The question is not new, even, honestly, is already quite old, but some people who are not particularly interested in the economy, he can arise. What is the reason for the success of the Chinese economy and why such a development failed to achieve in Russia?
[Article Updated 26/6/2019]
Preface
This article, like all articles in the ECON DUDE blog, are not a scientific source of truth. This is only my private and subject opinion, my analyst and my opinion on this question. Of course, I try to collect sources, disassemble the question in detail and write interesting, but such a huge topic, as the causes of the success of China in terms of the economy, in fact it is impossible to cover in one article.Shine.
Entry finished, proceed to the disaster.
About the economic miracle of China did not speak only the lazy
On the this moment China's GDP is about 11 trillion dollars, China for this indicator the second economy of the world, after the United States.
China's growth in the economy
Third, if we consider the European Union by a solid economy, but I would not think so, as its integrity after the exit Britain A bit broken and can be so violated by other countries at any time.Growth GDP China has been 8-11% and higher for many years, starting only slightly slow down in recent years. Although, what is curious, the US grows faster than China. I wrote about it separately:
It should be noted that GDP per soul is not the same thing that, and income of the population. GDP is somehow the cost of all assets per person, although this is a rather rough definition, but there is no point in deeper on now.
The fact of the success of China in recent decades is rarely disputed, and this is despite the fact that China is formally a communist-socialist country. This is exactly what many templates break, and that is why I want to compare China a little with Russia and from the USSR. How did China manage to achieve such success and what was the reason for the rapid growth of the Chinese economy?
Chinese economy success story
The history of informative and for the Russians, so as we have a straight side hanging the example "as it could be." After the death of Mao in 1978, the reform began in China - Reform and opening policy. And the key person in all this story was Dan Xiaopin, About which everyone needs to be known, as he almost brought China from non-existence alone and turned it into the world leader.Often, the story changes not the people in general, but very specific personalities.
It can turn the mountains and change the story, both for the better and the worst. Therefore, it does not always be fair to dump something on the lazy people or some common processes that no one can control. The right person at the right time and in the right place can change the story. Remember Jobs, Hein, Trump, Ilona Mask, Napoleon, Peter the first and many others.
Okay. Let's disassemble the specific steps and the actions that have led China to success. Steps were not so much.
Reducing the role of the state in the economy
The first steps were to reduce the role of the government in the economy. Paradoxically for the allegedly communist / socialist country. This is not the first example when you can see a direct correlation of the growth of the economy and the universal prosperity of the people after a decrease in the role of the state in the economy.Correlation direct, even at the level of taxes.
. All licenses, lens for business, checks, registration, and everything else belong to this. Any bureaucracy harms the economy, and the second breathing gives the bureaucracy layer. Officials do not add anything to GDP.
As soon as you reduce taxes, as this, the same Trump recently, you leave more money to business and people, and this is a plus for the country.
Joint ventures with foreigners
The state began to encourage the sodium of local firms with foreign. The main problem of China was then in retardation on technologies and knowledge from the West, urgently needed two things: money and technology.I worked there for some time.
This Russian economic game simulates well. Why in the game, players politicians guessed to make a special place for profitable production - Uzbekistan, resetting duties and reducing taxes up to 5%? And all the players guessed exactly there to transfer all the gaming production, and in reality, someone turns out to be incomprehensible, what harm can be from high duties and taxes.
At least one region should be preferential in the country, where taxes and duties are small. In China, such special economic zones are fully, and no one will cancel this policy tomorrow, so they invest it there.
Low Taxes Example
Why, even in the game, ordinary people were successfully simulated and used, sometimes even young people understand everything perfectly.
Well, in reality, someone is incomprehensible.
What other restrictions on economic activity are:
- Taxes;
- Duties;
- Licensing;
- Checks;
- Problem labor legislation;
- Crime;
- The lack of stability and predictability of the government.
About the predictability, stability and predictability of Russia do not speak. Russia is just famous in the international arena that absolutely no one in the world is able to calculate the next step of the Russian Federation.
Maybe it is good for something, but not for the economy.
Crime is also a very serious factor.
If there is at least the slightest crime, even the smallest, then this is a huge negative factor for investment in the country. And what to say about the country where crime at the highest level. Where it is sometimes difficult to distinguish an official from the bandit and it is not clear who came to you to demand something.
Respect for private property also goes to this item. In China for corruption, the death penalty, and in Russia what do with corrupt officials?
Enhance the service?
There are also curious things, for example. It is known that excessive and mass alcohol consumption increases crime, reduces ability to work, etc. In China, too, of course, thump, but in Russian standards it is a children's level. True there are exceptions, for example in South Korea a lot thumpEven more than Russians, you will be surprised, but everything is OK with the economy there.
Orientation for export
I wrote about it here:Disadvantages of the Chinese system
The world is lucky that there is such a people in it like the Chinese.A billion people with zero claims and minimal ambitions that do not know how and do not like to fight. Above the Chinese are mocked by centuries. British mocked in opium wars, Mongols mocked, the Japanese mocked. Russians mocked many once, biting together with all pieces in times Russian Empire. For centuries, China was all pressing, used and squeezed, the people are so cracked and humble, but with him you can wear anything that was done.
But the people now wake up a national consciousness that never died to the end. With all their stuffiness and external modesty, such a population and such a sample, of course, generates geniuses.
Appetites are growing.
China has long changed and the West penetrates everything deeper.
Now many Chinese in the cities are so proud and arrogant that even Russian and Ukrainian women can learn what should be TP. The people loved money and no communism left there.
However, all these tons of production strongly, very much of the atmosphere, it is a huge and real problem.
