Age composition is one of the most important characteristics of the population and is of significant interest from demographic, social and economic points of view. It is used to calculate the available and
The projected number of economically active population, labor resources, pensioners, preschoolers, schoolchildren. It is of particular importance now, when specialists from different countries are increasingly concerned about the aging of the nation. This process is becoming global, gradually covering more and more countries.
When considering the age composition of the population, three main age groups are usually distinguished: younger (children from birth to 14 years), middle (from 14 to 59 years) and older (elderly) - 60 years or more. This section is the basis for assessing the biological “youth” or “old age” of a society. At the same time, some sources use a different gradation of the population of the middle and older age groups - 15-64 and 65 years and older. For this reason, we will have to use data consistent with both approaches.
The age structure of the world's population depends on the following factors: fertility, mortality, life expectancy. If we are talking about a specific country or territory, then the influence of historical events (primarily related to military operations), demographic policy and migration is added to them. In turn, many demographic indicators, especially fertility and mortality, depend on the age composition. Thus, with an increase in the proportion of the population in the older age group, the first indicator decreases and the second increases.
In 2005, the population of the youngest age group in the world was 27.8%, the middle age group (aged 15-64 years) - 64.9%, the oldest age group 65 years and older - 7.3% (in 2008 - 27 , 3, 65.1 and 7.6%, respectively). However, there are significant differences between countries depending on the level of development. In developed countries, the population of the younger age group was 17%, middle - 63%, older - 20%, in less developed countries - 32, 60 and 8%, respectively, and in the least developed - 43, 52 and 5%. Noteworthy is the significant gap in the share of the younger and older age groups between the first and two other groups. In more developed countries, a unique and highly symbolic demographic revolution took place in 1998 - the share of the population in the older age group exceeded the share of the population under the age of 14. According to forecasts, in 2050 a similar revolution will take place all over the world - 21.1% of the elderly versus 21% of children.
So, we can distinguish two main types of age structure of the population: the first characterizes more developed countries, as well as a number of countries in Asia and Latin America (primarily the newly industrialized ones), the second characterizes the majority of representatives of the second and third groups (the majority of developing ones). More developed countries have “survived” a demographic explosion, and its “echoes” are clearly visible in the age structure. It is precisely because of the demographic explosion that took place in the 50-60s that more than 60% of the population of these countries are people aged 15 to 60 years. This group of countries is characterized by a reduced proportion of children, in some countries reaching record lows, and a large percentage of older people. The clear predominance of European countries, as well as the large number of post-socialist states, which are characterized by extremely low birth rates, attracts attention.
Developing, characterized by a large percentage of the population of childhood (from a third and above) and a small proportion of elderly people. All these figures are easy to explain: in countries of this type there is a high birth rate, a large natural increase, and life expectancy is negligible. Moreover, high indicators of the share of the population in the younger age group and low indicators in the older age group characterize the poor countries of the world. Let's illustrate this with a table. All states presented in the table belong to the group of least developed countries in the world, except for Yemen and Afghanistan, this is Africa.
As the demographic transition phases progress and life expectancy increases, the situation in developing countries will change: the proportion of children will decrease, the proportion of the middle-aged and then elderly population will increase. These “transformations” will affect not only the age structure, but also social and economic status. It is known that the rapid increase in population in developing countries does not have the positive potential that was noted in developed countries; on the contrary, most often it negatively affects the economy of backward countries. This increases the burden on arable land, exacerbates the food problem, raises the question of creating new jobs and increasing access to educational institutions (57 million boys and 96 million girls in developing countries aged 15-24 cannot read or write). In addition, the rate of population aging in developing countries is expected to be higher than in developed ones.
In general, the world is growing up, or rather, its population is growing up. In the mid-1970s, the median age of the world population was 22.9 years; today it is 27.6 years (27 years for men and 28.2 for women). By 2050, the global median age is expected to exceed 36 years, with the proportion of the population in the older age group increasing sharply.
“Growing up” does not occur in all countries at the same time, but gradually: in many developing countries, while “childhood and youth” predominate, this is especially typical for the least developed countries, the population of developed and post-socialist countries looks like “adults,” one might say “mature.” countries In the future, the world will begin to age; the proportion of older people grew throughout the second half of the 20th century. Today, the world's elderly population is growing by 2% annually, which is significantly higher than the rate of increase in the population as a whole. This trend is expected to not only continue, but also intensify in the coming decades. Thus, the growth rate of the population aged 60 years and older in 2025-2030 will reach 2.8% per year. This is facilitated not only by a decrease in the birth rate, but also by an increase in average life expectancy; this figure for the world as a whole increased from 46 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2003, and in developed countries the average life expectancy is 76 years, in less developed countries - 63 years, and in the least developed countries - 50 years (in the least developed countries, life expectancy is one third shorter than the life expectancy of representatives of the “golden billion”).
Age is the period from a person’s birth to one or another moment in his life.
It is most important to divide people by age into three categories:
1. Under 16 years old - 22.4%
2. 16-65 (able-bodied) – 64.6%
3. More than 65 years (above working age) - 13%. According to territorial differences, the youngest (in terms of population composition) is the Far East, the oldest is the Central Black Earth region.
The age structure of the population plays an important role in demographic processes, influencing the value of all demographic indicators. Thus, with a relatively high percentage of young people in the population, there will be a high marriage and birth rate and a low mortality rate (since, quite naturally, young people get sick less often and die even less often). In turn, demographic processes have a strong impact on the age structure of the population.
Age structure plays an active role not only in demographic, but in all social processes. Age is associated with psychology, emotionality, and to some extent, the human mind. Rebellions and revolutions occur more often in societies with a young age structure. On the contrary, aging societies, with a high proportion of elderly people, are subject to dogmatism and stagnation.
Information about the age of individual groups of people at the time of observation allows us to build the age structure of the population.
To construct the age structure of the population, one-year and five-year age intervals are usually used. Much less often, the age structure is built on ten-year age intervals.
The five-year age structure is built according to the following age groups: 0 years, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years,..., 35-39 years, ..., 80-84 years, ..., 100 years and older.
This is the so-called standard age grouping, which is used in international demostatistical practice (in particular, in UN publications) and which should be followed by everyone who uses age as an independent or dependent variable. This is necessary to ensure comparability of results across studies.
The general trend of changes in the age structure of the population as the birth rate decreases and average life expectancy increases, naturally, is the trend of an increase in the proportion of older people, i.e. process of demographic aging of the population.
Under aging population, or demographic aging, refers to the increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the population.
There are two types of population aging:
· aging from below, which is the result of declining birth rates.
· aging from above, which is the result of an increase in the average life expectancy, a decrease in mortality at older ages in conditions of low birth rate.
