Rumors about a possible default in Russia are approximately from mid-2013. During this time, a mass of predictions appeared: some believe that in the country after the Olympics it is possible to repeat the scenario of the 1998 default scenario, others say that the crisis is likely to be, but still not so tangible, the third inclined to the idea that the default will not be at all . Who to believe?

Why in 2014 a default should happen in Russia?

Financiers note that rumors about a possible default have, in general, one base: a sharp increase in the dollar is about 6 percent - in relation to the Russian ruble in the middle of the current year. Many people, one way or another familiar with the economy, built certain schemes and determined that after such a significant fall of the ruble, the Russian Federation will not be able to pay external debt and fulfill its obligations to the International Monetary Fund in particular and the world community at all. Is the default expected? Let's say right - yes.

At the same time, the existence of another point of view will be fair to be noted, according to which the default of the Russian economy does not threaten. This is optimistic - part of the experts refers to substantial income from the sale of gas and oil, as well as a large gold and collar supply. At the same time, it is noted that quite recently - in 2008 - the Russian Federation experienced the hardest financial crisis, but the default did not happen. What is observed now, really reminds the current situation, and the rate of economic growth is indeed slowed down, but due to the fact that the state has good resources, and the Central Bank holds the ruble under control, the question of default is not worth an edge, specialists are noted. However, while these are just forecasts.

"Defalt Budget", or what will live Russia in 2014

At the end of November 2013, the Federation Council adopted the budget for the next year, as well as the preliminary budget for the planning period of 2015-2016. Even in the Ministry of Finance, it is noted that the government had to disperse the document in the extremely difficult conditions of macroeconomics. Due to the slowdown in economic growth, which, reaching a mark of five percent in early 2012, sharply went to the decline and as of the first quarter of 2013 amounted to a little more than one percent. As a result, the Ministry of Finance had to, as they say, cut without anesthesia: the state procurement decreased by five percent, came to the refusal of indexing the wages of civil servants (including military, judges and prosecutors), and also carried out purchases within the framework of 2016 state program Weapons. As a result, the project really turned out to be sufficiently heavy.

According to current data, in 2014, the budget deficit is possible at a level of 390 billion Russian rubles, in 2015 it may increase to 797 billion, in 2016 the deficit will be returned to more low level at 480 billion.

The new budget is notable for income and expenses. It is expected that in 2014 revenues russian economy We will make up about 13.6 trillion rubles, in 2015 this amount will grow by trillion, in 2016 the income may be, according to preliminary calculations, 16 trillion rubles. At the same time, the budget costs are expected in 2014 at 14 trillion, in 2015 - 15.4 trillion, in 2016 - 16.4 trillion. Translated to the percentage expression of gross domestic percentage, all this means that next year, expenses will increase by 4.3 percent, in 2015 - by 10 percent, in 2016 - another 6.7. And this is not the most comforting forecast that can be represented.

As for the state domestic debt, its upper limit for 2015 is set at a mark of 7.2 billion rubles, for 2016 - at the level of 8.5 billion, by 2017, according to the Ministry of Finance, it can grow to 9.3 billion. External debt fluctuates in a similar framework, only a few orders of magnitude higher: 2015 - 72 billion, but already dollars, not rubles; 2016 - 78.8 billion, 2017 - 88.5 billion US dollars.

Finally, expenses on individual budget items deserve separate attention. The national defense in 2014, according to the agreed budget, will be spent 1.02 trillion rubles, on law enforcement activities - 1.46 trillion, social policy takes 3.53 trillion (and this is the most impressive industry for 2014). Education costs will be 5,69.2 billion, health care and development of medicine - 462.53 billion.

Opinions about whether the next year will be adequate for Russian Federation subject to the fulfillment of such a budget, a little contradictory, but in general converge in one: the prospect is not very comforting. In the countable chamber, he was called unrealistic, and representatives of some parties were painted the budget-2014 "default budget".

Olympic Games with a budget forefall

If we remember how default began in 1998, the fact that the then budget apocalypse of the Government of Boris Yeltsin had its external and internal causes that could not be ashamed of any economy. Externally reasons were, in particular, a sharp decline (or even drop) of oil prices - at that time it dropped to $ 12 in just a barrel - as well as the collapse of the Asian stock exchange. Internal causes of default, for the most part, became irresponsible budget planning with a huge deficit and pyramid of state short-term obligations With the yield into a terrible 40 percent per annum. The rate was so high that ultimately the world news exploded: a default hit in Russia. The budget of the multi-million country became commended by the budget of New York.

