Fertility in China. Population of India and China: official data and forecasts. Demographic policy of China and India. The problem of food supply

The abbreviation "AR" on all maps means "Autonomous Region".

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The dynamics of the population of the provinces of China in 2000-2015:

1 - Demography of regions of China in 2000-2015.

Table 1 - Change in the population of China in 2000-2015, million people

The population growth rate in China is slowly declining, but it can hardly be assumed that China will face the problem of declining population in the near future. Growth rates in 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 approximately the same - about 2.5% for each period.

Figure 1 - Change in the population of China in 2000-2005,%.

Figure 2 - Change in the population of China in 2005-2010,%.

Figure 3 - Change in the population of China in 2010-2015,%.

It can be noted that, despite the general slight decrease in the rate of population growth in the country, the number of regions with negative growth decreases from six in the period 2000-2005. to only one province (Heilongjiang) in 2010-2015. This may indicate a weakening of migration processes between the provinces.

The highest population growth is observed in the cities of central subordination - Beijing and Tianjin. And also in the Tibetan and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions.

2 - Population density of regions of China in 2015

Table 2 - Density of the population of China in 2015, people for 1 sq. km of territory.

Figure 4 - Density of the population of China in 2000-2015, people for 1 sq. km of territory.

Despite the fact that China is the most populous country in the world, in terms of population density it is significantly inferior to many countries (56th place in 2015). The least populated are the regions bordering Russia and the Tibetan provinces (Tibet and Qinghai).

3 - Urbanization in the provinces of China

Table 3 - The share of the urban population in the provinces of China in 2015,%.

Figure 5 - The share of urban population in the provinces of China in 2000-2015,%.

The urban population in China is just over 50%. It is logical that the largest share of the urban population is in the cities of central subordination (excluding, oddly enough, the city of central subordination Chongqing). The smallest is in Tibet.

4 - Fertility, mortality and natural increase in the provinces of China

Table 4 - Fertility, mortality and population growth in Chinese provinces in 2015, people per 1000 population.

Figure 6 - Natural population growth in Chinese provinces in 2015, people per 1000 population.

With natural growth in the provinces of China, everything is in order. Only in the northeastern provinces - Heilongjiang and Liaoning - negative growth. In contrast, Xinjiang and Tibet show the largest growth rates.

In general, all provinces of China are characterized by a very low mortality rate by Russian standards. Although the birth rate in China is on average lower than the Russian one. But in 2016 its significant growth is noted.

5 - The share of different ages in the population of the provinces of China.

Table 5 - The share of different ages in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015,%.

Figure 7 - The share of children aged 0-14 years in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015,%.

Figure 8 - The share of elderly people aged 65 and over in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015,%.

The smallest proportion of children in Shanghai. Most of the elderly are in Chongqing. More than in other provinces, the proportion of children and the smallest proportion of the elderly are in Tibet.

6 - Literacy of the population of the provinces of China

Table 6 - The share of illiterates in the population of Chinese provinces aged 15 years and older in 2015,%.

Figure 9 - The share of illiterates in the population of Chinese provinces aged 15 years and older in 2015,%.

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At the same time, on Friday, January 20, the State Statistics Office of China (NBS) reported that 17.86 million children were born in the country last year, Interfax reported. Died during the same period 9.77 million people. The population of the People's Republic of China reached 1 billion 382 million in 2016, an increase of 8.09 million over the year.

The number of people of working age (from 16 to 59 years old) is 907.47 million, and the number of citizens of retirement age (60 years and above) is 230.96 million, that is, 16.7% of the total population.

In addition, the male population of the country totals 708.15 million, female - 674.56 million. Thus, there are 100 women for 104.98 men. Chinese experts are concerned that more than 4 million Chinese men will not be able to marry by 2020.

The discrepancy in figures is due to the use of different statistical methods, the BBC notes. The results of the State Committee for Health and Planned Childbirth are based on data from birth certificates in hospitals, while the State Statistics Office's estimates were based on a sample survey.

At the same time, experts previously warned that overpopulation in China could affect Russia. This applies to Eastern Siberia, where the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire have been actively moving in recent years. As the professor of the University of Latvia, orientalist Leon Tivans said in May 2014, due to the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the "Crimean scenario" may repeat itself in the Russian Federation itself in a few decades. Only the Chinese in Eastern Siberia will act as "oppressed": "They will also talk about the majority of the population."

The one family, one child policy was introduced in China in 1979 and has been in effect for many years. China was forced to legislate family size limits in the 1970s when it became apparent that a huge number of the country's inhabitants were lacking resources. With a few exceptions, families were only allowed one child. If this rule was violated, the parents were subject to heavy fines and other serious penalties, up to and including dismissal from the civil service and expulsion from the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

As a result, another serious demographic problem appeared in the country - the aging of the nation. The authorities began to fear that the working Chinese would soon be unable to support the rapidly aging population.