Every society develops a fairly stable age structure of the population. According to the predominance of certain ages in it, the population is characterized as “young”, “mature” or “aging” (types of age structures according to F. Burgdörfer), see Figure 1:
a) young (growing) population reflects a large proportion of children and a small proportion of elderly, which creates conditions for population growth - a progressive type of age structure;
b) mature (stationary) population- with a predominance of adult generations and a moderate proportion of other ages. This type shows relative stability, stability of the population, the possibility of replacing outgoing generations with younger ones. This composition of the population supports its achieved size - a stationary type of age structure of the population;
c) aging (declining) population- with an increased proportion of older people compared to children's generations - a regressive type of age structure of the population. This indicates a possible decline in the number of people, in which younger generations do not make up for the number of those leaving.
a B C)
Population aging has adverse economic and social consequences. Firstly, the proportion of old-age pensioners is increasing. Pension funds bear an exorbitant burden of expenses for paying pensions, because the proportion of the working population making contributions to these funds is declining.
Secondly, the increase in the proportion of older people poses a challenge for society to organize care for them, especially since the proportion of people over 80 years of age is growing faster than the proportion of older people in general. The process of “aging of the elderly” is especially important for government bodies developing social policy and services designed to help helpless old people.
Thirdly, medical care for the elderly, the need for which naturally increases as we age. Medical care requires additional funds, expansion of the network of medical and gerontological institutions, and a qualitative restructuring of the health care system.
Fourthly, employment of the elderly population, providing work for the “young elderly” who want to work (the “young elderly” usually include people under 70-75 years of age). This is a difficult problem because there are not enough jobs.
In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished:
· expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical of most modern developing countries of the world);
· simple reproduction - in subsequent generations there are approximately the same number of people as in previous ones; the population size, as a rule, remains almost unchanged (typical of some developing and developed countries);
· narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; The population is declining (typical for most developed European countries, including Russia).
When compared with other countries with low birth rates, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, it ranked 25th among such countries (the position was more dramatic in Japan, Italy, and Germany). This is not surprising, since Russia, firstly, is at that stage of the aging process when the proportion of the middle-aged population practically does not change and aging occurs due to a decrease in the proportion of children, and secondly, due to low life expectancy, not all people live to old age.
Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%.
The process of demographic aging of the population is much more typical for women, who make up more than two-thirds (68.7%) of Russians.
The average age of the country's residents is 38.9 years (in 2009 - 38.8 years), men - 36.2 years (36.1), women - 41.2 years (41.1). The average age of the population over 40 years is observed in 28 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the highest it is in the regions of the European part of Russia: in Tula, Ryazan, Tambov, Voronezh, Pskov, Tver, Penza, etc. St. Petersburg and Moscow – 42.2 – 41.1 years.
Every fifth resident of Russia (30.7 million people as of January 1, 2010) is of retirement age. The number of children and adolescents under 16 years of age is 7.9 million people, or 25.6% less than those over working age. The preponderance of older people occurs in 62 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the largest: in the Tula region and St. Petersburg - 2 times, Ryazan and Voronezh regions - 1.9 times, Tambov, Leningrad, Ivanovo, Penza, Pskov, Yaroslavl regions, Moscow - 1.8 times.
The population aged 0-15 years has been declining for 18 years (1990-2007). In 2008, due to an increase in the number of births, the number of this age group increased slightly - by 44 thousand, or 0.2%, in 2009 - by 313 thousand or 1.4%.
The lowest proportion of children aged 0-15 years in the total population is observed in Moscow and St. Petersburg - 13.0-12.9% (in Russia as a whole - 16.1%).
The working age population, compared to the beginning of 2009, decreased by 0.9 million or 1.0% (in 2008 by 0.4 million or 0.5%) and by the beginning of 2010 amounted to 88.4 million people. The dependency ratio increased to 606 people per 1000 working-age population (in 2009 – 590, respectively), incl. load of children – 259 (253), and people of retirement age – 347 (337).
Sex composition of the population
The gender composition of the population is also of great importance, since data on the ratio of men and women in general and at different ages are important for analyzing the process of population reproduction. The main reasons that determine the sex ratio in the world are: the excess of the male population over the female population at birth (by 5-6%), and in old age there is a preponderance of women, but by the age of 18-20 the sex ratio levels out.
The gender structure of the population is influenced by three main factors:
1) sex ratio among newborns (biological constant);
2) sex differences in mortality;
3) gender differences in the intensity of population migration.
On average, more boys are born than girls, and the sex ratio among newborns is stable: 105 -106 boys per 100 girls. According to physiologists, the male body in infancy is less resilient and more boys die in the early stages of life. Further, the mortality rate changes: in developed countries, the mortality rate of men is higher due to injuries and occupational diseases, as well as alcoholism and smoking; In developing countries, female mortality is often higher as a result of early marriage, frequent childbirth, hard work, poor nutrition and unequal social status.
The reasons for the difference in the average life expectancy of men and women are identified (in Russia, women now live, on average, almost 20 years longer than men):
· the influence of wars, which primarily claim the lives of men (this mainly explains the existing gender imbalance in our country);
· migrations in which mainly men take part;
· the nature of the economy, which places different demands on male and female labor. In general, the number of men in the world now exceeds the number of women by 20-30 million. But the sex ratio among the dead changed. If in 1989 there were 1077 deceased women per 1000 deceased men, then in 2002 - 866 and in 2003 - 859. In other words, the share of women among the deceased decreased from 51-52% to 46%.
