Introduction

Currently, not a single sphere of social life can do without forecasts as a means of knowing the future. Especially important are forecasts of the socio-economic development of society, substantiation of the main directions of economic policy, and foreseeing the consequences of decisions made. Socio-economic forecasting is one of the decisive scientific factors in the formation of the strategy and tactics of social development.

The relevance of this topic both in a developed market economy and in a transitional economy is determined by the fact that the level of forecasting the processes of social development determines the effectiveness of planning and management of the economy and other areas.

The purpose of this course work is to consider the methodology and techniques for developing socio-economic forecasts to determine the essence, areas of application and the most effective forecasting methods. To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: to determine the essence of the methods of socio-economic forecasting and the area of their application in the course of studying the theoretical and methodological foundations of the forecasting methodology; to characterize the methods of socio-economic forecasting in economically developed countries and to identify the features of their application in modern Ukraine.

In the process of writing this term paper, textbooks edited by V.O. Mosin, K.L. Triseeva, V. Tsygichko, V.V. Deniskin, as well as scientific articles on the problem under study in the periodicals "USA: Economics Politics Ideology", "World Economy and International Relations", "Problems of Forecasting", "Russian Economic Journal", "Problems of Forecasting", "Russian Economic Journal", "Economy of Ukraine", "Bulletin of Moscow State University".

Socio-economic foresight of the main directions of social development presupposes the use of special computational and logical methods that allow determining the parameters of the functioning of individual elements of the productive forces in their interconnection and interdependence. Systematized scientifically grounded forecasting of the development of socio-economic processes on the basis of specialized ones has been carried out since the first half of the 50s, although some forecasting methods were known earlier. These include: logical analysis and analogy, extrapolation of trends, polling the opinion of specialists and scientists.

In the development of the methodology for forecasting socio-economic processes, the scientific developments of domestic and foreign scientists A.G. Aganbegyan, I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, L. Klein, V. Goldberg. The works of these scientists consider the meaning, essence and functions of forecasting, its role and place in the planning system, explore the issues of methodology and organization of economic forecasting, show the features of scientific forecasting. The development of works covering forecasting issues is carried out in the following main areas: deepening the theoretical and applied development of several groups of techniques that meet the requirements of different objects and different types of forecasting work; development and implementation in practice of special methods and procedures for the use of various methodological techniques in the course of a specific forecast research; search for ways and methods of algorithmic forecasting techniques and their implementation using a computer.

Forecasting methods should be understood as a set of techniques and methods of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the forecast object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain certainty regarding it (the object) future development.

According to estimates of domestic and foreign scientists, there are currently over 20 forecasting methods, but the number of basic ones is much less (15-20). Many of these methods relate rather to separate techniques and procedures that take into account the nuances of the predicted object. Others are a set of individual techniques that differ from the basic ones or from each other in the number of private techniques and the sequence of their application.

In existing sources, various classification principles of forecasting methods are presented. One of the most important classification features of forecasting methods is the degree of formalization, which quite fully covers forecasting methods. The second classification criterion can be called the general principle of the forecasting methods, the third is the method of obtaining forecast information. In fig. 1.1 shows the classification scheme of forecasting methods.

As shown by the diagram shown in Fig. 1.1, according to the degree of formalization (according to the first classification criterion), methods of economic forecasting can be divided into intuitive and formalized. Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished.

The composition of individual expert assessments includes: the “interview” method, in which direct contact between the expert and the specialist is carried out according to the “question-answer” scheme; analytical method, in which a logical analysis of any predicted situation is carried out, analytical reports are drawn up; a method of scripting, which is based on the definition of the logic of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions.

The methods of collective expert assessment include the method of "commissions", "collective idea generation" ("brainstorming"), the "Delphi" method, the matrix method. This group of methods is based on the fact that with collective thinking, firstly, the accuracy of the result is higher, and secondly, when processing individual independent assessments made by experts, at least productive ideas can arise.

The considered classes of intuitive and formalized methods are similar in their composition to expert and factographic methods. Factographic methods are based on actually available information about the predicted object and its past development, expert methods are based on information obtained from the estimates of expert experts.

Rice. 1.1

The class of expert forecasting methods includes the method of heuristic forecasting (heuristics is a science that studies productively creative thinking). This is an analytical method, the essence of which is the construction and subsequent truncation of the “search tree” of expert judgment using some heuristic. With this method, specialized processing of predictive expert assessments is carried out, obtained by a systematic survey of highly qualified specialists. It is used to develop forecasts of scientific and technical problems and objects, the analysis of the development of which either completely or partially does not lend itself to formalization.

In the studied literature, a significant number of classification schemes for forecasting methods are presented. The main error of such schemes is a violation of the principles of classification, which include: sufficient coverage of forecasting methods, the unity of the classification feature at each level of division (with multilevel classification), the non-intersection of classification sections, the openness of the classification scheme (i.e., the possibility of supplementing with new methods) ...

In most classification schemes, forecasting methods are divided into three main classes: methods of extrapolation, expert judgment and modeling. With such a division, the methods of extrapolation are opposed as an independent class of methods of modeling.

On the one hand, the construction of models aims to reveal the pattern of development of the object or process under study in a certain retrospective area. And if the model is built correctly and adequately reflects the connections and properties of the real object, it can serve as a basis for extrapolation, ie, for transferring some conclusions about the behavior of the model to the object. This is predicting the behavior of an object by extrapolating the trends identified in the model.

On the other hand, extrapolation methods are nothing more than the use of theoretical and empirical models to find variables outside the retrospective section of observations based on the data of the relationships between them in the retrospective section. Thus, the use of extrapolation in forecasting always presupposes the use of any models. Therefore, any modeling is the basis for extrapolation.

Constructive classification allows you to visually depict a set of forecasting methods in the form of a hierarchical tree and to characterize each level with its own classification feature. (fig. 1.2)

At the first level, all methods on the basis of "informational basis of the method" are divided into three classes: factual, combined and expert.

Socio-economic forecasting: functions, principles and methods

To plan the development of the national economy, a system of various forecasts is used, which include social, economic, demographic, etc. Forecast is an important part of the economic policy planning process. It makes it possible to outline the results of the economic development of the national economy. In general, the forecast provides information about the development of the object in the future. Forecasts are developed by state and non-state organizations in the form of qualitative characteristics of development and quantitative estimates of economic indicators. Forecast Based on qualitative and quantitative parameters. The forecast covers the following stages: formation of an information base; object analysis; analysis of the external environment; determination of the predicted trajectory of the object; making decisions; assessment of the forecast quality. The essence of economic forecasting lies in the scientifically grounded prediction of the dynamics and structure of economic and social phenomena and processes that have an alternative, probabilistic nature and manifest themselves at the national, sectoral and other levels. The purpose of such a prediction is to improve the quality of decisions, to avoid mistakes in the development of projects of short-term and long-term state policy.

Forecasting the economic and social development of the national economy involves the study of economic and social, scientific and technical, industrial and production, agricultural, social potential. The sources of information are: accumulated knowledge and experience, factual and statistical information, economic and mathematical models.

In practice, there are the following forecasting methods: expert, characterized by a survey of specialists regarding a specific object; extrapolation, characterized by the collection of information about the development of an object in the past and the transfer of patterns to the future; modeling, characterized by the construction of models with changes in the future.

The main objects of forecasting are the national economy, the economy of intersectoral and sectoral complexes, the economy of individual regions and administrative-territorial units, and the economy of enterprises. The subjects of forecasting are the state, represented by state governing bodies of a certain level, economic services of local self-government bodies, economic divisions of enterprises.

The unity of various methods and models for developing forecasts is ensured by the principles of socio-economic forecasting. Reflecting the different aspects of forecasting, these principles create a coherent whole. There are such principles of forecasting the national economy as purposefulness, adequacy, alternativeness, consistency, efficiency and scientific validity.

