of loans specifically taken. But if it is changed by such giants like Alpha Bank, VTB or Sberbank, then there is a tendency to change the situation in the market as a whole.

There are several types of rates:

simple;
complex;
nominal.

Depending on its type, various formulas must be applied to calculate the final loan overpayment.

Today, banks are not interested in lowering the percentage of loans, since the state of the loan portfolio is not perfect. The share of non-return debts is quite high. Lenders are obliged to pay income taxes with loans issued. That is why in the near future the Russians do not have to wait for a significant decline in interest.

Dynamics of refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 1.01.1992-26.03.2019

The study of the dynamics helps to understand the experts, as the state economy developed for several years. These data are more important than the statements of most political figures.

Table with the values \u200b\u200bof the refinancing rate by year: 1.01.1992-26.03.2019

Based on the schedule, we can conclude that average level Inflation has decreased significantly over the past 2 years. This trend continues, despite the sanctions and devaluation of the national currency.

The value from 2019 is 7.75%. The official website of the Central Bank: CBR.ru.

Studying the refinancing rate and the history of its changes, it can be assumed that the Bank of Russia leads a balanced policy to reduce inflation and stimulating internal production in the country. Today, the refinancing rate is equivalent to the key. But the old term is actively applied, as it helps financial organizations Correct interest for the provision of money in debt and penalties in violation of the contract.

Most experts agree that the reduction trend will continue until the inflation rate in the country does not reach 4%. It was such an indicator that was delivered by the current President of the Russian Federation to the Central Bank in the second term of stay in this post.

According to estimates of some specialists, the sanctions of Europe and the United States should bring their fruits soon, which will lead to an increase in the key rate. Such an opinion exists in Western experts who specialize in the Russian direction.

Danilov Yuri Gavrilevich, Candidate economic Sciences. head Department of the economy of subsoil use either IRES ISFU. MK Ammosova

Dependence of inflation from refinancing rate

Annotation. The submitted article discusses the actual issue of the impact of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank for inflation in the country. The author withdrew the empirical formula of the dependence of inflation from the refinancing rate in Russia, which allows you to predict the level of rising prices. The possibility of regulating inflation by changing the refinancing rate is shown, as well as to predict the possibility of economic crises. Welcome words: bank, dependence, inflation, key rate, crisis, refinancing rate.

The refinancing rate goes the base rate of the Central Bank (in the US FRC) in any country serves as one of the most important financial regulation tools. IN Russian Federation This parameter is set Central Bank RF and from 14.09.2012. Its value is set at 8.25%. On September 13, 2013, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, as part of the transition to the Targeting of Inflation, decided to implement the Complex of measures to improve the system of monetary policy instruments. These measures include: 1) the introduction of a key rate of the Bank of Russia by unification interest rates On operations providing and absorbing liquidity on auction basis for a period of 1 week; 2) the formation of a corridor of the Bank of Russia interest rates and the optimization of a system of instruments for the liquidity regulation of the banking sector; 3) Changing the role of refinancing rate in the system of instruments of the Bank of Russia. Reliable activities will enhance the transparency of the monetary politicians and improve its understanding of the economic entities, which will contribute to the strengthening of the effectiveness of the percentage and information channels of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy and to achieve the ultimate goal to ensure pricing stability. Dependency of annual inflation (consumer price index) in the country from refinancing rate (in percent) can be determined by raising , withdrawn on the basis of a retrospective analysis of the dependence of inflation from the rate for a number of leading countries of the world from 2002 to 2012. : I \u003d kconst ∙ r + in

IR + IN, where: R-rate refinancing or base rate; i-annual inflation rate,%; kconst-constant accountability depends on the degree of development of the country's economy, on the assumption of the authon is 0.5; In-level inflation (deflation) Unknown refinancing otiating , Definently reading prices in the country and development market mechanisms In economics.

Practical changes in inflation and refinancing rate of the refinancing system of the Federation in 19972013., Founded by the formal statistical data are summarized in Table1.