Where did the parallel come from between 1998 and 2014? There are no connections not only at first glance. However, if you look closely at current events, it will emerge substantial, although imperceptible at first, the item: as of the second quarter of this year, a quarter of all bonds of the federal loan was near non-residents. In general, it is not very bad, because with an increase in demand for OFZ, the yield of bonds falls. But if the yield will reach the level below the inflationary, OFZ will cease to be interesting Russian residents, as the budget of the country will dot out of their pockets. In this case, domestic lenders will be outstanding foreign and debts federal budget They are reproaching from internal debt into external. And this, it should be noted, an unprecedented case for the Russian economy. Is such a scenario waiting for Russia? Quite possibly. Some experts say that even the approximate date is known for them when a non-resident share in OFZ can reach 50 percent: the first half of 2014 is, that is, the period when the Olympiad will end in Sochi.

Many see in the Olympics more than a real threat to the economy. This is quite explained: the project of the winter event laid huge funds, which may simply not justify themselves. The largest paradox is that one of the most southern and warm cities is chosen for the construction of ice palaces, where people go primarily for vacation by the sea, and already behind skiing and hockey. So, by numerous opinions, Ice Palaces and Sports arena may simply stay exorbitant cargo for the city, where there are not so many people engaged in figure skating and skating sports. Sochi, in general, it does not even reach the status of the millionth city - there lives about 400 thousand people there, and the existing stadium is 10 thousand for the history of the city takes fully not so often. At the same time, the organizers are preparing a two-thousandth "stock" of stadium places. And if they remain after the Olympics, what to do with them next is not entirely clear. In short, the legacy of the Olympiad is what the population cares in general and financiers in particular the most. At best, all this will turn into douse markets. At worst, Sochi will finally turn into Russian Las Vegas. How to restore the funds invested in the event is completely unclear. Is there a way out? Perhaps there is. Perhaps even in the coming year.

Defalt for someone else's account

One of the most likely ways to counter the crisis (or default; we will give him the status of "possible") - the transition to the mobilization model of the economy.

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Since by the beginning of 2014, the rate of economic growth may decrease to the critical mark in the half apler, and at the same time the export of capital will increase, the question of increasing the reserve and reduce costs will increase. The main opportunity to save for Russia is the neighboring state of Ukraine, seeking, as is known, to jointing European Union. For Ukraine, this step is equivalent to a short-term, but still the instantaneous collapse of the economy, since in this case the Russian Federation will cease to lend that for the Ukrainian economy, in many ways reinforced russian funds, almost fatal. On the other hand, for Russia, such a move to some extent is beneficial: despite the fact that the country will lose some part of the funds, the release of "Ukrainian" money could well help avoid default. It sounds paradoxically, but Ukraine can save the Russian economy from the protracted crisis, if it refuses investment, loans and preferences. However, the relationship between neighboring countries (not only by Ukraine, but also by other states) is unlikely to end, since Russia is waiting for about ten years of "military communism", that is, the extremely rigid savings of resources and with a great degree of probability can leave Europe at all. After the US and the European Union discovered the free trade zone, it is not excluded that Azerbaijan and Qatar will be held in European energy in the European energy industry, since Russia will not play on Western rules.

What is today the public debt, what can increase his increase? Will Defalt come in 2014 and why did not come in 2013. What will happen in February 7, 2014? My forecasts for 2014. Should I take a mortgage and other loans in US dollars? Hello site readers.

US public debt for 2014

Consider public debt by year. We see that after the 2008 crisis, the US debt increased by 18.5% per year. For 2013, it increased by 2.7%. The growth rates slowed down, now it seems to be the situation in the world calm and media not foreshadow default, although the prerequisites of October were. When will the default be? How do you think to what gDP level US will pull?

Defalt - This is a sharp depreciation of the country's currency, which does not allow the state to pay with external and internal debts, as a result of which the government is forced to declare a default as a declaration on the termination of payments for the debts for one period or another. So let's see what countries the United States should.

As we see China and Japan directly dependent on the United States and the default is most likely not necessary.

What is the increase in public debt?

In the next twenty years, the Fund social security will miss the coating funds pension payments generation born during demographic boom. This means that the Government will have to raise taxes, since the Big US debt excludes the possibility of additional funding at the expense of loans from other countries. But most likely that social payments Will be trimmed for pensioners under 70 years old or for those citizens who have high income and can do without social security.