The most important principle of socio-economic forecasting is the principle of purposefulness. It consists in a meaningful description of the research object, which is carried out on the basis of the tasks assigned to the research. The principle of the adequacy of forecasts characterizes the assessment of interrelationships in the development of the national economy and the creation of a theoretical analogue of real economic processes with their full imitation. That is, during forecasting, forecasting methods and models must first be validated. The principle of alternative forecasting follows from the possibility of economic development and socio-economic processes in different directions. The principle of consistency means that the economy is considered as a single object of forecasting. The principle of efficiency presupposes the effectiveness of the forecast for determining the cost of its analytical preparation. The essence of the principle of scientific validity of forecasts lies in forecasting, which requires a comprehensive account of the operation of objective economic laws and laws of the development of society.

Socio-economic forecasting is manifested through its functions:

1. a normative function, makes it possible to implement a predictive model and warns the governing bodies against subjectivity in their activities;

2. the orientation function is expressed in the determination by the subject of management of the goals of the development of society in a more realistic direction and a selective approach to information;

3. a preventive function, the task of which is to inform the control bodies about possible and real deviations of the object from the predictive model.

One of the most important characteristics of socio-economic forecasting is the classification of forecasts according to various criteria (Fig. 21.4). In turn, forecasting is also classified according to various criteria and features.

Rice. 21.4. v

Depending on the scope of application, there are socio-economic and scientific-technical forecasting. Socio-economic forecasting provides an assessment of possible future changes in the economic and social conditions of society. Scientific and technical forecasting is aimed at developing scientific, technical and technological means of implementing plans for socio-economic development.

Depending on the level of management, forecasting is divided into national economic, sectoral (or regional) and forecasting the development of enterprises. National economic forecasting takes into account the possibilities of optimal achievement of the goal of production, the fulfillment of the tasks of economic development. Industry forecasting is carried out taking into account the proposals of various industries and regions. Forecasting the development of firms, corporations, enterprises is carried out taking into account new trends in the economic and social aspect and the latest achievements in technology and production technology.

According to the degree of justification, forecasting is divided into exploratory (research) and normative. Exploratory forecasting evaluates promising trends in economic development, and normative forecasting is associated with determining the ways and timing of achieving the desired state of economic and social development of the country on the basis of the results achieved. Normative forecasting is carried out on the basis of a predetermined goal. Its task is to determine the ways and terms of achieving the possible state of the economy in the future based on the specified standards.

Forecasting is a type of government activity, one of the functions of government. In a market economy, when economic ties are formed horizontally, and administrative methods of influencing commodity producers have a limited effect, the role of forecasting becomes of paramount importance.

Economic forecasting is implemented based on the use of both general scientific methods and research approaches, and specific methods inherent in scientific forecasting of economic phenomena. Among the general methods, the following can be distinguished: historical, complex, systemic, structural, systemic-structural.

The historical approach is to consider each phenomenon in the relationship of its historical forms. Forecasting is based on the transfer of laws, trends that exist in the present, beyond its limits, in order on this basis to recreate a model of the future that does not yet exist. The connection between various historical forms of existence of this very phenomenon means that the current state of the object under study is a natural result of its previous development, and the future state is a natural result of development in the past and present.

An integrated approach includes the consideration of phenomena in their connection and dependence on each other, using for this research methods not only this, but also other sciences that study this phenomenon. The theoretical basis for the development of scientific ideas about future development is political economy. For the same purpose, the scientific apparatus of other social sciences is widely used in the theory and practice of economic forecasting.

The systems approach involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns of the passage of probabilistic processes in complex economic systems. It plays an important role in economic forecasting. Every phenomenon of reality can be considered as a system. This means that it consists of a number of interconnected parts, elements that generally provide certain properties and functions. Knowing these properties and functions, you can predict how the object under study will behave.

The structural approach plays an important role in the study of predicted objects, since the purpose of the study is a causal explanation, that is, to establish the cause of the phenomenon under study.

The systemic-structural approach presupposes, on the one hand, the consideration of the economic system as a whole, dynamically develops, and on the other hand, the dismemberment of the system into its constituent structural elements in their interaction, since in real conditions each structural element affects both all other elements and the system generally. This creates an opportunity to reveal the patterns of relationships between the elements of the system, as well as their relationship and subordination.

Socio-economic forecasting involves the use of various methods, which can be understood as a set of ways of thinking. They allow, on the basis of the data, to deduce judgments of a certain and reliable relative to the future state of the object under study.

In general, there are intuitive and formalized methods of forecasting the national economy (Fig. 21.5).

Rice. 21.5. v

Intuitive forecasting methods are used when it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the complexity of the forecast object, and in this case, expert opinions on the behavior of the forecast object are used. They can be individual (questionnaires, interviews, analytics, script writing) and collective (decision of a collective expert commission, collective idea generation, brainstorming, Delphi method, matrix method).

Formalized forecasting methods Based on analytical grids expressing both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The group of formalized methods includes methods of extrapolation and modeling.

Predictive extrapolation can be performed using least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages, adaptive smoothing. When making forecasts using extrapolation, one proceeds from the tendencies of changes in certain quantitative characteristics of an object, which have developed statistically. However, the degree of reality of the forecast made using these methods is much lower, since the economic phenomenon is influenced by several variables that cannot be extrapolated. In addition, extrapolation focuses on the past and present, and the forecast parameters may depend on factors that did not operate in the past.

Forecast modeling techniques include structural, network, matrix, and simulation modeling.

Structural models describe the links between individual elements of a single whole (intersectoral balance).

Network models provide optimization of predictive decisions using mathematical programming methods.

Matrix modeling provides for the compilation of an expert matrix based on a survey of experts.

Simulation models reproduce the development of the forecasting object in accordance with the expected situation or a similar phenomenon.

Using the above forecasting methods, conclusions can be drawn about the development of the national economy in the future.

Forecasting the economic and social development of Ukraine

The legislative basis for socio-economic forecasting in Ukraine is the Constitution of Ukraine, the Law of Ukraine "On State Forecasting and Development of Programs for Economic and Social Development of Ukraine", other laws of Ukraine and by-laws.

According to this legal framework, the main principles on which the state forecasting of the economic and social development of Ukraine is based are the following: the principle of integrity, objectivity, scientific character, transparency, independence, equality and observance of national interests.

Conducting economic and social forecasting involves studying the overall potential of the country (region, industry, enterprise). Participants of state forecasting and development of programs for economic and social development of Ukraine - state authorities, develop, approve and implement forecast and program documents for economic and social development, namely: the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the authorized central executive body for economic policy, other central bodies executive power, the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, local state administrations and local self-government bodies.

Long-term state forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine is developed for 10-15 years and is updated every five years. It should contain: an assumption about the external economic situation and internal economic policy; analysis of the country's economic and social development over the past years; forecast macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation rate, real wages, unemployment rate, budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, foreign trade balance, external debt); conclusions about the main trends in the development of the economy in the long run.

The forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for the medium term is being developed for 5 years.

The state forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for the short term is developed annually for the next year. The indicators of this forecast are used to assess revenues and form the indicators of the state budget of Ukraine.

Tagiev M.Kh.

Forms and methods of regulation of socio-economic development of regions: existing practice and development prospects

In modern economic conditions, there is a fairly broad classification of forms and methods of state regulation of the socio-economic development of regions.

Considering the management systems of regional structures, it is necessary to pay attention to the management of the socio-economic development of the regions. As you know, socio-economic development includes the following components:

Growth in production, income and, as a result, an increase in the well-being of the population;

Significant shifts in the social, institutional, administrative structures of society;

Changes in public consciousness;

Changes in traditions and habits;

Raising the level of education and improving health, etc.

To implement these components in modern conditions, a system of methods for regulating the socio-economic development of the country's regions is required.

As you know, in a planned economy, the complex of methods for managing the development of Russian regions was limited mainly by administrative methods, i.e. administrative instructions actually carried out the redistribution of resources between regions, as a result of which a relatively uniform level of it was achieved.

