From the dossier "RG"
Khazin Mikhail Leonidovich
Born in 1962 he studied in the Yaroslavl State University and in Moscow State University, in the specialty - mathematician. In 1984-1991 He worked in the system of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, in 1993-1994. - in the working center of economic reforms under the Government of the Russian Federation, in 1995-1997. - Head of the Department of Credit Policy of the Ministry of Economy of Russia, in 1997-1998. - Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the President of the Russian Federation. In 1998 he left the state service. Today is the president of the company's expert consultation "Neokon". The author of the sensational book "Sunset of the Dollar Empire and the end of" Pax Americana ".
It was Hazin who laid the foundations of global crisisology in Russia. It is enough to remember the number of its 2006 articles and the conclusion from 11/27/2007: "The collapse of the global financial system: remained dayd days."
Order crisis?
WG: On the laurels of the "crisis predictor", the American economist Lester Torouu pretends with you, which in the 70s wrote that the United States was dependent on China, and this will destroy them. How do you feel about Turouney's ideas?
Mikhail Khazin / Here it is necessary to clarify something. The main reason for the modern crisis is the so-called "Reaganian", that is, the policy of stimulating in the United States of finite demand, both public and private. The export of production from the United States to China was a response to the beginning of the difficulty in the American economy, and for this reason, no way could cause the crisis.
And as before me and my colleagues ... We understood that the collapse of the United States is possible in 1997, but then, due to the specifics of the civil service, on which I was, I could not insist on this. And our first article, published in July 2000 in the journal "Expert", was called "Did the USA APOKALOPSIS?" The question mark was removed only in 2001, after we undertaken by the study of the intersectoral balance of the United States, when the scale of the disproportions became clear.
WG: So you already in 2001 began to beat the Nabat, arguing that the crisis is inevitable?
Khazin: Exactly. But we were not listened to us.
WG: And what will you say about the opinion that the Americans themselves actually adjusted the crisis to "save the world" on favorable conditions for themselves, how did they do after the Second World War ("Marshall Plan")?
Khazin: As Stanislavsky used to his friend Nemirovich-Danchenko: "I do not believe!" Too strong economic and socio-political implications for them arise. But in the fact that as soon as they realize that it is impossible to avoid the crisis, they began to use it as much as possible for its benefit - yes, of course believe.
WG: That is, the Americans will be engaged in themselves - at least, in terms of overcoming their own crisis?
Khazin: Most likely. And how to noted President Medvedev in his recent message, they will leave the crisis, despite the problems caused by this crisis in many other countries.
Why is the dollar so compromised?
WG: To reject world currencies from the dollar, Stalin rushed in early 1950s. But not untied. Why? And why didn't Russia tied the ruble, for example, to yuan?
Khazin: Yes, in the last years of the reign of Stalin, the ruble was not tied to the dollar. As for the "dislocation", then in 1944, when Bretton Woods agreements were concluded, binding all capitalist currencies to the dollar, and its, in turn, to gold, the US economy was more than 50 percent of the global. And now in production - only 20 percent. But on consumption - 40 percent. And how do you give up your currency, if you sell a significant part of the products you sell and actually live on this? China, Japan, the European Union today are exporting to the United States. How are you going to cancel it? Yes, it would be good to do it, but how?
WG: And what, unless to introduce national or other currencies in foreign trade?
Khazin: It is hard in the present conditions. First of all, because world trade is still very dollarized. And other money should be, let's say, fill in goods, services and, it means to be popular. Only then can they compete with the dollar.
WG: That is, it will not be quick?
Khazin: Unlikely. Because it requires innovative content and rapid innovative development of the economy. That is, not a raw material, but an industrial development vector, including the development of exports. Then the ruble will be much more reliable than the ruble "raw material".
WG: The ideas of the new global economic order roam in the minds from the 50s, especially they were popular in the third world. Maybe it's time to implement these ideas? So the President of Russia speaks of a new economic world order ...
