Euro exchange rate forecast for the week. How to choose a good euro exchange rate forecast for a week? Euro exchange rate forecast for the week of the Central Bank

Elena Pazina

Updated: 2019.06.13

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The exchange rate is determined by market factors and depends on the ratio of demand for the currency and its supply. We studied the opinions of experts on the dynamics of the value of the euro, considered the forecast for the euro for 2019, presented by Russian and foreign financial analysts.

Factors that influence the fluctuation of the exchange rate are divided into predictable and unpredictable.

Unpredictable - those events and circumstances that occurred suddenly, and their occurrence was impossible to predict: wars, disasters, the imposition of sanctions.

Predictable ones are those whose behavior can be planned or taken into account in the forecast: oil and gasoline prices, the economic situation in the country. For example, the higher the price of oil, the stronger the position of the Russian ruble is strengthened, and its exchange rate is growing.

The ratio of the EUR/RUB currency pair also depends on the dollar exchange rate. When the dollar rises, the euro rises, and when it falls, it falls.

Due to the sanctions uncertainty and external political instability, experts predict fluctuations in the positions of the ruble against the euro. The increase will alternate with the decrease. And it is difficult to give an accurate forecast of how much the euro will cost by the end of the year.

Euro exchange rate dynamics

Euro rates for 2010-2019 are shown in the chart.

Let's take a closer look at how the euro exchange rate changed over the last year and three months of 2019.

In 2018, the exchange rate fluctuated. In general, as of 01/01/2019, there was an increase in the exchange rate compared to the data as of 01/01/2018. However, during the year the exchange rate was unstable. Growth turned into decline. In September, the highest rate was observed - 79.4966, and then its fall began again.

Opinion of financial analysts

Financial analysts express different points of view as to what lies ahead for the euro. However, all experts agree that the euro will rise in price by the end of 2019.

Euro exchange rate forecast from the Central Bank

Financial specialists of the Central Bank predict the instability of the EUR/RUB pair. This is due to the instability in the global political situation. If relations between Russia and the European Union worsen, the price of the euro may exceed 90 rubles.

In part, we are seeing this in the first quarter of 2019. The ruble then strengthens in the auction, then falls. The depreciation of the ruble and the appreciation of the euro at the end of the 1st quarter of 2019 are associated with the end of the tax period, as well as with an increase in the unstable external background.

Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development

The opinion of the experts of the Ministry of Economic Development is somewhat different from the opinion of the Central Bank. When considering whether the euro will rise in price, the ministry also predicts an appreciation of the currency, but more gradual. This will be facilitated by improved relations between the US and Russia and a relatively stable situation in Europe.

Monthly euro exchange rate forecast from Sberbank experts

Sberbank specialists provide a monthly exchange rate forecast.

Here is the latest forecast.

According to Sberbank experts, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate during 2019. In the summer, an increase in the exchange rate is predicted, in August-September - its slight fall, and by the end of the year - an increase again. However, sharp jumps are not expected. At the end of the year, the projected euro exchange rate will slightly exceed 73 rubles per 1 euro.

Forecasts of foreign experts

To the question whether the euro will rise, foreign experts answer unequivocally: the euro will grow. However, a sharper jump in the exchange rate is predicted by the end of the year.

Foreign experts from Walletinvestor made their forecast using a technical analysis of currency pairs in Forex.

In order not to lose savings and not fall into a debt hole, experts advise:

• do not issue a foreign currency mortgage. Although the rates on these loans are lower than on loans in rubles, the projected growth in the exchange rate may significantly affect the family budget;
• it is better to invest money in precious metals or real estate;
• if you keep funds in foreign currency, then form a currency basket: keep funds in several types of foreign currencies.

Exchange rate stabilization measures

The government, together with the Central Bank, is developing a set of measures to regulate the exchange rate of the national currency.

The main goal of the Bank of Russia is the development and implementation of a set of measures to ensure the stability of the ruble.