But in the transition to market relations, naturally, such a complex of methods is not entirely suitable for solving such problems. In the vast arsenal of modern instruments of state regulation of the region's economy, a number of forms and methods can be distinguished. State regulation is carried out in the following forms:

1) legislative;

2) tax;

3) credit;

4) subvention.

The legislative form of regulation means that special legislative acts are adopted that provide relatively equal opportunities for competition, expand the boundaries of competition, hinder the development of monopolized production, and the establishment of unreasonably high prices.

Tax and credit regulation is the use of taxes and credits to influence national output. By changing tax rates, incentives, the government affects the contraction or expansion of production, investment decisions. By varying the terms of lending, the state influences the decrease or increase in production volumes. Selling securities, it reduces bank reserves, while increasing

interest rates rise and, accordingly, production declines, and vice versa. By buying up securities, the state increases bank reserves, while interest rates fall and production expands.

The subvention form of regulation involves the provision of government subsidies and tax benefits to individual industries, enterprises (mainly to such industries as agriculture, mining, shipbuilding, transport).

Among the methods of state regulation can be distinguished: administrative and legal regulation, direct and indirect regulation.

Administrative methods include a variety of measures for rationalizing and contingent, licensing and quotas, control over prices, incomes, exchange rates, discount interest, etc. These measures have the force of an order and do not rely on economic interests and incentives that implement them. State legal regulation is carried out within the framework of economic legislation through a system of norms and rules established by it.

In our opinion, special attention should be paid to economically weak regions.

The state should provide various support to such regions: in the form of developing industrial infrastructure, stimulating the inflow of private investment, providing a number of tax and credit benefits, selective subsidies to enterprises that provide minimum employment, supplementing transfers, etc. But the main direction, the main path is the self-development of regions in based on the use of their own socio-economic potential.

Direct regulation implies the management of development through budgetary policy, direct financing, investment in certain regions or industries to curb a recession or increase the pace of development. This is one of the methods of targeted regulation (micro-instrument). The most typical example of such state activity in the regions is the implementation of investment projects of federal significance: construction and reconstruction at the expense of the federal budget of railways, highways, scientific, educational and medical centers, etc. The state should also finance projects that have a strong positive impact on employment growth, an increase in the tax base, and the quality of social services in specific regions. Currently, a significant number of investment projects are carried out on a shared basis using funds from regional budgets and private investors (the so-called "revolving" principle of financing). The federal targeted investment program, included in the structure of the federal budget for 2003, contains hundreds of candy objects and provides for the allocation of 23.8 billion rubles for investments, including 7.0 billion rubles for industrial complexes, for the social complex - 16.8 billion rubles.

The state should provide selective support to operating enterprises in the form of subsidies for their products. First of all it is

refers to public sector enterprises. From the point of view of regional economic policy, it is important where such enterprises are located, in what regional situation. Financial support is especially useful when it prevents higher economic and social costs in the region from reduced production, employment, or bankruptcy of the enterprise.

Placing government orders for the supply of products for national needs. The state, as the largest buyer, should strongly influence the utilization of production capacities, employment and income in different regions, implementing certain tasks of regional economic policy. In an economic downturn, it is especially important to provide orders for city-forming enterprises in order to reduce unemployment and other negative socio-economic consequences. Placing a government order can stimulate economic growth in the respective regions and cities.

Organizational, legal, informational support of regions in special areas of activity. The most important is this kind of support for the regions in those types of activities where the capabilities and competence of regional authorities are limited or insufficient. First of all, this is foreign economic activity. The state should provide assistance to the regions in establishing contacts with foreign trade partners and foreign investors, in obtaining international loans and borrowings, in the distribution of regional securities in the world financial markets, in inclusion in international programs and technical assistance projects. As a rule, these forms of international participation of regions are implemented on the basis of agreements concluded by the Government of the Russian Federation; it also acts as a guarantor of loan repayment and project completion.

The above measures taken by the state in modern conditions are predominantly direct in nature. Today, the importance of methods of indirect (indirect) regulation, carried out through financial and tax regulators, supported by regional benefits and economic incentives in various areas of activity, affecting the course of development of the regional economy in Russia, is sharply increasing.

Based on the foregoing, we can say that there is a set of general methods and forms of regulation of the development of regions, with which the state influences their economic functioning. But at the same time, modern domestic and foreign literature provides a set of territorially oriented economic regulators operating in the territory, between themselves and the newly created mechanism for regulating the economy, concerning the attraction of foreign investors, foreign economic activity, the development of free economic zones, large, small and medium-sized businesses.

The system of economic regulators should maintain a balance between social justice and economic feasibility, and should not be formed spontaneously on the territory, as is the case at present, but strictly in accordance with their compatibility and consistency. Each type of area requires

tries to substantiate economically compatible sets of economic regulators and benefits, highlighting in them a block dedicated to the support of certain types of entrepreneurial activity.

The mechanism of territorial development of regions of various types should naturally fit into the emerging system of state regulation of territorial development and be implemented at the federal, interregional, regional and local levels in accordance with the developed strategy for the territorial development of the economy in Russia and the main priority areas of its regional economic and social policy.

In modern domestic and foreign economic literature, there are four blocks of territorially oriented economic regulators that affect the real process of regional development: social, economic, ecological and interethnic.

In the social sphere, these are:

Mechanism for promoting employment of demobilized military personnel, migrants, refugees from neighboring countries and regions of military conflicts, persons leaving the Far North and equivalent areas;

Formation of social funds for the national revival of small peoples and ethnic groups;

Allocation of financial assistance to low-income categories of the population from the fund for social support of the population in specific regions;

Changes in regional coefficients to wages in problem regions.

In the economic sphere:

For old industrial areas:

Exemption from taxation of a part of profits allocated for technical re-equipment and reconstruction of enterprises, conversion of military production and R&D;

Introduction of a preferential system of depreciation deductions;

Subsidizing the costs of retraining workers laid off as a result of rationalizing production, re-profiling enterprises and declaring some of them bankrupt;

Providing tax incentives and insurance guarantees to foreign investors promoting major structural and technological change;

Allocation of preferential government and commercial loans;

Introduction of a competitive contract system;

Implementation of a set of economic incentive measures to support priority areas of entrepreneurship;

For crisis (depressed) regions:

Allocation of state domestic and foreign investments and subventions within the framework of federal and regional programs;

Use of funds from special budgetary and extrabudgetary regional funds;

The use of preferential regional norms of tax deductions (for income tax, VAT and others) in order to increase the financial base of the budgets of problematic or priority regions;

Attracting private domestic and foreign capital, as well as special funds for solving major regional economic problems.

For free economic zones and border areas:

Reduction or cancellation of customs duties, export-import control over goods entering the zone and re-exported from it (in free trade transit zones);

Introduction of preferential trade and customs regimes, preferential financing and taxation, stimulation of foreign investment in the manufacturing sector (in export industrial zones);

Provision of tax, registration incentives and information services for domestic and foreign firms, a special regime for insurance and banking operations, preferential taxation for certain types of income and special lending conditions (in banking and insurance zones);

Supporting implementation firms by insuring commercial loans, promoting domestic developments to the foreign market by lowering the taxation of profits, indexation of depreciation deductions and other measures to influence the economic situation (in technological zones);

For regions in extreme situations:

Granting the right to enterprises to freely sell a certain share of products (oil, gas, gold, diamonds) on the world market;

Increase in the share of foreign exchange earnings left in the regions (Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, etc.);

Use of special regional funds and federal programs for the development of regions;

The mechanism of guarantees against political risks in the form of collateral in areas with an unstable situation;

Sanctions against regions that have stopped transferring funds to the republican budget of the Russian Federation (termination of financing of all federal expenditures in the territory, termination of customs clearance of all foreign trade goods, revocation of previously issued quotas and licenses for the export of strategic raw materials, termination of the issuance of centralized loans) will have a negative impact on economic activity in the regions.

