Belarusians continue to make savings from banks. According to the National Bank, the contributions of the population in rubles and in the currency in November decreased. At first, the dollar growth was promoted and a gradual decline in interest rates on deposits, and from November, decree decree No. 7 decree, which divided deposits into two types: revitalized and inspired and installed income tax At the interest received by depositors.
So, for October, the amount of deposits in national currency decreased by 0.5 trillion rubles, in November - 1.2 trillion rubles. Thus, on December 1, ruble savings of citizens amounted to 27.4 trillion rubles. Breaks from banks and currency deposits of Belarusians - in November, the deposits "looting" by 65 million rubles. By the way, in October, depositors, on the contrary, carried euro dollars in banks. Then the volume of currency deposits grew by 35 million. total amount Accumulations in the currency on December 1 amounted to 7 billion 775 million dollars.
Calculate money!
Now Belarusian banks offer for irrevocable ruble deposits of 30% per annum, on the revocation - 25%. For another six months ago, the depositor could receive 40-50% per annum. So, suppose that on June 22, 2015, Vasily and Nikolai had 10 million rubles. Both decided to save this money for the new year.
Vasily went to the exchanger and bought dollars to the entire amount. At that time, the dollar exchange rate was 15,333 rubles. Consequently, Vasi had $ 654, which he sealed in the envelope and postponed to the New Year ...
And Nikolai decided to put his money to the bank on a deposit under 36% per annum * with monthly capitalization of interest.
6 months passed ...
Vasily opened the envelope and went to the exchange of currency. At the rate on December 21 (18 376), he received 12,000,000 rubles for the revenue dollars.
Nikolay went to the bank and removed 11,943,000 rubles from the deposit.
Who got great benefits? If Nikolai in the summer found a more profitable contribution (and some banks offered deposits at 40 and even under 45%), then he would have won. Under 45% it would receive about 500 thousand more. However, making a contribution to less profitable than 36% per annum, conditions, Nikolai would lose.
At the same time, Vasily could not hide money under the pillow, but to open a dollar deposit. True, in such a short time he would earn no more than 10 dollars.
How to do now? There is no unambiguous answer to this question. But let's try to take a calculator again.
To date, Belarusian banks offer deposits under 25-30 percent per annum. Consequently, placing his 10 million rubles on the most favorable conditionsIn the middle of summer you will receive approximately 11.6 million rubles. **
To get the same amount by the same amount, we need to sell dollars, it is necessary that the course will be 21,68 rubles by the course. This means that the dollar should go on average by $ 486 per month, or 16 rubles a day. If such a scenario seems to be real or even optimistic, then you - with a passport in the exchanger. If you are sure that the ruble will not fall so quickly, then you are in the next window where deposits are taken in belorussian rubles.
Options, how to save money, there have never been a lot in our country. By and large, the choice was always done between the bank and the bank. IN lately It became worse: interest on currency deposits seek to zero, they also do not shine on the ruble, despite the fact that the dollar and the euro grow. Exploring the terms of bank deposits, the site remarked another problem: it is almost impossible to find irrevocable currency deposits with a fixed rate.
"We try not to lower, but we cannot promise"
What does it mean? If you are looking for an option for placing a currency at a rate above 1.5% per annum, then you will have to choose between irrevocable deposits. However, none of them (site searched through aggregators banking information And I did not find) does not guarantee the preservation of the bet. Normal Practice: Banks, having gaining the right amount of money, reduce rates. In the case of a reviewed contribution, the client is free to pick up money as soon as the rate ceased to arrange it, in the case of irrevocably, his money is actually in hostages.
Suppose you choose a top dollar deposit under 2.6% per annum for 24 months without the right to revoke, put the entire hook, and a month later, the bank lowers a bet to 1.5%. Not fair?.
IN commercial banks The site was confirmed that no guarantees at the rate even in the "long" irrevocable currency deposits could not give (in the ruble segment there are proposals with a fixed rate).
"To establish in advance whether the rate will be changed, unfortunately there is no possibility," in private, the client's question answered Belveb.
"We try not to lower the bet on long deposits, but we cannot promise," the operator said in BNB.
Also in banks can not promise, that the contract will terminate early, if the client is dissatisfied new bid.. The grounds for termination are the serious disease of the depositor or its close relatives, death, reduction at work.