Measures that are used to strengthen the course:

• maintaining price stability in the country and reducing inflation;
• an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves through the use of excess profits from the sale of oil;
• import substitution of goods and services;
• planning the state budget and reducing its expenditure side;
• experts also advise not to buy currency on weekends and holidays. This is due to the fact that, in anticipation of new trades, banks increase rates in order to reduce risks in the event of sharp currency fluctuations.

Thus, it is quite difficult to predict the behavior of the EUR/RUB currency pair. It is necessary to take into account both known factors and the likelihood of unexpected components. The opinions of experts on the behavior of the euro exchange rate differ, but for the most part they agree that its exchange rate will increase by the end of 2019.

This page contains information from various sources trying to predict the euro for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.

Sorry, forecasts are not available at this time.

Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate

There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or the euro (or rather, the exchange rate or the strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the price of oil and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency, based on the corresponding price movements for this energy carrier.

We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple coefficients that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.

Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and euro

Pearson coefficient = -0.0357

No correlation is currently observed.

If the Pearson coefficient modulo tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the considered interval. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these coefficients.

The history of Pearson's ratio fluctuations over the past year

It can be seen that over time, the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.

As a result, there is no exact way to predict the euro exchange rate. On the Internet, you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the currency markets use their models, trained with the help of machine learning, heaps of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.

There are also a lot of sites with frank trash on the Internet. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, a month, a year - any period. By all indications - all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.

The euro exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by day is displayed on this site with the ability to track adjustments for the month. The information is of interest to both entrepreneurs, representatives of large businesses, and ordinary people who prefer to keep their savings in one of the most reliable currencies in the world. Information is updated immediately after the release of official data.

How is the euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today and tomorrow?

Changes in the euro exchange rate of the Central Bank for today and tomorrow are taking place under the close supervision of the state. Official data is used for calculations. The unofficial rate often differs from that which was set by the Central Bank and is used for settlements between individuals and ordinary citizens.

The formation rules are spelled out in the order of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation No. 286-P of 2006. According to them, official data are indicated every business day, but they can be used on the next calendar day. The Euro rate of the Central Bank is also valid on weekends, but the one that was set on Friday. The next changes occur on Monday.

To determine the main provisions, the values ​​​​of the value of the Moscow Exchange for trading in the pair of the US dollar - the Russian national currency are used. For this, the average value of the US currency during the index session is taken. The latter begins immediately after the opening of trading, continues until 11.30. The order to assign new quotes is more often issued by three o'clock in the afternoon.

Dynamics of the euro exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

On our website, the dynamics of the euro exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is presented in a monthly chart. You can see her:

• for three days;
• a week;
• quarter;
• all time.

Just below the graph is another one - by month. Comparing the indicators, you can make a forecast, determine the best time to make a deal or assess the situation on the foreign exchange market. The indicators serve as the basis for calculations:

• in the framework of accounting;
• calculations of customs and tax services;
• financial operations of the Ministry of Finance.

How to convert euros to rubles?

Use the euro to ruble converter to find out more accurate values ​​for today: the transfer is carried out instantly. With the help of a special program, you can find out how many rubles are in euros, evaluate the benefits of the available amount of foreign money.

Given the data of the Central Bank, which were established yesterday. For information about commercial rates, go to the appropriate tab "Currency rates". The purchase and sale data are given at the most favorable commercial rates. By clicking on the name of the specified bank, you can get more detailed information, including the location of branches in your city.

Being the most popular and most liquid currency pair, it attracts the attention of financial specialists from all over the world who develop their trading plans on this particular instrument. A novice investor will always be able to find a lot of sufficiently high-quality analytics, and an experienced player will receive a stable and liquid instrument for increasing capital.

Euro-Dollar forecast (online) for today

The euro/dollar forecast has a different timeframe and value. It is best to pay attention to the strongest forecast − Actively buy or Actively sell. In addition, it should be said that a strong signal will be the repetition of one signal on all timeframes.

Forecast Euro - Dollar compiled on the basis of a lot of technical analysis and does not include fundamental indicators.