The predominance of the number of women over the number of men develops in middle ages as a result of different rates of extinction of the female and male populations (for certain territories, migration processes may also have a certain significance) and increases during the transition to older age groups. In the post-war years, the “female predominance” was already noted in young groups - starting from 25-29 years old, and at ages 35 years and older it became especially obvious. In subsequent years, gender disproportion increasingly shifted to older age groups. The results of the 2002 census show that the gender imbalance has become younger again. The biologically predetermined excess of the male population over the female population has already been exhausted in the group of 25-29 years. At the age of 30 years and older, there are more and more women compared to their male counterparts - due to the higher mortality of the latter. Compared to the male population, among the female population there is a higher proportion of older people and a lower proportion of younger ones. The median age of women in Russia in 2002 was 39.8 years, and for men - 34.1 years. The ratio of women to men varies markedly across Russian regions. According to current accounting data at the beginning of 2004, in 44 regions of the Russian Federation the ratio of men to women corresponded to the national average or exceeded it, and in some quite significantly. In the Vladimir, Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Smolensk, Tver, Tula and Yaroslavl regions, as well as in St. Petersburg, there were from 1,205 to 1,238 women per 1,000 men. But in other regions, the female predominance was not so significant, and in three regions - the Kamchatka region, Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, men predominated (926-996 women per 1000 men), and in three more - Koryak, Nenets and Evenki the number of men equaled the number of women. Regions with a younger population are characterized by less gender disproportion, which naturally follows from the nature of gender asymmetry in the Russian age-sex pyramid. Accordingly, the gap in the average age of living men and women is significantly smaller where the gender disproportion is smaller. This gap is maximum in the Central and Northwestern federal districts, minimum in the Far Eastern. During the intercensus period, the number of men per 1000 women decreased noticeably in the North and East of the country, i.e. in those regions where, during the 1989 census, it was noticeably higher than in other regions of Russia. Apparently, this is due to the outflow of working-age men from these areas, who were previously attracted to these areas by more favorable working conditions, which subsequently changed during the transition to a market economy. At the same time, in 18 federal subjects there was a noticeable increase in the number of men per 1,000 women. Among them are Moscow, the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Okrug, the Republics of Adygea, North Ossetia, Dagestan, where the growth was more than 20 points and was the result of either significant entry (Moscow) or a relatively high birth rate (republics of the North Caucasus). The demographic future of the country is obviously connected with the number of potential mothers - women of reproductive age (the selected interval is from 15 to 44 years). Over the past 50 years, their number in Russia, despite some fluctuations, has generally been growing, and now it is greater than ever. The share of women of reproductive age varies quite widely across Russian regions - from 21.1% in the Tula and Ryazan regions, to 27.2% in the Yamalo-Nenets okrug, and 27.4% in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug. The differences between federal districts are much smaller. The maximum - 24.1% - falls on the Ural and Siberian federal districts, the minimum - 23.3 - on the Central District.
Employment of the population of the Russian Federation
The problems of labor and labor relations have always been accompanied by the equally important problem of employment.
Employment is the most important part of the economic element of management, an economic category that is complex in content and structure. Employment is the activity of the working-age population, related to the satisfaction of their personal and social needs and, as a rule, bringing them income.
The content of the term “employment” includes both the need of people for various types of socially useful activities, and the degree to which this need is satisfied. Consequently, the problems of employment do not coincide with the problems of unemployment, since it is necessary to take into account the characteristics of employment of various socio-demographic groups of the population, the motivation of workers, changes in the structure of labor resources and other factors. The goal of ensuring full and productive employment is to achieve increased labor efficiency, create an employment structure in accordance with the needs, improve the sectoral and regional structure of production, and take into account socio-demographic factors.
The following are considered employed:
1. employed;
2. temporarily absent due to disability, vacation, advanced training, suspension of production;
3. self-sufficient workers;
4. appointed or approved for a paid position;
5. serving in the armed forces;
6. able-bodied citizens studying in schools and other educational institutions, including those studying under the direction of the employment service.
The practical need for population accounting necessitates the identification of types of employment. Thus, a distinction is made between full, productive and freely chosen employment.
Full employment is the provision of professional work that brings income to the individual and a decent existence for him and his family.
Full employment is a goal to strive for. It is achieved when there is an appropriate level of development of productive forces and the demand for labor coincides with its supply.
The main meaning of productive employment comes down to the following. Not any work can be considered socially acceptable, but only one that meets two essential requirements. First, employment must bring workers income that provides living conditions worthy of a person. Secondly, productive employment is contrasted with formal employment. A special case of the latter is the maintenance of redundant workers or the creation of formal jobs to avoid unemployment - state policy should help ensure that the work of each person is economically feasible and maximally productive for society.
Freely chosen employment presupposes that the right to dispose of one’s own ability to work (labor power) belongs exclusively to its owner, i.e. to the employee himself. This principle guarantees the right of every worker to choose between employment and non-employment.
The above types of employment reflect the state of quantitative and qualitative balancing between the population’s need for work and jobs, which creates favorable conditions for the socio-economic progress of society.
Employment of the population can be considered effective if it provides a decent income, health, personal development, and an increase in the educational and professional level for each member of society based on the growth of social labor productivity.
The combination of full and effective employment presupposes the freedom of workers and employers, the abolition of strict state regulation in the field of labor relations, flexibility of labor in forms of employment, organization of the labor process, and the elimination of outdated prohibitions in labor activity. On the other hand, market relations in the sphere of labor presuppose the right of employers to decide for themselves the question of the quantity and quality of the labor force used and to fire workers who are unnecessary from the point of view of production.
Employment problems
The problem of employment is the problem of involving people in work and the degree to which their labor needs are satisfied with jobs. It is impossible to achieve a situation where the entire working-age population is employed. After all, some enter the workforce, others leave it, others are fired or quit, others are looking for work, i.e. There is a normal movement of labor, some of which remain unemployed for some period of time.
One of the types of structuring of the labor market is its division according to demographic and professional characteristics.
There are:
· Youth labor market- The situation developing on the Russian youth labor market in recent years is quite tense and is characterized by deteriorating trends. The scale of registered and hidden unemployment among young people is growing, and its duration is increasing. The struggle for the survival of Russian enterprises leads to tougher conditions for young people to enter the labor market. Meanwhile, the opportunities of young people are already limited due to their lower competitiveness compared to other categories of the population.
Labor market for people of pre-retirement age and pensioners. It is characterized by low labor productivity, low economic activity, and the absence or limited opportunities for retraining.
Women's labor market. Its peculiarity is the possible long breaks in work associated with the birth and raising of children, and a decrease in professional abilities for the same reason.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the following conclusions can be drawn:
· The age structure has a natural impact on the natural movement of the population, which is expressed by fertility and mortality rates. The higher the proportion of young people in the population, the higher the overall fertility rates calculated for the entire population of the territory. The higher the proportion of older people, the higher the overall mortality rate. Age is the most important characteristic of any demographic events, determining the frequency (intensity) of their occurrence.
· the decline in the birth rate is becoming extremely dangerous for Russia. Firstly, the internal potential of demographic reproduction has been exhausted. After all, to replace generations of parents, a fertility level is needed, measured by the total fertility rate, equal to at least 2.1, and today it is only 1.2. Secondly, the population and workforce are aging, people's health is declining, and the one-child family is becoming dominant.
· In addition, population aging plays an important role, which has adverse economic and social consequences. There is an increase in the proportion of age pensioners. Pension funds bear an exorbitant burden of expenses for paying pensions, because the proportion of the working population making contributions to these funds is declining. Secondly, the increase in the proportion of older people poses a challenge for society to organize care for them, especially since the proportion of people over 80 years of age is growing faster than the proportion of older people in general. Thirdly, medical care for the elderly, the need for which naturally increases as we age. Medical care requires additional funds, expansion of the network of medical and gerontological institutions, and a qualitative restructuring of the health care system.
· despite government policy to encourage motherhood, population decline continues.