In the environmental field:

Introduction of territorially differentiated payments for land use in urban and rural areas, resort areas;

Implementation of the state program for land monitoring, creation of a multi-level forecasting system for the elimination of negative environmental processes (financial

funding from the federal budget and funds from the collection of land payments);

Granting the preemptive right to conclude contracts and obtain licenses for the use of renewable natural resources to clan communities, families of individual representatives of the indigenous peoples of the North in places of their traditional residence;

Creation of a special regime of residence in areas of ecological disaster;

Introduction of preferential conditions for the privatization of environmental protection facilities;

In the field of national and interethnic relations:

Providing concessional loans and the possibility of purchasing housing for “repressed peoples” and displaced persons as a result of interethnic conflicts;

Reducing the rates of payment for loans aimed at enhancing the development of farms, employment of migrants, refugees from areas of military conflicts, neighboring countries and victims of repression;

Promotion of free privatization of objects and territories of traditional forms of management of indigenous peoples.

The above system of territorially-oriented methods of regulating the economic development of the country's regions differs from the previous ones in a more specific focus on achieving a particular goal, taking into account the specifics of a particular region. Based on this, we can say that before using this or that method to a specific region, a thorough multifaceted study and identification of its features are necessary.

In addition to the above methods, in modern conditions, program-targeted methods of state regulation of territorial development are gaining increasing popularity and applicability in domestic economic practice.

The use of program-targeted methods is caused, on the one hand, by the impossibility of solving one or another large interregional or intersectoral problem using traditional methods, and, on the other hand, by the need to link goals (sub-goals), multi-purpose resources and a large number of performers.

The solution of large-scale intersectoral (sectoral) and regional problems, as a rule, is associated with the development and implementation of federal target programs, which should be considered as one of the means of the structural and regional policy of the state.

Target-programmed methods of regulating the socio-economic development of the country's regions are an effective tool in the hands of state authorities in solving one or another important task of regulating it.

Thus, the above set of methods and forms of regulation of the socio-economic development of the region includes a large number of specific measures and methods for solving certain problems in the process of management.

development of the region. At present, in our opinion, it is necessary to fully study all the factors affecting the efficiency of using each of them for the creation and development of an effective mechanism for regulating regional development.

Alikberli M.M .. Gadzhiev M.M .. Naurkhanov H.Ya.

The place and role of investment in the simplest models of economic growth

The effective development of the industrial complex implies a systematic increase in the technical and technological level of the enterprise, as a result of the requirements generated by both the internal and external environment. Striving for leadership, enterprises introduce new technologies and equipment, improve the existing technical and technological potential, in order to increase competitiveness and create prerequisites for sustainable development. This process is systemic and requires a well-functioning mechanism for financing capital investments. The development of the financial market significantly expands and diversifies the sources of funds: along with internal investments, there is a real opportunity to attract external funds. Thus, significant capital investments are made by attracting funds from both domestic and foreign investors, represented by the state, investment companies, banks, entrepreneurs, and so on.

Attracted investments aimed at developing the technical and economic potential lead to an increase in the efficiency of capital investments. But, the higher the return on invested capital, the more opportunities for enterprises to radically re-equip, intensify processes and, as a result, achieve diversification goals.

Any business can be viewed as an interconnected system of movement of financial resources caused by management decisions. It follows from this that since entrepreneurial activity is based on advancing capital by investing and reinvesting it at all stages of the life cycle of an enterprise, insofar as the efficiency of enterprises is associated with the management, assessment and analysis of the effectiveness of investments.

The construction of most models of economic growth is based on the separation of individual factors from the economic environment and determination of the degree of their influence on the results of the functioning of the economy. Despite the generalization and simplification of economic models, they make it possible to determine the main trends in the dynamics of economic development, to highlight the key factors influencing the specified dynamics, and also to assess the nature of the impact of these factors.

It seems appropriate to consider the main models of economic growth.

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Introduction

Forecasting is central to decision-making procedures. Forecasting is an anticipatory view of reality. It is a kind of human intellectual activity, one of the functions of human consciousness. The main reason that prompts a person to engage in forecasting is that there are phenomena, the future of which he does not know, but this future is important for the decisions he makes at the present time. Therefore, a person seeks to mentally penetrate into this future. The future situation is more or less uncertain. And it is natural for a person to strive to reduce the level of this uncertainty.

Forecasting should precede the definition of goals, not only in methodological terms, but also in the organization of the management process. Scientifically based forecasting is now extremely important not only on the scale of the entire economy, but also of every enterprise.

Socio-economic foresight of the main directions of social development presupposes the use of special computational and logical methods that allow determining the parameters of the functioning of individual elements of the productive forces in their interconnection and interdependence. Systematized scientifically grounded forecasting of the development of socio-economic processes on the basis of specialized ones is carried out from the 1st half. 1950s, although some forecasting techniques were known earlier.

In the development of the methodology for forecasting socio-economic processes, the scientific developments of domestic and foreign scientists A.G. Aganbegyan, I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, L. Klein, V. Goldberg. The works of these scientists consider the meaning, essence and functions of forecasting, its role and place in the planning system, explore the issues of methodology and organization of economic forecasting, show the features of scientific forecasting. The development of works covering forecasting issues is carried out in the following main areas: deepening the theoretical and applied development of several groups of techniques that meet the requirements of different objects and different types of forecasting work; development and implementation in practice of special methods and procedures for the use of various methodological techniques in the course of a specific forecast research; search for ways and means of algorithmic forecasting techniques and their implementation using computer technology.

The aim of this work is to study the methods of socio-economic forecasting.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following work tasks:

1) to reveal the concept and essence of methods of socio-economic forecasting;

2) identify the types of methods of socio-economic forecasting;

3) analyze the application of methods of socio-economic forecasting in practice (on the example of the application of one of the methods in a specific study).

The object of the research is a set of methods of socio-economic forecasting.

The subject of the research is the process of applying methods of socio-economic forecasting.

The research methodology was based on the provisions of management theory. The work used scientific works in the field of organization theory, enterprise management, information and communication management, and other branches of knowledge.

Structurally, the work consists of an introduction, which substantiates the relevance of the study, outlines its goal and objectives; two chapters of the main part, divided into paragraphs, in which the above tasks of the work are consistently solved; conclusion, which summarizes the research and outlines some possible directions for further development of the topic. The work ends with a bibliographic list and an appendix.

Chapter 1. The essence of methods of socio-economic forecasting

1.1 Concept, essence, principles and functions of forecasting

A forecast is understood as a scientifically grounded judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and the timing of their achievement. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting. Forecasting is a special scientific study of processes, phenomena, as a result of which, from the already known information about the past and present of the investigated object, they get an idea of its possible future state. Each forecast is designed to accelerate the development of the organization in the desired direction and avoid unwanted results. "Forecast as new knowledge includes, on the one hand, knowledge about the properties of objects that exist in reality, observed or unobservable during the forecasting period, and on the other hand, knowledge about the properties of objects that actually do not exist during the forecasting period" 1 Basovsky L.Ye. ... Forecasting and planning in market conditions Uch. pos. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 2002. - S. 9.. The forecast creates an ideal image, model, description of probable processes, events. In the scientific literature, there are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The most widespread was the point of view of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, who proceeds from the assumption that the forecast does not provide for solving the problems of the future. Its task is different: to contribute to the scientific justification of plans and decisions. Forecasting presumably characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned action program Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Search social forecasting: Prospective problems of society (Experience of systematization). - M .: Delo, 1994. - S. 126..

Some authors do not particularly find it difficult to define the essence of forecasting in the sense that they do not separate it from foresight and planning. There is a rational moment in this reasoning, since planning to a certain extent is also forecasting, but not vice versa.

Clarification of the essence of forecasting is inextricably linked, as noted in the literature, with the need to "develop a specific predictive system of concepts", including "the correct definition of the concept of" forecast "and its delimitation from concepts such as foresight, prediction, plan, program, project, expectation , hypothesis, hypothesis "Zhukovsky OI. Information Technology. - Tomsk: TSU, 2003 .-- P. 29.