Table 1 By changing the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the level of inflation and the course of dollar of the Russian Federation in 19972013. The Year Stationpoint of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation,%

Inflationi,%

Dollar rate, rub. 199732.3115 803199852,984,410,12199957,236,524,67200033,320,228,1220012518,629,17200222,715,131,35200317,31230,70200413,511,728,81200513,010,928,28200611,69,027,18200710,311,925,57200810,913,024,85200911,48,831 , 8220108,08,830,4420118,16,129,3420128,16,631,002013 * 7,46,431,80Tube is based on data federal Service State Statistics and Central Bank of the Russian Federation. * Author score.

Using data Table. 1 The dependence of inflation was built against refinancing rate in the Russian Federation in 19992013, eliminating the 19971998 data. As uncharacteristic due to the crisis state of the economy of that period, we will see that the dependence of inflation from the refinancing rate in 19992013. Wears a pronounced linear character (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Dependence of inflation from refinancing rate in 19992013.

As a result of mathematical processing of the program to use the following empirical formula: I \u003d 0.57 ∙ R + 3.26, where: I-level inflation,%; R-rate of refinancing Central Bank of the Russian Federation,%. In the resulting empirical formula proportionality coefficient close to value 0 , 5, and the value of unregulated inflation is 3.26%. Using the formula, it can be determined that with the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation -5.5%, while maintaining existing conditions regulation of monopoly prices by the state, inflation in the country of 2013. will not exceed -6.4%.

Next, we introduce the inflationary adjustability coefficient (K) as the ratio of the values \u200b\u200bof unregulated inflation to the total inflation: K \u003d | IN / I |. This indicator helps assess the current situation in the country and provide recommendations for regulating inflation due to changes in the refinancing rate (Table 2, Fig. 2). Bottle 2 changes in the inflation rate and inflation rate coefficient in the Russian Federation in 19972013. Wi-filling,% InPri KCONST \u003d 0.5,% k \u003d | In / I | 1997115,15 (hard regulation) 0,468199884,457,95 (default) 0,687199936,57,90,2162000 10,328200215,13,750,2482003123,350,279200411,74,950,423200510,94,40,40,200,29,40,40,356,200711,96,750,567200813,07,550,58120098,84,10,52,12,12,12,12,12 00,33420126,62,60,3872013 * 6,42.70,365Table is compiled on the basis of the data of the Federal State Statistical Service and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. * Author's rating.

From the presented in Fig. 2 graphics of changing this coefficient in 19972013. It can be seen that the level of unregulated inflation in 1998 and 20072008. Overcoming the critical level (k ≥0.5), which was accompanied by a crisis of the economy in Russia. In 20072008. The rise in prices in world markets in Russia and the world has occurred raising the rates of inflation, which ultimately led to the global economic process. Adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation, anti-crisis measures and solutions for the suppression of artificial increases of prices contributed to a decrease in the inflation unregulated at the expense of the inclination rate in 2009, but in 2010. Again exceeded 0.5. In 2013, the coefficient of the preservation of the regulation of the regulation of the refinancing of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation approached the critical level equal to 0.5 could lead to the country's economy further to the new crisis.

Fig. 2. Dynamics of inflation regulatory coefficient in the Russian Federation in 19972013.

The adoption by the Bank of Russia decisions on the introduction of a new inflation regulatory toolkit in the country's country and the establishment of its value equal to 5.5% corresponds to the proposed author of the leadership of the RFDiapazon 56%. Therefore, from the cardinal measures could be the adoption of decisions by the Government of Russia with a sideling disconnectable rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 3.5 ÷ 4%, which would reduce inflation by 0.75 ÷ 1% by reducing the rate. Taking into account such a decrease in the rate of the issuing interest in price policies in the Russian Federation, it would not exceed 3 ÷ 4.5% per year.

