Derivatives are traded on the derivatives market financial instruments- futures and options contracts for a whole list of groups of underlying assets, such as stocks, bonds, indices, currencies and commodities. Stock market instruments are perceived by many traders as assets for investment, and futures instruments are associated with various kinds of speculative transactions. Traditionally, such speculative strategies as intraday are implemented precisely on, and there are a number of explanations for this.
Prerequisites for speculation in the FORTS market
Trading volumes on the derivatives market often exceed volumes on the stock market, as well as the number of transactions with the most liquid futures contracts in comparison with the most liquid shares. Moreover, a very large proportion of transactions with futures contracts, and especially with futures, are opened and closed within one trading session, which is an indicator of the speculative nature of these transactions.
Already by the word "urgent" in the name of the market, it is clear that contracts on it have time limits - the date of circulation start and the date of execution (expiration). Accordingly, any transaction made with urgent contacts is a priori limited in time. The stock market is focused on a long-term investor. Long term stock market grows and shares can be held for an arbitrarily long time and even be inherited.
In the derivatives market, there is no need to pay the entire cost of the contract to make a deal, it is enough to deposit a guarantee, usually 10% of the amount, which provides the effect of the tenth maximum leverage. This makes it possible, subject to the rules of risk management, to earn much more per unit of investment in the derivatives market than in the stock market. (further this amount may change), that with a contract value of 58,125 rubles. allows you to buy 16 contacts for the cost of one contract.
Since when opening a short on a futures, the seller makes a guarantee, assuming the obligations of the asset supplier in a pending transaction, he does not take anything from anyone with the obligation to return, unlike the stock market, where the seller takes the necessary number of shares from the broker to make a short for a short sale. Therefore, there is no such concept of margin trading in the derivatives market, and making short sales even with a position rolled over overnight is free. Considering that it is not necessary to make a deal with a futures with the nearest contract (it is also possible with later expiration dates), short deals can be made for a period much longer than one quarter.
Commissions on the derivatives market are much lower than on the stock market, and the exchange itself does not charge a commission for exiting a transaction, the opening and closing of which took place within one trading day on the derivatives market (from 19:00 one day to 19:00 the next day). Thus, the exchange commission for registering a transaction with a US dollar futures contract is 0.81 rubles, or 0.0013% of the contract value (58,125 rubles).
It should be noted that term contracts (for stocks and bonds) do not pay dividends or coupons, which makes their long-term retention less appropriate.
In total, all these prerequisites allowed speculators to actively earn on the futures market.
Speculative strategies in the derivatives market
The main speculation strategies in the futures market include scalping, intraday and swing trading.
Scalping is a type of trading in which a trader makes a large number of transactions with a traded instrument within a session (10-100 transactions per day) in order to fix a relatively low profit on intraday price fluctuations. Traditionally, scalpers in their trading use charts of the price and volume of the traded instrument, correlated assets, as well as a tape of deals and a glass of quotations. The purpose of scalping is precisely catching the price impulse, for which scalpers track these instruments to identify it. It is worth noting that scalping can seem simple method, however, is the pinnacle of trader skill.
Intraday trading is a trading method that aims to capture intraday trends in traded assets without moving positions overnight. Unlike traditional scalpers, which do not technical analysis charts, do not follow market news and published statistics, intraday traders conduct these studies. In intraday trading, on average, 5-20 deals are made per trading day, which is less than in scalping, which is due to the longer holding period of the intraday trend compared to the scene momentum. Now the border between intraday and scalping is blurring.
Swing trading differs from intraday and scalping in that it moves overnight when the market conditions are favorable. Rolling over is theoretically a profitable move, as open candles are often large compared to intraday candles. But being in a trade at the time of opening also implies increased risk, since the price can also change in the direction against an open transaction, which makes necessary careful analysis of the feasibility of such a transfer of position.
Well, speaking of speculation, one cannot fail to note conservative positional trading, which involves holding a position from several days to several weeks in order to profit from the formation of a certain price trend. Positional trading is present on both securities(shares) and on futures, but on futures, the profit from it is maximized using the leverage effect. IN position trading a large role is given to technical research and the news background.