Forecasting is not prescriptive. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and the choice of planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another way of development in the future, and the plan expresses a decision about which of the possibilities the society implements.

The general logical sequence of the most important forecast development operations is reduced to the following main stages: pre-forecast orientation (research program and specification of the forecast task); construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object using the methods of system analysis; collection of forecast background data (for example, economic development, social tension in society, human well-being, etc.); building a series of preliminary search models using search analysis methods; building a series of normative models; assessment of the reliability and accuracy of the forecast; development of recommendations for decision-making; analysis of the prepared forecast.

The purpose of forecasting is to create scientific prerequisites, including scientific analysis of economic development trends; variant foresight of the upcoming development of social reproduction, taking into account both the prevailing tendencies and the intended goals; assessment of the possible consequences of the decisions taken; substantiation of the directions of socio-economic and scientific and technical development for making management decisions. Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of measures aimed at accelerating scientific and technological progress: Methodological recommendations and comments on their application. - M .: Informelectro, 1989. - S. 56..

Socio-economic forecasting is based on the following principles: consistency, scientific validity, adequacy, alternativeness, purposefulness.

The principle of systematic forecasting involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns in economic systems, the construction of such a logical chain of research, according to which the process of developing and justifying any decision is based on the determination of the overall goal of the system and subordination to the achievement of this goal of the activities of all subsystems included in it. "At the same time, this system is considered as part of a larger system, also consisting of a certain number of subsystems" Big Economic Dictionary / Ed. A.N. Azrilian. - 2nd ed., Rev. and add. - M .: Institute of a new economy, 1997. - S. 816..

Let's look at an example of how the principle of consistency in forecasting is implemented.

For example, you need to develop a strategy for the development of a large trading enterprise. For this, a forecast of the activities of both this enterprise and its competitors is carried out. At the first stage of forecasting the development of the retail network, the available capacities and the existing supply of retail space to consumers are taken into account. Both the currently existing data and the forecast of the number of consumers for the period for which it is required to draw up a strategy are taken into account. The planned volume of trade, trends in the structure of the city's population and consumer groups, and the introduction of progressive forms of service are taken into account. Naturally, taking into account such a large number of factors most often leads to the choice of extrapolation volumes of trade for the forecast period.

The process of coordinating the consumer interests of the population and the interests of manufacturers and sellers is organized as a process of forming reference vectors for the development of industries. Let us explain this. With the help of system analysis and one of its practical applications - the normative system of indicators of efficiency and quality of economic activity - expert estimates of the ratio of the movement of indicators of the enterprise's activity according to the rate of growth (for a year, for five years) are developed, which makes it possible to order (rank) them and interpret the resulting ranking as one of the economic development strategies of the enterprise, in particular, one that could reorient the industry in the direction most favorable to consumers.

The construction of a normative system of quality and efficiency indicators - in other words, a reference vector for the development of an enterprise - is based on existing statistics. The normative system of indicators is a qualitatively new procedure for processing known data, since the reference vector of enterprise development reflects, according to the criterion of the diversity of products and services of the enterprise, in the social sense, the best implementation of the functions of the enterprise.

The assessment of the attainability of the proposed reference vector of enterprise development is carried out according to the indicators of rank correlation of deviations and inversions of the actual order of movement of indicators from the reference indicator. Of course, in order to eliminate the lag of the enterprise operating mode from the reference one, i.e. in order to build a reference vector for the development of an enterprise (it must also satisfy the criteria of diversity, accessibility, significance and acceptability) and thus describe the economic strategy for the development of an enterprise, it is necessary to repeatedly construct an intermediate vector from the start of the forecast to the estimated date of Gaidaenko T.A. Marketing management. Complete MBA course. Principles of management decisions and Russian practice. - M .: Eksmo, 2005 .-- S. 390.

The problem of implementing intermediate vectors is primarily associated with the practice of forecasting and planning the structure of trade. For example, the volume of food and non-food products and the most important types of these products are planned. If in the planning procedure the volumes of turnover associated with the forms of service (for example, the volume of turnover for orders) will be introduced without fail, this will cause a different policy for entering retail space, changing the number of stores and the number of employees at the enterprise. In this case, using intermediate vectors, it will be possible to calculate various combinations of changes in the growth rates of indicators and their relationship with other indicators. Intermediate vectors will become elements of preplanned developments Koptelov A.I. Methods for improving the sales process // Financial newspaper. - 2008. - No. 51. - S. 11-12. ...

The construction of intermediate vectors at various time points of the long-term forecast indicates the strategy for reorganizing the activities of the subsystem, including the strategy for the distribution of capital investments Kovalev V.V. Financial analysis: methods and procedures. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2005 .-- S. 324-325. ...

The principle of scientific validity means that in socio-economic forecasts of all levels, a comprehensive account of the requirements of objective economic laws should be based on the use of scientific tools, in-depth study of the achievements of domestic and foreign experience in making forecasts.

The principle of the adequacy of the forecast to objective laws characterizes not only the process of identifying, but also the assessment of stable trends and relationships in the development of the economy and the creation of a theoretical analogue of real economic processes with their complete and accurate imitation. The implementation of the principle of adequacy involves taking into account the probabilistic, stochastic nature of real processes. This means the need to assess both the prevailing deviations and those that may take place, as well as the prevailing trends; determination of the possible area of their discrepancy, i.e. assessment of the likelihood of the identified trend.

The principle of alternative forecasting is associated with the possibility of developing an enterprise and its individual links along different trajectories, with different relationships and structural relationships. In the transition from the imitation of the existing processes and tendencies to the prediction of their future development, it becomes necessary to build alternatives, i.e. determining one of two or more possible, and often opposite, mutually exclusive ways of economic development.

The principle of purposefulness predetermines the active nature of forecasting, since the content of the forecast is not limited to foresight, but also includes the goals that are to be achieved in the economy through active actions of state authorities and administration.

The main functions of forecasting are: scientific analysis of economic, social, scientific and technical processes and trends; study of objective relationships of socio-economic phenomena of economic development in specific conditions in a certain period; assessment of the forecasting object; identification of objective alternatives to economic and social development; accumulation of scientific material for a reasonable choice of certain decisions Svetunkov S.G. Quantitative methods for forecasting the evolutionary components of economic dynamics. - Ulyanovsk: UlGU Publishing House, 1999. - P. 21. Let's consider some of the functions in more detail.

Scientific analysis is carried out in three stages, or stages: retrospection, diagnosis, prospectus. Retrospection is understood as the stage of forecasting, at which the history of the development of the forecasting object is investigated in order to obtain its systematized description. At the stage of retrospection, the collection, storage and processing of information, sources necessary for forecasting, optimization of both the composition of sources and methods of measuring and providing retrospective information, clarification and final formation of the structure and composition of the characteristics of the forecasting object Vasilyeva O. The role of information management systems in activities campaigns // Financial newspaper. Regional release. - 2008. - No. 35. - S. 5-7. ... Diagnosis is the stage of forecasting, at which a systematized description of the forecasting object is investigated in order to identify the trend of its development and the choice of models and forecasting methods. At the stage of diagnosis, the forecasting object is analyzed, which underlies the forecasting model. This analysis ends not only with the development of a forecasting model, but also with the choice of an adequate forecasting method. Prospection is the stage of forecasting, at which, according to the diagnosis, forecasts of the development of the forecast object in the future are developed, the reliability, accuracy or validity of the forecast is assessed (verification), as well as the implementation of the forecast goal by combining specific forecasts based on forecasting principles (synthesis). At the prospecting stage, the missing information about the predicted object is revealed, the previously received information is clarified, corrections are made to the model of the predicted object in accordance with the newly received information G.V. Savitskaya. Analysis of the economic activity of the enterprise: Textbook. allowance. - M .: INFRA-M, 2007 .-- S. 89.

