General Provisions
In accordance with the Work Plan of the FAS Russia to analyze the state of competition in the commodity markets for 2008, approved by the order of the FAS Russia dated January 10, 2008 No. 1, the FAS Russia conducted a study of the Russian Federation for 2007.
When analyzing the state of competition in the specified commodity market, the Department was guided by Order of the FAS Russia dated March 25, 2006 No. 108 "On Approving the Procedure for Analyzing and Assessing the State of the Competitive Environment in the Commodity Market".
1. Determination of product and geographical boundaries of the market.
In various marketing studies of the packaging market for liquid and viscous food products, it is noted that, in general, the packaging market is segmented by types of packaging, determined depending on the materials used as the basis of packaging, for example:
- packaging based on polymeric materials (plastic bottle, plastic cup (RET), plastic bag (Pouch) and others);
- packaging based on paper, cardboard (paper bag);
- glass containers ( Glass bottle, glass jar);
- metal containers (aluminum cans, tin cans).
Each segment of the packaging market corresponding to a certain type of packaging can be considered as a separate product market, which is not interchangeable in terms of raw materials and production technology, which has its own composition of sellers and buyers.
The subject of this study is one of such segments of the packaging market for liquid and viscous food products - cardboard-based packaging, namely, the market for a combined cardboard-based material for packaging liquid and viscous food products (hereinafter - the market for combined packaging material).
The purpose of the market survey is to study the competitive environment in the market for combined packaging material, to determine the saturation of the market with the corresponding domestic product, to determine the share of imported products.
Packaging made from combined packaging material accounts for about half of all packaging products (containers) for liquid and viscous food products. Today, packaging made of combined packaging material, in comparison with other types of packaging, occupies a leading position in terms of use in the dairy and juice industry. For example, 97% of the so-called aseptic milk is packaged in a combined packaging material that provides a milk shelf life of up to 1 year. The use of such packaging provides products with reliable protection against environmental influences, safety and high consumer properties.
Enterprises-producers of dairy, juice, wine products, which are the main buyers (customers) of the combined packaging material, are mostly equipped with technological equipment for bottling (packaging) products, rigidly tied to the type of combined packaging material used. Each of the manufacturers of the combined packaging material, first of all, produces and delivers to the buyer (customer) unique technological equipment (filling line), on which only a certain type of combined material can be used. As a result, buyers of composite material are not able to replace one type of composite material (from one manufacturer) with composite material from another manufacturer. That is why the vast majority of types of composite material (from different manufacturers) are not interchangeable.
Thus, the interdependence of technological lines for the bottling (packaging) of liquid and viscous food products and the possibility of using strictly defined types of combined material on them (the manufacturer of technological equipment is the manufacturer of the combined material) does not allow us to draw a conclusion about the interchangeability different types combined material.
This overview does not analyze the interchangeability of different types of combined packaging material.
The geographic boundaries of the combined packaging material market is the territory of the Russian Federation, and, therefore, the combined packaging material market is considered federal.
The market survey was carried out in 2007.
The product studied in this review - a combined material based on cardboard for packaging liquid and viscous food products, according to Rosstat, does not have an unambiguous correspondence with the commodity groups available in OKPD, OKPD and TNVED of Russia:
"OKP - 54 5344" Combined material: paper or cardboard covered with polyethylene ",
"OKPD - 21.12.56" Paper, cardboard, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibers, coated, impregnated, coated, with a painted surface or with printed signs (patterns), in rolls or sheets ";
"TN VED of Russia - 48.11" Paper, cardboard, cellulose wool and cloth made of cellulose fibers, coated, impregnated, laminated, with a painted or decorated surface or printed, in rolls or rectangular (including square) sheets of any size. "
There is no indication in these classifications that the products are intended "for foodstuffs". In addition, in addition to cardboard, they indicate different kinds products: paper, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibers.
Rosstat currently does not have data on the production of the composite material.
In order to clarify the identification codes for these products, FAS Russia contacted Rostekhregulirovanie (developer of OKP) and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (developer of OKPD).
According to Rostekhregulirovanie, these products can be classified as OKP 54 5300 "Packaging paper and cardboard with various types of coatings and impregnations".
According to the information of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, this product complies with the OKPD code - 21.12.5 "Processed paper and cardboard".
According to the Federal Customs Service, these products are classified as HS code 48.11.51.0009 "Paper, cardboard, cellulose wool and cellulose fiber webs, coated, impregnated, laminated, with a painted or decorated surface or printed, in rolls or rectangular (including square ) sheets of any size "and to the code 48.11.19.200000" Cardboards, boxes, boxes, bags, bags and other packaging containers made of paper, cardboard, cellulose wool or cloth made of cellulose fibers; boxes for filing cabinets, letter trays and similar products , made of paper or cardboard. "
It follows from the foregoing that the all-Russian classifiers product groupings, to which the composite material for food packaging can be attributed, are highly aggregated. In this regard, it is not possible to separate a separate commodity item from the commodity group.
Thus, there are currently no statistical data on the volumes of production and sales of combined packaging material in the Russian Federation, as well as on the volumes of imports into and export from the Russian Federation of combined packaging material for packaging for viscous and liquid food products. In this regard, this review uses information provided at the request of the FAS Russia by direct economic entities engaged in the production and supply of composite material to the Russian market.
2. Determination of the composition of sellers and buyers
Composite packaging material manufacturers and suppliers
The following business entities operate on the Russian market for combined packaging material:
- JSC "Tetra Pak" (Moscow),
- CJSC "Elopak" (Moscow),
- JSC "Lambumiz" (Moscow);
- LLC "MoloPack" (Chekhov, Moscow region)
- LLC "Rospak" (Pushchino, Moscow region)
- SIG Combiblock GmbH & Co KG (Saalfelden, Austria).
JSC "Tetra Pak" is a part of the group of companies "Tetra Pak" (Sweden), which is the world leader in the field of processing, packaging and delivery of food products. For half a century, the Tetra Pak company has become, in addition, one of the largest suppliers of equipment for the production of dairy products, yoghurts and cheeses, sauces and desserts, juices and nectars, water and wine, vegetable oil and many other products.
JSC "Tetra Pak" is the leader in the Russian market of combined packaging materials. About 200 food industry enterprises are constant partners and customers of Tetra Pak CJSC in Russia.
Tetra Pak CJSC is directly controlled by Tetra Laval Holdings, BV. (Netherlands), she owns 100% of the shares of the company.
JSC "Tetra Pak" produces combined material and blanks for standard packages from combined packaging material of various standard sizes (0.25, 0.5, 1.0 l) for packaging juice and dairy products (trademarks "Tetra Pak Aceptic", "Tetra Bric "," Tetra Rex ", etc.).
