The fall of the ruble exchange rate on the dollar and the euro caused a wave of discussions and forecasts regarding the currency exchange rate for 2015. Despite the currency interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the ruble walked down in December 2015 and, compared with December 2014, when 33 rubles were given for one dollar, fell by almost 100% - up to 65 rubles.
Financial analysts give different forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate to the dollar for 2015. Someone predicts based on oil prices, someone proceeds from new sanctions from the West, and someone builds its assessment from all listed factors, including an exacerbate situation in the East of Ukraine.
The most pessimistic forecast is 100 rubles for $ 1 to the spring of 2015 (although there are particularly gifted analysts that complain this figure at the end of New Year holidays).
The latest news is that the UAE allows for the fall of oil prices up to $ 40 per barrel of oil, and does not agree to reduce production. This means that the forecast of the dollar's course at the beginning of 2015 is 100 rubles quite real.
Do not write off from the accounts of sanction by the European Union and the United States, who banned the banks of the Russian Federation to take long-term loans In the currency. This factor limits the influx foreign capital on the russian marketThat also worsens the forecast at the cost of the dollar in 2015.
Against the background of the growth of the cost of the currency, purchasing prices for components, clothing and products will grow and - and this means that in 2015 prices will grow on most of the goods of everyday demand, and the growth of the dollar's course will go to the background. It is just nothing to buy.
However, experts hope that after the spring 2015 the cost of the dollar is adjusted and the ruble will begin to strengthen. In turn, citizens of the Russian Federation hope for non-repetition of the 1997 default, when the ruble depreciated 5 times a week.
- View the forecast course of the dollar on new Year 2015
- View the forecast of the dollar for January 2015
In 2019, it is becoming increasingly harder and more difficult to predict the fall or growth. russian currency.
Because today's situation is rather strange and at the same time has a terrifying scale. The main keys of the negative state of the Russian economy on this moment You can count:
- These are the problems from the return of the Crimea, from which the economy begins to suffer and gradually the entire population of Russia.
- The fall in oil prices to which the course of the Russian currency is directly attached.
- Highly low level The economic rule of Russia cannot cope with numerous problems that cannot take decisive measures to stabilize the ruble.
Such a mixture of problems is very devastating for the economy of any country.
Let's look at how this whole situation has developed with the depreciation of the Russian currency.
Back in 2013 and the end of 2014, the course calmly kept at a mark from 32 to 31.8 per dollar, but Russian analysts assumed that the change of such peace of depreciation at the beginning of next year was coming. Some of the economists began to beat the alarm, because it was noticeable to reduce the growth of Russian GDP, the rapidly growing level of outflow of money outside the country and the plans of the Central Bank on the transition to the floating exchange rate of the ruble. Such events led to a deterioration economic indicators in future.
Already in the fall of 2014, the dollar rate to the ruble is hardly not every day began to beat historical maxima, because the price of oil fell sharply, the investment did not come, and foreign lenders asked their money back, which Russian businessmen had decently gained. Plus to all, sanctions that, one way or another, poured oils into the fire to other issues. This situation is far from strengthening the currency of any country, as a result, we received 43 per dollar ...
What awaits the ruble in the future?
Now after the global deterioration in the economy on all fronts, of course, no improvement can be.
Consider the spring 2019. Many experts believe that the current spring will be characterized only by the deterioration of the economic situation. After all, due to low prices for oil, which is not going to go in the near future (and this is $ 60 per barrel), there has been a deterioration in relations with the largest economic partner - Ukraine, an increase in the costs of Crimea, the further depreciation of the shares of the largest russian companies "Mechel", Sistema, Bashneft, etc., the further outflow of the Russian population deposits from banks.
Therefore, by April 2019, it is predicted from 65 to 71 rubles to the dollar, respectively, forecasts for May reach 67-72 rubles to the dollar.
Out of such a situation
Many experts beat the alarm and say that it will only be worse, but only a very small percentage of free economists offers its own solutions to the default situation in the country. All analysts put forward an identical solution to the problem, and this is:
- serious and decisive measures of the central bank aimed at stabilizing the economic situation;
- an important fact is the desire of the country's board improve this situation. However, on the last events, we only see a miserable attempt to show yourself in the best light, and no one does serious steps;
- you need to make maximum forces to reduce political pressure on Russia. Although we see that the government only pours oil into the fire.
On this opinion of experts diverges: Some people think that the current economic rule does everything possible, according to all its strange stroke, and the other half thinks not so limited and understands that everything economic problems Russia of the present time has a purely political nature.
It is necessary to note the aspect of Russia's dependence on natural resources. Unfortunately, at the moment the course is due natural resourcesAnd it needs to be changed, because the further fate of the economy will depend on it.
