Commenting on the decision to leave a key rate at a constant level of 7.25%, adopted by the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation following the meeting on Friday, July 27, Director of Analytics Kibe Bank "Opening" Dmitry Harlampiev notes that it coincided with expectations of experts and forecasts of all respondents Bloomberg market participants (100% of respondents). In the official commentary, the regulator pointed to the preservation of low actual inflation, the formation of a trend for its return to the target level of 4% and temporary exceeding target, but already in 2019.
Dmitry Harlampiev points out explicit signs that central bank Taking into account the changed conditions, transfers expectations to transition to neutral monetary policy for 2019 (previously such a transition was predicted for 2018), without specifying in this case to reduce the potential or target neutral rate range.
"According to the latest available data, the neutral range of the real interest rate is 2-3%, while not being a constant, - writes in its comments by the Opening Cyb Bank analyst analyst. - The deflationary factor at the present stage is almost zero change in prices for food products, while in the case of a non-food market there is a moderate acceleration of prices, primarily in the segment of petroleum products. Own prediction regarding the dynamics of CPI and GDP for the current year of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation preserves in a constant form - 3.5-4.0% and 1.5-2.0%, respectively. "
Meanwhile, the market is given obvious intelligence risks associated primarily with uncertainty about the scale of secondary effects from accepted tax solutions (raising VAT rates by 2% from the beginning of 2019). It tries inflationary expectations - in June, this indicator rose by +1.2 percentage points. - up to + 9.8%. There are also risks in the context of external factors - the growth of profitable markets, topical geopolitical risks, the total growth of volatility in the global financial market.
"Taking into account the developing conditions," expert summarizes, "we tend to the fact that the regulator will refrain from reducing the key bet in 2018 and the first" step "is possible not earlier than the end of the 1st quarter of 2019."
Positive Week for the Russian ruble, which may reach 8% by the end of the year
The lead analyst "Opening a broker" Andrei Kochetkov believes that russian market spent a positive week, but again it may be under pressure from political news, as in the US Congress continues to use russian question In election rhetoric.
As for the external attributive conditions, the kochetkov draws attention to the growth of the American economy, which accelerated to 4.1% of growth in the second quarter, which fully justifies the rather rigid position of the Fed. This week, the American regulator will hold a regular meeting, which is not waiting for changes in monetary policyBut very carefully will be studied the final statement.
Japan will begin a week with the publication of retail statistics. The Eurozone will receive a report on business and consumer confidence, as well as indices of business climate and economic expectations. In the US, data will come out on unfinished real estate transactions. In Russia, "LUKOIL" will close the registry for participation in the erect. TGK-1 will report on the RAS for the II quarter and half of the year, as well as RusHydro.
Information that is able to interest the cities and regions of Russia, the replenishment of the budgets of which depend on the revenues of metallurgical companies: the prices for reinforcement steel in China have reached a maximum of five and a half years on concerns of reducing production. The PRC authorities continue to strengthen the struggle with air pollution, which involves a significant reduction in dirty industries in a number of key cities, including Tangshan and Changjow.
Kochetkov draws attention that the Russian market was able to strengthen its position last week. However, buyers' activity was restrained by regular statements from Washington, where continue to play russian map In the pre-election company of this year. The head of the International Committee of the Senate even allowed the adoption of new restrictions before intermediate elections to Congress in early November. "If it were not for the risks of new troubles from the United States, the Mosbier's index could already be higher than the mark of 2400 p. - Expert believes - and the ruble leave the range of 61.5-64.5 to the side of 60 rubles per dollar. At the beginning of August, the ruble may be under low pressure due to seasonal factors. In particular, we are talking about a high tourist season, as well as about the conversion of dividends by non-residents. On the other hand, the consolidation regime is most likely, both in the stock market and the currency session. "
Timur Nigmatullin colleague indicates that on Monday, the US dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange loses about 0.1% and is traded near the mark of 62.8 rubles, while in the center of the USD formed after the April sanctions of the US "Bokovik" with the oscillation range within 60-65 rubles .
"Meanwhile, in our opinion, current price levels are significantly overestimated by the fundamentally reasonable meanings due to aspects. budget Policy Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the ratio of interest rates of central banks of the two countries and the general macroeconomic situation, "the expert is sure.