The production of combined packaging materials by Tetra Pak CJSC is carried out on the basis of duplex cardboard produced by Svetogorsk OJSC (Svetogorsk, Leningrad Region). Polyethylene and aluminum foil used in the production of composite materials are imported from Switzerland.
JSC "Tetra Pak" indicates the following identification codes for the combined material it produces: OKP - 54.81.14, 54.81.17 and the corresponding TN VED - 48.11.51.0009, OKP - 54.53.00, 54.53.15 and TN VED - 48.19.200000.
The company's products are supplied to all federal districts. The consumers of the combined packaging material are the factories producing liquid food products located throughout Russia. Among the main consumers are Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods OJSC (Moscow), UniMilk Company OJSC (Moscow), Lebedyansky OJSC (Lipetsk Region), Multon CJSC (St. Petersburg). There are a number of large companies, for example, OJSC "Wimm-Biel-Dann Foods" and OJSC "Company" UniMilk ", which have more than 15 factories producing liquid food products.
The contracts for the supply of products concluded by Tetra Pak CJSC contain conditions that do not depend on the place and / or method of product delivery. Two methods of delivery are used: on terms of self-pickup from the manufacturer's warehouse or on terms of delivery to the buyer's warehouse, from where it is subsequently distributed by the customer to his manufacturing plants in different regions. Delivery terms do not affect the price of products, the cost of transportation is indicated separately in the invoices.
According to information posted on the company's website, in August 2008. Tetra Pak has completed the construction of the only fully automated milk processing plant in Russia in the city of Gatchina, Leningrad Region. The plant has installed equipment for various cardboard-based Tetra Pak packaging systems - Tetra Brik Aseptiс, Tetra Prizma Aseptic and Tetra Top - for packaging dairy, fermented milk and whey products.
ZAO Elopak is a member of the Elopak group of companies (Norway), established in 1957.
The company "Elopak" currently does not have enterprises in Russia for the production of combined packaging material and blanks from it. The production of combined packaging material and blanks from it is carried out at the enterprises belonging to the Elopak group of companies and located in Germany, Finland, Holland, Ukraine (Elopak-Fastov OJSC).
The combined packaging material of the Elopak group of companies (Pure-Pak trademark) is made on the basis of cardboard produced by the Stora Enso concern (Finland).
CJSC "Elopak" supplies to the Russian market blanks of standard packages made of combined packaging material used for packaging milk and dairy products.
The blanks of standard packages made of combined packaging material supplied to the market of Elopak CJSC correspond to the codes: OKP - 51.14 and TN VED - 48.19.200000.
These products are supplied by CJSC "Elopak" to various regions of Russia. The main buyers are: Wimm-Biel-Dann OJSC (Moscow), Ostankino Dairy Plant OJSC (Moscow), UNIMILK Company OJSC (Moscow), Vologda Milk Plant PC (Vologda), Polipak-Yug LLC "(Rostov-on-Don).
The sale of these products is carried out by CJSC "Elopak" mainly to end consumers (dairies), some of the products are sold to dealers. The delivery of products is carried out by concluding agreements (contracts) with customers.
Delivery contracts provide for different terms of payment for products, mainly sales are carried out on a prepayment basis. Delivery is carried out by third party shipping companies. Terms of delivery mainly: EXW MOSCOW, CIP-Customer, DDP-Customer.
JSC "Lambumiz" is the first domestic enterprise for the production of combined packaging material, has been operating on the market for 36 years. In the production of these materials, cardboard with one bleached layer is used, produced by OJSC Mondi Syktyvkar LPK (Komi Republic), as well as imported raw materials - cardboard with two bleached layers, polyethylene.
The company produces blanks for standard packaging from combined packaging material (trade mark "Pyur Pak") with a capacity of 0.5 and 1 liter for packaging milk and dairy products.
Billets from the combined material of CJSC "Lambumiz" corresponds to the codes: OKVED21.21. and TN VED - 48.19.20000.
The main consumers of these products are enterprises in Siberia, the Far East, the Republic of Belarus (for which the share of deliveries exceeds 5%), as well as Sudzhansky Butter Factory (Kursk Region).
The specified products are delivered by rail to the regions of Siberia, the Far East, as well as to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, other enterprises in Russia and Belarus - by road (self-pickup by the customer's transport).
MoloPak LLC was founded at the end of 2004 and is a subsidiary of the Graffiti Printing House group of companies, operating in the market of printing services. The company specializes in the production of blanks from a combined packaging material for liquid food products (trade marks "Pyur Pak" and "Rex Offset").
MoloPak LLC was the first in Russia to start using offset printing. For the production of blanks, MoloPack LLC uses an imported composite material - laminated cardboard made in the USA (not produced in Russia).
Billets from the combined packaging material of MoloPak LLC correspond to codes: OKPO - 71633631 and TN VED - 48.19.200000.
The company supplies the specified products to various regions of Russia. Regions for which the share of product deliveries exceeds 5%: Stavropol Territory (VITA OJSC), Altai Republic (Mayma-Moloko LLC, Holod LLC), Yaroslavskaya (Yarmolprod OJSC, Dairy Products LLC) and Vologda region (JSC "Severnoye Milk").
ROSPAK LLC is the youngest Russian company, operating since 2007. The company is directly controlled by Danenery Investments Limited (Limassol, Cyprus).
The company produces blanks for standard packaging made of composite material Gamble Top from laminated cardboard made in the USA, including those with an aluminum coating; the supplier of white polymer-coated cardboard is Blue Ridge Paper Products Ink, Delaware, USA). The production capacity of the plant is over 30 million units. blanks per month.
The main consumer of the company's products is UniMilk LLC (Moscow).
Blanks of standard packages from the combined packaging material of Rospak LLC correspond to codes: OKPO - 73100502 and TN VED - 48.19.200000.
In addition to the aforementioned Russian manufacturers and suppliers of combined packaging material and blanks from it, a major supplier of these blanks to the Russian market is SIG Combiblok (Austria), whose products are imported by food enterprises under direct supply contracts with SIG Combiblock GmbH & Co KG (Industrialstrasse 3 , A-5760b Saalfelden, Austria).
SIG Combiblock GmbH & Co KG is part of SIG Holding AG headquartered in Sweden, which specializes in the development and production of aseptic packaging and equipment for filling milk, juices, still drinks, wine, soups, sauces, long-term baby food storage. The holding includes 7 packaging plants and 1 filling machine plant, has its own research and development center, more than 40 offices on all continents.
The company has been operating in Russia (as well as in Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan) since 1997. Currently, the main consumers of the company's products in Russia are the following companies: for the production of juices - Nidan, Lebedyansky, Wimm Bill Dann, PepsiCo (juice lines - "My family", "Fruit Garden", "Tropicana"), for the production of milk - Wimm Bill Dunn, UniMilk.
Today the company produces packages in three series - combibloc, combifit, combishape (trademark "SIG Combibloc").
According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, SIG Combiblock packaging has a TN VED code of 48.19.200000.
In Russia, there is a subsidiary of SIG Kombiblok LLC (Moscow), the main activity of which is maintenance of Kombiblok equipment, as well as the sale of spare parts at the request of customers - producers of juices and milk, equipped with Kombiblok filling lines.
Buyers (consumers) of combined packaging material
As mentioned above, the buyers (consumers) of the combined packaging material are enterprises producing dairy, juice products, wine, etc.
FAS Russia has requested from the largest manufacturers of dairy and juice products, such as OJSC "Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods" (Moscow), OJSC "Company" UniMilk "(Moscow), OJSC" Lebedyansky "(Lipetsk region), CJSC "Nidan Juices" (Moscow region),
information regarding the combined packaging material they use.