Khazin: Well, one thing to talk, and another - really do. The countries of the Third World actually engaged in the lavaling between the two superpowers - and sometimes quite successfully. To destroy one of them, thereby depriving himself such a wonderful maneuver, they were not going at all. Yes, in 1971, the United States were forced to recognize their default - they abandoned the gold collateral, but still, the so-called "Pure" Bretton Voodoo, the so-called "Pure" Bretton Wood The dollar was built, and today there is a whole system of world finance.
WG: Did the dollar perfectly?
Khazin: The dollar performs two functions at once: it is also a world reserve, and a trade currency, a single measure of value, in the end. And on the other, this is the US National Currency. And while the United States accounted for 50 percent of the global economy, contradictions between these functions were insignificant. And now they have become dominant. The US is printed a dollar to improve the domestic economic situation, but at the same time weaken it as world currency. Therefore, problems in many countries where the dollar is influenced. And if the United States "kept" him as global currency, then the crisis would be much stronger there (and it would have long ago). That is the root of the problem.
When "slowed down" Russia?
WG: So, the dollar and "petroclars" are closely interrelated? But at what point Russia began to "slow down", that is, it is irrational to use oil extensions? And why?
Khazin: Yes from the very beginning! These money to the real sector practically did not reach - in particular, in innovative processes, the development of new technologies, training and the like. In fact, the money "was dissolved" before. And it could not be otherwise, because these questions now decide, often such financiers, many of which, in principle, do not understand how the enterprise works. Note that this is a world problem, except for China. Just we have it all stronger and before it started. So oil money is our opinion, in my opinion, did not go - yes, they allowed, mainly to increase the consumption of imports, especially food. And now, after a sharp drop in oil prices, "breaking" of such a situation will begin. However, how can we schedule long-term industrial projects when their financing actually depends on the "petrodollars" in the first place, with such substantial differences in oil prices?
WG: But then, as far as the budget of Russia is enough together with all its reserves, if the oil with gas in the world will continue the price drop?
Khazin: There are different estimates. The most pessimistic - that even before the new year may not be enough. Optimistic - what is enough, and for a long time. There is much more, again, depends on world prices for energyary and monetary policy. But I do not think that oil prices will quickly restore their former heights. First of all, because cheap oil is beneficial and needed by the United States, the European Union, Japan, that is, the main "points" of the global economy and the financial system. Russia is cheap oil is unprofitable. In this, perhaps, the main contradiction between the Russian Federation and the "American block" in the field of petroleum, and general economic policy.
WG: We will now tell you our point of view, and you will correct us if necessary. The so-called Russian state-capitalism recent years It was that the state created the mega-corporations that began to buy a private business. This requires loans that were taken in the West. From here - gigantic corporate debts that are now the main threat to Russia. Do you agree with this? And if so, why did the state corporation begin to buy ready-made capacity from private business?
Khazin: Well, some of the money on the buyup they received from the state. As for the purchase ... If such a corporation is headed by a financier (or one who changes the financier), then he, in most cases, does not understand the specifics of particular production.
WG: Do you repeat because this aspect is very important?
Khazin: Yes very. Say, this financier says that it is necessary to develop such a technology (or purchase), for example, 100 million dollars. He picks up according to his criteria and says: I will give you 200, but 100 - you will return. He is responsible that this is impossible: the technology is 100, and at least 40 may be required for its commissioning, including training of specialists, the training of engineers, and so on. And in his understanding - the proportions are others, and you do not need to cook. Financiers of this kind today - with a rebuppiness. Yes, and there is no new generation in the market the necessary technologists. That is, today again the same question - "Frames decide everything!"
WG: But small and medium business, although with difficulties, is already working?
Khazin: Yes it works. Here it is trying to "cover" to survive and at his expense. Explaining to its owners that the maximum that they can count is a place on a good salary in a large office. As a result, usually after such operations, the innovative part of small and medium-sized businesses is simply quietly dying. I know a lot of such precedents ...
