Why are they hiding from Russians what will happen to the dollar? Euro forecast. What to expect from the ECB meeting? Will the rate go up?

Russians are worried not only about the dynamics of the domestic currency, but also about what will happen to the dollar in the near future. Many are also interested in the question of whether the euro will continue to grow in 2018 and how this currency affects the ruble. Changes to financial market are reflected in the standard of living of ordinary citizens.

Financiers believe that by the end of 2018 the euro will fall against the dollar to $1.12. At the beginning of next year, its smooth growth will begin again. This morning, September 12, the price of the euro is 81.39 rubles.

What will the euro be by the end of 2018?

According to the observations of Russian and world analysts, rates are constantly fluctuating on the foreign exchange market. Based on such observations, the country's economy is assessed. The euro is now under pressure from the dollar and the policies of Donald Trump.

Experts reassure: it is unlikely that the euro or the dollar itself will rise to 100.00 rubles. Now the situation in the foreign exchange market is unstable due to economic relations between the Russian Federation, America and the EU. Inflation in the EU is quite low, but economic growth is observed. Perhaps the European Central Bank will take non-standard measures that will help eliminate the deflationary threat.

In the last days of August, the euro became 9-10% weaker against the US currency. Experts have become more skeptical after studying the results of America's trade policies. Many countries are considering the possibility of using national currency bypassing the American one, but this is pointless, practice shows. The dollar has too strong a position against the ruble and the euro, and when the Russian economy stabilizes, it will nevertheless strengthen its position.

The euro is not significantly affected by military actions in the Middle East, but actions in the economic market lead to consequences that are not beneficial to the country. The American president limited the import of cars from Europe, and American agricultural products began to be boycotted on the European market.

In what currency is it better to keep savings?

Now analysts cannot confidently answer the question in what currency it is advisable to store savings. Most Russians receive their salaries in rubles, and experts do not recommend converting all savings into dollars and euros. The dynamics of the euro will be affected by the actions of the European Central Bank. If he decides to adjust the easing program, the European economy will be stimulated. At the end of 2018, the euro exchange rate will be 79.69 rubles, or 1.15 dollars. It is unlikely that the euro will grow further this year.

Budget planning of state income and expenditures consists of many external and internal factors, one of which is the quotes of world currencies. The forecast of the euro, dollar or franc against the ruble is made by expert analysts for three years. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the cost of imported goods or holidays abroad. Therefore, changing the price of foreign currency is important not only for the government, but also for ordinary Russians.

Analysts, making a forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2019, assess changes economic indicators, which can be divided into two groups:

• predictable;
• unpredictable.

Forecasts include:

• credit policy of foreign countries;
• degree of inflation and GDP;
• stability of the political system of various countries;
• energy tariff;
• sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Unpredictable factors are also called sudden. These are natural disasters, catastrophes, and military actions.

Dynamics over the past 10 years

Another indicator used in the analysis is the price fluctuation by € over the past few years.

The highest euro exchange rate was recorded in 2016, and the lowest in 2010. The average value for 10 years is 53.357 ք, which is 33% less than the 2018 price.

Opinion of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The Central Bank predicts the price at the beginning of 2019 at 90 ք per 1 €. This is possible provided that the foreign policy situation in the world remains the same. In the event of a deterioration in relations between Russia and the countries of the European Union, Russians should expect an increase in the value of the € to the ruble.

An important point in the EU's foreign policy is the UK's intention to leave the union. If this happens in 2019, the € will fall first against the dollar and then against the ruble.

In addition to foreign policy factors, Central Bank analysts link the value of the euro to the price of oil. If the predicted increase to $80 per barrel occurs, the € tariff will soften.

Ministry of Economic Development

The Ministry of Economic Development has a different position regarding the euro quote in 2019. Experts believe that you should not expect a sharp drop or increase. In their opinion, the stabilization of the € is due to the establishment of interactions between the United States and Russia, as well as the positive results of the elections in Germany and France.

Sberbank

The largest bank in Russia annually makes its prediction of fluctuations in world currencies. Forecasts for the euro exchange rate from Sberbank experts predict an increase at the beginning of 2019 to 87 rubles, and a gradual decrease by the end of the year to 70 rubles.