Analysts "Opening Broker" predict a gradual restoration of the balance on currency marketpreviously observed during the 2017 and 1st quarter of 2018. The direct effect of the imposed sanctions is objectively insignificant russian economy, the risk of new tough sanctions, incl. against the Russian public debt, negligible small. As the rhetoric of the US political authorities is weakened (in fact, we already observe this process) non-residents will return to the ruble state debt, which will create prerequisites for transition currency pair Dollar / ruble to the usual range of fluctuations 55.5-61. Our basic forecast for the end of 2018 is 57.7 rubles per dollar.
Bank "Opening" comes with customers to contact
The Bank "Opening" became the first bank that offered its customers a new information informing service - the Messenger of the Social Network VKontakte (VC), the Press Service of the Bank reports. Now customers will be able to not only receive information about all operations on their card account in the channel usual for them, but also ask their questions to the Bank's experts and get an answer online.
In addition to the Messenger VK, in the "Opening" will also continue to act informing through SMS, Viber and Push notifications in mobile bank. The ability to connect to VC will be all customers who have received the appropriate notification in the messenger. At the same time, if there is no connection to the Internet, operation notifications will continue to come across SMS.
"I would like to emphasize that the confidentiality of information transmitted through the messenger will be saved. VKontakte is one of the most popular social networks Among our customers, and we want to provide users with the opportunity to communicate with their bank where it is more convenient, "said Alexey Pevgov, director in the direction of Dijital projects of the Otkriti bank.
Prepared Sergey Avdeev
Plane
In the United States, a bill containing a number of new anti-Russian measures was introduced to the Upper Chamber of Congress. This, as well as pessimism in the oil market, explains a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate. On the eve of Forex, the dollar rate to the ruble rose to its maximum from November 2016 - 65.09 rubles. In the morning on Friday, August 9, the ruble trades on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the range from 66.0 to 66.5 rubles / dollars.
As the RIA Novosti Agency reminds, in finding new reasons to enhance the pressure on Moscow, US senators decided to play a "British map": the so-called "scripty case", in whose poisoning in March, London is unreasonably accused of the Russian state. The states fell on the side of their ally, Slavs from the country 60 Russian diplomats, but formally did not conclusions about the involvement of the Russian Federation to poison.
It is possible that this position will turn into new package Anti-Russian sanctions, which, in the event of adoption of the law, will be divided into two stages. The first part involves a complete ban on exports to Russia electronic devices and components of a double value. The second packet will be introduced into force in three months, "if Russia does not give guarantees not to apply chime buildings in the future." At the same time, it should be recalled that the Russian Federation is the most stringent executor of agreements on its non-use and non-proliferation. Restrictive measures may include a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations, a ban on flights to the United States of the Russian airline Aeroflot and almost complete cessation of American exports.
As for the oil, the raw material segment was put on the Russian statistics in the United States, where, last week, oil reserves dropped by 1.4 million barrels when analysting analysts at 2.8 million barrels. As a result, the cost of Brent fell to $ 71.8 per barrel, and the exchange rate is up to 65.55 rubles per dollar and 76.13 for the euro.
Attack on the ruble
It is clear, the expert of the International Financial Center Vladimir Rozhankovsky is indicated that everyone is now waiting for devaluation. But yesterday yesterday with the ruble is a staged trick. "I'm on the market - since 1996, for the ruble I follow since 1991. It is able to distinguish a fundamental attenuation from the adjusted attack, "says the analyst. - In the morning in the region of 11: 00-12: 00 At the same time an article appeared in RBC about the ultimatum of American senators Putin: with new sanctions, it is possible to postpone if Russia promises more firmly to fulfill the Convention on the Non-Proliferation of Chemical Weapons (there was a "creiplery case" and Syria) . But already at 19:00 Moscow time it was announced that the United States implies sanctions against Russia because of the "scripold case", which is devoid of logic. Finally, at about the same time, information appeared that Senator Rand Paul brought a letter from Donald Trump to Moscow. Obviously (although it is not yet unusable) that the aforementioned absurdity is connected with the fact that there was a leak of information that the letter of Trump Putin is already on his table, so American politicians had to break the whole logical chain, all the plans. "
What are the forecasts regarding the ruble restoration? Favorable, I am sure Vladimir Rozhankovsky. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a good tested medium-term mechanism - ruble-dollar swaps. Today, according to the analyst, in no case cannot begin stock exchange currency trading without careful preliminary selection of applications for the purchase of currency. In such applications, the purpose of the purchase of currency should be clearly spelled out and the purpose of purchasing currency is, especially in the amount of over 250-300 million dollars.