Bibliography
I Regulatory acts:
1. Constitution of the Russian Federation
2. Message from the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated April 25, 2005.
3. Federal Law of December 29, 2006 N 256-FZ “On additional measures of state support for families with children”
5. Project “Strategies for socio-economic development of Perm until 2030”
II Educational literature:
6. Butov V.I., Ignatov V.G. Demography. - M., 2003.-, .Social atlas of Russian regions / Thematic reviews, 2007. - .
7. Vishnevsky A. G. Sickle and ruble. Conservative modernization in the USSR. M.: OGI, 1998-.
8. Data from the Ministry of Health and Social Development 2009 - .
9. “Demographic studies” No. 1, 2005. - .
10. Women and men of Russia 2010 // Rosstat - , , .
11. Domestic notes No. 23, 2005. - .
12. Regional Studies / Ed. A. A. Morozova. M.: 2004., p. 23-25 - .
13. Russian newspaper 2010 - .
14. Information on the number of registered births, deaths, marriages and divorces for January-May 2010 // Rosstat - .
15. Starovoitova L.I., Zolotareva T.F. Employment and its regulation: Proc. aid for students Higher textbook establishments. – M.: Academy, 2003 – p.
16. Total fertility rate // Rosstat -, .
17. Statistics: course of lectures / Ed. V. G. Ionina. M.: 2002. - .
18. Khalturina D. A., Korotaev A. V. (Ed.). Alcohol catastrophe and the potential of state policy in overcoming alcohol excess mortality in Russia. Moscow: URSS, 2008. - .
19. Khalturina D.A., Korotaev A.V. Russian Cross: Factors, mechanisms and ways to overcome the demographic crisis in Russia. Moscow: URSS, 2006., pp. 33-35.- .
Annex 1
The birth rate is as follows:
· 1980 - 15.9 per 1000 people
· 1990 - 13.4 per 1000 people
· 1995 - 9.3 per 1000 people
· 1996 - 8.9 per 1000 people
· 1997 - 8.6 per 1000 people
· 1998 - 8.8 per 1000 people
· 1999 - 8.3 per 1000 people
· 2000 - 8.7 per 1000 people
· 2001 - 9.0 per 1000 people
· 2002 - 9.7 per 1000 people
· 2003 - 10.2 per 1000 people
· 2004 - 10.4 per 1000 people
· 2005 - 10.2 per 1000 people
· 2006 - 10.4 per 1000 people
· 2007 - 11.3 per 1000 people
· 2008 - 12.1 per 1000 people
· 2009 - 12.4 per 1000 people
· 2010 - 12.4 per 1000 people (January-June)
Rosstat data 2010
Appendix 2
Population change in 2009
| Number of subjects in group | Subjects of the Russian Federation included in the group | |
| 1 Number of subjects of the Russian Federation in which the population has decreased | ||
| Total | ||
| including due to: | ||
| natural decline and migration outflow of the population | Republics of Karelia, Komi, Mari El, Mordovia; Altai, Perm and Primorsky territories; Amur, Arkhangelsk, Volgograd, Kirov, Kostroma, Kurgan, Magadan, Murmansk, Omsk, Pskov, Sakhalin, Ulyanovsk regions; Jewish Autonomous Region. | |
| excess of natural loss over migration increase | Chuvash Republic; Khabarovsk region; Bryansk, Vladimir, Vologda, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kemerovo, Kursk, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Orel, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, Tula, Chelyabinsk and Yaroslavl regions ; | |
| excess of migration outflow over natural increase | Republics of Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkess, Sakha (Yakutia), North Ossetia - Alania and Udmurtia; Transbaikal and Kamchatka territories; Irkutsk region; Chukotka Autonomous Okrug | |
| 2 Number of subjects of the Russian Federation in which the population has increased | ||
| Total | ||
| including due to: | Dldtlob | |
| natural and migration growth | Republics of Bashkortostan, Ingushetia and Khakassia; Krasnoyarsk region; Astrakhan, Tomsk and Tyumen regions; Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk - Ugra Autonomous Okrug | |
| excess of natural growth over migration outflow | Republics of Altai, Buryatia, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkarian, Tyva and Chechen; Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug | |
| excess of migration increase over natural loss | Republics of Adygea and Tatarstan; Krasnodar and Stavropol territories; Belgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Novosibirsk and Orenburg regions; Moscow and St. Petersburg. |
Appendix 3
Class: 10
Presentation for the lesson
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Methodological goal: demonstration of techniques and methods for developing informational regional studies competence of students based on the use of innovative educational technologies.
Lesson Objectives
- Educational goals: consolidate the concepts of reproduction, fertility, mortality, natural increase. To form ideas about the types of structure of the world's population, about the structure of the population by gender and age. To form ideas about geographical differences in the population structure by gender and age in different countries and regions of the world. To establish the relationship between the level of fertility and mortality and the structure of the population by gender and age in countries of different levels of socio-economic development. Continue to develop the ability to identify factors in the spatial development of regions of the world. Continue to develop skills in working with IC in Excel in order to process and analyze statistical data.
- Developmental goals: continue to improve and systematize skills: comprehend theoretical material; operate with existing knowledge; use previously acquired knowledge in a new situation; use computer technologies to solve geographical problems; develop students’ spatial thinking; increase the student’s motivation to search and acquire geographical knowledge.
- Educational goals: continue to instill in students an interest in the subject and a desire to broaden their horizons; to form an idea of the gender heterogeneity of the countries of the world due to the action of demographic, cultural, historical and economic development factors.
Lesson type: lesson in the formation and improvement of knowledge, skills and abilities.
Lesson type: combined.
Material support for the lesson: Demonstration computer complex. Students' PCs. Handout. Maksakovsky V.P. Economic social geography of the world. 10-11 grade. Textbook. - M.: Education, 2008. Electronic presentation of educational material. World map. Atlas 10-11 grade.
Study questions:
- The concept of population structure, types of demographic structures.
- Population structure by gender and age in countries of different types of socio-economic development.
- Factors of regional differences.
- Types of sex and age pyramids.
Assignment: Topic 3, paragraph 2, paragraph 1,2, creative tasks.
DURING THE CLASSES
Organizing time. Checking readiness for the lesson. ZKV report, greeting. Slide 1.
Updating students' knowledge. Activation of educational and cognitive activity. 5 minutes
Anagrams from definitions from previous lessons are presented on the screen. Slide 2. It is necessary to correctly arrange the words in the definition and write down the concepts encrypted in the anagram. Frontal work, define the concepts. Peer review. Analyze the results of the work. Determine how difficult the work was and why.
- Continuous, occurs, fertility, as a result, in, generations, totality, mortality, processes, and, which, change.
- Children, residents, born, number, 1000, on.
- Mortality, between, difference, birth rate, indicator, etc.
- Growth, value, natural, negative.
- Given, people, totality, planet, in, living, moment, on. Slide 3. Answers:
- The set of processes of fertility and mortality, as a result of which there is a continuous change of generations (reproduction).