Go to "bunnies"?
WG: Is it possible that Belarusians with Turkmenistan in the post-Soviet space will be the economic leaders in the post-Soviet space, which their policies of "pragmatic isolationism" and the comprehensive state control of the economy achieved the fact that their crisis touches where to a lesser extent?
Khazin: Why not? But they are too small. However, imagine that politics similar to economic policy, for example, Belarus, we would learn all these years! Then we could, in my opinion, to dictate many of our conditions. More precisely, I mean the policy of all sorts of stimulating precisely industrial growth.
WG: What Russia has not yet joined the WTO, is it good or bad? Will we all be there ever ever? And maybe on best conditionsWhat were we were presented in recent years?
Khazin: I have no confidence that the WTO will exist in its current form after a couple of years. For the current crisis will most likely continue and destroy the global financial, currency and trading system, so the modern WTO will not be almost certainly. Modern system World trade, controlled WTO, and, more precisely, the West, gradually decays. What will be in return - it is still difficult to say. It is possible that these will be regional trade units, and not a global organization.
Gold - for all times?
WG: Since we are economists-journalists, familiar and colleagues, we are often asked in recent days to keep savings. We advise them - in Swiss francs. Maybe they advise nonsense?
Khazin: What and that, in principle, maybe. But you have forgotten yuan, and gold coins - what is not worthy storage of savings today? The problem with savings is that the situation will change rather quickly: some currencies will grow, and then fall as fast, so the "expensive" assets will not be able to quickly sell and so on. As they say in the famous joke: "dark Ukrainian night, but the lard must be rewriting!" - If people want to shift the assets every week, then they will not give any tips. However, such shifts are unlikely to be effective.
WG: Well, nevertheless. Many experts advise return to the storage of savings primarily in gold ...
Khazin: Yes, I am convinced that the most profitable long-term investment today is gold coins. Today they are much more reliable than foreignlys. Former crises also showed that the savings in gold were, we can say preserved. And even increased, in contrast to cash savings. As for our conditions and the ruble itself, it is advisable, in my opinion, to store "accumulated" and in rubles in any bank. The main thing is that the deposit is less than 700,000 rubles.
WG: How do you think the prices of gasoline will behave, for food in Russia? And what will be with a social support system, first of all with a pension?
Khazin: The state, in my opinion, will strive to fully support the social system, for it has not only socio-economic importance for the state and society. Another thing is the real payment and purchasing power of these pensions and benefits in terms of price increases. Prices for gasoline can also fall, since the world oil prices fall (but, of course, not so much as much as oil prices), but the share of gasoline costs in the family budget can grow. The main thing here is the size and prospects of this budget, not to mention the pricing policy of gasoline business, if more precisely, oil companies. Yes, and the finished food in the world is by no means cheaper, and the share of imports in the Russian food consumption is still high and, according to a number of forecasts, can still increase.
WG: In other words, the structure of consumer demand will change, what will affect the prices?
Khazin: That's it! The crisis will strongly change and already begins to change the price structure, and the structure of consumption. And I do not exclude that families and middle wealth will have to limit consumption, be a gasoline or food.
Evgeny Arsyukhin, Alexey Chichkin
Dossier RG.
History of world crises
First World War economic crisis 1857-1859 began with the United States, then shifted to Europe. Causes are mass bankruptcy of railway companies and the collapse of the stock market.
The crisis of 1873-1876 began with Austria-Hungary and Germany. The prerequisite was a credit lift in Latin America, fed from England, and speculative rise in the real estate market in Germany and Austria-Hungary. In the US, banking panic began after a strong fall of shares at the New York Stock Exchange and the Bankruptcy of the Chief Financier and President of the United Pacific railway Jay Cook.
In 1914, the crisis began due to the beginning of the war. The main reason is the urgent total sale of foreign issuing papers by US governments, Great Britain, France and Germany to finance hostilities.
