It is worth entering gold only for a year, since 18% of vat and then if there is a lot of extra money and you cannot find a better use for it, most here go in $ on short positions, and they will still be 65 or 75, They will find their benefit, and the ruble is now oil, and we are all looking forward to Iranian oil,))), no one will say about the Fed now, in my opinion, all this is in expectation, but if they foolishly raise it, it is dangerous to sit in $ for a long timeSo I was born. I am not an analyst, but I will tell you my point of view. During my time on the site (about 4 months) I saw that analysts' forecasts come true approximately in a 50/50 proportion. The dollar is in the corridor of 50-70 rubles. And even now, with oil at 42.5, the dollar is only 68.5. Thus, I think that the dollar should be dropped around 12/16/15, a little earlier or a little later. Arguments:
1. Payment of external debt should end, I believe, until 25.12 (Catholic Christmas, and then New Year's holidays). At this time, the demand for the dollar will fall - remember 2014 - 12/16/14 exchange rate over 70, and already 12/25. course 52.5.
2. During the New Year holidays, there will be no interest in the dollar - until 12.01. it should be low.
3. After the New Year holidays, enthusiasm is on the rise, everyone goes to the auction. and remember their favorite dollar.
4. At the beginning of spring, the dollar depreciates, as a rule (look at the charts of previous years, and in the spring of 2015).
5. Oil will not be able to hold on for a long time. low levels- this is not interesting for large players, plus a recession is followed by a rise, and a strong recession, as a rule, is a strong rise.
6. Taking into account the fact that the price of oil includes the fact of entering the Iranian market, + arguments of point 5 - oil will rise, albeit for a short time.
7. Low oil prices will strangle the SGA shale producers, but then OPEC will raise prices when there is no competitor.
8. Geopolitical factor - our positions in the world are not so weak, at the very least, we are at war with ISIS, there are some partners, the SGA and their vassals react to our actions, they cannot calculate everything.
9. Even if the Fed raises the rate - within the next 3 months the dollar will fall in price by about 10% - there were messages earlier on the forum, the graphs of the increase of the past years were given. I read the analytics - when rates increase, investors run to stock market, it rises accordingly, the dollar falls to the equilibrium level.
10. Whatever one may say, the dependence on the dollar of our economy is weakening, judging by the reports, they want to build planes, and the energy bridge was quickly brought to Crimea, and Agriculture kind of on the rise. Whatever one may say, but the sanctions kicked us in the right direction, as they say, life makes us.
11. Elections to the SGA - under this tune they can weaken the dollar, and blame everything on the previous administration, plus nobody canceled the gigantic debt, weakening the dollar is easier to get rid of the debt (I still think primitively).
Summary: it is necessary to throw off the dollar in the area of the Fed meeting, on new year holidays bribe, and at the beginning of the year to look at the conjuncture, it is possible to go into gold, it is now at the lows, but it is gold, and it was worth 1,800 per ounce before.
Your opinions, adjustments, criticism, dear colleagues, speculators, savings (depending on the amount of dollars each). I listen carefully.
Financial experts believe that December 2015 will not be the most successful month in the history of the Russian currency. Most analysts believe that the ruble against the dollar by the end of the year will be 69-72 rubles. for one American dollar. As for the euro, the range of fluctuations here is much wider due to many factors independent of each other.
The last month of the year is usually negative for the ruble, but in 2015 there were several significant events that significantly influenced the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Two of these events - the meetings of OPEC and the ECB - have already ended, their results have negatively affected the rate of the Russian currency. In the first week of December alone, the ruble lost 2.6% against the dollar and 5.3% against the European currency.
There are still two important events for the ruble exchange ahead: the meeting of the American regulator and the decision of the Central Bank of Russia regarding the change in the discount rate. How these and other factors affect the rate of the Russian currency, as well as what the rate will be at the end of 2015 - the answer to these questions was given by financial experts.