References to sources1. The designation of the Bank of Russia dated September 13, 2012 No. 2873U "On the amount of the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia" .2. Danilov Yu.G. Three China regulation. Regulation capabilities financial system Russian Federation. Magazine "Eco" №9, 2008 from. 158165.3. On the system of percentage instruments of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy. September 13, 2013. http://www.cbr.ru/pw.aspx?file\u003d/dkp/130913_1350427l.htm.4. Inflation in Russia. 5. Danilov Yu.G. Letter to the president of the RFO refinancing rate.27.02.2013.

Yuri Danilov, PhD in Economics. Head. Department of Economics Subsoil No Ires Nefu Them. MK Ammosovadependence of Inflation On The RefinancingAbstract.in The Present Article Deals With The Topical Bank Refinancing Rate on Inflation in The Country. The Author of An Empirical Formula Depending On the Refinancing Rate of Inflation in Russia, Which Allows TopRedict The Level of Inflation. The Possibility of A Change in Control of Inflation Rate Of Refinancing, AS Well As to Predict The Possibility of Economic Crowes.Criton Scheywords: Bank, Dependency, Inflation, The Key Rate, The Crisis, The Refinancing Rate.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
Press service

107016, Moscow, ul. Neglinnaya, 12.

The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key bet on 25 bp, to 6.00% per annum

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on February 7, 2020 decided to reduce at 25 bp, up to 6.00% per annum. The slowdown of inflation occurs faster than predicted. Inflationary expectations of the population and price expectations of enterprises as a whole remain stable. Rates of growth russian economy increased in the second half of 2019. The risks of a substantial slowdown in the global economy are preserved. At the short-term horizon, disinflating risks are still dominated over the intelligence. Under these conditions, taking into account the monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5-4.0% at the end of 2020 and will remain near 4% later.

In the development of the situation in accordance with the basic forecast, the Bank of Russia allows for further reduction in the key bet in the nearest meetings. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on a key rate, taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics regarding the goal, the development of the economy on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from the internal and external conditions and the reaction to them of financial markets.

Inflation dynamics. The slowdown of inflation occurs faster than predicted. An annual rate of consumer price increase in January fell to 2.4% (from 3.0% in December 2019), both due to the exit of the effect of VAT increasing effect and due to a moderate rapid growth rate in January. Annual basic inflation for January decreased to 2.7% after 3.1% in December. Inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable processes of price dynamics, according to the Bank of Russia estimates, are near or below 3%.

In January, disinflating factors continued to have a significant impact on inflation. The annual growth rates for food and non-food prices continued to decline. The expansion of the proposal in individual food markets contributes to the preservation of low monthly (with the exception of seasonality) and the annual growth rates of food prices. The ruble strengthening occurred in 2019, along with the slowdown in inflation in trading partners, limits the rise in prices for imported goods. The impact on the inflation of restrained demand is maintained, including external.

In January, inflationary expectations of the population decreased slightly, while remaining at an elevated level. Price expectations of enterprises are stable. The deceleration of annual inflation creates conditions for further decline in the inflationary expectations of the population and business.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5-4.0% in the results of 2020 and will remain near 4% later.

Monetary conditions. Monetary conditions continued to soften. There was a decrease in the yield of OFZ and deposit and credit rates. Accepted by the Bank of Russia decisions about the decline in key rate and the decline in OFZ returns create conditions for further reduction of deposit and credit rates, which will support the growth of corporate and mortgage lending. At the same time, consumer lending growth is gradually slowed down, largely due to the tightening of non-price conditions under the action of macroprudential measures of the Bank of Russia.

The Bank of Russia will evaluate the impact of already accepted decisions on the key rate on monetary conditions and the dynamics of inflation.

Economic activity. According to the first assessment of Rosstat, growth GDP In 2019 amounted to 1.3%, which corresponds to the upper border of the Bank of Russia's forecast of 0.8-1.3%. The dynamics of end-consumption costs made the main contribution to GDP growth in 2019. In turn, a decrease in the physical export volume had a significant negative impact on the dynamics of GDP.