In the cities, there is still stupid to breathe, everyone worn masks.
Because of the politics of one child, the population will become old, global money is also not infinite and they have long been in China. World investors are the most cunning people in the world, they are very nervous and they have a huge paranoia.
If tomorrow suddenly something happens, for example, the Chinese government will throw something (Chances, of course, is not enough, as they do not like the multicipation and forks)Or, for example, data will be released on a slowdown in growth, then the trillions of bucks will be removed from China as well as they were there and attributed, in a matter of days. Capitalists nothing but the speed of capital growth in this world is not interested.
Now there is 7% growth there and they have long been slowly overflowing loot to other places. You can increasingly notice the clothes and the food of Vietnam, Turkey and even Russia. The places have become less, all fat slices have already sink and buried, competition is growing. Yes, and if 10-30 years ago, foreign markets were ready to digest billions of tons of cheap and bad Chinese products, foreign markets are also not bottomless, they are filled, and the people more and more often prefers quality and many are ready to pay for the quality. And "Made in China" is, as you know, although the price guarantee, but not quality.
Quality guarantee is Germany, whose economy feels perfectly for many years.
Look at the dollar rate - Yuan for 10 years.
Now it is 1 dollar \u003d 6.8 yuan. See what happens?
China has strengthened the currency until 2013, now weakening again. This is a signal that there may be problems with exports, although the trade balance is like not falling. The currency rate strongly affects the trade balance and the fact that China loves to play with the course, the billion times said the same Trump. CHINA, China, China)
If export income falls, you simply weaken the currency. What Russia has done after falling oil prices to balancing the budget.
Since 2013, weakening the course of the yuan, and this is a bad sign for the economy. It is trying to rebuild for internal demand and in many ways it is possible, but even now, and never really, the Chinese could not be real leaders in terms of innovation, the United States always played them as the core of political and economic System US is better. China can catch up and be on a step behind the leader, but as you know, the Chinese are adapted and copy, rarely come up with something really new, although of course they come up with something and much more than many other countries, but from the USA in this regard They lag behind. Although I wrote this to me, I wanted to check my considerations.
Check me refuted:
2014th year, China is the first on the number of applications for scientific patents.
However, according to grants (Approval of the application, as I understand it) The United States leads. As you can see in the top of Japan and South Korea, countries with a similar to China fate and a jump in development, but Korea and Japan are still very different from China.
Thousands of guns from the north, with nuclear charges, are aimed at Seoul.
They are not very fun there.
But in Japan, everything is rather normal, except for the gigantic state. Debt and risk of flooding and destruction from the next volcano eruption, shift slabs or some more garney, but in general in Japan and Korea, the situation is quite better than in China.
Russia, manages, even with relatively weak support of science, keep the sixth place in the world by the number of patents, which inspires some hope, but of course sad, so as possible to imagine what was in Russia if at least ever in History The state gave normal money on science, or if there was a large private business in the Russian Federation, which would support this science.
Science in China, by the way, strongly supports business.
Another problem of China is the whole core of their ideology and government. Yes, the majority of the Chinese have a shit on power, they are used to live in a gigantic repression system, they have much more experience than that of Russians and they are not fools, but the government has full control and can stumble at one moment and lose everything. In China, the wise leadership at the highest level, China rule the genius after Mao, which is why they managed to overire all, however, all make mistakes.
Some ships in some not those seas?
Some desire to return some kind of islands?
Tibet? Chinese firewall? Exchanges?
Yes, and a lot of all sorts of horrors, which are made in China, pushes tens of years of smart Chinese from the country. The scale of the leakage of brains is colossal, Russia has not dreamed. All smart Chinese have long been in the USA, Europe and Canada.
They will never return, but they take off not only their brains, but also usually - huge money. Canada floor ranged by the Chinese, half the western coast of the United States belongs to the Chinese. But do not think that it buys Chinese capital in the sense - the Government of China.
It is buying individual Chinese who in China raised him, it does not have a relationship to China. It's like buying apartments in Miami you know who. The same situation in China is happening, but only hundreds of times larger.
Russia with her (and mine, in this blog)a constant jam about thieves and bad power is flowers, compared with China. There, too, everything is rotting inside and rotted much. I have familiar Russians, who went to China to learn, we communicated. What appraisals he told you not to convey. Man returned home.
If you think that in Russia censorship, write something bad in the Chinese Internet about their power and we will see how quickly you have problems. Problems quiet, and no media then cry for you will not, about it just no one will know. Create this blog in China and write such things, for example, speaking of China's shortcomings in comparison with the United States, I would never be able to.
Although in China, you can still raise a bunch of money, although there is not all right here is terrible, and the country is still actively developing and now is the world leader, there are problems there too. I just wrote for this the last item that you wouldn't think that China is perfect. Do not interfere in a bunch of economics and power of China, and ordinary Chinese. You do not interfere in a bunch for example, the power of Russia / Ukraine and the people of these countries?
If for example, the authorities of the Russian Federation have 80 yards of bucks in the treasury bonds of the United States (Upd., not anymore, Hooray!) and the country is like rich, to simple people This does not apply. For ordinary Chinese, China is far from being perfect. They are still poor, competition is enormous, there is a job, but there is little normal operation. Income, although growing - in Russia, people have more and more money and assets, each specific person.
Censorship there is cruel, the living conditions are frowning, the ecology is bad.
I would look at those who are greatly admired by China, how would they like to be born by Chinese in our time. Oh looked.
All loot in China is the loot of foreigners who can take him at any time, or the Government loot, which is not good and fluffy. And in general, if they do not do something with an environmentally, there will not be stupidly to breathe.