JSC "Wimm-Biel-Dann Foods" (abbreviated - JSC "VBD PP") believes that the vast majority of types of combined packaging material from different suppliers are not interchangeable due to the fact that each of the suppliers primarily produces and supplies the customer with a unique technological equipment (filling lines), which, when packaging liquid products (when filling), uses only certain appropriate packaging; The only (according to the company) case of the interchangeability of these materials is the combined packaging materials of the Pyur-Pak (supplier - Elopak CJSC) and Tetra Rex (supplier - Tetra Pak CJSC) of the corresponding containers under certain conditions.
According to JSC "VBD PP", cardboard packaging will continue to occupy a dominant position in the packaging market for liquid and viscous dairy and juice products based on the prevailing preferences of the population (it is convenient and hygienic to store, store and use, environmentally friendly disposal), the number and age of the installed packaging equipment (filling lines) from manufacturers.
OJSC "Company" UniMilk "also uses combined packaging materials as packaging. Contracts with a number of suppliers of these materials provide for the mandatory use of the manufacturer's packaging material in the manufacture of products on the equipment of these companies in order to maintain the possibility of warranty service of the equipment (for machines not older than 1 year.)
At the same time, by now, as a result of the joint work of the company's employees with specialists from the manufacturers of combined packaging materials, partial interchangeability has been achieved when using packaging of the Gamble Top type.
OJSC "Company" UniMilk "believes that cardboard packaging is currently the most demanded market for packaging solutions and, most likely, in the next few years, the prevalence of carton packaging will remain, and, possibly, will increase.
JSC "Lebedyansky" - a manufacturer of juice products - uses combined packaging material and blanks from it, along with other types of packaging. The choice of a supplier of combined packaging material or blanks from it is carried out in accordance with production needs and based on the prevailing market conditions at a certain point in time. Since the replacement of one type of combined packaging material with another requires re-equipment of production facilities, the society believes that this replacement is difficult.
JSC "Nidan Soki" - a manufacturer of juices, nectars and juice drinks - uses combined packaging material and blanks from it. According to the data of the company, the combined packaging materials used by it from different suppliers are not interchangeable - they are used on production lines with different production technologies.
3. Calculation of the volume of the product market and the shares of economic entities in the market
Based on data on production and sales volumes, import and export of combined packaging material in 2007, the shares of economic entities - participants in this market were determined.
The largest manufacturer and supplier of combined packaging material and semi-finished products on the Russian market is Tetra Pak CJSC with a 52.3% share, followed by Lambumiz CJSC - 9.1%, MoloPak LLC - 4.7%, LLC Rospak - 1.1%.
The share of companies supplying imported semi-finished products from combined packaging material to the Russian market in aggregate accounts for 32.8%, including: SIG Combiblok - 20.6%, CJSC Elopak - 12.2%.
4. Cost and price of goods
As the analysis of data on the unit cost, selling prices and profitability has shown, the highest unit cost and unit price, as well as the profitability of CJSC "Tetra Pak".
LLC "Rospak" has been operating in the market of combined packaging material for the second year (in 2007, the construction of the plant was completed), therefore, there are no data for calculating the profitability.
The prime cost of Lambumiz CJSC is 25.8% lower than that of Tetra Pak CJSC, but the selling price of a unit is 46.4% lower, and the profitability is 10 times lower.
CJSC "Elopak" and LLC "MoloPak" have on average approximately the same indicators of the cost of a unit of production, selling price and profitability.
According to a number of Russian manufacturers of combined packaging material and blanks for standard packaging from it, Elopak CJSC imports finished products from neighboring countries (Ukraine) duty-free and has the opportunity to sell them cheaper than, for example, MoloPak LLC and Lambumiz CJSC, and therefore with higher profitability.
It should be noted that the figures for unit cost, selling price and profitability differ depending on the type and format of the combined packaging material, as well as on the region of delivery.
For example, CJSC "Elopak" calculates the profitability of sales excluding general production and general operating expenses... The overall business profitability, excluding these expenses, is 11.5-12%, including by region: 10-15% (Moscow), 5% - 13% (Vologda), 8-9% (Rostov-on-Don).
The data on the unit sales profitability presented by Lambumiz CJSC also differ by region: 4.8% (Siberia and the Far East), 4.5% (Kursk region), 2.2% (Moscow), 5.1%, 6.2% (Republic of Belarus).
LLC "MoloPak" showed that the profitability of selling a unit of production by region is: 9.7%, 11.8% (Altai), 10%, 12% (Yaroslavl region), 12% (Vologda region), 13% ( Stavropol region).
5. Assessment of the state of the competitive environment in the combined packaging material market. Conclusions.
After analyzing the information provided by the participants Russian market combined packaging material, taking into account the above, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1) 5 Russian economic entities located in the Moscow region (Moscow and the Moscow region) operate on the market of combined packaging material in Russia, four of which are Tetra Pak CJSC, Lambumiz CJSC, MoloPack LLC and Rospak LLC carry out the production of combined packaging material and blanks for standard packaging from it, CJSC "Elopak" - import of blanks for standard packaging from combined packaging material from abroad (Ukraine, etc.). In addition, these blanks produced by the Austrian company "SIG Kombiblok" are imported to Russia directly by food enterprises.
The leader in the Russian market for combined packaging material in terms of sales volume is Tetra Pak CJSC with a 52.3% share. Other participants have significantly smaller shares: SIG Combiblok - 20.6%, CJSC Elopak - 12.2%, CJSC Lambumiz - 9.1%, LLC MoloPak - 4.7% and LLC Rospak "- 1.1%.
It should be noted that the companies Tetra Pak, Elopak and Sig Combiblok, in addition to producing combined packaging material and blanks for standard packaging, produce equipment for filling liquid and viscous food products from it.
2) This market can be classified as a market with insufficiently developed competition. Only in recent years, new economic entities (Elopak, MoloPak, Rospak) began to appear on the market, which gave impetus to the development of this market, where the only player for many years was the Tetra Pak company.
The market for combined packaging material has prospects for the development of competition and changes in the state of the competitive environment. In addition, the development of competition in this market will push the development of packaging based on other materials.
3) the factors limiting competition in the market include:
"a small number of economic entities operating on the market;
"high customs duties on the import of imported raw materials (bleached cardboard base, polyethylene, laminated cardboard) for the production of combined packaging material, as well as on the import of combined packaging material and blanks from it (the customs tariff rate is 10%);
"the sale of combined packaging material at dumping prices (CJSC Elopak"), which is caused by the disproportions in the current customs tariffs in the Russian Federation.
“linking equipment for filling liquid food products and used combined packaging materials from one supplier, in connection with which consumers do not have the ability to replace combined packaging materials from different suppliers with one another.
4). Considering that, according to the results of this study, the share of Tetra Pak CJSC in the market of combined material based on cardboard for packaging liquid and viscous food products in the Russian Federation in 2007 was more than 50%, FAS Russia considers it necessary to include Tetra Pak CJSC in the Register economic entities with a market share of more than 35% for a certain product.