Output
The purpose of speculation on the futures FORTS market is to profit from both intraday and longer transactions. The prerequisites for such speculation are the factors that have been discussed in this article. Otkritie Broker will always help you to learn the intricacies of speculative trading and start making money on the stock exchange.
In most cases, I appear to my readers as a medium-term investor. But most of my trading practice is devoted to fairly tough speculation on rules intraday trading . Over the years and the growth of the portfolio in absolute terms, the size of its speculative part has decreased. Now about 90% of the funds are allocated for investments in Russian and foreign shares, and the rest for speculation in the Russian derivatives market.
Universal rules for intraday trading
I am often asked why I trade in the futures market? At one point, I just felt more comfortable that way. If I had to make a decision where to trade speculatively at the current moment, I don’t even know what I would choose, since now there are opportunities to take loans for shares more than for some, and not worry that expiration will interfere with plans. Sometimes I think, maybe I should shake the old days on the "drain"? But for now I will refrain, since I have not yet studied everything in the futures market, and I don’t want to spray myself.
However, my day trading strategy for the futures market is celebrating its 5th anniversary in November this year. Already now the results are not bad, I do not like to announce them as official, as there were big breaks in the trading of futures contracts. But, nevertheless, if these gaps are not thrown out of the statistics, then the yield will rise to 120% per annum with a maximum of up to 40%.
Very often, when working on the derivatives market, I do not go out with a deal for more than one day. I think even if you have not appreciated the results of my practice, I understand that they are modest for the market I have chosen, then my rules for intraday trading on the derivatives market will be useful to you, since they can be adapted to any time interval and to any exchange instruments.
So, let's take it in order.
When do I go beyond one trading day?
- When I trade intraday, I trade against the main trend.
- When profit between and resistance is too small to pull a trade for a week or more (less than 2-2.5%).
What do I trade intraday?
- Futures: Gazprom, Sberbank, RTS, Si.
But, as I said, the rules of intraday trading below will be universal after some adaptation.
How do I trade intraday?
According to the classics. The advantage of this method is that at any time, when I would not have opened the terminal, I can see the idea and not be tied to the monitor.
The disadvantage, especially for beginners, is that it will be difficult to deal with the subjective component of this method. Experience is needed here!
Working cuts for intraday trading?
Most often it is 1 hour, sometimes 15 minutes - for. And God forbid you trade on 5-minutes if you do not have a robot or at least a trading advisor that automatically generates signals.
15 simple rules for intraday trading
- Check the trend on the underlying asset.
- Check the main on the glued futures.
- Do not trade a week before and after expiration.
- One day for analysis (which is why I don't trade on Fridays speculatively). You can take the weekend as this day!
- Do not open trades with a yield of less than 1%.
- Win back all trend signals, Fibo, horizontal lines, figures that I see.
- If passed, then the next trade after the filter 1 hour.
- If the second time the "stop" is taken out - the filter is 2 hours.
- After the third losing trade, I stop trading until the next session.
- I do not open trades where the risk on income is less than 1 to 2.
- After a losing trade, the risk for income is 1 to 3.
- At the same time, no more than 2 names of futures are in operation.
- If the underlying asset (shares) of Sberbank or Gazprom can provide up to 8% net profit potential and there is a similar signal on the futures, the deal is considered a priority. Opens for the day with maximum leverage.
- Indicators are only important when the contract has traded as the main month. The "Three Great Signals" of the indicators can be used to work on the whole shoulder. What are these "Great Ones"? This is my personal secret, which I share only with clients on consulting support.
- Close the deal in the main session before 18.30 Moscow time. (I’ll clarify here! The terminal allows me to close a deal at any time, even if I’m not at the monitor. But I prefer to close the deal myself. Therefore, if I eject from work today at 18.00 Moscow time, I will close the deal 15 minutes before that). Well, throw stones at me for being unresponsive, that I do not follow the close of trading? From experience, discoveries are more important, I try not to miss them.
Good afternoon everyone.
Today I will analyze the trading strategy for the Forts market, which was sent to me by one of the subscribers. According to the author, the system is profitable. In general, we will understand and analyze. By the way, I want to note that anyone can send their system to me for analysis. Naturally, who cares and who is ready to burn their grail 🙂 So, for starters, I'll lay out the strategy in the form in which it was sent to me. And then I will express my thoughts on it.