Yes, really on the market bank deposits Most of the review and irrevocable contributions in foreign currency are not a fixed rate, "said the website Director of the Department of Retail Business Bank Moscow-Minsk Denis Sparish. - Currently, the procedure for changing the Bank in unilaterally interest rates on deposits in foreign currency. In accordance with the banking code of the Republic of Belarus, the amount of interest on the deposit (deposit) can be changed by agreement of the parties, unless otherwise provided by the contract bank deposit (deposit).
At the same time, after the entry into force of changes and additions to the Banking Code of the Republic of Belarus, investors will be more protected, since banks will not unilaterally change the interest rate on deposits.
From October 29, everything will be in place
The rate of the banking code is that the rate can be changed by agreement of the parties, pay attention to the National Bank.
Banking legislation contains a unified approach to the formation of interest rates on deposits (deposits) in Belarusian rubles and in foreign currency, the site commented on the site in the management of information and public relations of the National Bank. - In accordance with Article 184 of the Banking Code of the Republic of Belarus, the amount of interest on the contribution is a significant condition for the bank deposit agreement (deposit).
Article 187 of the banking code determines that the contributor pays to the depositor interest on the deposit (deposit) in the amount determined by the Banking Deposit Treaty (Deposit). The percentage of interest on the deposit (deposit) can be changed by agreement of the parties, unless otherwise provided by the Banking Deposit Treaty (Deposit).
Thus, the change in the amount of interest on deposits (deposits) is within the framework of the contractual relations of the bank and the depositor. In this regard, before signing the contract of the banking contribution (deposit), it should be carefully studied and familiarized with all its terms.
At the same time, we note that in order to protect the rights of investors, approaches to the formation of interest rates on deposits (deposits) and the procedure for their change are changed. From October 29, 2018, banks will have to use interest rates in the balance sheet contracts (fixed annual interest rate) in accordance with the bank deposit (deposit) (fixed annual interest rate), or based on the calculated value attached to basic indicator, in the manner agreed by the parties when concluding a bank deposit (deposit) agreement (variable annual interest rate).
At the same time, the contributor is not entitled to unilaterally reduce the amount of interest on the deposit (deposit). The terms of the bank deposit (deposit) agreement, allowing the contributor to reduce the amount of interest on the deposit (deposit) unilaterally, limit the rights of the depositor and are considered insignificant.
These innovations are provided for in changes and additions to Article 187 of the Banking Code, enter into force on October 29, 2018 and will allow the maximum to protect the rights of depositors, "noted in the National Bank.
The estimated value to which the deposit rate can be tied for each currency: for the Belarusian ruble - the refinancing rate, as well as the bunch of overnight, for the dollar - the key rate of the US Federal Reserve, for Euro - the basic bid of the European central Bank, for the Russian ruble - the credit of the Overnight Bank of Russia.
Thus, the uncertainty on which the client is solved by opening a irreparable deposit, after two months it will become a little more definite. True, it can lead to a decrease in the already low rates.
"Everything to hell is lightering. Although at first can take away, earn + xx% »
About deposits and alternative opportunities for saving money Site asked for a co-founder of Aheadworks, a famous business angel Kirill Goluba.
The question is good, but the answer to it does not have a practical meaning, "Cyril Golill's" wrong "deposits commented on the issue - because on the deposit in the bank you can only store a very small part of your savings, it can be called a" safety pillow ". Dollar inflation over the past decades is an average of 2.75% per year, theorists (and practices) believe that it is necessary to not save (when you save money, inflation eats them, no matter where they lie - at home under the pillow or on a deposit with a minimum percentage) , and invest.
Classical investment system for young man (or family), deliberately investing with long-term and sustainable growth (and not to play dubious or undoubtedly risky speculation) looks like this:
10% monthly income They are postponed with the goal of the future investment (and not just wen on some major purchase - no, it should be conscious money for investment). When you have a sufficient amount, which is enough for 6 months of averaged consumption ("airbag" in case of loss of work or ability to work), you can proceed to investment. The simplest, convenient and available way - This is a trust management service in one of the banks of Belarus.