The modern packaging industry is a fairly new phenomenon in Russia. Throughout the 1990s. The Russian packaging market has grown alongside consumer markets, and strong macroeconomic trends since 2000 have created a thriving market with annual growth rates of 10-12%. In 2008, the packaging market surpassed the $ 20 billion mark and, according to the unanimous opinion of analysts, strong growth will continue between 2009 and 2009.

Today paper and cardboard packaging dominate the Russian market, and their share is growing rapidly. Plastic, glass and metal retain smaller proportions, while wooden packaging is extremely rare [see. Table 1]. With the development of the Russian packaging market, it is likely that plastic will play an increasingly important role.

Table 1

Russian packaging market

Today Russia owns only 2% of the productivity level of the global packaging industry. This is not enough to meet the growing domestic demand, but there are active investments in this industry, the prospects for the future seem clear. According to expert data, Russian packaging manufacturers are investing in modern technologies and improving the functionality of the graphics. In the period from 2002 to 2009. Russia has imported over 500 modern flexographic printing machines.

Paper packaging is one of the fastest growing sectors in the forestry, paper and packaging industries, with almost all segments showing significant growth in recent years. Consumption of base paper - containerboard, cardboard and sack kraft paper - increased by 10% on a cumulative basis in 2009. The growth in packaging materials from base paper is reflected in the growth in processed products [ref. Table 2].

table 2

Production of certain types of paper packaging in Russia

Processors' profit margins vary as demand growth outpaces supply growth, keeping prices higher than in mature markets.

Cardboard packaging is predominantly used in the food and chemical industries (including cosmetics) and manufacturers of household and office equipment. Corrugated cardboard accounts for about 70% of the production of cardboard packaging in Russia, 80% of which is used for the transportation of goods. Consumption of corrugated board per capita in Russia is significantly lower than in Europe, therefore additional growth can be expected when the standard of living of Russian consumers rises.

The main Russian manufacturers of corrugated cardboard and boxes are Kamskaya Paper Company (Naberezhnye Chelny), Gotek, St. Petersburg Cardboard. The largest foreign-owned manufacturers are Stora Enso Packaging (Finland), SCA Packaging (Finland) and Smurfit Kappa (Ireland).

Plastic packaging is the second most important packaging material produced in Russia. Demand for it is growing, and manufacturers are striving to meet it by investing in new equipment and increasing productivity in order to create better products. Plastic film production is projected to grow by around 12% per year. Typically, manufacturers are petrochemical companies and their subsidiaries that produce various types of plastic packaging [see. Table 3].

Table 3

Types of plastic packaging

The main large manufacturers are Alcan Packaging, Amcor, NB-Retal, Europlast.

Thus, today the most rapidly developing sectors in Russia are the production of paper and plastic packaging with an annual growth rate of 10-12%.

Trends in the world and the Russian Federation

The main trend in the world market of cardboard and corrugated board is the rise in prices for products. Let's name the existing reasons. Firstly, this was due to the increase in prices for raw materials for the production of products - wood pulp (in the total cost of the final product, the share of raw materials is gradually approaching 75%), which was caused by the growing shortage of cellulose in the world market due to the growing demand for products from it with Developing country side: Consumption of packaging materials and paper grows in line with economic growth.

China is the largest consumer of cardboard and corrugated cardboard packaging materials. Given the scale of this market, we can say that the world market for packaging made of cardboard and corrugated board depends on how the production and demand for cardboard and corrugated board in China are developing.

In the face of growing demand for products for domestic market PRC and limited supply, the demand for imported cardboard and corrugated board is growing. At the same time, the Chinese market is becoming more and more attractive as National currency strengthens its position: the yuan against the dollar has been demonstrating stable growth since the beginning of the year. Supplies from European countries to China are growing, which leads to a shortage of products and an increase in prices for other foreign markets, including Russia.

In addition, the process of restructuring the pulp and paper industry continues in China: Government program elimination of outdated paper and cardboard production facilities (technologically backward and non-environmentally friendly low-power and medium-sized enterprises). Thus, a limited number of manufacturers and a significant domestic demand for corrugated board products contribute to the domestic rise in prices in China, which ultimately affects the global price level.

The rise in prices for cardboard and corrugated board is also observed in the Russian market. In addition to the rise in prices for raw materials, it is caused by an increase in manufacturers' costs for servicing imported equipment and unfavorable credit conditions.

In addition to this, let's say that in 2017, the government introduced a regulation for manufacturers of cardboard and corrugated cardboard packaging for compulsory disposal of packaging or payment of an environmental fee. In 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment increased the standard for the disposal of packaging and corrugated board products twice - up to 40% of the total volume of products (before that the standard was 20%). Such an increase in disposal standards can lead to unplanned increases in costs for producers, as a result of which an increase in prices for final products can be expected.

Russian market of packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board

In general, the market for packaging products made of cardboard and corrugated board has a fairly steady upward trend, with the exception of 2015, when there was a decline due to the unstable situation in the economy.

The largest share of consumption of cardboard packaging is accounted for by the food industry. Against the background of the imposed counter-sanctions on imported food products and import substitution in the food industry as a result of recovery processes in Russian economy demand for cardboard packaging in 2016 increased by 18%. In 2017, the market volume amounted to about 4,613.1 thousand tons, which is 13.4% higher than the level of the previous year.

The cardboard packaging market has a wide range of products, therefore, despite the significant export volume (791.6 thousand tons in 2017), imports also have a significant impact on the Russian market, especially in the most expensive segments. The share of imported products at the end of 2017 amounted to 16.3%.

Figure 1. The volume of the market for packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board in 2013-2017, thousand tons

Source: Rosstat data, FCS, IndexBox analytics

Figure 2. The volume of the market for packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board in 2013-2017, billion rubles.

Production

Production of packaging made of cardboard and corrugated board in 2017 increased compared to the previous year (+ 12.3%) and amounted to 4,651.9 thousand tons. investment projects to modernize and increase production capacity against the background of a general increase in wood processing.