The fourth world crisis (1920-1923) is associated with post-war deflation (increase purchasing power national currency) and recession (decline in production). It began with banking and currency crises first in Denmark, then in Norway, Italy, Finland, Holland, USA and Great Britain.
1929-1933 - "Great Depression", which extended to most of the worlds of the world
The sixth crisis began in 1957 and lasted until the mid-1958. He covered the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and many other berthes. It was due to overproduction, collapse of the colonial system, the rise in price of oil (due to the joint aggression of Israel, Great Britain and France against Egypt in the fall of 1956).
The crisis of 1973-1975 began with the United States, it is primarily associated with the "oil embargo" in relation to the West from the majority of large oil exporters in the fall of 1973.
Black Monday: October 19, 1987 The American stock index Dow Jones Industrial collapsed by 22.6 percent, after the American markets of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea, and many Latin American countries collapsed. It was associated with the outflow of investors from those markets after a strong reduction in the capitalization of several largest transnational and regional companies.
1997 - the East Asian crisis, the most large-scale fall of the Asian stock market after World War II. It originated primarily due to the care of foreign investors from most countries of Southeast Asia and from many Far Eastern "industrial dragons". Reduced world GDP by 2 trillion dollars.
1998 - Russian crisis, one of the most severe in the history of Russia. Causes: Growing public debt, low world prices for raw materials, especially the energy, and Pyramid of GKO, for which the Government of the Russian Federation could not pay on time.
Mikhail Khazin, President of Neokon (according to expert counseling), predicted the global economic crisis for another a few years before its occurrence. According to Khazin, we all live during the transition from one economy model to another. Moreover, such a transition concerns the whole world.
The leading position in this economic situation is occupied by Mikhail Khazin, those who play without complying with the rules of the game. As an example, the economist leads to Russia in relation to the Crimea. Hazin also argues that the events that occur today in Ukraine are the result of global political processes.
Mikhail Khazin notes that today you can observe the destruction of the economic system, which was formed first in the West, and then since 1991 spread throughout the world. This system, involving the economic domination of the United States, has given great importance to the main currency - the dollar. So, redistributing finances around the world, the United States supported world order, providing some states with large funds, and some are smaller.
In addition, it was America that supported certain layers of elite and political regimes. However, when the crisis came (2008), an acute shortage of finance began to be felt. The standard of living began to worse rapidly, which caused the indignation of American vassals. Some of them wanted to even arrange a revolution against America's policies. Of course, the US authorities experienced the need to change the current system. However, America could no longer change their independently. In view of this, the goal was to weaken the main world currency. Mikhail Khazin emphasizes that such a depreciation assumed a sharp increase in the course when the crisis covers world economy. It was about three currencies:
- american dollar;
- euro;
- cNY.
Khazin argues that Ukraine fell to the hostage of the United States due to strategic interests, since it is located between the two main dollar competitors.
Mikhail very simply explains why the world's established economic order is destroyed, and many countries are experiencing a crisis. Any economic systemAccording to him, it is guided by the same principle: the production of the product involves its sale. At the same time, the more difficult the system is structured, the harder sales are given, and many manufacturers have a risk, creating any products.
To reduce the level of risks, you need to increase demand. America uses this mechanism since the 1980s, imposing such a principle and other states. To support the manufacturer's activity, consumers began to issue loans. This, in turn, led to the fact that the incomes of the inhabitants were less than their expenses for twenty or twenty-five percent on average.
Khazin notes that for the first time such a system has failed in 2008, when the crisis occurred due to the further inability to increase the number of consumers (at some point it became impossible physically). But, as Mikhail Khazin says, that crisis of seven years ago faded the financial bubble only on a small part. In the near future, the world expects a much greater scale crisis, since today the American stock market is almost completely torn off from the real indicators of the level of the economy of companies. The growth of the stock market occurs on the background of the economy no longer developing on.