- Number of children born per 1000 inhabitants (fertility).
- The difference between the birth rate and death rate (natural increase).
- Negative value of natural increase (natural loss).
- The totality of people living on the planet at a given moment (population).
Motivation and goal setting. 2 minutes. Preparation for the perception of the material. Listen to the teacher. Watch the video clip. Slide 4. V. Pozner. A world reduced to 100 people. Determine the topic of the lesson. Write it down in a notebook. Slide 5. Determine the educational questions of the lesson. Get acquainted with the lesson plan. Slide 6.
Formation and improvement of knowledge, skills and abilities. 24 min.
Listen to the teacher. Slide 7
The concept of population structure, types of demographic structures. Get acquainted with the concept of population structure. Types of structures by sex and age are recorded. Make a diagram of the types of structures in your notebook.
When analyzing the age composition of the population, it is customary to distinguish three main age groups: children (0-14 years); adults (15-64 years); elderly (65 years and older).
Slide 8. It is known that at birth there are 105-106 boys per 100 girls. However, by fertile (childbearing) age, the number of men and women equalizes. Dangerous professions, participation in wars, bad habits - these factors lead to an increase in male mortality in older ages. Therefore, women predominate in the age group over 40 years old. Don’t forget that women also have more pronounced self-preservation behavior, which is associated with caring for family and home, and responsibility for the child.
Population structure by gender and age in countries of different types of socio-economic development.
Slide 9. Do practical work. Get acquainted with the statistical and graphical method of processing geographic information (Annex 1). Based on statistical data (Appendix 2), pie charts are constructed that reflect the structure of the population by gender and age in the countries of the world according to variants. The type of development of the country is determined by the level of socio-economic development. They identify the relationship between the structure of the population by gender and age and the type of development of the country. The conclusions are written down in a notebook.
- Option 1 - Japan, Chile, UAE;
- Option 2 - Qatar, Austria, Afghanistan.
Factors of regional differences. Slide 10. Compare the maps on pages 10-11 in the atlas. Groups of countries where women and the older generation predominate are identified; countries where the working population predominates with equality between men and women; countries where men predominate and the population structure is young.
Answer the questions:
- In what type and level of development countries do men predominate?
- Do men or women predominate in developed countries?
- What differences arise in the composition of the population by gender in different parts of the world: Asia, Africa, America, Australia, Europe?
Slide 11. Identify a geographic pattern and write it down in a notebook. In economically developed countries, women predominate, while in developing countries, men predominate. There are more women in Europe, the CIS, North America and Argentina. Men predominate in Islamic countries of Asia and Africa, China. In Central and Southern Africa, Australia and Latin America, the number of men and women is approximately equal.
Slide 12. Compare histograms of the population distribution of countries by age.
- In countries of what type and level of development do children and adolescents predominate?
- What age people predominate in developed countries?
- What differences arise in the composition of the population by age in different parts of the world: Asia, Africa, America, Australia, Europe?
- What is the relationship between the age structure of the population and life expectancy in countries?
- How are fertility and mortality rates in countries related to the age structure of the population?
Slide 13. A geographic pattern is identified and recorded: in countries of the 1st type of reproduction, the population of older ages predominates, and in the countries of the second type of reproduction, the proportion of children and adolescents has increased.
Slide 14. Get acquainted with the concept of demographic burden and EAN (economically active population). In the world, about 45% of the total population is considered economically active, and in the countries of Foreign Europe, North America, Russia this figure is 48-50%, and in the countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America - 35-40%. This is due to the level of women’s employment in social production and the share of children in the age structure of the population.
The ratio between the working population and the non-working (children and elderly) is called the demographic burden. The demographic burden in the world averages 70% (that is, 70 unemployed per 100 able-bodied), in developed countries - 45-50%, in developing countries - up to 100%.
Slide 15. Work with a statistical table. Fill out the organizing table.
Table. Features of the geography of the world population by gender and age
| Type of structure by gender and age | Indicators | Countries, regions | Factors |
| Regressive: women and older population predominate | Children are no more than 22-25%, the proportion of elderly people is 15-20%, life expectancy is more than 70 years | ||
| Progressive: male predominant, population young. | Children are 40-45% or more, the proportion of the elderly population is no more than 5-6%, life expectancy is up to 45 years. | ||
| Stationary (uniform): men and women are approximately equally divided, the working-age population predominates | Children are 15-18%, the proportion of the elderly population is 10-12%, the average life expectancy is 60-70 years. |
Compare the fertility and mortality map with the results of the table. They draw a conclusion about the influence of demographic and social processes on the gender structure of the world population. You discuss the waters in your notebook.
1. The age structure in countries with different types of population reproduction has its own characteristics. In countries with the first type of reproduction, the share of children does not exceed 22-25%, while the share of elderly people is 15-20% and tends to increase due to the general “aging” of the population in these countries.
In countries with the second type of population reproduction, the proportion of children is quite high. On average it is 40-45%, and in some countries it already exceeds 50% (Kenya, Libya, Botswana). The share of the elderly population in these countries does not exceed 5-6%.
2. The age structure of the population determines its productive component - labor resources, which are valued differently in different countries. The degree of involvement of the working-age population in production is especially important, as evidenced by the indicator of the economically active population actually employed in material production and non-production spheres.
3. The gender composition of the world's population is characterized by a predominance of men. The number of men is 20-30 million higher than the number of women. On average, 104-107 boys are born per 100 girls. However, the differences across countries around the world are quite significant.
Female predominance occurs in approximately half of all countries in the world. It is most pronounced in Europe, which is associated with the longer life expectancy of women in these countries, as well as large losses of the male population during the world wars.
The ratio of men and women varies in different age groups. Thus, the greatest preponderance of the male population in all regions of the world is observed in the age group under 14 years. Older people around the world are dominated by women.
Types of sex and age pyramids. Slide 16. Get acquainted with the concept of gender and age pyramid. They establish the shape of pyramids for different types of countries according to the level of socio-economic development. Fill in the blank in the diagram.
For graphical analysis of the age and sex structure of the population, sex-age pyramids are used, which have the form of a bar chart. For each country, the pyramid has its own characteristics. In general, the pyramid of countries with the first type of population reproduction is characterized by a narrow base (low proportion of children) and a fairly wide top (high proportion of elderly people). The pyramid of developing countries, on the contrary, is characterized by a very wide base and a narrow top. The ratio of men and women (the left and right sides of the pyramid) does not have such significant differences, however, the predominance of the male population in early ages, and the predominance of the female population in older ages, is noticeable.
Major historical events that influenced population changes (primarily wars) are also reflected in age-sex pyramids.