The slowdown in growth rates in 2015 to + 2.8% was primarily due to a decrease in domestic consumption during the crisis period. Competitiveness in foreign markets remains the main growth factor for domestic producers - on average, about 17-20% of manufactured products are exported abroad. Full utilization of production capacities and an active increase in output allows manufacturers to increase export supplies as well.

Source: Rosstat data, IndexBox analytics

Figure 3. The volume of production of packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board in 2013-2017, thousand tons

The localization of the production of packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board tends to the main timber industry complexes of the country. In the structure of production in the Federal District, about 47% are occupied by the enterprises of the North-West Federal District, the largest of which are the leaders of the domestic market (subdivisions of JSC ILIM Group, JSC ARKHANGELSK PPM, JSC MONDI SLPK, JSC INTERNATIONAL PAPER ).

Foreign trade operations

Imports of packaging materials from cardboard and corrugated board have shown growth since 2016. In 2017, the volume of imports amounted to about 752.9 thousand tons, which is 10.6% more than in 2016. The increase in the volume of imports was due to the growth in imports of containerboard.

Polymer packaging demonstrates steady growth against the background of other sectors of the economy. The packaging industry owes its privileged position to sanctions and their consequences: the rapid development of the Russian food market and import substitution in many industries. Additional volumes of domestic products had to be urgently packed into something, and imported goods, due to the high exchange rate, had to look for an alternative on the spot. As a result, the packaging has risen, but in order to hold on, it needs additional incentives to develop.

The eleventh international conference, organized by the company (CREON Group), took place in Moscow on June 17. The conference was supported by Reifenhäuser Blown Film GmbH, the information sponsor was the magazine "Polymer Materials".

“How long will the effect of food sanctions and a weak ruble last? What happens if the sanctions are lifted? Will it not turn out that packaged imported goods will again become attractive to the Russian market? " - outlined topical issues of the conference general director of INVENTRA Nikolay Asatiani. He suggested analyzing the state of the markets for various types of packaging, trying to predict further scenarios and identifying the available growth reserves.

On the face of it, the industry feels pretty confident. The turnover of the packaging market in Russia in 2016 will exceed $ 16.5 billion. About 40% of the market falls on polymer packaging. In recent years, consumer packaging has grown by about 3%. “For five months of 2016, there has been a 4% growth in the production of packaging, including flexible polymer packaging - by 3%. At the same time, there is a decrease in the production of rigid polymer packaging ", - the General Director of the National Confederation of Packers Alexander Boyko announced the latest data on the market.

The market for consumer packaging and packaged food products in 2010-2015


The expert expects that the packaging industry in the Russian Federation will maintain growth rates within 3-4% in the next three years.
As for the market structure, since 2009, according to the observations of the confederation, there has been a constant increase in the share of polymer packaging. “Currently, in the segment of consumer food packaging, flexible and rigid polymer packaging already occupy almost 80%,” the conference participant emphasized.

Structure of the consumer packaging market by type (unit of packaging)

Most of the conference participants see even greater growth in packaging in the first half of 2016 - up to 10%, which was shown by interactive voting during the event:

However, not everything is rosy on the packaging market; there are also some difficulties. Macroeconomic indicators that lead to a decrease in demand, high rates on loans, rising prices for materials, increased costs due to the rise in prices for imported spare parts and equipment - all this affects the position of packaging manufacturers. New challenges also appear.

Raw material aspect

“Recently, we have been meeting with attempts to regulate the market in one way or another by increasing import duties, in particular, on equipment and some types of raw materials. The factories use 90% of imported equipment, and financial market affect the ability to purchase equipment. In such a situation, attempts by individual players to increase import duties on injection molding machines and further increase prices are unacceptable. It is important to monitor such initiatives in order to prevent the market from closing, ”the head of the confederation is convinced.

The expert also drew attention to the attempts of Russian chemical enterprises to restrict the import of raw materials, suggesting that state regulators introduce import duties on linear polyethylene. “Such initiatives are met with a negative reaction from converters, since Russian chemists are still unable to fully provide the packaging industry with all the necessary materials. We are in favor of developing the domestic supply of raw materials, but taking into account the interests of all players, especially taking into account that packaging is a product with high added value, ”stressed Alexander Boyko. The expert noted the success of the industry in import substitution: over 20 years, the import of packaging has decreased from 80 to 20%, which is a great merit of Russian enterprises. “The Russian packaging industry should continue to develop based on the consolidation of all players in the packaging market,” summed up the Director General of the National Confederation of Packers.

Raw materials companies, for their part, are making great efforts to provide processors with domestic materials. Dmitry Shastin, Chief Expert of the Product Marketing and Sales Department of the Sibur Base Polymers Directorate, spoke about how the holding managed to change the supply on the polyolefins market. “If you look at 2011-2012, the share of polypropylene imports was about 25-30%. In 2015, it decreased to 11% with an increase in total polypropylene consumption by 9% compared to 2014 (to 1,090 thousand tons). The fact of an increase in PP consumption with a decrease in imports indicates the presence of an import substitution factor, ”the conference participant noted. “This suggests that Russian manufacturers, in particular, Sibur, were able to offer the market competitive products that could replace the import offer,” he continued. - In the scarce years of 2011-2013, when the total capacity of domestic producers did not cover demand, half of PP imports fell on basic grades that Russian producers could not provide. The second part consisted of niche products with special properties ”. Dmitry Shastin drew attention to the fact that today, for the most part, not large-tonnage basic brands are imported, but product solutions that cannot yet be replaced. “But we are moving in this direction, we are developing intensively,” the representative of Sibur emphasized. He recalled that if in 2011 the company offered the market only 9 basic PP grades, by 2016 there are already more than 35 of them, including the line of SIBEX special product solutions, which allow the packaging manufacturer to increase its technological and economic efficiency during their processing.

Ufaorgsintez focuses on basic large-tonnage polypropylene grades, while special grades such as enlightened and nucleated high-index grades, as well as grades for thermoforming, are produced in limited quantities due to insufficient demand. “At the same time, we are developing grades for cast films (Balen 01100 and Balen 03080), the stage of laboratory tests and finalization of formulations has already passed, and industrial production is to come. We are also developing high-index grades with narrow molecular weight distribution, which will allow us to enter the market of nonwovens, as well as specialized injection molding. The use of grades Balen 01260 and 01350 will allow the client to reduce the cycle time, this product will be faster and more evenly distributed over the mold of the injection molding machine. We are also actively developing in the segment of battery cases production. In close cooperation with leading battery manufacturers, Ufaorgsintez has managed to bring the brand (Balen 02080) to a high level of quality and stability that meets market requirements. Separately, it is worth noting the efforts of Ufaorgsintez to develop grades of polypropylene block copolymer (Balen 02015L, Balen 02007M1L) for the production of extrusion sheet, previously most of the raw materials for this segment were imported, and Russian counterparts did not meet the client's quality requirements. We try to enter those markets where other manufacturers are not yet present or are limitedly present, thus implementing the strategy of import substitution, ”Maxim Volodin, a representative of Ufaorgsintez, shared the experience of the enterprise.