Difficulties and adaptation
As for specifically American sanctions, then the leading analyst Forex Optimum Ivan Kapustyansky is confident, the new package is formal, as well as the reason itself - an attempt to poison in London of ex-colonel GRU Sergei Skripal. Double-use goods will fall under the ban. In fact, such goods were already prohibited for sale in Russia by previously introduced sanctions, but there are some positions that will be added, for example, avionics. However, in 2015, Russian aviation producers talked about the start of import substitution in this area.
The second package of sanctions is tougher, but again not deadly, the expert is sure. Diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and the United States are already at a minimum, while Russians adapted and beneficially receive visas in the CIS countries. The abolition of direct flights Aeroflot will also not affect citizens significantly. You can safely get through Europe to the United States.
The toughest measures concern the ban to invest in state debt Russia and the prohibition of transactions in US dollars by state banks of the Russian Federation. In fact, this is the scenario of Iran. In this regard, Ivan Kapustyansky considers, of course, transaction costs will grow sharply and Russia will hold settlements in the euro, but in general the situation is also not fatal. At the same time, the United States will not be able to fully isolate the Russian Federation. Since really has limited pressure levers.
The volatility in the foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation will persist, analyst believes. At the same time, the "aromaticization" of sanctions will continue, the ruble will be under pressure. However, current sales are still panic. Against this background, the dollar / ruble pair can reach 70, and the euro / ruble to 80 rubles is predicted in Forex Optimum Ivan. However, the same strong increase in the future can also be leveled by a drop back. By the end of the year, at the current situation, the ruble will remain under pressure, especially if oil starts to decline. It is possible that by the end of the year, the dollar / ruble will reach 68-70 and stabilizes, and the euro / ruble will suit the range of 78-80 rubles.
Today at the auction on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar rate exceeded 66 rubles for the first time since November 2016. The currency at the opening of the auction was estimated at 66.34 rubles. In addition to the American currency at the bidding of the Moscow stock exchange, the euro, which is estimated at 77 rubles. Course foreign currency Grows against the background of the US intention to introduce new sanctions. According to the media, among the proposed measures - to recognize our country with one of the sponsors of terrorism, as well as prohibit Russian state banks calculations in US dollars. While the document has not been published anywhere. Against the background of these news and began to grow a dollar and euros. In addition, the shares were strongly asked russian companies.
Experts are confident that panic investors will quickly stop and the ruble will begin to strengthen.
- Estimated sanctions last years Influence on the ruble exchange rate, but the effect is limited. Players of the foreign exchange market are trying to use sanctions in their own interests. There are much more powerful factors than sanctions of Western countries: oil prices, prices for resources, for example, says Associate Professor of the Department political economy MSU named after Lomonosov Maxim Chirkov. - The ruble will tend to strengthen.
Recall that on June 19, the dollar has already exceeded 64 rubles, but the growth was short and soon returned to the May values \u200b\u200bof 62-63 rubles per dollar.
There is no fundamental reasons for the ruble exchange rate against major reserve currencies, the expert of the International Financial Center Vladimir Rozhankovsky is also confident.
- The reasons for the collapse of the ruble, as it was in 2014, no. Then oil fell in price by 2 times - in the area 50 dollars per barrel. Now against the background of anti-heian sanctions, on the contrary, there is a potential for its growth above $ 80 per barrel - to the maximum from November 2014. That is, the risks of reducing the flow of currency into our country and, accordingly, its deficit is small, and the factor of possible oil growth to 80 dollars is not taken into account now, - the expert notes. - Dollar after emotional purchases against the background of speculation will be back in the range of 63.4-64.2 rubles.