If someone thinks that the United States will begin the war with China, it is obvious that such a war is not beneficial to anyone. Their economies are strongly dependent on each other, and even considering how the Trump scolded China, to fight him stupidly will not give him, and he himself makes strange things, leaving various partnerships that were previously created earlier against China.
The United States as a drug addict for cheap Chinese goods, and without the US, China will quickly come to a complete end.
All US friction allegedly / China inflate the media, this is a political game.
By the way, it is rather curious that sanctions against the Russian Federation is also a political game for the United States, and there was a way to secure himself. How?
It was necessary to start the country as much as possible American dough, this is a clear guarantee that the United States will not be able to do anything from the Russian Federation, if it were 5-10% of the trade turnover.
That is a guaranteed protection from the USA - the availability of American money in large quantities in the country. American money has the most powerful (the most powerful) In the world of the lobby and it would be perfect protection. That is how China did, touching themselves with the US with thin threads, may not even be conscious.
That's all. The article is already a little outdated and I for some mistakes. To this article, I returned several times later and improved it, but I did not completely rewrite. In any case, I am glad if you were interested to read.
My other articles about the economy can be found in the special section.
China, who deserved the fame of the most cheap assembly site in the world, this year became the main supplier of disturbing news. The fall stock market, the devaluation of the yuan, the slowdown in economic growth - the most Chinese news, which since the beginning of summer is shaking neighboring Asian countries, and with them and Europe, and the United States, and, obviously, Russia. Investors from all over the world in panic moved money from risky assets. Oil, metals, almost all commodities fell in price.
The Chinese economy has grown to such an extent that economic weather all over the world depends on its state. The devaluation of the Chinese yuan by 3-5% shook the world is stronger than depreciated by 30% Kazakhstan tenge. The fall of Chinese national valves was to spur export growth, and in China's tracker.
According to the results of the III quarter, the growth rate of the PRC economy slowed to 6.9%, the business activity index falls for the third month in a row, the October figure was 49.8 points. In comparison with Russian GDP, which at the end of the year is expected to decrease by 3.9%, this growth is impressive. However, given the previous golden years, it is obvious about the crisis.
China was practically 40 years old by China's influence on the global economy, managed to build the very socialism with a human face. The beginning of capitalist on the fact of reforms The then head of China's Communist Party Dan Xiaoping explained the phrase that became aphorism: "It doesn't matter what color the cat is, the main thing is that she caught the mice." And I balated Marx: "Practice is the main criterion of truth."
Cats-Mouse with Socialism
Practice quickly showed that the painting of the cat was a faithful solution. If in 1980 the real GDP of the PRC was $ 338.16 billion, then in 1990 - $ 824.12 billion, in 2000 - $ 2223.69 billion, in 2010 - $ 60,39.66 billion (in 2010 prices). China made a bet on self-sufficiency, self-financing and rejection of centralized price regulation, and the result was visible in the first years.
"I remember the first impressions of the Chinese themselves, and Russians who in those years were in the PRC: after people found that it was literally on the street it became possible to buy goods that they had not recently recently could convince them in the right path of the party Not required, "Alexander Butukhanov recalls the Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory of Economic Theory of St. Petersburg.
GDP growth in China
* In 2010 prices.
On the threshold of reforms, China was literally on the verge of hunger. But as soon as the peasants provided themselves, they gave them to work outside collective plants, it turned out that they could feed not only themselves, but also the rest of the country's residents. The agricultural sector, firstly, decided the food problem, and secondly, became a certain polygon for working out market reforms, the economist pays attention. The problem of hunger finally decided by the end of the 1980s.
Since the 1990s, the country holds the first place in the world in the production of grain, meat, cotton, rapeseed seeds, fruits, leaf tobacco, second - in the production of tea, is among the ten world leaders in the production of wool, soybeans, sugar cane and jute. Using less than 9% of the arable land of the world, the PRC today provides food with almost one fifth of the population of the Earth, reported at the end of 2011, China's largest news agency "Xinhua".
Money flew to their homeland
The next most important milestone in the rise of the country from the knees was the policy of "openness to the outside world", when investments were flowed in the country. Important momentwhich distinguishes this stage including from Russia - the essential part of the money infusion was provided by ethnic Chinese from other countries, mainly from Southeast Asia.
From 1979 to 2009, foreign investments amounted to $ 1140 billion, of which $ 940 billion were $ 940 billion on direct investment. About 70% of foreign money were listed by Huqiao (the Chinese from other countries), says Alexander Butuhanov. Only in 1991-1995, investments from Hong Kong in the PRC were estimated $ 18 billion a year, from Taiwan - $ 16 billion outside the mainland China and Taiwan (mainly in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines) are about 50 million Chinese.
Foreign Chinese and enterprises on which they work or own them possess a giant economic potential. In early 1993, Herrt Hofsteda estimated it at $ 200-300 billion - australia's GDP. Since then, this figure has only grown. The largest companies headed by foreign Chinese are at the same time one of the most noticeable foreign investors in the PRC, they speak HSE.
GDP growth of Russia
* In 2008 prices.
Another important resource with which Russia was not lucky in the early 1990s - management technologies that went to China in parallel with money. This moment is often not taken into account, putting a construction plant at the head of the factories, while the detuning of the processes between people is playing a very large role, they speak HSE.