Repetition and reinforcement. Why are women predominant in the elderly population worldwide? The predominance of women in the structure of the elderly population is associated with a significantly longer life expectancy. The differences are especially great in developed countries: here the average life expectancy for men is 72-74 years, for women - 78-80 years.
- What are the advantages and disadvantages of a high proportion of children in the population structure? The advantage is that after a certain time children will join the economically active population. The negative is the fact that a large proportion of children increases the dependency ratio, and for developing countries, which are characterized by such a population structure, this leads to a food problem, as well as to the problem of unemployment.
- Why are there more men in the Arab world? This is due to the social status of the woman and the large number of children born, which weakens health and increases female mortality.
- Why did China move from the formula “One family - one child” to the formula “There are two of us - there are two of us”? This is due to the aging of the population and an increase in the demographic burden for the narrowed generation of the Chinese population, born after the implementation of restrictive demographic policies. Also, among the first children, the proportion of boys has increased. There is a shortage of female population at young ages.
Slide 18. Checking test tasks using keys.
Keys to the test: 1-A, 2-A, 3-D, 4-B, 5-A, 6-B, 7-D, 8-B.
Summing up the lesson.
Reflection. Students answer questions.
What new did you learn about the world today? What was the most interesting thing in the lesson? What caused the difficulties? Why?
Grading. Students listen to assessments for the lesson with comments from the teacher. Receive self-study assignment and explanations for the task. Topic 3, paragraph 2, clause 1.2. Individual messages and presentations upon request.
* Brief messages and presentations(optional) on topics:
"Symbols of world religions"
“The culture of the people of the world” (using the example of one people of your choice - Irish, French, Poles, Incas, Zulu, Masai, Berbers, Australians).
Literature.
- Large electronic encyclopedia of Cyril and Methodius - M.: 2003 / www. KM. ru
- Geography grades 6-10. Library of electronic visual aids. M.: 2003.
- Geography. A large reference book for schoolchildren and those entering universities. - M.: Bustard, 2004
- Maksakovsky V.P. Economic and social geography of the world. Textbook for 10th grade of secondary schools - M.: Prosveshchenie, 2001
The age structure of the population will soon become unfavorable
The main reason for the decline in Russia's population since 1993 is its natural decline, i.e. the excess of deaths over the number of births. It was first registered in 1992, and by the beginning of 2012, the total natural decline for the entire period amounted to 13.4 million people, including 13.2 million since 1993, when the population was at its maximum.
In the past, natural growth has always played the role of the main component that ensured population growth in Russia; since the mid-1970s, migration growth has also made a certain contribution to this growth due to the positive balance of migration between Russia and the republics of the former USSR.
However, in the second half of the 1980s, natural population growth declined rapidly, came to naught by the early 1990s, and was replaced by natural decline in 1992, while the positive balance of migration increased significantly. The reduction in the population in 1993-2011 by 5.5 million people with a natural decline of 13.2 million means that by 58% (by 7.7 million people) this decline was compensated by migration growth. As a rule, this compensation was only partial; the exceptions, as mentioned, were only 1994, 2009 and 2011, when migration growth exceeded natural population decline (Fig. 2).
Figure 2. Components of population growth (decrease) in Russia in 1960-2011, thousand people
Although the sharp decline in natural population growth occurred only at the end of the 1980s, it did not come as a surprise, since it was programmed by processes that had been going on for a long time. Soviet-era forecasts predicted the emergence of a natural population decline in Russia at the beginning of the 21st century; in fact, this happened 10 years earlier, in the early 1990s, which can be explained both by the influence of the socio-economic crisis of those years and by the excessive optimism of Soviet forecasts. In any case, the natural population decline in Russia is not an accident; it is due to the population reproduction regime with low mortality and birth rates that developed in Russia already in the 1960s. If for some time natural growth still remained relatively high, it was mainly due to the peculiarities of the age structure of the population, in which a certain potential for demographic growth had been “accumulated”. But as this potential was exhausted, the ratio of the number of births and deaths became less and less favorable, which ultimately led to the emergence of the “Russian cross” - the fertility and mortality curves intersected, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. “Russian cross”. Number of births and deaths in Russia, 1960-2011, thousand
As follows from the graph in Fig. 3, natural population decline has been declining in recent years, and this reduction is sometimes viewed as a long-term trend and interpreted as an achievement of the country’s socio-demographic policy. As Maxim Topilin, Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Russian Federation, said on November 21, 2012, during a government hour in the State Duma, “in recent years, as a result of measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation to stimulate the birth rate and reduce mortality, we have established a good balance between these indicators.” He said that “in 2012, for the first time since the beginning of recorded history, natural population growth may be recorded in Russia.”
Unfortunately, the government's ability to influence natural growth is limited, and the reduction in natural decline is most likely temporary.
In fact, natural population growth (decrease) depends on three factors: fertility, mortality and age structure of the population. If the first two factors can indeed be somehow influenced with the help of certain policy measures (although this is also very difficult), then the third factor is practically not amenable to any influence. The current age structure of the Russian population, and to a large extent its age structure for the coming decades, has already taken shape; it is impossible to significantly change it.
Since the formation of the modern age composition of the population of Russia in the past occurred under the influence of a number of perturbation factors, the Russian age pyramid is greatly deformed, as a result of which the dynamics of various sex and age groups has an irregular, wave-like character, “profitable” waves from demographic and socio-economic points of view are replaced by “unprofitable” ones.
In the “zero” years, despite the continued decline in population, changes in the age and sex composition passed through a “profitable” phase, the country received a kind of “demographic dividend”; during this period, two demographically advantageous structural shifts coincided.
The first of these was due to an increase in the number of births in the 80s, which explains the increase in the number of women of reproductive age in the 90s. The number of women aged 15 to 50 rose from 36.3 million in 1992 to 40 million in 2002-2003, after which it fell slightly, still remaining very high, higher than ever in past. If we take a narrower range of ages that make the main contribution to fertility, then the number of women in the most important reproductive ages from 18 to 35 years old between 1999 and 2009 increased by more than 2 million, which could not but contribute to the increase in the number births observed after 1999. But now the growth in the number of this group of women as a whole has already stopped and, according to Rosstat’s forecast, we are expecting a huge drop - by 4.7 million people by 2020 and by more than 7 million by 2025. The dynamics of the number of women in aged 25-34 years - this age group is becoming increasingly important due to the ongoing shift in births to later ages. However, its numbers will also fall quickly, although for now it is still increasing, which slightly delays the decline in the number of births (Fig. 4).
Figure 4. Number of women aged 18-24 and 25-34 years – actual and according to Rosstat forecast, million
The second shift was due to the fact that, starting in 2001, small generations born in 1941 and subsequent war years passed the 60-year mark, as a result of which the number of people aged 60 years and older between 2001 and 2006 decreased by 10% (Fig. 5). And this, in turn, slowed down the growth in the number of deaths, since the bulk of deaths always occur among older people. But this period is over, and now the number of elderly people and their share in the population will increase rapidly and will very soon reach values unprecedented for Russia. Accordingly, the number of deaths will also increase, even if age-specific mortality rates decrease, although there are no grounds for high expectations yet. But even if such a decline occurs, it will mainly affect not older age groups.