Trading strategy for futures (Forts)
Working day (according to Moscow time)
Before the market opens
- viewS& P500, DAX, oil, closing Asia and analyze the world background in the morning;
- analyze and fix the release time of the world's main stud data and news;
- view charts of traded instruments on 1D, 1 Hand 5min;
- make a selection of trending instruments and apply the main levels to 5minchart, to identify the intraday range of issuers;
10-00 to 10-30 - I do not trade, I watch the opening of the market;
10-30 to 18-30 - trading time;
19-00 to 19-30 — summing up the work day.
- screenshots of all transactions;
- work on bugs;
Entrance system
(entry only by limit order)
Trend Entry:
Entry against the trend:
STOP LOSS:
- place simultaneously with a limit order to enter a trade;
- stop is calculated from the ratio of risk to profit of at least 1 to 3;
- stop should be no more than 0.1-0.2% of the value of the traded instrument;
- depending on the direction of the transaction, it is best to place a long or short stop below/above the previous level;
- below/above the breakdown tail;
- below/above the round number;
- the maximum risk per day (for all trades in all traded instruments) is 3% of the deposit.
Stop calculation for traded issuers:
- futures RTS 150-300 points;
- futures on a share of Sberbank 30 points;
- futures for a share of Gazprom 30-50 points;
- futures for a pair of $ / ruble 20-50 points
Output:
- it is better to do 2, 3 parts;
- by support and resistance levels;
- in terms of risk to profit ratio of at least 1 to 3;
- by stop loss, in case the deal went not in my direction.
Necessary conditions for a long
1.Dnevka for the past day closed in positive territory;
2. There is upside potential on the daily chart;
3. The price at the moment is higher than the opening price of today;
4. S& P500, DAX, oil in the green zone (or at least 2 out of 3);
5.Have a level of support;
6. There is no round number ahead;
8.Mirror level;
9. The issuer does not roll back;
10. Sunset according to models;
Prerequisites for a short
1.Dnevka closed in the red last day;
2. There is a downside potential on the daily chart;
3. The price at the moment is lower than the opening price of today;
4.S& P500, DAX, oil in the red zone (or at least 2 out of 3);
5. There is a level of resistance;
6. There is no round number ahead;
7.False breakdown enhances the level;
8.Mirror level;
9. The issuer does not roll back;
10. Sunset according to models.
Analysis of a trading strategy for MMVB
Before the market opens
The system begins with a description of what needs to be done before the market opens. Of course, you need to do everything that is described, and this is very important information, but it is absolutely incomprehensible how to take it into account in our trading. For example, analyze the world background. Let's analyze it. What's next? Some description is needed here. For example, if the world background is negative, then we do not trade, or we trade less. Or another option of your choice. The same goes for news. Here it is necessary to describe everything in more detail. How we analyze the news in our trading. Trade or not before the release of the news. We leave the position on the news or cut. What news are we paying attention to? I personally cut positions 5 minutes before the release of important news. If this news can somehow affect the instrument I trade.
Further everything is fine. We look at charts and select trending tools and apply levels. Then comes . Here I want to leave my comment on the trading time. From 10.30 to 18.30 In principle, if, based on statistical data, this is a favorable time for trading on this system, then it is very good. But personally, I do not trade from 13.00 to 15.00. Usually the market is less active at this time. Because it's lunch time. But if I had an open position before this time, then I do not close it. If there were no positions open, then at this time I rest. And in any case, sitting at the monitor without interruption is quite difficult, because you need to take a break someday.
Parsing the input system
Next, regarding the entry system. Before that, I want to note right away that there is only a general description of the input system. There is no level description. Yes, and the formalization of inputs is quite low. In what cases to look for these models, at what levels, on what timeframes? There are a lot of questions. And the answers are probably only known to the author.
First of all, I want to note what I mean by the formalization of the levels that we trade. For example, the highs/lows of the month/year that we are looking for on the hourly timeframe, which must be confirmed by at least two or more bars on this timeframe, and so on. Or a level that is high/low for the last 5 days, which was traded by 8 bars on an hourly clock with at least 4 touches. One touch is trading and moving away from the level for at least 1 hour, then re-trading. That's how it is necessary to describe the levels.