The question of the combination of capitalism with the communist ideology, of course, is not simple. In fact, there are not many countries in the world, where the leading role of the Community is officially declared - this is China and Vietnam in South Kazakhstan. While we do not see the prerequisites for a multiparty system. If you take a state system, where many enterprises, the role of the state is very large, in private business, is understandable, - no. At the same time, foreign companies operating in China are quietly relate to the presence at the enterprises of party cells in enterprises. Party structures even appeal to establish discipline or increase productivity. The main argument for - "It works." Interestingly, the first state-owned bankruptcy in China has happened in China - the manufacturer of electric power equipment Baoding Tianwei announced a default on $ 13.8 million bonds. It is controlled by the Chinese semblance of our Rostech. That is, the Communist Party already makes it clear that it will not save whom even in strategic industries.
Alexander Butukhanov
Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory of St. Petersburg School of Economics and Management HSE
Duty free
Another Kind of China is free economic zones. Initially, the country's authorities clearly outlined, where such is possible - port areas and coastal cities that have become super-limited for years, high-tech enterprises opened in them. Shankzhin, from the southern houses of which is visible by Hong Kong, formally became the city just in 1979, and in the 1980s first in the PRC a special economic zone. Then 30 thousand people lived in it.
Since then, the number of residents has increased 350 times, the 2010 census estimated the population more than 10 million. His contribution to China's GDP is estimated at 2.5%, 16.8% of electronics exported from China are Shenzhen. Here, by the way, they produce most of Apple products, in particular the iPhone and iPad. Russian officials and top managers, justifying the need to create such zones in Russia, lead to the example of Shenzhen.
Today's steps in the Far East of the Russian Federation remotely resemble a Chinese approach. It is noteworthy that the first interests are exactly the Chinese: North of China borders with Russia. Cross-border cities are largely developing thanks to the neighborhood with China. One of the bright examples is Blagoveshchensk, bordering on the Amur River with Heihe (Hailongjiang Province).
Heihe, officially became the city in 1980, rose literally in front of his eyes, turning from the village to a shopping city with high-altitude buildings. Their backlight love to photograph residents of the neighboring city. However, beauty is concentrated mainly by the shore. Showing is quite an element of China's household culture.
Until the ruble fell, the Russians went to hold a weekend in Heihe. Shopping, bowling, cheap restaurants and, like a bonus, - the opportunity to earn, taking on a duty-free import of a lotpotreb on the border. Since 1999, a visa-free entrance has been operating here - the entry point to China is available to a resident of any region of the Russian Federation with a foreign passport. In the summer to China floats on the ferry, in winter - trucks and tourist buses are going through ice, in the past few years - on a pontoon crossing.
Circles on the water
Since 1995, there have been talks about the construction of the bridge over the Amur River - the first agreement was signed by the then headed by the Government of Viktor Chernomyrdin. The protocol events on which "finally decided and outlined deadlines," there are hardly every year, but there is no bridge yet. A month ago, the next agreement was signed, start promised next year. Joint private investments should be about 16 billion rubles.
After falling the ruble, Chinese tourists began to come to Blagoveshchensk more often than the Russians to the neighboring bank. There in the wagons of the merchants and in bags of ordinary Chinese went jewels, canned food and sweets - the region first began to feed China, and not the opposite, the local media wrote in February. An essential part of investment in the region comes from China and Cyprus. Mostly in favor of mining. Here are the main assets of the second largest gold producer in the Russian Federation Petropavlovsk GC.
The foreign trade turnover of the Amur region in 2014 amounted to $ 622.8 million, of which exports amounted to $ 280.4 million, imports - $ 342.4 million, summarized the results at the local representative office of the Foreign Ministry. It is easy to guess that the chief counterparty is PRC, which accounts for 75.1% of exports and 95% of imports. Main export goods - mineral products, wood and pulp and paper products, machinery, imported - also machines and equipment, food, s / c raw materials.
Actually, Chinese territories bordering Russia and Central Asia are another driver of the extremely uneven economic growth of the PRC, economists say. So, for example, high rates demonstrates the Sinjiang-Uygur Autonomous District on the border with Kazakhstan, the inner Mongolia is growing, and the subsoil of which contains 120 types of minerals. The effect of diverging circles from the rapidly developing territories has reached the deep regions recently, says Alexander Butukhanov.
The largest consumer and supplier
If we talk about the global effects of China to Russia, then it is primarily about the supply of raw materials on our part. In 2013, for example, 281.2 million tons of crude oil were imported into the PRC for $ 219.63 billion (hereinafter, the prices are mainly represented in 2013, since it was more stable for the crisis 2014). However, in the first place there was still electrical equipment whose world supplies were estimated at $ 356.04 billion, on the third - supply equipment for $ 74.04 billion.
Over 60% of the volume of Russian exports to China comes to mineral fuel and crude oil. Exports of the latter in 2013 amounted to 24.4 million tons, or $ 19.7 billion, - a tenth of all deliveries. In 2014, the volumes rose by almost a third, up to 33.1 million tons, but due to the fall in prices, the cash exhaust increased only to $ 25.8 billion. In 2015, the volumes will grow even more, predicted in HSE, but the response flow of money will still be Jext.
By the way, in May RF Saudi Arabia. In terms of oil production. Cooperation with China in the oil sphere is so dense that Russian oil workers are opening accounts in the junctions in the junctions. In October, Bashneft held four tenders for opening accounts in China and Hong Kong's currencies.
As a result, two 20-year-old accounts in the ruble equivalent of 1.812 billion are incremented in the branches of Sberbank and Gazprombank, writes RBC. Two more accounts by 906.2 billion rubles the company opens in Rosbank, one of them in Hong Kong dollars. Earlier, such accounts were opened by Gazprom, Gazprom Neft and Rosneft.
