U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. Denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar equals 100 cents. Denominations of banknotes in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have not been issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval coin thaler, minted in Germany.
Traditionally, the obverse side of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 note has a special design on the back, consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and held in Washington.
It is believed that in order to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. At the same time, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.
For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit has been introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. At the same time, each time, as a result of a change in the ratio of prices for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.
In 1900, the gold standard was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued by 41% for the first time as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold was worth $35.
At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit that was exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were tied to the US. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's accounting currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.
However, by 1960, the chronic deficit of the US budget led to the fact that the amount of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally terminated after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.
During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican monetary system, which finally legalized the rejection of the gold backing of currencies.
The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put US manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, the exchange rate had actually been halved against the Japanese yen, the pound, and the German mark.
In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.
1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.
The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of a single European currency, into which the central banks of many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.
For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.
Despite competition from the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading position in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base for settlements through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.
The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are carried out through this currency and the main quotes are set.
Experts' opinions regarding the future dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.
On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, outpacing China, which is in second place, by almost two to one. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in US currency and during crises seek to convert them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.
Most analysts polled by InvestFuture predict a significant weakening of the ruble against the dollar in the autumn months. The key negative factors cited by experts are the expected weakening of demand for oil on world markets, the consistent reduction in the Bank of Russia rate, as well as the growth of geopolitical tensions and the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions.
In the fall of 2017, experts predict the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble to the level of 65 rubles per unit of US currency. The euro exchange rate may rise above the mark of 72 rubles.
Vadim Pischikov (Algebra Investments): "68 rubles per dollar is a completely correct forecast given the current volatility of the ruble. In principle, for the currency of any developing country, a 10% fluctuation in the exchange rate is very moderate. I cannot say that this is the effect of sanctions alone. Very rapid growth in credit markets , on capital markets, shares in developing countries in the first half of 2017 led to the fact that investors simply decided to take profits in anticipation of the balance sheet reduction in the US Federal Reserve and rebalance their losses. it was known at the end of April, while the ruble did not react very much to this.
Yakov Mirkin (Head of the International Capital Markets Department, IMEMO RAS): " On the one hand, we have been saying for a long time that the ruble is too heavy, overvalued, does not correspond to such a weak economy, and that the exchange rate of 65-66, maybe 70 is more organic for it. On the other hand, everyone understood that the wave of carry trade was growing. from the second half of last year, and as soon as non-residents, who are becoming more and more in percentage terms in the Russian market, feel the increase in risks - and this can really be associated with sanctions, then capital will begin to flow out of the country. Of course, sanctions are another factor in the overall global and macroeconomic picture."
“I agree that there is a tense expectation of some shocks in the air, but, from my point of view, it can be with equal probability both a correction in the ruble and a correction in the US S&P 500. There is a lot of political passion in the market news feed: fundamental factors have receded into the background,” says a leading analyst UK "Horizon" Vladimir Rozhankovsky.
When will the ruble fall?
Rozhankovsky from Horizon Management Company notes that during the summer period, no unusual volumes are seen in dollar/ruble and euro/ruble pairs. The ruble in the coming months will not leave the range of 59.2-60.8 rubles per dollar, he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index is already below 94 points, and oil is relatively stable, the analyst points out.
In the absence of cardinal events in the oil market and in the global political arena, from the point of view of technical analysis, the pair may move in the trading range of 59-60.5 rubles in the near future, where significant levels of resistance and support are located, respectively, the trader of the operations department on the Russian stock market believes. IC market "Freedom Finance" Vladimir Shumakov.
We do not observe any particular weakening of the ruble, the dollar / ruble pair remains still in the range of 58-60, the maximum of July 11 at 61 is still far away, the analyst also notes "VTB 24 " Alexey Mikheev.
As for the euro / ruble pair, it really updated this year's high, almost reaching the mark of 70, but this is due to the fact that in recent days the euro-dollar pair has reached the highs of the year on the international currency market (1.16 is shown), Mikheev draws attention.
According to VTB 24's Mikheev, a new wave of ruble depreciation should be expected in the midst of autumn, when demand for oil will fall due to seasonal reasons. In the meantime, time after time, the data show a reduction in US oil inventories, which supports its price, he notes. In the fall, the dollar-ruble pair may well rise to 63-65 rubles per dollar, the expert predicts.
Will the dollar soar in the winter of 2017?
The US Treasury intends to sharply increase the issuance of public debt in the fourth quarter, follows from the forecast plan published by the US Treasury's Loan Committee.
From October to December, in total, the US budget plans to attract $501 billion on the market with the help of government bonds.