Khazin notes that the crisis of our time forces Europe to look for new ways in order to stabilize the economic situation. At the same time all participants merchant market They seek to go into assets that are most protected from the impact that the economic global crisis has. The degree of protection always depends on the level of liquidity.
So, the liquid category itself is the dollar. Because of this, during economic instability and stagnation, the dollar increases sharply. Some people manage to extract financial benefits. Possessing a liquid asset, such as gold or real estate, it turns out that during the crisis it is very expensive. However, to sell such an asset is practically unrealistic.
World crisis in Russia
As for the evaluation of the crisis phenomenon in the Russian economy of 2015, Mikhail Khazin declares that the crisis in the Russian Federation will continue if the country will continue to continue the policy similar to the one that the government leads now. In addition, the crisis will develop and grow due to the devaluation of the Russian national currency. Yes, a similar situation with the ruble provided subsequent economic growth in the country in 2008, but today the situation is completely different.
The devaluation today cannot give positive results, as there is no investment resource. Khazin declares that the situation in the country may change if you change economic policies states. The potential of economic growth of the Russian Federation ranges from five to eight percent for ten or fifteen years.
Situation in Europe
Regarding how the exchange rate change will affect Europe countries, Mikhail gives a double answer. According to him, the fact that the Baltic countries entered the euro zone is a mistaken effect. At the same time, the devaluation of the national currency in the country does not always have negative consequences. For example, during the crisis of seven years ago, the devaluation of zlotod occurred in Poland, however, the state could survive the crisis without falling GDP.
This, by the way, is the only country in the European Union, which was able to prevent falling. At the same time, the Baltic countries could survive at any time due to the help of the European Union. The size of this aid today has decreased significantly, so Khazin sees the future of Tallinn, Daugavpils, Klaipeda is rather gloomy. In addition, the Russophobia of the local authorities led to the fact that the Russian Federation began to close the transit paths, which before that also helped the Baltic countries to survive.
In general, regarding the fate of the European Union, Mikhail implies two ways to development. Since the European Union includes Western and Eastern Europe, and the Eastern was adopted in an alliance due to an excess of cash resources of the 90s, there are two options for action. The first option is that Western European states should worsen their standard of living, bringing their own economic position as a sacrificing for the sake of salvation of Eastern Europe. The second way to overcome the global crisis is to maintain the Western Europe of its population at the expense of the population of Eastern Europe. Since the answer is obvious, the economic situation in Eastern European countries will deteriorate much more than in Western European countries.
Alexander Miskov
First you need to fall. However, no one wants to fall and talk about it. But then how to develop a new model economic Development? Moreover, the old liberal model and financial capitalism have exhausted themselves, the well-known scientist considers the President of the Neokon expert counseling company Mikhail Khazin.
Mikhail Khazin.
- I recently got into the hands of the book "1968". The round anniversary of the events that took place in the Eurozone and the USA, the world noted, but, in my opinion, there were no serious research on what was still 40 years ago. But it was about changing the socio-economic paradigm. The Western world shook a serious crisis, not inferior to the scale and depth of the current, - when, according to the centered centers of Nicolas Sarkozy, the former President of France, the system was formed, "where everything is given to financial capital and almost nothing peace of work." True, then the founding of the crisis was a socio-psychological order, people sought "self-effectiveness", high quality of life. Now the foundations of the new crisis are economic, the existence of a financial and monetary system, which was created in Bretton Woods at the end of World War II ...
- In my opinion, parallel needs to be done with another time. But first things first.
From the point of view of the functioning of the current economic model, the current crisis is understandable, it has clear outlines. Over the past 30 years, first in the United States, and then all over the world operated a system to stimulate demand, which allowed the Western economy to develop an extended manner. It was built on the principle of increasing demand at the expense of debt growth. Households, corporations occupied and spent funds. States did the same by increasing social spending. This model reduced the cumulative demand, because it was not only busy returned, but also interest.