Companies Thus, firstly insured against sanctions, and secondly, it is necessary to believe, prepare for the fact that the yuan is one of the reserve world currencies. Until October 2016, this will not happen, but the IMF has already given a positive conclusion.
Russian-Chinese trade and economic ties are working in a certain ascent, considers the Director General of the Russian Export Center Peter Fradkov. And it's not about raw materials. According to the FCS for the first half of 2015, the export of non-religious goods in the PRC amounted to $ 5.6 billion, it leads to statistics.
However, there are still some imbalance - there are more on imports from China than exporting to it. "The center constantly monitors the situation in order to hear exporters in time and transfer their expectations to the state: the correction of such imbalances should be regulated on state level"Says an expert. And Russia has something to offer. There is an inexhaustible export potential of wood products - today it accounts for about 10% of the total exports to the PRC, fisheries - only about 5%, chemical - about 3%, cellulose, Fertilizers, machinery and energy equipment.
Sources: Rosstat, Central Bank.
Russia depends largely and Russian industrial production. Machinery and technical products are a key export article in the Russian Federation. From 2002 to 2014, the share of these goods has grown from 15.8 to 36.1%. The share of such goods as textile and knitwear, as well as shoes, for the same period fell from about 13 to 6%, but it is necessary to understand that the total exports in the Russian Federation have grown from 3.5 to 53.7% over the years.
But the most significant article of China's global exports - finished industrial products, which accounts for 95% of all exports. China is still remaining the largest assembly site. Of course, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam, where labor is cheaper, is already beginning to qualify for the role of the PRC in this regard. But put them next to China, where the population exceeds 1 billion people, and the infrastructure works like a clock, early.
Money lacks places
Sooner or later, China will be shifted from the position of the main factory of the world, on the other hand, China itself begins to invest intern. One of the fresh examples of oil fields in Iran, from which by the end of the year will remove sanctions. China is actively investing in Africa: from 2003 to 2013, investments in the African infrastructure rose from $ 500 million to $ 20 billion.
In the same year, the import of oil from Africa provided almost a quarter of China's needs. The positions of the continent are close to Russian: 64% of Chinese imports from Africa accounted for oil. The explored reserves are constantly growing here.
Large and small business about Chinese partners:
Chinese partners love gifts very much, we try to walk not with empty hands. But once the real principle came out. We have prepared good gifts for representatives of one large company, and they, concerned, refused. It turned out that shortly before that guide banned them to take any gifts from partners other than branded souvenirs. But there are gifts with which you never have gone - the Chinese are especially appreciated souvenirs with a national flavor. For the Chinese, traditions and culture are generally very important. For example, negotiate in Chinese. We have employees who are fluent in them. The notorious Small Talk is appreciated in the East higher than in Europe, and the speedy transition to the case is perceived as excessive factories. It is easy to show an elementary courtesy: you can ask how the flight has been flying, as the colleagues and with whom you have already met, as the success of the partner in the hobby. There are textbook rules: transfer and take a business card only with two hands, be sure to offer tea. For the Chinese, tea drinking is a sacred ritual, a peculiar wish of good health and well-being of a business partner.
Anna Kuzmina
Deputy Commercial Director "Yandex.Money"
It is difficult to interact with small business with China, we do not deny, but now it is one of the most promising markets with which it is definitely worth working. We cooperate with Chinese partners for more than 5 years. Now more than 40% of all our suppliers are Chinese companies. And it is no coincidence. The so-called B-brands from China are increasingly engaged in their niche in the market, the client doesn't even often want to overpay for the famous name, because the difference in price is huge, and the quality of gadgets is almost the same. In addition, trade with China online retailers is simply profitable. When we began to buy light filters and tripods in China, our margin in these groups increased by 40%. The Chinese are a calm philosophical nation, with which something is extremely difficult to demand. If the goods are cheap and volumetric, it is better to put marriage into the cost and simply dispose of it. It will be cheaper shipping. The main problem with Chinese suppliers is enough high percent Marriage, so you need to carefully choose a partner.
Alexey Bannikov
General Director of GK "Photoklad.ru"
You should always keep what is happening under the most severe control and follow each trifle, up to the text font on the box. If at some point weaken the control over the project - with a probability of 95% it will have to redo it. The Chinese may sincerely understand what the problem is. For them, everything is right. Every trifle needs to be discussed during the negotiations. Even better - show how to do. Sometimes we pointed to a mistake, the Chinese fixed it, but immediately allowed the other. If there is no representative of his representative on the spot, you will have to constantly call production, otherwise the project can generally stall. Higher happiness - find an intelligent accompaniment manager. For some time we successfully worked with one factory, then the deadlines began to delay, there was no result. It turned out that the maintenance manager was changed at the factory, and this is hardly a key person in a joint project. Therefore, you need to carefully choose not so much a factory as accompanying from the Chinese side.
Alexey Aksenov
IRZ General Director (wireless products for the M2M industry)
Our company in China often provides support services for suppliers for large companies from the CIS. It is precisely because negotiations are a very thin area. The price list for the Chinese is not a dogma, but the reason to start the conversation. Learn to talk to them well with them. Clarity, perseverance and logicality are exactly not the trumps. Emotions too. Negotiations must be held in a calm, somewhat slow motion. The Chinese people do not like long contracts, and make them most likely to have them. Therefore, it is necessary to verbally clarify all moments. And let it not be confused that there will be many clarifying questions, the Chinese are ready to patiently answer them. Never try to catch partners in something. The Chinese are immediately separated from such attempts with a deaf wall. The probability that they did not understand something or just inattentively read the contract, high enough, but this is a working situation to which you should always be ready. Even the excitement about misunderstanding can perceive as reproach.