Vitaly Kalugin, independent financial analyst, adheres to the following opinion: “I do not think that the Central Bank of Russia will go to reduce the discount rate. This will have a positive effect on the ruble, but this impact will be short-term. I do not expect a key rate hike from the US Federal Reserve System.
Most likely, the ruble exchange rate closer to the New Year holidays will be in the range of 68-70 rubles per dollar and 73-75 rubles per euro. If the Fed does raise the rate, the ruble will weaken by another 2 rubles. "
Alexander Prokopyev, financial analyst at Bankinform portal: “OPEC has decided not to lower quotas for oil production, this has already affected the price of“ black gold ”, but the current price level is not final. For oil quotes, such a decision is a kind of signal of a further decline in prices. Most likely, they will remain near the 2015 lows for a long time. It is highly unlikely that prices will go up by the end of the year, so the oil foreign exchange earnings will not be able to support the ruble exchange rate.
The payment of external debts will negatively affect the ruble exchange rate - in December 20.7 billion dollars must be repaid.
The decision of the Central Bank of Russia will not affect the ruble exchange rate in any way. Most likely, the key rate will remain at 11%. The decline, if it happens, will be symbolic, it will practically not affect the rate of the Russian currency.
The decision of the US Federal Reserve regarding the size of the key rate may have a significant impact on currency pair dollar-ruble. If the Americans decide to raise the key rate, the dollar will rise sharply. If the decision to increase is not taken, then a short-term drop in the dollar rate against most world currencies is expected, but the American currency will be able to return to its current indicators in a short time.
The exchange rate dynamics are influenced by many events, so it is quite difficult to make a forecast about the value of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. I believe that for 1 dollar they will give 69-72 rubles, and for 1 euro - 73-76 rubles. "
Ivan Nesterovich, Head of the Department for Currency and Financial Operations commercial bank"Ring of the Urals": “The main impact on the ruble exchange rate will be the cost of oil, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation regarding the size of interest rates, preparation of corporations for the upcoming payments of external debt.
Most likely, the Bank of Russia will leave the rate at the current level, the US Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise the key rate. Due to the rate increase, oil prices will go down, which will hit the stability of the ruble exchange rate.
Therefore, my forecast for the beginning of next year is that 1 US dollar will cost 69-72 rubles, 1 euro - 75-78 rubles. "
Published on 11/9/15 08:11 AMExchange rates for today, November 9, 2015: financiers gave a forecast about what kind of jumps in the ruble exchange rate should be expected in the outgoing year.
The dollar exchange rate set by the regulator for today is 63.68 rubles, the euro exchange rate on November 9, 2015 - 69.25 rubles.
The dollar exchange rate in Sberbank on November 9, 2015 is 62.50 rubles. upon purchase and 66.95 rubles. when sold by a bank; euro exchange rate today - 67.15 rubles. and 71.95 rubles. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.
The forecast of the dollar rate until the end of 2015 was given by a financial analyst
In the opinion financial analyst Sergey Suverov, today the ruble can show intcbatch both strengthening and weakening within a few tens of kopecks. At the same time, more serious fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Russian currency should be expected in the future.
"They are predicted, in particular, by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 77 percent of them believe that until oil prices begin to significantly recover, the Fed will say for sure that the rate will rise, and Ukraine will leave the political agenda, the ruble will fluctuate. But serious volatility of the ruble requires serious volatility in oil prices. An increase in the FRS rate and payments on external debt will negatively affect the ruble, but stable oil will neutralize the danger of this news, "- quoted by Suverova" Rossiyskaya Gazeta ".
Thus, according to him, "we can say that the national currency will fluctuate within 3-5 rubles against the dollar and against the euro."
The euro and the dollar continue to decline amid rising oil prices. On Friday, the euro renewed its one and a half-year low, dropping below 66 rubles, the dollar rate dropped to 63 rubles, according to trading data on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Euro renews lows
As told in an interview with a journalist FBA "Economics Today" Head of the Exchange Market Department of Investment Company "Finam" Sergey Dorogavtsev At the end of this year, the dollar and the euro prepared a big surprise, which will be unpleasant for speculators and pleasant for those who are planning to buy foreign currency.