Now as for the first entry point on the trend. Without additional data, it is impossible to test this information and say whether these patterns are profitable. The entry model itself is described normally. But how do we look for it, at what levels, timeframes, etc.? Again, there is no description for this. Although you can describe everything yourself and formalize it in more detail. For example, with regard to the first model (Fig. 1). I would formalize as follows. We are looking for an air level after the breakdown, we need a key level (description of the level). The breakdown should occur on higher volumes (the volume of the breakout bar is 30% higher). Then, if the main level has not been retested, you can wait for the air level to form. The base at the air level should be as clear as possible, with a minimum spread of shadow tails and without false breakouts. And then we are already looking for the model we need. It's like one of the options. In fact, there can be many more options and the description can be made even more detailed.
Now for models 2 and 3. Here we also need to do more detailed description the level that met earlier and the mirror level. Although, again, if the author knows what to look for and there is a description of all this in his head, then it is very good. But any other trader without the appropriate baggage of knowledge will not be able to trade on the system in the form in which it is presented. Too vague and simple description. For each model, you can add from 5 or more description items. Now 4 models with a false breakdown. Here, as I understand it, a false breakdown is meant precisely with a shadow puncture? The description of the false breakout can be made more detailed. Personally, I redraw the level when there are more than 2 false breakouts, or 1 false breakout with more than 3 bars above the level. This is for m5 timeframe.
Then come the countertrend entry points. With such a description, these models will not be able to be traded at all. After all, if you look for them on a 5-minute timeframe, then there will be a lot of stops. Therefore, everyone who will trade on this system should formalize everything in more detail and test it. Since if it is wrong to trade the countertrend, then there will be many times more stops than for trading with the trend.
Since I am also a countertrend trader, I would add the following description to this pattern. Especially to the last point where it is written about the fall and 5 stops. At this point, it seems to me, the point is to catch the instrument that has exceeded ATR .
So, I would add the following. Search only for those instruments that are either flat, or the instrument moved in the opposite direction from the main movement and exceeded the ATR by more than 110%. You can add what percentage of the movement exceeded the instrument (more than 3.5% is better). If the instrument, in addition to everything, rested on a strong level or a large density in a glass, then this is an additional entry signal. Then already look for the model we need. But in general, there can be much more options for entering the countertrend.
Analysis of setting a stop loss
Everything is clear here, but again, you can formalize everything in more detail. I also have a question regarding the stop mustbe no more than 0.1-0.2% of the value of the traded instrument”. In some cases, this percentage may be either too low or too high for a stop loss. Therefore, in any case, the necessary manual adjustment.
The maximum risk per day is also written here. Why there are no risks per trade, a week and a month is a mystery to me. These risks must be spelled out. And now about stops in points. The size of the stop may vary depending on the volatility and in some cases clearly will not fall within these limits. For example, with regard to the dollar / ruble pair. With high volatility, the stop may well reach 100 points.
Analysis of conditions for exit, long and short
With the description of the conditions for the exit more or less everything is in order. Although I would like to add a couple of points. And he described in more detail how the exit is carried out in parts.
Now as for the conditions for long and short. In general, a good description, but again, everything can be painted in more detail. Also a note about point 4. Quite often, there is practically no correlation between the above instruments and Russian futures. In general, a dubious point. There are also items that clearly do not apply to the conditions. These are more of a comment. However, I had some questions. For example, a false break enhances the level. Let's say. And what does it give us? How this applies to our system is not written here. By the way, I would note that not always a false breakdown will strengthen the level. When there are a lot of false breakouts, it is better to redraw the level according to new highs/lows, otherwise you can get into the saw. You also need to take into account the fact that a false breakdown removes stops. Therefore, the breakdown of the level may not be on such a strong impulse. For example, when I trade in a glass, in some cases I look for the most clear levels without false breakouts, so that the momentum is as strong as possible. In general, this topic is quite large, in my next articles I will definitely return to the topic of false breakouts. Below is an example of a deal for Rosseti.
Conclusion
Let me summarize. The system is obviously not perfect. Formalization at a fairly low level. But in general, everything else is described very well. Therefore, who will trade on it, try to describe everything in more detail, test it and then put it into practice. I hope that everyone will highlight something useful from this analysis. Subscribe to the news of the site and to the VK group. Good luck with your transactions. Bye.