Despite the efforts of chemists, the situation with the brand assortment is typical not only for polypropylene, but also for polyethylene and PVC. The market really lacks special brands, which was also shown by interactive voting. 67% of respondents state that special brands need to be imported, and local raw materials are not ideal.

Technological approach

According to our experience, it can take up to two years to develop one new polymer grade, so imported raw materials will still continue their presence on the Russian market. But how can a processor optimize costs if it is not always possible to save on the exchange rate? It is recommended to look for the answer in technology.

Vladislav Smirnov, Regional Director of Reifenhäuser Blown Film GmbH, told how many layers in a blown barrier film should be in order for its production to be profitable. Research and practice show that it is precisely the increase in the number of layers that makes it possible to reduce the film thickness, exclude lamination, reduce the thickness of individual layers and thereby reduce the cost of the formulation due to the use of cheaper grades of raw materials. The increase in the number of layers is a global trend, emphasizes the representative of Europe's largest manufacturer of extrusion equipment.

Emphasis on flexibility

The presence of such a significant player in film extrusion as Reifenhäuser at the conference is also a kind of reflection of the trend of the Russian market: active growth in the use of flexible packaging and growth in the installation of new capacities.

Alexey Chubykin, Commercial Director of Daetwyler Moscow, estimated the consumption of flexible packaging at the end of 2015 at 440 thousand tons. with a volume of 140 thousand tons. BOPET films account for 7%, barrier films - 5%, CPP films and twist-packing - 4% each, foil accounts for 3% of the market, ”the industry representative said.

According to Aleksey Chubykin, the consumption of flexible packaging in 2015 against the background of the devaluation of the ruble and import substitution in the food sector increased by 10%. “By the end of 2016, this growth rate will continue,” says the speaker, who disagrees with the prevailing opinion about the market sinking. Speaking about the import component, Alexey Chubykin estimated the volume of imported film products at the level of 30 thousand tons per year.

The conference participant expects that the market will be reformatted in the coming years - new capacities for the production of films will appear in Russia. This is the Waterfall Pro project (Shakhty, Rostov region) with a total capacity of 60 thousand tons of BOPP film lines per year, and the BOPP line already launched in Kazakhstan at Polymer Production with a capacity of 17 thousand tons per year. In addition, in 2016, more than a dozen printing presses for flexible packaging manufacturers will be commissioned.

"Rise of the Machines"

The expert considers such a high rate of installation of new equipment to be excessive. “When all the machines are launched, the market will begin a period of tough competition between packaging manufacturers and the prevalence of supply over demand,” noted Alexei Chubykin.

The market will be able to “digest” these machines if transnational food companies start purchasing packaging for products manufactured in Russia right there, at Russian sites. Only in this case demand will remain at a level higher than supply, the expert believes.

The addition of new capacities in Rostov and Kazakhstan takes into account the Biaxplen, which is a part of Sibur, which is the flagship in the BOPP segment. “Over the past 7-8 years, significant investments have been made in Russian BOPP film capacities, primarily by Sibur, and they already exceed demand. A significant part of the production is exported. The last year was very successful for the market: the growth at the end of the year was 8%. But further the market will not grow at such a pace, according to forecasts, about: about 2-4%. Therefore, sales growth will be carried out primarily due to export and partial import substitution of BOPP films, ”said Konstantin Morozov, chief expert of the Sibur base polymers directorate. He also dispelled speculation that prices would fall as new entrants came in. "Investments in new modern production are huge, manufacturers need to recoup their investments, ”the conference participant is sure.

As for imports, their significant volumes remain, but they are gradually decreasing. “The volume of plain unprinted films has dropped threefold. If last year we went to Russia 1.2 thousand tons per month, then this year it will be 300-400 tons. In the future, imports are not expected to intensify, except for the moments of lower prices in China, ”said Konstantin Morozov.

The expert sees the main opportunities for import substitution for 2016 in the tobacco packaging segment, the growth in consumption of complex films for confectionery products. In the segment of adhesive tapes in 2016, according to his forecasts, the growth rate is expected to decrease to 5% (from 15% in 2015) due to stagnation in consumer demand and insignificant growth in retail trade in the Russian Federation. At the same time, the potential for import substitution of ready-made sticky years has not yet been exhausted. The consumption of the label film will depend on the weather conditions this summer, the Sibur spokesman said.

To the barrier

If we talk about barrier films, then the market capacity in the Russian Federation reaches 50-52 thousand tons per year, said Evgeny Moiseev, head of the “Packaging materials” sales department of DPO “Plastic”, during the conference. The industry representative noted that the share of imported barrier films is 40%, mainly from Europe. “In 2014, when import substitution took place in the food industry, the growth in consumption of barrier films in Russia was 4%. At the same time, it is not possible to reduce the share of imports at the expense of Russian production, although the capacities of 7 Russian manufacturers are underutilized. The planned launch of two more enterprises will further aggravate the situation with underutilization, ”the representative of DPO“ Plastic ”believes. The speaker believes that the main obstacle to increasing sales of domestic film is the high cost of production and the lack of domestic components.

“We work with imported equipment and imported raw materials. In terms of production costs, Russian film after the devaluation of the ruble became comparable to imported film. The current task is to find analogues that could replace the brands of imported polyethylene with high thermal stability, ”explained Evgeny Moiseev.

To maintain competitiveness, in addition to reducing costs, it is necessary to follow the preferences of customers, the representative of DPO "Plastic" is convinced. Preferences are manifested in key market trends, such as the growth in the use of barrier packaging materials that provide an increase in the shelf life of products (up to 120 days), the use of high-speed packaging and filling equipment, an increase in demand for medium-barrier films, a simplification of the printed pattern, the development of innovative technologies.

Not by beer alone

The battles over PET containers for beer ended, as you know, with a ban on the use of packages with a volume of more than 1.5 liters. Thus, a decline in the use of PET in this segment is expected, but changes are already overdue in the consumer demand... Over the next few years, the consumption of PET containers for packaging dairy products, drinking water and medicines will grow in Russia, ARPET predicts. Association experts expect that the use of PET for packaging carbonated drinks, on the contrary, will decrease. ARPET President Vladislav Barbashov made an assessment of the market prospects.

“The forecasts voiced are based on data on the lower production cost of PET containers compared to glass packaging, the growing popularity of clean bottled water among the population and the overall preference for a healthy lifestyle,” the expert noted. Over the past five years, the average per capita consumption of PET packaging in the Russian Federation has grown from 3.5 to 4.1 kg / year, however, the figure has not yet reached the European level of 6.4 kg, the ARPET President noted.