Euro to Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate for today and for all time

Visually examining the euro-dollar exchange rate chart, you can see that the quote trades price levels well, as if giving an opportunity to get out of a losing position with minimal losses even to the most leisurely trader. In general, the EUR/USD chart is a reference in terms of technology for all other banknotes of developed countries.

general characteristics

The currency pair is an extremely popular instrument.

More than a third of the total trading volume on the foreign exchange market falls on the Euro-Dollar quotation.

This is explained by the scale of the economies of national currencies.

The base currency is the euro, the dollar is the quoted currency. That is, the euro dollar exchange rate indicates how many dollars you need to pay for one euro.

• If positive news comes out in America, and you predict the growth of the dollar, then you need to quote sell.
• If you predict the growth of the European currency against the dollar, then you need to quote buy(in this case, the exchange rate rises as more and more dollars will have to be paid for 1 euro)

In the Forex market with a quote, they work with standard lots of 100,000 dollars. Brokers make it possible to trade fractional lots and work with extremely small volumes, up to 1 euro. Euro-Dollar futures are traded in lots of 1,000 euros with a margin of only 3,500 rubles.

Factors of influence on EUR USD and what the Rate depends on

The main factors of influence that can change the EUR USD quotes are concentrated around the monetary policy of the United States. There are several levers that help the Fed regulate and change the flow of cash in every possible way:

• Open market interventions;
• Increase or decrease in the discount rate;
• Managing the level of reserve requirements.

The Fed's board can directly change reserve requirements and the discount rate. A special committee works with open market operations. By resorting to changes in one of three factors, the Fed affects the amount of funds and, ultimately, changes the physical relationship between the US dollar and other currencies, including the euro. Thus, the decisions of the Fed are priority factors in the long term for the existence of the EURUSD currency pair.

The primary factor influencing the EUR/USD is the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System on government funds. This is the indicator by which credit institutions (banks) pay interest on a daily loan. The US financial regulator changes the interest rate when a tightening or weakening of the national currency is required. Traditionally, such actions have a significant impact on both the currency and stock markets.

European Central Bank or abbreviated « ECB regulates the monetary policy of the EU countries. The main decisions on the supply of the European currency are made by the board, which is formed from representatives of the national banks of the EU member states.

The primary goal of the ECB's work is financial stability and the full overcoming of the consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Like most reserve currencies, the euro/dollar reacts appropriately to political instability. As an example, we can cite changes in the composition of parliaments and cabinets of ministers in countries such as Great Britain, France or Germany.

Serious financial problems of all EU members may have a negative impact on the euro. This can be seen from the dynamics of euro prices during the economic crisis in Greece and Spain. The release of macroeconomic statistics is also a very important factor influencing the strengthening or weakening of the European currency.

The most important news comes from Germany. This is due to the fact that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, leaving the UK and France in second and third place. The most important information is the state of the gross national product (GNP), indicators of theoretical and real inflation, growth ratesor falling industrial production and unemployment claims. In Germany, the lion's share of statistics falls into the majority of published financial market indicators. It is important to take into account the budget deficit and the effectiveness of the current measures against recession in the economy.

How to profitably trade Euro-Dollar

There is a strong inverse correlation between the EUR/USD quotes and showing the approximate relationship between the euro and the franc. This is due to the fact that the financial condition of Switzerland itself is very dependent on the economic and political events of the European Union. Most often, a decline in the euro/dollar is followed by an immediate collapse in the EUR/CHF. In rare exceptions, the situation repeats itself, but already exactly the opposite. Also, a significant correlation is observed with the pair due to the correlation of the pound with the euro.

In order to make money on the euro-dollar, a trader will need some skill. Quick deals on 15 or even five minutes allow you to get a noticeable profit. A high degree of trade and excellent liquidity makes the euro\dollar the most popular instrument on the international currency market.

Frequent fluctuations of this quote allow you to implement the most daring and risky trading strategies. , or combined indicators (such as ) can give reasonably accurate entry points. Exiting positions can traditionally be based on breaking through the price channel. When working with charts of 1 day or more, exiting a position and reversing it can also be carried out based on the intersection of moving averages.