Sincerely, Stanislav Stanishevsky.
"What do I risk and what can I earn"- the first thought that should arise before the decision to make a deal in the market. We cannot be 100% sure that it will go in the direction we need, and therefore, only by learning to "cut" negative transactions and "hatch" profitable ones, you can bring your trading system into a stable plus. On the example of the main futures traded by me Russian market, I I will tell in this article what and for the sake of what profit it is worth risking. First, calculate the daily potential for a trade. It is not at all difficult to do this, knowing the ATR of traded instruments. RTS on average per day from high before low 2500 points go, but this figure is approximate for the current period, it can naturally change. You can build on the last two weeks. Accordingly, having earned 50% -70% of the daily price movement in the transaction, it will come out just great! 50% is 1250 points. When making intraday transactions on small timeframes, it is enough to put a stop of 250-300 points, respectively, the risk to profit is even more than 1 to 4. But I still calculate the option here if I just take 1 to 3 (300 stops or 900 take) 20 trading days per month for 3 trades = 60 trades For example, let's consider 40 trades (66%), exit by stop - 300 points and 20 trades (34%) positive with a take profit of 900 points 300 * 40 = 12000 p. 900 *20=18000 p. Accordingly, even if 2/3 of the trades are on the stop, anyway, by the end of the month, you will be with a plus of 6000 p. The second example, even more pessimistic, 45 trades (75%) on the stop and only 15 trades (25%) by take!!! 300 * 45 = 13500 p. 900 * 15 = 13500 p. Even with 75% of negative transactions, the deposit will remain approximately zero, slightly less due to slippage on the stop and commissions of the broker and the exchange. By increasing the take to 1000 p., the system will go to zero even in such a bad scenario. This immediately begs the question for all of you, so why do 97% of traders drain their deposits??? Yes, because the majority does not comply with this very risk management. Do not put feet. Or the risk is very high for a deal, or they simply do not hatch a decent one !!! For tools like GAZR, SBRF, Si, the optimal stop for intraday trading will be 20-25 points, take 60-100 points (here you need to look separately from the potential of the transaction on the chart) All the given examples are based on takes, starting from the minimum, that is, with smaller goals, it’s not worth trading. In points, risk and profit can naturally be changed, depending on your trading system, but it is important that the advantage of 1 to 3 or more still remain with you. In real trading, sometimes the risk to profit can reach 1 to 20 or more, but this is on shock days. It is these days that make it possible to bring the trading month into a good plus! The risk per trade is now clear, but the risk per deposit as a whole for the day is shown below in the example of calculating a deposit of 100,000 rubles. This table also describes the number of contracts and how much money is needed to carry out one or another transaction, without going beyond the daily risk and the ability to carry out three transactions simultaneously for different instruments. The optimal risk of loss per one trading session for such a depot, I think, is 2000 rubles. The larger the deposit, the more carefully they will need to work and reduce the risk per day. The most difficult thing is the mathematical calculation of the trading system and risks, and their disciplined observance. Follow the risk management and let the profit come to you!!!
1. Traded instruments (trading algorithm):
one . Si stop - 0.2% of the price (at a price of 50,000 - about 100 points).
2. RTS stop -0.2% of the price (at a price of 100,000 - about 200 points).
Additionally, watch: SI and RTS correlation with each other, Sberbank and Gazprom futures (their direction and levels) to confirm signals.
Trading is conducted from 11:00 to 18:45.
I do not trade the first hour and the evening session.
Trading algorithm on FORTS:
2. Key points.
In the morning, before the opening of trading, I look at the D1 charts of the traded instruments:
1. General global trend last month- two.
2. The nearest strong support/resistance levels (nearest price extremes) I draw levels on them. I look to see if they have met before in history, if so, this further enhances these levels. These levels form my trading channel.
3. I watch how the price behaves inside the channel, from what level it has bounced off and where is going: what candles were in the last 2-3 days, is there a power reserve to the next level, are there false breakdowns, is a reversal or breakdown possible.