Placements in a record volume for 9 years, according to the plan, will begin in the second half of October. Almost a quarter of the final amount - $ 114 billion - the Treasury intends to collect in the first two weeks, until October 31. In November, the issue volume will amount to $243 billion.
The final quarterly figure - more than half a trillion dollars - is "simply breathtaking," says analyst Alexei Mikheev: more per quarter was attracted only in the 2009 financial year, during the crisis.
The result of these operations will be "withdrawal from the market of a colossal amount of dollar liquidity," which will cause a "colossal growth of the dollar," says Mikheev.
Demand for the US currency will come from banks - the Fed's primary dealers: they are the main buyers of US debt securities at auctions and also control 73% of the forex market.
"These are such major banks as Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup, Goldman, Sachs & Co., Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Securities, etc.," Mikheev lists.
Last update: 03/09/2020
Reading time: 13 min. | Views: 51160
Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2020; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.
After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.
Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.
Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.
So, from this article you will learn:
- What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
- What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2020;
- What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.
Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.
If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end
1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊
Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.
The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.
The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.
The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.
As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.
In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:
- "Rosneft";
- "Transneft";
- Gazpromneft.
The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:
- "Sberbank of Russia";
- "VTB";
- Gazprombank;
- "VEB";
- Rosselkhozbank.
The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:
- Uralvagonzavod;
- "Oboronprom";
- United Aircraft Corporation.
The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.
In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.
Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.
The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.
Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.
Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.
Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.
America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days
.
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.
As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?
Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.
First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.
Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.
Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .
Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.
Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.
Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.
Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.
In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.
What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions
2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉
In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .
The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.
The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.
Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.
Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.
The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.
They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.
Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:
- optimistic
- anxious
- realistic.
1st scenario - Optimistic
If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.
The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2020.
2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario
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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.
Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.
Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.
Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .
The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.
With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current positions.
Several reasons will contribute to this:
- The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
- The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.
Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.
3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario
As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.
As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .
Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions
3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋
In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.
What influences the behavior of the national currency?
* Factors of growth of the ruble
Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:
- Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
- Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
- The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
- The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
- Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.
* Factors of the fall of the ruble
In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.
These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.
- Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
- Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its positions. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
- Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
- Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
- Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
- Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.
4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒
As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.
To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.
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Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.
modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.
The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.
According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .
Igor believes that several factors influenced this:
- restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
- the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
- national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
- US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.
Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.
But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.
Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.
Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.
It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.
The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2020, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .
These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.
5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢
The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.
Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil
Impossible to predict oil price in 2020. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.
Thanks to the latest news, the cost of a barrel of oil is falling. Resistance at this stage is $75 and $85. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. Support — $45, when “breaking through” down — leaving the range of $25
At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.
6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰
For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.
Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.
Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.
The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.
Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.
Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.
Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.
One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.
According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2020 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.
All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.
7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢
Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?
The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.
At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.
It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.
For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.
City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.
In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.
Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.
Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?
In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.
Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.
We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.
Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?
The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.
The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.
Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt
. In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.
People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?
If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.
Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.
The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.
The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.
Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.
This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.
The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.
In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.
America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.
The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:
- the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
- if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.
If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.
Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2020?
We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.
8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎
Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.
* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future
From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!
If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.
9. Conclusion + related video 🎥
Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.
But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.
A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.
After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.
All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.
It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.
But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.
We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.
If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.
In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video
Moscow has been trying in recent years to achieve trade in national currencies with Cairo, Beijing, New Delhi, Ankara and many others. But the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017 show that the dependence of the Russian economy on the value of the dollar is still too great. Denying it is stupid.
Of course, no one can give a guaranteed forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017. However, it is possible to highlight the main points that can increase or decrease the value of the national currency of the Russian Federation.
Senior Analyst of the largest brokerage company Alpari Roman Tkachuk shared his thoughts with the editors and gave his fresh forecast for the dollar for 2017:
Roman Tkachuk | Youtube
« Firstly, the general trend of the strengthening of the dollar in world markets remains in force, parity between the dollar and the euro is likely next year. Secondly, over the past year, the ruble has actually developed immunity to fluctuations in oil prices. This is due, among other things, to the fact that the Russian budget has become less dependent on petrodollars. In addition, in 2016, the volatility of Brent was up to 3-5% per day, these are normal intraday fluctuations for a commodity asset, but not for the national currency, so the ruble exchange rate was smoother.
If for another 2-3 years the ruble exchange rate followed the oil quotes as a pegged one, now the dependence has decreased. Nevertheless, the oil factor remains decisive for the ruble. Now the oil market is positive, and we do not exclude that in late 2016-early 2017 Brent will test the level of 60-61 dollars per barrel. Against this background, USD/RUB may reach the psychological level of 60, and EUR/RUB – the level of 63.5.