Timofey Kim.
Director of the GK "Tenderpro" in China and Central Asia
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Introduction
If China is evaluated, it is necessary to give an explanation of the GDP growth rates that have been at least 9-10% per annum over the years. In this regard, China is a modern record holder: today's statistics there is no such country that has reached a weighted average rate of real growth over 10% for 20-30 years. This is an example of a successful economy in this regard. But do not forget that China is not the only country of this region. In the Asia-Pacific region, there are enough countries that have achieved almost the same success during 20 to 30 years. The most striking example is Japan, in which from the 50th year to 75th years the rate of annual growth was 8.5%. Korea is also 8.5%, in Taiwan - 9.1% since the 60th year. You should not forget, of course, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia - they all for three decades approached 9% of real GDP growth. So, on the one hand, China is a good example, and on the other, it is just the last example of the Asian high development rates. What explains this dynamics? The answer to this question is the simple formulation - the "Chinese model" of development.
The purpose of this thesis It is an analysis of the causes and essence of China's economic growth. Identification of fundamental growth factors, and the nature of economic reform. In order to answer the questions set, it is necessary first, to determine in stages than is China's economic growth, give brief description The success of the PRC economy over the past 30 years since the beginning of reforms. Secondly, analyze the theories that exist on today, giving their gaze on the cause of growth. To identify the most fully and correctly characterizing the hypothesis and relying on it, to analyze the main reforms adopted in China from the beginning of 1978 on third, to identify and show the main growth factors. By combining the results of the analysis, the answer will be received to the question, which is, the "Chinese" economic development model.
And in conclusion will be considered negative sides Forcing economic growth rates. As the mains, socio-economic problems and the problem of ecology are allocated. The latter is most dangerous in the case of China. The violation of the ecosystem and the cardinal deterioration of the living conditions of the population can lead to destabilization of the political situation in the PRC and the loss of the confidence of the people to the Government.
Economic "Miracle" of China
China economic growth characteristic
October 1, 2010 was 61 years old since the formation of the People's Republic of China. In 1949, the People's Republic of China was a backward, semi-pectile and semi-colonial country. The economy was in complete ruin, the people lived in extreme poverty, and the average life expectancy of the population was only 35 years.
The half-century path of development of China was glorious and thorny. There were great achievements, but there were large miscalculations. In particular, from 1966 to 1976, the abilityr in politics, ideology, culture led to the cultural revolution, which caused the most serious moral and economic damage to the state and the people over the entire period from the moment of the formation of the PRC. The country again was on the verge of economic destruction.
Table. 1. GDP dynamics for the period 1966-1976 (in%)
When the "cultural revolution" ended, questions arose in front of the Chinese people: what is socialism, where to go on to China. In December 1978, Deng Xiaopin as the head of the ruling party gave answers to these questions. Knowing the history and real reality of China, deeply analyzing the experience and lessons of the world socialist movement, he put forward the policy of reform and openness, indicated the way of building socialism with the Chinese specifics, the construction of a socialist market economy. China with his enormous population and limited arable land could only be followed along the path of socialism. Western capitalism not only could not solve the problem of its development, but also would lead to destruction.
Dan Xiaopin called for the liberation of the consciousness of people, the stereotypes layer in the concept of socialism of the Soviet model. He again declared that poverty is not socialism. To build socialism, which would have an advantage over capitalism, you must, first of all, get rid of poverty. The peculiarity of China is that when he joined the path of socialism, then in terms of productive forces far behind developed countries. Therefore, China will be at the initial stage of socialism for a long time, where the development of productive forces is the most urgent task.
Dan Xiaopin performed for a realistic approach, noting that China does not accept capitalism of Western type. But it should be widely open to the whole world to borrow advanced management methods, the best achievements of science and technology, attract foreign capital from all countries of the world, in particular developed capitalist countries, in order to accelerate the development of productive forces in the country. He emphasized that everything that promotes the development of socialist productive forces, an increase in the aggregate power of the state and the living standards of the people, well.
The implementation of the ideas of Dan Xiaopin, led China to a breakthrough in the development of the economy and social progress over the past 30 years. Nowadays, the PRC becomes a powerful regional superpower, rapidly occupying the place of Japan as the leader of the Asia-Pacific region. For 1979-2010 The average annual increase in GDP amounted to about 9.93% http://data.worldbank.org/country/china - World Bank database.
Schedule 1. China's GDP Dynamics for the period 1978-2010
Table. 2. The dynamics of China's GDP in the period 1979-2010.
The phenomenon of rapid economic growth became a distinctive feature of the Chinese "Economic Miracle". It should be noted that the growing commodity mass in its large part was consumed by the domestic market, and the labor productivity remained, before the reforms of reforms, he grew up from 2% to 3.8% per year, providing up to 43% of the growth of national income. This favorably distinguished the Chinese economy from other Asian countries. Inozemtsy V. L. Limits of "catching up" development. - M.: Economy, 2000
Over the past 30 years, the production of GDP per capita in China has increased by 20.5 times, labor productivity is 3.4 times. Currently solved the problem of nutrition and clothing; Big successes achieved in the elimination of poverty. The vital level of the population is rapidly rising. The deficit of goods has disappeared, currently under the overwhelming majority of goods in the proposal and demand, there is a balance and even exceeding the offer. China ahead of all countries in the world in the production of grain, cotton, oilseeds, meat, coal, steel, chemical fibers, yarn, fabric, clothing, cement, televisions and programmable switches; And for electricity and chemical fertilizers - in second place.