Until 2020, Sberbank predicts a stable price of € 70 rubles, and then its reduction to 60-62 ք.

Foreign experts

Foreign analysts have other hopes for the euro exchange rate. They say that € will rise to 100-120 ք. The rationale for the forecast is the following:

• sanctions restrictions;
• flaw own funds in the Russian budget;
• development of new oil fields in the USA;
• change in rates Central Bank EU;
• inflation in the European Union countries.

At the same time, the Morgan & Stanley credit agency believes that the euro will only grow to 80 ք.

Forecast of Russian independent experts

The latest forecast by Russian analysts does not imply a collapse of the euro in 2019. In their opinion, the situation will change from an increase in quotations from January to March to a gradual decrease by December.

The European currency at the end of 2019, in their opinion, will consolidate at the level of 75-76 ք, and this situation will last until mid-2020.

Government measures to stabilize the financial situation

Sharp jumps in foreign currency quotes on the financial market are much worse than a simple weakening ք. The government is taking active measures to stabilize the euro in 2019. Planning is for 3 years:

• gradual reduction of budget expenditures;
• increase in taxation for enterprises from January 1, 2019;
• increasing foreign exchange reserves;
• reduction in the level of consumption of foreign goods.

The Central Bank has all the levers to correct the prospect of a decline in the euro. He can act according to one of two strategies:

• weak;
• strong.

If the Central Bank chooses a weak policy, then this leads to the collapse of the ruble. With this strategy, the volume of sales of eurocurrencies increases, money supply the growth of the national economy is compressed and suppressed.

With strong politics, the opposite happens:

• the money supply increases;
• the economy is stimulated;
• The national currency is strengthening.

Time will tell what position the Central Bank will choose.

Relationship between € and $

How much the € will cost also depends on the dollar, since these currencies change their value expression in relation to ք almost synchronously. This trend will continue in 2019. As the dollar increases, the euro currency invariably grows. At the same time, the euro is always more expensive than the dollar.

Preconditions for € growth

What will happen to the euro in relation to ք depends on changes in factors:

• EU and US sanctions;
• energy tariffs;
• oil and gas export;
• inflation;
• Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts;
• the deplorable state of the Russian economy.

All of them indicate the inevitable growth of the € in the coming years. Greatest influence It is precisely the tightened sanctions against Russia that are making it impossible for Western countries to invest in the country’s economy.

Government Scenario

To plan the budget, officials make their own forecasts for changes in euro quotations. Three scenarios are being developed on which foreign and domestic policies depend:

• positive - it assumes the lifting of sanctions and improvement of the economic situation in the state, the exchange rate will decrease to the level of 62 ք;
• neutral – if all factors are maintained, then the cost € will remain at the same level;
• negative - falling oil prices and tightening sanctions will lead to an increase in the euro currency, and it will reach 100-120 ք.

A sharp increase in the value of € will inevitably lead to financial crisis in the Russian economy.

What should the population do?

Citizens are concerned about changes in foreign currency rates, as this leads to higher prices for consumed goods. To save your savings and stay afloat, experts advise following a number of rules.

Mortgage

When choosing a loan program main role the rate plays a role, and for loans in foreign currency it is lower than for loans in rubles. But rising rates make such a mortgage unaffordable to pay off. Therefore, citizens are recommended to resort to refinancing and convert the loan into national currency.

How to save savings

People who have available funds are concerned about how to protect them from inflation. This can be done if you don’t let the money just lie there, but invest it in something:

• real estate;
• bank deposit;
• purchase of precious metals;
• purchasing foreign currency.

The latter method seems less effective, since if citizens begin to actively buy €, then its value will begin to rise sharply, and after a decline in demand, it will fall.

Global changes in the financial sector

The price of € directly depends on the situation in the EU countries. It is especially influenced by the economies of the leading countries - Germany, France, Italy and others.

The most important indicator is budget deficit. If it rises above 3% of GDP, the € will invariably fall. The next indicator is the Industrial Sentiment Index. It is compiled based on surveys. Its growth leads to an increase in €.