If it still happens, and the country will be forced to declare the technical default (it arises against the will of the borrower), this will affect not only their internal economy, but also the world. In the summer of 2011, the United States was already on the verge of bankruptcy, but literally the day before the official recognition of bankruptcy Republicans and democrats in urgent order Agreed to increase the ceiling of public debt. The political opponents of the US President are against the increase in the debt threshold. Barack Obama notes that if such a decision is made, it does not affect budget expenditures. The US Department of Finance encourages Republicans and Democrats to abandon disagreements and allow to increase the liberal limit.

What if there is a default?

After the default comes, the dollar rate will fall in price from 33r to rubles 22. Inflation in 2014 will be big, I think more than 15%. The global financial crisis will come, all procurement systems of imported clothes will collapse, all banks will raise interest, there will be nothing to pay. Mass unemployment, the standard of living of the population decreases sharply, crime and riots will increase, the country is already so no one credit and has to sell national wealth, mainly land. State dollar reserves of all states will instantly impair. Possible 3. world WarAs Wang predicted, which, according to her estimates, should start in 2011. Vanga predicted that Europe would be destroyed and China will become a new power. Which country is better to leave? In Russia, it is worse in Russia, I think it will not be worse, in the extremes of grandmothers in beds everything you need will grow, but in what country to go to permanent residence is a big question. On the case of war, I think it is better to consider immigration to the post of Communist countries in Vietnam and Thailand where there is no Such sophisticated financial systems. Just think about transferring pensions to a non-state pension fund until January 1, 2014.

Do you cost a mortgage in US dollars in 2014?

Consider such a scheme: if there is no default before July, the dollar rate due to the vacation season and the dollar demand will increase. My forecast of about 35p per dollar. Then anticipating the international financial crisis can be calmly a mortgage. Suppose we take an apartment for 5,000,000 rubles ($ 143,000), an international financial crisis comes and the course will fall to 22r per dollar. Then it turns out that we will need to pay about 3 150 000 rub. Banking system Can you collapse? I think if you take a mortgage in banks with small assets, then there is such a probability.

What will happen to my investments?

On the this moment I am investing in the PAMM account of official brokers, all the money is in dollars, both the Broker Pantheon Finance and the Forex Trond broker. It will be very sad if the default and the dollar will depreciate. Then I suffer not only me but all investors. Where then to invest? The most reliable tool will be gold. The prices of it in 2014 will take off instantly, then it will be possible to earn good. It remains to hope that the United States will take another debt and for a couple of years will move the default.

The global economy is currently experiencing not the best times and this is a fact. The consequences of 2008, although they are slightly smoothed, but it was not possible to rebuild the leading economies of the world in such a short time, so the second wave of the crisis, which is predicted on the second half of 2014, not to avoid. This is especially hard to affect the weaker economies of the world, among whom Russia is included.

Causes of Russia default in 2014

The fact that the Russian economy will not be able to move the second blow to the world crisis is also relatively easy, as last time, does not cause any doubts. And there are several reasons here.

First, the stubfond, in which, at the time of the start of the crisis of 2008, a huge amount of funds were accumulated, actually acted, and new income is clearly not enough.

Secondly, the external market situation and now it is not in favor of the Russian economy: oil prices have not grown contrary to expectations, the consumption of Russian gas is reduced by the introduction of new energy-saving technologies, and part of it replaced cheaper shale gas. At the same time, Russia for last years So could not offer anything substantial to the world, except for its natural resources.

Well, both, thirdly, unresarously bloated to the social. Already at the end of 2013, the Government of the Russian Federation had to go to exclusive savings measures, having completed the sequestration of the budget and practically frozen. Started pension reform, the purpose of which is to remove the burden of pension payments from the state and transfer them to private pension fundsmay give a real effect only after 10-15 years.

Thus, taking into account even on optimistic forecasts, GDP growth in 2014 at the level of 1.5-2%, the probability of Russia is very large.

For almost a month, US President Barack Obama, his democratic colleagues and republican opponents in Congress held the whole world in voltage. But the American civil servants who were sent to unpaid holidays due to the fact that the Republicans blocked the government's financing. True, the authorities promise to compensate for all costs that have suffered about 800 thousand employees of the public sector. In general, according to preliminary data, budget crisis Wrapped for US economy loss of $ 24 billion.