The dollar rate to the ruble will fall as long as the government of our country will take decisive steps to stabilize the situation on currency market. In addition, every person must realize that the well-being of the country in the future depends on him, because thoughtless deposits and dollars and the exchange of dollars also negatively affect the development of the economy and strengthening the national currency.
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One of the most popular issues that attract considerable attention is the future of the dollar.
Trends in the foreign exchange market, where in the fall of last year there is a rapid reduction in the cost of the ruble, they are of interest among leading experts and analysts. Various options for the development of events are voiced, from return to level 45 rubles / dollars, to fantastic 200 rubles / dollars.
In the near future, the trends in the foreign exchange market can occur. As a result of the position of the national currency in the spring of 2015, they can strengthen. Many factors affect this process, which determine the forecast of the dollar in the spring of 2015.
Dollar Course: Government version
The government is counting on the rapid restoration of the ruble positions. Earlier ministers Anton Siluanov and Alexey Ulyukayev, as well as the head of government Dmitry Medvedev Expressed confidence in the soon return to the frontier 51 rubles / dollars. Such a course, according to officials, is economically justified, and after the panic in the market ceases, the ruble stabilizes about this value.
One of the key parameters that affects the position of the ruble is the price of oil. The updated budget contains the cost of "black gold" $ 60 / Barr. However, 1 barrel of Brent Oil Brent dropped up to $ 50 in turn analytics Merrill Lynch. It allows for further decrease in quotations, which by spring will be devastated to $ 40. With this scenario, the ruble is unlikely to be put in the framework of government forecasts.
Alternative opinions experts
IN banking sector Also expected to strengthen the national currency. However, the experts of the Aperc (Economic Forecasting Agency) are counting on the implementation of a more pessimistic scenario. In the spring of this year, the dollar will be in the range of 76-78 rubles per dollars. The forecast of the euro's course in the spring of 2015 will approach the mark of 90 rubles / euro. Such an assessment of the events is caused by current trends in the market and actions of the Central Bank.
Economist shared his vision of the situation in the foreign exchange market Igor Nikolaev. According to the expert, in the spring of 2015 will not be strengthened by the position of the ruble. Moreover, national currency Continue to lose its cost. The forecast of the dollar for the spring of 2015 is in the range of 70-80 rubles / dollars. Nikolaev emphasizes that the devaluation of the ruble will be accompanied by a high level of inflation, which reaches a two-digit value.
Improving the situation, according to the expert, can cause one of three factors: cancellation of sanctions during the first half of 2015, an increase in the cost of oil or the restoration of the domestic economy can lead to an improvement in the positions of the national currency.
A more optimistic look is adhered to financial analyst Vladislav Zhukovsky. The most likely scenario by the spring of 2015, the expert considers the restoration of the ruble position to 45-50 rubles / dollars. This option can be realized when rebounding prices for "black gold" to the expected mark of $ 80 / Barr. Also Zhukovsky does not exclude the implementation of more negative scenarios, within which the course may drop to 80 rubles per dollars, but the probability of their implementation is significantly lower.
January 26, 2015 S & P. He lowered the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation to "BB +", which means that the number of investments in Russia can significantly reduce that in turn will definitely not in favor of the ruble.
Tass dossier. In 2015, the main fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate towards the dollar and the euro were associated with a change in oil prices. In total, at the end of the year, the Russian currency was depreciated against the dollar by 29.7%, to euros - by 16.5%.
Fall of the ruble in January-February
On January 1, 2015 central bank RF set dollar rate in the amount of 56.24 rubles, euro - 68.37 rubles. January 13, on the first day after graduation new Year's holidaysDue to the continued fall in the cost of oil on the world market, the Central Bank recorded the dollar rate at 62.73 rubles. (height 11.53%), Euro - 74.35 rubles. (Height 8.74%), after which the Russian currency continued to be cheaper. The peak of the fall of the ruble in early 2015 came on February 3, when the Central Bank set a dollar rate of 69.66 rubles. and euro - 78.79 rubles.
Strengthening the ruble in spring and summer
The Russian currency began to strengthen in late February. The RUK RUK in 2015 came to April-May. April 17, the euro dropped to 52.9 rubles. May 20 US dollar cost 49.18 rubles.
Bank of Russia explained the strengthening of the ruble with stabilization of world oil prices, the completion of the peak of payments for external debt, an increase in key bet, more uniform sales currency revenue Exporters, as well as the development of currency refinancing tools.
On May 14, 2015, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the first time since the summer of 2014 began to buy a currency in the domestic currency market (on average - $ 200 million and euros per day). In just July 28, an inclusive regulator bought $ 10 billion and euros, after which he stopped interventions.