The minimum amount of investments - from $ 10,000. The bank receives its commission - just over 1% per year from the amount of your investment - and commission income For securities operations.
Many banks offer various products with a guarantee of capital preservation, but they are difficult to understand and do not shine high yield. For a novice investor, it is easier to buy one or two index funds in his portfolio to your portfolio and one or two bond funds, and then to trust the market.
Any novice investor at first there is a desire to actively manage his portfolio, and some of this can even get a while. But at a distance of two or three years (and for a shorter time to invest in the stock market tools meaninglessly) with the active management of the portfolio, everything (all! No exceptions!) Beginning investors lose the average yield.
Yield This method of investment does not guarantee.
Not just guaranteed not just yield: capital preservation is not guaranteed. You can buy market paper, and they will fall in price twice.
Therefore, the inexperienced investor is better to buy paper index ETF, one or two index funds (for example, index Foundation Spy, the following dynamics of the S & P500 index) and one or two bond funds, not separate shares and bonds.
And yet, what kind of profitability can be expected from trust management? Is it possible to give the brazers of the board manager and forget about money for 2-3 years?
Only not a manager. there is different variants Trust management, for example, "Full Du", when the client only coordinates the investment strategy manager, and then the manager holds transactions within the framework of the strategy at its discretion. This deadlock in our reality is to hope that someone will take care of your money better than you yourself. When investing in the tools, reflecting the dynamics wide marketYou get profitability corresponding to the average dynamics of the entire market.
The stock market is growing for the 10th year.
Yes, on August 22, the current period of growth ("bull market") broke the record of the 90s (113 months) and became the longest period in the history of the modern stock market.
The S & P500 index has grown 4.14 times since March 2009. This corresponds to average annual yield of 16.33% (with such calculations, the formula is used complex percent). But during the periods of the recession, the index may fall at tens of percent.
Per last year Did you really get 16.33% yield?
It was possible and more. The NASDAQ index for 12 months (on August 24, 2018 to the same date last year) rose by 25.74%.
But to manage your portfolio, we must comprehend the Ase of the stock market. There is nothing to do with knowledge.
Everything to hell is confused. Although at first it can take away, earn + xx%.
Other options for saving money in Belarus are? How do you feel about bonds of private companies?
To invest a way better than stock markethave not come up with.
Bonds are a tool for specialists, not for a private investor. This should be dealt with professionally. If with the purchase of bonds everything was so simple and safe: anyone had bought a bond and guaranteed earned its 7% per annum in currency, "no one would sell such bonds" Retail ", banks would have redeemed all emissions.
To save money, you can hide under the pillow or put in the statebank for a long deposit.
The circle closed, and we returned to deposits again.
Record low inflation - 4.6%. At the same time, the government almost managed to reach an average salary of 1000 rubles. What will be the earnings of Belarusians in 2018? How many prices will grow? And what course is the currency to prepare Belarusians? The senior analyst Alpari Vadim Josub failed the financial results for January and gave a forecast for the main indicators for the current year.
Photo: Dmitry Brushko, Tut.by
What will be the dollar rate?
In January, the dollar to the Belarusian ruble went up by 0.57%, the euro rose by 4.08%, the Russian ruble added 2.84%. Currency basket for a month increased by 2.4%. At first glance, it may seem that this is quite a bit, especially compared to the "shock" periods, when the growth has accounted for up to 50% during the month, the expert says. But here you need to take into account important moment, notes Vadim Iosub:
« The National Bank put the goal so that inflation this year does not exceed 6%. A normal phenomenon if the currency is devalued is approximately proportional to inflation, if it depreciates much faster, this indicates a certain market to be unbalanced. The fall of the Belarusian ruble on the half apler per month - it would be normal and natural».
As for the forecast for a year, by December, the expert expects a dollar growth to 2 rubles 10 kopecks, euro - up to 2.60, and russian currency - 3.75 per 100 rubles. But this is subject to the preservation of cross-courses at current levels. That is, if the euro to the dollar, for example, cheaper, it will also affect their courses in relation to the Belarusian ruble.
Inflation and average salary: Much decides the administrative resource
According to Vadim Iosuba, inflation by the end of the year will be slightly higher than the plank that the National Bank puts itself - at about 7%. The decisive influence will be the components for which prices are installed administratively: public transport, Housing and utilities rates, said expert. It is closely connected with this and the level of medium salary in the country.