According to experts from Alpari, the weakening of the ruble exchange rate is speculative.
"The undertaking ruble exchange rate is beneficial to Russian exporters, especially the oil and gas sector industry, the agricultural sector, a number of types of engineering and metallurgy. So, the Russian budget will demonstrate a steady increase in surplus, but at the same time weakening the Nationalities will reduce inflation to the target forecast of the government and the Central Bank for 2018. At the level of 4%, "experts explain.
Last week, a group of US senators has submitted a bill with a whole set of anti-Russian measures to the Upper Chamber of Congress, including with sanctions against the new State Demand of the Russian Federation and Gosbankov. Any details were not revealed, so the experts began to guess the essence of the sanctions. Among one of the measures was called and disabling Russian banks from the SWIFT payment information information system. However, experts are confident that before that does not happen.
"It is unprofitable and the Americans himself. There are many foreign, including American, companies. The opponent of such a radical sanctuction project remains the head of the US Department of Europe, Stephen Mnuchin," they assure.
Recall that on August 8, the price of oil fell by 3%, naturally, the dollar and the euro rose by 2% and almost 2.5%, respectively. In Russia, the price of oil and the dollar rate (or euro) in the context of the stabilization of the economy is usually associated internally proportional dependence. If the price of oil is growing, the dollar rate is reduced, and vice versa, when the price of oil falls, the dollar is growing.
"In the future, the dollar will grow, but quite slow the pace, if there is no collapse of oil prices, which is unlikely due to the instability of the political situation in the world," the most experts surveyed by the Life.
According to economists, the Russians should not panic and rush to banks to change rubles for dollars and euros. Especially if we are not talking about long-term savings. Investments in currencies can be effective in long-term investment.
"What a longer period, a person wants to postpone the money, the greater the reason to look in the direction of the currency. For those who save for a year - two, there are no currency alternatives. Those who save for a short time, for several months, most often change the ruble on the currency is meaningless - the exchange first in one, then the other way is worth the money. And you can lose more on these expenses than to win on currency course- they say.
The Russian currency collapsed to a two-year minimum. The official dollar rate established by the Central Bank for tomorrow, grew by 2.69 rubles, to 66.28 rubles. The euro went up even stronger - by 3 rubles, to 76.82 rubles. National currency is cheaper due to the threat of new sanctions by the United States.
What is Washington expands sanctions?
The regular package of anti-Russian sanctions states are injected for the so-called. "Case of Skiplays" - despite the fact that no evidence of Moscow's involvement in the poisoning of the citizens of Great Britain Sergey and Yulia Skriplabia is not, the United States accuses Russia in violating international law. New sanctions imply restrictions on deliveries in the Russian Federation of dual-use products. They should enter into force on August 22.
But that's not all. Washington gives Moscow a three-month term for the fact that our country has proven that it will not be used by chemical weapons. In addition, Russia must start UN Observers to their chemical enterprises. Otherwise, the states will introduce more stringent sanctions. In particular, Congressmen propose to block American accounts and assets of a number of Russian banks with stateships (Sberbank, VTB, Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank). In addition, Americans can ban their investors to invest in Russian debentures (OFZ - federal loan bonds).
"The" Case of Scriptles "excites the minds of American politicians, and they again took up pressure attempts to Russia. New sanctions are a bright example. In order for us to life with honey, it is necessary to all Russians and, first of all, to harm the Russian business. For this there are sanctions. And they will certainly work, and I have no doubt that there will be more new sanctions against our country. No wonder in the doctrine National Security US countries such as Iran, China, DPRK and Russia are named the main enemies and threats of American security and democracy, "says head of the Analytical Department of the International Financial Center Roman Blinov.
Why does the ruble get cheaper?
The current weakening of the ruble partly is associated with the panic sales of Russian bonds of the federal loan, which are selling, above all, Western investors noted analyst investment company Freedan Finance Valery Bezuglov.
In addition, on the eve of more than 3%, oil quotes fell. Brent's raw materials (from its cost depends on the price of the Russian Urals grade) decreased by 3.71%, to $ 71.88 per barrel. The WTI grade oil fell by 3.99%, to 66.41 dollars per barrel.