Past not yet fully incorporated into the ruble exchange rate. If we look at the cost of a barrel in rubles, now it is at the level of 3612.7, and this is a two-year maximum. So the potential for strengthening the ruble in the near future remains.
However, the latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017, as well as market sentiment, may change. The reason may be the failure to comply with agreements between oil-producing countries to reduce quotas by individual participants (from a technological point of view, it is difficult to sharply reduce production, and investments in individual projects for 2017 have already been allocated) and the activation of shale projects (at an oil price of $60 per barrel, they return to profitability). In my opinion, in the first or second quarter of 2017, Brent may roll back to $50-55 per barrel, against this background, the position of the ruble will also weaken».
« How will it affect the ruble while it's hard to say. On the one hand, foreign policy pressure on Russia may ease. On the other hand, Trump advocates the energy independence of the United States, shale projects may become more active in the coming years, and this is negative for oil and ruble quotes.
In our opinion, the current positive on the foreign exchange market should be taken as a New Year's gift, for example, you can buy currency with a "New Year's discount", especially if you plan to spend the New Year holidays at Christmas sales in Europe or at Alpine ski resorts».
Kommersant Bogdan Zvarich, an analyst from the FINAM group of companies, said that the dollar exchange rate in 2017, as before, will mainly depend on the price of oil. However, the expert also warned that the excessive strengthening of the ruble should not be rejoiced, as this could lead to negative consequences:
“In my opinion, the main factor for the Russian currency will be the dynamics of oil prices. And here the players will carefully monitor how the agreements reached within OPEC and OPEC+ are observed. If exporters manage not to violate their obligations, as well as these agreements are extended to the second half of 2017, this will provide significant support to the ruble. However, we do not expect a strong strengthening.
It is quite possible that the average dollar exchange rate in 2017 will be about 60 rubles. Further strengthening of the ruble is not beneficial either for the government, as it will reduce the volume of tax revenues from oil and gas companies, and for manufacturers – the real sector will lose its competitiveness with the strengthening of the ruble.”
As for more precise figures, one should look at the forecasts of serious financial institutions both in the West and in Russia itself. We list only the most significant and latest dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017:
- dollar exchange rate for 2017 experts from the American banking holding Morgan Stanley they think it will be 85 rubles for 1 dollar - at the very beginning of the year, 80 - the second quarter, 78 - the third, by the end of the year - a decrease to 76;
- investment bank forecast Merill Lynch quite constant - for the whole next year - 65 rubles for 1 dollar;
- predicting the crisis and the mortgage recession in the US in 2008, a Russian analyst - the national currency of the Russian Federation is waiting for a wave-like growth, reaching 97 rubles, there will be a decrease, then again rise to 110 rubles per dollar;
- at Ministry of Economic Development Russia has several scenarios. The basic forecast for the dollar for 2017 is 67.2 rubles, the worst expectations are 81 rubles per dollar;
- forecast APEKON(Russian Agency for Economic Forecasting) - a drop in the first quarter to 63 rubles, then an increase until the end of the year to 74.4 rubles. By the way, the rise will be stable - 2.5% per month.
As a result, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 has the following “medium limits” - from 65 to 80 rubles per dollar. As for the floating prices by quarters, there are many political factors. If we look at 2017 chronologically, the following picture emerges:
- Spring- The EU can lift sanctions from the Russian Federation, then there is a possibility of the ruble rising by 10-25%. Otherwise, the mark will be the same;
- by the beginning of summer- activity will subside somewhat, therefore, wherever the ruble is, it will again be pulled closer to the current rate (62-67). Of course, this is provided that OPEC will adhere to the planned restrictions on oil production, and its price will not “jump”, provoking the weakening of the ruble;
- autumn- a series of elections in the EU countries may affect the Russian currency. Most likely, the current European elites will be able to hold on to power, that is, there will be no shocks on the world market, which means that the ruble is not higher than 67.
Also, the dollar exchange rate for 2017 (experts agree here) will not “jump” if the US Federal Reserve still does not decide to raise the interest rate.
The economic situation unfolding in our country has been very unstable lately. The unpredictable state of the economy raises serious concerns among many Russians. The constant rise in prices for products and services, the fall of the ruble - what will happen in the future of Russia?
One of the main indicators of our economy is the ratio of the dollar to the ruble, unfortunately, we are dependent on this currency.
Many expert analysts are trying to assess the current situation for the future. A lot of forecasts for 2017 in relation to the dollar have been made, but it is too early to talk about specific results - time will tell.
Expert opinion on the dollar exchange rate
Analyzing the latest statistics, it is clear that the dollar has increased since 2010 by almost 40% against the ruble. The unfavorable development of the situation in Syria and Ukraine will only provoke the fall of our currency, worsening the economic situation.