« It is necessary to predict not what will be with the country's economy, and whether the power will take some actions for the further wool wage, "says Vadim Josub. - If the power refuses completely from administrative measures, the economy has little chance by the end of the year to get out of the average salary to the claimed level of 1000 rubles. Revenue growth will be proportional to GDP growth, which, according to my forecasts, will be about 2%, and not announced by the state 3.5%. But even if you consider the most optimal forecast, throw 6-7% of inflation here - we get an increase in income by about 10%.
The sharp increase in the average salary in December was due to the quarterly and annual premiumsAs well as other accounting triggers, I am convinced by Vadim Josub. According to his forecast, in January average salary Roll back to the level of about 830 rubles.
Keeping money in Belarusian rubles is still most profitable
Vadim Josub advises to diversify savings. Approximately half can be kept in Belarusian rubles. And the optimal option, in his opinion, is a deposit.
Store cash under the pillow there is no point in mind, given the rates in rubles, which have grown up to 13%. The currency part can be divided between the dollar and the euro, "says Vadim Josub.
But the expert does not invest in the Russian ruble. On the one hand, there is a good potential due to the current oil. But it is worth considering unpredictable political and sanction risks.
Cryptocurrency: bubble that gradually begins to bloom
The question of cryptocurrencies causes a smile on the face of Vadim Iosuba. He suggests immediately considering that this is a typical "bubble". In his opinion, this conclusion can be made by price change and their dynamics of the most popular cryptocurrency - Bitcoin. And one should not confuse the concept of "bubble" and "Pyramid," says the expert. "Pyramid" is always crime, deception of gullible people. And the "bubble" is a phenomenon that is characterized by a sharp rise of prices, and then often - no less sharp drop. So people in the market behave. "Bubble" can be in prices at least on oil, even on tulips. And this does not characterize the goods itself. And the situation with Bitcoin fully claims to enter the textbooks on the economy - as a characteristic example of a "bubble", says Vadim Josub.
Suppose that a person has an amount equivalent to 1,000 dollars. Based on which criteria, he should make a decision where it is better to store this money - houses under a pillow or in a bank?
The first question to which man needs to be answered is in what currency he wants to keep savings: in foreign or in Belarusian rubles. If he makes a decision to store in the currency, now the exchange contributions are not much higher than half aproter annual. Therefore, income such a contribution will bring quite modest. In this case, there is no fundamental difference where to store money - houses under the pillow or in a bank. This is actually a matter of taste.
If a person decides to keep savings in rubles, then serious amounts to leave a special meaning under the pillow never had and has no now. Ruble deposit rates are consistently reduced, but they are still quite interesting. They almost twice the current inflation.
At the same time, in each particular case, it is necessary to analyze how long a person can freeze money on the contribution. The most interesting maximum bets - on long-term irrevocable deposits. If a person knows that he can afford to put money in the bank for the next two years and they will not be needed, then you need to stop your choice on such a deposit.
If a person is not sure that he can freeze such an amount for a long time, it should remember that according to the short and on the responsible, and even more so on the short-term and revaluable contributions of the bet not so interesting. They barely exceed existing inflation.
The question in which currency is to store savings, is the question of only preferences or experts can advise what currency will stop?
No expert can look into the future. He predicts him, but does not know for sure. Therefore, I think any normal experts would have agreed that the best principle is diversification. That is, some of the savings can be stored in foreign currency, part - in Belarusian rubles.
In our history there were moments when it was naturally completely from the Belarusian ruble to get rid of when the ruble continuously fell in relation to foreign currencieswas inflation. Now in relation to the dollar, the ruble has been strengthened for more than a year since January 2016. Therefore, the tactics of full avoidance of the ruble lost their relevance.
Given the relatively high interest rates on the ruble, at all could be recommended at this stage the Belarusian ruble as a prevailing savings currency. But remember how many times in history people were burned on the ruble collaps, it is hard to advise them to get rid of the currency in favor of the Belarusian ruble, despite the fact that such behavior may have been rational from an economic point of view. This behavior is hard psychologically.