The study of the objective relationships of socio-economic phenomena is carried out in the process of developing a mechanism for the use of economic laws, which are a reflection of significant cause-and-effect relationships of phenomena that express their recurrence in certain conditions. At the same time, when forecasting, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty caused by the probabilistic effect of economic laws, the incompleteness of their knowledge, the presence of a subjective factor in making planning decisions, imperfection and insufficient reliability of information.

Assessment of the predicted object is based on a combination of aspects of determinism and uncertainty. Determinism is a philosophical concept that recognizes the objective regularity and causality of all phenomena of nature and society. To determine is to define, to condition. With absolute determinism, the possibility of an alternative choice of solutions disappears. With absolute uncertainty, a concrete vision of the future is impossible. Therefore, in the absence of one of the aspects, forecasting loses its meaning Orlov A.I. Decision making theory. Textbook. - M .: Examination, 2006 .-- S. 102-103. ...

The identification of objective alternatives of the process under study and the trends of its development in the future presupposes the need to choose between mutually exclusive possibilities. It is necessary to put economic and social processes under control, to determine, in accordance with the set long-term goals, the optimal proportions for a long period.

The implementation of forecasting functions makes it possible to determine general and specific approaches that make up its scientific basis. The following general scientific approaches are used in forecasting: historical and complex. The historical approach is to consider each phenomenon and process in the relationship of its historical forms. In the process of forecasting, one should proceed from the fact that the current state of the object under study is a natural result of its previous development, and the future is a natural result of its development in the past and present. An integrated approach involves considering the object of research in its connection and dependence with other processes and phenomena. Within its framework, genetic (research, search) and normative (target) approaches are distinguished as specific.

With the genetic approach, the ultimate goal is to determine the possible states of the predicted object in the future, taking into account the preservation of the existing development trends of this object. This does not take into account the conditions that can change these trends.

With the normative approach, it is taken as a goal to determine the ways and timing of achieving the possible state of the forecasting object in the future. Possible ways of changing the trend are investigated and predicted due to the intensification of production, changes in its structure, the dynamics of economic indicators, labor productivity, etc. Both of these approaches are interconnected, mutually complement each other and, as a rule, are used in combination, providing a comprehensive study of the predicted phenomenon or process. Management: Textbook / Ed. V.V. Tomilova. - M .: Yurayt-Izdat, 2003 .-- S. 123.

The role of forecasting in the management of a country, industry, region, enterprise is obvious. We need to take into account STEP factors (social, technological, economic, political), factors of the competitive environment and scientific and technological progress; forecasting the costs and incomes of enterprises and society as a whole (in accordance with the product life cycle - in time and according to 11 stages of the international standard ISO 9004 D.V. Korolev Role of ISO 9001: 2000 in increasing the efficiency of a modern organization // Lawyer. - 2005. - No. 12. - S. 23-24.). The problems of implementation and practical use of mathematical methods of econometric forecasting are associated primarily with the lack of sufficient experience in such studies in our country, since for decades planning was given priority over forecasting Gavrilets Yu.N. Socio-economic planning: Systems and models. - M .: Economics, 1974 .-- S. 21-22. ...

So, forecasting is making a forecast of the development, formation, spread of something (for example, science, industry, process, relations, etc.) based on the study of carefully selected data. In the problem of forecasting, two aspects are distinguished: theoretical and cognitive, implying a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to problems of the future, and managerial, involving the use of information about the future when making decisions.

1.2 Methods of socio-economic forecasting: concept and system

As has been generally accepted since the time of the founder of scientific management, Henri Fayol, forecasting and planning are the basis of the work of a manager Maital S. Economics for managers: ten important tools for leaders. Per. from English - M .: Delo, 1996. - S. 55.. The essence of econometric forecasting is the description and analysis of future development, as opposed to planning, in which the future movement is specified in a directive manner. For example, the forecaster's conclusion may be that in an hour we can walk no more than 5 km from point A, and the planner's indication is that in an hour it is necessary to be at point B. It is clear that if the distance between A and B is not more than 5 km, then the plan is realistic (feasible), and if more than 10 km, it cannot be carried out under the given conditions. It is necessary either to abandon the unrealistic plan, or to switch to other conditions for its implementation, for example, to move not on foot, but by car. The considered example demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of forecasting methods. Namely, these methods can be successfully applied under the condition of some stability in the development of the situation and refuse in case of abrupt changes.

The method of science is understood as a set of techniques, means, principles and rules, with the help of which the student comprehends the subject, receives new knowledge. The method is an approach to the studied phenomena, objects and processes, a systematic way of scientific knowledge and the establishment of truth. As the English historian and sociologist G. Bockle noted, "in all the higher branches of knowledge, the greatest difficulty is not the discovery of facts, but the discovery of the correct method according to which laws and facts can be established." Quoted from: M. Krivich, O. Holgin Workshops of Science. - M .: Institute of State and Law of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1988. - P. 45.

The teaching about the methods themselves, about their classification and effective application, the theoretical substantiation of the methods of cognition of the surrounding reality used in science is usually called methodology. The term "methodology" is made up of two Greek words: "method" (path to something) and "logos" (science, teaching). Thus, literally "methodology" is a teaching about the methods of cognition. The term "methodology" refers to the system of all those methods that are applied by this science.

If the concept of an object is connected with the question of what phenomena are studied by science, then the concept of a method is how exactly they are studied. There is a very rigid connection between the subject and the method. The method is predetermined by the characteristics of the subject.

According to estimates of domestic and foreign scientists, there are currently over 200 forecasting methods Arzhenovskiy S.V. Methods of socio-economic forecasting. Tutorial. - M .: Dashkov and K, Nauka-Spektr, 2008 .-- S. 23-24. , however, the number of basic ones is much less (15-20) Materials of the site www.e-staff.ru. ... Many of these methods relate rather to separate techniques and procedures that take into account the nuances of the predicted object. Others are a set of individual techniques that differ from the basic ones or from each other in the number of private techniques and the sequence of their application.

In existing sources, various classification principles of forecasting methods are presented Orlov A.I. Econometrics. Textbook. - M .: Publishing house "Exam", 2002. - S. 88-89; Pisareva O.M. Methods for forecasting the development of socio-economic systems. - M .: Higher school, 2007. - S. 122-123; Applied forecasting of the national economy: textbook / ed. V.V. Ivantera, I.A. Budanova, A.G. Korovkina, V.S. Sutyagin. - M .: Publishing house "Economist", 2007. - S. 289-290; Savinov G.V., Svetunkov S.G. Complex variables in economic analysis and modeling // Bulletin of the St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance. - 2006. - No. 4. - S. 22-23. ... One of the most important classification features of forecasting methods is the degree of formalization, which quite fully covers forecasting methods. The second classification criterion can be called the general principle of the forecasting methods, the third is the method of obtaining forecast information. In fig. 1 in the appendix to this work presents the classification scheme of forecasting methods.

As shown by the diagram shown in Fig. 1, according to the degree of formalization (according to the first classification criterion), methods of economic forecasting can be divided into intuitive and formalized.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished by Sidelnikov Yu.V. Theory and organization of expert forecasting. - M .: IMEMO AN SSSR, 1990 .-- P. 12..

The group of formalized methods includes two subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. The second - structural, network and matrix modeling The theory of the function of a complex variable in economic and mathematical modeling. Materials of the All-Russian Scientific Seminar. December 19, 2005 / Ed. prof. S.G. Svetunkova. - SPb .: Publishing house of SPbGUEF, 2006 .-- P. 199.

Constructive classification (the second classification feature) allows you to visually depict a set of forecasting methods in the form of a hierarchical tree and characterize each level with its own classification feature (Fig. 2 in the appendix to this work).

At the first level, all methods on the basis of "informational basis of the method" are divided into three classes: factual, combined and expert.

Factographic are based on factual information about the predicted object and its past development. Expert methods use information provided by expert experts in the process of systematized procedures for identifying and summarizing their opinions. In turn, the classes of expert and factual methods are subdivided into subclasses according to information processing methods. Combined information combines the named types of information.