In the fourth quarter, the improvement of economic activity indicators continued. Thus, the support of investment activity at the end of last year had an accelerated increase in the capital expenditures of the budget, including in connection with the implementation of national projects. The annual growth of turnover continued retail and industrial production. However, advanced indicators continue to indicate the preservation of weak business moods in industry, especially in terms of export orders. The deterrent effect on the dynamics of economic activity continues to reduce external demand for Russian exports in conditions of slowdown in the growth of the global economy.

The labor market does not create redundant inflationary pressure. Unemployment near Histornsky low levels It is due not to the expansion of demand for labor, but at the same time a reduction in the number of employed and able-bodied population.

GDP growth forecast in 2020-2022 is preserved by the Bank of Russia unchanged. GDP growth rates will gradually increase from 1.5-2.0% in 2020 to 2-3% in 2022. This is possible as a set of government measures to overcome structural restrictions, including the implementation of national projects. At the same time, the reduced growth rates of the global economy expected on the forecast horizon will continue to have a restraining effect on the growth of the Russian economy.

Inflation risks.At the short-term horizon, disinflating risks are still dominated over the intelligence. This is primarily due to the state of internal and external demand. Disinflating risks are preserved by the dynamics of prices for individual food products, including due to the growth of the offer. It is possible to continue influence on the increase in the price of the ruble in 2019 in 2019. The reaction of both consumer and investment demand for the private sector to mitigate monetary conditions and stimulating budgetary measures may be limited by the restrained sentiments of consumers and business.

At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the effect of intelligent factors. The risks of reversal of trends in the food market are not excluded, given that the ratio of temporary and permanent factors in this market is difficult to assess. Along with this, realized mitigation of monetary policy can have a more significant increase in inflation than the Bank of Russia assesses.

Risks associated with trade disputes have slightly decreased. Nevertheless, the risk of further slowing the growth rate of the global economy is maintained, including under the influence of geopolitical factors, strengthening volatility on world commodity and financial markets, which may affect the exchange and inflationary expectations. An additional factor in uncertainty for the coming quarters is Coronavirus.

According to the Bank of Russia, the implementation of additional social measures declared in January will not have significant intentional influence. At the same time, within 2020, a schedule for budget expenditures will affect the dynamics of inflation.

On a longer horizon, there are intentional risks from a number of internal conditions. Significant risk remains increased and uneasured inflation expectations. On the medium-term inflation dynamics may also affect the parameters budget Policy, including decisions on investing the liquid part of the national welfare fund over a threshold level in 7% of GDP.

Evaluation by the Bank of Russia Risks associated with the dynamics wages and possible changes In consumer behavior, not significantly changed. These risks remain moderate.

Following the meeting of the Board of Directors at the key rate on February 7, 2020, the Bank of Russia published a medium-term forecast.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will consider the issue of the level of the key rate, is scheduled for March 2020. Publication time press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia - 13:30 Moscow time.

The refinancing rate is one of the most important monetary policy tools. It allows the central bank to provide indirect influence on the level of inflation through changing the money supply by regulating the size of the monetary base. If the central bank is raised by the refinancing rate, commercial banks will strive to compensate for the loss caused by its growth (the rise in the cost of the loan) by increasing loan rates provided to borrowers, i.e. Changing the refinancing rate directly affects the change in rates on loans for commercial banks. As a result, it affects the decrease in inflation pressure in the economy. Moiseev, S. R., Monetary policy. Theory and practice. from. 60-75

In world practice, the accounting rate, from the point of view of commercial banks, is the costs of redundant reserves.

Therefore, when the National Bank lowers this bid, it encourages commercial banks to obtain loans. Accordingly, loans issued by commercial banks at the expense of these loans increase the offer of money.

In the case of sufficiently low inflation, the change in interest rate can be used in order to stimulate the growth of the money in the economy, which leads to its revival, contributes to reorientation investment streams from state securities on the stock market. For these purposes there is a decrease in the level of interest rates.