According to the analyst, another currency “New Year rally” is not expected this year. “In 2014 and 2015, we had a kind of“ New Year rally ”in the dollar, when quotes were off the charts. Speculators have already managed to make money on this twice - it is obvious that now they intend to ride the quotes up for the third time, but I think that this time the market will act in a completely different way. Anyone who expects the dollar to rise by the end of December will be severely punished. Apparently, we will not see any rapid growth on the eve of the New Year: most likely, both the dollar and the euro will remain at about the same levels where they are traded now. Although if the dollar drops below 60 rubles, it will also be a huge surprise, ”sums up Sergei Dorogavtsev.
The official euro rate set by the Central Bank for the weekend and Monday was 67.2086 rubles, the dollar rate - 63.3028 rubles. The reason for the strengthening of the ruble against the main reserve currencies was the rise in oil prices, which are now about $ 54.5 per barrel on the eve of the meeting of representatives of the OPEC countries. On Sunday in Vienna, the cartel will discuss with non-OPEC states measures to stabilize the oil market, including a reduction in oil production.
On Friday, the euro updated a 1.5-year low
Forecasts of New Year's exchange rates
“Now the dollar continues to decline, the support line for the American currency is at the level of 62 rubles. If the trend of the last few days continues, then the next stop of the dollar will happen just around 62 rubles. How long it will be can be said only when the dollar reaches this level. There is a very powerful support line there, which was formed sometime in May of this year. Several times the dollar bumped against her and could not break through, but now he again came very close to her. If this time it passes it, then the next support line for the dollar is 60 rubles, after it - 55, if the dollar really goes down so significantly.
But I think that such a global decline will not happen, because the Central Bank is interested in stabilizing the exchange rate. Apparently, the Central Bank considers the level of 62-65 rubles per dollar as an equilibrium level for the near future, and I doubt that the dollar will fall significantly below this level.
The Russian currency is depreciating again: for example, at the opening of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Tuesday, December 8, the dollar rate by “tomorrow” settlements rose above 69.5 rubles, the euro rate exceeded 75 rubles. The Bank of Russia raised the official exchange rates on December 9 to 69.3 rubles per dollar and 75.3 rubles per euro. The Village learned what is putting pressure on the Russian currency and what rates to expect by the New Year.
Roman Andrianov
Chief Analyst, G&P Capital
Eduard Matveev
General Director of LLC "Management Company" Custom Capital ""
Dmitry Gurkovsky
analyst at RoboForex
Mikhail Tegin
columnist for the Banki.ru portal
Why is the ruble falling again?
Roman Andrianov: The main driver of the ruble exchange rate change against the euro and the dollar is the oil price. It is falling in price amid OPEC's refusal to cut production quotas. An additional restraining factor is the record growth in US oil reserves. The upcoming lifting of sanctions on Iran in early 2016 does not inspire optimism in the market either: the end of the Tehran oil embargo will mean even greater saturation of the oil market and can push its price even lower. However, we must not forget that the situation in the Middle East is extremely explosive: the escalation of conflicts and the involvement of an increasing number of new parties in them can provoke an increase in demand for oil, coupled with a threat to oil fields.
Eduard Matveev: The decline in oil prices and the need for Russian companies to make foreign currency payments on foreign debts were the main reason for the fall in the ruble, despite the Central Bank's attempts to neutralize payments by resuming foreign currency REPOs. (purchase / sale valuable papers with an obligation to sell / buy back after a certain period of time at a predetermined price. - Approx. ed.). With regard to oil prices, apparently, many analysts were hoping that they would rebound from the lows. Nevertheless, all the prerequisites are still being formed to the fact that oil may drop below $ 35, and possibly even below $ 30 per barrel of Brent mixture.