Budget crisis cost US nine flights on Mars

Barack Obama approved a compromise decision taken by Congress on the night of October 17. The relevant document renews the financing of the government until January 15, 2014, and allows the Ministry of Finance to carry out borrowing until February 7. And by mid-December of this year, the conciliation commission from Democrats and Republicans should, in theory, prepare a full-fledged budget. Congress members are aware of the absurdity of the current situation and even hope that her repeat will be avoided. About this, for example, after a compromise vote, Senator Democrat Patty Murray said:

"This story went too far, took too much time, too many families suffered because we were looking for a compromise for a long time. Now the Republicans were able to see the real consequences of the closure of the government. I hope they will not be so reckless to repeat it in the future. Now it is clear that the ceiling of the public debt was supposed to be enhanced and should not be used as a tool to achieve political goals. "

American Republicans and Democrats will show the world "New Show" in January 2014

American default: Suspantly for someone else's account

Democrats generally present the opposition as the victory of Obama over Republicans. However, many experts do not doubt - the budget battle will be resumed. According to the director of the analytical department of United traders, Mikhail Krylova, this will happen in mid-January, when the financing of the US Federal Government ends:

"Thus, in the near future we will see the continuation of debates around the key bill for medical insurance. Most likely, the following compromise will be based on some concessions in the field medical insurance and possibly in the field social expenses generally. It seems that the President will take a tough position in this matter, and therefore the next round of negotiations on the default and the ceiling of the public debt is practically guaranteed. "

Meanwhile, the rest of the world around the United States, there was probably his apogee in the rest of the world around the United States. So, Beijing, delicately using the Employee of the state news agency "Xinhua", proposed to de-aimerize the world. In fact, we are talking about the introduction of a new reserve currency and the formation of the global financial and economic system, not tied to the domination of the dollar.

The revision of the global financial architecture is extremely relevant today, but in the coming years alternative to the dollar is not foreseen, the Deputy Director of the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Academy believes national economy and civil servants under the President of Russia (RANKHIGS) Vladimir Nazarov:

"We see a small strengthening of the euro. But within the framework of what happened before, there is no significant disappointment in the dollar, and there can be no, considering that the world financial system Enough inert. Quick revision (system) can not be. "

It is noteworthy that the current budget crisis in the United States summoned new doubts about the effectiveness of the American political system in the expert community. Regular discussions around the budget and the liberal limit are primarily associated with political processes in the United States. According to the director of the analytical department of the Nord-Capital InvestGroup, Vladimir Rozhankovsky, the bipartisan system has its advantages only in the conditions of a stable economy. In today's situation, when there is a lot of controversial moments and there is something to share, the effect of pulling the blanket arises, Relazhansky noted in an interview with the Voice of Russia:

"Now in the Congress, the initiatives of one party meet the energetic resistance of the other. My recipe as an economist - in the formation of some small third party, which will also have a certain number of places and in the Senate, and in the House of Representatives and for the voices of which democrats and Republicans will fight. Then The current political forces will be forced to appeal to more common sense, to logic, more subtle and accurately approach the calculations of their legislative initiatives. "

Very many analysts are convinced that the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats on the budget, the ceiling of the public debt and other questions will soon be only sharpened. And it is possible that in the end this will actually lead to the appearance on the political field of the third, additional force that can balance the controversial situation. There is a chance that the Libertarian Party will take this role in time.

Well, as Americans intend to solve the main problem associated with continuous growth and so already a colossal public debt, unfortunately, can not predict or assume any expert. So congratulations to all with the onset of the United States of the new fiscal year.

The free exchange rate of the ruble was introduced in Russia on July 1, 1992. Immediately after that, the Bank of Russia equalized the official exchange rate of the US dollar with Exchange, raising it with 56 kopecks to 125 rubles (growth of 222 times).

From 26 to 28 August 1992 The official ruble rate fell in relation to the dollar by 18% - from 168.1 to 205 rubles per dollar. And about. The Chairman of the Bank of Russia Viktor Gerashchenko explained the excess of demand over the currency proposal. As reasons also called high inflation expectations of commercial banks and the population, an increase in purchasing prices for the main agricultural products, an increase budget spending, growth of debt obligations of enterprises.

"Black Tuesday"

September 22, 1992 The dollar rate in relation to the ruble rose by 14.73% - from 205.5 to 241 rubles. This day received the name "Black Tuesday" in the media. Shortly before that, on September 17, President of Russia Boris Yeltsin signed a decree on the transition to new adjustable prices for certain types of energy resources. Rising prices for petroleum products, coal, transport services, thermal and electrical energy, food caused another turn of inflation and collapse of the national currency. "Black Tuesday" contributed to the increase in credit and monetary emission, reduction of export receipts and decline in industrial production.

October 1, 1992there was another increase in the dollar's course, which increased by 17.79% - from 254 to 309 rubles. Experts noted that the wave of attractive demand for dollars is associated with inflationary processes in the Russian economy.