Political factors of the G7 countries play an important role in shaping the value of the euro. If there is a threat of creating a coalition government in any European state, it leads to a fall in stock exchange prices.

Imports of Russian raw materials to the EU and investment injections into the Russian economy from EU countries are affected by economic instability V Russian Federation. Financial instability leads to a fall in the € rate against the currencies of other G7 countries.

No forecast can be 100% accurate, since even predicted factors are quite difficult to predict. The introduction of new restrictions against the Russian Federation only aggravates the situation in the country's financial market. For stabilization and independence, it is necessary to establish our own production.

For 2019 long term forecast The euro exchange rate is calculated based on a variety of fundamental and technical data. Fundamental data includes world news and events, the situation in the Russian Federation and European Union, foreign policy situation in the world and much more. Technical data may include the presence of an upward or downward trend on currency pairs and other stock market information. All this allows us to predict the euro exchange rate.

The sanctions war unleashed by the US government against Russia is leading to serious jumps in the national currency on the stock exchange. The introduced restrictions on cooperation with enterprises, legal and individuals make it difficult to work with foreign partners and divert foreign capital from domestic projects. Exports of goods decreased. This is especially noticeable in oil sales, the main export resource.

With the introduction of new sanctions Russian economy should not be expected in the near future. This will drive other European partners away from Russian business. Such a situation will have a negative impact on economic situation country and will lead to a weakening of the ruble. Which, accordingly, will cause the euro and dollar to rise.

Oil price

Experts from Barclays Capital talk about an increase in the price of Brent oil above $80 per barrel since mid-spring 2019. This state of affairs will improve the position of the domestic currency on the world market and will stabilize the price of the euro or even reduce it.

This may happen due to a decrease in its production and refining in Venezuela: production will be reduced almost by half - from 1,200 million barrels per day to 500-600 million.

Sanctions against Iran also contribute to an increase in the cost of “black gold”. Now European companies have practically stopped cooperating with Iranian enterprises. However, China, Japan and India continue to buy Iranian oil.

Production in the USA is decreasing. Due to infrastructure limitations in one of the central basins, by the end of 2019, production will be reduced to 500-600 million barrels per shot.

A decrease in oil prices may occur as new fields are developed and demand for other energy resources increases.

Situation in Europe

The position of the European currency largely depends on the situation in the EU countries. Political or economic problems in one of the countries entail a fall in the euro on the world market.

The UK has long declared its serious intentions to leave the European Union. In 2016, a referendum was held, as a result of which 51.9% of citizens expressed their desire to leave the EU. Brexit is officially scheduled for April 2019. If this happens, the value of the euro could significantly decrease relative to the dollar, and subsequently the ruble.

It will be possible to talk about the prospects for the euro after summing up the results of the European central bank behind reporting period. If the chapters financial organizations demonstrate the growth of the countries' economies, this will contribute to an increase in the price of the currency.

Situation in Russia

The situation in the country's economy today is unstable. US and EU sanctions, high inflation, slow economic development, rising prices for gasoline and essential goods negatively affect the position of the ruble. Now the situation has stabilized, but the situation may change in a negative direction.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the euro exchange rate will be as unstable as in the previous few years. However, in 2019 it should not exceed 90 rubles.

If the internal economic situation worsens and tensions in relations with other countries and foreign business partners increase, the ruble will steadily fall and the euro will rise. IN in this case, the price can exceed 90 and even 100 rubles.

Euro exchange rate forecast

Analysts' opinions for 2019 are directly opposite. Most experts expect only a worsening of the situation and a rapid rise in currency prices. This is due to several factors:

1. The constant discovery of new oil fields and the increase in exporters of “black gold” reduces the likelihood of an increase in the price of this resource. And this significantly affects the state of the Russian economy.
2. Changes in the position of the US dollar. Even though these are competitive currencies, the euro is to a greater extent depends on the dollar. When the price of the dollar rises, the same trend can be observed in the euro.
3. The depreciation of the ruble is provoked by citizens themselves, keeping their savings in foreign currency.