Stretch - for layering

The capacity for the production of stretch films in Russia is 164.3 thousand tons per year, said Dmitry Karpov, chief engineer of the Industrial Park Kamskie Polyany, during the conference. There are 9 large manufacturers on the market located in Central Russia, Siberia, Tatarstan. “The share of LDPE use in the film production industry is growing - from 41% in 2014 to 45.1% in 2015, the share of HDPE is decreasing: from 56% to 52.7%, respectively,” said the chief engineer of Kamskiye Polyan. According to him, the main trends in the stretch market are: a decrease in film thickness while maintaining strength properties, an increase in the number of layers from five and more, optimization of production, development of technologies for the production of pre-stretched and stretch-thin films.

Waiting for more

Packaging as an industry and its individual products, such as various types of films, PET containers and others, are assessed as promising in terms of growth in consumption. However, more is expected from packaging. In a situation where construction and the auto industry are sagging, packaging could “pull out” producers of raw materials and finished products that have opportunities for diversification, or it could strengthen the positions of existing players in packaging. However, the impulse from import substitution and devaluation of the ruble has already been worked out. Further incentives are needed.

According to Aleksey Stadnik, Procurement Director of Conflex SPb, at this stage of the industry it would be useful to reorient economic relations between converters and end users. He believes that the solution to the problems of the competitiveness of domestic packaging should be sought in the creation of complexly integrated production structures of a closed cycle "raw materials - packaging - processing - raw materials", which will make it possible to reduce losses at all stages of the packaging life cycle and increase the competitiveness of the Russian packaging industry. This, one might say, is the production side of the issue.

There are financial aspect... The development of packaging requires access to funding, it follows from the results of the final interactive vote. The packers are not actually hindered by the lack of raw materials, which has been talked about a lot, but also by the problems of credit.

If we talk about consumption, the main driver of the industry's development from the outside, then one should look for growth reserves in the localization of packaging for transnational companies. International brands, in principle, do not refuse to consider proposals from Russian packers, which they talked about during the discussions at the conference, but so far this process has not been formalized in any way, such a task has not been set for the brand-owners themselves. Perhaps the experience of localization in the automotive industry is applicable to the packaging of well-known brands, and could serve the growth of one of the most promising industries.

* Calculations use average data for Russia

1. INTRODUCTION

According to one of the proposed definitions, packaging is objects, materials and devices used to ensure the safety of goods and raw materials during their storage, movement, and use.

The packing functions are as follows:

Preservation of the properties of goods after their production

Giving compactness and ease of transportation

For the manufacture of packaging, depending on its purpose, almost any material can be used: wood, metal, plastic, paper, cardboard, glass. However, the most popular in modern trade is packaging made of cardboard and polymer materials (plastics). It is the markets for these types of packaging that are the most important for the industry as a whole. This study will focus primarily on the segments of corrugated board and flexible (plastic) packaging.

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

Due to the constant enthusiasm for retail turnover, the packaging market is also growing in the world. At the end of 2015, about 225 million tons of containerized products were consumed in the world, while in 2000 the volume of consumption was 150 million tons. The largest consumer is China, whose packaging market in 2015 amounted to 68 million tons; the volume of the Russian market in the same year was estimated at 4.6 million tons. By 2030, the market is projected to increase by 30%.

To the packaging market, as well as to practically all other sectors of the Russian economy, within recent years the difficult economic and geopolitical situation has a significant impact. The negative political situation in the international arena, the impact of Western sanctions in 2014-2015. led to the weakening of the ruble and the contraction of many sectors National economy... However, by the end of 2016, the situation began to stabilize to some extent, an increase in oil prices was noted, which led to some strengthening of the ruble. Nevertheless, the real disposable income of the population continues to decline, Russians are switching to a saving model of behavior (which will work for a long time after the economic recovery), retail turnover is decreasing, which directly affects the decrease in demand for packaging materials. At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble helped stabilize export prices, as well as provide some growth in demand for packaging. The industry is negatively impacted by high interest rates on loans, a decrease in lending volumes, an increase in costs and a decrease in the profitability of packaging manufacturers.

Figure 1. Production of corrugated board products in the Russian Federation in 2016, million m 2

The volume of sales of boxes and boxes made of corrugated board in Russia in 2016 increased by 4.1% or by 186 million m 2 compared to 2015. At the same time, the volume of sales of commercial corrugated board decreased by 4.1% (41 million m 2) compared to last year. The restoration of the most significant segment (boxes and boxes) allows us to speak about the restoration of corrugated board production as a whole. Recovery factors include:

Changing consumer preferences

Marketing positioning (eco-friendly packaging made from natural materials becomes popular)

Enhancing import substitution

Increased export volumes in a number of industries, fueled by the weak ruble exchange rate

Low base effect in non-food industries

While retail trade volumes declined in monetary terms (-5.7% in 2016), real consumption in some sectors was still growing. For example, consumption increased: beverages and tobacco by 2.4%, pharmaceutical products by 4.4%, detergents, perfumes and cosmetics by 8.7%, sanitary and hygienic products by 23.4%, household appliances by 4.7%.

According to Rosstat, the leaders of growth in the Central Federal District in 2016 were Moskovskaya (+46 million m2), Lipetskaya (+34.5 million m2), Belgorodskaya (+13.4 million m2), Tverskaya (+13.2 mln m 2), Yaroslavl (+6.0 mln m 2) regions. A decrease in production volumes was shown by the Kursk, Smolensk and Tula regions. In the Volga Federal District, the leadership was secured by the Republic of Bashkortostan (+ 25%), the Republic of Tatarstan (+ 12%) and the Nizhny Novgorod Region (+ 13%); the indicators of the Republic of Mari-El, the Perm Territory and the Saratov Region decreased. Total by federal district the increase was 6%. In the North-West Federal District, the leaders of growth were the Vologda (+ 34%) and Leningrad (+ 5%) regions, and most of all, production decreased in the Kaliningrad (-24%) and Arkhangelsk (-76%) regions. In the Southern FD, the largest increase was shown by the Astrakhan region (+ 8%), and the largest drop was shown by the Volgograd region (-75%). In general, the Northwestern Federal District increased production by 2%, and the Southern Federal District decreased by 3%.

At the end of September 2016, the average capacity utilization in the corrugated board segment reached 80%. At the same time, the spread of values ​​is in the range from 42% to 109%.

Figure 2. Dynamics of prices for corrugated board products, 2016, rubles / m 2

In the pricing structure, there is a stratification of prices for finished products of 2-3 rubles between integrated and non-integrated market players. Non-integrated players kept prices above 21 rubles per square meter, while the integrated ones kept prices at the level of 19 rubles per square meter. Integrated waste paper suppliers, amid expectations of higher prices for waste paper, chemicals, lower tariffs, are pursuing a policy of price increases in order to keep business profitability at the desired level. Non-merged players, experiencing fierce competition from integrated ones, are forced to raise prices minimally, sacrificing profitability and profitability. According to experts, we should expect some reduction in the price gap and a decrease in profitability on average in the industry.