In February 2015, the Chinese authorities acknowledged that although the "one family, one child" program had been relaxed, it did not in any way solve the current problem of population aging. To get out of the situation, Deputy Director of the Family Planning Commission of Shanxi Province and senior member of the People's Political Consultative Council of China Mei Zhiqiang proposed to legislate the obligation to have a second child in the family.

However, this proposal was criticized by journalists. Several publications pointed out that it would be much wiser to provide financial support to young couples who themselves want to have a second child than to force everyone.

As a result, in October 2015, the PRC authorities allowed all residents of the republic to have two children. Wang Feng, an expert on demographic and social changes in China, called the decision of the PRC authorities a "historic event" that will change the world, but at the same time warned that the innovation will not solve the problem of population aging.

The National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC announced on January 19 that the total number of people born in China in 2015 was 16.55 million, down 320,000 from 2014. 2015 was the second year after the introduction by the Chinese authorities of the policy "parents who were the only child in the family can have two children", but the birth rate this year did not increase, but, on the contrary, decreased, contrary to the forecasts of demographers. /site/

Unexpected figures from China's demographic statistics

On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the state of China's national economy and the country's demographic situation, the Chinese media reported. In 2015, the total population of the PRC amounted to 1 billion 374 million 620 thousand people and, compared to last year, increased by 6.8 million. At the same time, the birth rate was 16.55 million people, which is 320 thousand less than in 2014 year.

Since January 2014, each province of the PRC has introduced a new demographic policy: "parents who were the only child in the family have the right to have two children." Earlier forecasts were made that in 2015 the birth rate will continue to grow - up to 17 or even 18 million people. However, in the past year, the birth rate in China did not increase, but, on the contrary, fell, and this caused great bewilderment among many.

Demographers Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang made a joint analysis, which is published in the online publication Caixin. They argue that the decline in fertility is due to two factors. First, the number of women of childbearing age is declining. Secondly, among women of childbearing age, the number of those wishing to give birth is decreasing. The growth in the birth rate, which should be promoted by this demographic policy, is significantly less than the decline caused by the above two factors.

According to the estimates of demographers, the total fertility rate in the PRC is approximately 1.4, which is significantly less than the 2.1 generation change rate, and this is classified as an ultra-low birth rate.

Since January 2016, China has been fully introducing a new policy stating that spouses have the right to have two children without any restrictions.

Two kids' politics was greeted with cool

Demographer Yao Meixiong believes that the decline in fertility in 2015 indicates that, in general, among Chinese people, the desire to have children has waned. If the implementation of the two-child policy does not take a set of measures to stimulate the birth rate, then there is a possibility that the Chinese will meet coldly and her, says Yao.

Demographer Li Jianxin of Peking University also believes that a lack of interest in the unrestricted politics of two children is inevitable, since the current Chinese marrying and giving birth to children were born in the 1980s and 1990s. This generation's ideas about the birth of children, and the cost of their birth and upbringing, are not at all the same as those of the generation of their parents.

Gu Baochang of the People's University of China wrote in his recent article in Phoenix Weekly that when they conducted research in different places in China and found out what the effect of the implementation of the limited policy of two children was, they were amazed to find that, regardless of the whether it is China or western, city or village, the reaction to this policy was unexpectedly indifferent everywhere. There were very few spouses who applied for the birth of a second child. In the course of his research, Gu Baochang found that couples who had a second child had one extremely important trait - the parents of these spouses were able to help them take care of their children.

According to the demographer, in an environment where the demographic policy of “giving birth less is better” has become a mainstream trend in Chinese society and a strategy has been adopted to fully introduce the two-child policy, the CCP's State Committee on Health and Planned Childbirth continues to emphasize that having a third child is strictly is prohibited, and fines continue to be charged for this. This is completely inadequate to the requirements of the times, Gu Baochang said.

Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang also believe that in the face of the dangerously low fertility in China, it is necessary to immediately lift the birth control and start stimulating it as quickly as possible. Even if the unrestricted two-child policy is now introduced everywhere, China will still be the only place on the globe with the most severe birth control.

The dire consequences of the one-child policy

Data released on January 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that at the end of 2015, China had 704.14 million males and 670.48 million females. There were 33.66 million more men than women.

The Communist Party's 35-year one-child policy has continuously caused social problems and brought a lot of suffering to the common people. A severe violation of the proportion between the male and female population is one of its consequences. This was the reason for the increase in the number of single men.