Figure 5. Number (million people) and share (%) of people aged 60 years and older – actual and according to the average version of the Rosstat forecast
In conditions where the number of births is decreasing and the number of deaths is increasing, it is impossible for these numbers to converge. On the contrary, they will diverge, thereby again increasing the solution of the “Russian cross” that had been reduced.
Nevertheless, often officials, interpreting the reduction in natural decline arising from the characteristics of the age structure of the population as a successful result of the demographic policy pursued in the country, view it as a stable positive trend that will soon lead to a return from negative population growth to zero, or even positive. How likely is such a development of events?
“Unfavorable” changes in the already established age structure cannot be reversed; it is known for certain that soon enough the effect of favorable factors of this structure will be replaced by the effect of its unfavorable factors, as a result of which the natural decline in the population of Russia at the beginning of the next decade may exceed 500 thousand people per year and will continue to increase . Only radical positive changes in fertility and mortality can prevent this.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the focus is on the extent to which these processes are amenable to targeted influence by society, what efforts can and should be made by the government or other public institutions to change the situation, and how effective such efforts can be. To one degree or another, these issues have been raised in Russia over the past two decades, various government documents have been adopted more than once, and quite loud statements have been made, including about the success of certain political measures. Our task includes not so much an analysis of various kinds of decisions, statements and measures, but an assessment of the results achieved, the course of demographic processes, both dependent and independent of political efforts.
Age - the total number of years that a person has lived from the moment of his birth to one or another event in his life. There are biological age, which is fixed by the periods of childhood, youth, maturity and old age, and calendar age, which is fixed by the number of years lived. Demography also defines such age indicators as the age of majority, age of marriage, reproductive age, working age, retirement age, average age of life expectancy, age of longevity, average age of death. Different countries have their own special age qualifications (restrictions on rights based on age), for example, the right to vote and be elected to office, the right to enroll as a full-time student at a university, and the right to legally punish minors. Information about age is obtained from state registration documents of certain events (birth, marriage, death), from identity documents, current population registration documents, population censuses and ongoing empirical research.
Age, being the general coordinate of all demographic processes, is recorded and taken into account when registering important events in a person’s life. Age is usually measured in years, however, in newborns - in days, in the first month of life - in weeks, in the first year of life - in months. In the vast majority of countries, age calculation begins from the day of birth. But, for example, in Korea, already at the birth of a child, his age is calculated as one year. In China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, a person becomes one year older from the beginning of the calendar year, regardless of his date of birth.
A person's age is determined either by evidence (official or oral) of his date of birth, or by answering a question about the full number of years completed on his last birthday. Sometimes, during surveys, some people (usually young people) add a few years to themselves to appear older, while others (usually older people) subtract them to appear younger.
The term "age structure of the population" was introduced in German statistics in the second half of the 19th century. Age-related stricture - distribution of the entire population by age groups throughout the country to study demographic and socio-economic processes. One of the first models of such a structure was proposed by the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras, who distributed age groups according to the seasons: up to 20 years - spring (childhood), up to 40 years - summer (youth), up to 60 years - autumn (maturity), after 60 years - winter (old age). Russian demographer of the 19th century. L. P. Roslavsky-Petrovsky (1816-1872) proposed to distinguish: “the rising generation” - up to 15 years, the “blooming generation” - up to 60 years, and the “fading generation” - after 60 years. The Soviet demographer B. Ts. Urlanis considered it appropriate to distinguish age groups before the working (younger than working age) period - up to 15 years, working (working age) period - up to 59 years, and after the working (over working age) period - over 60 years. This identification of age groups is used, as a rule, in economic demography.
Currently, the demographic structure of the Russian population distinguishes the following age groups:
- - newborns (from 0 to 7 days);
- - infants (from 7 days to 1 year);
- - children of preschool age (from 1 year to 6 years);
- - schoolchildren (from 6 to 17 years old);
- - youth of reproductive age (from 17 to 30 years);
- - adults of reproductive age (women - from 30 to 55 years, men - from 30 to 60 years);
- - elderly (women - after 55 years, men - after 60 years);
- - long-livers (over 80 years old).
In China, age groups are classified as follows: youth - up to 20 years old, married - up to 30 years old, performing public duties - up to 40 years old, learning their own delusions - up to 50 years old, experiencing the last creative period of life - up to 60 years old, living the desired age - up to 70 years, old - over 70 years.
According to the international classification, it is recommended to calculate the age structure in five years, from 0 to 100 years and older. In this case, only the total number of years lived is taken into account (for example, the first group is 0-4 years, the second - 5-9 years, the third - 10-14, etc.). In empirical studies, age groups are calculated, as a rule, according to special occupational age criteria. Highlight median age - the average age of the population in the country, and modal - a common age in the country. According to the 2010 All-Russian Population Census, the median age of men was 35 years, women - 41 years. and the modal age is 36.3 and 41.4 years, respectively.
In Russian demographic statistics, in the group from 0 to 5 years old, age groups are distinguished based on year. In order to study population reproduction in demography, three main age groups are distinguished:
- - group up to reproductive age (from 0 to 14 years);
- - reproductive age group (women - from 15 to 55 years, men - from 15 to 60 years);
- - group after reproductive age (women over 55 years old, men over 60 years old).
Currently, in the world, the group before the reproductive period is 27%, the group of the reproductive period is 65%, the group after the reproductive period is 8%.
In 1894, a Swedish demographer Axel-Gustav Sundberg (1857-1914) introduced into scientific use the concepts of “age structure of the population” and its types: “stationary structure of the population”, “progressive structure of the population” and “regressive structure of the population”. He also proposed to distinguish three age groups: “children” - from 0 to 14 years old, “parents” - 15-49 years old and “grandparents” - over 50 years old. According to his calculations, the age structure can be considered stationary when children make up 27.0% of the total population, and grandparents - 23.0%; progressive - 40.0 and 23.0%, respectively; regressive - 20.0 and 30.0%.
According to demographers, the age structure of the population can be considered progressive, if the proportion of “children” in it exceeds the proportion of “grandparents”, and if regressive In the age structure, the proportion of “grandparents” exceeds the proportion of children. In the structure of the world's population, the share of children currently averages 34%, adults - 58%, and elderly - 8%, which indicates a progressive age structure of the global community.