New drop of ruble
From early June to mid-July, oil prices were stable. The dollar rate fluctuated at the level of 52-55 rubles, and the euro - 60-62 rubles. However, the resulting fall in oil prices caused by investors' fears with an overweight of its supply in the market, as well as instability on stock markets The PRC and the devaluation of the yuan on August 11, led to weakening and Russian currency.
The sharp drop in the ruble exchange rates occurred on August 24, after the decrease in the Brent oil quotes below $ 50 per barrel. On August 25, 2015, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the dollar rate of 70.75 rubles. (For the first time in history, the course was exceeded at 70 rubles.), Euro - 81.15 rubles.
In September-November, the American currency rate has stabilized at 65-67 rubles, in mid-October even lowered to a level of 61.1 rubles.
The euro course has also dropped below 80 rubles below. In September, he cost 73-76 rubles, and in October-November - 69-70 rubles.
The largest fluctuations in the course for the year
The lowest dollar and euro rate in 2015 was recorded on May 20 (49.18 rubles) and April 17 (52.9 rubles), respectively. The highest rate of the dollar and the euro - December 31 (72.92 rubles) and August 25 (81.15 rubles), respectively.
Except for the decline in the ruble rate at the opening of trading after the end of the New Year holidays in 2015, the largest daytime decals of the official exchange rate in relation to the dollar were recorded on February 6 (by 4.83%, 3.16 rubles.) And April 22 (on 4, 76%, 2.45 rubles). At the same time, the most Russian currency grew in relation to the dollar on April 24 (by 3.83%, 2.05 rubles.) And February 7 (3.74%, 2.57 rubles). In relation to the euro most large drops The ruble was recorded on August 25 (by 5.85%, 4.48 rubles.) and June 5 (by 4.79%, 2.83 rubles), the strongest growth - January 24 (by 5.1%, 3, 87 rub.) And April 24 (by 4.5%, 2.59 rubles.).
Current course
On January 1, 2016, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation established the official dollar rate of 72.93 rubles. (absolute record), Euro - 79.64 rubles.
Many large banks Contribute to the dollar further steady growth both relative to the Russian currency and about the euro. How justified similar predictions? Should it be unreserved to trust and urgently translate savings to the bucks?
Let's try to figure out the situation without leaving emotions.
Forecasts about the pair of Dollar-ruble for spring 2015
Bank Goldman Sachs (USA) declares: throughout January, February and March for the dollar will give on average 70 rubles Instead of 46.2 in previous calculations. In the six-month range, for the period from January to the end of Spring, Goldman Sachs promises a course of 65 rubles (before it was about 47.7).
Commercial Danske Bank (Denmark) and at all argues that in March will be overcome eighty-bone frontier. "Wooden" will update the historical minimum - 80.1 rubles. For a dollar dated December 16, 2014 - due to fall.
Position of Russian experts
Valery Petrov, Chairman of the Consultation Council of Shareholders of JSC VTB, says: "The ruble is unlikely to strengthen more than 15-20%, subject to the return of oil to $ 70-80 per barrel." However, he also rightly notes:
So far, no "catastrophic" events did not happen. For comparison, in 1998-1999, the ruble depreciated 4 times from 7 to 28 rubles, now the situation is better.
Representatives of the Russian branch of the International Monetary Fund say:
The measures taken begin to work - I mean and enhance the key bet, and support banking system, and the provision of currency liquidity market participants. All this supports the ruble, and probably will support in the future.
Believes in regulatory mechanisms and managing financial group Companies "Allor" Sergey Hestov:
Now the arsenal of receptions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for currency currency currency loans greatly expanded: currency swaps and currency repo were added. To draw conclusions about the effectiveness of new techniques while early, but the very fact of expansion of the toolkit suggests that the Central Bank is looking for growth containment mechanisms currency ratenot related to the need to spend foreign exchange reserves.
The official position of the Central Bank also encouraging. The first deputy chairman of Ksenia Yudaeva emphasizes:
The main dynamics are already passed, and the stabilization will occur completely in the near future (in the first and early second quarter), then movement to a more equilibrium level.
Perspectives of the dollar against the background of other currencies
In 2015, the dollar, in all likelihood, will increase relatively eurorality. Weakening € is prepared by the policy of "cheap money." which is conducted by the ECB. "Cheap money" of the European central Bank Fall the market since the summer of 2014.
The unsubstantial position of the euro does not guarantee a rapid take-off for the dollar. According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs, in the spring of 2015, the interest of global investors will not be sent as much as $ as on other currencies. Reorientation on an extended portfolio will be the result of a significant strengthening of Mexican peso, Chinese yuan, british pounda sterling.