Figure 3. Dynamics of prices for commercial board, 2016, thousand rubles / t

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Figure 4. Production of containerboards, 2016, thousand tons

The total volume of containerboard production in Russia in 2016 is estimated at 1,738 thousand tons of cellulose cardboard (an increase compared to last year - 3.1%) and 2,036 thousand tons of recycled cardboard (12.1% growth compared to last year). At the same time, the volume of exports is estimated at 49% of the total production of cellulose cardboard and less than 1% of waste paper.

Figure 5. The share of recycled and semi-cellulose board in the total volume of containerboard production,%

The balance of the pulp and recycled containerboard markets in Russia at the end of the year amounted to 66 and 16 thousand tons, respectively. Despite the annual balance sheet surplus, there was a significant shortage of supply in the second half of the year due to the seasonal increase in demand and the overall growth of the packaging market.

Waste paper, which is a raw material in the manufacture of recycled containerboard, also showed an overall surplus in the balance sheet. Due to the ban on the export of waste paper during the first quarter of 2016 and its stable production, there has been a drop in prices for given view products. The resumption of export supplies in the second quarter helped to stabilize the situation.

In the first half of 2016, there was a faster rate of cost reduction compared to the general price dynamics, due to which the producers of recycled containerboard were able to somewhat increase their profitability. In the second half of the year, however, due to higher prices for waste paper and chemicals, profitability declined.

At the end of 2016, the markets for corrugated board products, containerboards, and waste paper are assessed as balanced. Market trends are assessed by manufacturers and market experts as positive. However, price stratification creates more profitable terms works for integrated producers.

According to experts' forecasts for 2017, one should expect:

GDP growth by 0.6%, industry growth - 1.1%

Partial recovery purchasing power population and effective demand due to growth in wages (+ 1.2%) and real disposable income of the population (+ 0.7%)

Increase in retail turnover by 1.1%

All these factors are expected to have a positive impact on the dynamics of demand. According to experts, the volume of corrugated board production in 2017 will amount to 5,750 - 5,850 million m 2, which is 1.9 - 3.5% more than in 2016. The output of boxes and boxes will increase within the same limits - 1.9 - 3.5%, and the output of commercial corrugated board - by 1.9 - 4.0%. A number of projects for the construction and modernization of production facilities of major market players are planned for 2017, which may lead to a decrease in production utilization, increased competition, which will create the likelihood of a further decrease in the profitability of manufacturers. The prerequisites for making such a forecast are:

The prevailing dynamics of the consumer market in 2016

Changes in the structure of household consumption

Further build-up of import substitution

Increasing export volumes by industries - consumers of packaging

According to forecasts, the total volume of containerboard production in Russia in 2017 will amount to 3,976 thousand tons, which is 5.6% more than in 2016. The production of cellulose raw materials will grow by 4.0% to 1 807 thousand tons, waste paper - by 6.5% to 133 thousand tons.

In connection with the decline in the solvency of both the population and enterprises-consumers of packaging, an increase in demand for more affordable waste paper products is expected. If in 2010 the share of recycled corrugated packaging in the total market structure was 55%, then by the end of 2017 it is expected to increase to 71%.

Trends for 2017 can be summarized as follows:

The corrugated board market and related markets enter 2017 in a balanced state

The pricing format remains unclear; price increases can be unpredictable

Commissioning of new production facilities is forecasted, which will lead to an overall decrease in production utilization and increased competition

The price struggle between integrated and non-integrated players will lead to a decrease in the profitability of all market players

At the same time, to ensure the investment attractiveness of the industry, it is necessary to increase the profitability of business in this area.

The flexible packaging market in Russia continued its development in 2016. Despite reports from some players about a decrease in demand volumes compared to 2015, there is an overall market growth of 10% in the first quarter of 2016, and 2-3% in the second quarter. The use of polymer packaging materials in the food industry is developing at an extremely high rate. According to experts, up to 70% of the demand for flexible packaging comes from the food industry.

The volume of the global market for plastic food containers made of rigid plastics is projected for 2017 at $ 5.4 billion. The projected market size for flexible packaging by 2020 is $ 248 billion.

Recent years have been marked by the emergence of a number of innovative solutions, such as plastic cans... In the near future, a significant redistribution of the world market towards this particular type of packaging is expected. One of the advantages of such packaging is its full compatibility with traditional canning equipment and does not require additional costs for re-profiling of existing production facilities.

Another trend in the global flexible packaging market is the so-called "smart" packaging, that is, equipped with means for the consumer to obtain additional information about the product. The simplest option is a QR code. Another type of “smart” packaging is RFID tags, which can be used to organize interactions between kitchen appliances and food (tracking the expiration date, the availability of necessary products in the kitchen, and so on).

For many years, the packaging market in general and, in particular, flexible packaging, has shown fierce competition and a significant excess of supply over demand. Nevertheless, in 2015 the situation, in terms of capacity utilization and profitability, was the best in recent years.

According to experts, since 2014, the packaging market (along with the food and defense industries) has shown steady growth. The reasons for this are various import substitution programs, a weakening of the ruble and an increase in export volumes.

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The growth of the flexible packaging market in 2015 was about 10-12%. A higher growth rate was only in the early 2000s - 25%, but then it was triggered by the 1998 devaluation. At the same time, it is also necessary to understand that for a market that is growing practically from scratch, large percentage growth is a normal situation in view of the small market volume in physical terms.

According to the results of 2015, the market capacity for flexible packaging (with printing) amounted to 440 thousand tons. In monetary terms, the volume may reach 125 billion rubles.

Figure 6. Flexible packaging market structure, Russia, 2015,%

An important factor in the development of the flexible packaging market was the inability to expand and modernize production facilities (primarily printing equipment) due to the low availability of financing - high interest rates on loans, reduced lending programs and government subsidies. With the visible negative side of this factor, its influence was not unambiguous. The maximum utilization of production capacities led to an excess of demand over supply, which created favorable conditions for market players for development, and also made it possible to raise prices. The rise in prices made it possible, in turn, to compensate for the rise in prices for raw materials and to keep the profitability of production at an acceptable level.

Import substitution has also become a very important factor that positively influenced the development of the packaging market. IN retail the share of domestic manufacturers is increasing, which leads to further growth in demand for packaging. However, the expansion of production in all sectors of the economy is a long process, therefore, in the short term, import substitution will lead to a slight increase in demand.

The devaluation of the ruble made it more profitable for large food producers to localize packaging production in Russia. Several of the largest international companies have done this. However, there are a number of difficulties associated with localization. In particular, Russian printing houses are not always ready for large volumes and the required level of quality.

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