The Central Bank tried to have a one-time influence on the foreign exchange market and influence the growth of the exchange rate, but this attempt did not bring favorable results.
Analysts believe that now there are only ways to indirectly influence monetary policy. They are based on effective measures that allow direct control over the level of inflation in Russia. Judging by the opinion of experts, there are two possible answers to the question of how much the dollar will cost in 2017.
Optimistic option
The fall of the ruble in the current 2016 will continue, but at an insignificant pace, the average annual dollar rate, projected now, will be 69.4-69.5 rubles. But in 2017, we can expect the strengthening of the native currency - this was stated in the review for January on monitoring the situation of the Russian economy, provided by the RANEPA.
According to the assumed scenario, the expected increase in the ruble exchange rate in 2016 by 10.7-10.9% will occur, and 2017 will please with an increase of another 3.6%.
The Russian economy is now in a state of confident recovery. This is confirmed by the government's promise to mark the estimated cost of a barrel of oil from Asian countries within $95. How much, according to the forecast for 2017, will the dollar cost in Russia? Its price will return to 30-40 rubles. This option is also confirmed by the planned refusal of Western countries from sanctions, which will lead to a steady increase in GDP to 0.6%.
Pessimistic option
Regular collapses of the oil market indicate a possible deterioration in the events of our economy. Remember, back in 2015, the dollar exchange rate was within 58 rubles, and now it is about 76. And the government plans to work on developing exports, but not on strengthening the currency.
- Leading economists of UralSib O. Sterina and A. Devyatov talk about a possible drop in oil prices to $33.3 in 2016, which means that the dollar will cost about 80 rubles. But experts also emphasize that a softer forecast is possible, given how many offers there are on the oil market.
According to pessimistic analyzes, oil quotes will stubbornly stay at a low level ($33-35), this situation will last until 2018. According to experts, in this scenario, in 2017 the dollar rate may be 82-83 rubles.
harsh reality
What will be the real exchange rate of the dollar in 2017? Will sanctions be lifted? Given last year's June vote, European countries are ready to keep them at the same level. Perhaps there will even be an increase in the sanctions situation due to the ongoing conflict situation in Ukraine.
Oil position. According to Aleksey Kudrin (former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation), a stressful forecast for the cost of a barrel of oil is being considered. In his opinion, the price of $25 per barrel is quite realistic. Earlier, Dmitry Tulin (First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank) spoke about considering a risky scenario for the development of events.
The new position of the Central Bank includes the expected cost of oil at $35/barrel. Thus, a pessimistic view on the ruble exchange rate is more expected. But considering that this forecast is preliminary, and the final document will be released in March, one can hope for the best.
Will there be a default?
Many leading foreign agencies in the investment market deliberately lower the level of Russia, even the words are heard that now the Russian rating is approaching a dangerous line (“garbage” position, in other words). And more and more often you can hear opinions about the expected decline of the ruble and the possible default of our country.
Default is a terrible word for any state. This means that the country's economy is at such a deplorable level that its budget is no longer able to cover current expenses and social obligations.
Many loans will begin to appear - internal and external. The weaker the country's economy, the more credits this state will have. Illiterate work with debt obligations leads to a ruthless default. Recently, only 4 default situations have shown themselves in the world: 1994 Mexico, 1998 Russia, 2001 Argentina and 2003 Uruguay.
If we take into account the forecast of analysts for the growth of the dollar value for the next year, in order to prevent a default, additional income should be more than a trillion rubles. And at the beginning of the year, about 500 million rubles should be in the reserve.
Ways out. To protect the budget from possible "holes", there are several ways for the Reserve Fund to avoid an unpleasant situation:
- Withdraw part of the funds from the National Welfare Fund. But, analysts say that it is undesirable to touch it, the devastation of this Fund can provoke an increase in debts.
- Launch emission financing (issuance of new banknotes). If you look at the dynamics of money, you can see that the growth of the money supply increased by 11.5% in 2015. This path has already begun and such funding is included in the current position of the ruble.
- Debit cut.
How much will cut costs? After all, the last point is the best option. They are planned to be reduced by 200 billion rubles in 2016, and by 1 trillion rubles in 2017. It is rather problematic to cut the budget, so this will affect the indexation of pensions.
Dollar growth in 2016 will continue, subject to a steady fall in oil prices, another important factor in the devaluation of the ruble may be the expansion of Russia's sanctions range. Ultimately, the 2017 dollar can cost about 100 rubles. We will have to put up with a change in income for the worse. But there is always hope for a better prognosis. It remains to wait and hope.