In the field of science and technology, China has reached a global level or approached it in areas such as nuclear and space technology, high-energy physics, biology, computing equipment and telecommunications. total amount Import and exports for 2010 was 2.813 trillion. dollars, and active balance foreign trade amounted to 199 billion dollars. China in 2010 went to second place in the world in terms of exports, which amounted to 1.506 trillion. dollars, and in the third place in terms of imports, which make up 1.307 trillion. dollars http://data.worldbank.org/country/china - World Bank Database.
Since the beginning of the policy of reform and openness, foreign capital is used in China in a total aggregate in the amount of over $ 806 billion. In 2010, China ranked second in the world after the United States across the scale of attracted foreign capital. In terms of currency savings and gold reserves, China is in the first place in the world: as of 2010, they reached 2.622 trillion. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/The-World-FactBook/Geos/ch.html. China has become the third largest economy in the world back in 2007, overtaking Germany in terms of GDP. And in September 2008, the People's Republic of China became the largest foreign investor in US State Blinking.
According to the main health indicators, China is among the developing countries in the forefront. The average life expectancy rose twice as compared with 1949 and amounted to 73 years.
The successes achieved by the Chinese economy over the past twenty years are certainly indisputable. The stable development of the country indicates that the state leaders took into account many lessons arising from both the experience of their neighbors and from unsuccessful attempts to reform the Soviet economy. There are numerous forecasts, the authors of which are inclined to predict the future place in the Chinese economy on the world arena. According to their forecasts - in ten or even fifteen years - China will overtake the United States in terms of GNP. However, it should be borne in mind that similar predictions were built in the late 70s in relation to Japan and that the unproduction of the country of the rising Sun exchange of 1987 was also considered an indicator of its indestructible stability. Inozemtsy V. L. Limits of "catching up" development. - M.: Economy, 2000 Meanwhile, after ten years, there is no trail from the signs of the former well-being, and the leading role of the United States in the global economy only strengthened.
Therefore, today, without bringing the importance of Chinese reforms, it is necessary to take into account that the Reformation of the Chinese Society is identical to the evolution of any country that implements the "Cutting Development" policy, and for this reason should not be expected from China to achieve the dominant position in economic system of the present.
(3 votes)The main factors of the phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy are as follows.
The first factor is the effective role of the state in the economy, which actively influenced and affects the flowing processes at all stages of economic reform. In the Chinese theory of reforms to designate the role of the state, the term is used " comprehensive system Macroeconomic control carried out at the expense of economic levers. " Chinese leaders gradually step by step as the need of the need to build a market (institutes, competition, private property) and were maintained in parallel and modernized state enterprises.
Supporters of "shock therapy", including four main elements: price liberalization, liberalization of foreign trade and exchange rate, the denationalization and privatization of state-owned enterprises, carrying out non-inflatable macroeconomic policies, believe that this is enough to quickly align the price structure to world-class and construction of market institutions And then the market will regulate economic processes. Followers of a shock model understand that the privatization of state enterprises will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment until the private sector starts absorbing excessive labor. So the smaller will be transitional periodMoreover, according to supporters of "shock therapy", the stabilization of the economy will come. For example, Jeffrey Sax argued it like this: "If you are going to cut off the tail, it is better to do it in one fellible than cutting with pieces." It is believed that since pain will be short-term, political opposition reforms will soon go out, and not having time to cancel reforms.
Chinese supporters of "gradualism" argue that the four above-mentioned elements of the "shock therapy" are not necessarily introduced simultaneously and instantly. They believe that the process should pass gradually, the sector behind the sector, stretching for many years, and at this time (before the launch of the market autopilot) the role of the state is exceptionally large. The "gradual" approach can be characterized by four principles. First, the price reform may be incomplete and gradual (system of parallel prices in China). Secondly, the emergence of foreign competitors in the domestic market should be gradually not to lead to the collapse of the national industry. Thirdly, the privatization of state-owned enterprises is not necessary at the first stage of reforms, and private property may not develop instead of state, but together. Fourth, the transition to market economy Can be carried out without excessively tight macroeconomic policies: " money-credit policy It may not be tough or mild, but supporting the necessary production country. " Fifth, the order (priorities) of reforms is important, synchronization means not the simultaneity of all reforms, but their consistent mutual influence. In China, rural reform preceded urban, price - property reform and property rights. At the same time, it is impossible for individual reform links to others, and some, on the contrary, lagged behind.
Depending on the stage of formation of market mechanisms, the functions of the Chinese state and especially the form of their implementation changed. Direct management methods were replaced by indirect, policy planning - indicative planning and forecasting, the center of gravity of state intervention was transferred from the microeconomic level to the level of macroeconomic regulation and, the main, administrative methods of regulation economic processes Replaced with market.
The analysis shows that the system of public administration existing at all stages of Chinese reforms was adequate to the objectives of the country's economic modernization, which made it possible to turn China into a modern powerful state.
The second factor is considerable resources / labor / with a constant increase in their quality and low salary (excess labor in the labor market allowed and allows wages low). The physical growth of the population and the movement of the workforce from employing districts into new growth points were provided in the period 1978-1988. About third GDP growth.
The third factor is a high share of savings and investments (above 30% of GDP), supplemented by effective strategies for attracting foreign investment, primarily in high-tech industries. According to the estimates of many Chinese specialists, there are also about a third of GDP growth.
The fourth factor is the openness of the economy (Kaifan Zhese), based on an export-oriented model of development, involving the increase in the economy of the economy, mastering the latest information and communication technologies, the introduction of modern industrial logistics schemes.