A progressive age structure indicates expanded reproduction, a regressive one - a narrowed one. A progressive age structure is characteristic of developing countries with a young population. Economically developed countries are characterized by a regressive age structure. In Russia in 1897, the share of “children” in the age structure was 38.0%, “grandparents” - 14.0%, and currently 16.0 and 31.0%, respectively, which indicates a change in the progressive age structure the country's population into a regressive one.
During demographic studies, the following patterns were established:
- - the higher the birth rate, the younger the population structure;
- - the younger the population structure, the higher the birth rate.
According to the 2010 All-Russian Population Census, the age group of the population below working age is 17.4%, working age - 60.6%, over working age - 21.3%. The lowest proportion of children is observed in Moscow (13.2% of the population) and St. Petersburg (13.7%). For comparison, we can cite Yemen and Kenya, where the largest percentage of children is up to 50%.
According to WHO classification elderly people aged 60 to 74 years are considered old - from 75 to 89 years old, long-lived - over 90 years old. A society is considered old if the proportion of people over 65 years of age is more than 7.0% of the total population. In the last 20 years, the number of people in the world over 60 has doubled, outnumbering children aged five. According to demographers, by 2050 the share of older people in the world's population will reach 21%. Currently, in the countries of the European Union (hereinafter referred to as the EU), more than 16.0% are people over 65 years of age. In Europe, the “youngest” country is Ireland, in which 11.5% of people are aged 65 years and older, and the “oldest” is Sweden, where 17.5% of citizens of this age are. In Russia, 17.3% of the population was at this age in 2010. Compared to Europe, the United States is a younger country, although it has the same percentage of people aged 65 and older as Russia. In most countries of Africa and South-West Asia, people aged 65 years and older are 2-3%, and the number of children exceeds 40.0%.
In 2013, in Russia the number of people who reached the age of 90 was 390 thousand people, and the number of 100-year-old residents was about 7 thousand people. There are 3.4 times more women over 75 than men of the same age. 40 thousand centenarians live in Moscow. In St. Petersburg, there are more than 19 thousand centenarians over 90 years old and 326 people who have crossed the 100-year mark, the vast majority of whom are women.
In the USSR, the oldest person was recognized as a resident of Azerbaijan, Shirali Muslimov, who died in 1973 at the age of 168 years. Since Sh. Muslimov did not have a birth certificate, Western researchers refuse to consider him the oldest person in history. In Europe, the maximum life expectancy is documented in France for Jeanne Kelman, who died in 1997 at the age of 122 years. In Russia, the maximum officially confirmed age was recorded in 2009 for a resident of Kabardino-Balkaria, Ula Margusheva, 125 years old.
Modern processes of change in the age structure of the population are due, on the one hand, to a reduction in the group of newborns, and on the other, to an increase in the group of older people. A reduction in the number of newborns in the country's age structure can lead to a demographic crisis. The increase in the number of older people in the country's age structure increases the burden on its socio-economic base.
As the birth rate declines and life expectancy increases, the global demographic trend is a steady increase in the share of older people in the age structure of society. Such a process in the age structure of a country or region in demography is called aging population. The main factors of population aging are the processes of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. Reducing mortality at younger ages contributes to the rejuvenation of the age structure of the population. Increasing life expectancy at older ages contributes to population aging only at very low birth rates. In rural areas, population aging is increasing due to youth migration.
To assess the degree of population aging abroad, an indicator such as the proportion of residents over 65 years of age and the age structure of the country’s population is used. In Russia, this indicator is calculated for people over 60 years of age. In 1959 it was 9.0%, in 1979 - 13.7%, in 1999 - 18.1%, in 2002 - 19.4%, in 2010 - 21.3% . According to demographers, by 2030 the proportion of older people in European countries will be 25%.
In demography, two directions of the population aging process are distinguished: aging from below and aging from above. Aging from below due to a decrease in the birth rate, which leads to an increase in the proportion of elderly people in the age structure of the population. Aging from above - the result of increasing people's life expectancy by improving the socio-economic conditions of their lives and improving sanitary and medical services in the country. In economically developed countries today, population aging from above prevails. Modern Russia is characterized by an aging population from below. Currently, the oldest population is Japan, where the proportion of people over 65 years of age is about 30%, and by the middle of the 21st century. should reach more than 40%. The conclusions of foreign demographers indicate that in conditions of low fertility and low mortality, the aging process of the age structure is irreversible. The report "Global Trends in Human Development to 2015", prepared by the US National Intelligence Council and leading American experts, notes that in developed and developing countries, the increase in pensioners "will lead to overstraining the Social Security, pension and health care systems."
In the last 20 years, the number of people over 60 in the world has doubled. Currently, almost half of the EU residents are people of retirement age. Russia ranks 44th in the world in terms of the share of people over 60 years of age. In St. Petersburg, every fourth resident is a pensioner. The increasing proportion of older people in the country's age structure places increased demands on their socio-economic support and medical care. To relieve the socio-economic burden caused by the increasing number of older people, some countries are revising pension criteria and increasing the retirement age. Currently, in the USA, Germany, Finland and Japan, the retirement age for men and women is 65 years, in France - for men 65 years, for women - 60 years, in Russia for men - 60 years, for women - 55 years . The State Duma of Russia has repeatedly raised the issue of revising the retirement age in the direction of increasing it and reducing the categories of those who were previously provided with a preferential retirement age. The Russian Government is currently discussing the possibility of increasing the retirement age for residents of the country to the European level.
In demography, to illustrate the age and sex structure of the population, it is used gender and age pyramid, which is a bar chart of the distribution of a country's population by gender and age. This pyramid records the number of people of different sexes and age periods or their share in the total population. The configuration of a sex-age pyramid is a two-way oriented diagram in which the number of people of each sex and age is depicted by a horizontal bar of the same scale. The stripes are located one above the other in increasing order of age from 0 to 100 years, on the left for men, on the right for women. In most cases, the image of a gender and age pyramid has the shape of a pyramid, since the number of older people is, as a rule, less than that of younger people (Fig. 5.1).
Rice. 5.1.
In some cases, demographers use three types of depictions of the age-sex structure: a pyramid shape for the young population, a bell shape for the aging population, and a round amphora shape for the very old population. These forms make it possible to visually determine, respectively, the rapid rate of population growth, the decline in the birth rate of the population or the decline of the latter.
The configuration of the pyramid depends on the number of births and the number of deaths of representatives of different sexes at a certain age. Population migration has a significant impact on the configuration of the modern age-sex pyramid. The majority of migrants are young men of working age. As a result, an increase in the number of immigrants leads to an expansion of the middle part of the pyramid, and an increase in the number of emigrants leads to its narrowing. Sex and age pyramids make it possible to compare the sex and age structure of men and women, urban and rural populations, to study their changes in dynamics, and to conduct a comparative analysis of the sex and age structures of different countries and regions. Age-sex pyramids are usually constructed from census data or statistical data at annual or five-year intervals.