Permanent debt refinancing occurred. But such a system can only exist if the cost of a new loan is less than the old one. This model acted as long as the lender of the last instance in the world - the US Federal Reserve system reduced the rates. In 1980 it was 19%. But by the end of 2008, in December, the Fed Account was equal to zero. All, the model has exhausted itself, the crisis began.
- But the crisis phenomena appeared even earlier - in the early 2000s ...
- You understand: When you have a debt refinancing, financial "bubbles" are inevitably inflated, sometimes they burst. This is, first. In addition, it should be understood that the rate on a real loan stopped even earlier, that is, refinancing was impossible somewhere in 2005-2006. Then followed the gap. Today, farms in the West are more than their income. Call different numbers. According to our estimates, this gap is approximately 25% of GDP. This means that in the modern west, people spend more than they earn.
With the current situation, the consumption level will fall. World GDP will fall. It will decrease more than 25%, because in the fall of demand and income falls. Today there are two options for changing the state of affairs. The first: to maintain demand at any cost. This path goes the United States of America. They increase the budget deficit, using the fact that they had less them than in Italy and Greece. President Obama increased the budget deficit for one trillion dollars per year. All this money goes to support social programs.
- What does he count when the money is running out?
- As I understand it, for Obama, the key point is the election. As soon as he wins them or lose, the crisis will acquire new outlines. The United States calls on Europe to tighten the belt to Europe, but at the same time Greece is issued, Spain - to refinance their debts. The main problem is that if you stop them today, it collapses financial system. Why? Because these debts are not someone, but banks. Therefore, mass bankruptcy will begin. Of course, some money can be given to banks, but there is another problem here. In conditions of irregular growth, the cost of insurance of financial risks is changing: it increases sharply. And bankruptcy is happening on another line. That is, actually keep the global financial system in a more or less stable state in the next 3-5 years will not work. The question of when it "sprinkles" is not an economic character, but political.
- When will the "hour x" comes?
- It will depend on behavior different countries. Mrs. Merkel said, for example, that while she is alive, Germany will not pay debts of Spain and Italy. These debts could pay other states. But the problem is that in Europe it is impossible to pay for something, if Germany does not pay. You can't collect money in some family for hungry children, explaining that their mother rests on the Canary Islands.
Chicago. November 16, 1930.
Such is the global model. Therefore, the crisis caused by the fall in the total demand associated with the inability to refinance the debts will continue. It began in 2008. But then he was "lined with liquidity", and the crisis became slower by analogy with the beginning of the 1930s in the United States. There he lasted a little less than three years, from the spring of 1930 to the end of the 1932th. The downtose paces were about 1% of GDP per month, and the "Great Depression" ended. What is the crisis this time? We have not finished moving down the trajectory of the recession, we passed somewhere 10-12% of this path (in the world). Not more. And we still fall and fall.
- But if these trends apply to Russia, then you have to cut the budget, reduce some programs ....
- Applied to Russia we are worried, first of all, oil prices. In the period of high emission prices are always growing faster. The last major emission was February 29, when the European Central Bank printed half a trillion euro. This gave an approximately three-month impulse to the increase in oil prices, and in May they went down. If neither the US nor Europe will start printing money, the price of oil can drop to 60-70 dollars per barrel, and then, of course, we will have a complete "ah" with the budget.
Option is the second - if the money will be printed, the price of oil jumpers, but not as much as we would like. But at the same time inflationary processes will begin in the world. And since russian economy imported, the country will be very high consumer inflation. She is so rather big.
As you can see, perspectives with the economy, taking into account world trends in our country, not rainbow. Perhaps due to inflation, it will be necessary to somehow compensate for the social spending that cannot be cut. That is, it is possible that the budget will appear.
- We only freely sighed: repaired public debt ...
- I would not have become unnecessarily rejoice at this. After all, actually state debts we transferred corporate debts. And what's the point? Previously, the state was a debtor, now - Gazprom. Are you ready to bankrupt Gazprom? Me not...