The fifth factor is a favorable territorial-natural location. Equally important in China's successes has geographical position Its territory. In the historical process of the formation of its territory, expansion in the southern and northwestern direction gave the country to the country to the Pacific Ocean, the shortest terrestrial paths from the shores of the Pacific Ocean were turned out to be in its territory. China has the third territory in the world (after Russia and Canada).
China has a number of large fuel (oil, coal, gas), a variety of ore and nonmetallic mineral deposits (tungsten, lead, zinc, vanadium, titanium, tin, molybdenum, nickel), as well as building materials (gypsum, barite, phosphate ores, mica, asbestos, kaolin). According to potential hydroresours, China belongs to the first place in the world. However, in terms of the per capita, China is not so rich in natural resources, especially water, forest and land (fertile and suitable) resources.
Thus, the Chinese practice of economic growth is simple and does not contradict the theory: due to savings of the population and foreign Chinese (Huanceo), the state has shuting up the infrastructure and stimulated the creation of new jobs in the parallel to the public sector, which supplied its products to export, and the currency revenue directed to Procurement of new technologies and upgrades. Gradually grew up the level of consumption, which increased domestic demand and stimulated the influx of new investments already in the face of the world TNC, which they have crafted access to the giant Chinese market.
Due to the long period of sustainably high GDP growth (highest in the world) and exports (Fig. 1.5), absolute and relative size of savings and investments, including foreign, involvement in industrial production and the sphere of services of millions of population (Table 1.1), China It was possible to create a modern industry, significantly expand and improve the infrastructure (insert 1.1), create a variety industrial industriespreviously absent in the country and thereby significantly increase the share of industry and services in GDP (Table 1.1).
* Accumulation fund in national income.
** According to Chinese statistics Primary sector - rural and forestry, the secondary sector - industry, energy, construction, tertiary - services, transport, education, health care.
Source of Chinese statistics.
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Interesting video about the development of China
According to the latest official information, the growth of China's economy has developed so rapidly that today everything in one voice says that it is China's economy as a whole world! The question than explains the rapid growth of China's economy is not too complicated in modern worldSince, after analyzing market prices and parity of the purchasing power of this country, it immediately becomes clear that China must lead the world ranking.
How to explain the rapid growth of China's economy?
World economic development professionals argue that China's economic growth rates have increased so much latelyEven currency courses, especially the dollar, can not affect the fluctuation of the Chinese economy in the leading positions in the world. Some of them adhere to the opinions that soon this country will even manage to overtake the financial indicators of Japan's GDP.
Most recently, the director of the state currency Office China declared that it was his country that became the owner of the second economy in the world. But despite this, he noted that the Chinese government is ready for the fact that afterwards the growth of the economic situation in the country, China will have to experience some slowdown in such a rapid development trend. national Economy.
But, despite the speech of the representative of the Chinese government, it is also impossible to say exactly and confidently that the country will manage to overtake the economy of Japan, which has been holding a leadership position in the world for four decades. Today it becomes clear that the purchasing power parity is an explicit indicator that China is actually ranked second among world economies. The reason why it was not yet officially said that it was this country that is one of the world's leaders, it is that at the moment China's economic indicators are constantly underestimated.
Rapid growth: China's economy
To date, China's GDP's comparative GDP has almost reached Japan's GDP: 4,900 trillion dollars against 5.080 trillion dollars. As for Chinese economists, they declare that in order for their country to finally be able to bypass Japan in the world economy rating, it is necessary to eliminate the main obstacle that is in the yen.
According to the United Nations report, it is China together with India will become the territories where the most rapid economic growth will occur. In addition, it should be paid to the fact that the main thing is that the rapid growth of China's economy is explained, it is that the government of the country has determined such a promising goal for himself. Without a doubt, Chinese officials managed to achieve obvious success towards achieving the final goal: in 2010, the Chinese economy became the third largest in the world. To date, the tendency towards rapid and rapid growth is increasingly increasing.
Thus, economic growth was 8%, as was planned by the Government of China. At the same time, industrial production increased by as much as 11%, which was previously promised to the Minister of Industry China.
Despite the fact that during a constantly developing economy, China was acutely threatened by the recession, she managed, after all, to preserve a fairly impressive growth rate of the national economy. Improve the state of the economy The government began with the adoption of a special package of stimulating the economy and sharp growth of bank lending.
To date, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy is scheduled due to the growth of foreign trade turnover, especially exports by 15%. Due to the rapid economic growth of China, the coefficient of unemployed population increases in other states. In addition, for the same reason other countries lose their influence on the global market. That is why financial experts predict that in the near:
- china is expecting numerous disputes related to trade;
- the Chinese government will have to answer for violations of the Rules of Free Trade;
- the Chinese government will have to deal with economic overheating, which consists of rapid inflows and growth of money supply.
Violations of free trade are already known today: Beijing forces its American colleagues to sell books, films and music solely in collaboration with Chinese state-owned companies.
But, despite some problems that appear in the Chinese economy, the government successfully manages them. So, recently, the expected results have been observed, that is, consumers increase their expenses. According to official information, the Chinese government plans to increase consumption by its population in order to turn the national economy into an economic growth engine.
In addition, it should be noted that the Government currently exercises a large-scale program for state stimulation of GDP growth. Thus, it prepares the country's entire economy to very strict structural reforms that will be able to free the economy of the role of exports and investment in it. In the future, it is planned to increase investment abroad to ensure sufficient profitability of its foreign exchange reserves. In addition, the government is configured to acquire securitieswho are in possession of commodity companies.