Therefore, to keep the balance between the yield and psychological comfort, it is reasonable to divide the savings on the ruble and currency parts.
According to the National Bank, in April 2017, the average rates on ruble deposits have reached a historic minimum. What does it mean? For an ordinary person who has a ruble contribution, is it bad?
This means that the rates are consistently reduced and reached a minimum. Most contributions have floating rates that are reduced after the refinancing rate. But I want to pay attention to that the investor matters not nominal, but a real interest rate.
The real interest rate is a nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation. A simple question: a 20% deposit rate is good or bad? If the rate on the deposit is 20%, and inflation is 30%, then bad. If the deposit rate is 20%, and inflation is 10%, then well.
Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank reduced the refinancing rate, which means that deposit rates decreased. But at the same time, inflation quickly decreased. Therefore, real return, that is, how many people really earn on deposits, it is not so quickly reduced, as the nominal rates are reduced.
- What do you need to pay attention to, choosing a bank? How to determine the contribution?
In Belarus, a fairly unique situation, when deposits in banks are guaranteed by the state. Therefore, from my point of view, we, unlike Ukraine, there are practically no risk of one or another bank. We, roughly speaking, there is a general risk banking systemwhich rests on the solvency of the state itself.
Based on this, Belarusians are in a unique comfortable situation. It seems to me that it is not worth analyzing the solvency of a bank, one can concentrate on the choice of maximum yield.
- And if there is no 2,000 rubles from a person, but only 200, is there any sense to carry them to the bank?
In order to simply take 200 rubles, to take them to the bank and to leave there, probably there is no big economic meaning. But if a person has a permanent income and he is such that it allows not only to live all the money, but also to postpone the monthly, it makes sense to begin. Take 200 rubles to the bank and then replenish the account monthly. If a person chose such tactics, he should pay attention: can it be regularly replenished.
So, we assume that we are the happy owners of several hundred / thousand / tens of thousands (necessary to emphasize) newly denominated and smelling paint Belarusian rubles. This is the money that we will not need to be guaranteed soon.
In my opinion, they usually make up somewhere 10-50% of all available. How are they better to dispose of? I have my own opinion on this.
No matter how strangely sounded, but money is similar to products. Both those and others may be excess or disadvantaged, can make a person benefit or harm, and also have a bad property - over time to deteriorate.
In order not to spoil the products, people came up with refrigerators and a cookbook. With money, it is an order of magnitude harder. Therefore, consider this question more. In order for money to be spoiled, they need or consume (spend) or can consight to use in the future to buy something big and valuable or in the period when difficult times will come.
American entrepreneur and Millionaire Robert Kiyosaki said: "Manage your money, and they, in turn, will take care of you."
We define the main types of care, canning and multiplying money available to the absolute majority of our citizens:
- storage in a safe / cubic / glass jar (to choose from)
- storage on the currency deposit account
- storage on the Deposit Account in Belarusian Rubles
The remaining species, including various bonds, trust management Cash, opening your own business, game on the Forex exchange and other requiring certain knowledge and skills are not massive.
Yes, and the amounts of our fellow citizens, unfortunately, are too modest for such investments. For this reason, we will not consider them.
Storage of money in a safe / cubic / glass jar - The easiest way, but he is the most neral. Keep the money of the house is unsafe, experienced criminals in two minutes will find our cache in the closet or under the mattress. We will have to pay for the rental depositary cell in the bank.
There are also cases of infection of bills of mold and different fungi. And to top it all - our cash It will "bite" inflation.
You can, of course, translate rubles to currency. But inflation concerns it too. Agree, 100 $ now and they are 20 years ago is the sky and the earth. Buying ability is different.
Storage on the currency deposit accountit may rather be considered as a tool for preserving the accumulated, rather than to obtain a tangible additional income. At the deposit account, in contrast to the depositary cell, our money is not terrible any diseases and viruses. Nobody steals them and will not eat (I want to believe in it, because nobody canceled force major situations).
The maximum contribution rate in the currency is 4%, for which we will have to say goodbye to money for half two years! When placed for a period of two years, income tax will be held with us.
And 4% declared by banks will turn into a real ~ 3.5%. And this is somehow not very interesting. Therefore, in existing realities, the deposit in the currency may be considered as the most secure and convenient way saving money. Judging by the data of the National Bank, the majority of our compatriots believes.