What happens to the euro to dollar exchange rate
EDUARD MATVEEV: The euro has been weakening against the dollar for at least two years. First of all, this is due to the cycle of strengthening the dollar against most world currencies. The euro is in a global trend in terms of weakening against the dollar. On the other hand, quite a few factors played against the euro in Europe itself: the European Central Bank deliberately reduced interest rates and increased the quantitative bias program (economic stimulus program: purchase financial assets- as a rule, government and corporate bonds - to inject money into the economy. - Approx. ed.)... Relatively speaking, he increased the amount of the euro and reduced its value in order to create inflation and revive the economy by increasing competitiveness. While the European economy could not begin to grow in any way, the American economy, according to statistics, has shown growth over the past two years.
Roman Andrianov: On Thursday, December 3, the euro showed a serious strengthening against the American currency, adding more than 3%. The sharp growth was facilitated by the statement of the chairman of the European Central Bank that the expansion of the quantitative easing program will not be carried out yet, and the rate on deposits of the ECB is reduced to minus 0.3%. In my opinion, the jump of the euro against the dollar is exclusively speculative, since the decline is fundamentally negative rate on deposits should flood the euro market even more, thereby reducing its exchange rate against the dollar. I believe that the fall of the euro against the dollar will continue, and the upcoming appreciation of the dollar will contribute to this due to the extremely likely rate hike by the US Federal Reserve System on December 16, 2015.
How much will the dollar and euro cost by the New Year
Dmitry Gurkovsky: The ruble now has no good reason to strengthen. Ahead is the final of the year, payment of external debts, as well as budget deficit within a decent range - it should not exceed 3% of GDP. Oil renews its annual price lows: it has not been so cheap in the last 12 months. Access to inexpensive loans from Russian companies and there are no enterprises for a long time; its own resources are almost exhausted, and others cannot be counted on. Purchasing power of Russians is insignificant, the unemployment rate may be about to enter the growth phase. At the same time, inflation only increases from month to month. All this negatively affects Russian currency... In December, the dollar may reach the level of 71 and 73 rubles, after which the American currency will return to the area of 67.5-68.5, where, most likely, it will gain a foothold in the New Year.
Eduard Matveev: Giving such a short-term forecast is like trying to guess what will happen to the dollar exchange rate tomorrow. But judging by the way oil prices are moving down, a strong strengthening of the ruble against the dollar by the end of the year is definitely not worth expecting, rather the opposite. On the other hand, technically, the dollar approached a very strong resistance level of about 70 rubles, and so far, I think, it will not be able to break through this level. If oil prices continue to fall, this level is likely to be broken, but this or next year is hard to say.
If The central bank Russia will have a desire to drop the dollar rate by at least a couple of rubles by the end of the year (for example, to strengthen the image of the authorities), he can do it. The market is very narrow and not as liquid as the dollar-euro market, on which billions of dollars circulate and it is difficult to carry out interventions so that the exchange rate will noticeably move somewhere. But the fundamental factors are now playing against the ruble.
When to Change Currency for Vacationers
Eduard Matveev: I would buy at least half of the planned amount now. From the point of view of currency relations, all the negative in relation to the euro has already been taken into account in the low rate of the euro against the dollar. If I were planning a vacation now in six months, I would definitely buy the euro, since the euro has the potential to strengthen not only against the ruble, but also against the dollar.
Dmitry Gurkovsky: There is no point in buying currency now, at the peak of its value: it is too expensive. It is worth waiting for 10-15 days.
Mikhail Tegin: The ruble exchange rate will be influenced, among other things, by the decision of the Central Bank regarding monetary policy at the meeting on December 11. If the regulator cuts the key rate (which, according to the expectations of market participants, is unlikely), a local weakening of the ruble can be predicted. Much will also depend on the message from the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina following the meeting: what will explain the regulator's decision and what is the Central Bank's vision of the future of the Russian economy.