What will happen to the ruble on?
The surveyed AIF.RU experts admit that in the future the Russian currency will continue to weaken. According to expert "BCS Broker" Ivan Kopeikina,the dollar can strengthen up to 67 rubles, euro - up to 78 rubles.
"It is necessary to understand that the ruble is the currency of the developing country, and it moves from devaluation to devaluation, with periods of five to ten years, and the reason for these devaluation is the weakness of the raw material economy, in the outflow of capital based on internal policies, in low performance Labor and the dominance of state and state-owned companies in the economy.
And in the conditions of sanctions, all these conditions are additionally aggravated, as the economy is forced to calculate almost exclusively on their own forces, its own limited financial resources. I believe that by September the ruble, most likely, will be released in a new range to the dollar, 65-70 rubles, and the only thing that will restrain it - this is a suspension of the currency purchases, which the Central Bank announced, "adds director of the Expert Group Veta Dmitry Jarsky.
To push the Russian currency down the expectations of new sanctions against the Russian public debt, against Russian companies, output foreign investors (Carrie traders) from ruble assets lists the expert.
On the ruble will be crushed and failed down oil, which cannot be held above 75 dollars per barrel Brent and will slide down 70 dollars per barrel.
"We will add to this also a panic among the population, which will definitely spur demand for cash currency, and even more devalue the ruble, "explains the jar.
What can support the ruble?
Maintain the ruble will be two things - high prices for oil and the Russian Central Bank, Kopeykin says.
"Bank of Russia, for example, may, as in 2014, use the tools of the so-called" fine tuning on the absorption of ruble liquidity "or at all raise the rate at the near meeting," the expert indicates.
In turn, Valery Bezuglov believes that most pessimism in the foreign exchange market has already occurred. "Following the results of yesterday, the bonds demonstrated the growth rate of 10-20 basis items practically across the entire curve against the background of exacerbation of geopolitics. Most of the pessimism in the foreign exchange market has already occurred, since all the information on potential new sanctions has been disclosed by the investment community. However, by the end of the week, high jumps in the foreign exchange market will be saved. On the horizon of two weeks, the dollar will be sold at 65-66 rubles, "he summarizes.
On Tuesday, the ruble rose significantly due to the strengthening of currencies developing countries Against the background of the decision of the Central Bank of Turkey, take measures to support the Lyra and a significant increase in the cost of oil, which grows by reducing production Saudi Arabia and hints to an increase in world demand for raw materials.
As expected, investors did not respond to yesterday's publication by the US government official draft law on fresh anti-Russian sanctions, since no new information on restrictions in the text was contained, and the entire potential attitude of the players were included in the course of the National Course last week.
In the near future, quotes will receive support from domestic exporters, which will have to convert and pay in the treasury about 1.8 trillion rubles as part of the tax period starting today.
The current increase in the value of raw materials can easily be changed by a fall, because high oil prices have become possible due to the desire of the United States to stop export from Iran. However, now we can observe the desire of Iranians at the expense of discounts to conclude long-term contracts with Asian countries, including the PRC, which will make it difficult to make the country's economic blockade. In addition, even if Washington's plans are brought into life, the market shortage is unlikely to: Moscow and ER Riyadh will easily fill the emptiness.
The tightening of American monetary policy can adversely affect the ruble rate: Turbulence in emerging markets has practically did not affect the US economy. As a result, the Fed can improve interest rate Twice twice before the end of the year, which will lead to an increase in the dollar and the outflow of capital from countries with increased risk.
Cost russian currency By December depends on two factors - the cost of raw materials and the influx / outflow of non-resident capital. If forecasts for growth slowdown global economy And the consumption of fuel will come true, then oil can chef to 68 dollars per barrel, which, together with the flight of foreigners from domestic papers, under the influence of fresh sanctions, should send the course of the National Course to the 72 rubles per dollar.
However, if the situation will be the most optimistic way, then the ruble is although they will not be expected to expect a special recovery. Especially considering the lack of interest from the domestic regulator to strengthen it. Most likely, the level below is 62.50 rubles for the dollar we will not see for the new year.