In addition, the increasing aging of the population, "acute labor shortages" and other problems are becoming more and more threatening in China every year. Last April, Minister of Finance of the PRC Lou Jiwei noted that the number of people over 65 had increased from 8.1% in 2011 to the current 10.1%. The working-age population began to decline sharply. At the beginning of 2012, it decreased by 3 million people (people aged 16-59) and after that it continued to fall.

Fudan University professor Wang Feng told CNN that when people look back in the future, they will see that the one-child policy is the CCP's biggest mistake in modern history. He considers it ineffective and unnecessary, since in the 80s. the birth rate in China has already slowed down.

Since 1979, the Chinese authorities have adhered to the formula "one family - one child" in the demographic policy. Since the population of China was already approaching the billion mark in the middle of the twentieth century, the authorities took a number of measures aimed at reducing the demographic growth. These included the promotion of late marriages and late childbirth, as well as education of the population in the field of family planning and contraception. But the ban on the birth of a second child played a key role in this policy. At first, birth control measures were the most severe: up to the forced sterilization of offenders and forced abortions in late pregnancy. In the 2000s, the government switched to a more humane policy, limiting itself only to fines, which, however, could reach astronomical amounts. A second child in China has long been an unaffordable luxury for many families. For unauthorized pregnancies, married couples had to pay the state amounts equal to several average annual incomes in the region. Also, children born outside the law were automatically deprived of their social rights. They did not have access to preferential education and free medical care.

However, many married couples who wanted to expand their families still found loopholes in the law. For example, pregnant women went to give birth to autonomous Hong Kong. Here, childbearing was not limited in any way, and the child still received Chinese citizenship. At some point, the Hong Kong authorities even had to impose a ban on the entry into the region of pregnant women who had not booked a place in the hospital in advance. Some parents registered their own children as adopted, which also allowed them to evade payments. In rural areas, families that broke the law simply stopped registering their children to avoid fines. As a result, the Chinese countryside was flooded with masses of people "non-existent" for the state.

There is still a debate among economists and sociologists about how justified the restrictions introduced in the 1970s were. Then the leadership of the Communist Party justified the new measures by the fact that the Chinese industry in the future will not be able to provide everything necessary for the rapidly growing population. However, it was during this period that the country began to experience a natural decline in the birth rate, which usually occurs in all states as the education and provision of the population grows. As a result, the ill-considered reforms led to a demographic collapse.

Permission to give birth to a second child

Changes in demographic policy began only in the 2010s. The fact is that the decline in the birth rate has led to a crisis in the pension insurance system. The number of non-working pensioners in the country was growing, while the number of the able-bodied population paying taxes to the treasury was constantly decreasing. The country was rapidly aging, and the influx of young people into science, government service, the army and industry was also rapidly declining.

This situation required immediate government intervention. At first, the authorities tried to avoid drastic measures. In 2013, couples in which at least one of the spouses was the only child in the family received the right to have a second child in China. Also, in some rural regions, a law was implemented that allowed repeated childbirth in those families where the first girl was born. However, this practically did not affect the demographic situation. According to the forecasts of the authorities, after the new laws, more than two million babies were to appear in the country. But in 2014, only 400 thousand more people were born in China than in the past. For a state with a billion people, this figure was negligible.

After these failures, in 2015, China officially allowed all families to have a second child without restrictions.

Results of the new policy

To date, the expected population explosion in China has never happened. The fertility rate here is only 1.5 children per woman (the world average is 2.2), and in some megacities this figure is less than one. This paradox is associated with a number of reasons. Firstly, the generation, which from an early age was instilled with the idea that two children in a family are unacceptable, is not psychologically ready for a baby boom. Secondly, China is a country with a very poor environmental situation, and there are a very large number of infertile people among young people. Thirdly, for a long time in Chinese families it was practiced to terminate pregnancy in cases where it turned out that a woman was carrying a girl. Moreover, rural China has only recently stopped killing newborn girls. This has led to a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and a gender imbalance. Many men aged 20-40 simply cannot find a life partner and start a family.

Still, a certain demographic rise was observed in 2016, the symbol of which was the Monkey. According to the Eastern calendar, a person born under this sign will be lucky and smart. Despite the atheistic course promoted by the Communist Party, the Chinese have retained their ancient beliefs and take the Eastern horoscope very seriously. However, it is highly doubtful that the small increase in 2016 will somehow affect the further rates of population growth.

Most experts agree that the Chinese Communist Party was at least ten years late with the implementation of the new demographic policy. Very soon the lack of able-bodied population will lead to a decrease in industrial production, and this, in turn, will lead to a crisis. Amid the economic depression, Chinese families will again give up childbearing, this time voluntarily.