Storage on the Deposit Account in Belarusian Rubles - Most favorable attachment Funds today, but it is rather risky. Unfortunately, the rate of 50% per annum went into oblivion. But in the long-standing time of such fabulous revenues on the deposits of the risks "fly, like a thin wood over the capital of France," were also very high :)
In such cases I needed intuition.
In the current current economic situation in the country, when the government predicts that in 2017 the growth rate of the gross domestic product of Belarus will be 1.5%, and inflation will not exceed 9%, I also want to be an optimist. In the nearest foreseeable future, analysts and experts also do not predict our serious financial cataclysms.
Of course, you can be skeptical to these forecasts, but over the past year the government did not give us reason to doubt the determination to achieve these indicators. The refinancing rate is declining systemally, and interest rates on loans and deposits decreases behind it.
Therefore, the risk lovers of acute sensations who have not had time to jump into the last twenty-percent car deposit train should be hurried. More experts appear with variable rates, less and less with fixed. And this is no accident ...
Jump up into the "30%" carriage, we no longer have time (and in vain, as time has shown), so we will throw something that is not very sorry to take a chance, all our temporarily "unnecessary" hundreds and thousands of rubles, in a 20% car. It remains for small: choose a train.
To do this, let's turn for help to the infoBank and study the topic "Top 5 best deposits", or we use the search.
Select a period of 1 year (in order not to pay income tax percent), the remaining items can be changed. If the cash is needed not earlier than in 12 months, then, having studied all the proposed options, from all the variety for our case, you can choose the following contributions.
| № P / P. |
Name of the Bank and Deposit, interest rate | Time | Capitalization% Possibility of replenishment |
| 1 | Belagroprombank OJSC Refining "Standard" in Bel.rublyakh (20.5% floating) |
370 days | yes Yes |
| 2 | MTBank CJSC Refining "Mtbelki 12 months" in Belarusian rubles (Cf + 2% floating) |
12 months | yes, twice a month not |
| 3 | Bank Moscow - Minsk OJSC Refining "Capital" in Belarusian rubles for 12 months (cf + 2% floating) |
12 months | yes Yes |
Review deposits did not fall into the comparative table, because even in the absence of a reduced percent early termination They are significantly inferior at attractiveness irrevocable.
As can be seen from the table, maximum rate It is floating in all banks.
However, we already know that the refinancing rate will soon be reduced, which will entail a decrease in interest rates on deposits. The only deposit not tied to it is in Belagroprombank.
"The experienced ducts" will not give to sit that the bank, if possible, is trying even a floating rate on deposits to maintain at the level not lower than the market. Therefore, I think that the choice must be stopped on it.
The funds that in the coming year will not be needed can be put on the contribution "Standard" for 370 days. Most recently, it was possible to replenish it. I consider it an additional advantage.
Means that may be needed during this year consider it appropriate to place on the revital contribution of the same bank "25 years together". The rate of deposit 16% fixed first 95 days, then floating.
However, after the specified period, the contribution can be taken at any time without recalculating percent reduced rate. In my opinion, due to the absence of any alternatives in the form of a convenient savings cards, also a good option. The contribution can be replenished, and you can terminate if you need.
It remains for the completeness of the picture to evaluate the currency risks and profitability of the contribution in rubles when changing the exchange rate. Because Our floating deposits interest rate, it will be problematic, but we will believe that the rate will remain unchanged all 370 days. We must hope for the best :)
Again, we use the help of the infoBank and compare the "Standard" contribution with its rate of 20.5% and some is the most profitable now currency contribution With a 4% rate. (Suppose that this is the first year of two).
It turns out:
- during the course 1 US dollar 2.31 white. ruble contribution and currency deposit will have the same yield
- rate 1 US dollar less than 2.31 more advantageous contribution in white Rubble
- during the course 1 US dollar more than 2.31 more profitable contribution to the currency
Now we have to hope that we did not dare jumped into this last car that the train driver knows the road, and that the Belarusian partisans have long retraced in peaceful bank employees :)
P.. S.. Request reading To the end, not to perceive written as a guide to action, it is only my opinion, but take note, I think it will not be superfluous;)