The most pessimistic picture is seen by experts who do not agree with the actions of the Central Bank. She argues that maintaining the ruble’s position is artificial and that this could soon result in a significant jump in the growth of currencies.

There are also optimistic opinions that predict the strengthening of the ruble and economic growth in the Russian Federation. This can be achieved through the actions of the Government and ordinary citizens:

1. Reducing the use of foreign products, paying more attention to domestic producers.
2. Saving savings in domestic currency.
3. Increasing investment in domestic production.

Today the average bank rate is 75 rubles. The traditional price increase is expected at the beginning of the year until February. Then it will be possible to observe a slight decline until mid-summer. On average, forecasts stop at around 80 rubles.

Important! The situation can change dramatically in one direction or the other. The reason for this may be unrest within countries, military actions, natural disasters and cataclysms.

Forecasts of experts from the Ministry of Economic Development

Specialists from the Ministry economic development They believe that no sharp fluctuations in the euro exchange rate should be expected until the end of 2019. The positive result of the elections in France has already had a strengthening effect on the euro currency, and the same should be expected from the elections in Germany. The situation in the Eurozone is calm, relations between the United States and Russia are beginning to improve. Under these conditions, the ruble exchange rate against European monetary units should stabilize and not present any negative surprises.

Traders and bankers confidently talk about stable growth in both the euro and the dollar in the coming months. Both currencies are still undervalued, European operations are experiencing high surpluses, Russian banks are also expecting an influx foreign capital- all these factors will continue to stimulate the appreciation of the euro currency.

Another scenario for the development of events is also possible, in which in the second half of 2019 the rise in prices for the euro currency will stop and during the fall there will be a correction in the form of a slight depreciation of the euro.

Predicted exchange rate of the euro currency according to Sberbank

According to the forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, in the 2nd quarter of 2019, the euro exchange rate in Russia will decrease slightly. In the fourth quarter, the euro should strengthen its position and by the end of the year fall in price to 71 rubles per unit.

The first three months of 2019 are expected to further increase the value of the euro from 81 to 87 rubles, and over the next 9 months it will drop to 71-72 rubles per euro. This trend should continue until mid-2020. By May 2020, Sberbank predicts a decrease in the value of the euro currency to 62 rubles per euro.

Financial experts believe that by the end of 2018 the euro currency will fall against the dollar to $1.12. From January 2019, the euro exchange rate will begin to grow slowly, this is the opinion of many analysts. Until this moment, the ruble was considered in the financial market, but now experts are more inclined towards the euro.

An increase in the exchange rate of the euro or dollar to 100 rubles is unlikely. Predisposing factors to instability of the foreign exchange market are economic relations between the EU, USA and Russia.

In the Eurozone this moment there is low inflation and the economic growth. The issue of the possible introduction of non-standard measures by the ECB, which will help combat the deflationary threat, is now being decided.

Based on Forbes data, at the end of August 2018, the euro weakened its position against the dollar by 9-10%. The indicators of US trade policy make experts skeptical. Many countries are involved in negotiations on the use of national currencies and bypassing the dollar.

In practice, it is clear that such proposals cannot be implemented. The dollar occupies a strong position against the euro and the ruble, which will begin to strengthen its position after the Russian economy stabilizes.

The euro does not “suffer” as much from military operations in the Middle East as the dollar and ruble. Any action on economic market entail a number of consequences that are not beneficial for countries.

Donald Trump, after restricting the import of cars from Europe, received a boycott of American agricultural products on the European market in retaliation.

Due to sanctions and various restrictions, internal tension in the European market is increasing.

Expert opinion on the euro exchange rate in 2018

According to analysts, at the moment it is difficult to say in which currency it is best to keep cash savings. Now most Russians earn in rubles. Experts advise spending them rather than converting them into any foreign currency.

Due to economic weakness in many regions, the euro is expected to remain under pressure in early 2019. Dynamic growth of the European currency is unlikely. At the moment, the euro is considered a common replacement for the dollar; without the euro currency, it will be difficult to maintain global balance in the foreign exchange market.