- at the current growth rate (some economists speak about the "inertial path of development") we catch up the developed countries In the coming years, and even decades will not work, because they will not stand still in place. Therefore, they started talking about the need for "technological roaring". Note: "National projects" also preceded the discussion ...
- National projects have an attempt to compensate for the previous omissions of the government in the 90s, to patch the hole that was formed in the economy as a result of the "brilliant" policy of the followers of Gaidar, which practically did not invest in the industry of the national economy. As for the "technological jerk". To start it, you need to really imagine what our goal and in what world we live in.
We have been writing about the crisis of work and articles for 10 years. More and more becomes obvious that we are right that the economic models and processes that describe, have a place, but did you hear that our developments voiced by those who make decisions? I was invited to speak in Kazakhstan at the Economic Forum and Uzbekistan - at a public economic event. But in Russia, all reasoning on the topic of crisis is not welcome. We proceed from the logic that it will not be. A full monopoly on truth has a liberal economic school in which there are no words to describe this crisis; She can't admit that there was something wrong with something that does not understand something. These gentlemen simply ignore many real processes occurring in the economy.
- Academician of Glazyev, developing his theory of technological instructions, notes that the fifth way, we can say, slept, took advantage of copies. But there would be no happiness, but misfortune helped. "In backward countries, as a rule, there are no significant production facilities of an obsolete technological structure and the resistance of socio-economic institutions to their destruction is relatively small, which ... facilitates the creation of production and technical systems of the new technological direction," the scientist writes. He suggests that we have more opportunities to master the new, sixth technological way. And calls such "points of growth" as nanotechnology, molecular biology. And other economists say: they say, not only "points of growth" to create, but all the national economy is to develop as a holistic organism ...
- Anyway, without the "point of growth", economic development does not work, the question is only one or a hundred of them. It is clear that one point to move is easier. But it's not that. The whole theory of "growth points" works in a situation of a common economic lift. We have now entered into a long-term recession lane when innovations do not pay off. For this reason, the financing of innovative processes is fraught ... They independently survive. This is a big problem, and I don't know how to solve it. I do not exclude that we (the whole world) is waiting for quite serious technological degradation. Approximately the same as in Russia in the 90s.
- In times, when there was a "great depression" in the West, we scared everything that was possible, but thanks to the acquired technique abroad or on the basis of it, the technique was conducted by industrialization ...
- What did Stalin make in the 1930s? In fact, he decided that the task that Stolypin put. Then, at the beginning of the 20th century, economic progress was associated primarily with mechanical engineering. But for his uninterrupted work it was necessary that someone bought the products of this industry. Peasant-scenario Buy tractor could not. It was under power wealthy, rich peasants. That is why Stolypin wanted to form major farms on the basis of fists. And as a result, predetermined the subsequent civil war in the village. His program ended with collapse. And Stalin did otherwise: he created collective farms. There was a superstructure that became a consumer of engineering products. And this program ended with success.
- Probably you want to say that in relation to modern conditions Now another situation ...
- Completely right. In the 1930s, innovation was mechanical engineering, and today - nanotechnology. But how do you make a person who has no money to buy a bunch for a child, to acquire some nanotechnology product? That's the whole problem. Innovation will never go to the falling market.
The Americans at the beginning of the 80s introduced the demand to stimulate the demand only because they had a crisis in the 70s, and they could not launch a new innovative wave during these years. That is, what we call information technology today. But when they began to stimulate demand, they used this wave - destroyed the USSR and won. But the trouble is that today this tool for stimulating demand has already been exhausted.
"Why are you so sure that the economic fall does not stop and the global crisis will last until the entire trajectory goes? Is humanity so powerless that it cannot master the rational forms of labor organization?
- We have few people pay that there are two economic sciences in the world. One is called Political Economy, she invented Adam Smith at the end of the XVIII century. Then, Karl Marx developed very actively, after which she acquired pronounced Marxist features. And the West as an ideological alternative decided to come up with another economic science called "Economics". So, in those places where political economics says "yes", "economics" says "no", and vice versa. Political economy believes that capitalism is finite, for this reason "Economics" says: capitalism is infinite. And in principle, it does not consider the concepts from which the limb of capitalism follows.