From September 22 to September 24, 1993 The official ruble rate fell by 20.25% in relation to the dollar, which grew from 1036 to 1299 rubles. There was an attractive demand for currency. Experts explained the situation primarily by political instability - On September 21, President Boris Yeltsin signed a decree on phased constitutional reform in the Russian Federation, in accordance with which the congress of people's deputies and the Supreme Council should have ceased operations.

October 11, 1994 It became another "black Tuesday" in Russia. In one day, the dollar rate grew by 27.84% - from 2833 to 3926 rubles. However, such a large-scale fall of the ruble turned out to be short-term, on October 14, the dollar rate was 2994 rubles. According to the conclusions of the State Commission to investigate the causes of the cutting destabilization financial market, the collapse of the ruble occurred against the background of the general crisis in the economy, but some commercial banks Conducted speculative currency operationsaimed at the artificial growth of the dollar. As a result of the "black Tuesday", the chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Viktor Gerashchenko and I.O. Finance Minister Sergey Dubinin.

Since July 1, 1992, before the denomination conducted on January 1, 1998, the ruble depreciated at 47 times: from 125 to 5960 rubles.

Defalt 1998.

August 17, 1998 In Russia, a technical default was announced in the main types of government debt obligations. At the same time, the government refused to hold the fixed exchange rate of the ruble in relation to the dollar and announced the transition to a floating rate in the framework of the new "currency corridor", the boundaries of which were sharply expanded. From August 18 to September 9, the dollar rose in relation to the ruble by 3.2 times: from 6.50 to 20.83 rubles, after which a short-term strengthening of up to 8.67 rubles followed. On August 23, President Boris Yeltsin signed a decree on the resignation of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko, September 11, the head of the Central Bank Sergey Dubinin resigned. By the end of the year, several more sharp rumps of the dollar were recorded: September 17 (by 22.81%, from 9.61 to 12.45 rubles), September 18 (by 14.7%, to 14.6 rubles), October 17 ( 12.57%, from 13.56 to 15.51 rubles).

Economic crisis and depreciation russian currency The artificial overestimation of the ruble exchange rate in order to reduce inflation, the crisis in the countries of Southeast Asia and the sharp drop in world energy prices, which constituted a significant part of Russian exports.

The weakening of the ruble continued for four years after the default.

December 7 and 12, 2002 The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the dollar was estimated at 31.86 rubles (from the moment of default, the ruble depreciated to the dollar by 4.9 times). Then the course began to decline and remained stable until 2008.

Crisis 2008.

In 2008, after the beginning of August 8 fighting between Russian and Georgian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the ruble also fell in relation to foreign currenciesHowever, his fall was not too significant. The dollar rate by August 12 in relation to the ruble grew by 4% (from 23.58 rubles to 24.57 rubles), euro - by 0.84% \u200b\u200b(from 36.47 to 36.78 rubles). However, due to the successful completion of the military campaign, since August 13 began to strengthen the ruble.

In 2008-2009 The ruble exchange rate has repeatedly fell due to the global financial crisis. This preceded a sharp decline the most important indicator business activity in the US Index Dow Jones and indexes on leading stock markets European Union, collapse of the Russian financial market. The growth of the Russian economy slowed sharply. In 2009, a number of jumps of the official dollar exchange rate in relation to the ruble were recorded: 13.71% for the period from January 1 to January 21 (from 29.39 to 33.42 rubles), 8.1% from January 29 to February 3 ( from 33.22 to 36.18 rubles) and 5.13% from February 14 to 19 (from 34.56 to 36.43 rubles). The euro rate has increased dramatically: twice by 9.5% in the period 10-19 December 2008 (from 36 to 39.78 rubles) and from January 24 to February 5, 2009 (from 42.4 to 46.84 rubles) .

According to experts, the reasons for such jumps was the aggravation of the global financial crisis and the increase in concerns about the entry into the world economy in the recession band. The weakening of the ruble contributed to the fall in world oil prices. Also, the increase in the dollar and the euro was due to the policy of the Central Bank of Russia on the weakening of the ruble to the Bivarny Basket, as a result of which its cost has repeatedly increased. In this way, the bank tried to smooth out the process of reducing the course of the national currency, preventing a sharp collapse.

In 2014 The largest drop in the official ruble rate towards the dollar and the euro was noted on December 4: 6.65 and 5.98%, respectively, from 50.77 to 54.38 rubles per dollar and from 63.24 to 67.27 rubles per euro.