Expert methods are divided into two subclasses. Direct expert assessments are based on the principle of obtaining and processing an independent generalized opinion of a team of experts (or one of them) without influencing the opinion of each expert by the opinion of another expert and the entire team. Expert assessments with feedback in one form or another implement the principle of feedback based on the impact on the assessment of an expert group (one expert) by opinions received earlier from this group (or from one of the experts).

The class of factual methods comprises the following three subclasses: analogy methods, leading methods, and statistical methods.

Analogy methods are aimed at identifying similarities in the patterns of development of various processes. These include methods of mathematical and historical analogies. Methods of mathematical analogies as an analogue for an object use objects of a different physical nature, other areas of science and technology, which have a mathematical description of the development process, coinciding with the object of forecasting.

Advanced forecasting methods are based on certain principles of special processing of scientific and technical information, taking into account its ability to outstrip the progress of science and technology. These include methods for studying the dynamics of scientific and technical information, using the construction of time series based on various types of such information, analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding object (for example, the envelope method). Advanced methods can also include methods of research and assessment of the state of the art, based on the use of special methods of analysis of quantitative and qualitative scientific and technical information to determine the characteristics of the quality level of existing and projected technology.

Statistical methods are a set of methods for processing quantitative information about the predicted object, combined according to the principle of identifying the mathematical regularities of changes in the characteristics of this object contained in it in order to obtain predictive models T.A. Dubrova. Statistical forecasting methods in the economy. - M .: Moscow International Institute of Econometrics, Informatics, Finance and Law, 2003. - P. 9-10. ...

The difficulty of choosing the most effective method of socio-economic forecasting is to determine the classification of methods for predicting the characteristics of each method, the list of requirements for retrospective information and forecast background. In this regard, it becomes necessary to dwell in more detail on the main classes of methods of socio-economic forecasting.

In cases of extreme complexity of the system, its novelty, uncertainty in the formation of some essential features, insufficient completeness of information, and finally, the impossibility of complete mathematical formalization of the process of solving the problem, one has to refer to the recommendations of competent specialists. Their solution to the problem, argumentation, approach, formation of quantitative assessments of results, processing of the latter by formal methods are called the method of expert assessments. This method includes three components: intuitive-logical analysis of the task or its fragment; decision and issuance of quantitative or qualitative characteristics (assessment, decision result); processing of decision results - received from experts - estimates.

One of the varieties of the method of expert assessments is the method of collective idea generation ("brainstorming"), which allows one to determine possible options for the development of the predicted object in a short period of time. Methods of "brainstorming" can be classified according to the presence or absence of feedback between the leader and the participants in the "brainstorming" in the process of solving a problem situation. The resulting situation required the development of a “brainstorming” method - destructive related assessment (DET), capable of qualitatively and fairly quickly assessing options, without limiting their number. The essence of this method lies in the actualization of the creative potential of specialists during the "brainstorming" of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas with the formation of counter-trips. The method of collective idea generation has been tested in practice and allows you to find a group solution when determining possible options for the development of the forecasting object, excluding the path of compromises, when a common opinion cannot be considered the result of an impartial analysis of the problem.

1970-1980 separate methods have been created that allow, to a certain extent, organize the statistical processing of the opinions of expert experts and achieve a more or less agreed opinion. The Delphi method is one of the most widespread methods of expert assessment of the future, that is, expert forecasting. This method was developed by the American research corporation RAND and is used to determine and assess the likelihood of certain events. The Delphi method is built on the following principle: in imprecise sciences, expert opinions and subjective judgments, by necessity, must replace the exact laws of causality reflected by the natural sciences. The Delphi method allows you to summarize the opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion. All the shortcomings of forecasts based on expert assessments are inherent in it. However, the work carried out by the RAND Corporation to improve this system has significantly increased the flexibility, speed and accuracy of forecasting. The Delphi method is characterized by three features that distinguish it from the usual methods of group interaction of experts: a) anonymity of experts; b) using the results of the previous round of the survey; C) the statistical characteristics of the group response.

Anonymity lies in the fact that during the expert assessment of the predicted phenomenon, the object, the members of the expert group are unknown to each other. At the same time, the interaction of group members when filling out the questionnaires is completely eliminated. As a result of such a statement, the author of the answer may change his opinion without a public announcement about it.

The statistical characteristics of the group response involves the processing of the results obtained using the following measurement methods: ranking, pairwise comparison, sequential comparison and direct assessment.

In the development of the Delphi method, cross-correction is applied. The future event is presented as a huge set of interconnected and transitioning paths of development. With the introduction of cross-correlation, the value of each event due to the introduced certain relationships will change either in a positive or negative direction, thereby adjusting the probabilities of the events in question. For the purpose of future correspondence of the model to real conditions, elements of randomness can be introduced into the model. The disadvantage of this method is that the problem of correlating scientific and technical shifts is very difficult, since in real life the magnitude of the correlation is very difficult to measure, the correlations are fuzzy and vary widely depending on the achievements under consideration.

And, finally, the third classification criterion is the way of obtaining information. As seen from Fig. 1 (see Appendix), on this basis, forecasting methods are divided into: interviews, analytical, scenario building, idea generation, etc.

The “interview” method allows the expert to carry out direct contact with the specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, poses questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object.

The analytical method allows you to carry out a logical analysis of any predicted situation and present it in the form of an analytical note. It involves the independent work of an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object.

The method for generating ideas has already been discussed in sufficient detail above.

A specific forecasting method is scenario forecast - it is a kind of method for describing a logically sequential process, an event based on the current situation. Scenarios are described taking into account time estimates. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general development goal of the predicted object or phenomenon and formulate criteria for assessing the upper levels of the “goal tree”. Scenarios are usually developed on the basis of preliminary forecast data and initial materials for the development of the forecast object. The initial materials should include technical and economic characteristics and indicators of the main processes of the production and scientific base for solving this goal. A scenario is a picture that displays a consistent detailed solution to a problem, identifying possible obstacles, and detecting serious shortcomings in order to prejudge the question of a possible termination of started or completion of work on the predicted object. The scenario according to which a forecast of the development of an object or processes should be drawn up should contain issues of development not only of science and technology, but also of the economy, foreign and domestic policy. Therefore, scenarios should be developed by highly qualified specialists of the appropriate profile of the predicted object. By its descriptiveness, the script is an accumulator of initial information, on the basis of which all work on the development of the predicted object should be built. Therefore, the finished script must be thoroughly analyzed.

In the studied literature Economic strategy of the firm / Proc. manual ed. A.P. Gradova. - SPb .: Publishing house of JSC "SPb Orchestra", 2008. - S. 456-457. a significant number of classification schemes for forecasting methods are presented. Above, only a few of them were considered. The main error of such schemes is a violation of the principles of classification, which include: sufficient coverage of forecasting methods, the unity of the classification feature at each level of division (with multilevel classification), the non-intersection of classification sections, the openness of the classification scheme (i.e. the possibility of supplementing with new methods) ...

In general, we can conclude that in the process of systematized scientifically grounded forecasting of the development of socio-economic processes, the forecasting methodology was developed as a set of methods, techniques and ways of thinking, allowing, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous and endogenous relationships of the forecasting object, and also their measurements within the framework of the considered phenomenon or process to derive judgments of a certain certainty regarding its future development.

Chapter 2. Using methods of socio-economic forecasting on the example of the extrapolation method

2.1 Features of the extrapolation method

The simplest methods for recovering dependencies used for forecasting are based on a given time series, i.e. a function defined at a finite number of points on the time axis. In this case, the time series is often considered within the framework of a probabilistic model, other factors (independent variables) are introduced, in addition to time, for example, the volume of money supply (aggregate M2) Sorokina E.M. Analysis of organizational flows // Economic analysis: theory and practice. - 2004. - No. 17. - S. 6.. A time series can be multidimensional, i.e. the number of responses (dependent variables) can be more than one. The main tasks to be solved are interpolation and extrapolation.