But the end of capitalism did not come up with Marx, but, oddly enough, the same Adam Smith. This social system appeared in the XVI-XVII centuries. Contemporaries, watching the economy, drew attention to the fact that development during capitalism is the deepening of the division of labor. And then Smith took the next step: he explained that if there is a closed system, then in it it can not rise above the definite "strip". Any economic system at some point comes to such a level of division of labor, which for further development she needs to expand. Hence the conclusion: when the markets become global, capitalist development will stop. For Smith and even for Marx it was an abstraction, but we live with you today in the world in which the global markets rule the ball. Therefore, innovations cannot pay off for economic reasons. Because for their payback, it is necessary to expand the markets, and this does not work.
- There are two options for the development of post-industrial society - favorable and unfavorable. You, I understand, tend to the second of them ...
- No, my opinion is that the post-industrial society does not exist at all. I will explain what's the matter. Imagine that you had a plant on which all people worked together. Then he was divided into workshops, which are at a great distance among themselves, and as a result, the plant management decided that it was built a separate industrial area - post-industrial society. But it only exists due to the availability of workshops. Therefore, as soon as in those shops, the crisis, all the so-called "post-industrial society" is crumbling ... These are fairy tales, which are composed, to rearly justify the extensions of the highest quintyl groups.
- You are all talking about the economy all the time. However, according to some scientists, the unenmepture of our society in matters of morality, its unpreparedness to harsh socio-psychological changes led to depopulation in the 90s and the other negative consequences. Some even believe that sociologists, psychologists and teachers than economists and lawyers should be managed by society.
"I'm not a sociologist, I am engaged in economics and talking about what I am answering." For me, one thing is obvious: our society does not perceive the liberal ideology with its complete absence of morality. Either the existing system will collapse, or the society itself will be destroyed. One out of two.
- But after all, "knowledge economy", "Development Economics" opens up new perspectives, the possibilities of improving it, reform ...
- Maybe, but when they start to destroy, then not to knowledge and not before education. I want to eat. When there is nothing to eat, people begins to be nervous.
- As one German writer said: "Rich conversations about bread seem lowland. This is because they have already filed. "
- Like that.
- It turns out, we now approached this stage of development, when some primary needs that seemed to be already overcome, and the Company solved the issues of spiritual development, self-improvement, "self-effectiveness", quality of life, etc., again become dominant.
- Yes, that's right.
- How to solve them?
- Within the framework of modern financial capitalism it is impossible to solve them.
- But really the world public thought is not working on various options for humane development?
- All Western theories are built as part of a liberal ideology (economics - only part of it), and it is forbidden to talk about the end of capitalism.
- But the list of different directions is not limited. There are thinkers whose works are social hue. John Galbreit, for example.
- Galbreyt died quite recently, his work is 1950-1960s. He was, of course, a brilliant economist, and today the ideological "mainstream" is not very welcomed. American Joseph Stiglitz, degraded from the World Bank Hehetik, is also trying to do something, proving that he is an honest person, which has not been sold for money. For it is constantly exposed to moral and ideological press.
Yes, there are people who are trying to get out of the bog. So we are trying too. But in order to do something, you need to look at life soberly. The main question today is: what will the model of economic development be, and how much we fall as a result of this crisis. You see, talk about development until we fell, meaningless.
- And how to climb and find strength for further development ...
- This model is needed. But first you need to fall. And no one wants to fall. No one wants to say about it out loud. Modern politician cannot utter: we will live worse tomorrow than today. It's impossible. He must say: No, we will live better.
- Now among religious figures, probably less pessimists than among economists. Predicting the end of the world ...
- Do not confuse the end of the world and crisis.
- The crisis from which we will still get out.
- Of course, we will choose.