Example

For trading, we have chosen a broker and a derivative financial instrument -. Only here you can get the maximum profit with the simplest analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate.

The thing is that in order to make money on options, it is only necessary to determine the future direction of the quote. Options have a fixed profit, which does not depend on the level of price change.

Let's start with an asset:

Specify the option expiration time:

We conducted a small analysis, compared the forecast for the euro dollar and came to the conclusion that the quote EUR/USD will continue to fall in the near future. In the option conditions, we entered the amount and pressed the button WAY DOWN — fall forecast:

Features of the EURUSD currency pair

The Euro-Dollar has a so-called cross rate effect. The euro dollar exchange rate is often influenced by price changes in currency pairs in which the dollar is not present ( e.g. EUR/CAD or EUR/AUD). The rate may decrease due to the release of positive statistics and news from Japan, which will be transmitted through the movement of the EUR/JPY pair.

The highest trading activity falls on two trading sessions in a row - American and European, but often the peak of trading occurs during the intersection of trading sessions from 16:00 to 18:00 Moscow time.

The main feature is the ease of forecasting a currency pair due to the huge flow of information, at the same time, thanks to it, it is often difficult for a trader to determine the direction due to the dominance of news. Nevertheless, the Euro-Dollar currency pair is an indicator for many strategies due to its volatility and liquidity.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

Depends on many factors. It is determined at the MICEX auctions. According to this information, the official one, which is set by the euro against the ruble for the next day, becomes known approximately always at the same time. This data is used in:

• accounting calculations,
• taxation,
• official accounts.

The decisions of the ECB are decisive for the indicators. He uses the interest rate as the main mechanism for managing inflation and the speed of economic development. With the expectation of its increase, the euro grows against the ruble.

Factors affecting the growth of the euro

The euro exchange rate for tomorrow may change by several points at once. It depends on the demand for the US national currency. Economic news is also important. When transferring funds by investors from one currency unit to another, an increase or decrease in the price of a currency is noted. It is noted that with a fall in demand for the dollar, there is an increase in demand for the euro. This increases its value.

Among the factors influencing the course is the decision of the ECB on the problem states that are members of the Commonwealth and have large debts. Especially it concerns:

• Portugal,
• Greece,
• Spain,
• some other countries.

All of them have risen to a higher level of development through loans.

GNP growth, industrial production and unemployment.

Statement by the heads of financial institutions on the index of business expectations. For example, the receipt of information from the manager about the development of ways to stabilize the euro strengthens its position in the foreign exchange market.

Elections and political crises. These points often negatively affect the dynamics of the euro exchange rate due to their uncertainty. Geopolitical confrontations lead to a decrease in the rate of development, so the currency of all participants in the conflict begins to “sag”.

Why know the euro exchange rate

Many businessmen, heads of state and municipal entities are closely watching the ratio of the ruble to the euro. According to these data, analysts make a forecast that allows not only making profitable deals, but also investing money. The graph shows how the current state of affairs is changing at the present time.

Our service offers to study the purchase or sale of euros at the best prices, as well as. The best offers from the presenters are highlighted in yellow. The euro exchange rate online changes in the current time mode. But users can always:

• explore the archive
• see what changes are happening on the stock exchange,
• make your own prediction.

Of great importance are the observations of leading banks and investment funds. The market reaction to them may be different, regardless of how reliable the forecasts are.

Knowing the euro to ruble exchange rate is important not only for those who are looking for the most profitable option for investing money or for making a decision to take a loan. This information is useful for political scientists, economists or financiers. At the macroeconomic level, this knowledge makes it possible to fight inflation and lower interest rates. This contributes to the growth of production and the elimination of the consequences of unemployment.

We offer to find out the euro exchange rate for today in Russia. Information is provided in a convenient table that allows for a comparative analysis. All data is provided by banks, exchange offices. If you need to independently draw up a schedule, you can look into the archive yourself and see how the ratio of the ruble to the euro has changed recently.