In turn, increasing the discount rate, the National Central Bank reduces the incentives of commercial banks to obtain loans, which reduces the amount of loans issued by banks and, accordingly, the offer of money. http://www.conomic-review.ru/publications/61/

Figure 4 - Interrelation of refinancing and inflation rates

On the diagram you can observe 2 trends:

The first: from June to December 2010, where you can view that with a decrease in the refinancing rate, inflation in the country increases;

Second: from March to October 2011, where it is fashionable to observe that with an increase in the refinancing rate, inflation is reduced.

Thus, it can be concluded that there is feedback between the dynamics of refinancing rates and inflation processes in the country.

Interest on deposits in all banks are tied to refinancing rate. The return on deposit above the refinancing rate by 5 percentage points is subject to income tax - That is, the Bank is obliged to keep the tax on the contribution that the percentage exceeds the current refinancing rate by 5%. http://damoney.ru/bank/stavka-refinansirovaniya-cb-2010.php.

IN lately There is a gradual decline in the refinancing rate, and at the same time percent bank deposits. Although recently banks beat records on the proposed population by bank deposits with high interest rates. Banks needed to attract cash Any price in order to keep afloat after suddenly stunned as a thunder among the clear sky of the financial crisis. But time will come to pay on debts and there is a chance that some banks will not be able to fulfill their obligations - therefore, some experts predict the second wave of the crisis in the banking sector.

Thus, the refinancing rate of the Central Bank directly affects the profitability bank deposits For the population. That is, the income that we get, putting money on the deposit, depends on the current refinancing rate.

Interest on deposits not only Sberbank, and all Russian banks strongly depends on the refinancing rate of the Central Bank, which changes periodically.

And at the legislative level it was established that if a bank offers a percentage of deposit higher than the refinancing rate, the inclusion tax increases dramatically.

Dependence Direct: The lower the refinancing rate, the lower interest on deposits in russian banks. Moreover, only rare banks interest on deposits exceed the refinancing rate determined by the Central Bank.

Figure 5 - Interconnection of interest on deposits and refinancing rates

The diagram shows the opposite dependence between the refinancing rate and interest on deposits (on this chart interest on Sberbank deposits). Consequently, the higher the refinancing rate, the lower interest on deposits.

Conclusions to chapter 2

The change in the value of the bet is one of the tools of the monetary policy of the state along with open market operations (Purchase and sale of state valuable papers) and a change in the value of the mandatory reservation of commercial banks in the Central Bank.

By reducing or increasing the base rate of the Central Bank, it may increase or weaken the interest of commercial banks in obtaining additional reserves by borrowing. When the rate is reduced, the cost is reduced. borrowed money, and, as a result, the volume of corporate investment and population expenditures is growing, stimulating GDP growth. Conversely, raising the rate, restrains the investment and expenses, which slows down the growth of the economy.

Changing the refinancing rate directly affects the change in rates on loans for commercial banks. The latter is the main goal This method of monetary policy of the Central Bank.

The refinancing rate allows the central bank to provide indirect effect on the inflation rate through the change in the money supply by adjusting the size of the monetary base. If the central bank is raised by the refinancing rate, commercial banks will strive to compensate for the loss caused by its growth (the rise in the cost of the loan) by increasing loan rates provided to borrowers, i.e. Changing the refinancing rate directly affects the change in rates on loans for commercial banks. As a result, it affects the decrease in inflation pressure in the economy.

The refinancing rate is below market rates and serves as a guide for commercial banks. Changing the rate allows the central bank to pursue the "expensive" policy and "cheap money."

The refinancing rate of the Central Bank directly affects the profitability of bank deposits for the population. That is, the income that we get, putting money on the deposit, depends on the current refinancing rate.

The decline in interest rates stimulates entrepreneurial activities, an investment process and thereby economic growth.

Changing the official refinancing rate Central Bank means moving to new monetary policythat makes commercial banks make the necessary adjustments to their activities.