The fate of the euro will depend on the actions of the ECB. If he changes the easing program, the European economy will be stimulated. By the end of 2018, the euro will cost 79.69 rubles or $1.148.

There is a low probability that the euro will strengthen its position against the dollar in 2018. From January 2019, the European currency may rise, but only slightly.

In times of crisis, counterfeit banknotes often appear on the market. A distinctive feature of the euro is the 11-digit serial number, to which another letter is added.

When replacing a letter with its serial number in the Latin alphabet and adding the resulting numbers with the rest, the number 8 should come out. Only in this case is the bill genuine.

There is another way to check. The numbers and letter will correspond to the country where the bill was printed. If the result is X2, then the bill comes from Germany.

Well Russian currency will strengthen in about six months. Salaries will rise, inflation will remain low, but the share of the middle class will shrink. This is the forecast made by Russian economists.

According to them, there are no fundamental reasons for further weakening of the ruble: over the year, oil prices have increased by almost one and a half times, and the ruble has fallen slightly in price, although it should have grown. This suggests that the ruble is within its current borders due to geopolitical pressure and the purchase of foreign currency by the state.

The threat of introducing new sanctions against the Russian Federation remains. It is this circumstance that can affect the depreciation of the ruble. "The main intrigue now is whether a restriction will be introduced on Russian government debt and how will this affect currency market. I think the likelihood of this is minimal, which gives reason not to expect a significant weakening of the ruble. Since it is precisely such a package of restrictive measures and sanctions that could greatly weaken the ruble,” said the managing director of the National rating agency Pavel Samiev.

However, even if foreign investors decide to withdraw their money from bonds federal loan, for Russia this will have its own advantage: it will be possible to buy back the national debt for next to nothing.

Experts note that the Central Bank’s policy is keeping the ruble from strengthening, since the regulator for some reason considers this dangerous for the economy. They do not agree that a cheap ruble is definitely good for Russia.

“It’s good for those who export ferrous metallurgy products. But the entire industrial assembly will collapse. The weight of components is much greater than the weight of labor. Those who planned to modernize, purchase imported equipment, everything was postponed because it was unclear at what rate to carry out transactions,” said the director of the Center for Structural Research of the Institute economic policy named after Gaidar, expert at the Center for Strategic Research Alexey Vedev.

The fall in the ruble exchange rate does not threaten severe inflationary shocks. Most likely, price increases will remain at an acceptable level. However, changes in the exchange rate will affect consumption patterns. “Holidays abroad will fall by 30–40 percent. The devaluation will also affect overall consumption paid services. Industrial assembly and industries with high added value will suffer,” Vedev predicts.

Economists advise Russians to keep their savings in different currencies, but still give preference to the ruble, since it is in it that most of the expenses are made. Much also depends on the timing of savings.

“If we are talking about fairly short-term savings - up to a year, a ruble instrument is probably better. If we are talking about saving for a noticeably longer period more than a year, you need to look towards hard currencies, since the risks of devaluation over a long horizon grow noticeably. There is not even a shadow of hope that the sanctions pressure will decrease. And any pressure means a weakening of the ruble,” noted the associate professor of the department stock markets and financial engineering of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, advisor on macroeconomics to the general director of Otkrytie Broker Sergei Khestanov.

By autumn the ruble should be quite stable. “After the hysteria, he will return to the 57-58 corridor, oil will not be lower than $65, and these positive expectations will ensure that the situation does not worsen. Disposable incomes will not fall. Salaries will grow by about 3% above inflation,” believes Alexey Vedev. Sergei Khestanov expects that the dollar will cost 62-64 rubles.

“Real disposable incomes of the population may not stagnate, but may even grow slightly. Another question is the distribution of the population structure by income. It seems to me that we should expect a decline in the share of the middle class. The income of the population will still be supported budgetary sphere and the public sector,” concluded Pavel Samiev.

Currently on the Moscow Exchange the US dollar costs 61.67 rubles. (5 kopecks more than the day before). The euro continues to fall. Currently, they offer 75.21 rubles per unit of euro currency. (17 kopecks less than yesterday).