4. Evaluate how we closed yesterday (ATR, swing, high and low yesterday).
5. After determining the general trend, I switch to the M5 timeframe. I draw levels on the high and low of yesterday - this forms a working channel for today, but in it trading is carried out ONLY in the direction of the daily trend:
If there is a strong trend on the daily chart, then trading begins after the breakdown of the intraday channel in the direction of the trend. If on the day we are stuck in a narrow channel (in recent days sideways), then trading begins after a false breakout, return and consolidation in the intraday channel. Trade in this case can be both long and short.
Many useful information in terms of trade in binary options can be found on the site binium.ru. You can also choose the best broker for trading.
Example: daily chart D1 and 5 minute chart M5 (USD-RUB futures SI)
Graph D1. The global trend is short. In this case, I consider 2 levels important: the upper one is the pullback extremum, the lower one is the previous low. We made a false break with a low, went back behind the level and closed above the level. I think that inside the day you can go long according to the local model to the upper level. Then I go to M5 and spend the levels on the high and low of the last day:
Schedule M5: Red levels came from the day, yellow - High and Low yesterday. I think that after fixing the price above the high of yesterday, you can go long to the upper red level.
3. Traded pattern.
Candlestick false breakout relative to the previous high/low on the M5 chart.
Conditions (For long):
1. The previous candle is shot.
2. A false breakout candle forms a new low.
3. False break candle closes within the previous candle.
4. It is desirable that the body be smaller than the tail.
5. Is it necessary for the false breakout candlestick to open with a gap?????
Conditions (For short):
6. The previous candle is long.
7. False break candle forms a new high.
8. False break candle closes within the previous candle.
9. It is desirable that the body be smaller than the tail.
10. Is it necessary for the false break candle to open with a gap?????
4. Model: False Break:
- I'm waiting for one of these levels to be broken, after that I wait until the price returns to the level.
- The entry point is the formation of a pullback or protrading and a candle of a false candle breakdown.
6. Model: Breakdown and pinning.
- On the M5 chart, I am waiting for approaches to the levels.
- I'm waiting for one of these levels to break (with momentum and pinning).
- The exact entry is the formation of a rollback or a trade and a candle of a false candle breakdown.
- After the candle closes, which formed a false breakout, I place a pending order at the closing price.
- Stop loss and take profit are placed after the order.
- The stop should not exceed a third of the daily loss limit (hence the formation of the number of contracts for each transaction for each instrument).
7. Exit the position.
After placing an order, the stop and take levels do not move. Either stop or take (otherwise the statistics will break).
Output in parts:
1 contract - 3 to 1
2 contracts - parts: 1 contract - 3 to 1, 1 contract - 4 to 1
3 contracts - parts: 2 contract - 3 to 1, 1 contract - 4 to 1
4 contracts - in parts: 2 contracts - 3 to 1, 2 contracts - 4 to 1
8. Risks.
When assessing the potential in a trade (3 to 1, etc.) and forming a pose (how short a stop) should be considered:
- The ability to place a technical stop (behind the tail of a false breakout candle or for the entire trade).
- If this is not possible, we set a third of the daily loss limit.
The daily loss limit is no more than 2% of the deposit.
A trade cannot be entered into if there is no minimum move potential of 3 to 1 (close levels or stop too high).
Do not lose more than 30% of the earnings in previous transactions .
9. Risk management
1. The maximum risk per day is 2% of the deposit.
2. The maximum risk per trade is 0.6% of the deposit.
3. Maximum amount 3 consecutive losing trades per day, after that do not trade, see why and where the errors are. If they don't, it's not your day.
4. NEVER enter a trade if the price has already left the entry point, Entry ONLY at the closing price of the bar that formed the false breakout.
10. Height
- If you closed the week in the black, add the position: From 1 to 5 contracts - increase one by one, after the position of 5 contracts add 20%, but only from the next week.
- If we closed the week in the red, we decrease the position: in reverse order, but only from the next week.
11. Statistics
- After the working day, when the market is closed, I make screenshots of transactions with subsequent analysis (whether the transaction was correct, where the market went next, were there any other entry points).
- All transactions are recorded in a separate document or on a statistics website for subsequent understanding of the statistics of profitable / losing transactions, average profit / loss, average profitable / unprofitable day or other period.