The essence of predictive extrapolation methods is to study the dynamics of changes in a socio-economic phenomenon in the pre-forecast period and transfer the found pattern to a certain period of the future. Extrapolation sequence:

A clear definition of the task, hypotheses about the possible development of the predicted object, consideration of factors stimulating or hindering the development of this object, determination of the necessary extrapolation and its permissible range;

Selection of a system of parameters, unification of various units of measurement related to each parameter separately;

Collection and systematization of data, checking their homogeneity and comparability;

Identification of trends or symptoms of changes in the studied values in the course of statistical analysis and direct extrapolation of data.

A prerequisite for the application of the extrapolation approach in forecasting should be considered knowledge and an objective understanding of the nature of the process under study, as well as the presence of stable trends in the development mechanism.

However, the degree of reality of this kind of forecasts and, accordingly, the measure of confidence in them is largely determined by the argumentation of the choice of the extrapolation limits and the stability of the correspondence of the "gauges" in relation to the essence of the phenomenon under consideration. It should be noted that complex objects, as a rule, cannot be characterized by one parameter.

The extrapolation operation in general can be represented as the determination of the values of a function. The simplest forecasting method is considered to be an approach that forms a forecast estimate from the actually achieved level using the average growth or growth rate. In accordance with it, the forecast for steps forward at a point in time.

where d is the average absolute growth

This method has certain advantages, including the insignificant complexity of the computational algorithm, universal computational schemes.

In addition to these advantages, it has several significant disadvantages.

Firstly, all factual observations are the result of regularity and chance, therefore, it is inappropriate to rely on the last observation.

Secondly, there is no way to assess the legitimacy of using the average gain in each specific case.

Thirdly, this approach does not allow to form an interval in which the predicted value falls. In this regard, the extrapolation method does not give accurate results for a long-term forecast, because this method proceeds from the past and the present, and thus the error accumulates. This method gives positive results for the short term forecasting of certain objects - for 5-7 years.

Various techniques are used to improve the accuracy of extrapolation. One of them consists, for example, in correcting the extrapolated part of the general development curve (trend) taking into account the real experience of the development of an industry-analogue of research or an object that is ahead of the predicted object in its development.

When extrapolating, the following methods are used: least squares and its modifications; exponential smoothing, moving average, etc. The most commonly used method of least squares with several factors (2-5) Svetunkov S.G. Fundamentals of the theory of econometrics of complex variables. - SPb .: Publishing house of SPbGUEF, 2008. - S. 56-57. ... Least modulus and other extrapolation techniques are less commonly used, although their statistical properties are often better.

So, the extrapolation method consists in the application of the development trend of the economic process determined for the base period to the forecast period, it is based on the preservation of the prevailing conditions for the development of the process in the future. When using this method, it is necessary to have information about the stability of the development trends of the object for a period 2-3 times longer than the forecasting period.

2.2 Application of the extrapolation method on the example of predicting the crime rate

Suppose there is a dynamic series of indicators of crime k for a particular region from 2002 to 2008, shown in the figure. The task is to determine the pattern of changes in this series. Novichkov V. Features of complex forecasting in the field of combating crime // Criminal Law. - 2003. - No. 2. - S. 67..

For the convenience of registration of the calculation, it is proposed to enter all the values obtained in the table. one.

Table 1. Calculation algorithm

Here n is the number of members of the series;

T - calendar year;

t is the value of the real time scale, which is calculated by the formula t = T n - T 0, for our example T 0 = 2002;

X is the value of the conventional time scale, which is calculated by the formula X = t - (n + 1) / 2; k f - the actual expression of the state of the indicator;

k p is the estimated state of the indicator (trend);

e i - the difference between the actual state and the calculated one, which is calculated by the formula e i = k f - k p; e is the deviation value.

Suppose that the considered values of the indicator "fluctuate" around some straight line, the analytical expression of which is:

k p = a + b t (1),

where k p - the estimated state of the indicator k; a, b - unknown trend indicators (constant values for a particular trend); t is the value of the time indicator.

The task is to determine the unknown values of a and b in expression (1) from the available values of the index k f for seven years. To simplify finding the values a and b, the time report has been moved to the middle of the billing period, that is, the real time scale t is replaced by the conventional time scale X. Then

Substituting taken from the table. 1 values of quantities

into formulas (2) and (3), we obtain the values of parameters a and b, i.e. parameters of a straight line expressing the trend of the series: a = 6 and b = 0.5. The found expressions a and b will be included in expression (1) and we will receive the trend equation: k p = 6 + 0.5X. Of course, it is more familiar and more convenient to use the real time scale, so we replace the argument X with the argument t. For our case, X = t - 4. We have k p = 6 + 0.5 (t - 4) = 6 + 0.5t - 2 = 4 + 0.5t. Since for our example t = T n - 2002, we finally get k p = 4 + 0.5 (T n - 2002).

The resulting model of the change in k p has, however, one drawback: using it as a forecasting tool, we get average values around which the actual values of the (real) indicator k will fluctuate. Therefore, it is necessary to know the confidence interval in which the values of the predicted indicators k will be found with varying degrees of probability.

The first step in calculating confidence intervals is to determine the value of the standard deviation over time.

The standard deviation is determined by the formula

where e i is the difference between the actual and calculated value of k,

e i = k f - k p.

For our example

The next step to determine the confidence interval is to determine the value of the deviation e, which is determined by the formula

...

Strategic planning of regional development.

A strategic development plan for a region is a management document that contains an interrelated description of various aspects of regional development activities.

The preparation of such a document provides for:

setting goals for the development of the region;
determination of ways to achieve the set goals;
analysis of potential opportunities, the implementation of which will make it possible to achieve success;
development of methods for organizing traffic for selected
directions;
substantiation of rational ways of using resources.

The strategic plan for the socio-economic development of the region is an indicative document that allows the administration of the region and the regional community to act together. This is not only a document of the administration, but to a greater extent of all subjects of the regional development process, including economic agents and participants in the political process. This is not a directive from above, directed from the regional administration to entrepreneurs and residents of the region, but a guideline developed with the participation of all agents of economic activity. Such a plan provides for balanced and coordinated actions of all actors to solve existing problems. It is a tool for building partnerships, a mechanism for identifying and implementing effective strategic actions in all spheres of life in the region.

The main characteristics of the strategic plan for the socio-economic development of the region include:

highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the regional economy, striving to strengthen, develop, form the competitive advantages of the region with a focus primarily on creating better living conditions for people;
concise ideas and principles that guide producers of goods and services, investors, the administration and the public, helping them to implement decisions based on a vision for future development;
partnership interaction of all regional forces.

A component of the strategic plan for the development of the region should be the administration's action plan attached to it for the implementation of the planned activities.

The stages of developing a strategic plan for the socio-economic development of the region include:

1) an assessment of the achieved level and features of the socio-economic development of the region, which also presupposes an analysis of the regional resource base of this development;

2) elaboration of a concept for the development of the regional economy, elaboration of scenarios for the modernization of the regional economy in order to adapt the latter to the new system of interregional ties and interdependencies;

3) selection and substantiation of directions for the future development of the region.

Definition of "poles" of regional development is the most important task in developing a strategy for the development of the region. The main direction of reforming the economy of most regions at the present stage is a gradual movement towards the formation of a new social order of the post-industrial type based on the use of new technological methods of production in a multi-structured socially oriented economic system with modern characteristics of the quality of life of the population and with an active role of state bodies in regulating the economy.

An important principle for the development of social sectors will be to reduce the pressure of these sectors on the regional budget with a simultaneous increase in funding for these sectors in the budget.

The main components of the strategy of socio-economic development should be:

Pursuing a targeted structural, scientific, technical and investment policy;

Solving social problems while reforming the economy;

Stimulating business activity in the real sector of the economy.

The well-to-do and the poor.

Complex methods of forecasting social and economic development. Methods of socio-economic forecasting. Private forecasts estimate